Northern New Jersey Weekly Inventory Update
GSMLS - http://www.gsmls.com
(Garden State Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)
9/6 - 18,687
9/13 - 18,886 (1.1% Increase)
NJMLS - http://www.njmls.com
(New Jersey Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)
9/6 - 9,119
9/13 - 9,184 (0.7% Increase)
MLSGuide - http://www.mlsguide.com
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)
9/6 - 2,683
9/13 - 2,705 (0.8% Increase)
(Garden State Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)
9/6 - 18,687
9/13 - 18,886 (1.1% Increase)
NJMLS - http://www.njmls.com
(New Jersey Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)
9/6 - 9,119
9/13 - 9,184 (0.7% Increase)
MLSGuide - http://www.mlsguide.com
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)
9/6 - 2,683
9/13 - 2,705 (0.8% Increase)
66 Comments:
At a time of year when new listings should be slowing, they are increasing. I smell subtle hints of worry.....
Please be aware that these inventory data are only for online for sale houses, some of other houses are for sale by owner, and some of for sale through real estate magzines...
I saw a few of houses which are for sale but not listed online...
check out this ad:
**************
WAITING FOR THE BOTTOM OF THE MARKET? It has peeked [sic] here!
Now a total reduction of $100,000.
A smart buyer will know opportunities will never get better than this.
If this condo doesn’t sell at this bottom of the market price, it will become a rental until the Real Estate market changes.
FYI, the unit right next to this - with no renovation - but some larger, recently sold for $105M [sic] more last year.
************************
dripping with anger and desperation. his C-class lease payment must be overdue
Oh No ... more inventory glutting the markets.
More sellers will be duking it out to find 1 buyer.I have heard that there are 10 sellers for every 1 qualified potential buyer.
Odds look really bad sellers.
Watch the rats keep jumping their asking price below the former lowest priced rat. Just like mexican jumping beans.
How far prices fall is anyone's guess but they are dropping and their are alot of wary sellers.
But inventory continues to keep going up daily. Oh no this can't be happening.
“‘We were seeing home prices and mortgage debt servicing cost-to-income ratios increase to unhealthy levels in some housing markets, which precipitate an adjustment,’ says Mr. Stevens.”
“The National Association of Home Builders told Congress today that the current downswing in home sales and housing production following the record housing boom of 2004-2005 is expected to bottom out around the middle of next year.”
“Testifying before the Senate Subcommittees, NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders said..the record housing starts and sales of the past two years were well above levels supportable by demographics and other fundamental demand factors, and were fueled to a great extent by investors and speculators seeking to make a quick profit and through the surge of unconventional ARMs.”
“‘In retrospect, it was the finance and price-driven acceleration of buying for homeownership and for investment that drove housing market activity into unsustainable territory during the boom,’ he said.”
Blah blah blah!
Some old garbage in Garbage out.
Interpretation....Many fools are in over their heads and will be foreclosed on shortly. House prices will be tanking so sellers smell the coffee and start dropping prices aggressively.
Comprende?
“RealtyTrac’s Rick Sharga says the rising foreclosure numbers are in part the result of rising monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages, which have a low introductory interest rate that heads higher after an initial period. ‘Usually, foreclosures are a lagging [market] indicator,’ he says. ‘But we’ve never had a situation like this with adjustable-rate mortgages amounting to $400 billion to $500 billion coming up for adjustment over the rest of the year.’”
“‘The real wild card is the nature of the loans themselves. Historically, ARMs were underwritten pretty conservatively. There has been a loosening of standards with lower credit worthiness and smaller down payments,’ Sharga says”
The key word is "historically".
we know now that millions signed up for IO kamakazi mission.
"More sellers will be duking it out to find 1 buyer.I have heard that there are 10 sellers for every 1 qualified potential buyer."
"Odds look really bad sellers."
9/13/2006 01:37:33 PM
Oh how the tide turns, just 1-2 years ago it was the opposite, multiple buyers bidding on one property. The only question now is how long/severe the down turn is.
BC Bob
Foreclosures spiked in August:
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/060913/091306_foreclosures_spiking.html?.v=4
Same town, two different realtors. Which one is lying?
------------------------------------------------------
Reported by Jill Smith, REALTOR
As of August 25, 2006.
Real Estate Market Still Strong, Still Growing
The general feeling about the current real estate market is that the market has cooled, some believe has turned. However, if you look at the sales statistics* the market is still strong and still growing.
Market: Neutral between buyer/seller
Prices: Rising
http://tinyurl.com/gjrkl
------------------------------------------------------
Reported by Paul Stillwaggon & Pat Cornish, REALTOR, e-PRO
As of August 28, 2006.
SUMMER MARKET REMAINS COOL
July was another cool month for the housing market as declining buyer-confidence continued to take its toll on home sales. In July, contract-sales activity declined 11% from the June level and was 25% below the year earlier pace in July 2005. That this slowdown comes in the midst of the prime March-to-August selling season when home sales should still be running hot provides compelling evidence of a market transition wherein home buyers have greater control over final selling prices than at any time since 1991, a 15-year span.
From an inventory perspective, the number of homes being offered for sale now stands 67% higher than a year ago. This equates to a 9-month supply as compared to only 4-months last year at this time.
Market: Leaning towards buyers
Prices: Falling
http://tinyurl.com/kn47h
------------------------------------------------------
Find your town here:
http://www.realtor.com/RealtyTimes/marketconditions.asp?open&poe=realtor?open&link=http://mktc.realtytimes.com/mktc/stateviewjs/New_Jersey?open&pID=r.com2
http://tinyurl.com/l4re5
Source: L.A. Times (August 28, 2005)
“Equity Is Altering Spending Habits and View of Debt”
“If you paid your mortgage off, it means you probably did not manage your funds efficiently over the years,” said David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors and author of “Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?” “It’s as if you had 500,000 dollar bills stuffed in your mattress.”
He called it “very unsophisticated.”
Anthony Hsieh, chief executive of LendingTree Loans, an Internet-based mortgage company, used a more disparaging term. “If you own your own home free and clear, people will often refer to you as a fool. All that money sitting there, doing nothing
2 dunces....
you people keep repeating the same things over and over again. yet when I look in the paper and go to open houses the house prices are not going down. i can't understand it for the life of me. the way you guys are commenting you make it sound like the market has already dropped 10% but it hasn't. i have a feeling a lot of you are renting and post based on what you want to happen, not what has happened. oh well.
sily you didn't see the dropping, couple house I saw in morris county have dropped from 1.5m range to 1.2m and still online and I still got listing agents reminder me again, again and again for the price redution....
Hahahah, wait and see next sprint, I bet they will tell me it's 999k.....
"the way you guys are commenting you make it sound like the market has already dropped 10% but it hasn't."
You using mls numbers? Figures.
I am hearing in the field that housing is dead. Completely dead.No buyers at all. And you see a price take 10-15% right off the top and sellers are getting more responsive without the entitlement attitude.
R You a crabby starving realtor?
who the hell is buying houses over 1 million dollars? I could care less if those houses drop by 300k... I still can't afford them and neither can the majority of us.
Another new post over at Another F@ed Borrower:
http://www.housingbubblecasualty.com/
Do NOT listen to anyone that says prices are not going down.
Prices are dropping and will drop alot more when these "2005 dream" sellers finally wakeup all at the same time.
"yet when I look in the paper and go to open houses the house prices are not going down. i can't understand it for the life of me"
Since when does the price in the paper determine an agreed upon price??? You look at an asking price today, I look at the 3-5 year picture. Big difference.
BC Bob
We are buying the million house, so are two of our friends!
And my point was the price has dropped more than 20% but the house is still for sale...
Umm... excuse me? If it has been 8 months since the 'housing crash' news has started and they haven't lowered their prices yet... What on earth makes you think they will suddenly change their minds now?
"the way you guys are commenting you make it sound like the market has already dropped 10% but it hasn't."
See this house listed for $745,000?
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1067710048
That "owner" paid $755,000 in June 2004.
Nice, huh?
yeah ok buddy, your buying a million dollar house yet you are wasting your time on someones blog in the middle of the day. either you don't work and are an unemployed renter OR you hit the lottery/inherited a fortune. This is an easy one to figure out!
"the way you guys are commenting you make it sound like the market has already dropped 10% but it hasn't."
See this house listed for $745,000?
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1067710048
That "owner" paid $755,000 in June 2004.
Nice, huh?
9/13/2006 04:50:34 PM
That is not even a 2% drop....
Umm... excuse me? If it has been 8 months since the 'housing crash' news has started and they haven't lowered their prices yet... What on earth makes you think they will suddenly change their minds now?
U obviously are a starving NO commish realtor. start convincing your flipper friends taking a loss now is better than taking an even bigger loss in 6 months. Your choice though.
Just look at lowball big guy.
Directly in the field a few are saying Housing is DEAD! Really DEAD!
Here's a guy who lost $300,000 in one year:
320 Lupine Way, Short Hills
1. Jun 2005 - Bought for $1,300,000
2. Oct 2005 - Put on market @ $1,295,000 (MLS 2204767)
3. Dec 2005 - Listing withdrawn
4. Mar 2006 - Put on market @ $1,198,500 (MLS 2261656)
5. May 2006 - Price dropped to $999,850
6. Jun 2006 - Under Contract (June 12)
7. Jun 2006 - Closed $999,999 (June 15)
sorry but you guys are inventing these #'s out of the blue. I can open the paper or MLS or go outside and look around and SEE FOR MY OWN EYES that the prices have not gone down. Yes here and there you will find a 1-2% drop but those are people that are looking to get out ASAP for financial or personal reasons. That was happening even in the BOOM. I think you guys are just full of it.
"That is not even a 2% drop.
Actually, the "owner" is losing $30,000. Bring a check to the closing (if it sells today, which it won't).
And "appreciation" has been 15% for the last two years, add in inflation, and that's an easy 30% drop.
Nice, huh?
i was talking to a friend of mine that owns a house right now and appreciation in north jersey has been 6.4% year to date. that means that you need the house prices to drop 17% if you were hoping for a price drop back in January. If homes continue to appreciate until the end of the year you will need prices to drop 20% just to get the 10% off you were hoping for back in January.
SMART>.....
maybe if that bob guy logs on and spams a little "bbbbbbbbababababa burst!" you guys will wait another year before buying. lol
Looks like a starving realtor has joined in. Here, print this for your clients, tell them "Now is the time to buy" and prices will remain at 10X salaries indefinitely:
http://tinyurl.com/e4so5
Tell them 100+ years of history is irrelevent, we're in a "new paradigm" now, like PriceLine.com stock.
I'll be around on the courthouse steps with a check in 18 months.
yeah. sure. anyone who makes sense and opposes your view is a realtor.
whatever you say mr renter. did you pay your landlord today? oh no thats at the end of the month my bad.
Make that check out to "Thank you sir, you'll get my money next month too."
lol
"whatever you say mr renter. did you pay your landlord today? oh no thats at the end of the month my bad."
No, my interest from my proceeds of my house sale is paying my landlord. My interest will also pay next month and so on and so on.I guess I'm ok unless the bank goes under with its non-performing loans!! I rent a place to live, I don't rent mortgage $.
BC Bob
That is not even a 2% drop....
9/13/2006 04:53:36 PM
Repeat after me
take 10-15% right off the top and it's probably the only bid one of these dreamers has received.
desperation is growing.....
10-15% is NO deal by the way.
Actually very good chance you will be underwater from day one.
9/13/2006 05:00:56 PM
Anon,
Actually 2-3 years for me.
BC Bob
Glad someone had the guts to come forth and try to squelch the blah blah blah on this site. I have been reading the posts since March ’06 and checking out the market. The fact is prices have not dropped by more than 3%. Considering the fact that realtors take 6% commission from the seller’s price, it’s still a seller’s market. These bloggers are “crying wolf” in hopes to scare the market. If blogging was regulated, this site would be shut down.
hey anon 9/13/2006 04:51:56 PM, be nice buddy! we are hard working people and try to get bigger house because in-laws will come...
why did you against me? I was just trying to point out that a few houses we saw have reduced .....
We are waiting for the 30~40% off the oringinal list and buy 1.5M house at 999k and less within one year....
funning noboday uses "it’s still a seller’s market." for the current market except fool....
I have access to the MLS. I assure you that prices have gone down. And Grim posting the lowballs.. That is a small number compared to the relists.. I really wish I could post them on this site but Its not my account and I don't want to cause trouble for that person
Renee
"it’s still a seller’s market. These bloggers are “crying wolf” in hopes to scare the market"
Go present this to Bob Toll. He is clearly speaking about the highest level of speculative inventoey EVER. It may not be a buyer's market yet but to define this as a seller's market is absurd.
BC Bob
pay 12% can't even help to sell your house now, believe or not, IT IS BUYER'S MARKET NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"Make that check out to 'Thank you sir, you'll get my money next month too.' "
Who does the "owner" who lost $300,000 in the last 12 months make his check out to?
I don't pay any rent, since the interest on money NOT spent on a bubble-priced house covers things nicely.
These bloggers are “crying wolf” in hopes to scare the market. If blogging was regulated, this site would be shut down.
Why, exactly, would this site be shut down?
grim
grim said...
These bloggers are “crying wolf” in hopes to scare the market. If blogging was regulated, this site would be shut down.
Why, exactly, would this site be shut down?
grim
9/13/2006 05:37:21 PM
Yes, grim - you are the Enron of Bloggers!
Shame on you!
Get the guillotine!
As some of you predicted, the uglier things get out there, the greater the acrimony that will appear here.
Well forecasted.
More anecdotes:
shore real estate agent:
2005 Gross Income $280,000
YTD 2006 - less than $50,000
GRUMPING CRABBING HARASSING STARVING....it's going to get worse...
How do u Like it?
A good attitude adjustment is progressing within REland. It never fails. Bursting manias correct excessive Bloated egos all the time.
WATCH FOR IT....DEALT WITH IT IN EARLY 1990'S HOUSING BUST!
BABBABABABABABABA
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Some housing bubble reports from Wall Street and Washington. “CEO Robert Toll said the U.S. housing market got ahead of itself due to greed on the part of buyers and sellers, and that it now likely faces the highest level of speculative inventory ever. ‘Every day there’s an article about how lousy housing is now and how dumb you have to be to buy a house now,’ the CEO said Tuesday at the Credit Suisse Homebuilders Symposium.”
Read UP!
"whatever you say mr renter. did you pay your landlord today? oh no thats at the end of the month my bad.
Make that check out to "Thank you sir, you'll get my money next month too."
This fellow has alot to learn....alot to learn....
Yawn....who is next ?
SAS
" squelch the blah blah blah on this site."
I will give you that, some of that does go on around these parts.
"The fact is prices have not dropped by more than 3%."
What market are you checking? You sure its the real estate market in NJ? Put up your sources, and by all means, correct all of our blah, blah, blah...
"Considering the fact that realtors take 6% commission from the seller’s price"
Yup, we all know this? If you been reading since March, you should know that we all know this?
or did I miss that point?
"it’s still a seller’s market."
ok, I will give you that one too. Because a 10-20% in this overvalued market is nothing.
These bloggers are “crying wolf”
No, these bloggers see a train wreck coming and were smart enough to get off the tracks and watch the train go by and they can't believe others don't see the train wreck either.
"in hopes to scare the market."
This market is already scared
That is why people are shorting it nowadays.
"If blogging was regulated, this site would be shut down."
In China, it would. I give you that one too. But this ain't China...
Keep this in mind and you will go far:
-majority of people do the wrong think at the wrong time
-all bull markets die on euphoria
Yawn...who is next?
SAS
PS. Yup Grim and Shytown, as the market goes further into the rabbit hole, its going to get ugly.
People are going to get completely wiped out and not know what hit them and take it out on renters and people like us.
There are some fools out there buying homes. A friend, in Essex County, finally sold her house. It was on the market about 6 mos and she had already purchased another home. Some idiot paid her 310,000 for a 70 yr old home with 5 rooms and 1 bath. It Needs a LOT of work. I'm really glad for my friends sake that there are people out there who are not reading this blog or doing their homework.
dld
more ethical activity.
State takes action against mortgage firms, citing alleged abuses
BOSTON (AP) - State regulators ordered 11 firms - including four in Lawrence - to stop doing mortgage business after investigators found evidence that brokers steered prospective home buyers into mortgages they couldn't afford, and lenders looked the other way.
The Division of Banking yesterday also made emergency amendments to state regulations governing the industry, and sent a letter to brokers, lenders and financial institutions statewide threatening further action should more evidence of wrongdoing emerge.
The division said recent surprise investigations of lenders and brokers turned up evidence that some firms intentionally steered customers into home loans they couldn't afford, typically by inflating borrowers' actual income in application documents.
Also, some lenders who bundle mortgage loans and sell them as securities on so-called "secondary markets" failed to correct the income discrepancies before selling the bundled mortgages, Commissioner of Banks Steven Antonakes said.
"Some of the lenders have perhaps not been doing the level of due diligence they should be doing, and underwriting the loan," he said.
Many of the abuses involved customers with low- to moderate-incomes, often with limited ability to speak English, he said.
The division established a mortgage fraud hotline for consumers to call if they believe they have been victims of unfair mortgage practices: 800-495-2265, ext. 1501.
The 11 firms that were sent "cease-and-desist" letters included mortgage companies that were properly licensed, and parties acting as brokers even though they weren't licensed, the division said. The letters require the businesses to stop soliciting or accepting mortgage loan applications, and place any pending applications with a qualified broker or lender. Fees collected from consumers must be placed in escrow.
Two industry organizations, the Massachusetts Mortgage Association and Massachusetts Bankers Association, issued statements welcoming the enforcement actions and pledging to join state regulators at a statewide mortgage industry summit in the fall to discuss the issues.
Kevin Cuff, executive director of the Massachusetts Mortgage Bankers Association, said in an interview that his group "applauds the division for taking a proactive approach.
"We have sort of come upon a perfect storm in the industry, where interest rates have cooled and real estate prices are high," Cuff said. "In a competitive atmosphere, everyone is fighting for business, and it's appropriate to regulate the industry."
Below is a list of firms that were sent cease-and-desist letters:
* Diamond Mortgage, Lawrence
* R & R Financial, Lawrence
* Reyes Mortgage, Lawrence
* Synergy Mortgage Group, Lawrence
* ARBC Financial Mortgage Corp., Woburn
* Achieva Home Loans Inc., Worcester
* Equity Solutions Inc., Worcester
* Fintera Capital Corp., Natick
* National Lenders Inc., Lynn
* National Lending Corp., Houston
* The New York Mortgage Co., New York
print this story email this story
“‘Price reduced’ signs have become a more prominent feature of the Seattle landscape in recent weeks. A half-mile from the home Bitzer toured, the owners of a house that has been on the market for more than three months cut their asking price from $989,000 to $895,000, and agent Carole Alexander was telling all comers to make an offer.”
“Back in the Seward Park house where Bitzer espoused his bubble theory, agent Carolyn Mollot expressed her own caution about the market. ‘I told my own daughter to wait a little bit,’ she said.”
The smirks are being wiped off the faces of starving realtors.
I love it.
ATTITUDE ADJUSTMENT. eVERYONE HAS BEEN HUMBLED ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. IT'S TIME FOR THESE GREEDY GRUBBING STARVING REALTORS.
"Glad someone had the guts to come forth and try to squelch the blah blah blah on this site. I have been reading the posts since March ’06 and checking out the market. The fact is prices have not dropped by more than 3%. Considering the fact that realtors take 6% commission from the seller’s price, it’s still a seller’s market. These bloggers are “crying wolf” in hopes to scare the market. If blogging was regulated, this site would be shut down."
You're right. Call me please! I have a house that's been on the market for over a year that's for sale. It's a great investment. Real Estate only goes up!!!
You guys!!!
Say, who's been feeding the squirrels around here? They are getting aggressive. You have to use the right mix of low salt snacks and low tones.
I'm in a live and let live phase. Don't know how long it will last, but it's pretty nice.
Human nature is very interesting to watch. Why do folks come to a bubble blog, make a quick jab, and then get shocked when parried?
But this one was pretty funny, "If blogging was regulated.." I'm ending it with, "we'd all be speakin Chinese."
Pat
“A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve.
Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt. “To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors,” he asked. According to his central analysis, “the US government is, indeed,bankrupt, insofar as it will be unable to pay its creditors, who, in this context, are current and future generations to whom it has explicitly or implicitly promised future net payments of various kinds’’. END.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hommelberg
/sep132006.html
Does anyone else stop and wonder about the following statistic:
A few weeks ago, we were scratching our heads about Edison making like top 30 best places to live.
NAR stats for second quarter put Edison as the only NJ town in the hole YOY.:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/15/real_estate/metro_prices_table/index.htm
Maybe getting named best place is like the kiss of death.
Patt
Pat
"No one fancies moving out of their own house and renting an
apartment."
Shailesh,
You're right. However, I rushed out while the herd said I was nuts.
BC Bob
My wife and I have spent the past six months going to open houses in Ridgewood, Upper Saddle River, and Mahwah. We've become more and more frustrated as sellers seem to be pricing homes based on 2004 demand. At what point will sellers realize the longer they wait the more they will lose? We're specifically interested in the Anona Park area of Upper Saddle River. There are three homes available that range in px from 845k to 1,350mm. Each house is set on an acre or more of land but the houses are old and need work. What should we do? Do we lowball? If so by how much? In my opinion the house for 1,350k is not worth more than 900k....IT WAS BOUGHT IN 2002 FOR 980K AND ALL THEY DID WAS PUT IN A KITCHEN!!! WHERE DO THEY COME UP WITH A 35% INCREASE IN MARKET VALUE?
We've also looked at the Enclave at Meadowlake in Mahwah.....Please tell me what type of developer purchases a 15 acre lot adjacent to 287 and proceeds to market homes ranging from 1.4 to 1.9mm?? You can literally hear the traffic going by 24/7!!! Who would buy a house for that much to listen to traffic!! You're in Mahwah not Manhattan! Can it be that Bergen isn't the place to live anymore? Or should we just wait? If so how long to do we wait? Whats a reasonable offer to make on homes in USR? Please help!!
Frustrated but patient
anon @ 5:20
Glad someone had the guts to come forth..
I'm glad you found the guts to speak out ....hehehe
All you now need is some attitude fix up. When is your ARM resetting?
Prices are clearly coming down.
I just bought a house in a quintessential wall street town. in Westchester county. Original asking was 699K and we got the house for 640K, probably still paid too much but our personal situation made it worthwhile to buy.
Frustrated in Bergen, print out this chart:
http://tinyurl.com/e4so5
Print it out and take a look. Show your wife, look at it together for a few minutes.
Then look at the top of that 100-year peak and say "I'm going to spend close to $1M at that 100-year peak."
Then come to your senses, take the wife out to dinner, stop attending open houses, and see what 2007, or 2008 looks like.
Can't wait that long for extra space? Bite the bullet and rent a house.
frustrated:
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/apa/194364834.html
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/apa/202002212.html
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/apa/204834127.html
go with your gut and good luck
Actually, a site like this for people posting honest and helpful information and opinions would not be shut down even in China.
"I just bought a house in a quintessential wall street town. in Westchester county. Original asking was 699K and we got the house for 640K"
Wall Street towns are dropping prices??? Oh my!!!!!
BC Bob
Post a Comment
<< Home