Monday, July 31, 2006

Q2 Otteau Reports Available

The Otteau Reports are now available for the second quarter:

The Otteau Report

Shortcuts (PDF) & Highlights:

Bergen
Average Offerings/Monthly up to 1944 from 1587.7 in 2005
Average Sales/Monthly down to 945.7 from 1137.7 in 2005
Unsold Inventory up to 6449 from 3491 in 2005
Projected Absortion: 7 months

Essex
Average Offerings/Monthly up to 1005.7 from 904.7 in 2005
Average Sales/Monthly down to 531.3 from 632.3 in 2005
Unsold Inventory up to 2648 from 1768 in 2005
Projected Absortion: 5 months

Hudson
Average Offerings/Monthly at 796
Average Sales/Monthly at 298.7
Unsold Inventory at 2900
Projected Absortion: 10 months

Morris
Average Offerings/Monthly up to 1282.3 from 1127.7 in 2005
Average Sales/Monthly down to 554.7 from 705.7 in 2005
Unsold Inventory up to 3852 from 2323 in 2005
Projected Absortion: 7 months

Passaic
Average Offerings/Monthly up to 658.0 from 563.0 in 2005
Average Sales/Monthly down to 308.0 from 400.0 in 2005
Unsold Inventory up to 2139 from 1255 in 2005
Projected Absortion: 7 months

Union
Average Offerings/Monthly up to 942.7 from 781.0 in 2005
Average Sales/Monthly down to 421.7 from 522.3 in 2005
Unsold Inventory up to 2592 from 1509 in 2005
Projected Absortion: 6 months

All data and graphs copyright of the Otteau Group (http://www.otteau.com).

28 Comments:

Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim-reaper:

I assume this stuff is generating a firestorm of traffic?

7/31/2006 11:26:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim/All-

Isn't 7 months absorption the point where there is a slowdown? I thought I had heard that from one of the RE talking heads. Noticed Bergen had hit that point.

JM

7/31/2006 11:38:00 AM  
Anonymous Ben said...

What's projected absorption?

7/31/2006 11:42:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

It's defined at the top of each report..

A projection of how long it will take for the market to absorb the inventory of unsold homes (Unsold Inventory) within each market area.

grim

7/31/2006 11:54:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ben-
Absorption - how fast the current amount of inventory on the market would take to sell given the current sales rate...

Anyone, please correct me if I'm wrong.

I think 6 months is the average, if you are below that, it's a warm/hot market. Above that is a considered a cool/cold market for sellers.

JM

7/31/2006 11:55:00 AM  
Blogger peaknic said...

Well, I gues I'm one of the smart and/or lucky ones.

I've had my townhouse on the market 5 weeks, priced it 5% above what an exact same model and very similar condition (move-in, but could use new carpeting) sold for in early 2005, which was also 5% less than anything else in the area.

Turned down 3 lowball offers (2 @ 10% below asking and 1 @ 7.5% below) and entered a verbal agreement over the weekend for 3.8% below asking.

The weird thing was that with the exception of the July 4th week, we were getting a very steady number of showings (around 10/week), until last Monday. All of a sudden, all the buyers went on vacation. Didn't have a single showing this past week. So I took the last offer I got, which coincidentally, was exactly the minimum amount my wife and I had agreed on.

Now, I just pray that they don't back out before the closing in early October. Also, before I get flamed, please note that I used the invaluable info gathered here to price my place correctly in the first place. I didn't bake in the last 1.5 years of appreciation into the asking price.

I can't wait to be a renter and not continue to lose sleep over having tha majority of my net worth tied to a declining asset!

7/31/2006 11:56:00 AM  
Blogger NJGal said...

Wow, from that it looks like Hudson County is firmly in a buyers market, or actually, a scary market - 10 mos.? That's very high. Oh well - Hudson County is like the San Diego of NJ in terms of condos.

7/31/2006 12:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is the Months of Supply based on June's sales? Last 3 months?

Even if inventory stayed flat and the rate of sale dropped dramatically (as it does every fall/winter) wouldn't the MOS increase significantly?

7/31/2006 12:35:00 PM  
Blogger NJGal said...

Hey Grim, pretty snarky post over at Jonathan Miller's blog. It's a post about "taking sides" on the real estate issue, which in itself is not bad, but he throws in a few nasty comments, such as the typical "bubble blogs written by renters" line. It just brings to mind what I said the other day about a lot more anger and nastiness from more mainstream people, like Realty Times. Whether what he says is true or not, it came off as nasty, a bit "angry" on the Kubler Ross scale, shall we say? I'm surprised at him - I always thought he was less biased. But I guess, since his business IS real estate, the anger will come out eventually.

7/31/2006 12:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

10 months is bearish. last bubble popping period months inventory rose to about 9-10 months at the worse point. This forewarns very bad things in Hudson. 7 months in many other counties will be at 9 months shortly.

Sellers better take what they can.
Anyone buying here has to have their head examined. Being underwater in short time is not fun at all.

7/31/2006 12:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

peaknic nice sale.

That condo price will probably drop big in next 12-18 months. last bubble period early 1990's many condos saw 50% haircuts.

Congrats in drumming up another FOOL!

BAAAAAAAAAWAAAAHAHAHA

Bob

7/31/2006 01:02:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

NJGal,

I think his thoughts about taking sides have more to do with the inane comments he receives over at the Matrix after his weekly posts.

In any case, he's probably right.
I think most are renters and look at housing in a personal way rather than as economics, hence the "choosing sides".
He'll continue to work in real estate and provide projections long after most on this board have chosen a price point and purchased a home.
I think his point may be that some can be very close minded due to their personal wants or feelings. On both sides.

7/31/2006 01:09:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

In Miller's defense, he makes some good points. The polarization on this topic is incredible. There seems to be no middle ground at all. Each side vehemently supports their position and emotion seems to be the main driver.

Miller is a straight shooter. I don't think the piece was "snarky" at all. He gives both 'sides' a good slam.

grim

7/31/2006 01:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

richinnnj,

the facts speak for themselves.

Grimster has the facts on his side!

It's a friggen BUBBLE and it is bursting now. Like it or not!

10 months supply of houses in Hudson county. Any one buying a house in this area and not demanding huge price concessions deserves the FRIGGEN losses!!

Go gett'em Grubbing sellers if you can find a FOOL to unload your bloated property to.

Markets are not a ONE-WAY street. They go up and they go down. We are in DOWN mode now.

BAAAAAWAAAAHAHAHAHA

Bob

7/31/2006 01:15:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Anonymous said...
peaknic nice sale.
Congrats in drumming up another FOOL!
BAAAAAAAAAWAAAAHAHAHA
Bob
7/31/2006 02:02:08 PM

Bob:
"Don't count the chickens" - they have to close it - FAST!

7/31/2006 01:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

FOOL BUYERS DESERVE TO GET POUNDED WITH LOSSES!

THINKING IS TO HARD FOR SOME OF THESE BONEHEADS.

SO GO GET THE LAST OF THE FOOLS HANGING OUT LOOKING TO BUY BUY BUY! IT AIN'T GOING TO LAST MUCH LONGER.

STICK IT TO'EM GREEDY GRUBBING SELLERS.

BAAAAAAWAAAAHAHAHA

Bob

7/31/2006 01:36:00 PM  
Blogger NJGal said...

Maybe you guys are right. I was perhaps to quick to judge, having read it over. But I just think the so-called "bubbleheads" took a few more slams (and always do). Somehow the bulls don't take much in terms of "digs" and thinly veiled insults as bears do.

7/31/2006 01:39:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Bob,

Truly, I'm amazed.

Do you have a reading comprehension problem?
Where did I write that there is no bubble or about Hudson County?

Okay, I can’t believe I have to point this out.
I was replying to NJGal’s second post.
That’s the one that comes after her FIRST post.

In future, why not READ the comments before replying?
Better yet, read them twice, slowly.
You know, be sure you understand them.
Then rely.
It makes it SO MUCH more interesting to those who read your comments.

7/31/2006 01:46:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

BababababababBob?

7/31/2006 02:40:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I live in Essex County. How is a 5 month projected inventory bad? I thought the average is 6 months in a normal housing market....

7/31/2006 06:30:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"I live in Essex County. How is a 5 month projected inventory bad? I thought the average is 6 months in a normal housing market..."


I don't know about their estimates, but when I take current inventory from GSMLS and divide by typical sales per month (avg) for the last 6 months (2,000), I get 16 months:

32,000 / 2,000 = 16

Either sales have to hit 4,000 per month (unlikely) or inventory has to hit 16,000 (unlikely) to arrive at 6 months inventory.

7/31/2006 06:55:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Grim,

Not for nothing but where is Sussex and Warren or are they not available?

In my opinion, (imo) I think these two counties are the bellwether for alot in that they are the more affordable NJ counties that are still commutable while still being in NJ. Just my opinion.

7/31/2006 07:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hudson county...and Jersey City downtown are looking realy scary. And, a huge amount of condos are still coming down the pike.

Fire Sale!

Funny enough, we recently received this incredible letter from Hovnanian going on and on about how this was a great time to buy, pay no attention to the media bubble talk, and...if you're having trouble selling your place to buy one of our, we'll help get it sold. At some point I'll type in the highlights- it truly reeked of desperation. All this and they just broke ground on yet another 1,000 units 2 tower development near exchange place....


Steve

7/31/2006 07:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

unrealtor-

i am not sure of their estimates..but using the numbers you provide sales have to hit 5333/mo or inventory has to hit 12000.

Still as you point...very unlikely!!

7/31/2006 08:19:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Metro,

The summary for the each county is at the end of each report.

Sussex County: 10 Month Inventory

Warren County: 8 Month Inventory

7/31/2006 09:50:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Unrealtor,

Just curious...

Are you sure the numbers you are using for the GSMLS are for Essex County only?
And if so, are you sure the numbers exclude commercial real estate?

The reason I'm asking is I don't have access to this particular MLS.

Rich

7/31/2006 09:54:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"i am not sure of their estimates..but using the numbers you provide sales have to hit 5333/mo or inventory has to hit 12000. Still as you point...very unlikely!!"


Oops, sorry about that!

8/01/2006 08:56:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Are you sure the numbers you are using for the GSMLS are for Essex County only?"


The 32,000 number from GSMLS is for "Northern NJ" and the 2,000 number is from Grim's regular postings about sales per month, which is also for "Northern NJ."

Between overlap and gaps, as well as commercial real estate as you note, the numbers I'm using are not exact.

But even assuming a 10% error rate, the numbers look like sellers would need a 50% to 60% error rate to come up with "6 months inventory."

There's no way we're at only a 6 month inventory, IMHO.

8/01/2006 09:01:00 AM  

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