Friday, September 30, 2005

September Inventory Skyrockets

September inventory numbers are in! Since I do my data gathering around noon each day, I'm going to post this data up a bit earlier than I was planning. I'd still like to wait until sometime after close of business tonite to tally up the sales data for the month, just to be sure the last minute additions make into the stats (I don't want to be accused of somehow doctoring or being selective about my stats).

For new readers, I define Northern New Jersey as the following counties: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren (Sorry, Middlesex numbers weren't included this month).

Now, I admit I was expecting a jump in numbers, but by the half way point I knew my guess was way off. So here it is, without further ado, the figures please..

10.5%

Yes, 10.5% increase in active listings on GSMLS in one single month. Why? Are more people listing? Are fewer selling? Unfortunately, I wish I had access to the database to run some more complex queries and stats, but I don't. If anyone would like to make that data available to me, I'd love to see it. Anyhow, back to the topic at hand, it looks like the jump was a bit of both. Last minute sellers trying to catch the bandwagon before it's long gone, and a serious drop in sales in the September numbers (you'll need to wait until tomorrow to see those).

So lets see the numbers (Counties include: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren).

9/1/2005 - 11405
9/30/2005 - 12612

There was a steady rise each day, with only a single day drop. I think the graph can help illustrate the trend.




It's hard to argue that prices will remain stable with supply increasing at this rate. If this trend continues there will be significant pricing pressure on sellers in the near future. I expect this trend to continue through the winter months as we're heading into the winter sales slump. While I don't believe we'll see large price changes in a short period of time (due to both buyer and seller psychology), I do believe we're past the peak of this parabola. Nowhere to go now but down.

Buyers, please don't feel like somehow you are going to be 'priced out' or are 'missing the boat'. If you buy at this point you are the greater fool. Don't be pressured into a sale by your agent, family, or friends. Believe me when I tell you that you have nothing to gain and everything to lose.

Caveat Emptor!
-grim

26 Comments:

Blogger MazNJ said...

My math is rusty but .... 10.583% monthly increase is an annualized increase of 234.4%? Buhahahahahaha. I'm sure someone will find a way to spin that.

9/30/2005 01:29:00 PM  
Blogger transmissionfluid said...

That's great news (for us would-be homeowners). I think that there will be a great deal of suspense to see what buyers do come the spring. However, like all bubbles, there will be millions of people rushing to cash out. 2006 should be very interesting. We are hoping to buy late in 2006, so it will be a lot of fun to watch.

9/30/2005 01:49:00 PM  
Blogger NJGal said...

We're also hoping to buy late in 2006. Do you think that will be a smart time to buy? I admit to having some fear of being the person who buys in the first downturn, only to see prices drop further, but also have a healthy fear of NOT buying at a good time (and I'm not talking about perfectly timing the market for the lowest point) and seeing prices rise like mad again.

9/30/2005 03:12:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Like everyone else, my wife and I would love to jump into a home right now, but we're going to hold off. Hold off until when? Until we feel we can get the home we want at a price we can comfortably afford.

As realistic buyers, we're looking for the long haul, not short term. We're looking for a home we want to live in, not one we're just settling for temporarily.

If we catch the bottom, that's just icing on the cake, were not trying to time the market here. However, I refuse to be left holding the bag on a dump we paid overpaid for.

Until then we (my wife and I, the dog and the fish) are happy renters.

-grim

9/30/2005 03:26:00 PM  
Blogger transmissionfluid said...

We are looking to buy a permanent home, keep it for 20-30 years. I am not looking to get in at THE bottom. I just don't like having to bid up prices, as the case has been around here the last few years. It will take time for the psychology of sellers and the general public to change. By late next year, I think more people will be talking like we are now. It takes time, and as many people have said, this bubble is all about psychology. The true bottom probably won't be for another few years. Having lived through the dot com bubble front row center, I see so many similarities in people's psychology. Most are in for a rude awakening. Those big screen TV's cost money.

9/30/2005 03:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The market is turning down right now.Next year we will be in full blown correction mode whereby sellers will be accepting much lower prices. Although many that have owned a house for 6+ years are probably not at risk of losing money but their past paper profits will evaporate.
Problem is getting accurate information from an industry that spins and manipulates the data.

10/04/2005 05:59:00 AM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

My prediction? Housing bubble will let out some gas starting 10/17 after the new Bankruptcy law is enacted (including the new Credit card regulation).

And I believe that there will be a rapid drop in the price next Spring to Summer. After that price will slowly decrease for another year and will stagnate for a year or two. I believe that the NNJ housing price will drop between 20%-30% within next 2-3 years.

10/04/2005 07:06:00 AM  
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4/18/2006 09:40:00 PM  
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4/26/2006 01:58:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

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5/14/2006 08:57:00 AM  
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6/20/2006 01:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

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6/21/2006 10:40:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

. Never Stay In Your House With House Hunters: Let the agent handle it, and remove yourself if possible. Remember that the Realtor� has worked many hours with these people, and knows what they're looking for, and how to work with them. Let the Realtor� do the job without interference.You may feel that an agent isn't showing the important features of your home to the prospect, but the agent knows people aren't sold by details until they've become emotionally involved with the "big picture" of your home. The presence of any member of the seller's family can't help. It always unnerves possible buyers. It often prevents a sale.
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6/21/2006 10:52:00 AM  
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Hint #6 for . Clutter will clog a sale: Display the full value of your space by removing all unnecessary articles. Consider storing things you don't need all the time.

6/21/2006 01:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

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6/22/2006 11:39:00 AM  
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6/22/2006 05:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hint #3 for . Let The Sun Shine In: Open draperies and curtains and let the prospect see how cheerful your home can be. Dark rooms do not appeal. One trick which always seems to work is to replace 60-watt bulbs with 100-watt bulbs, and have your Realtor� turn them all on, even for a daytime showing (and off again after the showing).

6/22/2006 05:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

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6/23/2006 01:08:00 PM  
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6/23/2006 02:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You can do a lot to For example, curb appeal sells: do some landscaping. Plant some flowers. Remember that the front door greets buyers. Make sure it offers potential a bright, warm welcome.

6/24/2006 01:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

. Pets Underfoot? Keep them out of the way ... preferably out of the house. Many people are acutely uncomfortable around animals. Nothing can stop a sale faster than man's best friend, wagging its friendly tail at a prospect with an allergy.
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6/25/2006 12:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You can do a lot to For example, curb appeal sells: do some landscaping. Plant some flowers. Remember that the front door greets buyers. Make sure it offers potential a bright, warm welcome.

6/26/2006 09:05:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

. Never Stay In Your House With House Hunters: Let the agent handle it, and remove yourself if possible. Remember that the Realtor� has worked many hours with these people, and knows what they're looking for, and how to work with them. Let the Realtor� do the job without interference.You may feel that an agent isn't showing the important features of your home to the prospect, but the agent knows people aren't sold by details until they've become emotionally involved with the "big picture" of your home. The presence of any member of the seller's family can't help. It always unnerves possible buyers. It often prevents a sale.
Go here for more ideas.

6/27/2006 04:23:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hint #3 for . Let The Sun Shine In: Open draperies and curtains and let the prospect see how cheerful your home can be. Dark rooms do not appeal. One trick which always seems to work is to replace 60-watt bulbs with 100-watt bulbs, and have your Realtor� turn them all on, even for a daytime showing (and off again after the showing).

6/28/2006 07:43:00 PM  
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6/30/2006 04:26:00 AM  

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