Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Northern NJ Weekly Residential Inventory Update

GSMLS
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)
3/08 - 13,094
3/15 - 13,418 (2.5% Weekly Increase)

NJMLS
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)
3/08 - 6,415
3/15 - 6,581 (2.6% Weekly Increase)

MLSGuide
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)
3/08 - 2,100
3/15 - 2,130 (2% Weekly Increase)

34 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Any way to know if these numbers are different from last spring?

3/15/2006 12:09:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi,
I see a lot of data (not just here) on foreclosures, sales declines, increase in supply, etc. But I think what everyone wants to know is the bottom line - prices. I've heard reports that say although the market has cooled off, prices are still going up.
It seems possible that even with all this data, prices may still be increasing. A 5% increase is still an increase nonetheless. Although I see you have some data ("lowball"), I think it might be possible that these are isolated cases and doesn't reflect the majority.
I hope you could post some charts that show declining prices, not just sales in NJ. If not, I hope you can point me in the right direction.

Thanks a lot! Love your blog!!

3/15/2006 12:16:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

U.S. home builder sentiment sours in March-report


An index of U.S. home builder sentiment fell in March to the lowest in nearly three years in response to rising mortgage rates and softening demand, the National Association of Home Builders said on Wednesday.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index slid to 55 in March, seasonally adjusted, from February's downwardly revised 56. It was the lowest since April, 2003, when it came in at the same level.
...
He attributed March's decline to eroding affordability conditions, as well as a gradual withdrawal of investor demand in some areas.

"Rising interest rates and high rates of home-price appreciation have raised the bar for homeownership to beyond what some families can reach," he said.


grim

3/15/2006 12:50:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

anyone know who jeffrey otteau is? he's a supposed authority on the NJ real estate market and here's what he's predicted for this selling season.

buyers and sellers are right now in a wait and see attitude. properties on the market are either from sellers that have purposely overpriced them to see if anyone bites or s*itboxes left over from the winter. he believes the 'boom' in transactions will occur in april when the weather gets warmer and people on both sides of the fence get more realistic about buying/selling. check it out for yourself.

http://www.otteau.com/index.html

3/15/2006 01:13:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

>>Rising interest rates and high rates of home-price appreciation have raised the bar for homeownership to beyond what some families can reach.

SOME families can reach? LOL! try looking at anything out there right now within spitting distance of NYC and not in the ghetto and you'll see almost no one can afford today's prices unless they have equity from a prior purchase.

3/15/2006 01:15:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Otteau's reports need to be taken with a grain of salt as well. Authority or not.

If you ever notice more than one realtor spouting out the same statistic or buzzword, it's likely because they read it in an Otteau report.

grim

3/15/2006 01:27:00 PM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

first time buyers are definitely priced out. it's only going to get worse as mortgage rates increase. there is only one way for deals at the entry level to get done: sellers need to cut prices. People can remain in denial about this for a while longer, but by summer, everyone will acknowledge it.

3/15/2006 01:40:00 PM  
Anonymous pop said...

Patience, patience, patience.

Sales declines are the first step in the process of a falling market. It indicates less people are able or willing to pay asking prices. Those still willing to purchase at asking will temporarily prop-up sales prices, but their numbers are dwindling as demonstrated by falling sales.

It takes sellers a long time to realize that their house will not sell for the optimistic number they had in mind. They will only realize this after many months or even years of not selling, unless individual circumstances require realistic pricing for a quicker sale.

We are only at the beginning of the Spring '06 sales season, and many sellers are still very optimistic that they will be able to sell now, even though they have heard the market has slowed a bit.

Hearing about a slowing market, and experiencing first hand as your property sits on the market month after month are two different things.

Patience...

3/15/2006 01:53:00 PM  
Blogger Bubble-X said...

How many times are we going to hear this BS about spring? Don't forget, there wil be plenty of sellers out too. In fact I know a few people who are waiting to sell this spring. In addition, a few weeks ago we posted a blog about how housing starting are going to pile inventory on top of everything else, just in time for the warm weather.


BubbleTrack.blogspot.com

3/15/2006 02:09:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

March will show an increase in sales over February. It's the typical behavior in North Jersey (at least it has been since 2000).

February marks the traditional low point in sales (closed sales, not contracts).

It's the YOY comparison with the preceeding years that is important here. My prediction is that March sales will come in approximately 10% below '05 levels.

I have a feeling the media and industry will say that the March increase is "evidence that the bubble does not exist".

grim

3/15/2006 02:34:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

heres a good measure ,, just spoke
to my landscaper... said he has never seen so many for sale signs
out. and for so long on the properties.

3/15/2006 02:48:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Inventory numbers compared to last spring?

Right now my estimate is up about 50% compared to last year. My inventory data is a bit spotty, but I believe current inventory is higher now than any time last year.

Otteau put the January inventory up 46% YOY.

http://www.mercerrealtors.com/otteau_report_spring06.htm

I think many readers fail to appreciate the significance of this.

grim

3/15/2006 02:54:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

with skyrocketing inventory the sellers will eventually have to blink. a few may get out with hefty profits, but the majority won't as the sellers far outstrip buyers.

it seems like this is the first time in recent memory that first time homebuyers have essentially been priced out of the market. this will kill the golden goose for sure. question is when.

3/15/2006 03:48:00 PM  
Anonymous pop said...

My realtor called yesterday. "The market and prices have already experienced a softening and prices won't be falling any further. Great time to buy. Real estate is still the best investment."

I just agreed

3/15/2006 04:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Found this on Craigslist. Take it with a grain of salt since it is sponsored by a realtor, but some interesting information on selected Bergen County towns none the less.

http://www.bergentownreports.com/

3/15/2006 04:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nassau/Suffolk - NY

3/13 - 29,045
3/14 - 29,229
3/15 - 29,377

3/15/2006 07:34:00 PM  
Blogger JMW977 said...

anonymous @ 12:16,

I was also perplexed by the reports of rising prices amid sales declines, etc. until I read (here, I think!) that the reason for the increase in median prices is that the low end is not selling at all.

Buyers at the high end are getting in now that they see significant price drops, thereby skewing the median price upward a bit.

Makes sense to me!

3/15/2006 07:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

my bad. those Nassau/Suffolk #'s also include Queens & Brooklyn.

3/15/2006 07:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Inventory piling up quickly.

Prices are going down but the downhill speed is picking up soon.

3/15/2006 07:59:00 PM  
Blogger Bubble-X said...

JMW977-

While I cant say why the median here in the northeast went up, it is clear that it did.

Things looked to be going down a bit, then the strong number for last month..

Anyway, I still suspect the quarter will be down.

We will be posting the median prices trends for various regions including the northeast over the next 5 days or so, on our blog, if your interested.

Bubble-X
BubbleTrack.blogspot.com

3/15/2006 10:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey POP,

Ask your realtor to give you a written guarantee on that.
In the end you are the one holding the liability not them.

3/16/2006 08:42:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"While I cant say why the median here in the northeast went up, it is clear that it did."

A reasonable explanation is that entry-level buyers are priced out of the market, but higher end buyers have the cash flow to make deals.

The net effect is that more expensive homes ($1-2M+) are still selling, which pushes up the median price in the marketplace.

3/16/2006 02:50:00 PM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

Reading Pop's post made me think of the recent commercials being aired by the real estate industry essentially crowing about how "ethical" they are. I find this both absurd and very telling. Anyone or any profession that has to make a lot of noise about their high level of ethics suggests to me that they aren't that ethical and the buyer should beware.

I mean think about it. If it is public perception that realtors are unethical, how do the realtors think the public got that impression? Is it that the public as a group just misperceives and misinterprets their actions? Or do they have a real ethics problem? Seems that the latter is the only logical choice.

3/16/2006 11:50:00 PM  
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