Cendant CEO Doesn't Believe The Realtors
From Inman:
Cendant may consider other options if spin-off plans fizzle
Company expects real estate business to be flat in '06
If Cendant Corp. plans for spinning off its massive real estate franchise and company-owned brokerage business as a separate publicly traded company fall flat, the company might consider other options, CEO and chairman Henry Silverman said today during a discussion of the company's first-quarter earnings.
He did not rule out the potential for a private sale of the company's real estate segment, which re-branded this year as Realogy, or other business segments that the company plans to spin-off as separate companies. Silverman, who will serve as chairman and CEO for the first 18 months of the spin-off real estate company, prefaced the comment with a statement that there is no plan at this time to sell off the real estate business.
...
He also said that Cendant's real estate business should be roughly flat this year, with some improvement expected in the second half of the year.
...
In its first-quarter earnings announcement, Cendant announced that transaction volume dropped 10 percent for its franchise business and 6 percent for company-owned business compared to first-quarter 2005, and total revenue for franchise and company-owned business dropped slightly while earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, fell 25 percent compared to first-quarter 2005. The first quarter is typically slow for the real estate industry, with most profits coming during the second and third quarters of the year, Silverman said.
...
While the National Association of Realtors released existing-home sales data this week that showed an improving market from February to March, Silverman said he is unconvinced that the market is getting better at this time. "I'm not sure the (association) data is terribly relevant. They typically sample only 20 percent of MLSs and then they adjust those numbers with a number of variables. I think that with 30 percent of the market -- as we believe we have at least on price and size in terms of dollar volume -- statistically you could argue we are the market."
He added, "So our results are more likely to be accurate as to the market than whatever (the association) is projecting or ... has reported."
------------------
For those who don't know who Cendant is, I'll give you a hint... They own Century 21, Coldwell Banker, ERA Real Estate, and Sotheby's International Realty.
It's rather suprising that the CEO of Cendant doesn't put much weight on the National Association of Realtors numbers.. They only 20% of the market and adjusting "those numbers with a number of variables"? I can see why he wouldnt. I wonder just who gets to pick which markets are sampled?
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
Cendant may consider other options if spin-off plans fizzle
Company expects real estate business to be flat in '06
If Cendant Corp. plans for spinning off its massive real estate franchise and company-owned brokerage business as a separate publicly traded company fall flat, the company might consider other options, CEO and chairman Henry Silverman said today during a discussion of the company's first-quarter earnings.
He did not rule out the potential for a private sale of the company's real estate segment, which re-branded this year as Realogy, or other business segments that the company plans to spin-off as separate companies. Silverman, who will serve as chairman and CEO for the first 18 months of the spin-off real estate company, prefaced the comment with a statement that there is no plan at this time to sell off the real estate business.
...
He also said that Cendant's real estate business should be roughly flat this year, with some improvement expected in the second half of the year.
...
In its first-quarter earnings announcement, Cendant announced that transaction volume dropped 10 percent for its franchise business and 6 percent for company-owned business compared to first-quarter 2005, and total revenue for franchise and company-owned business dropped slightly while earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, fell 25 percent compared to first-quarter 2005. The first quarter is typically slow for the real estate industry, with most profits coming during the second and third quarters of the year, Silverman said.
...
While the National Association of Realtors released existing-home sales data this week that showed an improving market from February to March, Silverman said he is unconvinced that the market is getting better at this time. "I'm not sure the (association) data is terribly relevant. They typically sample only 20 percent of MLSs and then they adjust those numbers with a number of variables. I think that with 30 percent of the market -- as we believe we have at least on price and size in terms of dollar volume -- statistically you could argue we are the market."
He added, "So our results are more likely to be accurate as to the market than whatever (the association) is projecting or ... has reported."
------------------
For those who don't know who Cendant is, I'll give you a hint... They own Century 21, Coldwell Banker, ERA Real Estate, and Sotheby's International Realty.
It's rather suprising that the CEO of Cendant doesn't put much weight on the National Association of Realtors numbers.. They only 20% of the market and adjusting "those numbers with a number of variables"? I can see why he wouldnt. I wonder just who gets to pick which markets are sampled?
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
84 Comments:
Grim - Thank you so much for this post! You call a spade, a spade and that is how it should be.
I was sick over the "reports"/ lies, that were released the other day. I know they aren't fact or honest, but it is all those idiots who believe it still that make house hunting a nightmare. I am waiting patiently for the day I can walk into a decent house with a decent price and feel good about buying.
bh
They just about have all of CA's market as well. They also own Burgdorff. My understanding is
Century 21 is a franchise they own. Also they are a NJ based company (Parsippany). A few of their employees live near me.
Grim, that's a GREAT post, thanks.
This statement is so important and key... because it truly does tells not only about the disconnect between data and reality but also shows us the real difference between an unregulated trade group and a gaap certified, publicly traded company.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
grim:
So I am out of the office yesterday at the FPA-NJ spring conference. It was an interesting and well-attended meeting, with people milling about everywhere and moving from room to room.
Finally, everyone gathers in a central room for lunch. The speaker is Terri Cullen, who is a columnist for the WSJ, and she focuses on web-based content. She happens to live in Monmouth County, and mentions items in her columns from time to time that relate to the area in which I work. She was a good speaker and focused most of her presentation on the feedback she receives from the public [global responses]. All very interesting and pertinent for me.
Anyway, about midway through lunch, I turn away from the podium to grab some coffee and notice a guy at the next table who looks really familiar. It’s creepy. Who is this guy? He is older, kind of a pallid face, mostly expressionless, and stoic.
I am horrible with names and faces, and so I was straining. #1 – who is this guy? #2 why on earth would he be familiar to me?
I am trying to be subtle and stare across to see his name tag. I can’t make it out. Wait. Six letters. Starts with a …….W.
W…..Warren?
Warren Boroson?
He looks EXACTLY like his picture on the website.
Anyway, I’m thinking I have to go over there, introduce myself and talk to him.
Terri keeps moving along in her presentation. She gets to the topic of the real estate bubble, and she goes on and on about it. Mentioning how much concern is reflected in the feedback from her readers. Also, how much this issue is discussed in the halls of the Dow Jones offices [publisher of the WSJ]. Everyone over there is convinced that a tsunami is on the horizon, even though it absolutely is not reflected in the coverage of the paper.
I feel like a complete jerk, but I keep turning to glance a WB, and he is appears oblivious, just staring down into his dessert.
Fine, I was absolutely going to go over there and strike up a conversation, but my maturity got the better of me. I was with my colleagues, and some other people I was trying to network with, so I couldn’t afford to indulge my sense of entertainment.
Anyway, I tried to explain the story to my wife, but her reaction was “ok – yeah – I guess that's pretty funny.” Sigh. :(
Well – I hope you [and everyone else] think this is hilarious. I really regret not being able to talk to him, but there just wasn’t the chance.
Thanks for giving me a big laugh. I’ve been having a rough week, and this help lighten it up a lot.
Warm Regards,
chicago
You should have walked up to him and said: "Hi, I'm Grim."
JM
Listen to the phoney politicians complain about hihg energy prices.
WHERE ARE THE COMPLAINTS ABOUT INSANE HOUSE PRICES????????????
DO NOT BUY A HOUSE NOW.
AVOID THEM UNTIL THEY REALLY DROP IN PRICE.
WHY AREN'T THEY CALING FOR THE HOMEBUILDER EXECS TO STOP RIPPING OFF BUYERS????????????????
Grim-
I think we are reaching the point where people are going to start doing weird things, like massage numbers, to make things appear better than they are. You pointed out that they have started to use month-to-month numbers vs. YOY numbers. I'm sure they are grasping for whatever they can to make this look less drastic.
It will take sometime after the fact to know when the bottom really fell out and by then no one will remember how laughable NAR's numbers were.
JM
You should have walked up to him and said: "Hi, I'm Grim."
JM
Funny sh.., got me to laugh out loud!
CF,
Great story, as I was reading through I was sure you were going to approach him. I can understand why you didn't, I don't think I would have given those circumstances.
grim
"Listen to the phoney politicians complain about hihg energy prices.
WHERE ARE THE COMPLAINTS ABOUT INSANE HOUSE PRICES?"
Exactly, people are whining about havng to spend an extra $10-20 a month on gas, when houses cost an extra few hundred thousand dollars.
6.58 % 30 tear mtg rate.
Highest in 4 years.
Rates of gone up about 25%.
Home prices need to start dropping by 25% + as rates continue to move up.
Do not lock yourself into serfdom.
6.58% 30 Year Mtg.
Rates have gone up alot in last year.
Home prices needs to go down alot for this increase.
Hilarious, Chicago!
A house we tried to buy last summer just closed, finally, for about $25,000 less than we offered for it last August (back then we lowballed by about 10 percent, but the sellers sniffed). Another house we thought about bidding on last summer recently closed for $100,000 less than the original asking price. These were in the $500-650 range, so these drops represent a significant percentage.
My mother in law, who is an agent in central jersey, says business is v e r y s l o w ...
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/155257609.html
You have to read this:
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/154310997.html
$3000000 - Summit's best house
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reply to: hous-154310997@craigslist.org
Date: 2006-04-24, 10:37PM EDT
Here's why you want to buy my house:
1) Save $150,00+. ... I'm going to list my house in 4-6 weeks. (I've already got a realtor ... and she's veryyyy good). If you buy it 6 weeks from now it will cost you $3,150,000. Frankly, I'd rather not pay the commission. Useful data points: the house across the street is listed for $4.75 million (see it at realtor.com ... just type in Summit NJ and go to the last page). Another house down the street is listed at $3.65 million. ... I've seen both houses. My house feels more like a home. It's grand but at a more appropriate scale.
2)Buy the BEST house in Summit. ... After buying the house I put $2 million into it. Here's just some of what you get: A new house (from the electric, to the plumbing to the HVAC) within the shell of an 1880 shingle style house with a huge wrap-around front porch. the large family/kitchen room is -- I'll guarantee -- the best in Summit. The billiard room is a great retreat. The sun room is romantic. The mater bedroom's 2 person shower and sitting room is beautiful (did I say romantic?). Also the 5 working firelaces give a great backdrop for get-togethers.
And YES, it's non-standard to put his on craigslist but ... for someone looking for a primo house (and a deal) send me an e-mail. Needless to say, serious inquiries only. AND NO realtors.
"$3000000 - Summit's best house"
If the house is so great, why did he keep the address secret?
The "house across the street for $4.75M" is 26 Ridge Road and they paid $33,096 in taxes last year. What a freakin' living room $4.75M buys though:
http://pictures.gsmls.com/MediaDisplay/76/hr3520776-2.jpg
That's definitely a nice part of Summit, but most 1880s homes like the one on CraigsList are better off getting bulldozed.
The construction then was before any building codes existed, the basements are abysmal caves and deteriorating, and the ceilings are usually so low you can easily touch them. Then there's settling and such...
"Couldn't they spring a little more for radiant or baseboard heating?"
Forced hot air heating is nice because the ducts can also pump central air during the summer.
Check out this CraigsList house in West Orange:
Apr- 2 $699,000 - Immaculate, Fully Renovated 3BR ( possible 4th)/3BTH in St. Cloud (West Orange) pic
$10,000 price drop 5 days later:
Apr- 7 $689,000 - OPEN HOUSE -- Fully Renovated 3BR ( possible 4th)/3BTH in St. Cloud (West Orange) pic
$20,000 price drop 13 days later, ad now in ALL UPPER CASE LETTERS:
Apr-20 $669,000 - OPEN HOUSE -- IMMACULATE 3+BR/3 BTH RENOVATED (West Orange) pic
Still no suckers entering the ponzi scheme 7 days later:
Apr-27 $669,000 - OPEN HOUSE -- Immaculate 3+BR/3BTH (West Orange) pic
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/155196245.html
It's not every day you see a bathroom with a spiral staircase:
http://publicstage.gsmls.marketlinx.com/templates/media.asp?Uid=3520776&MlsNum=2217288
(triple-click long links to select)
This is the "house across the street for $4.75M".
Here's an interesting house in Summit.
MLS #: 2253314
34 Montrose Avenue
Domania.com shows that the house closed in Feb 2006 @ $440,000.
The flipper then put the house on the market ONLY WEEKS LATER on March 3rd at $619K. A sucker took the bait, and the house went into contract after listed only a few days. The buyer apparently decided not to be a sucker, and the house came back on the market a few days later.
The flipper, apparently excited at how "hot" the market was, and how fast the house went into contract the first time, put it back on the market priced $10,000 higher @ $629K.
Apparently no action at $629K.
Then some lowballs must have come in, so now they've raised the price another $10,000 to $639K. Apparently they hope to find a sucker, "negotiate" down $20,000 to the original $619K, and end up back where they began.
Good luck with that.
The listing does not mention any renovations, and the photos simply show a newly-painted house.
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1056339126
Next week the it will have been on the market 60 days.
Everyone is forgetting...in the meltdown Summit houses won't go down in value. Why ? because its special...and I suspect the naive imbecile who posted that belief here not too long ago, went long 1 Summit house sometime in the last 5 years...the exact period of time that history will prove to have been the worst to go long any house in NNJ and/or NY and/or CA and/or FL. The one thing I like greatly is that these are almost exclusively "Lefty States"...not that I'm so to the "right", but left...you gotta be dumber than dumb...lefty's losing money just sounds so good to me.
this is funny. my wife and i had gone to seea townhome in robbinsville priced at 289k FSBO. When I told the owner it was way overpriced even for the current comps, he basically told me "thanks good luck with finding your home". Anyways, this was in January.
Yesterday (april 26) i get an email frm the guy which goes as follows:
This Sunday, April 30, from 1pm to 4pm will be the last open house at [ADDRESS REMOVED] before we list with a real estate agent. The final asking price has dropped to $289,000 for this weekend only. Once we list with an agent the asking price will rise to over $299,000.
This is the last weeknd to take advantage of this excellent opportunity to purchase this highly desirable end-unit for well below market value. We are motivated to get a deal done and will consider all offers. If your offer is accepted, we are also offering a $1,000 bonus toward your closing costs.
The only thing that we ask is that all offers are accompanied by a pre-approval letter from a mortgage company. The cutoff for offers will be 3pm on Monday afternoon May 1.
The furniture is all out and the house is ready for you...Be sure to stop by this coming Sunday for one more look! We are also showing the house by appointment this Saturday as well.
What is he smoking? It still sounds like desperation to me
skep-tic said...
I'm a little confused why the WSJ isn't digging a little deeper into the bubble story if everyone there believes it's popping.
7:03 AM
They don't believe it's popping. They believe that there is a lot of risk built into the system at this moment and are concerned about it.
At the core, they are supposed to be objective in their reporting. The opinion are saved for the Editorial pages and the Op-Eeds.
If you want opinions mixed with news, and flawed reporting, watch the Fox News Channel or read the New York Times.
Ba ba ba ba ba ba ba BOYCOTT Houses!!!
Inventory UP Up UP
FSBO Signs UP up UP
It takes a little time for denial to turn into pa pa pa pa pa PANIC, but we are close.
Booooooooyaaaaaaaa
Bob
"If you want opinions mixed with news, and flawed reporting, watch the Fox News Channel or read the New York Times."
Yeah but at least with the times they call it analysis. And fox news well... the only truthiness you will find there is when they do the weather. They just outright make crap up. Or parrot the lies of the right.
m reynolds
Chigaco and Skep-tic, I think WSJ has actually stuck its neck out more than other outlets -they usually do because they know their biz-savvy audience will call b.s. on 'em. They can be slow to react, but that usually makes them more accurate.
The media in general have failed to speak up about this in a timely way and often offer a confused picture in the name of 'balance.' The strongest reason for this, I think, is there is a genuine fear now in our financially troubled print press of angering advertisers, who just want readers to not worry, be happy and spend spend spend. This may explain the slant of the Borosons of the world.
I think Upton Sinclair sums it up best (this quote was used in the new climate-change movie, but applies to so many things):
'It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.'
It's a media climate like this that makes me appreciate Grim's blog immensely -- thanks to grim and all who post here!
I think Upton Sinclair sums it up best (this quote was used in the new climate-change movie, but applies to so many things):
'It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.'
GREAT QUOTE
Houston seems to have a good market right now - see here
When I told the owner it was way overpriced even for the current comps, he basically told me "thanks good luck with finding your home".
I've noticed that FSBOs are almost always priced WAY over the market, typically by $100K or more.
The realtor tells them their house is worth $500K, they get huffy, drop the realtor, and list it FSBO for $600K.
I don't even look at FSBOs, they're a waste of time.
"Yeah but at least with the times they call it analysis. And fox news well... the only truthiness you will find there is when they do the weather. They just outright make crap up. Or parrot the lies of the right."
It seems denial isn't just a river in Egypt.
As if it was necessary for the NY Times to run an above-the-fold front page story on "Abu Ghraib" for 67 straight days (really). Or report on some "Al Qaqaa" missing weapons 2 days before the presidential elections, and then never report on it again since. That's not news, that's pushing an agenda.
Kudos to Chicago Finance for having the honesty to point out media flaws wherever they exist.
Agreed FSBO are absolutely greedy. wouldn't give them the time of day.
will prove to have been the worst to go long any house in NNJ and/or NY and/or CA and/or FL. The one thing I like greatly is that these are almost exclusively "Lefty States"...not that I'm so to the "right", but left...you gotta be dumber than dumb...lefty's losing money just sounds so good to me
Talk about "dumber than dumb" -- this statement is so dumb that it should embarass whatever political wing you're associated with.
-- Even if prices fall down 30-40%, most of these states will still have seen huge appreciation since 1995. In short, for all your supposed chortling over "leftys" loosing money, you will find that on the whole, the so-called lefts have gained over the last 10 years. Whats been happening to RE in Ohio, now ?
-- I think you will probably find that even in NJ, a solid blue state, home purchasers (especially in upper income neighborhoods), tend to be more evenly split among right and left (simply because they tend to be older and higher income). This is probably even more so for investors. So your statement is even more idiotic.
-- FL is not a blue state and I notice you skipped over other states that have seen bubbles (NV, AZ).
-- REally, how stupid can someone be to be happy that either "rigties" or "lefties" loose money ? Pretty stupid, I imagine.
As if it was necessary for the NY Times to run an above-the-fold front page story on "Abu Ghraib" for 67 straight days (really).
No, not really. O'Reilly. Got any proof of that other than what O'Reilly said ?
Or report on some "Al Qaqaa" missing weapons 2 days before the presidential elections, and then never report on it again since.
A legitimate news story. And once the story was over, there was little else to report.
That's not news, that's pushing an agenda.
The New York Times is the same paper that published a dozen plus stories (all later shown to be false) by Judith Miller on WMDs in Iraq. Of course, wingnuts tend to ignore that.
Meanwhile, we have Fox, with its independent reporters like Tony Snow :-).
"No, not really. O'Reilly. Got any proof of that other than what O'Reilly said?
O'Reilly? Did you really not notice the NY Times obsession with that story yourself?
How's this for proof:
http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/087185.php
And on the day muslim terrorists sawed the head off Nicholas Berg, the NY Times ran his story below the fold, and above the fold was another "Abu Ghraib" story, complete with a full color photo.
"[Al Qaqaa] A legitimate news story. And once the story was over, there was little else to report."
Nonsense.
"Meanwhile, we have Fox, with its independent reporters like Tony Snow :-)."
As opposed to "independent reporters" such as Clinton advisor and Press Secretary George Stephanopoulos, who is today "Chief Washington Correspondent for ABC News."
http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/story?id=133369
Willful blindness is an ugly thing...
How's this for proof:
Irregardless of whether the link you supply was correct or not, you claimed 67 earlier. Now its 34. This seems to shrink just like those mythical WMDs.
As opposed to "independent reporters" such as Clinton advisor and Press Secretary George Stephanopoulos, who is today "Chief Washington Correspondent for ABC News.
Stephanopoulos's came from politics into news and his affiliation was well known (as is the case for half a dozen fox news people who came from politics into news). In the case of Tony Snow, you have someone who claims to be a correspondent going the other way.
Lefties are dumb.
Irregardless of whether lefties are dumb, anyone so stupid as to believe that a drop in the real estate market would hurt lefties has shown himself to be so amazingly dumb, so inane, and so inept that lobotomy would be an improvement. I notice you haven't bothered to respond to my other comments at all, which shows that you can incapable of rational thought.
Their fans were 3 types of people...naive youth, adult failures looking for some free sh.., and wealthy corrupt dem's, who thrive under spineless jellyfis
Judging by the Abramoff scandal, a lot of the wealthy corrupt seem to be on your side of the aisle. And hey, its your side that ran up a debt running into trillions.
grim:
Sorry - my bad :(
"Irregardless of whether the link you supply was correct or not, you claimed 67 earlier. Now its 34."
As if there's really a difference; I believe the 67 number was for the year.
And the link I supplied was correct. There were "Abu Ghraib" above-the-fold front page NY Times stories for 30+ days straight. To say the NY Times is not biased, is laughable.
http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/087185.php
"This seems to shrink just like those mythical WMDs."
A non sequitur, but for your convenience, those "mythical" WMDs are outlined in detail here:
www.freedomagenda.com/iraq/wmd_quotes.html
"Stephanopoulos's came from politics into news and his affiliation was well known"
His Q Score is moot -- he was advisor to President Clinton, and according to his bio, "was a key strategist in both Clinton presidential campaigns and was involved in the development of virtually all major policy initiatives during President Clinton's first term in office."
abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/story?id=133369
I would like to see your reaction when Karl Rove becomes "Chief Washington Correspondent for ABC News."
"(as is the case for half a dozen fox news people who came from politics into news)."
As well as for non-Fox people (e.g., Chris Matthews worked in the Jimmy Carter White House).
"In the case of Tony Snow, you have someone who claims to be a correspondent going the other way."
Exactly -- it's much worse for a political operative to become a "journalist," let alone "Chief Washington Correspondent for ABC News."
You're not very informed, and simply descend into partisan talking points...
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