Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales are in..
The spin doctors are busy spinning, but the numbers really are bittersweet, Existing Home Sales did not drop as expected but stayed on par with last months adjusted numbers. Sales are still very strong. Keep in mind that the EHS numbers are lagging indicators, they reflect market activity of approximately 2 months ago.
Existing Home Sales
However, most interestingly, and this is the data point you will not see in the cheerleader pieces is that the median home price dropped this month.
Yes, home prices have dropped slightly (although I hate median numbers, so take it with a grain of salt).
Northeast
August 254,000
September 245,000 (~3% drop)
National
August 220,000
September 212,000 (~3% drop)
So, there you have my spin on the issue. True, we've clocked in at the same rapid pace we saw last month, however, we are also noting a 3% drop in home prices over that period. So is the knife falling? I'll let you make that decision.
Caveat Emptor,
Grim
The spin doctors are busy spinning, but the numbers really are bittersweet, Existing Home Sales did not drop as expected but stayed on par with last months adjusted numbers. Sales are still very strong. Keep in mind that the EHS numbers are lagging indicators, they reflect market activity of approximately 2 months ago.
Existing Home Sales
However, most interestingly, and this is the data point you will not see in the cheerleader pieces is that the median home price dropped this month.
Yes, home prices have dropped slightly (although I hate median numbers, so take it with a grain of salt).
Northeast
August 254,000
September 245,000 (~3% drop)
National
August 220,000
September 212,000 (~3% drop)
So, there you have my spin on the issue. True, we've clocked in at the same rapid pace we saw last month, however, we are also noting a 3% drop in home prices over that period. So is the knife falling? I'll let you make that decision.
Caveat Emptor,
Grim
13 Comments:
Median Home Price, August Versus September. Declines noted in ~%.
National
Aug 220,000
Sep 212,000 (~3%)
Northeast
Aug 254,000
Sep 245,000 (~3%)
Midwest
Aug 176,000
Sep 175,000 (~0.5%)
South
Aug 189,000
Sep 184,000 (~2%)
West
Aug 327,000
Sep 302,000 (~7%)
Oh yea, Consumer Confidence tanked below estimates again. I almost feel sorry for the retailers this Christmas. At least we can look forward to good post x-mas sales this year.
Spin spin!
grim
This is definitely a strong report. I think we may have to wait for another month or 2 to see weakness. I was expecting greater inventory, a greater downward revision.
In NJ proper, we know that there is a large pile-up of inventory in some towns. Some towns are still selling well though.
Not so strong, only spun that way.
Take good note of the inventory numbers as well. There is an increase of inventory of 19.6% over last year. And the months supply looks to be trending higher.
Even more interesting is the median drop, looks like median prices dropped back down to May levels
Also, if the sales rate falls off even a little bit, the actual number of months required to sell will jump.
I saw the letter by the realtor in the Record as well. It was not so subtle way to apply pressure to the Record.
That realtor's misleading information does need to be addressed. I was tempted to write a letter in response to it, but papers rarely publish rejoinders to letters.
She than goes on to pontificate about how BErgen county becasue of its proximity to NYC, rapidly disappearing land, and increase in immigration
She also mentioned job growth, which is pretty weak actually. One should ask her whether Bergen county has gotten nearer to NYC since 2002 (prices up 50-80%), and if the fact that many areas like Edgewater are building high rise condos and townhomes on old factory sites means that they've learned to use space available for building higher density.
To get the NJ data we need to wait for the 3rd Quarter NJAR statistics.
http://www.njar.com/pressroom_statspub.shtml
I've been trying to wait patiently for that data to be published to the website. I believe that data has been released to Realtors already, as I've seen quotes in the media that quote median changes more recently than Q3.
Unfortunately, this data doesn't show month to month changes, and median by county is only compared as YOY not monthly changes (spin again), so you need to keep all the reports for comparison.
grim
Q2 not Q3
Thanks for posting the condo data up, you are right, condos are typically the first to show weakness.
grim
I agree, the market as a whole is taking Bernanke as a sign of inflation to come.
10Y yield is up to 4.48, near it's resistance at 4.5. Perhaps we'll see it break through with these additional fears. I believe Gold is up for the same reason.
grim
There is quite on the calendar in the upcoming week, including the new home sales numbers..
10/27 New Home Sales
10/28 GDP #s
10/31 Consumer Spending/Saving
11/1 FOMC Policy Annoucement (~25-50 basis point rate hike)
grim
Dear Grim et al,
Just a comment to thank you for the very insightful and fact-based analysis and commentary on the developing RE Bubble. I've been reading your blog for a couple of weeks, and it's far more on target than most major financial pubs. Clearly local media are just not credible on this issue.
Also agree with the collective analysis represented in comments as it relates to the Fed, Helicopter Ben, Gold, growing pressures re: Spring market situation, etc.
Did someone already mention the article by Thomas Donlon in Barron's last issue? Very useful chart re: U.S. dollar's decline in purchasing power over the last 80 years. In effect a reminder that housing, at least one's principal residence, is at best a hedge against inflation over the long run. When housing has outpaced for so long, regression is inevitable.
I look forward to continued great reading and education on this blog. Thanks again!!
Steve,
I've been trying to get my hands on the article, any way you can post a link to it?
Grim
I have been following a site now for almost 2 years and I have found it to be both reliable and profitable. They post daily and their stock trades have been beating
the indexes easily.
Take a look at Wallstreetwinnersonline.com
RickJ
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