Monday, October 10, 2005

Big Day on the MLS

Particularly active day on the MLS (and the day isn't even over yet). I thought it would be helpful to share with readers that were looking for some more information on listing/seller activity as of late.

New Listings 152
Back on Market 13
Sold 58

More than 100 listings added to the total today, a pretty significant number when you realize its about 0.8% increase in a day. The sales number is pretty telling as well. No doubt inventory is rising when listings are increasing at about double the rate of sales.

Price Changes 145

3 Increases, 4 Corrections, 138 Price Reductions. Compare this with 4-5 months ago when there were very few Price Reductions (and the price change sheet was made up mostly of increases).

For the times they are a-changin'

Caveat Emptor,
-grim

23 Comments:

Blogger Grim Ghost said...

Grim --

Where are you getting information on price reductions/changes etc ?

Thanks

10/10/2005 08:22:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

I have friends who are agents in the area, they provide me most of the non-public data I post.

-grim

10/10/2005 08:36:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

In fact, I feel so strongly about having my own access to data that I was going to incorporate my own RE company, get licensed, and pay whatever necessary fees just to have my own direct access to the services.

grim

10/10/2005 08:40:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

price reductions are almost commonplace for all but the most desirous properties in unshakeable neighborhoods (think Summit). inventory is building up fast. i've also noticed quite a number of withdrawals. i have to believe a good part of these are seller denial deciding to wait until the peak spring selling season to get the price they think they deserve.

not because i want it, but i believe this spring season will be a huge disappointment. inventory will grow way quicker than sales. in fact, i think the disparity will be wider than anyone is anticipating, particularly if we have a cruel winter and the cost of goods starts going up from producer price passthroughs.

10/10/2005 09:17:00 PM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

That's what I noticed yesterday. Some increase in inventory where I live and price reduction of $100K on some houses.

I was wondering whether NJMLS was waiting until yesterday to make all the changes for the entire week? or does NJMLS make updates daily?

I wonder how long it will take before all across the board 20% reduction on prices?

I was looking at Palisades Park MLS and noticed that many houses were on sale and these same houses were also for rent. Many of these houses (duplex houses)were going for $600K-$800K (not for the both houses but single unit) and the rents were between $2000-$3000/month.

Can you imagine renting $800K house for $3000 a month? The rent simply does not cover the mortgage, let alone the property tax.

10/11/2005 06:19:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

just got the MLS listings today for some towns (Westifeld, Summit, South Orange, Maplewood, Millburn/Short Hills, Monclair). I watch the 'better towns' in and around Essex County to see the inventory and prices. Monday is always the biggest listing day since it's the beginning of the week. 22 listings, 13 new, 9 reductions. a number of first time reductions are included where the buyers are reducing a whopping $10k off $650k homes.

sellers just don't get it. the market has turned and $10k isn't going to move your overpriced house. there's no way i'd encourage anyone to buy right now unless they can get some sucker to overpay for their existing property to move the monies to another

10/11/2005 07:50:00 AM  
Blogger Richie said...

I wonder how many homes were pulled off the market after they flooded. I live in the Pequannock area, and there were MANY homes listed that are in the flooding areas. I know that some of those areas took a hit this past weekend. Same goes for Wayne.

There's an area in Wayne (off Newark Pompton Turnpike) that floods EVERY year. I recently read that the government was offering to buy those homes from the owners so they can move to a non-flooding area; although most of those owners were not interested. It's a shame; they could have gotten top dollar. Many of them are trying to sell their homes right now; there's about 3-4 signs pointing in the flood area with homes "For Sale By Owner". This weekend definitely rained down on their plans..

Richie

10/11/2005 08:08:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Inventories are piling up.Sellers are in denial as they missed the peak. It's over accept it. Instead of making 100% on your home now maybe just 50%.
Now many sellers will just track it lower as buyers refuse to pay obscene prices and bid a lot less.
10% reductions aren't going to cut it.

20%+ reductions coming in next 6 months. then who knows

10/11/2005 09:04:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

i believe 20% reductions are a minimum to bring in enough buyers to eat up most but not all of the growing inventory. houses in the nice areas will continue to go fast due to wall street bonus time. the wall streeters really make it difficult to purchase a home in a nicer town since they routintely get $100k bonuses annually.

10/11/2005 09:33:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

138 price reductions.
$5000 price reduction on an $799k house.
Laughable.

10/11/2005 10:07:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Richie Said: "I live in the Pequannock area, and there were MANY homes listed that are in the flooding areas."

I lived in Lincoln Park and was on the Fire Department for a number of years. In the home buying frenzy of the last few years, many out-of-towners saw these homes as a steal because they are priced below what a comparable non-flooding house would cost. They are told the homes are subject to flooding, but don't really "get it" until we pull up to their front door in a boat.

10/11/2005 12:24:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...

On the other hand, I just heard that a house in Berkeley Heights NJ went under contract. The house was listed for 1.04 M, reduced to 949K and had been on the market 2-2.5 months. I know that location -- its nice and Berkeley Heights is a great town. But 920K or so for a 4 bedroom 10 year old house ?

I think the supply of inventory is the deciding factor. In cookie cutter subdivisions or townhouse/condos, a few on sale puts a real pressure on the others. I think the areas where there have been a lot of condos built may see some pricing pressure.

Some localities seem dead, others are still open at the proper (still too high) price point.

10/11/2005 12:48:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

So much for yesterday being a standout day.. Today's numbers are very similar. Sellers seem to be getting the message. The race to the bottom has begun.

-grim

10/11/2005 04:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The insanity is ending.

hang in there. A lot of sleepness nights going forward for many many folks. Watch for lights on late night. Or on recycling collection day, ook for the bottles and cans to start piling up.

10/11/2005 06:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Found this board.
Looking at houses a few weeks ago with my realtor in a few No jersey towns. The realtor told me prices not go down but at worse would stay flat.
After reading this board and a few others it sems to me that this realtor only has her best intrest in mind.

10/11/2005 08:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I just got my real estate license only so I could get the MLS for a front row seat to the coming crash. Imagine my horror when they told me I had to join the NAR to get the MLS-I can't wait till they lose the law suit the justice dept. has against them.

10/11/2005 08:39:00 PM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

I was driving around my town this afternoon. I saw a 150x100 lot with excavated land. So I called the listed agent asking for a price of this new unbuilt "house".

She told me that it is listed at $1.925M. And here's the kicker. She said I should buy it now since when it's done next April or May, it will go for $2.2-$2.4M.

I started laughing and told her that I will call her back next April.

It's the R.E. agents who helped inflated the prices and they still tell us that the price will keep going up.

I surely will call her next April, ask for a face-to-face meeting and laugh at her face. Then I will offer $1M for the house.

10/11/2005 09:56:00 PM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

Anonymous,

what northern NJ towns were you looking at?

10/11/2005 09:57:00 PM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

"U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers acknowledged three weeks ago that Hurricane Katrina had added to "already considerable" inflation pressures and said more interest-rate increases would be needed in light of the growing inflation threat."

I guess the interest hike is inevitable. Ergo, the day of housing bubble popping will come sooner than expected but not as soon as we hoped for.

Funny thing is that with the interest rate going up soon, the normal behavior of Gold is to going down. But Gold price keeps going up and up.

That tells me one thing. People are very afraid of our economic outlook.

If you are a flipper and still have investment properties or bought house(s) with low down payment and IO payment & ARM, be afraid, be very afraid.

10/12/2005 07:56:00 AM  
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