Saturday, January 28, 2006

Weekend Open Discussion

Open Discussion for this weekend.

Observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, Open House reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let's have them.

In particular, I'd like to put out a request for comments on the Hoboken and Jersey City markets. There have been many stories/rumors about certain message boards that cover that area. Lets have the dirt, inquiring minds want to know.

Have a nice weekend everyone!

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

24 Comments:

Blogger 42 said...

I was looking at some of the condos and apts in Paulus Hook and I guess these people haven't heard about a bubble because prices and rents are still laughably high. I could live in great parts of Manhattan for less that what these clowns with their "luxury" shitboxes want for rent. $2500 for a generic beige 1br? Are you insane?

1/28/2006 10:35:00 AM  
Blogger anecdotal said...

At this point, prices are as high as ever in Jersey City, though sales seem stagnant, and there are more condo projects just completed, in construction, or in the wings than you can shake a stick at downtown--the prime area of gentrification.

Last March, we looked at a brownstone in Bergen Lafayette, historically a very tough neighborhood in JC, close to Liberty State Park, a mile or so from downtown. Charming property, good condition, questionable area: it sold immediately for $329,000. It appeared on the market again in August, first on Craig's list, outrageously for $499,000, then shamelessly listed with the original agency for $ 480,000. But it didn't sell, and the price fell: $468,000, $420,000, $395,000.

An isolated incidence of insanity turned to panic, I think, but perhaps an indicative one.

Viva Grim!

1/28/2006 10:36:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A lively debate has ensued here

http://www.hobokenx.com/html/modules/newbb/viewtopic.php?topic_id=1417&forum=9

1/28/2006 11:01:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Last week I posted a comment about the Hoboken MLS displaying a total of 415 residential properties.

Today that number is 440.

As another point of reference, it was 296 in early October when I first started looking.

I should add the usual diclaimers that these figures also include some JC/UC properties but don't include FSBOs. Maybe they wash.

1/28/2006 11:32:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"There have been many stories/rumors about certain message boards that cover that area. Lets have the dirt, inquiring minds want to know."

Hell, I don't even know the rumors. So yeah, do tell.

1/28/2006 11:35:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

I read through some of that thread earlier this morning. Sorry, but I don't buy many of the arguments being used to justify further price increases..

grim

1/28/2006 11:57:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Even though there is so much media coverage now, about the bubble, prices are still sky high.

Many folks still believe prices will remain at these levels. If it truely is a bubble, what is preventing (or delaying) the pop.

1/28/2006 12:04:00 PM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

I love how realtors think wall st bonuses are gonna save them. It's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. how many wealthy bankers don't already own homes? how many of them are itching to buy at the peak? about half of my friends are bankers and not a single one of them is looking to buy

1/28/2006 12:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am curious about something. There was a new condo complex that went up in Rutherford directly across the street from the train station. It does not look like it filled up at all. The going rate on 800 sqr feet at that complex is $400,000. Which I believe is highway robbery. $500 a sqr foot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anyone know the deal on that complex?

1/28/2006 03:50:00 PM  
Blogger REwatch said...

skep-tic,
I agree- anyone who can actually pay $2MM for a home will be smart enough to look at the value fundamentals and RUN. Except of course for the poor guy who just bought a house across the street from me in Summit at 1,150,000. My house is in much better condition, larger yard and I bought three years ago at around $600K

I should feel great, but instead I simply feel sorry for someone who has bought in at that price. I won't even let our financial planner count the so called "bubble equity" in our personal balance sheet. It is bogus and I wouldn't count on selling my house for even $850K in a couple of years.

Why you say? I also know a lot of young traders that refuse to buy. Buyers are drying up and those of us who were ready to make a move up are sitting tight.

Upper end Summit is already showing slowdowns. Yes in a town where,"You'll never lose your money investing in real estate here." I wish my new neighbors had seen this blog....

1/28/2006 04:23:00 PM  
Blogger lisoosh said...

Is it just me or are there a whole load of open houses on Saturdays? I've only seen them on Sundays in my area up till now.

1/28/2006 07:17:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

I did notice a few open houses today. Very irregular, the norm around here is indeed Sunday.

No doubt taking advantage of the good weather..

grim

1/28/2006 08:05:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...

Open houses are probably because tomorrow is Superbowl Sunday.

1/28/2006 10:34:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

"Open houses are probably because tomorrow is Superbowl Sunday."

That's next week. But good it's a good point, you are going to lose next Sunday and people could be making up for that now. Also, the weather was perfect.

1/28/2006 10:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Original Message:

A lively debate has ensued here

http://www.hobokenx.com/html/modules/newbb/viewtopic.php?topic_id=1417&forum=9

My Message (dose of reality):

Having owned investment property in Weehaken since the early '90s--post the '89/'90 crash, I still receive the same $$$$ in rent now that I received in 1995. This has also been true for Montclair, but in that city, I collect the same $$$$ today that I collected in 1998. No increase in rents, but my taxes have increased considerably.

1/29/2006 07:58:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

For those in the know, this article is embarrassing. Almost as egregious in form as the genuflecting that occurred last year in the Bob Toll NYT Magazine piece.

It's makes you wonder whether there is a "fix" on, and how Toll could exert such influence and cause such intellectual dishonesty from what is considered one of the hallowed halls of the media. It's literally shocking. I thought they fired Jayson Blair :p

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/29/realestate/29njzo.html?_r=1&emc=eta1

1/29/2006 09:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That particular NYT reporter has been writing what are essentially NNJ developer advertisements for years. There is some truth to her notion that Hoboken's demographics are changing, but to use that Toll Brother's development as a premise is quite shameless.

1/29/2006 11:33:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Open houses are probably because tomorrow is Superbowl TV buying Sunday."

FIXED.

1/29/2006 11:42:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

"Open houses are probably because tomorrow is Superbowl TV buying Sunday."

LOL. My wife said no new TV before I even asked.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that the week after Superbowl Sunday starts the unofficial “Spring Season” for real estate, when many people traditionally begin listing their homes. The extra open houses this week could be a last ditch attempt to sell before more inventory is piled on the market.

1/29/2006 12:20:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

The Superbowl is the kickoff of the spring season here.. No pun intended, of course.

Good thing there is no 'false start' in real estate, a large number of sellers jumped the gun this year..

grim

1/29/2006 02:21:00 PM  
Blogger landgrab said...

Guess: When we're into March and April and places aren't moving, prices will come down.

1/29/2006 02:34:00 PM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

Grim,

I have a logistical problem with the assertion that Wall street finalcial wizards will receive record bonuses and that, therefore, will propel the housing market forward. Forget objetive data for a moment. Logically, these people must be making some big leaps of faith. Big bonuses, do not directly translate to spending it on a new piece of real estate. A recipient of such a bonus could spend it any number of things, new housing being one of them. But also paying off extensive credit card debt; paying off existing mortagage; buying a fancy car; taking a fabulous vacation; ad nausium. I think that it is a big leap to say that real estate prices will increase because of Wall street bonuses. Wall street financial experts are likely to spend it on financially sound investments which are unlikely to include the real estate market at this time.

Oh Well. The real estate industry has to spin things their way (not to mention current homeowners). Thanks to your blog, those of us who don't have infinite funds to our names will be OK.

1/29/2006 11:43:00 PM  
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4/18/2006 11:39:00 PM  
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