Northern New Jersey Weekly Inventory Update
The North NJ weekly residential inventory update is back on track. Inventory stats will be posted every week, prior to noon on Wednesday. The numbers will include all 3 of the Northern NJ MLS systems, GSMLS, NJMLS, and the Hudson MLS. If someone would like to provide me with numbers from the FSBO systems, I'll gladly include them as well. These numbers do not include multifamily homes, only SFH, Condos and Coops. Realize that this does make an impact in certain areas of North Jersey with high densities of multifamily (Hudson, Passaic, etc).
GSMLS
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)
09/01/2005 - 11405
01/01/2006 - 11010
02/08/2006 - 12233
(Updates should be back on schedule now)
NJMLS
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Huson, Passaic Counties)
09/01/2005 - 4981
02/01/2006 - 5769
02/08/2006 - 5868
MLSGuide
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)
02/01/2006 - 1609
02/08/2006 - 1990
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
GSMLS
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)
09/01/2005 - 11405
01/01/2006 - 11010
02/08/2006 - 12233
(Updates should be back on schedule now)
NJMLS
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Huson, Passaic Counties)
09/01/2005 - 4981
02/01/2006 - 5769
02/08/2006 - 5868
MLSGuide
Single Family, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)
02/01/2006 - 1609
02/08/2006 - 1990
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
26 Comments:
Housing prices expected to drop
BOSTON -- Housing prices are projected to drop 5 percent during each of the first two quarters of this year and Bay State residents remain highly concerned over the cost of housing, market analysts said yesterday.
A "sharp" drop in Massachusetts housing prices has begun, said Alan Clayton-Matthews, a professor at the McCormack Graduate School of Policy Studies at UMass.
"The same economic forces that led to very high and fast-growing prices here in the past are now working in reverse," he said. "Housing prices are almost certainly going to decline in the near future."
grim
Mortgage applications fall last week: MBA
Mortgage applications fell for a second consecutive week, led by a decline in home purchase loans, as interest rates hit their highest levels since early December, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week ended February 3 decreased 1.2 percent to 619.3 from the previous week's 626.8.
The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase mortgage index fell 2.4 percent to 425.1 from the previous week's 435.7. The index is considered a timely gauge on U.S. home sales.
grim
oh no. Inventory is rapidly climbing.
Now the market is more normal.
I agree the markets will be normal in about a year when prices drop about 30%.
I don't feel you can "say goodbye to appraisers". That is just nonsense. Looking back at past sales records and comps is only a small part of the appraisal process.
However, over the past few years, appraisers were nothing but monkeys doling out high appraisals to ensure that the mortgage went through without a hitch. The reasoning didn't matter, just find a house on the block that sold high, tack on a few percent for good measure, and the appraisal is done.
Poor Zillow, the site was dead this morning mere seconds after they announced the launch. Sign of things to come if you ask me.
Business model? Try to attract a bunch of homeowners. Estimate their home high. Slap 100 refinance advertisement links in their face. Collect commission from partners post refi.
grim
Grim,
Have you been tracking foreclosures in NNJ. I noticed a pattern in the data. The further out you are from the urban core the higher the percentage of households getting notices.
Is it because that is where most of the new buyers are or is it because of the long commutes and fuel costs?
Would it be something to track?
Court: Homeowners associations must bow to state free speech law
TRENTON, N.J. (AP) -- A state appeals court panel ruled Tuesday that homeowners associations must recognize residents' rights to freedom of speech under the New Jersey Constitution.
The unanimous ruling by a three-judge panel stemmed from a case brought by residents of the private Twin Rivers community in East Windsor, who had sued their homeowners association to be able to put political signs on their front lawns, among other things.
"For the first time anywhere in the United States, an appellate court has ruled that such private communities are `constitutional actors' and must therefore respect their members' freedom of speech," said Frank Askin, a Rutgers Law School professor and lead counsel for the Committee for a Better Twin Rivers.
Ever wonder certain developments don't seem to have many homes for sale while other areas are overflowing with signs? Many HOA's prohibit homeowners from posting these signs.
Big win for the homeowners.. Just in time too.
grim
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
RentinginNJ said...
"Nationwide, the pattern seems to be the less hot the market, the more foreclosures. While it seems counterintuitive (at leas to me), these areas had the same risky financing options, without the rapid appreciation to mitigate the risk."
I'm sorry I should have been clearer. I meant in NNJ that seems to be the pattern. I was debating doing a percent of population analysis with NNJ counties and maybe mapping it.
the numbers I saw this morning for notices in each county went something like this.
550 Warren out of 42k Households,
870 Sussex out of 54k households,
570 Morris out of 175k Households,
600 Somerset out of 114K Households,
Bergen 1000 out of 337K Households.
Bergen has over 10 times the population of Warren and almost the same with Sussex. So my explanations would be Newbies with difficult loan payments or they are getting pinched with higher costs associated with living and commuting.
I agree with the part about non-bubble areas Dallas, TX is cratering among other places.
As for the moving toward urban areas I think in NNJ that may be the pattern. Monroe County PA is perpetually in a state of heavy foreclosure.
I saw in this blog a week or so ago something about 1 out of every 100 houses in NJ in some stage of fore closure. In Warren and Sussex I see that number but not the other inner counties.
I think I will track these numbers monthly.
Metro and Renting
I think that the actuals for homes farther may be impacted on many factors.
A better measure would be those areas that people pay more for like a Summit, Chatham, etc.
These areas were to be hot and always have good schools and the train. If these areas start getting hit with foreclosures then you know things are changing.
As for further out as the jobs dry up that may be the case, but I see that the real foreclosures are the folks that should of bought a $600K home in Denville and bought the $900K home, on 1/3 acre in Chatham. They cut it only because of low interest but with the resets in 2006 , watch out.
Look, IMHO, I believe that we will see a final push for people to refi with the mortgage companies pushing out to meet this quarter before the fed increase in MAR 06. Then they will hope for bonuses, decreased energy costs, and the promise of big gains by buying on the dip to bring back in people. But it will be short lived.
Now there is a greater issue. If there is fear of the bubble bust then overseas money taking long term debt will dry up , sending the 10 year note up. If it hits 8 % then you will see rates hit 8%, vs the 4% folks are paying now. Since the loans are new there is allot of interest. In short it just gets worse.
The increase in rates pushes down the sales prices of the houses that means they will panic to get out, at least the flippers.
Wow, this is bad
CDF
10Y yield sitting up at around 4.59 this afternoon. Big day tomorrow with the new 30y auction.
grim
Grim:
It's been in the background keeping my attention all day.
chicago
Does anyone know a site where #s of notices of default are posted by municipality? (or for that matter other data) The one I looked at said municipality but when I looked at it by zip it mixed up the towns so I don't know which is the better measure.
Thanks!
To Metroplexual at 3:59 p.m.
Try www.publicnoticeads.com. I don't know how reliable this site is but it maybe worth a try
Rates resume their march upwards..
Weekly Home Mortgage Rates
I was using realtrac. The county info looks solid.
Interesting news about Greenspan, only a few days out of office and he's already making waves..
Greenspan speech affects dollar, rate futures
According to one source who saw a summary of the Lehman Brothers event, Greenspan suggested that the low level of long-term bond yields may mean official interest rates would have to go higher than they otherwise would to slow the economy.
Ok folks,
My theory holds up unless you have an older large (dying)city in your county. I hope the formatting holds if not I will have to start a blog
County #Households/HH-Fc %of CTY
Bergen 337300-1389 0.41%
Essex 288100-4306 1.49%
Hudson 241800-1047 0.43%
Hunterdon 45800-407 0.89%
Middlesex 279600-2249 0.80%
Monmouth 233700-2213 0.95%
Morris 175300-667 0.38%
Passaic 168300-1508 0.90%
Somerset 114800-989 0.86%
Sussex 54800-853 1.56%
Union 188800-2784 1.47%
Warren 41900-528 1.26%
Grim:
did you catch this?
WSJ subscription needed
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113932670993367259.html?mod=todays_us_personal_journal
the NJ numbers come from Otteau according to the footnote
Not a subscriber, any way you can cut and paste the article in?
jb
There is some serious nutiness going on in Rutherford New Jersey. They have two somewhat brand new complexes with Condos, let me repeat that CONDOS going in excess of $900,000.
They seem to be marketing them as "Tired of paying NYC prices?". Well, yeah I am tired of paying NYC prices, ESPECIALLY IN NEW JERSEY.
Why buy those overpriced condos? The one next to the train station has a multi-lvel parking lot, not even a carport or garage under your own unit! And they want 450+ for 800 sqr feet!!!
I'd holdout for secaucus, they are building hundreds of units next to the train station over there, I wonder if they will be smoking crack too when they put them on the market.
rentinginnj,
No idea what will happen to the treasury market tomorrow, but I'll wager a guess over the long term.
Demand for longer dated treasuries is high right now, thus prices high, and yields low.
The long bond gives an alternative to the 10y for those seeking long dated treasuries, thus some of the demand currently vying for the 10y shifts to the 30y. Demand falls on the 10y and yield increases?
Was this a part of Greenspan's conundrum? Potentially.
Don't take my word for it though, look to the professionals for insight.
grim
Grim:
As you have probably seen elsewhere, it appears as if Greenspan may be more activist as a public speaker than he ever was as chairman of the Fed.
Ultimately, there is so much international money is UST, that we should only hope that Europe and Japan finally kick-start in gear. Once the Eurozone and Bank of Japan finally have the leeway to raise their own rates will we be able to siphon some of this parked money out of the system.
U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds Advance After $14 Billion Auction
Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 30-year Treasuries gained after a $14 billion government auction of 30-year bonds, the first sale of that maturity since 2001, sold at a lower yield than forecast.
[edit]
Speculation the Fed will raise interest rates at least twice more helped push yields on two-year Treasuries about 11 basis points higher than those on 10-year notes.
``If inflation or inflation expectations were to rise persistently, then policy clearly would have to be tightened further,'' meaning rates would have to rise, Moskow said in the text of a speech to the Risk Management Association of Chicago.
Interest-rate futures show traders are pricing in a 94 percent chance the Fed will raise the target rate to 4.75 percent at its next meeting on March 28, up from 76 percent two weeks ago. The odds of another quarter-point increase at the May 10 meeting rose to 56 percent, from zero percent last month.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aPgJyq5BMTnI&refer=us#
I have been following a site now for almost 2 years and I have found it to be both reliable and profitable. They post daily and their stock trades have been beating
the indexes easily.
Take a look at Wallstreetwinnersonline.com
RickJ
I have been following a site now for almost 2 years and I have found it to be both reliable and profitable. They post daily and their stock trades have been beating
the indexes easily.
Take a look at Wallstreetwinnersonline.com
RickJ
Post a Comment
<< Home