Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Demographic Shift Across NJ

From the New York Times:

Immigrants Swell Numbers Near New York

Immigrants have continued to surge into metropolitan New York since 2000, according to census figures released today, and that increase, combined with high birth rates, has elevated the foreign-born and their children in New York City itself to fully 60 percent of the population. The rate of change was even more pronounced in the 24 suburban counties around the city, where a record 20 percent of the residents are now born abroad.

The figures, while showing that the city’s gains from immigration were not nearly as marked as they were in the 1990’s, are nonetheless striking in their detail and magnitude.
...
In New Jersey, the number of immigrants grew to 19.5 percent, the third-highest proportion of any state after California and New York. The number of metropolitan area suburbanites claiming West Indian ancestry soared 16 percent.

Officials warned against making precise comparisons with the 2000 census, since this survey uses a different method of sampling and is intended to measure characteristics rather than to provide an actual population count. Also, the 2005 sample did not include people living in group quarters, such as prisons, nursing homes or mental institutions. In 2000, the census counted over 180,000 residents of those facilities in the city.

From the Morris Daily Record:

Morris gets older, wiser as younger families flee

At the midpoint between two censuses, Morris County is older, better educated and more diverse than at the turn of the century and, while the stereotypical nuclear family continues to decline, families here have grown larger.

These are some of the conclusions that can be drawn from the 2005 American Community Survey released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
...
At the midpoint between two censuses, Morris County is older, better educated and more diverse than at the turn of the century and, while the stereotypical nuclear family continues to decline, families here have grown larger.

These are some of the conclusions that can be drawn from the 2005 American Community Survey released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

From the Herald News:

White population is dropping

A little older. A little smarter. More ethnically diverse than ever.

New population figures released today by the U.S. Census Bureau show that well-documented trends on age, education, race and ethnicity continue to change the face of North Jersey.

Hispanics and Asian-Americans are pouring into the region by the tens of thousands, bringing widespread cultural change.

Meanwhile, the white population continues to drop, especially in Bergen County. The black population is also showing declines in some areas.

At the same time, the overall population is aging and becoming better educated, with significant increases in the ranks of the college educated.

"Basically, the dynamics of change that we saw in the 1980-to-2000 period are continuing quite strongly into the new millennium," said James Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University.


Please keep comments on-topic and relevant.

92 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

From Danielle DiMartino. “Many apologists for the housing industry remain insistent that because house prices have never fallen on a national level, they never will. Actually, they already have. Since the fourth quarter, median home prices have fallen about 1 percent, according to data Goldman Sachs mined from the National Association of Realtors.”

“The numbers are even worse for condos. The median price of a condo nationwide has been falling at a 9 percent annual rate since the fourth quarter of 2005, according to Goldman Sachs.”

“The average mortgage loan size is declining on an annual basis for the first time since 2001. And over the last year, the housing vacancy rate has risen at its fastest pace since data collection began in 1956. ‘Since excess supply is perhaps the most ‘leading’ indicator of market weakness, we would strongly caution against the assumption that the housing downturn is already entering the end game,’ Goldman added.”

8/15/2006 07:23:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Interesting. USA today took a completely opposite approach to the NY Times. They show immigration patterns increasingly fanning out from traditional gateway states like NJ, NY, & CA and moving toward the Southeast and Midwest.

http://tinyurl.com/z3q2z

8/15/2006 07:29:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://newjersey.craigslist.
org/cgi-bin/search?areaID=170&subAreaID=0&
query=motivated&cat
Abbreviation=rfs&minAsk=min
&maxAsk=max

Here's the so called motivatd listing for today.
From the looks of theose ripoff prices they seem more interested in bagging a "FOOL" bagholding buyer.

Booooooooyaaaaaaaaa

Bob

8/15/2006 07:33:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I know no one has a cyrsal ball, but in your opinion, what year do you (blog posters) honestly feel this RE market will bottom and return to it's tradition appreciation rate? 2007,2008, later?

8/15/2006 07:35:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Another realtor myth.

"Normal" Real estate appreciation rate.

Any guesses? 8-10-20% a year right?

NOT!

Bottoming! The Pain has ONLY started. And you think it is going to bottom next year after 42% of first time buyers put down 0%! 72% put down less than 10% !

A TIDAL WAVE IS HEADING THIS WAY!

8/15/2006 07:44:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This info is essentially the same as was discussed here a week or so ago. People from outside the country move into cities here and the people living in more congested areas move to less congested areas.

Other than allowing people to "tsk, tsk, the old neighborhood is not what it used to be..." I'm not sure what people are looking for in this discussion.

Communities change, evolve, devolve, renew, whatever.

Sometimes things get worse, sometimes things get better, and sometimes when you think things are getting worse, someone else thinks things are getting better.

Lindsey

8/15/2006 07:49:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To anon 8:35

I think the water is way to murky right now for any reasonable attempt at trying to figure out where the bottom is.
For what it's worth (which is exactly what you paid for it) I'm willing to say that 2007 isn't likely to be the bottom in real terms.

Lindsey

8/15/2006 08:00:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

i think the census information verifies what we're all seeing around us. the surprise to me is how quickly this population has grown. it obviously has to do with the # of children they're having. i've heard studies that say more financially well off folks tend to have less children.

i lived in NYC for 10 years and the hispanic population growth has just been astounding. a few hispanic friends of mine actually call it Nueva York. New York has always been an international city but it's becoming more London-like as time goes on. The fanning out of new people to our country is something that really has only happened in small pockets to date.

8/15/2006 08:03:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What is surprising to me is how homogenious and 'white' the population has gotten across the greater NYC metro area.

Everyone looks like wealthy, white & suburban and under 30.

Sort of like a 'reverse white flight' and 'reverse immigration' going on.

Check out northern Queens & Long Island. They have changed in the past 10 years and now look completely yuppified especially most of Queens & Long Island.
Hudson County is moving in this direction aside from Hoboken

It is apparant in Astoria, Jackson Heights, Woodside, Elmhurst & Bayside.

Bayonne & Southern JC are the new hot spots.

8/15/2006 08:15:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

I'm heading into an 8 hour client meeting (without a laptop).

Please keep it clean and on-topic. Feel free to use this as an open thread.

grim

8/15/2006 08:15:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

OK so you don't think there's any such thing as an appreciation rate and you don't think a leveling off and or turn around is near. What do you believe. All I'm asking is for your opinion. I never said I thought it'll come around next year. I think it's more like 2008 or maybe 09.

8/15/2006 08:28:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

you think astoria and jackson heights has become more white? you are incorrect. i have family in astoria and while some of the trendsetters have moved in (typically more well off white kids from affluent baby boomer families) these areas in queens continue to diversify ethnically. in fact i'd say astoria is more diversified with pockets dominated by different ethnic groups. it's really a great place to spend some time and learn about other cultures/people.

8/15/2006 08:37:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

if the white folks want to escape all this diversity you have few places to go in this area. whitefield i mean westfield and the cranford area are still 95%+ white. take a ride by the westfield tennis club on weekend morning and if you think you want to live in a white area this will scare the pants off you with their club issued clothes and snobbish attitude.

ok that wasn't too reverse racist was it? :)

8/15/2006 08:38:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

the fact that the market is heading down despite very low mortgage rates and a strong economy w/ strong employment does not bode well for the future.

if we go into a recession in 2007, as many think we will, how bad will the RE market look?

if the MBS market turns out to be riskier than people previously thought, how will this affect RE?

if the Fed and Comptroller of the Currency issue new restrictive regulations on IO and Neg Am loans, how will this affect sales?

If banks mount heavy losses due to defaults, how restrictive will the credit environment become?

If inventory continues to build for the next several years as baby boomers try to downsize to better fund their retirements, how will this affect prices?

Basically, I see a cascading series of factors over the coming years (i.e., 5 yrs+) that spell nothing but D-O-W-N for real estate sales and prices. You cannot avoid the bearish trend brought by these factors:

1. weaker economy

2. more restrictive credit

3. unfavorable demographic trend

8/15/2006 08:49:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

{{in fact i'd say astoria is more diversified with pockets dominated by different ethnic groups. it's really a great place to spend some time and learn about other cultures/people. }}}

Astoria has gotten to be an overtrendy version of Soho or Tribeca. And the 'attitudes' & rudeness to match. But that is everywhere in NYC if you aren't trendy & not making in the six figures

The housing is grossly overpriced with a closet sized one bedroom with teeny rooms renting for $1,800 and up.

8/15/2006 09:07:00 AM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

Anonymous said...
"Astoria has gotten to be an overtrendy version of Soho or Tribeca. And the 'attitudes' & rudeness to match. But that is everywhere in NYC if you aren't trendy & not making in the six figures
8/15/2006 10:07:34 AM"

I've lived in Astoria since '99. What a fantastic neighborhood. Brazilians, Italians, and of course, Greeks predominate. However, there is a little bit of everything. My landlord is West Indian, for example.

The restaurants are as good as any in the City (which is saying alot) and the commute is unbeatable.

It is a far cry from Soho or Tribeca. You have no idea what you're talking about.

8/15/2006 09:26:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We are going to be on this blog for the next 3 - 5 years talking about when to buy. Guess what, we could all be dead by that time. i.e. 9/11, london attempts, iran attempts to become nuclear, terror cells in the US. I don't know about you but I put NJ and NY as high risk areas to live these days. Now I'm not saying I'm going to leave the state I grew up in and love but the fact is you have to enjoy every day of your life because you never know when it could all suddenly be over. \

Waiting 5 years to buy a house may not benefit you if you aren't around to enjoy it. Just something to consider.

8/15/2006 09:30:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

http://tinyurl.com/zrhra

8/15/2006 09:42:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

SAS,

Would love to hear about Sturgis Bike Rally. Was supposed to go this year, but work got in the way...

8/15/2006 09:50:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/m49yv

Home prices in deep freeze
Second quarter numbers are in for more than 150 markets. Overall growth is down; more markets show declines. Plus: Where the strength still is.

CNN article

8/15/2006 09:52:00 AM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

SAS, you went to Sturgis?

Did you see the Black Crowes? If so, how were they?

8/15/2006 09:55:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

"Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance, R-Hunterdon, said the report underscores the reason why many people are moving out of New Jersey.

"This demonstrates that New Jersey is out of sync with the rest of the nation, and that is why residents and businesses are leaving," Lance said. "It's depressing, very depressing.""

I like Lance, I've met him a couple of times. He is very sincere, which I find rare in politicians. He has hit the nail on the head. I think what has happened over the last 5 years is the boil a frog syndrome, but some how the water got too hot too fast, tax hikes and high housing costs relatively slow increase in wages. It has become a no brainer to move out!

8/15/2006 09:57:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Waiting 5 years to buy a house may not benefit you if you aren't around to enjoy it. Just something to consider.

8/15/2006 10:30:39 AM

Are you kidding me??? A little morbid, no??? I've owned properties for 20 years, now rent. I have to admit, my life is a little more varied and not so shallow that I need a house to enjoy my life!!!!! Is this what granite counter tops and a home theatre result in??? I have much more freedom now than I ever had owning a house; no self maitenance, no plumbers, no electricians, etc.... I don't even have to cringe when the tax bill comes. If I am not around in 5 years, my heirs will be happy that I have cash in the bank. If I am around in 5 years, I will be a lot happier that I did not overpay for an asset that has lost value. It seems to be an illogical, irrational, outrageous statement to say buy now, you may be dead in 5 years!!!!!

BC Bob

8/15/2006 10:09:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Now we are all dead so buy a house now so you'll be happy!

Lots of Fools reegretting their recent housing purchase as the bills start piling up.

Shove it!

8/15/2006 10:23:00 AM  
Blogger thatbigwindow said...

you could die in a car crash too you know...better buy now before that happens

8/15/2006 10:25:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Anon, you've made the fairly obvious case that it makes no financial, and strategic, sense to live in this area.

Have to say I agree. If you get a good deal on a house in the next year or two, with a nice commute into NY City, how much would that house be worth with a mushroom cloud over Manhattan? Not much.

I'm guilty of a certain amount of denial, trying not to think about it too much and "just live life."

But it's not a matter of "if" it happens, it's a matter of "when." There is no way to contain the technology, and our enemies love death more than life, and are hence not worried about the US response (which will be devastating, and probably be an H-Bomb so as not to destroy the oil fields).

Not fun stuff to think about.

8/15/2006 10:28:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Look at the GASML listings.

The MANIPULATORS ARE removing pictures to make it harder for people to track houses and see how they ain;t selling.

FTC should be brought in to investigate collusion.

8/15/2006 10:28:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Misconstruing past correlations as a reliable basis for decision making. The entire REAL ESTATE industries case for buying a house now.

8/15/2006 10:33:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you get a good deal on a house in the next year or two, with a nice commute into NY City, how much would that house be worth with a mushroom cloud over Manhattan?

I think the argument could be made that all bets are off--everywhere--if there's a mushroom cloud over Manhattan.

Or am I being too NY-centric here? Will life be just dandy in Kansas if NY is decimated by a dirty bomb?

8/15/2006 10:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

“‘David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said a market transition is apparent. ‘With more sellers competing for the pool of buyers, the pressure on home prices has evaporated in most metro areas,’ he said. ‘After a full year of double-digit gains in the national median price, the timing is right for a cooling in the rate of growth, we are presently experiencing a soft landing in the housing sector.’”

his nose is getting longer by the comment.

8/15/2006 10:46:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Random Walk, by Rob Peebles

Backsliding from conversion
August 14, 2006

Easy money can do a lot of things and one of them is giving people a burning desire to purchase a condominium, even folks who previously failed to show a flicker of interest in owning the innards of a building, including those who were happily renting an apartment and spending their Saturdays at Starbucks instead of Home Depot.

In the chart below, we see how the Fed’s No Renter Left Behind policy boosted the demand for condos in the last several years. For the record, existing condo sales increased 44% in just six years. And condo prices rose and kept rising, in part because new condo construction drove up the cost of materials, and because everyone wanted to participate in the American dream of owning their own interior living space. By June, prices of existing condos had jumped 87% in six years.

Easy money also gives developers the burning desire to sell condos, and lots of them. Just ask Ivana Trump whose knowledge of people who know about real estate is legendary. Ivana and her developers were all set to build a luxury condo tower billed as the tallest building in Vegas. Their estimates put their sales of inner space at more than $1 billion, making it the most expensive building ever sold, according to the AP’s Kathleen Hennessey. But even with the full support of the Federal Reserve and the real estate community’s vow to avoid the word “bubble,” only seldom say “slowdown” and never, ever, say “crash,” Ivana and friends are changing their minds about selling air in the desert.

And she’s not alone. According to Joe Gose of Investor’s Business Daily, back in 2004 developers descended upon Vegas with the zeal of Congressmen on a golf junket. They planned to construct 90,000 luxury condos even though the entire Vegas condo market totaled 2,000 units at the time. Apparently, plans to increase the Las Vegas condo market by a factor of 45 never registered as bubbly at the Fed. Nevertheless, as construction got underway, the cost of building a condo jumped 30-50%, which required higher prices for developers to maintain their margins. Prices rose and rose even as supply increased. Eventually, orders slowed and after some refiguring, developers started cancelling projects, resulting in loads of future real estate commissions being cancelled along with them.

Developers are jumping off the condo bandwagon elsewhere too. One luxury condo builder in Florida told the Associated Press that new orders fell 84% in the second quarter.

Part of the reason for the reversal in building plans is that the condo supply has been inflated by the conversion of apartment units for rent to condo units for sale. Take Los Angeles: Over the past five years, according to the LA Times, LA renters lost 11,000 rent controlled apartment units to either conversion or demolition of rental units destined to be born again as condos. In fact, there have been so many conversions in LA that some politicians are threatening to limit them. Developers, meanwhile, say conversions are the key to providing affordable housing to all those homebuyers determined to get their slice of equity in Southern California but can’t afford traditional housing.

Northern San Diego is another place with too many condos. The North San Diego County Association of Realtors figures that condo sales fell 28% year-over-year in July, and more than 2,600 condos are listed for sale with fewer than 260 of them selling. That means sellers have a 10-month supply on their hands and prices are down 10%. Still optimism reigns supreme. According to one realtor quoted in the North County Times, “…we flooded the market with condo conversions. That doesn’t mean the market has come down.”

Interest in the conversion business is fading around the country. Nationwide, 28,000 apartments were converted to condos last September, the peak of the conversion frenzy. By June, so many had lost faith that converts only numbered 3,354.

The No Renter Left Behind Fed policy has also kept rents artificially low for years as the homeownership rate moved toward 68% after holding at 64% for decades. But now that real estate--both the real thing and inner space--has priced so many Americans out of the housing market, renting is becoming more attractive. And more expensive. According to the BLS, rent-based costs rose 0.4% in June after a 0.6% jump in May, the most in a decade and a half. Ironically, these rent increases are playing havoc with the government’s inflation figures while exploding housing prices didn’t do much, if anything, to boost official inflation rates.

Maybe easy money makes government economists do strange things as well.

8/15/2006 10:47:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Read & Weep Con-artist.

One economist sees a hard landing. “Bearish real estate economist Christopher Thornberg, who says the Southern California housing market is a bubble beginning to pop, has left UCLA Anderson Forecast to strike out on his own.”

“Other market observers now agree that the market is cooling but are uncertain about whether it will result in a ’soft landing’ that won’t disrupt the economy. Thornberg said his expectations are growing more gloomy. ‘My guess is we’re going to have a hard landing,’ he said. ‘It’s ugly out there.’”

“There has been large-scale overbuilding of homes and condominiums nationwide, he said. ‘And here in Southern California we have had this massive price appreciation that is just not justifiable by any kind of standards of reasonable economics,’ he said.”

8/15/2006 10:49:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.ftc.gov/bc/compguide/index.htm
http://tinyurl.com/gc75r

Wouldn't it be nice if all information was in plain english, like this guide to anti-trust laws?
Note:
"Agreements to restrict advertising. Restrictions on price advertising can be illegal if they deprive consumers of important information. Restrictions on non-price advertising also may be illegal if the evidence shows the restrictions have anticompetitive effects and lack reasonable business justification. The FTC recently charged a group of auto dealers with restricting comparative and discount advertising to the detriment of consumers."

"Alert federal and state antitrust agencies if you suspect illegal behavior. Consumers and businesses are important sources of information about competitive conditions in the marketplace. While the FTC cannot act on behalf of an individual consumer or business, the information you provide can be helpful in revealing harm to competition and to consumers."

I've sent some info recently to the FTC: proach@ftc.gov

http://tinyurl.com/nclrz

I hope others on would consider this also. Put your tax dollars to work. Good luck.

Pat

8/15/2006 10:58:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The state of NJ has been on a
downslide for years now.

Now you all see the result.

Third world state.

Their I said it., Most people
don't have the balls .

8/15/2006 10:59:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"I think the argument could be made that all bets are off--everywhere--if there's a mushroom cloud over Manhattan."


Why is that? People would migrate West towards PA, etc. (Think tent camps for months that eventually become new towns.)


"Or am I being too NY-centric here?"


I think so. After 9-11, most of the financial firms created redundant trading floors, etc, in different parts of the country. Believe it or not, the country, or world, doesn't revolve around NY City.

8/15/2006 11:13:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

A little micro-implosion in Hoboken

http://tinyurl.com/glsv3

8/15/2006 11:30:00 AM  
Blogger thatbigwindow said...

Article on MSN

Could rising gas prices kill the suburbs?
When a high-cost commute reaches the point of no-return, home buyers will start finding houses closer to work. In fact, some already are.

By Marilyn Lewis



http://realestate.msn.com/buying/Articlenewhome.aspx?cp-documentid=742526>1=8479

8/15/2006 11:32:00 AM  
Blogger thatbigwindow said...

Chicago Finance - What are they talking about? Do you know any detail on that topic?

8/15/2006 11:37:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think so. After 9-11, most of the financial firms created redundant trading floors, etc, in different parts of the country. Believe it or not, the country, or world, doesn't revolve around NY City.

So you don't think the economic dislocation caused by losing NYC would be life-changing for most Americans? The slack would be picked up elsewhere, and life would go on as usual?

Sort of what happened in New Orleans, but on a larger scale?

I'd love to hear an economist weigh in on this one.

8/15/2006 11:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon. 8/15/2006 11:23:50 AM
Shove This!

8/15/2006 11:59:00 AM  
Blogger delford said...

thatbigwindow: well River Edge;s new taxes have come out, and it was another whopper, the town is in an uproar, and the increases are only just getting started..

Construction is starting on the new school addition (15 clasrooms), and people who voted yes for it, are now upset because they have finally realized that once you build it, its going to have a huge impact on proeperty taxes, as you have to hire teachers/teachers aides, custodial staff, and of course heat and light it.

I know a friend of mine who just hit 15K this year, 15k In River Edge, he has got one kid wleft who will be a senior in Sept, and then he is gone, I did not have the heart to tell him he can only be gone if he can sell it.

8/15/2006 12:01:00 PM  
Blogger thatbigwindow said...

Delford: I wonder what the people who live on Summit Avenue and Eastbrook will be paying now?

Remember "Holly M" Middle School in River Edge? The school which was torn down about 18 yrs ago to make way for the development which is now the end of Eastbrook Drive?

The town assured the residents that they would never need additional space in the elementary schools, so they sold the land to the developers. Many older residents of the town remember Holly M and are quite upset that the schools are being expanded when we had a perfectly good school in town way back when.

8/15/2006 12:08:00 PM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

NAHB is out with latest Housing data.

THE NAHB/WELLS FARGO HOUSING MARKET REGIONAL INDICES

What I understand is when HMI goes below 50 it is negative market. If you NE region, we were at 50 (balanced) in April, but have reduced to 34 in just 4 months.

THE NAHB/WELLS FARGO HOUSING MARKET INDEX (2003 - CURRENT)

8/15/2006 12:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shailesh,

Thanks for the info. By the way, since this index peaked in 6/2005, this has been the fastest decline in a 12 month period in the history of this index!!!!!!!!!

Putting aside all the factors and fundamentals which we discuss, just ask yourself a simple question. Would you buy a product from someone (Builders) who thought so poorly of their industry?????????? If they have such a lack of confidence, in their industry, are you confident signing a mortgage committment at today's exhorbitant prices?????

BC Bob

8/15/2006 12:26:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"So you don't think the economic dislocation caused by losing NYC would be life-changing for most Americans?"

Not at all, why would it? Outside of the stock market, NY City is not a critical component to the everyday functioning of the United States.


"The slack would be picked up elsewhere, and life would go on as usual?"

What "slack"? Manhattan is but one city, the country has many cities.

8/15/2006 12:29:00 PM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

US homebuilder mood index slides a 7th month -NAHBM

NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. homebuilder optimism sank for a seventh consecutive month in August as a dearth of buyers caused inventories of unsold homes to pile up, an industry trade group survey showed on Tuesday.

The National Association of Home Builders said its index of sentiment among homebuilders plunged 7 points to 32, its lowest since February 1991 and less than half the level of a year ago.

The NAHB said its gauge of traffic of prospective buyers also fell, by 6 points to 21, suggesting a steeper decline in the number of people visiting model home units over the last month than in any other period this year.

Rising inventories are due to "an increasing number of potential buyers adopting a 'wait-and-see' attitude because of uncertainty about where the housing market is headed," David Sieders, the NAHB's chief economist, said in a statement.



A reading below 50 means more builders view sales conditions as poor rather than good.

The NAHB's measure for current sales of new homes fell 7 points to 36 in August, and the index gauging its members' sales expectations for the next six months fell 6 points to 40. The three component indexes are at their lowest since 1991.

8/15/2006 12:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Given the current
course and speed NJ has
a significant crisis on the
horizon.

NJ towns are losing their appeal,
and fast. High taxes, White Population leaving by the busload.

A benefit package for the State,County, and town Cops,
Firefighters,and employees that
is killing the budgets and lastly
a crowd that thinks they are
entitled.

Its not going to work,NJ is not
well positioned to navigate
thru this mess.

The housing slowdown is really
going to hurt more people than
most think.

We have an approach of "it can't
happen here" well it is.

This could be a long winter in
housing.

8/15/2006 12:31:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

CNN / Money magazine:

"Home prices in deep freeze"
http://tinyurl.com/lxlpx

8/15/2006 12:34:00 PM  
Blogger thatbigwindow said...

Northern New Jersey is the parasitic twin to NYC. If anything happens to the host (NYC), the parasite suffers as well(NNJ)

8/15/2006 12:34:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

thatbigwindow said...
Chicago Finance - What are they talking about? Do you know any detail on that topic?

8/15/2006 12:37:53 PM

www.velocityhoboken.com/

8/15/2006 12:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

spin this big mouths.

The National Association of Home Builders said its index of sentiment among homebuilders plunged 7 points to 32, its lowest since February 1991 and less than half the level of a year ago.

The NAHB said its gauge of traffic of prospective buyers also fell, by 6 points to 21, suggesting a steeper decline in the number of people visiting model home units over the last month than in any other period this year.


HAHHAHAHAHA!

It's getting very ugly really fast but the industry propaganda machine is working overtime to drum up the last remaining fools left to buy into financial slavery.

BoooWHOOOO

8/15/2006 12:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The National Association of Home Builders said its index of sentiment among homebuilders plunged 7 points to 32, its lowest since February 1991

And the really bad price crash has not even hit yet!
HAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHA!

Now how does it feel?

8/15/2006 12:50:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Housing BUST!

A lot of lifestyles at risk here. lots of money made off the backs os fools now in financial desperation.
Does it feel good leeching off of unsuspecting buyers to make a buck?

BOOOOOOOOOWHOOOOOOOOOO!

PARTY IS OVER!

Lean times are a coming.

Hahahahahaha!

8/15/2006 12:53:00 PM  
Blogger NJGal said...

Chicago, the site won't open for me...what's going on, did prices drop at that nightmare known as the Velocity?

8/15/2006 12:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Misery Index blowing out to record terriotry.

Just wait 'til tsunami wave 3 and 4 hit. 2 is heading this wave..

how does it feel to take advantage of people to increase your lifestyle? Lean times are heading this way better get used to it.
ahahhaahhaha

8/15/2006 12:57:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Chicago, the site won't open for me...what's going on, did prices drop at that nightmare known as the Velocity?

From the first link Chicago posted it looks as if quite a few people are backing out of contracts at Velocity.

8/15/2006 01:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

For some demographic commentary... no, maybe lifestyle commentary. ;)
Let me show you the difference in lifestyle between NNJ and PA.
(this is not a price comparison, but an afternoon smile).

Go to
http://tinyurl.com/os24f
Type in 4786139
See Picture 3

I'm thinking that these kind of marketing ploys would never be used in NY or NNJ. [Guy picking his nose by a teddy bear?] I was trying to find the one with a really ugly dog lifting his leg in the back yard on the pool, but I can't.

So if you are very urban and citified in NNJ, and a mushroom cloud does come your way, maybe you better not pitch your tent in PA. But if you can take Pennsyltucky, it's great.

Pat

8/15/2006 01:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Politely said...

I'm convinced that NYC is, in fact, the center of the Universe. I'm exaggerating, of course, but not by a lot :). Look at the world class aspects of NYC, like finance, education, arts & culture, medicine, fashion, entertainment, diversity, etc. and it's pretty amazing. Roughly speaking, NYC by itself represents about 7.5% of US GDP (only 9 COUNTRIES in the world have a higher GDP than NYC) and about 2.5% of US population (compare pre-Katrina New Orleans of about 500K to NYC's 8MM people). There's a reason why they say "if you can make it here you can make it anywhere." And for the most part, anything that's really good somewhere else eventually finds its way here.

And even if many firms have set up backup data facilities and trading floors elsewhere, that doesn't really answer what happens when all the people that were supposed to staff those facilities are suddenly gone.

I'm pretty sure this would be a different country if NYC disappeared.

-P

8/15/2006 01:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Politely:

Yeah, but do you have nose-picking dudes on sectionals with teddy bears? Huh??? Beat that one.

Pat in PA.

8/15/2006 01:16:00 PM  
Blogger NJGal said...

"From the first link Chicago posted it looks as if quite a few people are backing out of contracts at Velocity."

Thanks Rich...have you been to the neighborhood? I'd be backing out as well...wait, change that - I would never buy in that area in the first place!

8/15/2006 01:19:00 PM  
Blogger delford said...

thatbigwindow: they could have moth balled Holly M Davis, and then reopened it when it was needed.

The people on Summit and Eastbrook, will not know what hit them with the increases that are coming.

I still am amazed the people of River Edge voted yes for this, and still they walk around patting themselves on the back thinking how special the town is.

It was apecial, its not any more. The people who understand this and have not blown all their equity are leaving.

8/15/2006 01:41:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Thanks Rich...have you been to the neighborhood?

My pleasure.
No, I haven't been down that way for quite some time now. I don't commute to the city (work out of the house) and I'm too old to go drinking in Hoboken these days.
But I couldn't imagine spending the money on those either! The location doesn't look like what I would call "prime".

8/15/2006 01:46:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Look at the world class aspects of NYC, like finance, education, arts & culture, medicine, fashion, entertainment, diversity"


Finance: Already handled since 9-11.

Education: A NY City education not needed for the United States to function.

Arts & culture: NY City arts & culture is not needed for the United States to function.

Medicine: NY City medicine is not needed for the United States to function.

Fashion: NY City fashion is not needed for the United States to function.

Entertainment: NY City entertainment not needed for the United States to function.

Diversity: NY City diversity not needed for the United States to function.


"And even if many firms have set up backup data facilities and trading floors elsewhere, that doesn't really answer what happens when all the people that were supposed to staff those facilities are suddenly gone."

Do you honestly believe the only people who understand the financial world and trading are located within the boundaries of NY City?


"I'm pretty sure this would be a different country if NYC disappeared."

Possibly, but the question wasn't if the country would be different (I don't even think it would), but rather if "all bets are off--everywhere--if there's a mushroom cloud over Manhattan."

The answer is clearly "No" in my opinion.

But we'll probably have the definitive answer soon enough, probably within 20 years.

8/15/2006 01:49:00 PM  
Blogger lindsey said...

anon 1:31 said


"NJ towns are losing their appeal,
and fast. High taxes, White Population leaving by the busload."

What's so appealing about white people?

8/15/2006 01:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The country would be different. And if there was a mushroom cloud over Manhattan you bet all bets are off because that would start World War 3. If you have traveled extensively Outside of the tristate area.. You would have a clue as to the rest of the US general population. NYC isn't the end all be all we would find a way to survive but don't act like it isn't needed at all.

8/15/2006 01:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

lindsey,

If you like living in a third
world status, then you love it.

Suggest you buy ASAP.

Just make sure on your Demographics
and school system.

Of course if you enjoy paying for
the privledge, great.

In the meantime the state going
broke.

8/15/2006 02:08:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Politely said...
I'm convinced that NYC is, in fact, the center of the Universe. I'm exaggerating, of course, but not by a lot :). Look at the world class aspects of NYC, like finance, education, arts & culture, medicine, fashion, entertainment, diversity, etc. and it's pretty amazing.

I'm pretty sure this would be a different country if NYC disappeared.
-P
8/15/2006 02:12:19 PM

Born, bred in NYC
Lived elsewhere
Understand what you say,
BUT
your comment underestimates the sheer magnitude and scope of the United States

NYC is massive, impressive, important, but the perspective you offer also points out how provincial and close minded NYC can be when its inhabitants don't pay attention

Don't succumb to that old cliche NEW YORKER magazine map

8/15/2006 02:28:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Finance: Already handled since 9-11.

Education: A NY City education not needed for the United States to function.

Arts & culture: NY City arts & culture is not needed for the United States to function.....


I think you are grossly understating the worldwide snowball effect, in terms of both economic impact and societal stability, that a nuclear strike on NYC would have.

You're not thinking about the retaliation that would be meted out to the perpetrators. The effect of foreign governments selling their US government securities in panic.

If the source of the bomb was Iran, for example, think about $300 for a barrel of oil (if you could buy oil at all) after our retaliatory strike.

With a million or more people dead, and five times that many seeking medical attention that just isn't available...think about martial law being imposed. And not just in New York.

And you still think that the folks in Kansas will get up in the morning, stretch their legs, and go about their daily business as usual?

8/15/2006 02:33:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

I've seen quite a few comments from people about how horrible this region is and how it will continue to go down hill.

I'm curious.
What is your gameplan for leaving?
Are you waiting for housing to drop in a certain region before you move?
Trying to line up a job in a certain area?
1-2-5-10 year plan and then you're gone?

Thanks

8/15/2006 03:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

NYC is a sh%t hole, and it has been
for a # of years.

If anybody thinks the Financial
universe is only NYC, what a mistake.

8/15/2006 03:09:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Deals are getting done, LA,SF,Miami,NJ,Conn,

Many locals other than NYC.

Conn. happens to be Hedge Fund Hqts.

The young turks do not want to
go into the City.

8/15/2006 03:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That $200 bucks a month extra for gas and/or heating is starting to show. Poor folk aren't complaining loudly, just pulling in their belts (as usual).

http://tinyurl.com/zgk3a

"3 ominous signs for retail ... maybe

Retail investors had three bits of bad news this morning: Wal-Mart's disappointment, Home Depot's warning, and Buffett's Gap dump. The question is, should they connect the dots or not?...

This is troubling news on two fronts. First, the fourth-quarter holiday period typically accounts for 50 percent of merchants annual sales and profits. Secondly, consumer spending fuels two-thirds of the nation's economy, thereby making it a vital engine of economic growth...

When interest rates were falling and home prices were rising, Americans quickly refinanced their mortgages at the lower rates, effectively turning their homes into piggy banks, and tapping into them for cash.

All that has changed.

"The home is the single biggest asset people own. When you have negative savings, your whole wealth is locked into the house," said Davidowitz."

Walmart better get cracking on their plan for alternative fuels or their next round of managerial training better include Mandarin.

Pat

8/15/2006 03:38:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Just got out of a marathon meeting and I've got a killer headache. Unfortunately, I've got to do the same tomorrow.

Thanks to everyone for keeping this thread on-topic and productive.

jb

8/15/2006 03:46:00 PM  
Blogger NJGal said...

"The location doesn't look like what I would call "prime"."

Far from prime - it's right next to the projects, which recently have seen some shootings.

I've actually been hearing a bit more about crime in Hoboken recently...wonder why?

8/15/2006 03:46:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

NYC is a sh%t hole, and it has been
for a # of years.


Annnnnnd you are leaving when?

Soon, yes?

8/15/2006 03:59:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

RE: NY City under attack

Rather than get bogged down in details, the original question posed was very interesting.

Worrying about $300/barrel oil in Atlanta isn't the same as driving (if you're lucky) West from Northern NJ because there's a radioactive cloud approaching.

How good is a "deal" on a house that will probably be worthless within 20 years?

While not fun to consider, there's a very real probability this will unfold before the mortgage is paid off.

Sound outlandish? Google up AQ Khan, and there will be more like him coming down the road.

Yes, escalation is a factor, which would impact other areas of the country, but NY City is target #1.

8/15/2006 04:04:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Unrealtor,

Are you one of the people who are "leaving"?

All,

I am REALLY curious as to how many on here, who think this area is "going to hell" are leaving.
Or are all the complaints and predictions just noise?

8/15/2006 04:34:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Are you one of the people who are 'leaving'?"


I've certainly given it much thought, and have already made trips to other states to look at job and housing prospects.

The reasons are:

Financial - lower cost of housing and lower cost of living.

Quality of life - States farther from the coasts tend to have nicer people, and are less concerned with "$300 jeans."

Security - I believe within the next 20 years NY City will go up in a mushroomn cloud, and if it takes longer, what will my children face.


I'm weighing all 3 factors above equally.

So even though I'm optimistic as home prices continue to fall, the other two factors still drive me to consider other states.

8/15/2006 04:54:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

NYC is not going up in a mushroom cloud.

Dirty bomb - maybe, but 1M won't die

I don't even see the constructive point of introducing this issue into the discussion.

Understand how difficult it is to even get the technology, then use it, then transport it, then deliver it........9/11 happened because it was easy to execute and a surprise

8/15/2006 05:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Flash:

Farber does the right thing.

She resigns

8/15/2006 05:18:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

{{{{I've seen quite a few comments from people about how horrible this region is and how it will continue to go down hill.}}}}

It is horrible if you are not making well in the six figures and actually have other interests other than shopping and 'dining' at overtrendy, snobby & trashy restaurants.

People are generally hosile, agressive & rude and as a rule very very combative & confrontational.

People in Manhattan are just passive agressive & self absorbed. In the other 4 boros, it is downright rudeness, road rage & extremely a***holish & boorish behavior toward others..

{{I'm curious.
What is your gameplan for leaving?
Are you waiting for housing to drop in a certain region before you move?}}}}

No, because I can put down 20% and live quite well in most other places except for maybe SF or LA.


{{Trying to line up a job in a certain area?
1-2-5-10 year plan and then you're gone?}}}

Maybe, but I have 20% to put down + six months living expenses assuming spending $2,000 a month excluding housing. Planning on leaving early next year in 2007 when current lease ends.

I was planning on leaving the region back in March after completing grad school in December, but got offered a decent job in Manhattan but not seeing any growth here. My pay is definately not keeping up when pay rises by 3% a year and I only make $75,000 a year.

8/15/2006 05:20:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

75K per year,

apply for a state job out here.

all bennies,

8/15/2006 05:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

AG resigns,

shows no remorse,, actually a little
brazen about it.

8/15/2006 05:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Taxpayers catch a break , no pension

8/15/2006 05:27:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Understand how difficult it is to even get the technology, then use it, then transport it, then deliver it."

The technology is already available (see AQ Khan referenced earlier). Delivering it is easy, in a truck-sized cargo container right up the Hudson River.


"I don't even see the constructive point of introducing this issue into the discussion."

It would certainly impact housing, and it's certainly a factor whether my family will continue to live in Northern NJ or not.

It's not a pleasant topic Chicago, but to believe "It can't happen here" is really denial. It's almost inevitable that it will happen, there's no way to stop it.

8/15/2006 05:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

corzine trys to doctor it up,
but yu cant put lipstick on a pig.

Boyfriend , very distraught,tickets
must be paid.

Car and driver gone.

Can you imagine the nerve of this
women to explain that the standard may be to high. Only in NJ.

8/15/2006 05:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hate to tell ya fellas,

NYC won't go up like a mushrrom cloud.
Very hard to get and MAINTAIN (key word) and ICBM.

But the easyest and most likely attack will come from a suicide bomber, maybe several at once.

In my opinion, remember I am x military, traveled to the middle east & seem that element that wants to kill you and me, and I also have slept with the CIA to a certain degree (flip your cell phone over, you see those letters CDMA, there is a reason why QCOM owns that patent and not Korea).

I forsee in the near future (less than 5 years), multiple suicide attacks at once and I think I even have a good idea as too taget locations and method of delivery. When this happens (notice I say... when). RE will drop to damn near zero, the street will take a dump worse than the days after 9/11.

Not trying to be an alarmest, but a realest. This is just my opinions, thats all. Nothing more or less, just opinion.

I could tell so much more that will make you unload in your shorts, but the last time I talked too much....I got a nice little warning under my hotel bed in Vegas (well, lets say an unincorporated area of Clark County), and this warning was not a horse head, but something were I first thought that there was an illegal organ harvest operation going on, until the gentleman in Dumont, NJ made things clear for me.

In Vegas the real black op deals are not done on the strip, but in the unincorporated areas. Also, tip about gambling in Vegas, never gamble on the strip, always go off the strip to the 1 deck shoots, easy to count cards that way, follow the aces, 4 come up, you fold, and ALWAYS hit on a soft 17, and always ride the black jack, because good things come in 3s.

I am giving you guys a damn wealth of information, some may say useless information, but there are a select few mavericks reading this blog. They understand.

SAS

PS-Forgot to tell ya about Sturgis, economics, guns, the Hellangels, the Outlaws, Custer State Park, and me. Thats another story for another day.

8/15/2006 11:31:00 PM  
Anonymous politely said...

Pat in PA:
"Yeah, but do you have nose-picking dudes on sectionals with teddy bears?"

Have you been spying on me? :)

Unrealtor & Chicago:
In 2001, in this city of 8 million people and thousands of buildings, two buildings were attacked and destroyed, resulting in about 3000 deaths. Although that could be viewed as a relatively insignificant loss, as a direct result, we've been living in a very different country (and world) since then. Is it provincial or closed-minded to think that the loss of the entire city would be life changing for Americans?

Familiarity may breed contempt, but that shouldn't result in ignoring the obvious.

-P

8/16/2006 02:18:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Is it provincial or closed-minded to think that the loss of the entire city would be life changing for Americans?
-P
8/16/2006 03:18:05 AM

the entire city
--> should be AN ENITRE CITY

to use THE is provincial and closed-minded

1M people dead is just as important in NYC, Chicago, or an earthquake causes SF to sink into the sea.

Do you want to mess with America? Blow up some Gulf Oil platforms.
Blow up Port Elizabeth and Port Newark.

8/16/2006 09:52:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No bubble where I live in Westfield. Houses are still selling. Two houses down the block sold for over asking price. Countless other houses are being bought by wealthy investors and sold for a profit. Don't be jealous that you missed out on the housing investment.

8/16/2006 10:18:00 AM  
Blogger NJGal said...

"Don't be jealous that you missed out on the housing investment."

Hahaha. Love that the trolls.

8/16/2006 04:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Boy, sounds like the Westfield resident(homeowner of course)has to convince us of no bubble.

Typical response:
"Don't be jealous that you missed out on the housing investment"

This crap about the owner's got more than their asking price. YOu can take that out to dry.. What a difference a two years make.
BTW: Where are the figures?

I'm a bit suspicious since most "wealthy investors" are WEALTHY because they're shrewed and not moronic market chasers.

Don't feel bad, you're not alone many recent homeowners/sellers alike have used those same sale slogans...

Do Tell us about wonderful Westfield properties.
Sound too close to Orange to me..

8/21/2006 05:02:00 PM  

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