Wednesday, June 21, 2006

New Jersey Population Growth

A number of pieces on the recently released Census population estimates for 2005.

From the Star Ledger:

SMALL-TOWN JERSEY SEES BIGGEST GROWTH

So far this decade, the ranks of New Jerseyans willing to make that trade-off have swelled, according to census data released yesterday.

The new numbers are population estimates for the state's 566 towns, and they show that most of the state's meager population growth occurred in small communities like Hamburg.

In fact, when towns are grouped by size -- from the smallest tenth to the largest tenth -- the fastest-growing segment is those in the third group from the bottom, with populations between 2,771 and 4,287 in 2000.

These 56 towns saw a nearly 9 percent increase in population -- more than twice the rate of the state as a whole. Put another way, this group of small towns, comprising 2 percent of the state's population, has garnered 6 percent of the state's population growth over the last five years.

"This is a reflection of two forces," said James Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University. "There's the issue of housing affordability and the receptivity in many of these towns to growth."
...
New Jersey's largest cities, while experiencing a construction boom, are not seeing a population explosion, according to the census figures. Newark is up 3 percent this decade, while Jersey City is down slightly.
...
"And it's only perceived economics that brings people here, not real economics. It requires that you discount the value of your time to nothing, and that you are willing to put up with spending all your free time in traffic," he said.

The rush-hour drive from northern Sussex County to Route 80 can take 45 minutes to an hour -- and that doesn't include the time it would then take to get to the ultimate destination.

From the Star Ledger:

2 counties continue to grow
BY MATTHEW J. DOWLING

Population figures for Somerset and Hunterdon counties continue to show steady growth, particularly in Montgomery Township, where the number of residents has shot up 30 percent over the last five years, according to U.S. Census figures released yesterday.

Montgomery ranks ninth among the state's 566 municipalities for population increases since 2000, with the latest figures showing 22,741 residents.

Lebanon Borough in Hunterdon County ranks second. Population in the tiny hamlet has risen from 1,065 to 1,749 in the past five years fueled by recent housing developments. Only Woolwich Township in Gloucester County ranks higher.

Towns along the eastern border of Somerset County surrounding the New Brunswick area also have shown double-digit growth rates over the past five years.
...
Franklin Township, Green Brook and Watchung all rank among the top 40 municipalities for population increases in the state. Watchung's population has shot up 23 percent since 2000 to 6,170 residents, according to the Census figures.


From the Daily Record:

Morris population growth slowing
BY COLLEEN O'DEA

At the midpoint between decennial censuses, new data released today show the Morris County region as a whole growing at a much smaller rate than it did in the previous decade.

The 2005 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show that population in the typical town in Morris rose by about 3 percent since Census 2000, or less than a half percent a year. Between 1990 and 2000, population rose by more than twice that on average, or 1.1 percent a year.

But that doesn't mean some places aren't growing.

Already, the bureau estimates, the population in four Morris communities has jumped more than 10 percent in five years. Florham Park has registered the largest increase, of nearly a quarter. Mount Arlington, Pequannock and Rockaway Township all have had double digits population increases.

Between 2004 and 2005, Mount Arlington, Pequannock and Denville saw their populations rise the most, the bureau believes.

"The fastest growers are towns with large condo/(apartment)-style housing -- senior or assisted living," said Christine Marion of the Morris County Planning Department.
...
But there are also several municipalities that census officials believe have lost population, either between 2004 and 2005 or in the previous five years.

Chatham, Lincoln Park, Mine Hill, Rockaway, Victory Gardens and Wharton all have smaller population counts in 2005 than they did in 2000, according to the estimates. And Butler, Madison, Mendham Township, Rockaway, Victory Gardens, Wharton, Hopatcong and Stanhope had fewer residents in 2005 than a year earlier.


The Census Dataset by County can be found here:

Census 2005 Population Estimates (Warning: Large CSV File)

Population Estimate Changes (July 2005 - July 2006)

New Jersey 32,759 0.38%
Atlantic 2,704 1.01%
Bergen 816 0.09%
Burlington 2,087 0.47%
Camden 2,629 0.51%
Cape May -1,175 -1.17%
Cumberland 2,232 1.48%
Essex -3,958 -0.50%
Gloucester 4,126 1.51%
Hudson -1,838 -0.30%
Hunterdon 1,086 0.84%
Mercer 1,875 0.51%
Middlesex 5,851 0.75%
Monmounth 890 0.14%
Morris 3,156 0.65%
Ocean 5,248 0.95%
Passaic 121 0.02%
Salem 1,027 1.57%
Somerset 3,677 1.16%
Sussex 1,013 0.67%
Union 611 0.12%
Warren 581 0.53%

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

13 Comments:

Blogger grim said...

Shailesh,

In and out migration is only one of the components of population change. Birth and death plays a significant role in these changes.

Which, only naturally, leads into birth rate. I believe the oft quoted figure to be a birth rate of 2.1 in order to be at a 'replacement' level, where population neither grows nor declines.

I'm not sure what the current birth rate in NJ is, I'll have to do some digging to find that.

However, the DINK (Double Income No Kids) scenario is becoming very popular in Northern NJ. Parents don't seem to be planning large families anymore. As affordability in this area declines, it only makes sense that families will have fewer children in order to stay in this area.

grim

6/21/2006 06:53:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Unfortunately, gross population numbers aren't going to help us understand the growing (or declining) demand for housing.. We would really need to know the net change in terms of households, not individuals..

grim

6/21/2006 07:33:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim said:

"As affordability in this area declines, it only makes sense that families will have fewer children in order to stay in this area."

Is that true? While that might be the case for some folks, I find it hard to believe that the increase in DINKs nationwide (worldwide for that matter) is dependent on economics. There are larger social forces at work that have led to the rise of DINK households.

6/21/2006 09:01:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

shail: great stuff!

"All these arguments aim to minimize the inflation threat. To anyone who knows the history, this is eerily reminiscent of the 1960s and '70s. Then, economists underestimated inflation. They argued that a bit more wouldn't hurt or that increases reflected "temporary" pressures. In the resulting political and intellectual climate, the Fed pursued easy money and credit policies for too long. It tried to drive economic growth up and unemployment down. The results were perverse: double-digit inflation, four recessions from 1969 to 1982 and higher unemployment.

Since 1982 there have been only two mild recessions. The lesson is that low inflation promotes more stable economic growth. The Fed should heed that. True, it could trip into a recession. But without dramatic evidence of a weakening economy, the greater danger is a renewal of inflationary psychology. It's time for the punch bowl to go."


Sing it Sammy!

6/21/2006 09:46:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The job transfers, the divorces, the job losses, the speculators, the people who have used ARMS, and now cannot afford the new payments, the massive amount of sub-prime borrowers, and all the people who have sucked the equity out of their homes and consumed it.

Its just common sense, its just that simple.

Unfortunately, it may not be that simple since the things you mentioned do not represent the majority.
There was a report posted here that showed there's only 3% who have equity less than 5% in their homes. 94% have 10% or more, 87% have 20% or more.
I myself hope prices do come down significantly but if these numbers are true then I can see why prices won't be coming down as much as I would hope.

DW

6/21/2006 10:12:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Is that true? While that might be the case for some folks, I find it hard to believe that the increase in DINKs nationwide (worldwide for that matter) is dependent on economics."

Why is that so hard to believe? The costs of raising even one child are enormous, particularly in this state.

6/21/2006 11:04:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

DW, delford,

In current position, I think/assume everything is the same (same divorce rate, birth rate, immigrant ...), but the loss of high-pay job, the resetting of ARM, the psychology of people pay a significant role in the downturn.

And by simply judging from the number of FSBO and their asking price, they are still dreaming it is the summer of 2005.

007

6/21/2006 11:06:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If we assume that the vast majority will NOT be in trouble in a declining market, then I don't see how or why sellers would give in to buyers.
People mention the resetting of ARMs, rising interest rates,etc. But if you're a seller and you can afford to ride it out why wouldn't you? I don't see the logic behind selling just for the sake of it. No matter what you're selling you want the most you can get. That's just common sense.
It's pretty obvious that inventory numbers are climbing but at this point we don't know for sure what the forces are behind it. Sure we hear stories of desperation but who knows if the flood of inventory is being caused by desperation or simply by sellers trying to get top dollar, looking for greater fools. It may be that sellers are just testing the waters to see what they get similar to buyers making low ball offers. If they don't get what they want, they may pull out and try again.
No down or not, if you're house appreciated 50% or more, would you be desperate if it declines by 10%?
The fact that prices are holding indicates that the sellers still have the upper hand in the stand-off.
Seems as though the soft landing theory is still holding up. Perhaps there's some truth to those numbers. Maybe there's just not enough people in danger of being under water to cause a severe downturn.

DW

6/21/2006 11:36:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

I disagree => No PAIN = No PAIN

Buyers haven't had their hands forced yet. In the short-run, people can be flexible, but as situations change, people will make the difficult decisions, and structural change will be observed.

Patience Grasshopper.

6/21/2006 11:51:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Grim Ghost said...
I find it hard to believe that Hudson County is loosing population, for instance.
6/21/2006 12:51:33 PM

Why?

6/21/2006 11:53:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Family of 5 with no car replaced by DINKS living in new construction and owning 2 cars.

Just check out the sizes of public and private high school graduating classes for evidence.

Sacred Heart Catholic High School in Hoboken closed. Hoboken High is getting smaller every day.

I would focus more on increases in income per capita than population trends.

6/21/2006 12:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim: "the DINK (Double Income No Kids) scenario is becoming very popular in Northern NJ. Parents don't seem to be planning large families anymore. As affordability in this area declines, it only makes sense that families will have fewer children in order to stay in this area."

Best news I read yet, less reproducing of mostly lefty's!

6/21/2006 12:50:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

CF and delford -
My plan all along was to start looking end of this summer or next year before I heard of this bubble talk. I sure hope you're right.

Good luck to everyone!

DW

6/21/2006 01:07:00 PM  

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