Saturday, July 22, 2006

Lowball 6/25 - 7/22 (McGreevy Edition)

Lowball! takes a look at home sales over the past week from a very different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales over the past week and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between asking price and selling price.

The purpose of Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, Lowball! offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.The list does not contain all sales, I hand-pick the most interesting sales from the list. These listings might be the highest dollar drops, biggest percentage reductions, or sales in towns that are thought to still be 'hot'. Please note, even with double digit percentage reductions, these homes are still incredibly overpriced.

We're going to break the list up by county this time:

Bergen County
MLS# 2234107 - Franklin Lakes, NJ
List Price $1,200,000
Sales Price $990,000 (17.5% Lowball)

MLS# 2258689 - Oakland, NJ
List Price $359,000
Sales Price $310,000 (13.6% Lowball)

MLS# 2230388 - Rochelle Park, NJ
List Price $699,000
Sales Price $612,500 (12.4% Lowball)

MLS# 2261027 - Waldwick, NJ
Original List Price $629,000
List Price $589,000
Sales Price $525,000 (10.9% Lowball, 16.5% off OLP)

MLS# 2224433 - Mahwah, NJ
Original List Price $1,399,000
List Price $1,299,000
Sales Price $1,160,000 (10.7% Lowball, 17.1% off OLP)

MLS# 2255102 - Mahwah, NJ
Original List Price $589,900
List Price $569,900
Sales Price $515,000 (9.6% Lowball, 12.7% off OLP)

MLS# 2248953 - Glen Rock, NJ
Original List Price $869,999
List Price $789,900
Sales Price $715,000 (9.5% Lowball, 17.8% off OLP)

MLS# 2222397 - Ridgewood, NJ
Original List Price $1,450,000
List Price $1,275,000
Sales Price $1,162,500 (8.8% Lowball, 19.8% off OLP)

Essex County
MLS# 2259117 - Belleville, NJ
List Price $299,900
Sales Price $225,000 (25% Lowball)

MLS# 2244511 - North Caldwell, NJ
List Price $2,325,000
Sales Price $1,900,000 (18.3% Lowball)

MLS# 2223354 - Belleville, NJ
List Price $575,000
Sales Price $490,000 (14.8% Lowball)

MLS# 2244141 - Fairfield, NJ
List Price $499,900
Sales Price $430,000 (14% Lowball)

MLS# 2256643 - Verona, NJ
List Price $599,900
Sales Price $527,500 (12.1% Lowball)

MLS# 2233491 - Millburn, NJ
Original List Price $4,860,000
List Price $4,595,000
Sales Price $4,100,000 (10.8% Lowball, 15.6% off OLP)

MLS# 2233910 - Millburn, NJ
List Price $2,999,000
Sales Price $2,688,000 (10.4% Lowball)

MLS# 2213205 - Millburn, NJ
Original List Price $1,319,000
List Price $1,275,000
Sales Price $1,155,000 (9.4% Lowball, 12.4% off OLP)

Morris County
MLS# 2268409 - Madison, NJ
Original List Price $509,000
List Price $495,000
Sales Price $375,000 (24.2% Lowball, 26.3% off OLP)

MLS# 2285379 - Montville, NJ
List Price $1,188,800
Sales Price $999,900 (15.9% Lowball)

MLS# 2270090 - Jefferson, NJ
List Price $225,000
Sales Price $190,000 (15.6% Lowball)

MLS# 2085328 - Florham Park, NJ
List Price $1,345,000
Sales Price $1,150,000 (14.5% Lowball)

MLS# 2264495 - Morristown, NJ
List Price $684,900
Sales Price $587,000 (14.3% Lowball)

MLS# 2201071 - Chatham, NJ
List Price $1,100,000
Sales Price $950,000 (13.6% Lowball)

MLS# 2233288 - Kinnelon, NJ
List Price $1,249,900
Sales Price $1,087,500 (12.9% Lowball)

MLS# 2103717 - Montville, NJ
Original List Price $1,194,800
List Price $1,134,800
Sales Price $995,000 (11.9% Lowball, 21.3% off OLP)

Union County
MLS# 2028729 - Linden, NJ
List Price $320,000
Sales Price $223,500 (30.2% Lowball)

MLS# 2268476 - Plainfield, NJ
List Price $350,000
Sales Price $250,000 (28.6% Lowball)

MLS# 2256843 - Westfield, NJ
List Price $1,799,000
Sales Price $1,450,000 (19.4% Lowball)

MLS# 2267689 - Rahway, NJ
List Price $349,000
Sales Price $286,150 (18% Lowball)

MLS# 2229396 - Roselle, NJ
List Price $224,900
Sales Price $190,000 (15.5% Lowball)

MLS# 2262774 - Fanwood, NJ
List Price $399,900
Sales Price $345,000 (13.7% Lowball)

MLS# 2239900 - Mountainside, NJ
List Price $499,900
Sales Price $435,000 (13% Lowball)

----------------------------------------

I'm sure, at this point, everyone is wondering why this edition of Lowball! was named "McGreevy Edition". It seems our ex-Governor has made the Lowball! list this week with his recent purchase in Plainfield, NJ:

MLS# 2281925 - Plainfield, NJ
List Price $1,475,000
Sales Price $1,300,000 (11.9% Lowball)


I can't say I cared too much for McGreevy as a politician, but I've got to respect the guy for lowballing.

More counties will be posted tomorrow!

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

32 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

The FOOLS that paid these prices will be regretting it in 1-2 years.

Hehehehehe

BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA

Bob

7/22/2006 08:07:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

HOUSING BUST.

WANT TO BE A BAGHOLDING FOOL. GO AHEAD BID AWAY AND BAIL OUT A GREEDY GRUBBBING SELLER.

BABABABABABA

BUST!

Bob

7/22/2006 08:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Probably REGRETTING IT NOW!


Babababbaba

BOOOOOOOOOOOOYcott Ripoff Insulting House Prices

Bob

7/22/2006 08:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I side w/ boya bob on this one.

Yes, those buyers low balled. But I tell ya what, all those buyers are all still suckers to me. They may think they are slick and smart because they got a lower price. But 10, 15, 20% ain't nothing.

Thats just trim off the fat.

This long bear market in RE has only just begun. Think about how those houses are going to sell come Nov or a year from now. We are talking x-50.

SAS

7/22/2006 08:22:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am sure that the houses in NNJ are overpriced and there are fats to be trimmed. I just don't think it's 50%.

In my opinion, I don't think there is enough speculative activity in NNJ area to have a price decrease like the San diego or CA or FL for that matter.

if you are a (smart)flipper/investor, you would have taken some losses and leave the market already, and if you still holding on, then you should slash your price and get out of it asap. That's your 20% price cut right there.

if you are a distress home owner, the last thing you would do is foreclose your home and move your family to smaller or rental place. you would have stick it out, using your entire paycheck (or most of it) to pay for your ever-increasing mortgage. all your other expense, you just put in on your credit card and hope for the best in next 10-15 years.

So unless there is significant job loss, I don't think there will be firecracker sale like the previous bust in the late 80 to early 90s. However, there should be some adjustment for the unreasonalby appreciated price, likely 20-25% (and if you are lucky 30+%)

what's your prediction?
- my 2 cents

7/22/2006 08:48:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Agree, in many cases even the lowball amounts are still too high.

The intent was never to showcase "good deals". There have been very few good deals.

The intent, however, was to illustrate that asking prices are simply that, asking prices. Nothing more than a marketing tool used by agents.

grim

7/22/2006 09:01:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon 09:48,

I can see your point. I feel we are heading into a recession for matters that may bore this blog (they only tend to like first order events around here), if we head into recession, look out. Here comes job losses and with it, comes the 50% reductions. IF we have a mild recession, then ok....25-30 reduction.

If the banking industry had lay offs (and it will) look out below..

If there is a another terrorist attack on nyc...(that is why middle east events can't be overlooked)..look out below.

Keep your eye on the dow, once it goes below 10,000. Market psychology will change. Don't think that will move the RE market around here. ALot of the Wall Street types around here.

So, we will see.

Either way, I think we can all agree, right now is not the time to buy.

SAS

7/22/2006 09:24:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

So unless there is significant job loss, I don't think there will be firecracker sale like the previous bust in the late 80 to early 90s. However, there should be some adjustment for the unreasonalby appreciated price, likely 20-25% (and if you are lucky 30+%)

You don't believe that we'll see large job losses simply due to the collapse of the housing bubble? A significant amount of consumer spending over the past 5 years has been directly related to the increase in the price of housing. What do you think will happen when those consumers cut back their spending? What happens when cash-out refinancing and home equity loans return to their historical levels? What happens when home owners don't make 50% returns on a home sale? What happens to all the jobs tied to housing when the market grinds to a halt?

I've looked long and hard at the 80's bust. While everyone seems to say that it was job related, I'm not sold on the idea. Chicken or the egg, which came first? Personally, I feel the weakness in both housing and jobs developed simultaneously.

grim

7/22/2006 09:49:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

flipper trying to flip pos in an adult community?

7/22/2006 10:59:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anyone have more information on the Madison property that sold for $375k?

7/22/2006 11:07:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

4br/1ba Cape on Valley, 50x125 lot. In need of significant updating.

grim

7/22/2006 11:15:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

go out and give the greedy sellers offers. Show them what their properties are really worth. anybody offers more than 50% OF asking is a fool.

7/22/2006 12:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Regulators going to stiffen rules on Lenders!

Credit dries up to fools and then KABOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!

Underwriting standards, consumer disclosure at the top of the agenda.

Hahahahah!

Worry sellers WORRY!

Payback time

Bababababa

Bust!

Bob

7/22/2006 12:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

IF YOU SACRIFICED AND SAVED A 20% DOWN PAYMENT AND HAVE SOLID FINANCES YOU OWN THIS HOUSING MARKET AND SHOULD DICTATE ANY HOUSE SALE TERMS.

IF YOU DON'T FIGHT FOR EVERY CONCESSION POSSIBLE AND BID SUBSTANTIALLY LESS YOU DESERVE TO BE A BAGHOLDING FOOL WITH ALL THE FACTS PRESENTED HERE!

BABABABABA

BUST!

Bob

7/22/2006 12:10:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim posted:
"I can't say I cared too much for McGreevy as a politician, but I've got to respect the guy for lowballing."
Caveat Emptor!
Grim


um....
double entendre?

7/22/2006 02:01:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Nah.

I do think he still overpaid. Nice place though, drove past it two weekends ago. Sleepy Hollow and Netherwood Heights really are nice communities.

grim

7/22/2006 02:13:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

You're such a clean cut grim! ;)

7/22/2006 02:15:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Has anyone ever heard of realtors doing buybacks to keep prices from falling?

Or this practice? developers themselves buying from some of the “early-birds” with the hope of re-selling at a higher price when market sentiment improves. Trying to ensure that any panic selling by buyers do not trigger a major drop in prices.

Just curious if have heard of these tatctis?

This is a trick they do in Inida. So, I would assume they may do it here in the states.

SAS

7/22/2006 04:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

market sentiment improves? we have a war (make that two wars - iraq and afghanistan !!) going on, prices of oil are rising due to israel and the arabs fighting in the middle east, a situation where the housing market has overinflated.. i mean what possible reason could the developers/realtors have to buyback with the hopes of selling higher? Unless they want to wait for years to come..
--BM

7/22/2006 05:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

price drop in somerset

purchase price $350K in 01/2001

7 Julie Court - Asking 589K


5 Julie Court - Sold 11/05 665K

7/22/2006 07:25:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This one is a - flipper / realtor / Bag holder / Financer - All in one

Bought pos in 08/05 for 455K

wants to dump it now for 489K

Ad claims "WITH 10% DOWN, YOU CAN OWN THIS HOME FOR $1,700.00 PER MONTH. CALL NOW FOR DETAILS!!!"

He probably was duped into buying the house because of "low" monthly payments. Now he uses the same line to find a bagholder.


my calculation tell me that a 440K loan for 30 years @ 6.81 will cost $2,800.00 a month. I guess the flipper will pay out the other $1100/month.

7/22/2006 09:05:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

http://tinyurl.com/zzegj

7/22/2006 09:50:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

My offer
Subject : Re: $389000 - Immaculate 3 Year young Colonial Style SFH - 2500 sqft

I can offer 230K for this property and this is a serious offer. Let me know
if you are interested.
thanks

Seller responds
Subject: Re: $389000 - Immaculate 3 Year young Colonial Style SFH - 2500 sqft

Was this a serious offer??????? Or do I know you and you are pulling my leg????

My response
Subject : Re: $389000 - Immaculate 3 Year young Colonial Style SFH - 2500 sqft

Yes it is a serious offer and no I do not know you but I am sorry if you did not like it. It is nothing personal It is just a business transaction in which parties either accept or reject the offered price. My offer price is in line with what is going to happen in next 12 to 24 months, the prices are going to drop by 30 to 40% and I do not want to overpay now and remain underwater for next 4 or 5 years.
Thanks

7/23/2006 02:47:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

looking at a house with an active underground oil tank. it's got inspection papers and all. am i crazy purchasing this house? should i demand they remove it and put it above ground? thanks.

7/23/2006 05:23:00 AM  
Blogger lisoosh said...

Anon 8:25.
Julie Court is part of a development with subsidized apartments - they were relocated from New Brunswick projects. The whole area has a growing crime problem. Considered a townhouse there in 1999 for all of 2 seconds until I realized what was being built next door.

7/23/2006 11:36:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListing.asp?snum=2&frm=byzip&lid=Enter+MLS+ID&ss_aywr=&st=&mls=xmls&mnbed=4&js=on&mnsqft=0&fid=so&poe=realtor&mnprice=0&areaid=07090&zp=07090&ct=&mxprice=700000&typ=1&exft=0&exft=0&exft=e2cargar&exft=ibasement&exft=ifirepl&exft=iden&exft=ihwoodfl&exft=ifamrm&exft=ildyrm&exft=0&exft=eculdesac&exft=cexer&exft=cpool&exft=ctenn&exft=ileasebuy&mnbath=2%2E5&sid=06FC7CE69BE1C&sbint=1&sblo=1&snumxlid=1062199420&lnksrc=00001

The house is priced at 619,000. I think it is worth mid to high 400s assuming there is no major structural issue.

7/23/2006 04:36:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListing.asp?snum=3&frm=byzip&lid=Enter+MLS+ID&ss_aywr=&st=&mls=xmls&mnbed=4&js=on&mnsqft=0&fid=so&poe=realtor&mnprice=0&areaid=07090&zp=07090&ct=&mxprice=700000&typ=1&exft=0&exft=0&exft=e2cargar&exft=ibasement&exft=ifirepl&exft=iden&exft=ihwoodfl&exft=ifamrm&exft=ildyrm&exft=0&exft=eculdesac&exft=cexer&exft=cpool&exft=ctenn&exft=ileasebuy&mnbath=2%2E5&sid=06FC7CE69BE1C&sbint=1&sblo=1&snumxlid=1063372142&lnksrc=00001

The property is 674,900. I am ready to offer 500K assuming there are no major structural and roof problems.

7/23/2006 04:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Do it, go for 500k.

SAS

7/23/2006 05:00:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We are about to look for a 2 family house in Bergen county. We have a bank approval and planning to put in 10% with fixed mortage. I've been reading eveyone's comments about lowballing, and most people feel that anything below 20% lowballing is not enough. Does anyone know how many houses ARE actually sold within the 5-10% of the asking price? Is that the majority? Any information about 2 family houses? There aren't too many desirable 2 family houses so I'm afraid no sellers will take us seriously.
AnxiousToBuy

7/23/2006 06:13:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

AnxioustoBuy,

Don't be anxious to buy. This is a downward market. Just go through some of the threads here and you will soon learn. Grim puts up some really good stats that no one can argue against.

Prices are coming down, what you buy today will be worth less tomorrow. Its cheaper to rent right now.

Continue to save cash. Cash is king right now, and will be for the next few years until money finds a new home. Reduce lifestyle, and get rid of the frills to raise cash, get a 5.5% savings account (they have those now), get out of debt if any, and make your FICO score perfect.

Be patient, and when this market crashes, sweep up like a vulture (baring if you still wanna live in NJ).

I am a verteran of the 70s inflation/oil crisis, 80s housing bust. I feel we are about to have a repeat of history here. The trends are very similar.

Look at it this way. You have nothing to lose if you don't buy now because prices are no longer going up, but if you buy now, price goes down, and if you are over 45...ouch you may never ever recover.

SAS

7/23/2006 08:46:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

A 10% down payment is not sufficient for a purchase in my book.

grim

7/23/2006 09:04:00 PM  
Blogger jayb said...

Anonymous said...
We are about to look for a 2 family house in Bergen county. We have a bank approval and planning to put in 10% with fixed mortage. I've been reading eveyone's comments about lowballing, and most people feel that anything below 20% lowballing is not enough. Does anyone know how many houses ARE actually sold within the 5-10% of the asking price? Is that the majority? Any information about 2 family houses? There aren't too many desirable 2 family houses so I'm afraid no sellers will take us seriously.
AnxiousToBuy

7/23/2006 07:13:32 PM

I would take SAS's advice. If you can wait and save more cash, go ahead. If you still need to buy, I can certainly help. I'm a realtor advice and info are always free, despite what people say about realtors on here. I'm the 4 leaf clover in a patch of 3 leaves. I don't conform. jbarardo@yahoo.com

7/28/2006 01:44:00 PM  

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