Weekend Open Discussion
Observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, Open House reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let's have them.
For readers that have never commented, there is a small link on the bottom of each new message that reads "# Comments". Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn't know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone. For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past 6 months. The archives can be found at the bottom of the right hand menu and are categorized by month.
As always, anything goes!
For readers that have never commented, there is a small link on the bottom of each new message that reads "# Comments". Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn't know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone. For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past 6 months. The archives can be found at the bottom of the right hand menu and are categorized by month.
As always, anything goes!
55 Comments:
The worst real estate crash in history is coming. The 2000 stock market crash is nothing compared to what is about to happen.
At least the money was already earned by people who lost money in the stock market crash of 2000. A lot of people who sell a home at a loss will loose money that they still have to pay back somehow money that they didn't even earn yet.
Not only that but I bet most of these clowns don't realize that they can't deduct any personal losses on their real estate loss when and if they sell. Unlike with stock losses you can at least deduct up to 3,000 dollars a year and carry forward any unused amount.
People over paid who bought over the last few years. Those who have to sell will lose big time. You all worked hard for you cash don't give it away to someone who made a bad decision and now wants to take (steal) your hard earned money from you. Don't fall for it.
North Jersey feels housing market chill!
http://www.northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjczN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXkyOCZmZ2JlbDdmN3ZxZWVFRXl5Njk2NzUyNiZ5cmlyeTdmNzE3Zjd2cWVlRUV5eTM=
Another Great weekend for Patient BUYERS while Starving Realtors and Grubbing sellers are depressed.
ACCEPT THE CHANGING HOUSING MARKET GRUBBERS!
PRICES ARE GOING DOWN, EITHER START DROPPING YOUR PRICE REAL FAST OR YOU'LL GO DOWN WITH THE SHIP.
30-50% LOWER PRICES ARE A REAL POSSIBILITY. DON'T GET LULLED INTO BELIEVING OTHERWISE. OH, REAL ESTATE DOESN'T GO DOWN. BS IT DOES. IN 1993 THINGS WERE MISERABLE IN REAL ESTATE LAND, CONDOS WERE DOWN ABOUT 50% AND HOUSES 25%. IT'S WORSE BUBBLE THIS TIME AROUND SO EXPECT WORSE OUTCOME.
HOUSING COOOOOLLASPE!
Bob
PATIENT 'QUALIFIED" BUYERS ARE IN THE DRIVER SEAT. YOU SHOULD DICTATE ALL CONTRACT TERMS.
CONCESSIONS AND CONSIDERABLE PRICE DROPS SHOULD BE YOUR GOAL, IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO BE A BAGHOLDING MONEY LOSING HOUSE FOOL
BABABABABABABA
HOUSING BUST!
Bob
Sellers reduce price first get more money....otherwise, wait and see how much more you have to lose....
advise needed, please?
a house asked 1.399m in Montville, how much we should offer and consider reasonable?
"advise needed, please?
a house asked 1.399m in Montville, how much we should offer and consider reasonable? "
Why buy now, the drop haven't even started, the market will take years to find its bottom
Your looking at $1.4 mil house and this is all the info you provide to making a decision.
1. Find out what this house or similar ones sold for in 1998 and 2000 and 2002.
2. Understand what the current taxes are. Call up town make sure they are not giving you last years.
3. Find out what utility costs are.
4. Maintenance cost.
5. Remember, if they are asking $1.4 you know it's to high anyway. Grubbing sellers looking to stick it to a buying fool. Basic rule if you are lazy. See what peak prices were at peak 2005 then take MINIMUM 25% off. This is a minimum.
Find this stuff out then come back ask the question.
"A house asked 1.399m in Montville, how much we should offer and consider reasonable?"
That depends, how much of a loss can you handle?
This recent buyer of a "million dollar house" took a $350,000 loss:
320 Lupine Way
Short Hills, NJ 07078
1) Bought June 2005 for $1.3M.
2) Put on the market 4 months later in October for $1.3M (MLS 2204767).
3) No takers, withdrawn after 62 days.
4) Put back on the market in March (MLS 2261656), several months, and several price drops later, they closed at $1M last month, or $300K less than paid 12 months ago.
Add to that $300,000 loss: closing costs, real estate broker fees, etc.
If you can handle such a loss, go right ahead and buy now.
THIS IS NOT A BUYERS MARKET!
WHEN THE GREEDY GRUBBING SELLERS PANIC THEN YOU BUY.
THESE GRUBBERS ARE IN THE DENIAL/FRUSTRATION PHASE RIGHT NOW.
let'em sit and rot some more. they missed the peak. They want to sell then start dropping prices bigtime!
The lower the price you get the better chance you will not be a bagholding underwater housing fool!
Seller/Realtor Misery growing.
Bob
The amount of listings "Withdrawn" from the MLS in the last 60 days is staggering!
The amount of listings "Withdrawn" from the MLS in the last 60 days is staggering!
But GSML numbers continue to climb 32,400+ listings
Baaaaaaaaaawaaaahahahaha
BUT REAL ESTATE DOESN'T GO DOWN IN PRICE. I WONDER HOW THE LEREAH TYPES CAN EXPLAIN AWAY A $300,000 LOSS???
BAAAAAAAAAAWAAAAAHAHAHAHA
How many of those withdrawn properties came back as new listings?
Plenty.
grim
From Inman News:
Widening income gap to wreak havoc on consumer confidence
Buying plans for homes, vehicles and large household durable goods were all lower in the July 2006 survey than a year ago. Home-buying plans posted the largest loss, falling to a 15-year low. Although vehicle buying plans increased slightly in July due to aggressive end-of-model-year discounts, they remain significantly below the year-earlier levels.
1.4 in Montville.
offer 1. and not a penny more.
and get an inspection done before
you waste to much time.
best of luck in this market.
taxes on that should be around
27k at the current rate.
do not be fooled.
Inquiring on a 1.399 million dollar home is a joke right ??
If you're looking in this price range you should have the answer, kind of a stupid question with the info furnished.
thanks for all the advises! We plan to buy now because school reasons....But we don't want to the the FOOL too, so I asked your wise people's advises. And besides, we need some move to push the market, right?
1.4 in Montville.
offer 1. and not a penny more.
I think I will take your advise! Thx!
please do take our "advises" and go back to school...get some education and then come back to this blog!
Bob was right, buyers are in the driver seat, why wait for next year? why don't we drive the market a lttile as we wish, we are the ones who pay the realtors!
Not only that but I bet most of these clowns don't realize that they can't deduct any personal losses on their real estate loss when and if they sell.
Worse yet, if you default on your loan, the IRS considers the default amount a gift from the lender, for which you are required to pay taxes!
please do take our "advises" and go back to school...get some education and then come back to this blog!
Already got PHD, still lower than yours?
The amount of listings "Withdrawn" from the MLS in the last 60 days is staggering!
Where can we see these statistics? It would help put the inventory numbers in context.
I'm actively looking in Whippany. We'd love to buy in summer 2007 but are thinking we might wait it out even longer. But I'm constantly checking out the houses for sale. There are almost 90 houses for sale in Hanover Township, up from about 50 at the beginning of the summer (not including FSBOs). HOWEVER, two starter houses that I looked at this year both sold above asking. One sold for $450K (asking $449K). It was a three-bedroom, 1.5 bathrom with a small kitchen and .19 acres of land. It also needed a new driveway and the basement leaked. The other was a 2-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom house - adorable, brand new kitchen, great patio with lots of possibilities for expansion... but on a crappy-looking street across from a huge power line. Sold for $431K, asked $420K. UGH!!!! This is so disheartening!!!!!! RML
DO NOT LISTEN TO A STARVING REALTOR.
I BET THEY ARE GETTING A LITTLE GRUMPY LATELY.
COMMISH CHECKS NOT COVERING EXPENSES. MOMORE FOOLS TO SLAMDUNK AN EASY SALE.
IF ONE OF THESE REALTORS SAYS SOMETHING TO YOU THAT IS VERY QUESTIONABLE. ASK THE GRUBBER TO PUT IT IN WRITING.
BOOOOOOOOOYCOTT RIPOFF HOUSE PRICES.
GET FIRED UP ANOTHER MISERBLE/LONELY WEEKEND FOR GRUBBING SELLERS AND STARVING SLICK REALTORS.
START TALKING YOUR GRUBBING SELLERS TO START DROPPING PRICES AGGRESSIVELY IF YOU WANT A COMMISH CHECK.
BABABABABA
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
my question is... who really wants to buy a house in NJ now? with all of the uncertainty, (possible regionalization issues) no one really knows what they're buying into... in 1-2 years, a town could be totally different than it is now... school system, etc.
Listings are going thru the roof. It's across the board every town.
Take your pick and be patient. sellers are living in the past. Today prices are on the downslope.
we all are! That is why we are here! Point is do your best and get what you wanted!
ISN'T this "Northern New Jersey Real Estate Bubble " site? We are talking about NJ right?
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=4079027
Interesting article to read, what we are seeing now is nothing new. It has happened to other countries just recently. So instead of hoping that we can find good deals after the collapse, I am hoping that I still have a job when the whole thing is over.
You all have lost your focus
here. jumpin all allround.
Come on down to the south, where
we got lots a room .
That sucking sound you hear is
the equity in homes going,
patient homebuyer,
Patient is good! but since it's buyers' market, why don't we make the move, tell seller what you would pay!
A few threads back, Grim pointed out how historically it was less expensive to buy than rent. Here is a real world example:
In 1986 I was given the choice to buy or rent a house. The cost was $4,000 p/month to rent or $250,000 to buy, approx 5x annual rent. Even with 100% financing (I only took 80%) at 1986 interest rates of 12%, payments would be only $2500 p/month, or $1500 less than renting. Add taxes, maintenance, repairs and insurance, and it was still $600 p/month less than renting.
JAY
cross off 2006
false bottom is anon......
The phrase "buyers market" is nothing more than a clever marketing technique used by the real estate industry.
When there aren't enough buyers to sustain prior transaction volumes they bring out the "buyers market" battle cry in an attempt to lure buyers into the market.
Use your own brain to determine if buying now is a financially prudent decision.
grim
Weekend Open Discussion
Over here in PA, townhomes/condos are littering the listings daily.
It's pretty bad.
I went to the comical link provided here the other day that gave the coding for "realtor speak" descriptions, and was entertained by reading the obvious differences in descriptions that were on agent-owned properties, vs the exact homes listed by agents on behalf of everyday Joe's.
The "realtor speak" was DEAD ON.
Not one home pushed by the owner/agent was described as "quaint," "well-maintained" or "!!!." [Which are supposedly negatives, implying the buyer could bid low.]
Thanks to whomever mentioned that info.
Pat
Pat
jay said...
7/28/2006 05:35:55 PM
"A few threads back, Grim pointed out how historically it was less expensive to buy than rent"
BC Bob says,
Jay, the key word is historically. Your example was a no-brainer. However, your example was a purchase price of 5x the annual rent in 1986.I was drinking Boone's Farm wine then!!!!! In 2000 the cost of a house was 10x the annual rent, now it is 25 times the annual rent. You can't give me any example today where buying in this time period is better than renting, except of course if you were buying from Rip Van Winkle!!!!!!
PATIENCE,PATIENCE,PATIENCE
BC Bob
Boone's Farm, Strawberry Hill.
I'm confused about the Bob issue.
Are you Boooooyah Bob? If not, you sound trustworthy as well.
Now you have me remembering my first time pulled over in my old Opel Manta. Hmm. Boone's Farm.
Pat
Pat,
No, I am not BOOOOOOOYAH Bob. I'm BC Bob. However,BOOOOOOOYAH Bob is 150% right on this topic. Boone's Farm apple here!!!!!!!
BC Bob
O.K. Thanks for the clarification.
;)
BC Bob said:
You can't give me any example today where buying in this time period is better than renting...
My point exactly. I am trying to stress just how ridiculous purchase prices have become particularly in relation to rents, and that buying anything now is so utterly foolish when you look at where it has come from.
JAY
Has anyone heard about new fha rules regarding flipping? My brother lives in another state and was supposed to close on a house this week, but now he has to get a 3rd appraisal. I really can't ask him too many questions, but it seems like they are trying to cut down on fraud and really questioning why a house would increase in value by such a huge amount in such a short period of time.
Seems a little too late, if that's what it is about. Any ideas on why you would need 3 appraisals?
Those new rules weren't supposed to be issued until August.
http://www.hud.gov/news/morereleases.cfm
Here's the old Federal Register:
http://tinyurl.com/nczea
Pat
Here, anon, on the new flipping:
effective 7/9:
http://tinyurl.com/pr8d4
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/IndustryNews/42694.htm
http://tinyurl.com/qcg6h
Pat
A little late on the flipping rules, now that speculators have exited the market.
JAY
off the wire from yay hoo
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060728/us_nm/bizfeature_mortgages_dc
Pools, vacations are new lures for homebuyers
On the fence about whether this is the house for you? Maybe a free swimming pool will convince you. Or perhaps a free vacation.
Such is the state of U.S. housing, as home builders pull out all the stops to keep business booming -- a sure sign the once red-hot market has turned in favor of the buyer.
Nearly all measures of housing activity have pointed not just to a slowdown but to a sector that is struggling. Sales are sliding, supply is swelling and price appreciation is abating. Now, home builders are going beyond offering free washers and dryers, refrigerators and microwaves, ponying up more expensive perks and luxury items to lure buyers.
Las Vegas-based Wagner Homes is giving away swimming pools said to be worth $30,000 on some of its projects.
"We had three homes sitting on the block for six months without a buyer," said LaRae Obenauf, office manager at Wagner. "Within the past two months we threw in the pool, and we saw a big increase in interest."
The result: All three homes are now sold.
Some incentives -- occasionally in the form of cash via bonuses, refunds or fee waivers -- are worth as much as $100,000, said Larry Murphy, president of SalesTraq, which monitors real-estate trends in the Las Vegas area.
"Swimming pools, gold club memberships, home landscaping ... all of them are being offered," Murphy said. "Home builders lower prices only as a last resort, so prior to that they prefer to give incentives, which are masked within the sales price. They don't want to reduce prices, not only for the peace of mind of having to deal with the homeowners who have already bought but because it would cause problems with appraisals."
Extravagant incentives are most prevalent in states such as Florida, California and Nevada, where home prices had risen the most but are now seeing the sharpest softening, analysts say.
Prices in Las Vegas surged by nearly 16 percent last year but added only slightly more than 3 percent in the first quarter of 2006, according to data from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
NICE TO MEET YOU, MR. CLOONEY
And if that new plasma-screen television is not enticing enough, how about the opportunity to rub elbows with a Hollywood celebrity?
A bevy of builders in New York City are paying top dollar to entertainers just to show up for viewings, according to Diane Saatchi, senior vice president with the Corcoran Group, a residential real estate firm in New York.
"Celebrity open houses are definitely popping up," she said. "Particularly in the new developments, which is proof they are doing all types of things to attract buyers."
The celebrities showing up for open houses are not exactly what many would deem "A-listers," but they are drawing crowds.
"Put it this way: If George Clooney was served up instead of a free lunch, attendance would skyrocket," said Saatchi.
TAKE A VACATION
All that house hunting got you feeling tired? Take a free vacation courtesy of your mortgage lender.
"One of the gimmicks right now for closing a mortgage loan is a free vacation to Hawaii," said Anthony Hsieh, president of LendingTree.com, on online facilitator that matches consumers to lenders competing for their business.
But buyer beware: The vacation voucher usually carries a number of stipulations, and consumers often pay for freebies with higher interest rates and closing costs, he said.
The Mortgage Bankers Association's latest seasonally adjusted purchase index showed loan volume down 20 percent year-over-year during the week ended July 21. The downturn was even more pronounced in the loan refinancing index, which showed a more than 40 percent drop.
To attract business, some lenders are offering two free airline tickets to borrowers who refinance their home loans.
"Any time there is increased competition in a shrinking market there are free toasters everywhere," said Hsieh, who is based in Irvine, California.
AGENTS ALSO SEE INCENTIVES
After historically low mortgage rates fueled a five-year housing boom, the sector is feeling the heat as rates hover near four-year highs. Some home builders, looking to unload a property, have been cozying up to real-estate agents, offering sales commissions of up to 10 percent.
"In this environment you are always looking to think outside of the box," said Ellen Bitton, president and chief executive officer of Park Avenue Mortgage Group, Inc. based in New York, who added that her firm sometimes offers lunch to potential customers. "Obviously, we'll have a better lunch layout for a $3 million dollar house than a $300,000 studio."
Signs of a cooling market have been more evident in the past few weeks as a deluge of data showed an excessive supply of homes, declining sales and falling prices.
Scott J. Cooper, president of Old Merchants Mortgage Bankers in Lake Success, New York, said his firm is offering refunds on home appraisals, which can range from $300 to $800.
"The market certainly got tougher and it's more competitive, so one thing we are doing is we're closing loans a lot faster," he said. "Lowering rates, lowering points. We are doing just about anything we can to make the consumer happy."
Who would pay for this shit?
$625000 - Luxury 2 Bdr/2 Bath Condo with NYC views FSBO at the Sky Club
http://newyork.craigslist.org/jsy/rfs/187517438.html
Summit, Summit, Summit. That reminds me..I have to feed the squirrel.
Didn't get the dog, but we have a new squirrel knocking on the front door for peanuts every morning, and I've been calling him Summit.
;)
Pat
Even better than a dog Pat!...no cleanup either!
Andy
heard from a friend, realtor, things are really slow. sellers want past prices. Sees big price reduction in august to move houses.
BC
Have a good weekend keep up the great postings.
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Last week I asked about a preforeclosure in 07871 (no responses), but yesterday I found out which number. It was the house I thought it was.
For sale off & on for about 18 mos., finally sold early this year/late last year for $315,000 (NOT worth it, cheap for the neighborhood), tried to rent, now someone is living there (owner's mother?) & in preforeclosure.
The most interesting part is that it's in preforeclosure for $321,xxx. It must have been 100%+closing costs financed.
Unfortunately for the neighborhood, he hasn't fixed up the place.
Thanks for the info anon.
grim
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