Northern New Jersey June Residential Sales
Preliminary June sales data for Northern New Jersey is in..
The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the y-axis, it is set to 1000, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.
The second graph displays the same sales data (2003-2006) for the first four months of the year. Again, please not the y-axis, this time it does cross at zero.
For those who prefer the hard numbers:
January
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2000
2005 Sales: 2013
2006 Sales: 1705
(Down 15.3% Year Over Year)
February
Average Sales (2003-2005): 1583
2005 Sales: 1578
2006 Sales: 1395
(Down 11.6% Year Over Year)
March
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2193
2005 Sales: 2256
2006 Sales: 2033
(Down 9.9% Year Over Year)
April
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2322
2005 Sales: 2383
2006 Sales: 1817
(Down 23.8% Year Over Year)
May
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2615
2005 Sales: 2725
2006 Sales: 2298
(Down 15.7% Year Over Year)
June
Average Sales (2003-2005): 3486
2005 Sales: 3682
2006 Sales: 2911
(Down 20.9% Year Over Year)
Data above is GSMLS Sales for Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren Counties.
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the y-axis, it is set to 1000, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.
The second graph displays the same sales data (2003-2006) for the first four months of the year. Again, please not the y-axis, this time it does cross at zero.
For those who prefer the hard numbers:
January
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2000
2005 Sales: 2013
2006 Sales: 1705
(Down 15.3% Year Over Year)
February
Average Sales (2003-2005): 1583
2005 Sales: 1578
2006 Sales: 1395
(Down 11.6% Year Over Year)
March
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2193
2005 Sales: 2256
2006 Sales: 2033
(Down 9.9% Year Over Year)
April
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2322
2005 Sales: 2383
2006 Sales: 1817
(Down 23.8% Year Over Year)
May
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2615
2005 Sales: 2725
2006 Sales: 2298
(Down 15.7% Year Over Year)
June
Average Sales (2003-2005): 3486
2005 Sales: 3682
2006 Sales: 2911
(Down 20.9% Year Over Year)
Data above is GSMLS Sales for Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren Counties.
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
45 Comments:
Also important, some data from the NJMLS system that was hidden away in a thread yesterday. I'm posting this data as a confirmation that similar drops are being seen across regions not adequately represented by GSMLS (mainly Bergen county).
RichInNorthNJ said...
Bergen County - NJMLS
Line 1: SFH, 2-4 Family, Condo/Co-Op/TwnHse
Line 2: Single Family Home Only
#Sold - #Under Contract
June 2006
1004 - 1006
644 - 656
June 2005
1302 - 1319
841 - 865
June 2004
1276 - 1245
863 - 818
June 2003
1021 - 1222
666 - 824
June 2002
1002 - 978
691 - 653
June 2001
1011 - 1045
717 - 724
June 2000
1100 - 1019
766 - 666
...and majority of ARM rates haven't yet reset.
It is coming down, baby; give me a hard landing! I can't wait to see the greedy flippers running around naked after they lose their pants.
Looks like a nice 'spring bounce' -- for buyers:
April - Down 23.8% Year Over Year
May - Down 15.7% Year Over Year
June - Down 20.9% Year Over Year
please remember that we are comparing to a record year 2004, topped by another record year 2005. If you look at 2003 [another strong year], 2006 is not that far out of range.
Things are changing, but don't be guilty of being the anti-Lereah.
Have a beer, enjoy the water this weekend, and cross off 2006.
Even keel.
BOOOOYAAAAAA [sorry]
There is good reason to believe that in 2007, when ARMs reset by the millions, we may see greater declines in sales/prices/etc., but these numbers Grim just posted today suggest a "soft landing" to me. I'm not saying there will be one, and because I'm more or less priced out in this area, I'd prefer the 30-40% decline that many on this blog prophecy, but I agree with Chicago that the sky isn't quite falling at this point in time and according to this data.
WM
HOME SALES declining and it already reflects on Homebuilders stocks decline... Why is it that home prices not declining yet ???
I'm sure we will see a decrease in price, but you wonder how much hyperbole there is on this blog.
Every time I see an anecdote that realtors are saying, "it's completely dead, open houses are a waste of time!", that doesn't match up with sales being about 80% of what they were last year. Sure, that's a noticeable decrease, but not enough to be playing crossword puzzles all day.
The April number was an amazing decrease. At that point, I thought we'd have significantly lower prices by Fall '06. Now, I'm hoping for lower prices by Spring '07.
CF,
We are tracking under 2002, as well, for the year to date.
I have data back to 2000, but have not yet migrated all of that data into my database.
I'll see if I can move some more over and post a more comprehensive dataset up.
grim
Love that second graph, we're below 2003 levels across the board for 2006.
Grim
Thanks for a greate blog site.
It would be nice if you could also include central jersey counties in your postings.
There are lot of folks reading your postings and waiting on the side lines from the central jersey areas like Edison, EB, South Brunswick, Monroe etc.
Thanks again
Anonymous said...
7/07/2006 12:29:51 PM
I second that. I am in North Brunswick, and trying to get a feel for Middlesex county since I moved to NJ 8 months back.
Guys like me are completely priced out of Northern NJ. I have a family to support on less than six figure salary.
PS - I buy $30 jeans.
Try graphing prices over the past 5 years. Any asset class that rises 20% per year for 5 years has to come down to sustainable levels. True, real estate is different in that it has a useful purpose unlike stocks which are just paper, but it's still an investment to some. It'll be the flippers and those using exotic loans that will get burned.
Richard:
The non-English speaking wife, does she come with the house?
-jamey
Which Town?
Lets get some homest answers.
Who here feels prices will be reduced enough by this time next year to off set the rises interest rates? What %?
Thanks
I feel decline will not be more than 10% this time next year.
For a cool million bucks in my home town:
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1060869658
Gus, it's pathetic. I'm laughing, though. Good one.
What is in the yard...Water.. Look I love Greenwich.. But that is just INSANE..
skep:
RE 11:50AM rant
yup.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/07/technology/newvillages.biz2/index.htm
I think the concept was discussed a few months ago, with a network fantasy version shown, but hear it is again...just in time for anti-McMansion demonstrations.
Pat
Ok off the topic.. I started reading this blog in October.. How did it get so big.. I mean we now have a community.. That is wonderful
PS Thanks Grim for the hard work
Believe me it's not crashing...
1) Sellers not going below 2005 levels.Denying low ball offers.
2) Lots of buyers are jumping in with 10-15% lower prices compared to early 2006. You can see that with number of pending/closed deals.
3) Rising interest rates are making it a kind of emergency for the buyers. Since soon it could become unaffordable dream.
4) Job market is better than 2002-2003.
It could even be a Bubble 2.0 in 2007.
RichInNorthNJ said...
Bit of a jump between the 2-year and the 10-year in the yield curve
7/07/2006 02:42:17 PM
You know what it means should it stay in this condition for a substantial period of time, yes?
R--------
For a cool million bucks in my home town:
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1060869658
What are people in Rye NY and Greenwich CT smoking these days. Sure must be potent because these 2 sellers are hallucinating.
What would you offer for this?
http://newyork.craigslist.org/jsy/rfs/179125417.html
Grim, that's a great dustbuster deal today on your AntiCost.com site. Can't go wrong for $4!
http://www.anticost.com
Well, somebody's still buying. This just sold for $860K in the Cos Cob section of Greenwich--hardly the hedge fund guys' side of town:
http://tinyurl.com/zsxzp
link to the WSJ article.
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB115204791463597636-_dwtqavFBN5w_kTARC8T9SKB_Fs_20060711.html?mod=mktw
anon said
[Believe me it's not crashing...
1) Sellers not going below 2005 levels.Denying low ball offers.
2) Lots of buyers are jumping in with 10-15% lower prices compared to early 2006. You can see that with number of pending/closed deals.
3) Rising interest rates are making it a kind of emergency for the buyers. Since soon it could become unaffordable dream.
4) Job market is better than 2002-2003.
It could even be a Bubble 2.0 in 2007. ]
....
You have valid points...it's not going to crash but it's going to leak slowly. Could take years(2-3-4) before inflation, interest and demand catch up to the price.
Bubble 2.0 ...not likely unless economy suddenly becomes RED hot to increase individual income.
Not a very likely scenario...looking at the current market trend.
You guys are wanting the decline in prices too quickly...
In all bubbles, a price drop is actually the last thing to happen. So just wait, and watch..
It takes time to play out. But it will drop. The wheels are set in motion.
I feel sorry for those saps who are still in la la land about real estate.
"My people are destroyed for they lack knowledge"
SAS
Grim,
Question about the xy scatter graph regarding the 05 (red)line.
What was going on in July, notice the quick dip and then sharp rise again?
Just wondering if my eyes were looking at that right? That dip sticks out like a sore thumb.
SAS
The sucking sound is the bottom falling out of the real estate
market.
Prices are dropping like rocks
Saw a condo listing today.
Been on the market a year.
Discounted from $699 to $549
It's worth about maybe $450k
Poor person who owns it , is in for a susprise,
Going to have to sell it for less
than he paid.
And the taxes have gone up as well.
You’re a bubblehead in 2006 if…
1.You wake up and open Zillow and Melissadata BEFORE you get a cup of coffee.
2.You drive around on Sunday afternoon to count cars at open houses.
3.Your child tells his classmates that you are a real estate agent.
4.You accidentally blurt out the terms DOM and ARM during a conference call and nervously check to be sure the phone’s on mute.
5.You've had seventeen different buyer's agents working for you in five years and are now blacklisted.
The list goes on.
Just some smiles for the weekend.
"You’re a bubblehead in 2006 if..."
Funny stuff!
anon@3:23
Rising interest rates are making it a kind of emergency for the buyers. Since soon it could become unaffordable dream.
There you go again ... why do you guys keep contradicting yourself??
if nobody can buy your houses because they are unaffordable, then who will pay your 2005 prices?? if nobody can pay your 2005 prices, then how are you going to cash out??
In my opinion, it would be better for you to get rid of those houses before interest rates go up because as you said nobody can afford your houses once the rates go up.
Richard said... maryannenj, i've seen that house on shunpike. it's quite nice and real brick. would be $850k if on a quiet street in chatham. course problem with shunpike is its VERY busy. i've seen fully renovated capes go on that road not too long ago for low $500's.
Thanks Richard. Is this the house that was up for discussion a few weeks ago? On a busy street, but "set back" from the road?" I would love to find something in Chatham near the train. I'm single, so somehthing like a cape cod is fine for me.
RichInNorthNJ said...
You know what it means should it stay in this condition for a substantial period of time, yes?
Aye Cap'n! I do!
But does the "amount" of the inversion have as much of a causal effect as the “period of time”? Or does the amount of the inversion not matter?
===========================
http://tinyurl.com/hgbsh
by this definition, the curve is not currently inverted because it is comparing the 3M to the Ten
Maryannenj,
You might want to check this out:
http://www.forsalebyowner.com/show-listing.php?currentlySearching=1&iListingID=20621651
it's on a quiet street in Chatham and about 5 mins drive to train station. And it's a FSBO, owner is "willing to negotiate"!
Update on the graph:
http://www.njrereport.com/yoy_june.JPG
2002 sales data is now included.
We've been tracking under 2002 for about 9 months now. March was the only exception, the jump in sales pushed us over the 2003 volume, but not quite over the 2002.
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
For those who prefer a link..
North Jersey Residential Sales
Migrated in some 2001 data. Year to date, we are most closely tracking 2001 currently.
grim
i have a family and relocating to NNJ...have looked for 3 months at Ranolph, New Providence, Berk Heights, Livingston and Montville...looking for somethin in the $600-$800 range...having gone out many times with various sales agents here are my observations - they are all acknowledging it is a slow market, prices drops are expected, very common and often substantial ($50K - $100K)...we're focusing now on Livingston and Montville...any thoughts on these towns are appreciated
"we're focusing now on Livingston and Montville...any thoughts on these towns are appreciated"
Before making your purchase, I'd advise you to spend a few hours shopping at the Livingston Mall on a weekend.
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