Sunday, June 04, 2006

Weekend Open Discussion

Observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, Open House reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let's have them.

For readers that have never commented, there is a small link on the bottom of each new message that reads "# Comments". Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn't know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past 6 months. The archives can be found at the bottom of the right hand menu and are categorized by month.

As always, anything goes!

171 Comments:

Anonymous UnRealtor said...

9 Open Houses scheduled near me this weekend -- realtors will sit bored and alone from 1-4PM!

The boycott continues!

6/02/2006 02:32:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

The OFHEO just yesterday released their housing price index. To my surprise, Northern NJ (Newark-Union MSA) actually showed appreciation between the 4th qtr 2005 and 1st qtr. 2006. The NAR numbers shows a drop during this period.

While the OFHEO uses a statistically rigorous process to derive their numbers, I do see one major shortcoming; they only track conforming mortgages. Since $414k, about the median price on an NNJ home, is the conforming mortgage limit, their survey misses about half of the market.

Any other thoughts on why the NAR numbers are coming down while the OFHEO index is going up?

6/02/2006 02:50:00 PM  
Blogger rymingrealtor said...

Currently, there are 30,045 properties advertised for sale in NJ
Bob go easy I don't want you to have a booyaa heart atack

6/02/2006 02:56:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

I think this bit from Ben's blog is the key factor here. I've been trying to do some research on it before I posted my thoughts on the OFHEO numbers, but I've been busy here at work..

“An important factor that has affected the HPI in some recent quarters is the influence of refinancings on the overall index. Valuations derived from refinance appraisals are constructed under different circumstances than those surrounding purchase prices; appraisers operate under specific types of pressures and may employ different ‘comparable’ properties in estimating value than were (implicitly) used in the formation of a purchase price.”

“Similarly, appraisals conducted for ‘rate-term’ refinances can in fact look different from appraisals for ‘cash-out’ refinances. In areas where the cash-out refinancing has grown the most, the divergence between the HPI appreciation rate and the purchase-only rate is the greatest.”

“In conclusion, the empirical evidence suggests that the growing prevalence of cash-out refinances over the last year has had the effect of increasing measured appreciation rates for the HPI. Homes with cash-out refinances likely are disproportionately those that have experienced the most appreciation. Thus the HPI dataset, which includes appraisals used for cash-out refinances, may have relatively more rapidly appreciating houses than the purchase-only index.”

6/02/2006 03:00:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Just saw a post on the OFHEO numbers over at Calculated Risk.

House Price Index: Effect of Appraisal Data

And if you just want to see the graph:

Appraisal Data Effect

grim

6/02/2006 03:12:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Thanks Grim. Sounds like a reasonable explanation. Any idea who did that writeup? Was it a blogger, OFHEO, an economist?

I also think the conforming loan limit proabbly has a big impact in high price areas where many homes are "priced out" of conforming mortages.

6/02/2006 03:13:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

6/02/2006 03:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

rentinginnj - it's right in their report.
Pat

http://www.ofheo.gov/

6/02/2006 03:52:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

MISERY INCREASING AMONG STARVING REALTORS AND GREEDY MONEY GRUBBING SELLERS


BOYCOTT HOUSES NO MAAS TO PONZI SCAM RIPOFF PRICES.

CHEERS

Bob!

6/02/2006 03:57:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

RentinginNJ,

The quoted text is from the OFHEO report.

http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/1q06hpi.pdf

6/02/2006 03:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

GLUTS AND GLUTS OF INVENTORY PILING UP ON THE CLEARANCE RACKS.

30 GRAND PARTY IS HERE.

From the GSML site.
"Welcome to the new home of Garden State MLS’ public search engine. Currently, there are 30,062 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site. For Residential Properties that are Multiple Listed with Garden State, 99% are available to be searched on this site."


THINK for yourself.... Protect your own finances.

BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA!

CHEERS!!!

Bob

6/02/2006 03:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ANY PREDICTIONS ON THE 40 GRAND HOUSING PARTY.


I EXPECT INVENTORY TO SOON GO PARABOLIC UPWARDS.


BOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!


CHEERS

HAVE A NICE WEEKEND.

IIIIILLLLL BEEEEEE BAAAAAAACK

Bob

6/02/2006 04:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Does anyone know what happened to the blog site: America's Overvalued Real Estate (overvalued blogspot.com)? It all of a sudden ended about a week ago and now it's a commercial real estate site (total garbage).
I really miss it and the overvalued real estate postings from all over the USA. A while ago there was even a hilariously teeny- tiny island for sale from Canada.

6/02/2006 05:06:00 PM  
Blogger frustrated in Hudson County said...

BOB,

I'm ready for that 40 Grand Housing party. I need to network and find a nice big place to rent for another year.
I may even take a walk around downtown Jersey city with a bullhorn and obvnoxiously laugh at all the realtors sitting at their open houses. ;-)

6/02/2006 06:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Taken for a ride?

#1 Betty Ann dr was bought in 02 March 2006 for 570K.

For some reason they put the house on sale again for 995K and later reduced the price to 570K. Someome actually bought the "reduced price" house for 570K. Neat trick.

SOLD - 1 Betty Ann 5 4 1 3 $995,000 $570,000 5/30/2006

BUY- 1 Betty Ann Dr | 0 mi 03/02/2006 | $570,000 | N/A N/A | N/A N/A | N/A | 26,402

6/02/2006 06:38:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Currently, there are 30,074 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site."

http://www.gsmls.com



Once July kicks in, and the time for buyers to register kids for school passes, sellers will face the music.

6/02/2006 06:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just found a new rental to wait out the crash in. Let the games begin!

jw

6/02/2006 06:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

does anyone know what the inventory was during 1988-`1989?

6/02/2006 07:21:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Here's the latest from the Flipper File:


138 Silver Spring Rd, Short Hills
MLS 2104270
Closed $725K in Nov 2005


Not a bad looking house to start with, and 6 months later, we have:

138 Silver Spring Rd, Short Hills
MLS 2284029
Asking price: $999,900

http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1061005531
(photo will show up tomorrow)

The flipper added an absurd front porch which doesn't match the existing architecture one bit:

http://tinyurl.com/pv62e

Just listed today. Should be interesting to see how it does on the market.

6/02/2006 07:22:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Off-topic:

So tomorrow is my 20 year high school reunion. The meeting in the Central Park was cancelled due to rain, but we still have the evening soiree.

Anybody have some tips or advice for this?

Avoid real estate discussions, right?

6/02/2006 08:33:00 PM  
Blogger WickedQuiver said...

Dangerous liaisons
Exotic mortgages remain popular despite increasing risks

http://tinyurl.com/h8k3u

'Because homeownership is so critically important in financial security, these Americans are unwittingly putting their entire financial livelihood at risk.'
Allen Fishbein, Consumer Federation of America.

6/02/2006 09:28:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

chicago - advice...
1. don't drink too much - leading to foot in mouth situations.
2. Grin and shake your head in agreement to any topic your know more about but don't care to discuss with someone you never spoke to in HS.
3. Don't dress too 80's (neon is not cool).
4. Have fun!

6/02/2006 10:20:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Inventory in Manhattan is up 67 percent for May 2006 over May 2005. Co-op inventory is up 53 percent and condominium inventory is up 87 percent, mainly attributable to new development.

Also, apartments are staying on the market longer. In the first quarter, the average was 138 days, It is now approaching 150 days, and a lot of that inventory is overpriced.

I think this summer we see begin to see substantial price drops.

6/02/2006 10:52:00 PM  
Blogger new 200 Mbps BROADBAND over POWER LINES said...

Real Estate Investors watchout for this!!!

US homeowners see mortgage rates topping 8 pct
Fri Jun 2, 2006 3:24 PM ET

6/02/2006 11:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

'Housing boom is over,' analyst says as Pulte is latest home builder to cut outlook
Posted 6/2/2006 5:26 PM ET


DETROIT (AP) — Pulte (PHM) on Friday became the latest major home builder to lower its full-year earnings outlook as the housing market continues to cool. Its shares tumbled more than 5% to a 52-week low.
Pulte cut its full-year outlook after both Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) and Toll Brothers (TOL) lowered their forecasts within the past month.

All three companies cited large dips in new orders and jumps in cancellation rates in the second quarter on top of rising interest rates and larger inventories.

Pulte, which operates in 27 states, reported preliminary new orders dropped about 29% in April and May from last year to 6,447 units from 9,128 units.

Toll Brothers, a luxury home builder operating in 21 states, had a 29% second-quarter drop in signed contracts and Hovnanian, which builds mostly in the Northeast, California and the Washington D.C. area, had about a 19% drop in net contracts.

"Buyer demand through April and May has been below expectations," Richard Dugas Jr., Pulte's president and chief executive, said in a statement.

Home prices should start to dip as companies offer incentives and discounts and investors who bought up many homes during the boom sell their assets, said Rick Murray, an analyst from Raymond James & Associates.

"I think it's safe to say the housing boom is over," Murray said.

Pulte, the largest builder of active-adult communities for people 55 and older, projects earnings of 85 cents to 95 cents a share for the current second quarter, and $4.70 to $5 a share for the full year. In April, the company had forecast 2006 earnings between $6 and $6.25 a share.

Cancellation rates for the two months stood at 27.4%, up from 14.8% in the year-ago period.

Based on the slower sales pace, Pulte forecast unit settlements for the year will range from 44,000 to 46,000 homes. New orders fell in every part of the country except the central region, which had 1,169 units, up from 1,492 last year.

The National Association of Home Builders expects home sales this year to fall to 2004 levels, which were surpassed only by those in 2005.

This year "might still end up being the second best year ever," said Michael Carliner, an economist with the association. Much of the effect from fewer orders shouldn't show up in this year's earnings, he said.

On the New York Stock Exchange, Pulte shares fell $1.70, or 5.2%, to close at $31.33, Hovnanian Enterprises shares fell 91 cents, or 2.7%, to close at $32.36, and Toll Brothers shares rose 4 cents to close at $28.83.

6/02/2006 11:47:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

NEW YORK, June 2 (Reuters) - American homeowners say mortgage rates have the potential to rise above 8 percent in the next year, but are not worried that higher rates and a slowing housing market will hurt the value of their homes.


For many owners, the cognitive dissonance runs deep...

6/03/2006 12:09:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

My wife is a realtor in Chatham, NJ. She tells me that A) many sellers dont want to hear that they are late to the party and insist on over pricing their house and B) If she is not willing to list it for the sellers price, someone else will get the listing. There are many FSBOs as well on the market in Chatham. For the first time in about 7 years, the market is so oversaturated. The biggest problem my wife has is that sellers think price reductions of $10-20K will get the deal done. In reality, several deals she has closed have seem proce reductions from $1.5-$1.6 million down to 1.2 million. Sellers who need to sell because of job transfers and divorce are taking a beating.

There are several realtors in my wife's office who are really struggling big time. If I were not working, we would be in big trouble as well.

I dont want your pity, just stating the facts of the market in Chatham, a formerly hot town.

MG

6/03/2006 12:20:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think several of the newcomer agents in the office we've visited (our agent is) are going back to their perfume squirting jobs at Macy's.

6/03/2006 04:41:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

lol, perfume squirting job at Maceys...thats a good one.

6/03/2006 06:49:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To Anon. 1:20 AM
How are they taking a beating when selling in Chatham ?
They are not entitled to their obscene profits or are they the
SPECIAL PEOPLE ??

6/03/2006 07:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Pat said...

In Chatham, if they bought for $800 and sell for $1.2, then a $400 profit is a beating?
Just reality checking.

6/03/2006 07:23:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I live near Washington Street in Chatham and most of my neighbors view their house like a bank CD. They feel they are entitled to a nice profit for holding onto their house for several years. My felling is if people are dumb enough to pay the price, so be it. Most of my neighbors houses were selling in the $500-600K range in 2000. Today they get 1.2 to 1.5 million. I myself have been here since 1995 and I paid $320,000 for my house. Today I can get quadruple my money, but not the 1.5 mil I would like. Dont be mad because alot of us had good timing. If you want to buy into Chatham, right now you have to overpay. The market may change in a year, but people are not going to give into the buyers, at least not in this town right now.

Peter M.

6/03/2006 07:52:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Good article over at InvestorGeeks by Chris Welch.

Misconception: Renting is for Suckers

You’ve heard all the reasons that people want to stop renting. “I don’t want to waste my money.” Heck, you may have even said them yourself. Many of my friends are reaching that point in their lives where they’re considering buying a home. However it’s unfortunate that so many choose to buy over rent, especially in this expensive market, because many well-intentioned people are buying homes that are actually damaging their finances.
...
For every $100 you spend in rent a month, you’d be better off buying up to $12,500 in property instead.

For example, I live in Northern New Jersey, and currently pay $1,000/mn for my 1 bedroom apartment. I would be better of financially if I were to buy a condo that cost up to $125,000. The only problem is that where I live, there’s nothing habitable that I can buy for under $125,000, and if I spend much more than that, it’ll actually cost me more money to buy than rent!!! Unfortunately this is a problem shared by my friends in major cities around the country.


grim

6/03/2006 08:00:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Congrats Peter, you purchased your home at what many think was the bottom of the market, after the last real estate bubble burst in New Jersey.

You are a fine example of why you shouldn't buy near the top, and why buyers should just sit back and wait.

grim

6/03/2006 08:18:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Numerous newby realtors who jumped on the gravy train stealing other peoples money are going back to flipping burgers and working at home depot!

6/03/2006 08:39:00 AM  
Blogger Delaware Beach Man said...

There is an auction in Rehoboth Beach, DE tomorrow. I'll try to attend. I'm not sure if this is a start of a trend. Of course, we can't really have a slow down here because we're a beach area.

6/03/2006 08:53:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We seem to be having a lot of rainy weekends. How long before the NAR latches onto that as a cause of the RE slow down ("the weather kept people from open houses")?

6/03/2006 11:03:00 AM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

peter m. in summit is indeed a luck man for timing.

not all timing however, turns out
to be in your favor.

selling at the moment,, is not
for the faint of heart.

you better have staying power to ride out that sucking sound you hear as the bottom falls out over the next year.

6/03/2006 11:11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I drive by this one every day in Lake Mohawk. Newly listed #2269021 at a whopping $589,900. It looks like it was flipped judging by the outside work & write up "completely remodeled." Anyone care to check when it was bought & how much?

D

6/03/2006 01:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have been reading this blog for a while now and have posted ocassionally. I wanted to share observations on 2 different points.

1. i work for a company in its sales office in NNJ. There are about 150 of us ( mainly foreigners from UK,China and India ) in this location and the change over last 4 years has been dramatic. in 2002 when i started working in this location there were about 3 home owners in a staff of 120 then. this office has been in operation for last 10 years. Now 4 years later i am among 10 people who do now own a home. I think it is quite telling in terms of how these 4/5 years have been special and on impact of immigrants on the sale of houses.Thought i should share this with you as i still feel many have underestimated the contribution of immigrants in this whole phenomenon. Not that it makes this any less of a bubble but the downside is likely to be different than nomral when immigrants are involved.. Also many always take immigrants as people in low income brackets. All the people mentioned here make between 80K and 150K in an average year and have staying power. Nothing but a loss of employment will create a problem for these folks.

2. I look for things that will really impact price of houses ( like most people on this blog). I have come up with 3 categories and i think most items can be fitted in one of these three.
a. Affordability. ( Interest rate,employment,Incomes,Discounts on houses and such other deals) etc)
b. Psychology ("if not now then never" ,"house price never falls","renters are loosers" etc.)
c. demand and supply ( Inventory,Construction numbers )

Of course each impacts other 2 but yet they are a bit independent in some ways. I am also counting war/oil shocks/terrorism as ultimately impacting one or more of these but only in an accelarated timeframe.I feel that the second and third categories are both supporting scenarios of price drops but the first one is not yet there and we will see the other 2 putting short term downward pressures ( 2 years ) but if this has to be a long term decline to mean the first factor is key. I see the last 2 months employment reports as the starting point of this category also turning around in support of price declines. I am also hoping that at some point Mortgage rates will stop tracking 10 year and will adjust to the risk premium associated with housing as a lending sector. I think if current trend on employment continues for next 2 to 3 months then the convergence of this factor is likely to start showing up in prices more prominently in about 3 months.

-SJ

6/03/2006 02:11:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

they really dont have staying power
if they lose the job and thats it.

as perhaps the Company will move this boiler room to a less expensive location.

6/03/2006 02:28:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

AZ babe,

I wanted to ask you about AZ. Could you email me. Thanks.

6/03/2006 03:00:00 PM  
Blogger Alombard01 said...

I read an interesting article about a month ago noting that the housing market in the tri-state area will slow down but the price of homes will hold steady and not decline. It was noted that the largest reason for this is that NJ, NY, and CT are considered hot spots for foreign immigrants to come and live. Hence there is more demand for the housing market in these areas. I found this interesting and wanted to get some feedback from others.

6/03/2006 03:52:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"NJ, NY, and CT are considered hot spots for foreign immigrants to come and live. Hence there is more demand for the housing market in these areas. I found this interesting and wanted to get some feedback from others."


Unless there's some secret "double immigrant salary rule," they're subject to the same financial limitations as everyone else.

An immigrant buying a house with a 0% down ARM is just as likely to have problems as a non-immigrant.

Housing prices have a relationship to incomes, and when you factor in all the high paying NJ jobs exported to India, and soon China...

6/03/2006 03:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe areas with higher proportions of immigrants will also have relatively more high-risk loans?

I also read an article that showed that immigrants and English as 2nd language home buyers were more likely to be talked into suicide loans.

Will number of defaults offset the higher demand?

Pat

6/03/2006 04:03:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Alombard01 said...
I read an interesting article about a month ago noting that the housing market in the tri-state area will slow down but the price of homes will hold steady and not decline. It was noted that the largest reason for this is that NJ, NY, and CT are considered hot spots for foreign immigrants to come and live. Hence there is more demand for the housing market in these areas. I found this interesting and wanted to get some feedback from others.
4:52 PM


I will not disagree with this effect, but bear in mind that the impact is probably already well baked into prices. As a result, you should not expect some kind of superior return or downside insurance.

You could also try to use this analysis as a rationale that it may be safer to buy in this area, as there will be a constant flow of ready buyers. However, you can refute the effect by saying these immigrants are ultimately not loyal to living in the U.S. or this area, and are apt to move when economic (or other) conditions warrant.

Ultimately, you should be indifferent to this information.

It's bunk!

6/03/2006 04:20:00 PM  
Blogger rymingrealtor said...

{{{{Hence there is more demand for the housing market in these areas. I found this interesting and wanted to get some feedback from others.}}}}

My personal experience only

Most of my (as high as 90% )buyers moving into the town that I work and live in have been hispanic. I am not sure how to post this without sounding prejudice but when these buyers use hispanic realtors they really get sold down the river. I think sometimes they trust blindly. I have sold to people who did not speak english who would absolutely not work with an agent who was hispanic.
I am too much of an explainer of every detail( even if with a translator) to end up with a client that did not know what they were getting into.
KL

6/03/2006 04:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I too wonder what is the role of immigration. I think there are some sterotyping (immigrants are poor) but here is my take. There are two very different groups of immigrants:

1: High-income experts. For example, my company established new office here and it brought about 120 new immigrants overseas (myself included) to NY region. Most make more than 150k and about 2/3 of them have already bought a house. Besides, dollar is cheap to them so buying a house is not a big problem.

2: Low-income, often illegal immigrants. They may take exotic loans and they may create problems for the neighborhood (30 people with 8 cars living in the same 2 BR house). Their combined income is pretty good (>100k) so they too can buy middle-class houses.

6/03/2006 05:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 6:11 points out that higher income [legal] immigrants and visa holders should benefit housing market stability/prices; however, based on job gains numbers, can't we assume that these folks are simply holding jobs that were formerly held by the natives?

Therefore, no overall impact.

Pat

6/03/2006 05:20:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"1: High-income experts."

Soon to be replaced by resources in Bombay and Shanghai.


"dollar is cheap to them so buying a house is not a big problem."

Well, if they only make $150K, why would they have less of a problem than everyone else in Northern NJ who makes the same?

The reality is, they're signing up for the same toxic loans as everyone else, and they're not immune from foreclosure, just like everyone else.

Immigrants are not a special case in any way, and will feel the pain like all others as the bubble continues to deflate.

6/03/2006 05:23:00 PM  
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6/03/2006 05:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon 6:11 here again..

Soon to be replaced by resources in Bombay and Shanghai.

This may be true for programmers et cetera but in our case I really doubt it is going to happen. The people I was talking about are in management roles and biz dev and marketing. This was totally new office so they didn't replace anybody. So the end result was that about 100 new high-income people searching for a house with a pile of euros. (Besides, even if they all lose their jobs tomorrow they have still bought a house. My point is that they have created extra demand in housing market). I doubt this office is an isolated example.

Well, if they only make $150K, why would they have less of a problem than everyone else in

I didn't claim that they are in way in a better position than natives (except if you have 400k in euros because you sold your house in UK or France it is pretty good start here with decent income.). I was merely pointing that high-income immigrants have created extra demand and many have a lot of euros in savings so they have been able or willing to buy houses even in the peak market.

6/03/2006 05:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No job growth in this economy.

Flat. Zilch. No income growth.

No net effect of immigrants.

Es macht nicht.

Pat

6/03/2006 05:44:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Besides, even if they all lose their jobs tomorrow they have still bought a house."

You mean they paid cash for a house?

Are they immune from being underwater and unable to sell?

And I can assure you that management consulting is also starting to move offshore. (But IT professionals also make $100K to $150K.)

Immigrants are no different, and this bubble was created by low interest rates, combined with speculators. Any other factors are probably below 10% of the equation.

Now if an immigrant buys in Summit, that's a different story, and they're safe from decreasing prices.

;-)

6/03/2006 06:00:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

In fact, many of them had >$500k in cash because they sold a house in Europe so that's decent start even if not enough for a house here.

Anyway, I try repeat this again:
My point was that high-income immigrants have created a lot of extra demand in housing market.

I don't want to debate whether these jobs will be terminated or outsources. That's not an issue. Why are you obsessed with it?
Let's agree that they will all be eliminated tomorrow. My point is still valid.

6/03/2006 06:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fun summer reading
http://www.njpp.org/rpt_offshoring.html

6/03/2006 06:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How to lowball a seller...

1. Put out lowball offers on multiple homes. If one bites you're ready to start dealing. Chances are if you put in a lowball offer all sellers will return with a number they feel comfortable with. (Which probably won't be close to your price) When they do show them what their neighbor is willing to sell for. There's a good chance when they see the neighbors number they'll try to go lower. This is the reverse of a bidding war. ;-)

2. The second way to lowball a seller requires two buyers working together. The buyer that does not want the house to be lowballed submits a REALLY low offer. What this does is shock the seller into a new realty of what their house is worth. If the seller accepts the offer you "gracefully" try to bow out but, while doing so have buyer number two submit an offer at the same price. The seller will forget about buyer one and sell to buyer two. If the owners don't accept the offer you play with them a little then get out. At this point you "softened" the seller up to accepting a lower offer. This is where buyer two comes in knowing how low the seller will go. ;-)

*The second technique is something only buyers can do together (not agents) and it won't make friends if people find out about what your doing. So don't ever tell people how you got the house for the price you did.

6/03/2006 06:40:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you get three bidders doing number 2 (and I don't mean in the bathroom) will that REALLY mess with the seller?

6/03/2006 06:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon @ 7:14

what??

So all these immigrants you are talking about for some reason started to immigrate during the second quarter of 2003 and continued to do so until the third quarter of 2005?? …and that's why the housing prices shot up during the two year period?

Can you spell out the reason why they suddenly stopped immigrating to the US during the third quarter of 2005 causing a record inventory of unsold homes?

6/03/2006 06:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can you spell out the reason why they suddenly stopped immigrating to the US during the third quarter of 2005 causing a record inventory of unsold homes?

?
I did not claim anything like that.
I was merely pointing out the role immigrants have had in recent years. Immigrants are not just low-income illegals. Also, they continue to arrive here and they may be more likely (perhaps more ignorant about the bubble and maybe having more cash) to buy a house.

Also, many illegals are pooling together and buying a house.

I'm feeling that you have a personal problem with this but I can't figure out why and what.

6/03/2006 07:52:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sheesh...stop ONLY focusing on immigrants. lets talk market trends, financial & employment directions and resetting of arm loans on the horizon :)

6/03/2006 08:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think we are missing a big point about this immigrant question. They are already priced into the market, because they already bought. What's the point of arguing? Unless you think there is some big wave of immigrants coming to buy more homes?

As has been said here before, more people left NJ last year than settled here, taxes continue to go up, job wage growth is stagnating, NJ is having problems attracking new businesses, etc.....leading me to believe that economic growth and Housing Demand in NJ will drop.

CF also brought up an interesting point; if immigrants came here for their job, what's keeping them here if the job goes elsewhere?

Andy

6/03/2006 08:36:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon @9:21,

I totally agree.

Andy

PS my wife is a legal immigrant but we don't own a home!

6/03/2006 08:39:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...


As has been said here before, more people left NJ last year than settled here,


I don't believe that part is correct. The Census bureau has made those estimates, but these are just estimates. When the actual census is done in 2010. I think the Census bUreau will find that their estimates have been underestimating population growth in NJ.

6/03/2006 08:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This has nothing to do with housing prices, but a month or so ago I complained on this website that Morristown was just becoming a town of banks. Did anyone see the Daily Record today where the lead story was "Morristown council may ban banks"?

6/03/2006 08:47:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"My point was that high-income immigrants have created a lot of extra demand in housing market."

Several others here disagree, including myself.

They make up a tiny percentage of the bubble factor.

Where I'm looking 25% of the houses on the market right now are from speculators.

6/03/2006 09:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chech this. Its really interesting;
MLS#2111308 OLP 499K expired at 419K
Appeared again as MLS# 2283679 at 419K without mentioning OLP.

Is this some sort of trick?

6/03/2006 09:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Sugee said...

This is some flip:

From Domania (latest sale):
X property sold May 06 for $402,500.

From Taxrecords.com (previous sale):
Sold: $184,000.00 on 04/27/2001

X property sits on a Width: 52 X Depth: 100, and house built in 1948.

6/03/2006 09:25:00 PM  
Anonymous Sugee said...

Property Y: Land Width: 46 X Depth: 100, house built 1940.

Domania:
May 06 $485,000

Taxrecords:
Sold: $260,000.00 on 03/22/2002

6/03/2006 09:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is their a way to search NYC tax records for apts?

6/03/2006 10:54:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Anyone know what a gin-rickey is?
Mmmm, good.

Anyway, here's one for perusal. To sum up, it's the media catching up to what WE knew all along.

Dangerous liaisons
Exotic mortgages remain popular despite increasing risks

http://tinyurl.com/h8k3u

"In our changing market, from unprecedented low rates to a steady rising of interest rates, these varieties of loan programs have become much more popular," says Bill Callanan, a partner with Mortgage Management Systems, a San Francisco mortgage broker. "But if you're scraping nickels together, they're not for you."
While traditional long-term, fixed-rate mortgages remain the loan of choice for the majority of home buyers, more borrowers are also shopping for interest-only loans, pay-option ARMs and hybrid fixed-ARM loans.
That's particularly true in high-cost housing markets, where taking one of those loans may be the only way to afford a house."

Copy & paste the link for more:
http://tinyurl.com/h8k3u

G-nite.
But wait, anyone know what a REAL Tom Collins is? Gin, real lemon, real sugar and seltzer.
No "Tom Collins" mix or commercial sour mix!
Gin, real lemon, real sugar and seltzer.

You have?

Okay, anyone hear of an Aviation Cocktail?

Mmmm, GOOD.

6/03/2006 11:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ok, let me see if I did this right to check past tax records.

Ex. on forsalebyowner.com

I searched Ft. Lee. Picked this place, http://www.forsalebyowner.com/show-listing.php?currentlySearching=1&iListingID=20609918
adress is 296 Slocum Way.

I goto taxrecords.com, under Bergen county, it says:

296 Slocum Way, Fort Lee Boro, NJ
Block: 3005 Lot: 5
Width: 50 X Depth: 100 Land: 308,000.00 Build: 116,100.00 Total $424,100.00
Sold: $0.00 on **/**/**** BOOK: PAGE:
$0.00 - **/**/**** $0.00 - **/**/**** $0.00 - **/**/****
Census Tract Info

Update: 03/22/2006

so this guy paid, 424?
i know this soundsd really stupid, but did I do this right, and how come other properties don't show up here (for Bergen county anyway)?

thanks for input...

6/03/2006 11:42:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

How about these lovely driveways:

http://tinyurl.com/ffjch

6/04/2006 01:01:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unrealtor:

Those driveways cost extra. I think they are for people with untrainable three and four year olds.

The manual that comes with them explains that you take out a $500K dependent life policy, then buy little Disney scooters, and just let your kids have fun at rush hour.

Pat

6/04/2006 04:53:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Anon @ 12:42,

$424 is the assessed value, not the sales price.

grim

6/04/2006 05:18:00 AM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

Offtopic: Came across this blog site from Assembly man Mike Panter.

http://mikepanter.blogspot.com/

Good to know that some Politicians are using this great way for communication.

On earlier discussions, The Demand/Supply situation is out of whack in NJ. I agree with many posts earlier on High Income immigrants adding more pressure on demand side. I know, I am one of them. In 2000, they change immmigration law for Skilled immigrant, which gave Green Card to many of us. Once again, I know, as I worked on the legislation. The supply has not kept pace with increased demand in NNJ.

6/04/2006 08:06:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Question:
can realtors help influence a particular area keeping prices high or does it come down to buyers still willing to overpay? although the high end of this area seems to be slowing (lake mohawk)
Grim any recent numbers on this area would be a great help. houses in my range the low end are selling and close to asking i might add. i dont know if its people relocating from more expensive areas or the fact that its summer and people are buying
vacation homes. any input would be helpful
thanks

6/04/2006 08:07:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bob SEZ!!!!!!!


BOYCOTT CHATHAM!

Their snoots are raised to high for us little people.

These Greedy money gurbbing sellers will get the message in 1 year.

40% lower bids in Chatham.

Stick It to'em!


BOYCOTT CHATHAM HOUSES!

BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA

Bob

6/04/2006 08:17:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's payback time for Starving realtors and Greedy Money grubbing Sellers telling you to sign up for monthly Mtg slavery.

NO MAAS!

BABABABABABABABA

BOOOOOOOOOYCOTTaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhh Ponzi Houses Prices


Bob

6/04/2006 08:29:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gotta love Bob's tenacity :) whats next a little armband about the "real-estate-boycott-nazis" ? (of course im not being racial here -- just kidding) if this movement to boycott gains any momentum?

6/04/2006 08:51:00 AM  
Blogger Delaware Beach Man said...

It's hard to leave the open house because the RE agents are so bored that they won't let you go. When I told one that I rented, she said, "Why are you doing that?" I said that I wanted to know the area better.

6/04/2006 09:08:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Tell the Bored Commissioned starved manipulator that prices are a RIPOFF and you have no interest in signing up for monthly slavery.

Boooooooooycott Chatham Houses

Booooooycott Ponzi Priced houses

Bob

6/04/2006 09:44:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gluts & Gluts & Gluts of inventory is PILING UP on the clearance racks and the Greedy money grubbing sellers do not realize it yet.
Grom GSML site
"Welcome to the new home of Garden State MLS’ public search engine. Currently, there are 30,081 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site. For Residential Properties that are Multiple Listed with Garden State.."


Boycott Chatham Houses

Boycott Ponzi priced houses!

Cheers

Bob

6/04/2006 09:47:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you buy now and in 2 years your house goes down 30% it's your own fault.

The facts have been laid out here by the Grimmeister. want to listen or be a bagholding underwater mtg slave?

Your choice.

Boycott Chatham Hosues
and Boycott Ponzi House prices

Cheers

Bob

6/04/2006 10:04:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

5 houses going into foreclosure in CHATHAM!
2 in mendham!!!!

HAHAHAHHAHA

Immunity to bankruptcy and foreclosures.

HA!!!!!!!!

It will hit every town.

Do NOT BUY A HOUSE NOW UNLESS YOU GET IT AT LEAST 30% cheaper than the summer 2005 peak prices. Not some manipulated ponzi price.

You buy you are a fool.

Good luck

Cheers

Bob

6/04/2006 10:23:00 AM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

The housing price has to come down and I would much prefer soft landing. I don't want to see people in misery. But most of all, I don't want our economy to tank. After all, I and my kids have to live through it. I am not sure it's true or not but someone once told me that 20% of the NY Stock Exchange is based upon construction related businesses. If the real estate market tanks real fast, we have much more to worry about than buying houses cheap.

6/04/2006 10:38:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gotta love Bob's tenacity :) whats next a little armband about the "real-estate-boycott-nazis"?

It's quite a stretch comparing those who don't want to pay double the price for a house, to those who throw people into ovens.

6/04/2006 11:07:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

As Rain Man says, lots and lots of price drops:

MLS 2279186
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1060259984

May 17, 2006 - $825,000

Jun 01, 2006 - $810,000

Jun 04, 2006 - $799,000

6/04/2006 11:41:00 AM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

well boys and girls ive looked over the sunday open houses.

i've never seen so many and price
cuts dont seem their yet.

Many prices holding at very high
levels despite 3ok inventory,and
length of time on the market.

Bergen county seems to be holding up.

6/04/2006 11:48:00 AM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

How to lowball a seller...

1. Put out lowball offers on multiple homes. If one bites you're ready to start dealing. Chances are if you put in a lowball offer all sellers will return with a number they feel comfortable with. (Which probably won't be close to your price) When they do show them what their neighbor is willing to sell for. There's a good chance when they see the neighbors number they'll try to go lower. This is the reverse of a bidding war. ;-)

2. The second way to lowball a seller requires two buyers working together. The buyer that does not want the house to be lowballed submits a REALLY low offer. What this does is shock the seller into a new realty of what their house is worth. If the seller accepts the offer you "gracefully" try to bow out but, while doing so have buyer number two submit an offer at the same price. The seller will forget about buyer one and sell to buyer two. If the owners don't accept the offer you play with them a little then get out. At this point you "softened" the seller up to accepting a lower offer. This is where buyer two comes in knowing how low the seller will go. ;-)

*The second technique is something only buyers can do together (not agents) and it won't make friends if people find out about what your doing. So don't ever tell people how you got the house for the price you did.


Funny how some posters here talk about underhanded tactics of realtors and mortgage brokers, yet their silence is deafening when something as lowdown and dirty as the suggestion above is posted.

For this sort of thing to be suggested is an outrage and downright shameful.

6/04/2006 12:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nothing wrong with lowballing someone....

6/04/2006 12:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can anyone give me some information about Mount Olive - is it a nice town, and how are the schools - anything a nonresident should know before looking for a home there... next year of course ;)

6/04/2006 01:09:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

reinvestor @ 1:08

look who is preaching about ethics! LOL

6/04/2006 01:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can you recommend good places to find a good rental in NJ with easy commuting to Manhattan and neighborhood in which you can actually walk around, go to restaurants and coffee shop (to buy that $500/gallon coffee). So basically, I'm looking for a Manhattan like neighborhood with lower rents. (or is this fantasy only?)

6/04/2006 01:15:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

addition to above: I meant public transportation commuting, I don't have a car and I don't want to own such.

6/04/2006 01:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

MLS ID#: 2281531

19 Huron Drive, Chatham, NJ 07928

This house was originally priced at
1.32 million under another MLS for 100 days. Then it was reduced to 1.195 million for two weeks before finally coming down to 1.05 million.

Hey guys, we are talking about a 21% reduction here in a top neighbourhood.

Anyone knows their story?

6/04/2006 01:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon @ 2:47 PM
I see a house (#77) on the same road sold for 1.3 M last year. Are #77 and #19 similar houses?

If the answer is no, then #19 is trying to list a unreasonable price and later post a reduction in order to make the reduced offer look good. Lot of this happening out there.

#29 sold for 800K in mid 2004.

source-
www.realestateabc.com

6/04/2006 02:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ok Grim, stupid question.
(keep in mind I am not educated in real estate, never owned or bought anything, I've rented my whole life). What is the difference between assessed value and sales price? and how does this help one figure out what someone paid for a place?

Any input on this anyone? Thank you.

6/04/2006 02:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ANON @ 2:15PM

I was in the same situation and found that towns like hoboken and jersey city (DOWNTOWN) really fit the bill. Unfortunately I have and need a car for work and was unwilling to pay 1900-2300 a month rent with a spot. After looking at the surrounding areas I rented a 1b with one spot in Weehawken for 1300 with heat and cold water included. I really enjoy the town very much and the low rent has allowed me to save enough for a good down payment (in a year).

I have recently noticed an increase of “yuppies” walking their miniature terriers and young couples with infants moving in. So, I am not certain if the rents will stay the same in the longterm.

Just my .02

AM

6/04/2006 02:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Funny how some posters here talk about underhanded tactics of realtors and mortgage brokers, yet their silence is deafening when something as lowdown and dirty as the suggestion above is posted.


...OH PLEASE!!! At least we don't make a living out of lying!

6/04/2006 02:55:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

many realtors do .

and they can't take it when the
going gets ruff. (as in ruff times).

plus , they got no staying power.

6/04/2006 03:48:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

...OH PLEASE!!! At least we don't make a living out of lying!

I don't make a living by lying and I DO have a problem with people taking advantage of a seller by sending in a fake buyer to get a lower price on a home purchase. Again, this sort of thing is borderline fraud and I'm not going to let that suggestion pass without comment.

Besides which, the standoff we're having here in the market is not permanent. There's a lot of pent up demand as evidenced by the desire by most posting here to own a home. Everyone needs a place to call their own and I'm betting that many buyers will throw in the towel and start buying before long. There's not going to be a wholesale giveaway of homes under any circumstances.

6/04/2006 04:04:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

REINVESTOR101 @ 5:04

Even if some buyers 'throw the towel' you will need extra special 'reinvestors' to clear up the 30K+ inventory + all those homes that have been pulled out of the market.


Anyways, why are you wasting your time on this board?? Why don’t you attend those open houses, buy couple of hundred houses so that you can later sell them to us for a decent profit?? I thought you are a ‘RE Investor’ or is it just the name? Stop wasting your time here preaching about ethics... buy those houses at these 'rock bottom' prices before they are all gone.

6/04/2006 04:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We'll see.
Remember 1989?
Bill

6/04/2006 04:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

reinvestor101 - stop preaching here. If you don't like our opinion of most realtors (which is true) there's other boards to post on I s'pose. I dont think any of the folks were taking a potshot directly at you...that being said i've had some pretty bad experiences with ALL 3 realtors that I used last year -- how DO i form an opinion of any positivity on this one?

6/04/2006 05:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Reinvestor- don't feel so bad - I was the one who asked (tongue in cheek, mind you) why not have TWO shillers, then, and really play with the seller??

I also felt a pang of guilt reading the instructions on low-balling.

I personally would never do it. Couldn't look my 4 year old in the eye.

But, come on - if fantasizing about it me feel better after all the sour grapes I've endured over the last few years trying to buy a home, please don't deny me this little daydream.

Pat

6/04/2006 05:45:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

- stop preaching here. If you don't like our opinion of most realtors (which is true) there's other boards to post on I s'pose. I dont think any of the folks were taking a potshot directly at you...that being said i've had some pretty bad experiences with ALL 3 realtors that I used last year -- how DO i form an opinion of any positivity on this one?

First of all, I'm not a realtor. Second, there's plenty of good real estate professionals out there, perhaps you need to interview them better. Lastly, although people may wish to disparage investors and real estate agents, please be advised that neither of these groups is suggesting that fake buyers be used to lowball an offer. There has been no one who has called that poster on that, so I have to step up and remind folks of ethical behavior whether it's liked or not.

There has to be some balance here.

Of course, another topic would revolve around whether all this market disruption is what true americans ought be doing. Rather than digress from my central point, I'll save my comments on that for later.

6/04/2006 05:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Holy cow.

True Americans?

All this market disruption is not what true Americans should be doing?

True Americans threw a bunch of tea in a harbor, remember, or there would be no Americans.

Sheesh. As a Mets fan, I'm taking that one on the chin and swinging back with all 5'0" inches of me.

I must have misinterpreted your comment.

Taking a deep breath.

Pat

6/04/2006 05:59:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

I personally would never do it. Couldn't look my 4 year old in the eye.

I'm glad that you have the integrity not to ever consider this

But, come on - if fantasizing about it me feel better after all the sour grapes I've endured over the last few years trying to buy a home, please don't deny me this little daydream

I've said previously that I really didn't appreciate the level of resentment that existed among people prior to reading this board. There's a class war being played out right here. Look, people who owned houses and sold houses had nothing to do with price levels and bidding. It was you and others who bid and fought for houses. What was a seller supposed to do at the top of the market with people bidding but sell to the highest bidder? The people that need to be resented are not the sellers, investors and real estate agents; the culprits were the other buyers you were competing against. You and other buyers lost out against them but I don't hear anyone complaining about the other buyers.

We had nothing to do with bidding and house inflation other than profiting from it.

6/04/2006 06:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

reinvestor101 - 7:02

You and other buyers lost out against them but I don't hear anyone complaining about the other buyers.


Why did those buyers bid the way they did? Who encouraged them to bid that way? Who preached these buyers about the virtues of owning a home by mortgaging their future? Was it their realtor? The answer is a unanimous YES.

So, should we complain against the realtors? I think we are doing just that.


Talking about ethics - How many times have you advised your clients against buying a over priced property?

6/04/2006 06:18:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

folks, the future direction of this market is quite simple to comprehend. don't get caught up in all the doublespeak you hear from realtors and homebuilders. the bottom line is inventory continues to skyrocket. we have 30k+ here in NJ alone. there are NOT enough buyers to clear this inventory out at today's elevated prices. the deviation from income levels is too wide. even if interest rates stay right where they are we'll still have a growing problem.

you have nothing to lose waiting a bit longer to see where prices go. they'll either go flat (and you'll see pigs flying) or they'll go down. comparing list price to final asking means nothing as a seller can list at whatever they feel like so don't focus here. watch the inventory continue to grow and pricing pressures mount.

6/04/2006 06:34:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

Why did those buyers bid the way they did? Who encouraged them to bid that way? Who preached these buyers about the virtues of owning a home by mortgaging their future? Was it their realtor? The answer is a unanimous YES

Just where did personal responsibility go? Are buyers just like sheep who can't think save for what someone pours into their minds? Are buyers like some wind-up doll that's automatically programmed to bid just because someone tells you that you must?

Give me a break.

The buyers who bid up this market have absolutely no one but themselves to blame for being priced out and it's nothing but transferance to blame real estate agents and investors for market conditions. If you want to resent someone, resent the people you were bidding against. Don't blame those who profited from buyer behavior.

BTW, I am not a real estate agent.

6/04/2006 06:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh, Richard:

Your macro-economic approach is easy to love.

Supply is greater than demand.

The only problem I'm having is knowing when to jump in. At what month is the x-axis going to cross the y-axis?

I wish I knew where my Econ 101 prof. was today so I could ask him what month to buy in!!

Drinking wine.

Pat

6/04/2006 06:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

reinvestor101 @ 7:43

Just where did personal responsibility go? Are buyers just like sheep who can't think save for what someone pours into their minds?


Were these buyers feeding 3% of the sales cost to the peanut gallery??

Isn't it the responsibility of the realtors to advise clients against making bad decisions?
If it is not, then what exactly do the realtors do to EARN the 3% commission?
Don't tell me realtors help in finding properties.

6/04/2006 06:51:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

Were these buyers feeding 3% of the sales cost to the peanut gallery??

Isn't it the responsibility of the realtors to advise clients against making bad decisions?
If it is not, then what exactly do the realtors do to EARN the 3% commission?
Don't tell me realtors help in finding properties.


I purchase a vehicle once every 8-10 years or so. When I get ready to buy one, I arrive at the car dealer having done my research. I know precisely how much I'm going to pay and the financing has already been lined up. Basically, no one "sells" me a car, I "purchase" one. I don't look to the salesman for unbiased advice. His job is to carry out my instructions. I'm in charge and I insist on operating that way. They hate to see me coming.

Why should buying real estate be any different?

The bottom line is that the buyer is responsible for what he pays and his own decision making.

Buyers collectively bid themselves out of this market. They've no one but themselves to blame. Investors and real estate agents didn't force anyone to bid.

6/04/2006 07:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

reinvetor101 @ 8:10

Why should buying real estate be any different?


Comparing car sales men with Realtors is like comparing apples and oranges

1] The price of the car is set by the manufacturer. The sale price is about 5% above the invoice price.

2] If all the manufacturers decide to increase the price of cars, the government will order an enquiry to assess possible price gouging. Those guilty of price gouging will be penalized.

3] A car sales man will never tell you that the value of the car will keep increasing.

I could go on and on over the differences.

The point is realtors are to blame!

6/04/2006 07:31:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

I wish I knew where my Econ 101 prof. was today so I could ask him what month to buy in!!

Pat,

The problem with a bubble is that it is fundamentally irrational. It involves group human psychology, which is difficult to model. You asked “how many months”, I think answer will be in terms of years, not months. I’m sure others here will disagree. The truth is, no one really knows.

The herd has clearly shifted direction, but no one really knows how far down it will go, for how long or in what timeframe. My advise, and I do intend to practice what I preach, is to buy a house when you can comfortably pay the mortgage (a real old fashion mortgage) on a house that you really like and will be happy in for a long time, just in case you jumped in too soon.

6/04/2006 07:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mount Olive? Anybody? Anybody?

6/04/2006 07:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

reinvetor101 @ 8:10

...and the most important difference is that when you go house hunting, there are two realtors one who is helping the seller and the other who is supposed to be helping the buyer and both of them together make 6% [3% + 3%] in commission. I’m blaming the buyer side realtor making 3% commission.

When you go buy a car you have one sales agent - this one is helping the seller.

6/04/2006 07:59:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

Anon,

You're presenting a strawman argument here by shifting blame to realtors for buyer behavior. It's clear that you don't like realtors for some reason. Anyway, I'm not going to let you get away with this strawman sort of argument. My response is below:

Comparing car sales men with Realtors is like comparing apples and oranges

1] The price of the car is set by the manufacturer. The sale price is about 5% above the invoice price.


Does that apply to used cars as well? Used cars have no invoice price but are priced based on the laws of supply and demand. Moreover, there are many times that new cars will sell at a premium simply because demand for particular models is high and it's not unheard of that people bid for cars. I think that the supply/demand function for vehicles can be analogous to that of real estate, notwithstanding your attempt to dismiss the similarity.

2] If all the manufacturers decide to increase the price of cars, the government will order an enquiry to assess possible price gouging. Those guilty of price gouging will be penalized.

Excuse me? Manufacturers of automobiles would increase retail prices mainly on supply/demand considerations. Real estate agents didn't price gouge anyone. Buyers price gouged themselves by fighting and trying to outbid each other. It was you guys who priced yourselves out of this market.

3] A car sales man will never tell you that the value of the car will keep increasing.

But they'll certainly say that a particular car will hold its value better than another model. They'll suggest that a particular model is safer than another model. They'll emphasize certain features because they know that people buy features rather than look at practical auto usage. Basically, their job is the sell you. A real estate agent's job is to sell you. Salesmen aren't generally the source for unbiased advice. It's the buyer's job to do his homework.

The point is realtors are to blame!

I suspose it's the realtors job to follow the average buyer into to the bathroom to ensure he wipes his behind! Just what is the buyer responsible for that the realtor isn't?

Buyers are to blame for pricing themselves out of this market. Stop blaming realtors and investors for what buyers did to themselves.

6/04/2006 08:11:00 PM  
Blogger rymingrealtor said...

Lastly, although people may wish to disparage investors and real estate agents, please be advised that neither of these groups is suggesting that fake buyers be used to lowball an offer.
Gee thats funny I have been asked by sellers to say there are other bidders with higher offers - had to explain how I couldn't - and why I wouldnt
KL

6/04/2006 08:28:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

reinvestor101 -
You still haven't answered my post @ 8:59

The feeling is mutual. I've no plans of letting you take us on a ride either.


I think that the supply/demand function for vehicles can be analogous to that of real estate, notwithstanding your attempt to dismiss the similarity.

There you go again, contradicting yourself.
Prices are dictated by inventory. For the example you mentioned, buyers will pay a premium when inventory of a new car is low but the price imbalance will correct when the inventory imbalance corrects. Isn't that what you said? Or do you still pay a premium when you go buy your car just because there was a premium on the same model sometime back?

Applying the same rule to RE inventory, why shouldn't the 35K inventory [30K +FSBO] force the price imbalance to correct?


Excuse me? Manufacturers of automobiles would increase retail prices mainly on supply/demand considerations. Real estate agents didn't price gouge anyone. Buyers price gouged themselves by fighting and trying to outbid each other. It was you guys who priced yourselves out of this market.


I'm being forced to repeat my question again and again. Why didn't the buyer side realtors not advise clients against bidding for high priced houses? Did the buyer side realtor earn their 3% commission? What did the buyers get by selecting a realtor and thereby guaranteeing him/her a 3% commission?



They'll emphasize certain features because they know that people buy features rather than look at practical auto usage. Basically, their job is the sell you.


Read my post at 8:59. There is one agent involved while selling a car and this guy works for the car dealer. While selling a house there are two realtors and one of them is supposed to help the buyer make a more informed decision. My question again, did the buyer side realtor help his clients make the correct decision?

6/04/2006 08:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Michelle said...

Anon 8:43,

I can't offer much on Mt. Olive excet for a couple of anecdotal observations.

My cousin moved there last yeat and loves it. Seems like the prices are more rational than in other towns.

There seems to be a goodly amount of traffic getting to and through there now. Commuting on 80 can be treacherous.

The proximity to the town of Chester is a big plus in my book for the cute shops and decent restaurants. On the other hand, it has lots of good suburban conveniences like Lowe's in town.

My comments aren't worth much but I felt bad for you getting lost in what has become a repeat episode of "Weekend Open Discussion Wars: REInvestor Strikes Back".

We can't expect the remakes to be very good as the original really wasn't.

6/04/2006 09:26:00 PM  
Anonymous dl said...

Anon and reinvestor:

While it is certainly true that the buyers are, at the end of the day responsible for their own behavior and the bidding wars, there is something wrong with a system were the buyers agent is only paid after the buyer makes a purchase, and makes more if the purchase is bigger. It is the same problem with "financial advisors" who are paid from the commission on purchases of funds, obviously they have a conflict of interest, as do real estate buyers agents under the current system, especially when real estate agents are privy to protected information, therefore forcing buyers to use them. The only fair system would be for buyers agents to be paid a fixed fee by the buyers themselves, plus perhaps a bonus after successful completion of a sale.
It is almost ridiculous to expect someone to act ethically when they are a "dual agent".

reinvestor:

"Everyone needs a place to call their own and I'm betting that many buyers will throw in the towel and start buying before long."

I disagree although you make an assumption very common among worried real estate investors and sellers. Everyone NEEDS a roof over their heads and that need can be met just as easily by renting, especially when home prices are essentially unaffordable. The urge to own is based on want, not need and if that want requires the purchaser to later go into bancruptcy, or give up food, I'm willing to bet they can wait.

6/04/2006 09:30:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

You still haven't answered my post @ 8:59

Anon, I see you like to play "dodge ball". I put a question to you as to the buyer's responsibility and you've not answered it. It's a very simple and direct question. What is the buyer responsible for that the real estate agent isn't? Please do try to answer it.

There you go again, contradicting yourself.
Prices are dictated by inventory. For the example you mentioned, buyers will pay a premium when inventory of a new car is low but the price imbalance will correct when the inventory imbalance corrects. Isn't that what you said? Or do you still pay a premium when you go buy your car just because there was a premium on the same model sometime back?


This is a thinly veiled attempt to twist my words and to also pull a sleight of hand move by trying to change the argument. Whatever.

Supply can not be considered the only determinate of price without due consideration to demand. Pricing is dictated by the interplay of supply and demand, rather than supply alone. Hence, supply can be quite low for something, but if there's little demand for the item, tight supplies are irrelevant.

Applying the same rule to RE inventory, why shouldn't the 35K inventory [30K +FSBO] force the price imbalance to correct?

A price correction can not be predicted with certainty as the shape of the demand curve is really not known at this point. For example, there's a lot of pent up demand as exhibited by all of the complaining on this site about house prices. We don't know how this pent up demand will play out. It could very well be that buyers bid themselves out of the market again as they've done in the past.

I'm being forced to repeat my question again and again. Why didn't the buyer side realtors not advise clients against bidding for high priced houses?

And I once again am forced to tell you that real estate agents aren't wet nurses with the goal of providing buyers diaper changes and bibs. Buyers are responsible for their actions. The agent is getting paid to sell or find a house for the buyer, not to wipe his behind every time he's got to go to the bathroom.


Read my post at 8:59. There is one agent involved while selling a car and this guy works for the car dealer. While selling a house there are two realtors and one of them is supposed to help the buyer make a more informed decision. My question again, did the buyer side realtor help his clients make the correct decision?

I read it and see my response above. When are you going to answer my question about the buyer's responsibility and culpabiliy for being priced out?

6/04/2006 09:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Went to a family party today. A cousin from Neshanic Station is just putting his house on the market for $599K. His realtor told him it will probably take 4 to 6 months to sell.

jw

6/04/2006 09:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

dl @ 10:30

I agree. The same applies to separation of "investment banking" and "Stock Analysts" after the stock bubble in 2000.

6/04/2006 09:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

reinvestor101 @

Your behavior contradicts your statement claim not to be a realtor.

Have you given up comparing a Car sales man with a realtor? Wasn't that the basis for your attempted defense against buyer side realtors?



The agent is getting paid to sell or find a house for the buyer


I don't know what you are talking about! All the realtors me and my friends know about send us an incompressible list of houses to select from. Most of those who end up buying, find the houses on their own. If i want a list of houses, i can get it from a website and don't need to pay someone a commission. We pay the commission so that realtors can advice us. When i go to a financial advisor i want him to correct mistakes in my portfolio not just sit there and say 'it's your problem'.

And I once again am forced to tell you that real estate agents aren't wet nurses
Don't belittle wet nurses. They EARN their living unlike buyer side realtors.

6/04/2006 10:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

My latest conspiracy theory is that the housing market is being manipulated by helium producers - they're stock's gotta be way up with all those balloons out there!

Boycott open houses - buy Helium!

;)
PbW

6/04/2006 10:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

REINVESTOR101

It's funny how REinvestor cannot admit the amount of corruption and unethical behavior permeating throughout the Real estate business.

It's all coming out. And I have found only 1 good realtor in my years. It looks like KL is an honest one also.

BOYCOTT CHATHAM HOUSES!

Boycott ponzi Scam Priced houses

Don't be RIPPED OFF and DON"T SIGN UP FOR MONTHLY SLAVE mtg Payments

Bob

6/05/2006 06:30:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

When I read KL's comment above, I was sure I would see a string of replies related to it.. But strangely, there were none.

So let me post it again..

Gee thats funny I have been asked by sellers to say there are other bidders with higher offers - had to explain how I couldn't - and why I wouldnt
KL


So we have evidence that sellers are asking their agents to do something unethical. In this situation, the agent said no. Anyone care to wager a guess as to how many agents say yes to this? Or worse, actually suggest it to sellers?

grim

6/05/2006 06:44:00 AM  
Blogger NJGal said...

I second Grim on that - KL, do you know of any agents who HAVE done this? I think we'll see a lot of this soon, as sellers are just not going to be willing to accept that bidding wars are ending.

6/05/2006 07:14:00 AM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

Anon @11:17pm,

I noticed that after all the huffing and puffing, you still have failed to answer my question. This is the third time I'm asking it. What is the buyer responsible for that the real estate agent isn't?

Please don't dodge it. It's a simple and direct question.

6/05/2006 07:29:00 AM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

second Grim on that - KL, do you know of any agents who HAVE done this? I think we'll see a lot of this soon, as sellers are just not going to be willing to accept that bidding wars are ending.

Although one wouldn't be able to gather anything on this other than anecdotal references, I don't doubt that there are a few abuses in this area.

The larger question is how those abuses came to be. If buyers weren't fighting among themselves bidding, what would be the chances of this sort of thing ever coming up?

The bottom line is that buyers, rather than real estate agents and sellers, created this entire scenario with their greed and herd mentality. They were willing to pay anything to get in. Obviously, when you have a situation like that, there will be abuses, however the biggest abuse of buyers has been at their own hands.

6/05/2006 07:38:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

In 2003, I made an offer of $310K on a house listed at $320K. I was told that they received a higher offer from another bidder. Then I offered $320K, and I hoped I would not get caught in a bidding war (very common in 2003). Then I was told that the other bidder did not qualify for a mortgage so the house was mine for $320K. The only reason I increased to $320K was because of the other bidder. The other bidder may have been real, but I felt I should not have had to compete against an offer that was not pre-qualified for a mortgage.

6/05/2006 07:48:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe reinvestor BUT the few REMAINING buyers are


BOYCOTTING!@

SO TO BAD.

INVENTORY PILING UP. 40,000 HOUSE PARTY JUST AROUND THE CORNER IN 3-5 MONTHS IMO.

HOW YOU GONNA SPIN THIS ONE.

IT'S 'NORMAL' OR IT'S 'COOLING'

YEAH!

COOOOOOOOLAPSE!

The economy will SURVIVE like it did 15 years ago after the last real estate BUST!

BOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAA

Bob

6/05/2006 07:50:00 AM  
Blogger rymingrealtor said...

Anyone care to wager a guess as to how many agents say yes to this? Or worse, actually suggest it to sellers?

It happened to me once, but considering I have not worked with that many sellers.. I would think it has happened to others. I have felt when I had the buyer and it was told to us, that perhaps it was not true, but I had to relay what was told to me to my buyers,I always hoped they would not bid higher because of that, most often they wouldnt, sometimes they would. Its only recently that buyers have held tight not budged, and got the price they wanted. But again that was very recently.
Money brings out the worst in alot of people, just not everybody.
KL

6/05/2006 08:03:00 AM  
Blogger rymingrealtor said...

Reinvestor:

This mess was created by many folks, buyers, sellers, appraisers, mortage reps, banks, greenspan, 9-11, realtors, presidents,

The above list may not be complete and may not be in order of relevance.
KL

6/05/2006 08:08:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

a realtor friend of the family told me that the phone didn't ring once in the office yesterday!

Must be because Booyah Bob finally got to everyone

6/05/2006 08:37:00 AM  
Anonymous Michelle said...

REInvestor said:
"The larger question is how those abuses came to be. If buyers weren't fighting among themselves bidding, what would be the chances of this sort of thing ever coming up?"

That's BS. Our house was on the market for some time. Once our offer hadalready been accepted and we were already in contract the agent started making noises about someone who "just HAD to have this house" and was waiting to scoop it up if we did anything like find something wrong during the inspection process. She told us that she didn't even want to tell the sellers about him because they might want to get out of the contract and sell to him instead, and that she had told the guy's agent that he couldn't even see the house.

We felt almost from the get-go that this was bogus. No, I can't SAY that it was bogus for sure, but here's the thing:

THIS IS CLEARLY UNETHICAL on the part of the AGENT. We were in dual agency with her so her fiduciary responsibility is to the SELLER and we were the buyers. ERGO:

- If there WAS another interested party she was unethical in not telling the sellers about them
- If there WASN'T another interested party then she repeatedly told us bald-faced lies.

Explain to me how that makes ME greedy as the buyer, REInvestor.

6/05/2006 08:55:00 AM  
Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

I agree with reinvestor101

If buyers werent willing to pay, the market never would have become what it is now. Buyers and lending institutions are to blame. Good for the people who made a buck or two off of them

6/05/2006 09:11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Re: Lowballing Tactics

Don't you need that fake buyer to enlist the help of a RE Agent to make the offer? And what happens if the seller actually accepts the fake lowball offer? Does the fake buyer pull out? Aren't they bound to the contract?

By the way, the Hisidic community does this all the time in upstate NY (and I'm sure they only use Hisidic realtors) It happened to my friend's in laws.

KS

6/05/2006 09:12:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I was thinking about the Hisidics when this first came up. I have a friend who was selling a house in Lakewood a few years ago. She got one lowball offer and then no others. She found out that the Hisidic community had decided that this buyer is next in line for a home, so they determined a low price and told all the other Hisidics to wait in line for the next house.

6/05/2006 09:19:00 AM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

THIS IS CLEARLY UNETHICAL on the part of the AGENT. We were in dual agency with her so her fiduciary responsibility is to the SELLER and we were the buyers. ERGO:

- If there WAS another interested party she was unethical in not telling the sellers about them
- If there WASN'T another interested party then she repeatedly told us bald-faced lies.

Explain to me how that makes ME greedy as the buyer, REInvestor.


First of all, you weren't able to confirm the whether she was lying to you. You're making an assumption.. Secondly, you were under contract, so no other offers could have been entertained unless something came up in the inspection contingency. Lastly, had the deal fell through, the agent sounds like she was ready to work with the other buyer. Sounds to me that she acted properly by not allowing the other person to see the house. It's hard for me to see what's the problem is here. It sounds like you were treated fairly.

If you had that many reservations about the integrity of the agent, perhaps you should have considered walking away from the deal.

6/05/2006 09:43:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

This post above summarizes the bubble insanity:

"In 2003, I made an offer of $310K on a house listed at $320K. I was told that they received a higher offer from another bidder. Then I offered $320K, and I hoped I would not get caught in a bidding war (very common in 2003). Then I was told that the other bidder did not qualify for a mortgage so the house was mine for $320K. The only reason I increased to $320K was because of the other bidder. The other bidder may have been real, but I felt I should not have had to compete against an offer that was not pre-qualified for a mortgage."


So we have a qualified buyer competing against a ghost -- someone who isn't even qualified.

I hope you rolled back your offer to $310K.

Your first bid should be your "best and final" and let the realtors and sellers choke on their ghosts and their games.

There are hundreds of thousands of dollars at stake folks, people kill for less.

Trust no one, and assume they're trying to rip you off at every step. Even if they're not (unlikely) assume they are, and you'll be better off.

6/05/2006 10:15:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bergen County to Bergen County – What to Do?

I live in a very nice home in Saddle Brook, Bergen County, NJ. I would say that my house is probably worth $575K - $625K, which would make it kind of expensive for Saddle Brook. While it's a nice town, the school system is very average. My wife and I would like to move to a town in the Pascack Valley Region of Bergen Co. (River Vale, Woodcliff Lake, Hillsdale) because of the Blue Ribbon School systems. Most houses we like are in the $775K - $825K range. Does anyone have any suggestions as to what I should do, what economic indicators I should be looking out for before making a move? For that are looking to move into nicer towns/homes/school systems, does it make sense to wait? I can see first time homeowners waiting, but what about someone in my situation?

Thanks in advance,
Rich

6/05/2006 12:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bergen County to Bergen County – What to Do?

I live in a very nice home in Saddle Brook, Bergen County, NJ. I would say that my house is probably worth $575K - $625K, which would make it kind of expensive for Saddle Brook. While it's a nice town, the school system is very average. My wife and I would like to move to a town in the Pascack Valley Region of Bergen Co. (River Vale, Woodcliff Lake, Hillsdale) because of the Blue Ribbon School systems. Most houses we like are in the $775K - $825K range. Does anyone have any suggestions as to what I should do, what economic indicators I should be looking out for before making a move? For that are looking to move into nicer towns/homes/school systems, does it make sense to wait? I can see first time homeowners waiting, but what about someone in my situation?

Thanks in advance,
Rich

6/05/2006 12:54:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"For that are looking to move into nicer towns/homes/school systems, does it make sense to wait? I can see first time homeowners waiting, but what about someone in my situation?"


Say your house is $600K and your move-up house is $800K.

Buy now, and you'll have to come up with the $200K difference.

Now factor in various drops in prices in the next 12 months, and you'll have:

10% drop: $180,000 difference

15% drop: $170,000 difference

20% drop: $160,000 difference


The more prices drop, the less money you'll have to spend, since the more expensive house drops by a larger amount with each decrease in market prices.

6/05/2006 02:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

" I was thinking about the Hisidics "

Yeah, get the jews! They control the world!

What is Hisidic? Sounds like the same anti-semitist moron misspelled Hasadic.

6/05/2006 02:55:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

here it comes the race card,
the minute the truth comes out.

must be a lib

6/05/2006 04:41:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Foul language, racist, sexist, or any other defamatory remarks will not be tolerated.

Messages that violate these rules will be deleted.

Please keep the discussion on topic and clean.

6/05/2006 05:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I went to several open houses this wekend and was surprised when one realtor told me all the negotiation points to use to bid a lower price because the sellers were ready to negotiate.

Does it get better than this? Now, I skeptical and won't make an offer--I'll think about my "best and final."

6/05/2006 08:32:00 PM  
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6/12/2006 10:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

watch "absorption rates" closely. It's a time-tested yardstick for home sales. Does it prove that the Housing Bubble has already popped? You bet it has. Read more ....

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6/22/2006 07:23:00 AM  
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6/24/2006 05:37:00 PM  
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