Exodus of Middle Class Whites
From the Star Ledger:
THE FLEEING MAJORITY
THE FLEEING MAJORITY
The New Jersey population's white majority has been declining for years, but the pace of decline has accelerated, new U.S. Census figures suggest.
Only Massachusetts and North Dakota have lost white residents at a faster rate this decade, according estimates released today, and the change has both economic and social significance, experts said.
"Jobs are moving, and they're taking middle-class whites with them," said William Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. "Jobs and population go hand in hand."
New Jersey's minority population grew nearly 400,000 between 2000 and 2005, the Census' 2005 race and Hispanic-origin population estimates show, while the white population fell more than 94,000.
As a result, whites now make up 63 percent of the state's population -- compared with 67 percent five years ago, 74 percent in 1990 and 79 percent in 1980.
Five New Jersey counties -- Union, Middlesex, Bergen, Passaic and Essex -- are among the 25 in the nation with the largest loss of white population this decade, according to the Census.
...
Demographers have noted that the state recently experienced an uptick in "outmigration," which is when the number of people leaving the state exceeds the number moving in.
The main reasons are the state's relatively flat economy combined with an ever-increasing cost of living, experts say. While New Jersey remains the nation's highest income state, there has been little growth in good-paying jobs, and residents are feeling the burden of high housing costs and taxes more than ever.
The new Census data are "really linked to the outmigration patterns of the state, and it shows that they are predominantly white non-Hispanics who are moving out," said James W. Hughes, dean of the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University.
57 Comments:
From Bloomberg:
Hovnanian Profit Misses Targets as U.S. Housing Slows
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., New Jersey's largest homebuilder, said profit in the three months through July was as much as 27 percent lower than forecast after the pace of sales slowed and potential buyers canceled.
Fiscal third-quarter earnings were in the range of $1.10 to $1.20 a share, Hovnanian said in a statement today, compared with earlier guidance of $1.40-$1.50. Full-year profit will be as much as 32 percent lower than predicted, the builder said.
...
``Predicting short-term financial performance in today's homebuilding market has become increasingly challenging,'' Ara Hovnanian, the Red Bank, New Jersey-based company's chief executive officer, said in the statement.
...
Hovnanian is also likely to incur walk-away fees for renegotiating ``a significant number'' of land-buying contracts, it said. The company cut its range for full-year earnings to $5.00-$5.75 a share from a previous target of $7.20-$7.40.
where are the folks going to? (i mean the white exodus)
--BM
Here is a recent report on NJ migration patterns. I wish I could sum it up in a few lines, but it is much too complicated for that.
Moving Out: New Jersey's Population Growth and Migration Patterns
well what we have known for a while
is now front page news.
nj is turning in to a third world
state.
and its broke to boot.
this is what the last 40 years has
done to us.
and its not only nj.
Gives a good example of the RE bubble in small town, USA. Its not just NJ.
http://tinyurl.com/p3ga7
SAS
Although everyone knew this was happening, I've never seen such concrete numbers. NJ is turning into another Los Angeles. I'm thinking about leaving. I've had enough
Another realtor "myth" debunked.
Commish checks drying up pressure building and no end in sight.
Good luck realtors.
The "motivated " seller listing.
http://newjersey.craigslist.org
/cgi-bin/search?areaID=170&subAreaID=0&
query=motivated+seller&
catAbbreviation=rfs&min
Ask=min&maxAsk=max
Many must be falling behind on the monthly payments. Good luck Bagholders.
Here is a little bit about China for those interested in these global affairs that tricle down to USA. You might think this has nothing to do with USA. But, this is an example of China's ndustrial boom. They are raising their standard of living (although they still have a long way to go), while we, especially in NJ, our standard of living is being reduced. The middle class is disappearing.
Remember this everytime you buy something that says "Made in China" and goto that dirty place called Walmart.
Also, I have been to Shenzhen last year. It will blow you away to see the amount of construction going on there.
http://tinyurl.com/o94k4
SAS
Well we have all known this, now it's going mainstream. The free ride is over the wave is starting to crash. Put all the pieces of the puzzle together;
-100k leaving the sate in 2004 with incomes at approx $1 billion, not theory straight from the IRS. What will this # show for 2005 & 2006???
-High paying jobs fleeing the state. Manufacturing and info tech jobs replaced by lower paying service jobs.
- James Hughes, Policy and planning stating that NJ is facing it's most uncertain times since the Great Depression. His words not mine.
To whom do you sell your 600K POS??? To whom, to whom???
Somebody recently had a post summing up the times with a Simom & Garfunkel song, Bridge over Troubled Water.
I will include one from my favorite, The Boss;
MY CITY OF RUINS
There's a blood red circle
On the cold dark ground
And the rain is falling down
The church door's thrown open
I can hear the organ's song
But the congregation's gone
My city of ruins
My city of ruins
Now the sweet bells of mercy
Drift through the evening trees
Young men on the corner
Like scattered leaves
The boarded up windows
The empty streets
While my brother's down on his knees
My city of ruins
My city of ruins
Come on rise up! Come on rise up!
Come on rise up! Come on rise up!
Come on rise up! Come on rise up!
Come on rise up! Come on rise up!
Now there's tears on the pillow
Darlin' where we slept
And you took my heart when you left
Without your sweet kiss
My soul is lost, my friend
Tell me how do I begin again?
My city's in ruins
My city's in ruins
BC Bob
SAS,
Your are 100% on the money!!!!!! China is humming, factories are churning, infastructure is exploding. While this is going on our MTA workers, who are getting paid 60K for sitting on their ....., are going on strike because the union does not feel that they should pay $10 to help defray the cost of their health care benefits. Go get a private sector job!!!! I can go on and on with this.
Did you ever wonder when we will be exporting our auto's to China while they export their bicycles to us!!!!!!!
BC Bob
Having had to read the report (Moving Out) as part of my job, I've been thinking about this a lot lately.
I'm not sure the migration patterns are that different from the historic norm with the change coming not from the people moving out so much as the people moving in.
If instead of Honduras or Bangladesh, the new immigrants were from Ireland or Italy, there would be no "white flight," just people talking about "Micks" and "Wops", though of course never publicly. Just, you know, between you and me.
As people make money, or chase jobs, they move, that's all there is to it. Cities -- and all of North Jersey pretty much is urban --- are where immigrants get started. When they make enough money, or see a better job opportunity, they will move too.
That's why they call this country a melting pot.
On KHov:
As much as this site is supposed to be filled cheerleaders for the crash, I don't think too many people saw that number coming at this point.
I think that's the biggest drop this year, I certainly don't recall anyone else saying profits would drop 32 percent this year.
Lindsey
SAS,
I agree wholeheartedly about your statement about Walmart.
This year, our manufacturing plant here in NJ will shut down. Simply due to the fact that we cannot compete with the imports.
Many towns embrace Walmart b/c they bring in good ratables and purport to increase the labor force. Well, I just got done laying off approximately 25 employees this year. For 2005, we operated solely to help our employees maintain their jobs. This year, we cannot do it any longer.
Walmart is simply deconstructing this country. Everytime they advertise their low low prices means more jobs being lost in this country. When you destroy manufacturing, you not only destroy good jobs, you destroy the backbone of the USA. Right now, the current status of the manufacturing industry is that if all imports were to stop coming in, we, the USA, would not be able to sustain our own selves.
So for those who keep claiming that this country needs to change to a service oriented country, give me a reason why we can maintain our own sustainability. We even send our tech service overseas to India.
The correlation here is this real estate bubble had no clear foundation other than mass hysteria due to lower interest rates fostered by greed to make a quick buck. Walmart doesn't care about quality. they don't care about the manufacturers. They care about their stock holders. it comes down to money and simply greed.
I've never shopped at Walmart. And every time i buy something that says, "Made in China" I don't expect much.
In effect, we are all to blame. We all wanted cheaper prices. But in the end, if cheap is what you want, don't expect much from it.
I have a feeling the U.S. is going to start to see some pressure from the European Big Boxers (Tesco, Metro, Carrefour). I know Carrefour's original push into the U.S. market was quite a failure. It wasn't the model that was wrong, it was the timing.
Pick any one of those guys, give them a strong (and efficient) supply chain here in the U.S., and watch out Walmart.
When I'm in Europe I look forward to shopping in the hypermarkets, however I'll seldom ever step into a Walmart here.
grim
SAS said...
BC Bob,
You better buy your bike now before they go up 10x in price ;)
As soon as gas hits $5-10/gallon (and in my opinion it will) people will be riding their bikes everywhere and traffic will be a thing of the past, and the train cars will be so crowded, [deleted].
The interesting thing will be when this happens, how it will effect China? Not sure, but the amount of cheap labor in China can really offset anything. Remember in China, there is always someone who will work for less and they have state run camps where the prisoners are forced to work (not really a bad idea, we should do that here, instead they watch playboy and espn).
WHen you buy things at Walmart, Target, Costco, HomeDepot, all this stuff, for the most part, is made by state run factories in China. And what else does China do with that money? Its building and making missles, missles that goto Iran & N. Korea. ANd let me tell you, the Defense buisness is a very dirty and deadly buisness, especially if those missles have to be smuggled. I learned that in the 80s when I was hired as outside contract by what was called Sperry Corp to do government defense contracting.
Hate to say it, but we helped Bin Ladens crew in 79 supporting the mujahideen. Because the damn Russians were invading Afganistan (crapistan as I use to say). This country has a great way of creating its enemies i.e Hitler, Hussein, Bin Laden, the list goes on and on.
In 79, we didn't know that these Mujahideen insurgents would turn out to be what they have become today. Shows you how important education really is, because alot of people in the middle east are easily influenced because they lack education and the big oil money flows to the wrong and very bad people. Think of that next time you fill up the gas tanks.
Lets not us forget China is still communists and they come off as a partner, but they are only partners and willing to work with us as long as they are the ones making the money, and you are spending your money.
I love Chinese citizens, there women make great lovers (he..he..yes), but there govt is shit and something we should keep an eye on. Because the odds are good, they hold the mortgage to your house. In my opinion, China really helped fuel this national bubble.
SAS
Grim: This post was edited
SAS,
Sorry, but I had to edit your post. I didn't want to delete it, because it is on topic, but the boxcar comment was out-of-place.
grim
He he..sorry Grim
I am sorry you had to edit my post. I forget my big mouth sometimes. Thanks.
Something tells me I am too free flowing with information on this blog site. Last time I spoke too much, I got a nice visit from those gentlemen in Dumont, NJ.
I am sure those in Dumont get my drift.
SAS
{{{They don't want to associate with others outside their circle.}}}
But then again, no one wants to associate themselves with a low wage earner like myself.
I went to Wal*Mart to buy a set of china--it was made in India.
-Jamey
"That's why they call this country a melting pot."
You're behind the times. Now kids are taught it's a "salad bowl" where different things are mixed together, but not assimilated (melted together) as "American."
The PC mindset they're indoctrinating children with today is a poison.
Skep-tic 9:57, fantastic post.
if you had said this about the
whites just a few weeks ago on this
site, you would be accused of
the r word. racism
now the cats out of the bag.
the numbers dont lie.
walk any street in nnj and look at the people.
a immigration officer could make
a living just standing on
any street corner.
and its getting worst.,, next up
the Gang problem, which is one
of NJ biggest.
"Walmart is simply deconstructing this country. Everytime they advertise their low low prices means more jobs being lost in this country. When you destroy manufacturing, you not only destroy good jobs, you destroy the backbone of the USA."
I saw a Frontline documentary on WalMart, and it showed how they force US companies to use parts and labor from China.
How does WalMart do this? WalMart calculates how much the American-made product would cost to make in China, then tells the business their product must cost exactly that amount wholesale.
The company can either walk away from WalMart distribution (worth tens to hundreds of millions each year), or fire Americans and hire child labor in China and elsewhere.
The full video of the documentary is available here for free:
http://pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/walmart/
http://tinyurl.com/ztbdm
Anonymous said...
Although everyone knew this was happening, I've never seen such concrete numbers. NJ is turning into another Los Angeles. I'm thinking about leaving. I've had enough
8/04/2006 08:31:49 AM
SHUT UP!
Need I remind you that a generation ago add in the Bergen Record for nannies in Ridgewood used to say "NINA".
No Irish Need Apply
Don't confuse change with regression.
a immigration officer could make a living just standing on
any street corner
Immigration officers get paid on “commission”?
Ass
now, now boys. Don't let tempers flare. Each has own opinions and we have to respect that. If tempers start to flare, then good decision making and discussion get clouded and we don't want that.
And if its a million dollar deal, you really don't want that ;)
SAS
SAS,
You are right about China. They are buying our treasuries now, not because they feel that this is the best place to invest, but they need us now, note now. Our excessive spending, personal,state and fed is fueling their unprecented growth, 10% GDP!!!!!!!
Once we slow down, and we will, they, along with the other foreign countries who are supporting our excessive appetite for spending, will drop us like a cheap suit. The dollar will tank and we will be forced to raise rates to attract foreign $ to support our debt. I laugh when you hear that real estate never goes down. Historically, RE returns 0 % nominal (real) rate of return(after inflation). We had a 24 year period from approx 1918- 1942 where real estate actually returned less than the inflation rate. This period saw the great RE bubble in Fla and the crash of 1929. What event brought RE back, where it again returned the rate of inflation??? WW-II. We have had the dot com crash, we are in the beginning stages of the great RE crash. Does anybody WW-III, with China, in 2012-2015?????
BC Bob
Remember folks that it is not those countries which have low labor who are at fault. it is our own for creating this. every time you shop at Walmart, you make a nice contribution to further job losses here in America.
Melting pot, salad bowl, fruit cup or what have you, this country is still founded upon diversity. it's these giant companies who by their very nature must satisfy their rich stockholders who are driving the stake through America. But who can blame them, we are a capitalist economy. But capitalism does not mean you destroy the fibers or our very own flag.
I support a global economy but I want things to be fair and competitive. China pays $90 to an employee per MONTH! Now, how is that competitive?
But as to a lifestyle issue, I simply don't buy Chinese products b/c they are 95% junk. the 5% comes from American ingenuity. We can design it here but can't make it b/c we can't compete on the labor front. If i want a quality Asian product, I look for Made in Japan. But even the two high tech Asian countries, Japan and South Korea outsource to China. But, they, unlike America do not outsource key products to China. They are smarter in that sense. They know the Chinese are good at copying. Take a look at Alibaba.com and you'll see that China offers everything under the sun. Sad part is that they don't spend money on R&D like the other Asian countries. They just copy everything. It's this lack of intellectual property that also has caused major problems.
Don't even get me started with India. Dell has been a classic example of taking jobs out of America. Forget jobs out of NJ... take a look at this country!
Folks, buy quality not junk. Isn't that the reason why most of us are here? Crappy 3 BR/1BTH homes selling for $600K? Pure junk!
Yup BC Bob,
you are right on. and where was the olympics before WWII? ;)
when does china have its olympics? ;)
funny, the writing can't get any clearer. its almost a cosmic joke.
SAS
If the dollar tanks, so do China's exports. If China's exports tank, so does the Chinese economy. If the Chinese economy tanks, they will have 2 billion disgruntled and hungry peasants.
It's not a postition a totalitarian regime wants to be in.
Way too much racial and prejudiced comments here. Especially about Walmart and China.
China is a very peaceful country, its history more than proved that.
It's got a successful market machanism and Chinese people are typically hard working. All that 'communist' crap is so sick.
Everyone with an open mind knows China helped and it's still helping to lift US living standards.
And the bait is set...
ahh, until China reaches the tipping point, where in no longer needs USA. I has Russia, Korea, Taiwan, Iran, and alot of other countries along the way.
At this rate, USA will no longer be the major player, and we will have the role as say France or England. The baton is being passed before our eyes. Wether we accept it or not that is another thing.
Why do you think our currency is being challenged as the reserve currency of the world? Also, it is being challenged in the oil markets..
Thank god for a strong military. Other countries shit there pants when they even think our military is coming there way.
But keep on your mind, an economic bomb is worse than a military bomb.
Not only are we creating our own economic bombs with RE bubble, low saving rate, consumerism, and just plain stupidity. China is slowly, but surely positioning itself for its own economic bomb to the USA.
Things have the potential to get real ugly. Bob said it best..."for now". But there will come a time when it won't matter if your kids goto college or not, someone from China will have that job anyway.
Just my opinions...
SAS
anon 9:18:57 wrote:
"There is no 'White Flight' out of Queens. More Whites are moving into Queens than immigrants like the above."
Unless I'm missing something isn't that contradicted by the previous post "A Changing Region"?
It's right there:
"Between 2000 and 2005, the number of white residents dropped by 12 percent in the Bronx and 7 percent in Queens..."
For the record, I'm split on the illegal immigration thing. I know it hurts us as a nation, but if I'm standing in their shoes in Nicaragua or Mexico, I hope I would have the sense and the guts to act in my own best interest.
The immigration problem, like drugs and terrorism, can't really be successfully adressed by law enforcement because its roots are in a whole different arena.
Lindsey
can we focus on houses and prices here? no more political topics please.
US is a multi-nationanity country! New comers from all over the world will take your jobs if you don't keep the good work...
anonymous 8/04/2006 11:28:06 AM: I am with you!
anon 11:28:06,
Don't use the racial and prejudice excuses as a crutch to overcome denials. Something tells me propaganda driven hearsay may have influenced your thinking?
Standard of living raised? Whew, maybe for the Walmart family.
btw- Walmart family has already built multimillion bunkers in preparation for wwIII. I can't remember the exact location. Someone on here must know. What do the Waltons know that we don't?
Please don't make me lecture to the class like I did when I taught at Tuck. Because you may not like what I say.....
SAS
PS. If I was a betting man (and I am...always hit on a soft 17) and I would bet you never even heard of Hutchison Whampoa & Li Ka-Shing??? Mmmmm....aye?
i see the libs trying to justify
the white exodus.
nj is broke and part of the
problem is the welfare state that it has become.
careful with this housing
because pricing is dropping very
quickly.
... and he landed himself a BIG one!
"nj is broke and part of the
problem is the welfare state that it has become."
When are you leaving? Soon?
SAS,
only Walmart family? Have you or your family ever shop in Kmark, Sears, Macy's, Load & Taylors, and etc????????????????????????
Someone tried to live without "made in china", ends up he can't!
If I got money, I would buy whatever I wanted: made in any where! SO can anyone!
SAS,
Actually, you are the one that's in denial. You are 'uninformed' (or you choose to be??) on China & Walmart and on capitalism & globalization just as those greedy sellers trying to sell $400k houses ofr $600K+.
I feel sorry for those who were at Tuck wasting time with your lecture, if there ever was one.
PS. Wrong bet for you again (don't slap on face). I know Hutchison Whampoa & Li Ka-Shing.
The middle class has been disappearing for years. With the way things are going. There will be no middle class. Either low income or rich..
Five out of the top ten wealthiest are Waltons - each one of them worth $18 billion. How can you not be so prejudiced about Walmart? Watch the Frontline special and you'd see that Walmart's business practices are not really in the favor of America, in general.
As for China, I am not prejudiced against a race of people. Rather the fundamentals behind the country's powering authority which is flawed.
Take a look at this:
Three Gorges Campaign:
http://www.irn.org/programs/threeg/
Millions of Chinese will be displaced from their homes. Also watch Frontline:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/red/
I would never be prejudiced about the people. But the fact remains that there is an issue at hand which neither reflects well upon America. I blame corporate America for lacking foresight. The same corporate America which stained the earth and polluted our rivers. The same is going on in China. I'd say that I feel more sad for the average Chinese person. But remember for every 100K Chinese person, there's one who now lives up top a penthouse enjoying all capitalist qualities in a commmunist state. How ironic. Let's not let greed get in the way and yes, look and think with an open mind.
I've also been to China. It's sad how poor they live. $90 a month? China has much to go in regards to social reform.
anon,
"Someone tried to live without "made in china", ends up he can't!
If I got money, I would buy whatever I wanted: made in any where! SO can anyone! "
First you tell me you can't buy from anyone except China. Then next sentence you tell me, with your money, you can buy from anywhere.
With all due respect, I am a tad bit puzzled by your rebuttle?
Please define "anywhere" and maybe we can discuss this? Also, this is a RE blog, so please tie it into the current RE bubble because or the first order people on this blog will have our heads on a plate ;)
SAS
Yse, SAS, now you know what we should talk about here!
hey, I have opinions, just like you. Just because you don't like doesn not make them wrong....yes?
Please correct me as to being "wrong".
I am very open minded and always willing to be stand corrected.
SAS
sorry RE bloggers....
lets take the China thing offline.
As for China, perhaps elesewhere, aye anons??
SAS
This discussion had a good run while it lasted. But like every emotional topic, it eventually begins to heat up and get out of hand.
Let's get back on topic..
this is so typical, blame china for everything, the out sourcing of jobs, the gas price, and now the real state bubble.
Is it China's fault that we Americans are wasteful and like to drive around in SUVs? is it China's fault that our public education systems are failing so bad that our next generation have problem compete with workers from other parts of the world?
and regarding their exports, why don't you go to the stores and look at all those "made in China" products, see how many of them are Chinese brands, I am sure that most of them are American brands, but "made in China". Let's look at Nike for example, the Chinese worker over see probably makes 10 cent or even less for each shoe that produce, the raw material is probably just a few dollars, and those shoes goes for hundreds in the stores here, so who really makes the profit here? is it the Chinese workers that slaves all the long in the factories? come on, have some common senses.
Blaming China is such easy thing to do for the politicians, since they are a communist country, and they are suppose to be "evil", it is just suprising that how many people are falling for it. I guess may be our failing education system has something to do with that.
oops, sorry, had the window open for a while and didn't refresh. ya, let's drop the topic.
Bottom line China created a country of hard workers. Americans have gotten to complacent (and I am not Chinese)
Whats wrong with Whites leaving NJ, some would actually applaud that. "Oh no a black family that can afford to live in a nice white neighborhood had just moved across the street; so what they are probably more educated than me; its time to run for the hills the bloods and crips are coming. My daughter is gonna get pimped out by their son"
The same nonesense is going on in Long Island, NY. Some minorities work hard and do not want to live in crime riden neighborhoods just like whites.
Wow!!! Just got out of a meeting. Boring s*it compared to this. Let's discuss something different;
WHY HISTORY TELLS US THAT THE RE MARKET IS EXTREMELY OVERVALUED AND IN UNCHARTERED WATERS???
If you go back 110 years, prior to 2001, you will see that RE,as an investment, has returned very close to the inflation rate, basically it's real rate of return (return after inflation) has been zero. There were times, in the most recent past,1975-1980 and 1985-1990 where this ratio grew to 1.25X the inflation rate. These 2 time periods and any other time period previous, the advance ALWAYS retraced to the norm 1-1. A funny thing occurred in 2001-2005. The real rate of return skyrocketed to 1.8X the inflation rate. Now, with all things being constant, if this markets just corrects to its norm,we are talking about a 45% decline from the top. We can talk theory and hypothesis till we are blue in the face. These are the facts. Are we more comfortable in believing the past 110 years prior to 2001 or the past 5 years. Your decision!!!
PATIENCE,PATIENCE,PATIENCE
BC Bob
Check it out--simililar to the "motivated seller" search on Craigslist, but yields even greater results--look what happens when you search for "Just Reduced"
477 results in NJ
729 results in NY
hehehe
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/cgi-bin/search?areaID=170&subAreaID=0&query=just+reduced&catAbbreviation=rfs&minAsk=min&maxAsk=max
Post a Comment
<< Home