Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Still Not A Buyers Market

From the Home News Tribune:

Slow home sales aid buyers
By KEN TARBOUS

With sales of existing homes falling last month for the eighth time in the past 10 months and home prices nationwide edging up at the slowest pace in more than a decade, Central Jersey homeowners are feeling the trend.

Merry Lee and Wayne Winkler's home at 310 N. Third St. in Highland Park is one of 40 homes for sale in the borough.

The couple — they're in a "nonmarital committed relationship, Law said — expected the three-bedroom, one-bath traditional Colonial to sell quickly, based on the research they had done. They've dropped the asking price from $369,000 to $359,000 since the house was put up for sale on July 5.

"We knew that the market had slowed down a little," said Lee, who has owned the home for 24 years. "Certainly houses in Highland Park were selling in two-to-three weeks six months ago."
...
The number of homes for sale in Central Jersey is up 20-to-25 percent from a year ago, said Marc W. Laurano of Preferred Properties LLC in Highland Park.
...
Bill Hanley, president-elect of the New Jersey Association of Realtors and the manager of Weichert Realtors' Metuchen office, said the ratio of homes available changed from 10 buyers for every house a year ago to 20 houses for every buyer this summer. That has lessened the pressure on buyers to make a decision on a purchase, he said.
...
"A year ago it would have sold in a day," Laurano said. "It's definitely a buyer's market."
...
Laurano said he has seen asking prices in Central Jersey drop 12-14 percent from a year ago, but Davis said sale prices in the larger Central Jersey area remain stable, at about year-ago levels.

Don't be fooled by the "Buyers Market" call, we're not in a anything resembling a buyers market yet.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

71 Comments:

Blogger grim said...

From MSNBC:

Housing Market Cools(Video)

7/26/2006 05:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think we should write a petition to Oprah to do a story on the housing bust. Women are so drawn to her words, and find her stories irresistable, and argument more powerful as any news outlet.

Once we get the stay-home moms and ladies to understand the current market situation, we may have a faster bust. I am starting to get impatient.

-Any comment from the female reader

7/26/2006 06:08:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I AM TIRED OF THESE FRIGGEN SPINMEISTERS SAYING THIS IS A BUYERS MARKET. SO GO AHEAD AND BUY SLICK REALTORS WITH YOUR OWN MONEY!

NO IT AIN'T.

IT IS A RIPOFF HOUSING MARKET!

HOUSING BUST!

BABABABABA

Bob

7/26/2006 06:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

NO MAAS TO RIPOFF HOME PRICES.

LET THESE MONEY GRUBBING SELLERS SIT AND ROT AT THEIR INFLATED DREAM PRICES AND STRAVING REALOTRS SIT AND THINK ABOUT THE NEXT COMMISH CHECK THAT AIN'T COVERING EXPENSES.

BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA

Bob

7/26/2006 06:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Sellers still dont get it.

Prices are still at least 20-30%
overpriced.

Shacks for 700k, with many
you would have to spend another 200k just to make it livable.

Almost like Rita Crosby on MSNBC
unwatchable.

7/26/2006 06:17:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Take 30-35% off of peak 2005 prices Not some Dreamed up prices from some Johnny come lately Greddy grubbing seller.

You ain't going to stick us with your over inflated house.

How are those double digit property taxes ?
Hearing a lot of moaning from homeowners who paid squat for their houses.

YOU PAY THESE RIPOFF PRICES YOU DESERVE TO BE A BAGHOLDER. GRIM HAS LAID OUT THE FACTS. LISTEN OR BE A FOOL.

BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA

Bob

7/26/2006 06:19:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

-Any comment from the female reader

First of all, there is no housing "bust" to report at this point. Secondly, many women own property so we aren't looking forward to our property value dropping. Anyone with the ability to swing the market is working - not at home watching Oprah.

7/26/2006 06:21:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hahahaha

Another realtor trying to convince a fool there is NO BUST!

Your damn wrong there is a bust!

When prices go parabolic upward they correct hard down.

DO NOT BUY A HOUSE OR LOOK AT A HOUSE. LET THE GREEDY GRUBBING SELLERS AND STARVING COMMMISHED REALTORS THINK ABOUT IT SOME MORE.

DROP PRICES SUBSTANTIALLY GRUBBERS AND JUST MAYBE YOU MAY GET A LOWBALL BID.

Can't stand an industry that continually tries to sugar coat bad news and hurt buyers!

Begging , frustrated realtors is a great sight. Back in early 1990's these slick realtors would literally harass you if you were a buyer.

HAHAHAHAHA

BOOOOOOOOOOOYcott Houses!

Bob

7/26/2006 06:27:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Five Stages of Grief
Before looking at the five stages of grief, please consider a medley of tunes that David Lereah, chief economist for the National association of Realtors, was singing on July 25th 2006. It's quite a collection.

Let's start with the MarketWatch article Existing home sales fall 1.3% to 6.62 million

The report shows a continued weakening in the housing market, with inventories up sharply while prices are softening.

The inventory of unsold homes rose to a record 3.725 million, a 6.8 month supply at the June sales rate, the highest since July 1997.

The median price has risen 0.9% in the past year to $231,000. It's the weakest price growth in 10 years.

What tune is Lereah Singing?

"I hope we are hitting bottom," said David Lereah, chief economist for the private real estate trade group, which is predicting sales of about 6.60 million this year.

Sellers should expect lower prices, Lereah said, adding that he wouldn't be surprised to see single-family home prices fall nationally.

Also on July 25, the National Association of Realtors reported Existing-Home Sales Flattening, Prices Cooling.

David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said the housing market is flattening-out. “Over the last three months home sales have held in a narrow range, easing to a level that is near our annual projection, which tells us the market is stabilizing,” he said. “At the same time, sellers have recognized that they need to be more competitive in their pricing given the rise in housing inventories. Home prices are only a little higher than a year ago.”
What tune is it?

I think this snip best expresses the tune of the day.
In fact it represents the tune of the day, day in and day out, 365 days a year.

NAR President Thomas M. Stevens from Vienna, Va., said opportunities have opened for home buyers. “People who were discouraged by the bidding wars that were so common over the last few years are finding more choices now,” said Stevens, senior vice president of NRT Inc. “Relative to the five-year housing boom, this year is a buyer’s market in much of the country with plentiful supply, along with interest rates which remain historically favorable, so it’s a good time to buy a home.”
It's always a good time to buy a home according to these cheerleaders.

If home prices have "flattened out" after a massive 5 year run, pray tell exactly what value is there in housing? Or have home prices rally fallen more that you want to say? If inventories are high and the top cheerleader is admitting "he wouldn't be surprised to see single-family home prices fall nationally", why should anyone be rushing into this market?

Home prices are 4-5 standard deviations above wages increases and 4-5 standard deviations above rental prices.

The truth hurts.

You know it is not a good time to buy, I know it is not a good time to buy, they know it is not a good time to buy, and FINALLY the public is starting to realize it is not a good time to buy. A very lengthy correction has only just begun. Yes, it's a better time to buy than a year ago, but only because prices have fallen more than anyone wants you to believe. That does not make this a good time to buy.

Five Stages of Grief

The Palm Beach Post is talking about the five stages of grief.

Thomas Lawler, a Virginia-based housing consultant, thinks South Florida's real estate market has entered what the respected "death-and-dying" psychiatrist Elisabeth Kubler-Ross called the first of five stages of grief.

"Denial in a previously hot real estate market occurs when a home listed at a high price doesn't sell quickly, even though just a few months ago houses sold in just a few weeks," Lawler says in his July 19 Lawler Economic & Housing Consulting newsletter. "The home buyer says, 'This is weird, but I'm sure it's just a glitch,' and does not alter his or her asking price.
"Anger occurs when, after a few months pass, the house still hasn't sold, and little interest has been shown," he continues.
"Bargaining begins as the home buyer starts to offer a few incentives, agrees to more open houses, starts to fix up the house to make it show better, and actually agrees to lower the listing price a bit.
"Depression starts to set in when the house has been on the market for about four months or so, and the seller realizes that his or her net worth simply isn't going to be as high as he or she thought.
"Finally, acceptance occurs when the seller realizes that homes prices have fallen; that he or she will not get peak price of what is now six months or more ago; and that if he or she wants to sell the home, the asking price needs to be adjusted downward considerably."
This process takes time, Lawler says, which is why home prices in hot markets that cool fast don't immediately start falling.
I agree it takes time. Far more time than the four months that Lawler is suggesting it takes for depression to set in. Depression does not set in after 4 months (except perhaps for flippers on the fringes). I think six years is more like it. In Japan it took 18 years. Why can't it take four, six, or even ten years here? It can and it likely will.

For the most part, we are probably still in the denial phase after 6 months to a year. If each phase lasts six to eight months we are in for a three year collapse. Given that this is basically a national bubble, and the biggest bubble ever, it would seem to me that 5-7 years minimum is more like it. Some people have not even hit the denial stage yet. Those people are still trying to flip, buy foreclosures, or buy the dip.

It's a long way down from here.
That is in terms of time, price, and emotion.
For most recent real estate gurus it will not be a pretty ride.
Nor will it be a pretty ride for those trying to make a living off of ever decreasing sales.

7/26/2006 06:30:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Sellers should expect lower prices, Lereah said, adding that he wouldn't be surprised to see single-family home prices fall nationally."

Even the Biggest unethical cheerleader on the face of the earth is SAYING PRICES ARE GOING DOWN.

HAHAHAHA

YOU KNOW THINGS ARE REALLY BAD WHEN THIS SLICKSTER SAYS THIS.

BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA

Bob

7/26/2006 06:32:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Whether or not this is relevant I'm not sure, I felt it important to admit... I was once in the 'boycott bob' camp... I have had a change of heart. Like Asbury Park, it is a part of us we cannot ignore or deny. Love that guy.
Curious

7/26/2006 06:36:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Almost like Rita Crosby on MSNBC
unwatchable.


I love it!

7/26/2006 06:41:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Anon @ 7:08,

Realize that your comments are both sexist and stereotypical.

grim

7/26/2006 06:42:00 AM  
Anonymous Nobody said...

Grim and Friends,

Thanks so much for this site! You and your responders saved me a ton of money with your informative analysis. Please keep up the great work. Working people like us keep getting hurt by the rampant misinformation permeating every single news outlet.

Just before I stumbled across this blog, my husband and I almost got ourselves into our very own money pit in Fair Lawn. The realtor kept telling us how this 379,000 dollar shack would be a great investment because according to her houses in Bergen County "retain their value" and the prices won't go lower then this. We would have had to mortgage out 450K just to make the shack livable. Almost half a million dollars for a home that needed everything. We both work hard, pull in 200k collectively and here we are about to jump into a shanty with bathrooms from the 1940s and a kitchen that smelled of rotting onions. I decided then to find out what was being said outside the "soft-landing" crowd because something in my gut told me there was more to the news I was getting. I googled "nj housing bubble" and there it was. A

7/26/2006 07:18:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's a confusing time to be a seller, folks. I'm not a flipper--just a single mom who has owned a house for 12 years and is selling to finance college tuition. Does wanting to get the best value I can from my biggest (and honestly only) asset make me greedy? The real estate market does not have the same kind of transparency that say the stock market does--believe me, I didn't intentionally overprice; I'd like to sell the house! Agent just told me that houses are staying on market 90-120 days and basically admitted SHE overpriced the house by 10%. Maybe I should have listened to the first agent, but it was hard to pass up the prospect of another year's tuition and the comps supported the higher price. So Bob, call me a GREEDY GRUBBING SELLER all you want, the reality is I'm regular folks trying to do the best I can. BOO HOO.

7/26/2006 07:30:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well Grim,

Seems to me your exposed as the
Lib. you are.

Rita Crosby is only on the
air because she is a women.

Her ratings are so bad that
it is a wonder that she is still
on.

And it won't be long before she is replaced.

The industy insiders all know it.

And MSNBC is so bad that if they could they would merge it with
something. GE just does know what to do with it.

And its typical liberal to accuse
anyone with any truth to be called
racist or sexist, etc.

Typical.

Now take the post down.

7/26/2006 07:50:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 8:50 said: And its typical liberal to accuse
anyone with any truth to be called
racist or sexist, etc.

Typical.

Huh??? He was commenting on the poster who stated that women are home watching Oprah. If you go back and read that post, it is sexist. Has nothing to do with Rita Cosby and I also don't get your whole "lib" tirade either.

7/26/2006 08:04:00 AM  
Blogger Richie said...

It's not a buyers market if no one is buying.

If the homes are priced right, and people are buying, then it's a buyers market.

The right priced homes sell fast. We have friends that just sold their house in Wayne for $619k in one day. They actually were going to sell to an acquaintance for $500k, but they backed out of the deal. They ended up putting it on the market for $619k and got the full asking.

The home was a bi-level on a .5 acre plot. Other comparable homes to this one are asking for $750k+.

-Richie

7/26/2006 08:09:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

My statement was directed at the Oprah comment, not the Rita Crosby.

grim

7/26/2006 08:17:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

-------It's not a buyers market if no one is buying-----

IT IS buyer's market even we are not buying....

--------If the homes are priced right-----------

This is the key point, but almost all houses on the market now are not even close to priced right! They are way overpriced!

7/26/2006 08:24:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't know if it's a buyer's market yet or not, but it's sure not a seller's market!!!

7/26/2006 08:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Reversion to the mean is such a powerful and simple concept, I cannot believe it is missed by so many.

Still about 30% to go....

7/26/2006 08:41:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

"Maybe I should have listened to the first agent, but it was hard to pass up the prospect of another year's tuition and the comps supported the higher price."

can't say I blame you for trying to get the most money you can, but have you thought of all the money you will SAVE by pricing your house correctly and selling it quickly?

you will save months of mortgage payments, property taxes, upkeep and maintainance. plus, the earlier you cash in, the more interest you make on the money you will receive.

so you see the final sale price is just one piece of the puzzle in considering the overall return you make from your investment in this home.

7/26/2006 08:43:00 AM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

And, make no mistake, Rita Cosby is unwatchable - much like The View.

7/26/2006 08:46:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

definitely 30% to go...we put down pay money in saving and use interests for great summer vacation, haha

7/26/2006 08:48:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

posted this in another thread. i think it's telling.

it's starting to get interesting in this condo complex near me in essex county. 3 identical units on the market. currently priced at $429.9k, $409.9k and $409k. peak sold price in july '05 was $450k by the way. the $409k unit just trumped the others and dropped to $392k. they've just set the new asking price for this type of unit. the other 2 sellers counting all their profit have just lost $38k and $18k on paper so far. hope they weren't relying on those unrealized gains!

now back in dec one unit was languishing on the market and some 'smart kid' stepped in and bought at $395k. people in the complex were thinking wow what a steal he just made $55k since the 'new bar' was the $450k unit. the reason this one sold so low was it needed work and it was winter, all unique factors that mean nothing for when prices start marching even higher than the $450k price (since RE never goes down). dopes.

as people on this site have said before, those that sell set the prices.

7/26/2006 08:54:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The view will get better as
soon as Rosie appears.

7/26/2006 09:00:00 AM  
Anonymous sugee said...

Anon @ 7/26/2006 08:30:49 AM,

"just a single mom who has owned a house for 12 years and is selling to finance college tuition"

No, Ma'am. I dont think anyone could call you greedy for wanting the best price possible for your home.

If you read posts here, it seems people are still completing sales if they price it right.

Last year a friend of mine sold his house since he was returning to India. He asked for 800, and after 3 weeks he got an offer for 730 and he took it. The week he sold, another person in the neighbourhood with a similar house put his house up for 850 and within a month sold it for 765. My friend has no regrets. He had held the house for a while and made a 300k profit anyway and did not regret losing the 35K.

Ma'am, it is all still a gamble anyway. Some of us are waiting to buy, who knows the prices may actually go higher while we wait. Similarly for sellers like you. One never knows what there is at the end of the waiting.

In my neighbourhood a lot of houses doubled in price between 98 and 2004, that is a 12% per annum increase, and went up another 25% to 30% over the 2004 prices in 2005. Having seen the stock-market bust, especially the tech stocks, one feels wary about such sudden gains, especially when one sees that there are lesser jobs, pay-cuts etc. in general.

7/26/2006 09:34:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've been visiting this site for a while and I think a lot of you are flipping out because the housing market is not dropping or "bursting" as quickly as you thought it would. People were saying the same thing a year ago today that they're saying today. And yet the bottom has not fallen out. Intead of relying on all this hearsay, get a recent residential real estate report from a financial institution like Merrill Lynch and see what they have to say.

7/26/2006 09:35:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Single Mom,

God bless if you can find a FOOL to pay the insulting asking price.

I am just hoping no more buyers are being taken advantage of at this point.
Many lives are going to be wrecked financially in the next few years.

BOOOOOOOOOYcott Houses!

Bob

7/26/2006 09:42:00 AM  
Anonymous dreamtheaterr said...

Anonymous said...
get a recent residential real estate report from a financial institution like Merrill Lynch and see what they have to say.

7/26/2006 10:35:16 AM


Sometimes, trusting yourself is better than the snake-oil salesmen of Wall Street.....

7/26/2006 09:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Nobody said...

Anonymous said...
Intead of relying on all this hearsay, get a recent residential real estate report from a financial institution like Merrill Lynch and see what they have to say.

7/26/2006 10:35:16 AM

Grab a red pen and circle May, 2007, on your calendar.

That month is full of foreboding for the U.S. economy,according to Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. North American economist David Rosenberg,, who sees inauspicious portents in the data.

"They all put a big fat bull's eye on May, 2007, as the month that we could see an actual economic turndown," he says in a note to clients.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060725.RMERRILL25/TPStory/Business

The economist adds that the outlook is gloomy no matter what action the U.S. Federal Reserve Board takes on interest rates. "It may well be too late and the seeds could well have already been sown for an outright recession next year."

7/26/2006 09:48:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hmm. Don't watch much TV since the little one took over the remote at age 4 and we pretty much blocked everything on hundreds of channels or that had commercials.

We even watch baseball on our notebooks.

Now I'm gonna HAVE to go see who this Rita Crosby person is. Lots of people must be watching her for this much controversy here.

Bet she trades up.

Pat

7/26/2006 09:52:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think its her voice that makes the show so horrible.

7/26/2006 09:55:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

rita is in the process of being
shown the door . Hurry.

Switch to the View , you have
the bulldyke Rosie ploping in the
chair soon.

Replacing Star Jones. Who at the moment is unemployed.

7/26/2006 09:57:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I take it most of the people who post here are renters?

7/26/2006 10:07:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Hmm. Don't watch much TV since the little one took over the remote at age 4 and we pretty much blocked everything on hundreds of channels or that had commercials."

Off topic - no offense, but reading things like this make me wonder if a 4 year old is running your household. Kinda scary.

7/26/2006 10:09:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

We've got a pretty solid mix of renters, residential owners and investors, commercial owners and investors here.

The commercial and large-scale residential investors seldom post publically, they usually correspond with me via email.

grim

7/26/2006 10:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That month is full of foreboding for the U.S. economy,according to Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. North Nobody said: American economist David Rosenberg,, who sees inauspicious portents in the data.

"They all put a big fat bull's eye on May, 2007, as the month that we could see an actual economic turndown," he says in a note to clients.

OK, so this is an economic indicator for May 2007. I'd like to see a residential real estate report that matches the predictions on this site such as "condos to fall by 50%" or FSH "fall by 30%." And the posters are calling for this to happen way before May 2007.

7/26/2006 10:23:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Once we get the stay-home moms and ladies to understand the current market situation.."

Anon 7:08:

I'm stay-at-home from 7 p.m. to 7 a.m. weekdays, and on Saturdays & Sundays. Sometimes, I'm a lady, sometimes I prefer to be an offender here. Usually, my husband simply refers to me as "unique." So, I suppose I half-way qualify to comment for you. Maybe my response will be half-*ssed, but here goes.

Not one Mom (or lady) I know needs one bit of information from Oprah about housing economics. Any stay-at-home Mother who is watching Oprah probably is NOT a potential homebuyer right now, anyway. No finances, or they already own. [Not a big bunch of fencesitters in front of Oprah.] Sellers sitting in front of Oprah? Don't think THAT will make them drop their asking prices.

These women are wise shoppers, budgeting queens, and over-all better general managers than you can even suspect.

I work with a minimum of 50 such people here, and hundreds around the country. Not a one is buying.

Ladies do not hesitate to smile and ask for directions. They will know when to turn.

Moms are very patient. They will wait for bargains. When you see them standing in line - that's THE line to be in.

So maybe stop watching median indicators. Stop worrying about the numbers. Start watching them, instead of trying to educate them, and you'll have your answer.

Pat

7/26/2006 10:26:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bob said: I AM TIRED OF THESE FRIGGEN SPINMEISTERS SAYING THIS IS A BUYERS MARKET. SO GO AHEAD AND BUY SLICK REALTORS WITH YOUR OWN MONEY!

NO IT AIN'T.

IT IS A RIPOFF HOUSING MARKET!

So if you were selling your house (although from your posts I assume you're a renter), you wouldn't want to best price possible? You'd be a helluva nice guy and price it at, oh let's say, 50K less than something comprable? You'd have to in order to pratice what you preach.

7/26/2006 10:28:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 11:09.. yeah, for her few hours of non-commercial, allocated TV during the week, she IS the queen of the house. Whatever she wants.

When you're there, come back and comment.

Pat

7/26/2006 10:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ruffled a few starving realtors feathers.

GRUBBERS ASK ALL YOU WANT YOU AIN'T GOING TO GET IT ANYMORE.

BUYERS DO NOT BID LOOK NOTTT''ING.

STARVING REALTORS SIT ROT AND THINK ABOUT IT.

BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA

Bob

7/26/2006 10:37:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Bob said: Ruffled a few starving realtors feathers.

GRUBBERS ASK ALL YOU WANT YOU AIN'T GOING TO GET IT ANYMORE.

BUYERS DO NOT BID LOOK NOTTT''ING.

STARVING REALTORS SIT ROT AND THINK ABOUT

I'm not a realtor and you didn't answer the question. And don't flatter yourself, you're not ruffling any feathers. If anything you're annoying at best.

7/26/2006 10:44:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

I love how people who own houses like Anon here take this morally superior tone when they address "renters."

yes, we renters should all be ashamed and humbled before those with 30 yr loans, those who have almost all of their wealth tied to an illiquid asset, those who valliantly pay property taxes to support our wonderful local gov'ts, etc, etc.

If the cost of owning remains 2x the cost of ownership, I am happy to remain a renter forever.

7/26/2006 11:00:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

grim said...
We've got a pretty solid mix of renters, residential owners and investors, commercial owners and investors here.

The commercial and large-scale residential investors seldom post publically, they usually correspond with me via email.


grim what's the overall consensus from some of these larger residential/commercial investors. you said they email you directly and don't tend to post on the blog. can you give us an idea of where they think we are heading. they are probably more seasoned and informed than typical joe public.
thanks

7/26/2006 11:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Speaking of educating people about the current market situation, here's a "what do you say?" question.

My husband works with a couple of "family men" who live in NJ. One has a working spouse, the other, a "stay-home mom." Both bought their dream homes 1.5 years ago (ouch) in developments near each other.

One fellow mentioned yesterday that two homes in the dev. were put on the market recently for $30k less than he paid in early 2005. He has an ARM and stretched. He is squirming.

Seriously, would you 1) keep quiet. 2) beg him to sell now. 3) send him an anonymous e-mail with links to housing bubble blogs. 4) Give him a case of matches (just kidding).

Pat

7/26/2006 11:19:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

Pat,

when you say this guy is "squirming," do you mean that he won't be able to afford the payments when his ARM adjusts? If so, he should sell now. If he can afford it and it's his "dream home," then maybe he should just stay put and try to forget the fact that he probably overpaid.

7/26/2006 11:27:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Skep-
The fact that he even brought it up with my husband makes me question his confidence or his finances. If he wasn't nervous, why would he be watching the home section of the paper?

Pat

7/26/2006 11:34:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Skept-tic, my monthly carrying costs are about the same as rent, ignoring the opportunity cost of leaving equity in the house rather than in another investment vehicle. That was about $850/month and I considered that the cost of delayed sales. But the spreadsheets did not assume declining house value over time; my "worst case" was flat value. I think I'll need to run that one as it will drive home the point that time may well be more than $850/month. I may also need to re-examine my assumptions about interest rates. Guess what I'll be doing tonight?

Maybe I am just a greedy bastard but I don't think the market calls for pricing 30% below June comps. Yet.

7/26/2006 11:40:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who said markets were rational?

Irrational on way up and irrational on way down.

50% drops anyone?

BUST!

Bob

7/26/2006 11:45:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bucks county is next.
It will come to a standstill.

Look out below.

7/26/2006 12:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

did anybody see this picture
of this shack in Closter thats
priced at 600k on closter dock road..(record article)

Who in their right mind would
pay 600k for this POS?

Goodness, is this whats its come to

7/26/2006 12:19:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Mr. Oliver said...
And, make no mistake, Rita Cosby is unwatchable - much like The View.
7/26/2006 09:46:52 AM

gato-hombre:

Back on the power grid?

Congrats.

How much is Con Ed reimbursing you?

7/26/2006 12:22:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Anonymous said...
I've been visiting this site for a while and I think a lot of you are flipping out because the housing market is not dropping or "bursting" as quickly as you thought it would.

People were saying the same thing a year ago today that they're saying today.
7/26/2006 10:35:16 AM


Your assertion about comments from a year ago is patently false.

By the way, I independently came to same conclusion as your vaunted "Merrill Lynch" - Spring 2007.

Cross off 2006.
False bottom is anon.....

I love the use of the word "hearsay" to describe the discussion on this blog, since we are discussing perhaps THE MOST OPAQUE AND INEFFICIENTLY PRICED MAJOR INDUSTRY IN THE US ECONOMY.

chicago

7/26/2006 12:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Trust me Grim is not a "Lib", maybe a real Democrat, era JFK or moderate Repub. If he were a Lib, he would have deleted me many times.

per "Space Ghost";

Sincerely, Socialist hating "gun nut".
ps: Only because I am anon, I will relate some of my story; 25 years ago I was homeless, slept on the streets of Queens for a little over a week, by the strength of my faith in the Man above, turned my life around got it together, reached the heights of success, only to lose it all agin, bankrupt, with a preganant Wife, on Welfare (her idea) recv'd 1 check, a pittance, after spending an entire day on line, recv'd maybe $40 food coupons etc. dealt with inept Gov't workers who have full benefits, indifferent to my situation then etc.,today 15 years later that is a distant memory, that I will never forget...not bragging I am the same guy who has posted about 2 homes, one of which I wrote a check for etc.

7/26/2006 01:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

These arrogant people Left Holding the BAGS again will be easy to Identify. Like in Raygun's GOP Recession, They'll be WEARING them on their HEADS with little eyeholes cut out and LIVING Under the Bridges.

7/26/2006 01:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mr. Anon 2:16
Sounds like an incredible story, you should be on Oprah!

Can you tell us more about it?

7/26/2006 03:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I love the use of the word "hearsay" to describe the discussion on this blog, since we are discussing perhaps THE MOST OPAQUE AND INEFFICIENTLY PRICED MAJOR INDUSTRY IN THE US ECONOMY.

Chicago,unless someone can prove to me they are qualified to speak about a subject, it's hearsay as far as I'm concerned. It also baffles me that so many people actually seem to take pleasure in hoping that property value will drop.

7/26/2006 09:25:00 PM  
Blogger jayb said...

Anonymous said...
Hahahaha

Another realtor trying to convince a fool there is NO BUST!

Your damn wrong there is a bust!

When prices go parabolic upward they correct hard down.

DO NOT BUY A HOUSE OR LOOK AT A HOUSE. LET THE GREEDY GRUBBING SELLERS AND STARVING COMMMISHED REALTORS THINK ABOUT IT SOME MORE.

DROP PRICES SUBSTANTIALLY GRUBBERS AND JUST MAYBE YOU MAY GET A LOWBALL BID.

Can't stand an industry that continually tries to sugar coat bad news and hurt buyers!

Begging , frustrated realtors is a great sight. Back in early 1990's these slick realtors would literally harass you if you were a buyer.

HAHAHAHAHA

BOOOOOOOOOOOYcott Houses!

Bob


You have some issues Bob. I'm a realtor and I don't care about housing prices. My job, and any realtors job, is to serve the public interest. Whether "slick" realtors do that or not is a different story. Sellers need to sell and buyers need to buy, regardless of the market that is always true.

Just because you don't like realtors (bad experience maybe)or are too poor to afford a house at today's prices doesn't mean you should badmouth us or sellers. All sellers were buyers at one point.

As a buyer, you don't have to pay anything to a realtor so it's in your best interest to find a good one to help you get a deal. There are so many of us, you can pick and chose at will and you don't have to sign any buyer's agent agreement. A really good realtor should even be able to find foreclosures for you in today's market.

So please, go easy on the caps and easy on realtors and sellers. This isn't a perfect world, but you try to make the best of it.

7/26/2006 11:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

jayb said...
"I'm a realtor and I don't care about housing prices."

So 6% of $300k is the same as 6% of $600k in your world?

"My job, and any realtors job, is to serve the public interest."

You don't expect us to believe that bs do you?

7/26/2006 11:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Mr. Anon 2:16
Sounds like an incredible story, you should be on Oprah!

Can you tell us more about it?

7/26/2006 04:24:16 PM

Looking back, I wish it were just a story, living it, was a (key point here) self inflicted horror story, which is why I don't buy the it takes a pillage, I mean village nonsense. Yes, sometimes one can do nearly everything right and still end up with the short end of the stick, however as individuals we have so much to do with the outcome...and there is such a thing as luck. Advice to all reading this if you want to help the poor, put cash directly in their hand,(as I often do, I don't need empathy, just my memory).

7/26/2006 11:34:00 PM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

Anon 10:25:24pm,

Our blog host/administrator Grim works overtime gathering and providing lots of hard data on verious aspects of the housing market/economy to readers of this blog (Thank you, Grim!). If you spend some time reading here (as you say you have done), it shouldn't be too hard to find.

Secondly, wasn't it Merryl Lynch that was in hot water not too long ago for publishing falsified or inaccurate research reports that lead some investors to make financial decisions in which they lost money?

Listening to an expert certainly has merit; but you can't rely on the expert(s) completely. You'll have to evaluate data and analysis yourself, regardless of the source.

That said, get busy reading---there's a lot of data and analysis on this blog! :-)

7/26/2006 11:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

roadtripboy said: Secondly, wasn't it Merryl Lynch that was in hot water not too long ago for publishing falsified or inaccurate research reports that lead some investors to make financial decisions in which they lost money?


I've never seen people grab at such straws....I used Merrill (this is the correct spelling of Merrill) Lynch as an example. I could've just as easily wrote Goldman Sachs. My point is that there seems to be a lot of speculation here with no basis and maybe it would be nice to see an analyst report that actually states some of what is being stated on this blog. End of story.

7/27/2006 07:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

jayb said:
Just because you don't like realtors (bad experience maybe)or are too poor to afford a house at today's prices doesn't mean you should badmouth us or sellers. All sellers were buyers at one point.

Good post. Bob and everyone else here should also stop crossing their fingers that property values will drop by 30-50%. Another tell tale sign of an outsider looking in.

7/27/2006 07:20:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why in the world would you want your house value to go up (if you are not looking to sell)??? It'll just mean that your property taxes will inevitably go up!

7/27/2006 10:53:00 AM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

Anon 8:16pm,

This has nothing to do with grasping at straws. My point was that just because an expert states a particular postion doesn't mean that's the end of the story.

There is plenty of data and expert analysis on this blog, if you go through the current threads and the archives. Grim does a great job pulling a great deal of data together.

If you're in a hurry, you could just google "housing bubble" and you should find lots of links to "expert analysis." Start with Robert Shiller's "Irrational Exuberance", the sequal. Also try cepr.net (center for economic and policy research). Dean Baker has been writing analysis for awhile now on the housing bubble and it's potential collapsse.

The expert data and analysis is all around if you really want it!

7/27/2006 06:20:00 PM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

And sorry everyone, but I always seem to misspell "Merryl" in Merrill Lynch! :-(

I have to remember it's "Lynch", not "Streep".

:-)

7/27/2006 06:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon said: Why in the world would you want your house value to go up (if you are not looking to sell)??? It'll just mean that your property taxes will inevitably go up!

Are you kidding me? This blog seems to thrive on property values going down. I am stating that I don't want my property to lose value - and yes, I'd rather see it appreciate than depreciate. I don't know anyone who owns a home, condo, townhouse that looks forward to their home losing value. Why do you think people upgrade things like kitchens, bathrooms, hardwood floors, etc.

7/27/2006 09:00:00 PM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

Anon 10:00pm,

Fortunately, over the long term houses do appreciate in value and historically have kept pace with or just ahead of inflation. The price gains in the past several years are very abnormal and what is really being discussed on this blog is the coming of an overdue market correction.

It's safe to say that most (if not all) contributors to this blog do not wish ill fortune on others. Yet the longer the housing market remains out of whack the greater the likelihood that it can have an ill effect on the entire economy (i.e., everybody else!) when it eventually corrects.

7/27/2006 10:12:00 PM  
Blogger jayb said...

Anonymous said...
jayb said...
"I'm a realtor and I don't care about housing prices."

So 6% of $300k is the same as 6% of $600k in your world?

"My job, and any realtors job, is to serve the public interest."

You don't expect us to believe that bs do you?

7/27/2006 12:26:24 AM

You totally missed the point. I see my job as trying to help people sell or buy a house, regardless of price. So yes, in my world 6% of anything is okay with me. Absolutely not all realtors think like me. Probably most don't, but I don't like to conform.

I don't set house prices and I don't force anyone to buy anything. Of course, if you own a run down property that won't sell at the price you want then I'm not going to help you. And if you can afford $350K comes then that's all I'm going to show you.

I'd be more than happy to be your realtor to prove my point. My email is jbarardo@yahoo.com, and that goes for anyone.

Please stop being ignorant and stereotyping people. There are enough bad things in this world without the added negativity surrounding real estate, realtors, sellers, whatever.

7/28/2006 01:35:00 PM  

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