Monday, July 17, 2006

Foreclosures Accelerating

From Inman News:

Foreclosures accelerate in some areas

ForeclosureS.com says property foreclosures are accelerating in the Midwest, Southeast and New England for different reasons.
...
In New England, rising energy costs, a flat housing market and interest rate hikes are factors that helped drive 3,074 homes in Massachusetts into foreclosure in the last 60 days, ForeclosureS.com reports. Home prices in Massachusetts are off about 4 percent from their 2005 peak, the company said.

The drop in property values "makes it harder for folks being squeezed by rising mortgage payments to sell their way out of foreclosure in an orderly way," said ForeclosureS.com president Alexis McGee.

ForeclosureS.com blames falling property values and rising interest rates for the upswing in foreclosure activity in Georgia and Florida, a situation "exacerbated by the widespread use ... of exotic mortgage products" and high negative amortization.

"People bought homes they really couldn't afford, and now they're losing them as these loans reset to market rates and they can't find affordable refinancing options," McGee said.

26 Comments:

Blogger grim said...

I'm sure you are all waiting anxiously for the release of the PPI data tomorrow morning at 8:30.

I hope all of my econobabble isn't in vain here. Please tell me there are at least a handful of economics geeks reading?

grim

7/17/2006 08:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, grim.

Sometimes I babble after 6:00 p.m., but never fear, I'm right dere witcha.



Pat

7/17/2006 09:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers"

7/17/2006 09:16:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim-geek:

June's #'s will be the last batch of anything relevent until October's reporting of September's #'s.

Until Labor Day, it is going to be difficult to read through all of the seasonal distortion.

I think the Middle East, oil, and hurricanes are going to be most of the story.

The Fed? If they are not hypocrits, they go 5.50%. Things are so flaky, I have no call at this point.

chicago

7/17/2006 09:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BTW..got your dramamine ready?

"June output, capacity use up more than expected

...Economists said markets were distracted by tensions in the Middle East and would look for more insight about the direction of the economy and interest rates from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony before Congress scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday."

Or will markets be too distracted? I know I've been.

Pat

7/17/2006 09:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

...http://tinyurl.com/fqe68

7/17/2006 09:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

yup, I say the Fed goes %5.50, they will take it to %6.00 then we will see a pause.

Nice pullback on the metals and some coal stocks today (FDG is my fav, has a dividen that is way boss), think some people are better of with those than any damn house.

Note to the "big picture people" on this blog. Keep your eyes on Taiwan. China loves that there is tension in middle east and in N. Korea. The eyes of the world are off China now, so they can potentially cause havoc with Taiwan (return to motherland as they say in China).

This is bad for AMerican interests..why? Just think about how many things say "made in Taiwan" if China gets ahold of Taiwan, ouch ...we have major problems, and what could we do as a country....nothing really...
The god damn chinese are the ones buying the T bills and helped feed the RE bubble with red china money (in the form of MBS).

As I use to tell some of my students when I taught a class at Tuck (btw-don't send your kids there), if you understand the times along with the markets, you can make a bucket load of money all the time.
SAS

7/17/2006 09:56:00 PM  
Blogger njresident286 said...

Grim -

The economic indicatars are one of the major reasons I come to this blog. While everyone opinions are great, the econobabble is what lets me formulate my own opinion based on the facts, as well as some of the great info that people like you and chicagofinance provide. I think the numbers are a HUGE part of this bubble.

7/17/2006 10:04:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bob's beligerent bubble babble is why I'm here!

7/17/2006 10:15:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We will know for sure that the market has truly tanked when the lenders who are foreclosing start routinely seeking deficiency judgments against the borrowers. Debtors prison USA!

7/17/2006 10:32:00 PM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

Grim, I read your opening comment and had to add my $.02.

Before you guys lose me, if you could take a couple of lines to lay it down basic-like, that would be great.

You've got a great thing going here and to be sure, I am learning a ton from the back and forth.

Thanks, Grim.

7/17/2006 11:20:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why was the USD up today so much while gold was actually weakening?
I'm puzzled. Gold has not spiked up as much as this before since 1980. Equities have until recently bubbled up again, with the SPX is looking not much different as during the tech bubble days.Housing prices are still creazy compared to average incomes.
I was going to buy our first house in the Ny metro area, but I don't want to put all my savings into it in this market. However there seems to be no other good area to protect my savings while sitting out the bubble.
What are others doing?

7/17/2006 11:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

{{I was going to buy our first house in the Ny metro area, but I don't want to put all my savings into it in this market. However there seems to be no other good area to protect my savings while sitting out the bubble.
What are others doing?}}

Unless you are making in the mid six figures, chances are the most you can afford is a 1600 P.O.S. home from the 1930's with a 2 hour commute to Manhattan. Its amazing that many see buying some P.O.S house for $700,000 or a studio apartment for $599,000 and think that it is some type of accomplishment.

Rents & Home prices are out of control for any one making less than six figures, but meanwhile recent college grads seem to be buying up all the new condos hitting the market in downtown Manhattan on on the Jersey City / Hoboken waterfront.

Look at the best places to live article from CNNFN. There are many other better places to live in America where you aren't juggling 5 figures of credit card debt, outrageous property tax bills, rents in the thousands, the highest electric rates in North America, and working 12-15 hours a day in some corporate hellhole in Manhattan.

7/17/2006 11:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

IMO short-term treasury bills are the most secure way to protect savings while waiting out the bubble. After-tax yields can be better than CDs if you have high state income taxes like NJ since T-bills are exempt from state income taxes. EZ to buy without commission from treasurydirect.gov, fully backed by US Gov. I have been buying 28-day and 90-day notes.

JAY

7/18/2006 12:24:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

...but meanwhile recent college grads seem to be buying up all the new condos hitting the market in downtown Manhattan on on the Jersey City / Hoboken waterfront.


I don't know of any college grads buying anything right now because they are priced out of the market. This assumption is false. In addition, the slaries for recent college grads: undergraduate and graduate are low compared to pre-2001.

Don't know where you are getting your info.

7/18/2006 04:48:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Look at the best places to live article from CNNFN. There are many other better places to live in America where you aren't juggling 5 figures of credit card debt, outrageous property tax bills, rents in the thousands, the highest electric rates in North America, and working 12-15 hours a day in some corporate hellhole in Manhattan.


I tried that...moving out of the area, and six (6) months later I returned because I was bored out of my mind. There is no intelligent life out there!

7/18/2006 04:52:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

{{I tried that...moving out of the area, and six (6) months later I returned because I was bored out of my mind. There is no intelligent life out there!}}

But here you need to make in the six figures to enjoy the life & culture of this area. And image is everything meaning that you are judged by what you wear & what you drive. Many people are just sick and tired of trying to keep up and can't afford to be trend whores.

7/18/2006 07:01:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

{{In addition, the slaries for recent college grads: undergraduate and graduate are low compared to pre-2001.}}

You wouldn't know it by sales at car dealerships, clothing stores & restaurants and clubs in Manhattan not to mention rentals.

Seems like everyone is living the high life with tons of cash to burn and you are looked down upon & ostracized if you choose not to participate.

7/18/2006 07:02:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bababababababa

Housing BUST!

Bob

7/18/2006 07:07:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

SHOW & TELL SOCIETY PAYING THE PIPER.

BABABABABABA

Bob

7/18/2006 07:10:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"There is no intelligent life out there!"


Right, New Jersey is the center of the universe...

7/18/2006 07:27:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Andrew Heiblien has been trying to sell his four-bedroom home in Mystic, Conn., since January. As in many of the small towns that dot the Connecticut shore, the number of for-sale signs in tiny Mystic (pop. 4,001) has doubled since then, area brokers say. Mr. Heiblien, a 46-year-old private ferry operator, says he anticipated a slowing market when he listed the property for $515,000. But, he says, he "never dreamed" he'd need to cut the home's asking price four times before finding a buyer. The property went under contract last week for $405,000. "I really thought the market was stronger when I put the home up for sale," says Mr. Heiblien. "I had to adjust."

7/18/2006 07:34:00 AM  
Anonymous MaryanneNJ said...

don't know of any college grads buying anything right now because they are priced out of the market. This assumption is false. In addition, the slaries for recent college grads: undergraduate and graduate are low compared to pre-2001.

Don't know where you are getting your info.

Oftentimes in Hoboken parents provide a nice downpayment for their "grad" then the "grad" pays the mortgage when they land a job. I came across this a lot when looking in Hoboken. I met several of these moms, dads and grads at open houses, too.

7/18/2006 08:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mr. Oliver:

On grim's other forum is a section on economic basics. Whenever a term is thrown out here, it may be defined in the econ links there, and then you can come here and question effect.
http://forum.njrereport.com/

Economics isn't a hard science (which makes it most interesting to me). The unknown or wildcard factors can have a huge [or zero] impact on any analysis. The human factors - like consumer confidence - can trump even the most positive indicator. I think that's a lot of the discussion going on here.

You can look at supply side, demand side and graph every angle of every number, considering the most refined statistical deviations; but in the final analysis only hindsight is 20/20.

Old salts like SAS have memories that guide their analysis - their challenge is incorporating new wrenches into the toolbox. For example: look at Jack Welch's philosophies falling out of favor. It's only a matter of time before Six Sigma methodology is frowned upon as all too time-consuming, late-to-the-table and internally-focused.

But as you begin to formulate your own deductions, you master your own risk beliefs. This is the development of your personal investment philosophy and will enable to you be both and informed consumer and investor.

Well, maybe at a minimum you'll be able to decide how much money to save for retirement, but it's a start.

Pat

7/18/2006 08:43:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Well, maybe at a minimum you'll be able to decide how much money to save for retirement, but it's a start.

Pat

7/18/2006 09:43:36 AM

15% of each paycheck!

......and invest it with me ;)

7/18/2006 09:56:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Na, chicago..he started late. Isn't he in retail, late 30's, <$200 mm/cds?

He's got a lot of making up to do, plus he's not put enough into long-term risk.

MO should be maxing his K -dollar cost averaging (if he has one). Then he can decrease the % when they have kids (or on the next long upturn-2009?) and ride his low cost base up for a while.

Signed,
Off Topic Queen (Pat)

7/18/2006 10:38:00 AM  

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