Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Getting Rich In Real Estate

From Money Magazine:

Can you still get rich in real estate?

"Home sales are slowing. Condo prices are slipping. Sellers can't get their asking prices."

"And even real estate bulls are now waving the caution flag."

"If you're expecting a short-term gain, "you should be looking elsewhere," says Christopher Mayer, a Columbia University economics professor who not long ago argued that land shortages and rising populations would translate into ever-rising prices in "superstar" cities like New York and San Francisco."

"Clearly, it's time for a re-think, whether you're mulling over buying, selling, refinancing or remodeling a home or investment property. Or if you're just wondering, Is our house still worth what we think it is?"

"The short answer: It depends on where you live. If you reside in one of the past decade's boom markets along the coasts or in the Southwest, brace yourself. Prices there were powered by two kinds of fuel: low interest rates and the willingness of buyers to pay up for the American dream."

"That tank is almost empty."

"Mayer thinks that, with fewer people buying but plenty still hoping to cash out, prices in the most expensive markets could drop 15 percent in the next year, if mortgage rates rise another point. The forecasters at Fiserv Lending Solutions and Moody's Economy.com, who crunched the numbers for our 12-month nationwide forecast, aren't so pessimistic, but they're hardly Pollyannas."

"Prices will flatten in most ex-boomtowns this year, and next year will be worse, says David Stiff, Fiserv's chief economist. "A lot of markets - particularly those where prices have increased dramatically compared with income - will see drops by late 2007," he says."

54 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

did you leave this out on purpose?

http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/12/real_estate/reguide_moneymag_whatsnext_0606/index.htm

NJ forecast to appreciate 4-5%.

5/17/2006 01:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Doesn't Time-Warner publish Money? Boy things changed fast there from last years Time cover.

5/17/2006 02:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Appreciate 4-5%??

This is hilarious.

Already prices are lower than peak 2005 summer prices.

The floor is about to cooollapse.
papapapapapa PANIC

Booooooooyaaaaaaaa

Bob

5/17/2006 02:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bob
what "prices" are you looking at? Lowball figures? do your research.

5/17/2006 02:15:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fire Fire fire....run for the exits...the floor is about to coollapse.......Remember those morons in the Poseiden movie wouldn't climb the Christmas tree. Then when the water started to rush in PapapapapaPANICKED!

Remember it's too LATE when the masses change course.

Oh noooo

papappapapapapanic!

Boooooooyaaaaaaa

Bob

5/17/2006 02:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you have to sell you better act fast very fast and drop prices quickly to find a lemming buyer.

There are a few out there still so get aggressive with your price cuts and Get the Heck out.

Boooooooyaaaaaaaa

Bob

5/17/2006 02:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

just as i thought..you're just a loser trying to cause panic because you got left behind.

5/17/2006 02:20:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Northern NJ - From the NJAR Quarterly Statistics.

http://www.njar.com/2005Q3.pdf
http://www.njar.com/2005Q4.pdf

2 Bedrooms or less
2005 Q3 - $286,400
2005 Q4 - $276,500

3 Bedrooms
2005 Q3 - $393,700
2005 Q4 - $381,200

4 Bedrooms or more
2005 Q3 - $597,300
2005 Q4 - $563,700

First quarter data will be released by the NJAR any day now.

5/17/2006 02:21:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Anon @ 2:56,

Post them all up if you are going to accuse me of something.

Atlantic City NJ 1.00%
Camden NJ 6.80%
Edison NJ 3.00%
Newark-Union NJ 4.70%
Ocean City NJ 2.20%
Trenton-Ewing NJ 4.10%
Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton NJ 8.50%

5/17/2006 02:25:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I centainly hope we won't have to wait to the late 2007 to see drops.

Current Sellers seem are already the bag holders no matter they realized or not.

Reasonable price, yeah, we haven't seen for so long, seems just around the corner. I predict by the end of this year..

What do you all think?

5/17/2006 02:26:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Sorry, forgot the most important metropolitan area, they had it listed under NY..

New York-Wayne-White Plains 2.10%

5/17/2006 02:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"forecast" = a guess.

Actual data says, down, down, down.

Owners, don't offend buyers with insulting asking prices, get out while you still can, or you'll be unable to sell forever!

5/17/2006 02:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Fire Fire fire....run for the exits...the floor is about to coollapse.......Remember those morons in the Poseiden movie wouldn't climb the Christmas tree. Then when the water started to rush in PapapapapaPANICKED!"


LOL, a good visual.

5/17/2006 02:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim,
I meant it to read "between 4 & 5 percent" which i felt was the average at first glance.

Unrealtor,
I understand what forecast means and believe me - I hope it's wrong!!

I guess we just pay attention to "forecasts" that agree with our perspective then?

5/17/2006 03:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Someone is a la la la loser

5/17/2006 03:09:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon 4:08 - are you Bob?

5/17/2006 03:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Remember those morons in the Poseiden movie wouldn't climb the Christmas tree. Then when the water started to rush in PapapapapaPANICKED!"

Poseidon? You should stop wasting your money on crappy movies. You'll need it to buy your house.

5/17/2006 03:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Most of the ppl reading this blog are just praying for a good deal cause they got screwed out of the boom for the last 10 years.

I mean, do people really believe there's going to be fire sales based on housing's track record?

http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=131&genericContentID=503

Aside from a small blip in 91-93, which quickly recovered in 94, there has been no real prolonged downturns.

If this were a stock, I'd say the performance were pretty damn good.

5/17/2006 03:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The downturn in 1991-1993 is even less pronounced when looking at median prices (which tend to be less skewed by extreme outliers).

The biggest median price fall is from 1990 to 1991 (-$2,900 or -2.36%)

Point to a stock that has a 26 year history of consecutive increases aside from a one year 2.36% decrease -- I'd say that's pretty good. Heck, I even wish they had an ETF that tracked this median housing price.

5/17/2006 03:28:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

thank you anon 4:19!!

yeah, it seems like most ppl are expecting some kind of 50% off sales this summer. if it doesn't happen, expect the tune to be "wait til 2007"

Richie,
what about a forecast of a 20-40% decline?

5/17/2006 03:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Look dude, last anon.. .we are living in historic, unprecedented, times. Our currency is falling, our nation is being invaded by illegals, gold is parabolically increasing, oil too, people getting laid off, record national debt, record personal debt, more foreign flags flying on our soil than our own, our policticians have sold out thier constituents, super hurricaines, soaring inflation... get it. THE USA IS FUCKED chucky... get with the program.

5/17/2006 03:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

you gotta love the CALAMITY in the stock market..

i want calamity.

i want a 35% pullback on stocks, housing and oil.

buy a bicycle.

5/17/2006 03:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon 4:35
No matter, I believe the US will weather this. If not, the whole world is screwed. RE will be the least of our concerns.

5/17/2006 03:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I guess we just pay attention to 'forecasts' that agree with our perspective then?"


Ignore all forecasts, look at the data.

5/17/2006 03:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Most of the ppl reading this blog are just praying for a good deal cause they got screwed out of the boom for the last 10 years."


You're right! Houses should appreciate 100% in 4-5 years! It's completely normal, fundamentals don't matter at all!

5/17/2006 03:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

you have a point there unrealtor. but my point is, let's look at all the data - not just ones that point to where we want it to go. like the one that anon 4:19 posted.

5/17/2006 03:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You're right! Houses should appreciate 100% in 4-5 years! It's completely normal, fundamentals don't matter at all!

yes it will come back down eventually. just like a gallon of gas will probably be 1.50 again. but life goes on..we have to fill up at 3 bucks anyway. and I know, we don't have to buy a house..I those young couples will all have to wait to have kids until it's ok to move out of that 2 bedroom apartment.

5/17/2006 03:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

there will always be buyers no matter what. that's why there won't be a 50% decline. maybe in vegas but not here. the nj market was not fueled by investors/speculators.

5/17/2006 04:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"you have a point there unrealtor. but my point is, let's look at all the data - not just ones that point to where we want it to go."


Indeed, as Grim posted right above:

2 Bedrooms or less
2005 Q3 - $286,400
2005 Q4 - $276,500

3 Bedrooms
2005 Q3 - $393,700
2005 Q4 - $381,200

4 Bedrooms or more
2005 Q3 - $597,300
2005 Q4 - $563,700



If you have some interesting data to share, post away.

5/17/2006 04:04:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Anon @ 5:01,

If you have data that accurately describes the number of investor or speculator buyers in New Jersey, please share, because I've been looking long and hard for those numbers.

grim

5/17/2006 04:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"the nj market was not fueled by investors/speculators."


I don't know where you got that notion, there are specualtors all over the place in Northern NJ.

This speculator saw the market changed, and decided to abandon a planned tear-down -- but he'll give you the plans!


"come see architects preliminary drawings for a 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath colonial"
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1057139135



This flipper has been trying to sell this over-priced POS for months:
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1055026444


They were everywhere, and they were buying up all the "handy-man specials" which shut out many first time buyers.

5/17/2006 04:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon5:01-

two words for you: Solomon Dwek

btw, his attorneys will be creating a web site to list his investments for the many bank/investor lawyers to search for all the possible lost millions...

I'll be sure and share that url with you when it's available.

Don't think that there aren't more Dweks out there in NJ waiting to implode.
JM

p.s.- I own a weekend house in PA (bought at tax auction), but rent in NYC because it's makes more sense than buying.

5/17/2006 04:20:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Guys What would be the right price for this MLS # 2603814

5/17/2006 04:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Guys .... I mean this property ....

what is a fair price on this ?



360 TRENSCH DR
Twn: NEW MILFORD
Zip: 07646
RES/A
Block: 01607
Lt: 00009
Cty#: 02
CtyLoc: 400
Area#: 0238

5/17/2006 04:28:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's obvious the RE bulls posting here haven't been through a down market. I bought a 3br bi-level in Middlesex county in 1998 for 180,000, which was the going rate at the time. The previous owners bought it in 1991 for 167,500. After you factor in RE commissions, RE transfer taxes and improvements (previous owner spent 15,000) they actually were in the negative by 13,300. They lost 8% on over a 7-year holding period. That doesn't sound like such a great investment to me. Couple that with the fact I sold the same home in 2005 for 425,000 and it blows my mind as totally unrealistic. That's why I got the hell out of the market. What goes up will come down and yes, you can lose money in real estate just as easily as making it.

5/17/2006 04:36:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Regarding the NAHB Data:

1) The median represents NEW HOME SALES, not resales. While interesting, not particularly applicable to our local market.

2) That is a national aggregate. Because of this, it's more of a macroeconomic indicator. New Jersey data over the same time period show a much different picture.

3) Those numbers are not REAL, i.e. adjusted for inflation. The NAR and other groups love to use unadjusted numbers, they always show huge gains, very impressive to those who don't understand inflation.

4) Those numbers don't reflect the change in quality in housing. Compare a new home built in Idaho in 1980 with a new home built in New Jersey in 2006. Are they even remotely similar?

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

5/17/2006 04:43:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Sorry,

I mean both the median and average.

jb

5/17/2006 04:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

They may come down, but this "crash" that people are eagerly awaiting will probably never happen.
For Anon just above, if you factor in a 5% annual increase in prices (from 1991), then the price you sold at in 2005 is about 20% overpriced (in a typical market, not in this market).
The article grim posted suggested the market was 15% overpriced. So it's not that far off.

Some of you people are expecting like a 30-40% drop - that won't happen. Someone commented on how we live in bad times.
We really don't. The weak dollar is not horrible, it does some good by making our goods cheaper for export, which isn't bad for our economy. Speaking of which, the growth rate of our economy last quarter was phenomenal. The DOW is about to reach an ALL TIME high. Personal debt is pretty high, but it's all at low interest rates for the most part and repayment rates are apparently at an all time high (this is per an interview with the CFO of Citigroup, Krawcheck, that I read online).
As for illegals entering our country - this is not a new problem, its simply been brough to light because its an election year and, finally, we are doing something about it.
The cheap labor don't hurt though.

5/17/2006 04:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hahahaha!

We have people up to their eyeballs in I/O loans to finance a house, we have record levels of state and gov't debt, we have Greenspin who devalued the dollar by printing dollars at a whim, we have an energy crisis and glut of SUV's and McMansions that will cripple their ownwers as cost remain high.

Pal we have big problems.

It's a society out of control.

5/17/2006 05:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And our country is reliant on foreigners buying our gov't bonds to fund our deficits. We are heavily dependent on foreign terrorist nations to supply us with energy.

This is pearl harbor / 911 all over again. The complacency of our society is mind boggling.

How anyone can come on this board and say everything is just okay in the housing market is a greedy self serving jerk.

5/17/2006 05:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is pearl harbor / 911 all over again. The complacency of our society is mind boggling.

What?

5/17/2006 05:09:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous 6:02 and 6:06 is (are) clueless.
The sad fact is that there are some people who realize they should have bought a few years ago but didn't, because they were too busy playing the stock market and missed out, and are now crying bubble in hopes that the market will collapse and they will score a "great deal" from some poor loser who overburdened himself with an ARM or interest only loan.

Wake up!
It's not happening.
This is not the stock market. Real estate is not that liquid. Someone who bought a high priced house likely also sold his/her house at a high price and so can afford the purchase. That's the majority of the people we're talking about.
A friend of mine bought a townhouse for like 260K in 2003, sold it for 430K in 2005 and bought a 700K new construction home (locked in the purchase rate 1 year prior on the new home). He put basically nothing out of his pocket for the downpayment given the sale of his home, and has a 560K mortgage which he can pay comfortably.

THAT REPRESENTS THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE.
YOU LOSERS WHO MISSED OUT DID JUST THAT - YOU MISSED OUT! STOP WHINING!

We have always been dependent on foreign nations for the majority of our oil. It will never be a problem - these nations make money by selling their oil, not holding it back. If they choose not to sell to us, it is sold elsewhere and we buy from there, no biggie. The oil market is very big, and very liquid (no pun intended), unlike the real estate market.

Do you realize real estate values have gone up everywhere, not just the US, but in all developed and rapidly developing nations. Most of those countries have been buying oil at a price nearly twice ours for years and years.
Who cares if there is a glut of SUV's or McMansions? That is someones personal preference and has nothing to do with the RE market in general.

5/17/2006 05:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

we know usually the listing/transaction price has been around $100K above the assessed value.

But recently I have seen listing price below assessed value, What does it mean?

Check this listing. Super motivated seller!

2254550

don't these kind of listings drag down the comps..

These happen quite quickly. I have seen 50K drops within recent two weeks.

Check these two listings: They all well overpriced even at this point, but the "cheaper" one surely will run the older listing out of being sold any time soon.

2231973: $979K
2278883 : $929K

downward spiral!

A saying: the housing appreciation is like taking the escalator, but the downward trend of housing is an elevator. Downwards much faster!

5/17/2006 05:25:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Everyone,

Please back your statements with data. Otherwise, they are meaningless. And yes, this goes for both camps. All I'm asking for are links to sources or posted data with some sort of reference.

Arguments and discussions based on opinion and anecdotes isn't worth anyones time.

Please take the time to do the research, if you do it will benefit everyone. Otherwise the discussion ends up deteriorating.

Tastes great.. Less filling..

grim

5/17/2006 05:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

can someone provide the url or link for looking up mls #'s. Please.

5/17/2006 06:30:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

5/17/2006 06:48:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Anon 6:23PM:

Didn't I meet you at Atlantic City a couple of months ago?

We were at the same BlackJack table.

Do you remember that hand where you bet $100 and were dealt a 10 and a 2? The dealer had a 6 face up.

You asked me what to do, and I said you should "stay".

You said I was crazy because the dealer had a 6. You doubled down for $200, and the dealer gave you a 9.

Boy you were right on that one!

5/17/2006 06:50:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon 4:08 - are you Bob? ...NO

5/17/2006 06:52:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

After today's day on the market, I am so happy that God created Laphroaig!

5/17/2006 06:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

cheers!

5/17/2006 07:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"After today's day on the market, I am so happy that God created Laphroaig!"

That's a very smoky, peaty one, right? I think I'll thank Him for the Speysides instead.

5/17/2006 07:43:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

I most certainly object to that comment, REInvestor.

As your host, I've been nothing but cordial and courteous to you, and every other visitor that has commented.

The forum is open to opinion, regardless of what that opinion may be.

The issues discussed here are emotionally charged. Individuals commenting on either side of the topic should be prepared to defend their position by providing the necessary data and economic theory to support it.

grim

5/17/2006 09:14:00 PM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

Reinvestor101,

Be prepared to have to address the most base vitriol from a variety of posters here.

If that isn't the pot calling the kettle black!

Your posts have consisted of "base vitriol" on numerous occasions and more than once I've stated to you that your posts would be much better received here if they were based less on emotion and more on data.

Accusing supporters of the housing bubble of being "terrorists" and siding with "Osama bin Laden" hardly qualifies one as rational.

5/17/2006 10:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's the link to the Dwek case documents...

http://tinyurl.com/ly4yb

Just from a quick glance, it appears these banks are involved:
PNC, Amboy Bank, Lakeland Bank, HSBC.

Expect these (if not others) to examine lending guidelines for RE investors.

JM

5/18/2006 11:00:00 AM  

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