Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Northern NJ Weekly Residential Inventory Update

GSMLS
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)
2/15 - 12,376
2/22 - 12,597 (1.8% Increase, ~14% since January 1st)

NJMLS
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)
2/15 - 5,960
2/22 - 6,078 (2% Increase, ~13% since January 1st)

MLSGuide
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)
2/15 - 2,054
2/22 - 2,078 (1.2% Increase ~20% since January 1st)

Inventory stats will be posted every week, prior to noon on Wednesday. The numbers will include all 3 of the Northern NJ MLS systems, GSMLS, NJMLS, and the Hudson MLS. If someone would like to provide me with numbers from the FSBO systems, I'll gladly include them as well. These numbers do not include multifamily homes, only SFH, Condos and Coops. Realize that this does make an impact in certain areas of North Jersey with high densities of multifamily (Hudson, Passaic, etc).

44 Comments:

Anonymous Gary said...

The wife and I went to a few open houses this past weekend in Bergen and Passaic Counties. Why are people buying these POS houses at these prices? I just don't get it. 600K for a piss smelling, outdated, filthy split level. I guess I'm missing something.

What a shame how people are getting gouged. Just refuse, you're better off renting.

2/22/2006 01:17:00 PM  
Blogger chaoticchild said...

RE prices in NY Metro area are ridiculous. It is impossible to for first time home buyer to purchase. The only ways are creative financing and family money.

2/22/2006 02:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We are dying to know.

What are the realtors telling you when you go to the open houses?

Rosey predictions? Are they willing to hand over allot of information like when was the house bought and for how much?

I am going to get one of those loans!!!!

2/22/2006 02:26:00 PM  
Anonymous gary said...

I didn't get into specific details with the realtors, but they are definitely walking with their tails between their legs. A year or two ago, the BS was flying but not anymore. Still, the prices need to drop at least 20% for me to consider making a move.

2/22/2006 02:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This past weekend a realtor told me that she went to a seminar two weeks ago and learned that the Bubble will not burst this year, but could in 2007.

Okay, like that made we want to enter into a contract ASAP. Right sister, your dead wrong!

2/22/2006 02:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

WOW, ok so let me get this.

The bubble will burst next year. So buy this year??

Please tell me you are joking!!!

2/22/2006 02:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"This past weekend a realtor told me that she went to a seminar two weeks ago and learned that the Bubble will not burst this year, but could in 2007."

I heard the exact same story. Burgdorff?

2/22/2006 03:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wait, I still do not get it!!!

Why would someone buy something for say $800K that they can buy 12-18 months later at say $600K.

If you make $100K a year after taxes you have to work a few more years just to pay the difference.

Am I missing something here?

I got two offers for 106% loans and no money down. Maybe that is it!!


CDF

2/22/2006 03:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A report by Kern & Rogers in Wyckoff has formally named the generation-length, repeating cycle the "Grand Carousel" It's a bear market, followed by a recovery and then followed by a bull market. They state "Remember the 1987 bear market was preceded by a bull market...if the pattern holds we are due for a bear market." They are also stating this is a "more buyer-friendly" market but don't believe it will be as severe as the 1987 bear when prices dropped by 5.7% per year.

2/22/2006 03:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

CDF
You can't guarantee that prices will drop at all, let alone, that much, even if you are Nostradamus.

2/22/2006 03:28:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

3:28

Darn I only have hope.

No my point is this. They were told by a "professional" that the bubble will be next year. Therefore, it is like a broker selling a stock telling you it will fall in price.

I am not saying I can tell the future. I cannot , if I could WOW.

But, the point is someone it telling buyers the bubble will pop next year. Therefore , prices will go down. Therefore, buy now.

See what I mean.


CDF

2/22/2006 03:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, I see now.
But the realtors, who as a group are not very bright, think we won't read into it that way.

2/22/2006 04:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This past weekend a realtor told me that she went to a seminar two weeks ago and learned that the Bubble will not burst this year, but could in 2007."

I heard the exact same story. Burgdorff?

3:12 PM


Yes, it was Burgdorff. It could have been a Schweppette from Burgdorff

2/22/2006 04:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Sugee said...

A peice of land has come for sale in my town, Iselin, 100 by 150. Asking for 449K, I checked last price in Domania and taxrecords, and it says in both places that the same plot sold for 239.9K in Aug 03. What is this, a 100K increase (40% approx) every year ?

2/22/2006 04:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Inventory may be building up, but I'm also seeing houses go much quicker than they were in November/December. Sometimes idiots are paying really high prices as well. 2 houses I've bid on had other bidders as well (but I still bid below asking, no bidding wars from me).

So much as I would like to say that housing is very slow, I don;t think thats correct. Prices in Nov/Dec were actually down from early 2005, but now idiots overbidding have put prices back up spring 2005 levels.

Hopefully, an influx of inventory will drive prices down again.

2/22/2006 05:00:00 PM  
Blogger lisoosh said...

Overheard in supermarket: Two realtors complaining about their sellers. Properties are sitting on the market, single bids in months, tens of thousands under asking price (which the sellers are all refusing). Sellers are climbing the walls and the realtors are trying to convince them that their homes are "worth" whatever people are willing to pay while the sellers don't want to listen. Ha Ha.
Those realtors were not happy campers.

Inventory isn't climbing fast enough for me.

2/22/2006 05:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hahahaha!

The misery is climbing in the real estate world.
I hope these realtors and other blood suckers saved some money for the slowdown.
The pressure is going up. let'em sweat it out why you save money as they get deperate to sell. $200K - $300k is alot of money to save. on a $800K house which was going price just 3 years ago.
Make sure you are compensated for your time and patience.

2/22/2006 06:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would like to know the MLS for Ocean County. Realtors are saying prices will continue to grow, just not as fast as in the past, but don't expect any drop in house prices. My RE lawyer said the market is still strong at the Jersey Shore. I am out looking everyday. I see a lot of gross (total knock downs) homes way overpriced. It is approaching the "rental season" and I would love to know true market conditions for this area. I hope what I am hearing is last year's sales pitch. I cannot seem to get the truth out of any realtor.

2/22/2006 08:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon in Ocean county,

It's a safe bet that the trends in Northern NJ also apply to your area.

Things are changing, and have been since about June 2005.

If I were you, I'd rent that beach house for one more summer, and see how things look next year.

2/22/2006 08:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There's a house I've been watching in Bergen County.. Started at $599... then 584, then 564, now $554. At the open house the realtor said that when the house was at $599 they got a bid for $555 and didn't take it... Greedy sellers and a poor realtor in my opinion. But really, who wants a house with a granite built in barbeque when there's no garage and house needs a new roof!
But then around the corner there's a new listing for $619 for a tiny 3BR 1Bath cape, although large property. What's this realtor thinking listing at this price?

2/23/2006 09:46:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thank you for your advice. I am definitley looking for a rental as well as to buy. I will keep blog posted of any market conditions and realtor talk (not sure how true it will be) around the shore area.

2/23/2006 11:57:00 AM  
Blogger Corruption said...

People are paying 600K for a POS because in the NY/NJ/CT area you can easily get a job paying 100K.

I'm not just talking about just the high end jobs like banking and insurance... where else can you make $50 in half an hour cutting grass? Oh and by the way you don't have to actually do the work, go to the 7-11 and get someone to do it for you at $10 an hour.

If you have some $$$ buy a rental property in Paterson NJ, stuff it with immigrants, which are pouring into the US by the millions, then send them out to cut grass... You will pay off the house in 3 years or less.

2/23/2006 12:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

corruption - no thanks - you do that. That is just gross. It is a great idea if you want to continue to destroy our country. Maybe you can get a discount with Terminex and Food Stamps too. Is is possible you don't have children or very good taste?

2/23/2006 02:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Corruption? How is using immigrants to do day labor corruption? Maybe if teenagers would be willing to work for $10/hr we could fill the jobs with US Citizens, but we're too good to cut grass, shovel snow, etc. Its our own fault.

2/23/2006 03:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"People are paying 600K for a POS because in the NY/NJ/CT area you can easily get a job paying 100K."

But those same jobs paid "$100K" five years ago, when houses cost half as much.

2/23/2006 03:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who cares how much houses cost!!
If you can and want to buy one then do it, if you can't then don't.

If you're with the party that believes prices are going to drop hard then wait till they drop, the increase in interest rates and property tax will get you paying the same monthly amount anyway.

Can't you understand the math here.
A young couple both working in NYC together making 150-200K both own a single bed apartment. They meet fall in love sell their single beds. They make loads of money on the sales affording them a nicer bigger 4 room apartment. Years later they marry have kids and soon want a house in the Subs. They sell their apartment for 1 million, their mortgage is 300K profit is 700K combined income is 200K+. They come to NJ and find a 4 bed house for 900K and they think wow what a steal.

That's whats driving up prices!

2/23/2006 04:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


If you're with the party that believes prices are going to drop hard then wait till they drop, the increase in interest rates and property tax will get you paying the same monthly amount anyway.


Nonsense. The comment about property tax is irrelevant anyway. If interest rates increase, we can just pay down more of the mortgage. I at least can buy with 60% cash.

2/23/2006 08:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Cooment "who cares how much a house costs" You must be a Realtor or a seller!
Why else push to us buy? If you have no interest in the market what or when we buy shouldn't cause you concern...unless you have something to loose.

2/23/2006 10:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

TO: "Can't you understand the math here."

Excellent point! This is what I've been saying for years. Those who live in Manhattan and can't afford to "step up" come to NNJ where housing prices (even 30% inflated) are still a bargain....sadly.

2/24/2006 02:10:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Some people on this blog have zero tolerance for any point of view that doesn't reinforce their need to believe that the bubble will burst--actually accuse those that "dissent" to be [heaven forbid] Realtors! or others who want to "make" them buy.

Scary stuff .... but a fun way to waste time.

2/24/2006 02:11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Dissenter. Just another fast talker or off sopme facts why things continue as 50% of 1st time buyers put 0% down.

Not BS but FACTS.

FACTS are this:

People are leaving NJ
Property taxes are soaring
Housing Affordability is at record lows
NJ Large employers are struggling and laying off people
Health Insurance is out of control.(ever pay for your own before?)
INCOMES are stagnant

So go ahead dissenter chat it up. i'm listening.

2/24/2006 08:45:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

“People are leaving NJ”
Illegal Immigrants are not included in any stats.
Their numbers are estimated to be in the millions per year, they are coming to NJ… That’s a fact. What about the immigrants that are coming legally? Garfield NJ, might as well be Poland. Fairlawn, mini Russia etc… By the way immigrants bring over family members that never leave.

”Property taxes are soaring”
And Corzine gets voted in? Get ready for more taxes.
If people could not afford they would not pay.
Billion dollar school budgets pass uncontested and unquestioned!
The fire department in my town has more technology and equipment than
NASA.

”Housing Affordability is at record lows”
Home sales are at record highs? They’re unaffordable?
Who’s buying them then? How about the day laborer who makes $20/hr X 10/day X 6 days X 4 weeks = $4800/month, he teams up with a brother, ($9600/month tax free) they buy a 2 family in NNJ.
By the way housing affordability stats are nonsense. Recent stats of Atlantic City concluded homes are 50%+ overvalued. What they don’t tell you is that it’s based on the income of residents, most of which don’t own property. Now if they get the income data of the people who actually own the home that would be meaningful information.

”NJ Large employers are struggling and laying off people”
Large NJ Employers are run worse than government; fire the people at the top and you will see huge growth. Example, GM and Ford are being run to the ground yet their management makes big bucks? There is huge demand for all goods, record number of imports… do you look for a made in the USA label or the cheapest price? Cheap goods are
”Health Insurance is out of control.(ever pay for your own before?)”
I agree with you here… my suggestion is eat right exercise and save money.
I hate to sound raceist b

“INCOMES are stagnant”
Well it certainly depends on the field your in. I can tell you in Engineering and Medical incomes are NOT stagnant. Also skilled workers (plumber, electrician, mechanic etc...) are in demand and incomes are strong.

Since I'm not welcome this will be my last post but I can go on forever...

Regards
Dissenter, …so I’m called.

2/24/2006 11:17:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

dissenter - you must to be a realtor or seller - why else are you bitching about this blog. Go to a blog that blows hot air about how great real estate is doing, if you have such high hopes. Excuse the reasonable people for wanting to spend wisely. By the way, there are beautiful luxury condos being built in Wall starting at $900k in case your looking.

2/24/2006 11:21:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dissenter. You better start saving becasue yuo are tied to this irrational real esatte bubble in one way or another.

Immigrants. are not going to save the day. The facts are People are LEAVING the state!
You use Illiegals as a reason. This is laughable.

Property taxes are soaring! And they AIN"T going down! factor this in. Many are and are voting with their fee! taxes will become a HUGE factor in valuing a home in the future. This is not directed toward the 20% that are well off and make plenty of income. The other 80% are fighting to keep their heads above water. What the hell is $150k when you pay $800k for house and mtg is $600k taxes are $12-$15k maintenance is big with living expenses. This $150k is chump change. these people are surviviing on cashflow. Any disrution to this cashflow sends them down the pooper.People are moaning about taxes. As for the equipment who says they spend money wisely. Much of this is waste anyway. This is tax $'s being spent.
Locals drive an economy Not some outside investors. Cuz in the end locals are there for the long-term. Invesotrs and fleeting.
"Who’s buying them then? How about the day laborer who makes $20/hr X 10/day X 6 days X 4 weeks = $4800/month, he teams up with a brother, ($9600/month tax free) they buy a 2 family in NNJ."

HAHAHAHAH! This laborer will be out of a job soon as real estate slows down. Someone on this board pointed out that NNJ employment is HIGHLY dependent on real estate bubble going. IT"S NOT pal. Better accept it.
Affordability. Will you admit that 100% price increases are not irrational?
Look most people NOT rich guys like you make 2-3% increaes in income per year. This increase is getting absorbed by livings expenses. How does this account for escalating house prices?
Why are people using creative risky loans to buy? Becasue they can't really afford to buy. AFFORDABILITY IS AT RECORD LOWS. aDMIT IT!
Incomes are stagnant. Accept it. Even doctors have been under pressure last several years due to govt reimbursement cuts.
The fact is the median income has been flat for about 5 years.

THIS CRAZY HOUSING MARKET HAS BEEN BUILT ON GREED FOOLS AND FUNNY MONEY.
Just spoke to a guy recently. owned his house for 20 years. Worth about $500k at current inflatrd prices. Said he is having hard time keeping up. heating bills and taxes are hurting him s and his mtg is $1400 a month. This guy could never ever step into his current house at $5000k. I suspect this is true for the majority of current homeowners.
I am a homeowner, but this market is crazy and stupid. I feel badly for younger people who are paying all the bills for older people grabbing as much as they can.

2/24/2006 01:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Watch the behavior of realtors now. Remember back in 1992 looking at houses and it was pretty dead then. A Realty would call me 2-3 times a week. Visited an open house back then and once yuo got on the list the relators would hound you until you told them off. They were desperate back then. In this period buyer's had the upper hand just like greedy seelers and realtors had just last summer. IT WAS A GREAT FEELING sticking it to'em! could. Looking forward to the good old days.

2/24/2006 01:35:00 PM  
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4/19/2006 12:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If I spent as much time working on my own real estate sites as I do slogging thru blogging, I'd probably make more money. But I enjoy a good read. Thanks for the break. Stop by my site if you can.

4/24/2006 12:24:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

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