Monday, November 07, 2005

Burst Begins in Massachusetts

It's becoming more and more evident that Massachusetts will go down in history as being the first bubble area to pop. There has been a some significant negative media coverage as well as anecdotal evidence that makes Mass. look like the place the pin pricked first.

Massachusetts Real Estate Market Cooling Down
Figures show tired housing market
Boston area real estate market cools for first time in a decade
Boom or bust, network tracks Boston's real estate
Buyers get choosy...when the selling gets tough

And here is the most compelling info yet..

Will Boston Lead the Housing Bust?

From the Angry Bear blog: http://angrybear.blogspot.com

The Angry Bear blog posted up some interesting graphs that show that the declines in the Boston Area have often preceeded larger scope declines. Judging from the sheer number of news stories I've been seeing, I don't doubt that Boston will once again lead the decline.

It seems that Massachussets is showing the first Year-Over-Year (YOY) decline, down 5.2% from a year ago. This is rather significant, as one of the biggest Realtor(tm) tools is to quote YOY appreciation to hide short-term decreases in price. In the next few months we'll hear nothing buy YOY appreciation in Northern NJ, until that figure goes negative. We'll likely see the Realtors come up with a new statistical measure, something like a 3-Year or 5-Year average apprecation. It's only a matter of time until we start seeing YOY declines in Northern NJ, when we do, watch out, homeowners will be rushing for the exits and new buyers will all but disappear.

Caveat Emptor,
Grim

3 Comments:

Blogger Richie said...

Who is this guy kidding?

''My recommendation is to buy now. Next year you have no idea what's going happen," Pucillo said. ''What goes down, must go up -- you know it's going to happen, so buy now while you can."

The saying is what goes UP must come DOWN.

Right now, I see rates going UP and prices going DOWN.

-Richie

11/07/2005 01:17:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

If history repeats itself, and it usually does, I'm convinced the RE industry will spin this thing all the way to the bottom. Check out this page called "Pompous Prognosticators", with quotes on the stock market from 1927-1933 (crash & great depression). Replace "stocks" with "homes" and the similarities are frightening. A year from now the RE industry will tell us how home prices have hit rock-bottom and we are back on track for solid gains.

http://tinyurl.com/wfxu

11/07/2005 03:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Friggen Pain!

Expose the corrupt real estate industry. They do not care at all about the buyers. Buyers are abused and manipulated.

lawsuits going to be flying in next few years.

11/07/2005 08:31:00 PM  

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