Wednesday, February 08, 2006

Northern New Jersey Weekly Inventory Update

The North NJ weekly residential inventory update is back on track. Inventory stats will be posted every week, prior to noon on Wednesday. The numbers will include all 3 of the Northern NJ MLS systems, GSMLS, NJMLS, and the Hudson MLS. If someone would like to provide me with numbers from the FSBO systems, I'll gladly include them as well. These numbers do not include multifamily homes, only SFH, Condos and Coops. Realize that this does make an impact in certain areas of North Jersey with high densities of multifamily (Hudson, Passaic, etc).

GSMLS
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)
09/01/2005 - 11405
01/01/2006 - 11010
02/08/2006 - 12233

(Updates should be back on schedule now)

NJMLS
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Huson, Passaic Counties)
09/01/2005 - 4981
02/01/2006 - 5769
02/08/2006 - 5868

MLSGuide
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)
02/01/2006 - 1609
02/08/2006 - 1990

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

32 Comments:

Blogger grim said...

Housing prices expected to drop

BOSTON -- Housing prices are projected to drop 5 percent during each of the first two quarters of this year and Bay State residents remain highly concerned over the cost of housing, market analysts said yesterday.

A "sharp" drop in Massachusetts housing prices has begun, said Alan Clayton-Matthews, a professor at the McCormack Graduate School of Policy Studies at UMass.

"The same economic forces that led to very high and fast-growing prices here in the past are now working in reverse," he said. "Housing prices are almost certainly going to decline in the near future."


grim

2/08/2006 11:07:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Mortgage applications fall last week: MBA

Mortgage applications fell for a second consecutive week, led by a decline in home purchase loans, as interest rates hit their highest levels since early December, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week ended February 3 decreased 1.2 percent to 619.3 from the previous week's 626.8.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase mortgage index fell 2.4 percent to 425.1 from the previous week's 435.7. The index is considered a timely gauge on U.S. home sales.


grim

2/08/2006 11:11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

oh no. Inventory is rapidly climbing.
Now the market is more normal.
I agree the markets will be normal in about a year when prices drop about 30%.

2/08/2006 11:12:00 AM  
Blogger POIGNANT said...

Great site Grim...
I just read this article in the Money Mag site......

http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/08
/real_estate/money_zillow/index.htm

2/08/2006 11:17:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

I don't feel you can "say goodbye to appraisers". That is just nonsense. Looking back at past sales records and comps is only a small part of the appraisal process.

However, over the past few years, appraisers were nothing but monkeys doling out high appraisals to ensure that the mortgage went through without a hitch. The reasoning didn't matter, just find a house on the block that sold high, tack on a few percent for good measure, and the appraisal is done.

Poor Zillow, the site was dead this morning mere seconds after they announced the launch. Sign of things to come if you ask me.

Business model? Try to attract a bunch of homeowners. Estimate their home high. Slap 100 refinance advertisement links in their face. Collect commission from partners post refi.

grim

2/08/2006 11:30:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Grim,

Have you been tracking foreclosures in NNJ. I noticed a pattern in the data. The further out you are from the urban core the higher the percentage of households getting notices.

Is it because that is where most of the new buyers are or is it because of the long commutes and fuel costs?

Would it be something to track?

2/08/2006 11:59:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Court: Homeowners associations must bow to state free speech law

TRENTON, N.J. (AP) -- A state appeals court panel ruled Tuesday that homeowners associations must recognize residents' rights to freedom of speech under the New Jersey Constitution.

The unanimous ruling by a three-judge panel stemmed from a case brought by residents of the private Twin Rivers community in East Windsor, who had sued their homeowners association to be able to put political signs on their front lawns, among other things.

"For the first time anywhere in the United States, an appellate court has ruled that such private communities are `constitutional actors' and must therefore respect their members' freedom of speech," said Frank Askin, a Rutgers Law School professor and lead counsel for the Committee for a Better Twin Rivers.


Ever wonder certain developments don't seem to have many homes for sale while other areas are overflowing with signs? Many HOA's prohibit homeowners from posting these signs.

Big win for the homeowners.. Just in time too.

grim

2/08/2006 12:41:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Is it because that is where most of the new buyers are or is it because of the long commutes and fuel costs?

Nationwide, the pattern seems to be the less hot the market, the more foreclosures. While it seems counterintuitive (at leas to me), these areas had the same risky financing options, without the rapid appreciation to mitigate the risk. Hot markets provide more of an opportunity to get out of trouble by selling or refinancing. As you move away from urban centers and into cooler markets, the opportunities to get yourself out of trouble are fewer. I think as the hot markets begin to cool off, the patter of foreclosures will begin to move toward the urban centers.

2/08/2006 12:42:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

2/08/2006 01:16:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

RentinginNJ said...

"Nationwide, the pattern seems to be the less hot the market, the more foreclosures. While it seems counterintuitive (at leas to me), these areas had the same risky financing options, without the rapid appreciation to mitigate the risk."

I'm sorry I should have been clearer. I meant in NNJ that seems to be the pattern. I was debating doing a percent of population analysis with NNJ counties and maybe mapping it.
the numbers I saw this morning for notices in each county went something like this.
550 Warren out of 42k Households,
870 Sussex out of 54k households,
570 Morris out of 175k Households,
600 Somerset out of 114K Households,
Bergen 1000 out of 337K Households.

Bergen has over 10 times the population of Warren and almost the same with Sussex. So my explanations would be Newbies with difficult loan payments or they are getting pinched with higher costs associated with living and commuting.

I agree with the part about non-bubble areas Dallas, TX is cratering among other places.
As for the moving toward urban areas I think in NNJ that may be the pattern. Monroe County PA is perpetually in a state of heavy foreclosure.

I saw in this blog a week or so ago something about 1 out of every 100 houses in NJ in some stage of fore closure. In Warren and Sussex I see that number but not the other inner counties.

I think I will track these numbers monthly.

2/08/2006 01:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Metro and Renting

I think that the actuals for homes farther may be impacted on many factors.

A better measure would be those areas that people pay more for like a Summit, Chatham, etc.

These areas were to be hot and always have good schools and the train. If these areas start getting hit with foreclosures then you know things are changing.

As for further out as the jobs dry up that may be the case, but I see that the real foreclosures are the folks that should of bought a $600K home in Denville and bought the $900K home, on 1/3 acre in Chatham. They cut it only because of low interest but with the resets in 2006 , watch out.

Look, IMHO, I believe that we will see a final push for people to refi with the mortgage companies pushing out to meet this quarter before the fed increase in MAR 06. Then they will hope for bonuses, decreased energy costs, and the promise of big gains by buying on the dip to bring back in people. But it will be short lived.

Now there is a greater issue. If there is fear of the bubble bust then overseas money taking long term debt will dry up , sending the 10 year note up. If it hits 8 % then you will see rates hit 8%, vs the 4% folks are paying now. Since the loans are new there is allot of interest. In short it just gets worse.

The increase in rates pushes down the sales prices of the houses that means they will panic to get out, at least the flippers.

Wow, this is bad


CDF

2/08/2006 03:11:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

10Y yield sitting up at around 4.59 this afternoon. Big day tomorrow with the new 30y auction.

grim

2/08/2006 03:42:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Grim:

It's been in the background keeping my attention all day.

chicago

2/08/2006 03:50:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Does anyone know a site where #s of notices of default are posted by municipality? (or for that matter other data) The one I looked at said municipality but when I looked at it by zip it mixed up the towns so I don't know which is the better measure.

Thanks!

2/08/2006 03:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To Metroplexual at 3:59 p.m.

Try www.publicnoticeads.com. I don't know how reliable this site is but it maybe worth a try

2/08/2006 04:25:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Rates resume their march upwards..

Weekly Home Mortgage Rates

2/08/2006 04:44:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

I was using realtrac. The county info looks solid.

2/08/2006 05:19:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Interesting news about Greenspan, only a few days out of office and he's already making waves..

Greenspan speech affects dollar, rate futures

According to one source who saw a summary of the Lehman Brothers event, Greenspan suggested that the low level of long-term bond yields may mean official interest rates would have to go higher than they otherwise would to slow the economy.

2/08/2006 05:29:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Ok folks,
My theory holds up unless you have an older large (dying)city in your county. I hope the formatting holds if not I will have to start a blog

County #Households/HH-Fc %of CTY
Bergen 337300-1389 0.41%
Essex 288100-4306 1.49%
Hudson 241800-1047 0.43%
Hunterdon 45800-407 0.89%
Middlesex 279600-2249 0.80%
Monmouth 233700-2213 0.95%
Morris 175300-667 0.38%
Passaic 168300-1508 0.90%
Somerset 114800-989 0.86%
Sussex 54800-853 1.56%
Union 188800-2784 1.47%
Warren 41900-528 1.26%

2/08/2006 06:52:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Grim:

did you catch this?

WSJ subscription needed

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113932670993367259.html?mod=todays_us_personal_journal

2/08/2006 08:51:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

the NJ numbers come from Otteau according to the footnote

2/08/2006 08:57:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Not a subscriber, any way you can cut and paste the article in?

jb

2/08/2006 11:04:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Grim,

Check your email for the WSJ article.

Also, any predictions on demand for the 30yr bond tomorrow? What are the implications for the 10 yr note?

2/08/2006 11:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is some serious nutiness going on in Rutherford New Jersey. They have two somewhat brand new complexes with Condos, let me repeat that CONDOS going in excess of $900,000.

They seem to be marketing them as "Tired of paying NYC prices?". Well, yeah I am tired of paying NYC prices, ESPECIALLY IN NEW JERSEY.

Why buy those overpriced condos? The one next to the train station has a multi-lvel parking lot, not even a carport or garage under your own unit! And they want 450+ for 800 sqr feet!!!

I'd holdout for secaucus, they are building hundreds of units next to the train station over there, I wonder if they will be smoking crack too when they put them on the market.

2/09/2006 04:11:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

rentinginnj,

No idea what will happen to the treasury market tomorrow, but I'll wager a guess over the long term.

Demand for longer dated treasuries is high right now, thus prices high, and yields low.

The long bond gives an alternative to the 10y for those seeking long dated treasuries, thus some of the demand currently vying for the 10y shifts to the 30y. Demand falls on the 10y and yield increases?

Was this a part of Greenspan's conundrum? Potentially.

Don't take my word for it though, look to the professionals for insight.

grim

2/09/2006 07:05:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Grim:

As you have probably seen elsewhere, it appears as if Greenspan may be more activist as a public speaker than he ever was as chairman of the Fed.

Ultimately, there is so much international money is UST, that we should only hope that Europe and Japan finally kick-start in gear. Once the Eurozone and Bank of Japan finally have the leeway to raise their own rates will we be able to siphon some of this parked money out of the system.

2/09/2006 10:18:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds Advance After $14 Billion Auction

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 30-year Treasuries gained after a $14 billion government auction of 30-year bonds, the first sale of that maturity since 2001, sold at a lower yield than forecast.

[edit]

Speculation the Fed will raise interest rates at least twice more helped push yields on two-year Treasuries about 11 basis points higher than those on 10-year notes.

``If inflation or inflation expectations were to rise persistently, then policy clearly would have to be tightened further,'' meaning rates would have to rise, Moskow said in the text of a speech to the Risk Management Association of Chicago.

Interest-rate futures show traders are pricing in a 94 percent chance the Fed will raise the target rate to 4.75 percent at its next meeting on March 28, up from 76 percent two weeks ago. The odds of another quarter-point increase at the May 10 meeting rose to 56 percent, from zero percent last month.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aPgJyq5BMTnI&refer=us#

2/09/2006 02:41:00 PM  
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