Monday, September 11, 2006

Did 9/11 play a role in the housing boom?

From TheStreet.com:

Housing Rises in Terror's Wake

When the Twin Towers fell on Sept. 11, 2001, a glowing symbol of American capitalism was destroyed. Just a few months later, Americans were already talking about a new symbol of the nation's mighty wealth potential: the U.S. housing boom.

But could there have been a U.S. housing boom without the events of 9/11? It's a matter of much debate. What is clear is that certain factors that would lead to a real estate recovery were already in place before the attacks, most prominently the Nasdaq's plunge earlier that year.

Perahaps it's best, then, to say that without 9/11, there would have been a recovery in the housing market, which was in a funk in 2000 and the first half of 2001. But the terror attacks unleashed a series of policy actions that insted spurred a boom.

Most experts agree that the U.S. housing boom was caused by a confluence of factors set in motion in 2001 -- including very low mortgage rates and a newfound desire for tangible assets like real estate.

"In terms of the nationwide housing market boom, certainly the interest rate declines helped," says Lawrence Yun, an economist with the National Association of Realtors. "But there is also some element that is hard to quantify. In more uncertain times, people prefer having a tangible asset."

It's a mistake, though, to think that 9/11 alone created these factors. In fact, the Nasdaq's plunge in the spring of 2001 first put the ball in motion for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the flight to hard assets after millions of Americans saw their paper wealth evaporate in the dot-com bust.

22 comments:

  1. For those fools that signed the bottom line you are toast but to prevent a few last Dummies to sign up for monthly slavery-bankruptcy listen to this.

    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot
    .com/

    ReplyDelete
  2. Richard,

    UK is a house of cards.

    I lost money on a flat in London.

    SAS

    ReplyDelete
  3. This is not the UK.
    Take the emotion out of the analysis and it becomes quite apparent things are overinflated anyway you look at it.

    2007 ARM resets are going to be disastrous to these folks.

    Future home demand has been soaked up so that many sellers will have to battle for the dwindling number of buyers left standing. With the buyer sentiment shifting, sellers will be giving alot to move those properties.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Richard said...
    anon 1:04pm, "bubble believers may all be wrong in the end."

    I certainly may be wrong. I try to judge any market on the fundamentals and technicals of that particular market. One ominous technical aspect recently became apparent. Realty Trac was ranked the 53rd fastest growing private firm by INC magazine. Everybody has their own reasons for what they believe regarding this market. However, when foreclosures become a growth business, we should all conclude that the housing market is entering tumultous (saying it kindly) times.

    BC Bob

    ReplyDelete
  5. http://flippersintrouble.
    blogspot.com/

    take a look at these losers.

    ReplyDelete
  6. "let's all hope no matter what happens the pain is minimal even if people 'deserve it' due to their ignorance or stupidity."

    It's going to be minimal for many people who acted rational and prudent. The dummies are going to be pummeled for their idiotic behavior. They have been fooled into believing they are well off.

    Well off is when you have NO debt and cash in the bank earning big interest. Not some show & Teller looking like a hotshot but up to their eyeballs in monthly payments.

    ReplyDelete
  7. "break even or lose a little" After the transactions cost these bozos are going to lose a lot. And as the market is dropping like a rock.

    The exit doors have nearly closed.

    ReplyDelete
  8. "The exit doors have nearly closed."

    9/11/2006 03:50:40 PM

    I believe that they ARE closed. The herd is trapped, the market sucked them all in and there is no room to maneuver. The only questions I have is how long/severe.

    BC Bob

    ReplyDelete
  9. ok folks heres one in PA.
    Zillow for some reason show this property as $725k worth. Note that the owner bought it for 385k in 2002 and is now trying to sell for $640k.

    Wife is very interested, i dont think the property is worth more that 469k based on a 5% YOY increment on original sales price..

    thoughts?
    http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?city=LANGHORNE+&state=PA&zprop=9070221

    ReplyDelete
  10. I'd suggest that you ignore Zillow.

    grim

    ReplyDelete
  11. WESTFIELD TOWN, NJ? 07090
    MLS ID#: 2316012

    Another greey seller:
    Sold: 1/2005 $760000
    Now ask for $910000

    ReplyDelete
  12. Keep us posted on this greedy grubbing seller.
    A perfect lesson in greed and chasing the market down.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Clifton: A Ramapo Indian word

    it means sewer water debris from Paterson caught in the valley below Upper Montaclair

    ReplyDelete
  14. 9/11 alone certainly didn't create these factors...

    ReplyDelete
  15. http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/news_columnists/article/0,1299,DRMN_86_4983839,00.html

    Great article, not in NJ, but it could

    ReplyDelete
  16. What 9/11 did was to force Greenspan to cut rates to their lowest imaginable levels and to justify keeping them at that level for far longer than was necessary. For 36 months, Fedfunds rates were under 2%. This enabled an entire new class of Toxic mortgages to evolve which ensnared gullible, unsophisticated buyers into taking misguided risks. Had 9/11 not taken place, then maybe Greenspan would not have lowered rates to below 3%. Maybe all we would have had was a hot market due to comparatively lower Long term rates, but not a bubble due to teasor toxics.

    EconRealist

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  17. Richard,

    I'm not sure I buy into your viewpoint.

    There are a number of towns and areas in New Jersey that were once considered "elite" communities, East Side Park in Paterson, Plainfield, Branchbrook Park in Newark, portions of Passaic, etc.

    These were all highly desirable communities in their day.

    What happened?

    grim

    ReplyDelete
  18. As well as portions of East Orange, Irvington, etc.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Other than the '67 riots of course.

    (sorry for the split reply).

    grim

    ReplyDelete
  20. Other than the '67 riots of course.

    (sorry for the split reply).

    grim

    ReplyDelete
  21. Look at it this way, without them, the boom wouldn't have happened at all. A 6 figure income, say, oh, 130k/year, spending no more that 1/3rd gross on housing cost, on a traditional loan (20% down, 6.2%, 30yr fixed), would only be able to get a $500k home.

    Lets do something closer to median like $80k/year, thats a $300k home. That will barely, BARELY buy you a 1 bedroom condo-converted apartment in the San Francisco Bay Area.

    But change that to an interest only loan with a 4% teaser rate, and the amount becomes $470k. Big difference.

    Without the relaxed lending standards, you would have never gotten this huge bubble.

    ReplyDelete
  22. I would say the entire state
    is in decline.

    White flight along with company
    flight.

    Go now to any MV office or
    SSI office , take a look around.

    NJ is now a welfare state,the
    delcine is rapid.

    And many towns are like third world
    towns.

    ReplyDelete