But.. But.. Prices Always Go Up.. Don't They?
I've waited a long time to see this in print. I even doubted the fact that the media would ever acknowledge the fact, but they did. This piece ran in the Voice of San Diego two days ago on Dec 21st.
Supply Surplus Symptoms
This increase in inventory, coupled with the drop in home sales, means sellers have had to wait longer to sell their properties, and may have to settle for profits that are substantially less than they expected. Some sellers -- albeit a small minority -- have even begun to sustain losses on their property.
Sustain losses on property? The unthinkable? But prices never go down? Right? Has anyone else seen the media reports that are already reporting a soft landing? Amazing, the market hasn't even begun to collapse on itself yet, but we've already landed? Already landed? I'll leave you with a quote..
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929
Chart of Pompous Prognosticators
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
Supply Surplus Symptoms
This increase in inventory, coupled with the drop in home sales, means sellers have had to wait longer to sell their properties, and may have to settle for profits that are substantially less than they expected. Some sellers -- albeit a small minority -- have even begun to sustain losses on their property.
Sustain losses on property? The unthinkable? But prices never go down? Right? Has anyone else seen the media reports that are already reporting a soft landing? Amazing, the market hasn't even begun to collapse on itself yet, but we've already landed? Already landed? I'll leave you with a quote..
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929
Chart of Pompous Prognosticators
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
7 Comments:
In my best Jack Nicholson voice: What'll they see the "For Sale" onslaught in the spring time. hehehehe....
Weeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051223/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy
New Home Sales Plummet in November
Sales of new homes plunged in November by the largest amount in nearly 12 years, providing the most dramatic evidence yet that the red hot housing market over the last five years is starting to cool down.
It is still a large volume of buyers. It just isnn't like it was last year, calculated risk shows it graphically and it looks like it is still higher than the past two years in YOY monthly volume.
The key is prices are going down and volumes are going up. The condo craze appears to be over. I am not sure of housing in all markets. In NNJ there is a shortage created by children averse planning boards and land use boards. Time will tell.
There was an article in the Star ledger yesterday showing population growth in NJ being anemic and the given reason was housing prices. Maybe it will be self correcting when nooone comes to NJ anymore.
The next bubble will be in inferior goods. Go long on beer and ramen noodles. (Not investment advice, only opinion).
grim
Posted up the article on the main page for all those looking for a link to the Ledger piece. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
jb
Another real estate myth. house prices "Always" go up.
HAHAHA yeah okay.
Little amnesia. remember quite clearly in early 1990's when they couldn't sell real esatte and everyone thought real estate was a "BAD" investment. Prices were down about 25% for houses and 50% condos. It's a much biggere bubble disaster now then today. Salaries were at least growing back then. Now NADA!
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