Tuesday, January 24, 2006

FDU Survey Finds New Jersey Economic Outlook Deteriorating

From the Star Ledger:

Biz Buzz: Jerseyans not too thrilled with the economy

A survey by researchers at Fairleigh Dickinson University finds New Jersey residents are scaling back their expectations for the economy and for their own economic well-being.

"Their enthusiasm about future prospects for their financial position and for business conditions in the state has been tempered by the events of the past year," says James Almeida, chairman of the department of marketing and entrepreneurial studies at FDU's Silberman College of Business.

Last year, 52 percent of those surveyed were bullish about their financial future, but this time it slipped to 42 percent. About 30 percent said they worry their finances will deteriorate during the next year, versus only 19 percent a year ago.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

17 Comments:

Blogger Metroplexual said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

1/24/2006 04:26:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

This is just evidence of the deteriorating economic base here in NJ actually being felt at the level of the common person. That Hughes and Seneca study in a previous post gives the data, this study gives the pulse.

IO loans, higher credit card minimum payments, higher fuel/energy cost and their uncertainties. Are taking away any cushion new homebuyers may have had in the last few years. Lifestyles will and are being crimped

I have noticed people being more frugal these days compared to even last year.

1/24/2006 04:28:00 PM  
Anonymous jmw977 said...

The thing I find most striking is that the supermarkets have been relatively quiet for the past several months. Not a good sign when people are avoiding grocery shopping.

1/24/2006 08:27:00 PM  
Blogger Richie said...

Hmm, by me the grocery store is always packed (Shop Rite in Lincoln Park).. can't say that i've seen a slowdown there.. But then again, we usually shop when there's huge sales, so maybe that's why I'm a bit misled..

1/24/2006 09:06:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

1/24/2006 09:17:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Shoprite of Lincoln Park is one of the better supermarkets around. Beats anything here in Clifton :)

1/24/2006 09:18:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

An idea of how these perceptions stack up against national trends? I think this report is interesting, but I would like to know how these perspectives compare with the rest of the country.

Also, I have some level of familiarity with the Bloustein School, but not so much FDU. Do you (maybe metroplexual) have any sense of any political motivation behind the FDU report? When taken with the Hughes & Seneca report I am getting the impression that Corzine is looking to do some "baselining". "Look how I turned things around in the last 4 years". If he is smart, he will also reach out more to the business community and stop the job hemorrhaging.

1/24/2006 09:33:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Here is the link to the actual study:

http://tinyurl.com/agylb

Also in the Study (specific to housing):

- The refinancing train has left the station! Although one in six respondents refinanced their homes in the past year, only 6% expect to do so this year.

- The bubble deflates, but doesn't pop! Last year, 81% of New Jerseyans expected housing prices to increase in their neighborhood. This year, however, that number fell to 55%. Twenty-eight percent of Garden State residents surveyed expect housing prices to decrease this upcoming year

1/24/2006 09:49:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

1/24/2006 10:03:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

1/24/2006 10:04:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Last post, I promise, but I think this worth pointing out from the report:

Question: During the next 12 months (Poll taken each January), do you think that housing prices in your area (of NJ) will go up or go down?
____2006___2005___2004___2003
Up__ 55%___ 81%____80%____70%
Same_12%_____4%____11%____12%
Down_28%____10%_____6%____15%

Wow! Big change in January 2006 over previous years

1/24/2006 10:08:00 PM  
Anonymous JMW977 said...

Hey, rentinginnj

I wanted to say thanks for the heads up about the NJTO. I signed up with them last week and they were VERY helpful. I explained my situation (4 family in Clifton being demolished for new 2 families) and they told me that the owner has absolutely no right to evict. Period. They also gave me the names of four good landlord/tenant lawyers, which I definitely plan to pursue. Thanks again!

1/24/2006 10:24:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

I don't know much about FDU's agenda. But if they did the survey well it can be taken as a true sentiment. BTW I used to do polling for Gallup and there are ways to skew the poll if you are the caller but by and large they are pretty accurate.

1/25/2006 07:22:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

NJ economy is highly reliant on pharmaceutical, telecom/tech RE/Construction and Finance/Banking.
We all know the huge downsizing in telecom and tech. Now it's pharmaceutical companies. i expect Schering plough and Bristol Myeres to be merged so there goes huge number of layoffs.
As Real estate continues to weaken banking and construction will suffer.
It it very likely based on stagnant wages consolidating weakening industries along with increasing energy and property taxes that the NJ resident is getting squeezed. Hosue prices will come down substantially to bring affordabilty back in to norm.

1/25/2006 08:17:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

I found their website and previous polls taken.


http://publicmind.fdu.edu/index.html

Here is their mission statement:

The mission of Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind is to advance public discourse by publicizing interesting and controversial data and analyses.
In addition to its public polls, Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind is available to conduct, analyze, and interpret survey and other research for corporations, non-profit entities, university faculty, researchers, and local, county, state, and federal government organizations.
PublicMind surveys international, national, regional, and specialized populations on local, state, national, and global issues.
We integrate our polls and research with resident faculty experts and professors, as well as a broad range of highly specialized academic associates all of whom are available for further analysis of data and interviews.
PublicMind has conducted well-publicized surveys on:

Presidential and New Jersey gubernatorial, Senate, and state legislative races,
Homeland security, terrorism, SARS, and disaster preparedness,
New Jersey’s state budget,
National energy policy,
Environmental attitudes,
Development and suburban sprawl
PublicMind:

created the New Jersey Index of Consumer Performance and Index of Consumer Intentions.
also hosts workshops for public officials on survey design, methodology, and analysis.
PublicMind’s telephone field house partner is TMR Incorporated, a marketing/opinion research and data collection firm with offices in New Jersey, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and California. All TMR facilities have the capability for on-site and remote monitoring. All interviewing stations are equipped for CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). TMR's 200 interviewing stations are equipped with Query, CfMC and Results CATI software systems. Each facility is managed by an experienced telephone research professional and has a full complement of supervisors and editors.

Read some of their poll results and decide for your self what their bias is. I personally think it is to be a booster of the state.

1/25/2006 08:50:00 AM  
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4/19/2006 12:00:00 AM  

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