Monday, April 03, 2006

New Jersey Still Waiting The For Spring Market

The Otteau Report for February was released last Friday. The full text is as follows:

STILL! Waiting for the Spring Market

Although buying activity in February registered a 15% increase over January’s level, it is currently running well behind last years pace confirming the slowdown in the residential market is continuing into 2006. Year-to-date buying activity is currently running 14% less than last year’s pace while the inventory of unsold homes on the market is 61% higher than a year ago. By combining these indicators the resulting Market Swing of -75% indicates that the 2006 market has lost 75% of its strength as compared to last year at this time. While considerable demand still exists from the buying side of the housing equation, declining housing affordability will continue to dictate the “mood of the market”. From the seller’s perspective, more aggressive marketing and pricing strategies will be essential to restore the buyer’s ‘sense of urgency’ that was prevalent in 2005.




Caveat Emptor!
Grim

82 Comments:

Blogger grim said...

From the seller’s perspective, more aggressive marketing and pricing strategies will be essential to restore the buyer’s ‘sense of urgency’ that was prevalent in 2005.

Seems like everyone is pressuring sellers to reduce prices..

Brokerages pushing owners to lower prices

Looking to head off a sustained dip in the real estate market, some of Pittsburgh's largest real estate agencies are asking home sellers to do something that will mean less money for them and their agents: reduce their asking prices.

"Ninety-nine percent of the Realtors are doing that right now," said Ron Croushore, CEO of Prudential Preferred Realty and president of the West Penn Multi-List and the Realtors Association of Metropolitan Pittsburgh. "Inventory's beginning to build.


grim

4/03/2006 01:23:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

looked at a house for a second time in westfield on sunday. buyers were home. talked to them for a bit. they've lowered their asking once by $15k and the house is right now probably fairly priced for today's obscenely high market. wife and i still weren't interested. the selling broker called my broker and said the sellers are getting anxious and just want to get this over with. hint hint, they want us to make them an offer. normally we'd lowball but we're just not interested in the place.

this is the first time i've gotten direct feedback from a seller in quite a while. note this is a top town on a great block. other places in the area are selling briskly but a few are starting to sit.

4/03/2006 01:38:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

While considerable demand still exists from the buying side of the housing equation, declining housing affordability will continue to dictate the “mood of the market”......

I thought demand was a function of supply. In this case supply of affordable housing. How many bubble sitters are there?

Last I saw about 70% of households own their home. So are we to deduce that the other 30% are wanting to buy? Are they capable of buying? I don't think so.

When the resets hit there will not be the hoards of people waiting to buy IMO.

4/03/2006 01:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lowered asking price by $15k and they are motivated??

What a laugh.

4/03/2006 01:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great board for new buyers.

You wouldn't know any of this on real world reporting.
Months supply and inventory growing.

NICE!

AC

4/03/2006 01:44:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

AC,

Grim and his blog are a valuable resource. The RE biz would undoubtedly prefer that we did not know alot of the things grim brings to light. Thank you grim for your contribution here.

4/03/2006 02:05:00 PM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

Good site which shows listing with map.

http://www.trulia.com/

4/03/2006 02:07:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

it'll take a while for the psychology to turn. i agree with another poster than sometime mid-2008 we might see the bottom before prices flatten to allow affordability to catch up.

4/03/2006 02:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim,

Excellent information as usual. This is more evidence that my wife and i have made the right decision, which is to hold-off on buying a house. We have a month-to-month rental and are quite happy with it too. Good luck to everyone.

4/03/2006 02:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I went to open-houses in Glen Rock and Ridgewood yesterday. Just by looking at the list price, most sellers are still in denial of the market. Some people are looking around partially due to the nice weather. No seriousness observed.

These ultra-high listing prices are pure imaginary numbers of the owners and realtors that try to please the owner to get their agency.

4/03/2006 02:25:00 PM  
Blogger Bubble-X said...

I talked to a realtor this weekend, and got some good quotes. They said "it's scary" out there.

You can check it out if you want-

BubbleTrack.blogspot.com

4/03/2006 02:45:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

The open houses we visited were for entertainment only.

Interestingly, this was first time that a realtor filled out the sign in sheet for us. I can't remember that ever happening before.

grim

4/03/2006 02:45:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Note: SoCalMtnGuy has a new post up:

http://www.housingbubblecasualty.com


He's been MIA for a few weeks -- got a new job outside the mortgage industry.

4/03/2006 03:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Since many of you have suggested that I send my kids to private school instead of buying in a better town (and doubling my mortgage payment) . . . . .
can you all weigh in on the topic of Catholic vs. Public for grammar school?

Thanks,
Karen

4/03/2006 03:11:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

I happened to run across this blog due to the author visiting a bulletin board on NJ.com.

You guys are singing in the same choir over here and I don't like the music.

Look, I'm sorry to inform you that the sky is not falling. There is no real estate bubble to be burst as long as the negative talk stops and the fed chair stops raising rates. Both of these will kill a good investment market if you don't stop it.

There are a few people who have their home overpriced and they need to adjust things, but there will never be a complete collapse as some of you think.

Also, it is anti-bush and anti-america for all of you to be talking this way while we're at war.

4/03/2006 03:12:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Is this a joke or are you serious?

4/03/2006 03:17:00 PM  
Blogger Richie said...

Well, for someone with the profile name "RE Investor" my guess is that he/she has a vested interest in the market.

Never say never.

4/03/2006 03:21:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Looks like we've been joined by a Bitter Realtor™

Best approach: ignore.

4/03/2006 03:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So tempting to issue a scathing response...but I will ignore.

4/03/2006 03:33:00 PM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

Article on impact of Zoning.

http://www.reason.org/commentaries/staley_20051219.shtml

I live in Bridgewater NJ and my commute around here takes me through towns like North Branch, Branchburg, Readington, Lamington, Bedminster etc... Everyday when I drive through this towns, I see large tract of land, that is laying out there. Normally, people talk about not allowing houses on Farm land but I don't see any kind of produce done on these farms.

On the same token, I see large amount of traffic in peak hour on Rte 78 (folks commuting from PA to NJ for work). I feel really sad that though there is lot of land here in NJ which is not at all used, houses are not built here, and folks have to commute from PA to NJ.

I hope one of these days this anamoly could be reduced.

4/03/2006 03:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Reinvestor101,

IMHO, it is not possible to be both anti-bush AND anti-American.

Peace.

4/03/2006 03:42:00 PM  
Blogger delford said...

reinvestor101: I consider it my patriotic duty to warn as many people as possible about the now collapsing housing bubble. I do it all the time and will continue to do this. The more scared they are the better.

There is no bubble? Yeah right. The proof is overwhelming. It wont burst? real esate has burst before, and stayed flat for years. And in those days you really had to qualify for a mortgage.

The only thing un-American is the real esate industry and all its minnion who have been goading unsophisicated buyers to take reckless chances on homes they cannot afford.

As for nj.com, I post there, but the resident bull on that forum continues to ahve my posts pulled.

4/03/2006 03:46:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

higher rates will kill the monthly payment mentality of today's home buyers as they realize appreciation isn't going to bail them out. whether the market declines at all, even a flat market will shake out the buyers who bought too much house for their income.

4/03/2006 03:47:00 PM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

I guess BULLS are still in denial stage, there is no point in convincing. As most folks on this board know very well that there is a bubble and it has started to leak.

Most BULLs & Realtors want market to go flat for sometime. I feel we should make concerted effort to foil this. In fact, the faster the market reaches its correct stage, better it will be for everyone. The slow down movement will hurt more then the fast one.

I feel all of us on this board should broadcast the BEAR message and see that Media keeps writing such stories. That way the downfall will be quicker and less painful.

4/03/2006 04:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"IMHO, it is not possible to be both anti-bush AND anti-American."


Anti-Americans are near uniformly anti-Bush.

(Sorry for feeding the trolls)

4/03/2006 04:06:00 PM  
Blogger NJGal said...

Karen, I went to Catholic grammar and high school. The smaller classes and discipline are great. The focus on writing and developing a person morally (which necessitates you agreeing with the morals presented) is also great.

HOWEVER...I think I would end it at Catholic grammar school. While I loved my high school, Catholic school puts you at a big disadvantage with colleges - and when I was looking, colleges admitted this to me. They just don't like Catholic schools, probably because they are religious institutions and most schools have a liberal bias. I'm not saying that's right or wrong, but less intelligent, less well rounded kids from my local public school got into better schools than our top grads, including our number one graduate, who was pretty much a genius with a 105 average and near 1600 on the SATs. The same was true down the line for the top 10% - and I know these were bright, involved people, comparable if not better than the public school kids.

So, I do not plan to send my kids to Catholic school for those reasons. But Catholic grammar school may provide good discipline that can be lacking in public schools.

4/03/2006 04:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm a buyer(looking to buy in and around Edison area) waiting on the sidelines . All my freinds and colleagues in office own their dwellings. Each time the topic of real estate comes up, these folks say that home prices will not drop in the area I'm considering to buy. The argument they make is that homeowners in this area are mostly affluent (well to do folks) who have the financial wherewital to weather any forseeable real estate downturn and that prices will not be falling by more than 15 to 10 %.
What facts to state to counter their argument. Appreciate any comments.

4/03/2006 04:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm a buyer(looking to buy in and around Edison area) waiting on the sidelines . All my freinds and colleagues in office own their dwellings. Each time the topic of real estate comes up, these folks say that home prices will not drop in the area I'm considering to buy. The argument they make is that homeowners in this area are mostly affluent (well to do folks) who have the financial wherewital to weather any forseeable real estate downturn and that prices will not be falling by more than 15 to 10 %.
What facts to state to counter their argument. Appreciate any comments.

4/03/2006 04:12:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

NJGal, if a college is bigoted against Catholic school students, perhaps consider another college. Why send kids into an environment of bigots?

4/03/2006 04:24:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Grim, if I may suggest a new feature:

The Brazen Seller Award

MLS 2261641
2BR (yes 2), 2.5 BA
$840,000
277 Forest Drive South, Short Hills
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1057139135



Owner paid $735,000 at market peak in July 2005, made no improvements, now wants $105,000 because this 2 bedroom ranch now comes with "architects preliminary drawings for a 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath colonial."

Brazen baby!

4/03/2006 04:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"All my freinds and colleagues in office own their dwellings"

"these folks say that home prices will not drop in the area I'm considering to buy" Anon 5:11

Dear Sir/Madam,
1. If you can read and do simple arithmetic, you will find your answer.
2. If you don't want to do suggestion #1, than I suggest you buy as much house as you can afford, using a negative amortizing-interest only loan.
ps: use a stated income/ no doc. application, we wouldn't want you to miss out vis a vis some banking limit nonsense.
Sincerely,
Someone who doesn't give a r#ts a## about lazy people.

4/03/2006 05:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have spotted an interesting article in USA Today regarding the ARM.

sEE THE LINK BELOW


http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/20060403/bs_usatoday/somehomeownersstruggletokeepupwithadjustablerates;_ylt=AhR3LFL20O.LxHkOLn1Lqq.s0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3ODdxdHBhBHNlYwM5NjQ-

4/03/2006 05:50:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

101

I am not anti Bush and I am very pro American. I am also one the believes that there is a bubble.

In fact I am pro Bush but also think that more regs are needed to keep the bad loans from hitting the market.

4/03/2006 06:20:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

"Shailesh Gala said...
I guess BULLS are still in denial stage, there is no point in convincing. As most folks on this board know very well that there is a bubble and it has started to leak....Most BULLs & Realtors want market to go flat for sometime. I feel we should make concerted effort to foil this. In fact, the faster the market reaches its correct stage, better it will be for everyone. The slow down movement will hurt more then the fast one."


I think this is outrageous. You want to actively destroy the real estate market? You're calling for people to do the work of terrorists and the communists. Both of them want to destroy us but they don't need to do that when there are some many people willing to do it for them.

Why do interest rates have to go up? The Federal is trying to hurt everyone. They too want to destroy.

This is a capitalist country and there is nothing wrong with making money. If everyone is making money, why do some people want to stop that? Why do the work of the terrorists and communists? You need to be asking that people support the real estate market by buying and getting rid of this fool at the federal.

4/03/2006 06:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oops the other link was cut off. Here is the link.

Article in USA today

Some homeowners struggle to keep up with adjustable rates

Grim
This one is worth commenting

Cliffy

4/03/2006 06:27:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

reinvestor101,

Why do the work of the terrorists and communists?

Man, you've really got it bad!

What else does Rush tell you to think?

4/03/2006 06:34:00 PM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

for those who are interested in Westchester RE, take a look at this POS. That's right, it's a 2 BR /1Ba shack in Rye for a mere $820,000. Renovated exactly zero times since it was built for someone's cleaning lady in 1920.

By the way, it's on a 0.11 acre lot, so don't think that you could tear it down and build something nice. Must be seen to fully appreciate!

http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListing.asp?snum=1&locallnk=yes&frm=bymap&mnbed=0&mnbath=0&mnprice=800000&mxprice=850000&js=off&pgnum=1&fid=so&stype=&mnsqft=&mls=xmls&areaid=1394&poe=realtor&ct=Rye&st=NY&sbint=&vtsort=&sorttype=&typ=1&typ=2&typ=4&x=45&y=7&sid=0667A36994C9C&snumxlid=1057225367&lnksrc=00002

4/03/2006 06:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Reinvestor101, I suggest you contact a professional psychiatrist ASAP.

http://www.find-a-psychiatrist.com

4/03/2006 06:54:00 PM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

in case the above link doesn't work

MLS ID#: 2608660

4/03/2006 06:56:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

It is my responsibility as a patriot and a citizen of a democracy to stand up and speak out about this problem.

grim

4/03/2006 06:59:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

From the Daily Reckoning:

Turbulence? We remind readers that real property prices in central Baltimore declined for 75 years, after peaking in the mid-‘20s. Farmland in western Kansas peaked in the 1880s, and has never recovered. Looking ahead, we suspect that suburban property on both coasts is now reaching an epochal high. We may never see such high prices again in our lifetimes.

grim

4/03/2006 07:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Reinvestor101

This is a capitalist country and there is nothing wrong with making money. If everyone is making money, why do some people want to stop that?




You are hilarious reinvestor101. Don't forget this is also a free country. Please look up the first amendment and then get back to us.

My guess is that reinvestor101 is terrified because he knows there is a bubble and fears once the masses find out everyone will head for the exit.

Maybe you would be better off in China where information is controlled and you're only told what the government wants you to hear.

Good luck selling your overpriced property(ies).

4/03/2006 07:26:00 PM  
Anonymous trroll said...

reinvestor101

Are you for real? You seriously need a professional help. Grim, I think you could sue this guy for calling you a terrorist.
It’s people like you who are un-patriotic. By spreading the BS of wonders of RE and that it always goes up – you made many people to believe that’s true and they are in debt up to their eyeballs. And it’s not just regular citizens but the country itself is in tremendous debt which we will be paying off for couple of next generations – if we are lucky to pay it back at all.
So, lets go and tell everybody to borrow more money and leverage themselves even more so you can make few more $$ of them. I hope you can sleep at night. But on the other hand – I’m sure you do….

4/03/2006 07:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Stop the crying re investor. The free markets are working the way they should.

Correcting excesses in the economy and letting capital flow to the best opportunties.

Right now Money is leaving re in droves because it is overpriced.

This REAL ESTATE BUBBLE is a text book Bubble case. Do a little research and you will see past irrational periods in hisotry looked very similar. This one is no different. he only thing is that this maybe the largest biggest leveraged bubble in history.

Batte down the hatches folks cuz the correction is here and is is going to be deep.

4/03/2006 08:05:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well In China, they popped their RE bubble by forcing buyers to put down 30% instead of 20%. They did the right thing.

The lunatics running the FED think they can paper over any problem and recessions are a thing of the past solved by the $ printing presses.

4/03/2006 08:09:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Guys, "reinvestor101" has come on here with the aim of getting a rise out of people, and drawing attention.

He's succeeding.

Best approach: ignore.

4/03/2006 08:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

-Karen
I don't agree with nigal at all. Those statements are absolutely and completely false. First of all, my opinion is that depending on what town you live in, the grammer school may not be so bad. For example, Morristown has a horrible high school, but some of the grammer schools aren't bad. I don't think Catholic grammer school is worth the money. HOWEVER, Catholic high school on the other hand is extremely beneficial. I am not sure what colleges you would be interested in your children attending, but some of the top universities (below ivy league) are Jesuit/Catholic. For that reason alone, Nigal's comments don't make any sense. For example, Fordham, Fairfield University, Loyola, University of Scranton, etc are all excellent schools, and they are all Catholic. Most Priests and Nuns at Catholic high schools have connections at these universities. Also, many Catholic high schools are respected even more than public high schools. I can't tell you enough how I completely disagree with the above statements. My husband attending St. Peter's prep in Jersey City, which is a highly competitive school, and the majority of the alumni are extremely successful. In addition, I attended Paramus Catholic, and I still keep in touch with many of my classmates who are all college graduates and successful.

In Summary, save your money for grammer school, because not much is that different at that level. High school is where you should spend the money. It will ultimately make the main difference.

-Christine

4/03/2006 08:38:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

trroll said...

Are you for real? You seriously need a professional help. Grim, I think you could sue this guy for calling you a terrorist.
It’s people like you who are un-patriotic. By spreading the BS of wonders of RE and that it always goes up – you made many people to believe that’s true and they are in debt up to their eyeballs. And it’s not just regular citizens but the country itself is in tremendous debt which we will be paying off for couple of next generations – if we are lucky to pay it back at all.
So, lets go and tell everybody to borrow more money and leverage themselves....


Yes I am for real and you people over here have a little club where you pat each other on the back by agreeing with one another and don't want to hear a different opinion. I have been greeted with suggestions that I need "professional help" or that I should be ignored because I'm trying to get a "rise" out of someone. I don't need help and I don't need to get a rise out of anyone. I'm here just like everyone else to express his damn opinion. If you can be a bear and express yours, why can't I express mine?

Deficits and debt don't matter as much as some of you think. That was proven long ago under Reagan. To grow something you need some fuel and as long as the asset inflates or the economy grows, we don't have a problem. The problem I have is that some people are trying to go the other route by making things deflate instead. If this is supposed to be a free market, why does the federal have to interfere by raising rates? The main problem on the real estate now is the federal and the negative press. If that is not stopped, there will be a problem.

I'm from the old school and I love my country. I don't want to see nothing bad happen to it and lots of people losing money is a bad thing to happen. There was someone here who suggested that the real estate market be foiled by forcing it to collapse quickly. No one here had anything to say about that. As far as i'm concerned, that is hating this country and I have a problem with that along with a different opinion. I believe that anyone who suggests that might as well join up with radical Islamists, Putin and the Chinese and I'm gonna stand on this position.

The bottom line is that all of you here should be doing your part to help the real estate market (and any other market) by supporting it and not by hoping for it to fall.

4/03/2006 09:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, but which fine institution taught you how to spell "grammar"?

Just sayin'...

;-)

4/03/2006 09:09:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Reinvestor101 said: “Why do interest rates have to go up? The Federal is trying to hurt everyone. They too want to destroy.”

It's very possible that the Federal Reserve has been infiltrated by the dastardly Reds. I am surprised the House Committee on Un-American Activities has not opened an investigation into this treachery.

For those who still need convincing, please see this 1962 film prepared by the National Education Program:

http://www.archive.org/stream/WarWeAre1962/WarWeAre1962_64kb.mp4

4/03/2006 09:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

101,
Do your part first. Borrow a million and buy. BTW, I am Chinese!

4/03/2006 09:15:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

reinvestor101,

"and as long as the asset inflates or the economy grows, we don't have a problem."

Just listen to yourself - you're delusional.

4/03/2006 09:19:00 PM  
Blogger Richie said...


The bottom line is that all of you here should be doing your part to help the real estate market (and any other market) by supporting it and not by hoping for it to fall.


I support a healthy real-estate market. The market that exists today is unhealthy. When you have people thinking that crown moldings and fresh coat of paint add $15,000 to a homes value, there's a slight problem.

-Richie

4/03/2006 09:37:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

But seriously,

“If this is supposed to be a free market, why does the federal have to interfere by raising rates?”

The Fed has a duel mandate of full employment and price stability (of the dollar). Both Greenspan and Bernanke have explicitly stated they will not try to pop the RE bubble. It is the Fed’s job (mandated by law) to protect the value of the dollar, not your real estate investment.

I agree with you in blaming the Fed for much of this mess. But, I doubt you complained about interference in the free market when the Fed lowered rates to 1%, which made borrowing cheap and allowed home prices to go way up? It sounds to me like you are a free market capitalist when the Fed makes borrowing money cheap and easy, but when your real estate investment is at risk, you turn into a socialist who expects the Federal Reserve to accommodate you with their monetary policy.

4/03/2006 09:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

a bit off the topic of this thread... but i had to share this with you if you havent read it already

From the Star Ledger Sunday 04/02/06

So what do you with a contaminated tank farm in Jersey City? Bury a dead mobster, perhaps.

Or build the world's most exclusive golf course.

Beginning July Fourth, that course will be found at Liberty National. Here, on a reclaimed ex panse of toxic ground, the ripples from New York Harbor already lap against the wetlands 30 feet below the 14th hole -- a 149-yard par three in the spirit of Pebble Beach on California's Monterey Peninsula. A few hundred yards into the bay, Lady Liberty takes in the action from an elevated, island gallery.

Beyond the statue, the glass- and-stone skyline of Lower Manhattan looms. There, if the owners of this club have it right, people will be willing to fork over a $400,000 initiation fee to play on one of the most expensive golf courses ever built. Rudy Giuliani has already signed on as a charter member. So has New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft.


rest of story:


bobby

4/03/2006 09:50:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

“I'm from the old school and I love my country. I don't want to see nothing bad happen to it and lots of people losing money is a bad thing to happen.”

Most (if not all) of us here love our country too. We also see a very dangerous situation developing. This will be corrected. Bubbles always burst. It’s the way a free market works. Yes, it’s going to be painful, but the quicker the bubble bursts, the quicker we can put this behind us, learn from it, and move on. This is the

By the way, much of the cheap money that has been funding this bubble comes from China and the Middle East.

4/03/2006 09:55:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

But seriously,

“If this is supposed to be a free market, why does the federal have to interfere by raising rates?”

The Fed has a duel mandate of full employment and price stability (of the dollar). Both Greenspan and Bernanke have explicitly stated they will not try to pop the RE bubble. It is the Fed’s job (mandated by law) to protect the value of the dollar, not your real estate investment.

I agree with you in blaming the Fed for much of this mess. But, I doubt you complained about interference in the free market when the Fed lowered rates to 1%, which made borrowing cheap and allowed home prices to go way up? It sounds to me like you are a free market capitalist when the Fed makes borrowing money cheap and easy, but when your real estate investment is at risk, you turn into a socialist who expects the Federal Reserve to accommodate you with their monetary policy.


If that's the case, the federal has failed at it mission. The dollar has fallen versus most major currencies. That's not the mission they're concerned about anyway. They want to kill the real estate market just like they did the stock market. They're unaccountable and that needs to change.

The real estate market was already booming before the fed lowered rates. The federal will have more effect by raising rates than it did by lowering them. I certainly benefited with the rates low and it's unfair for them to abruptly take back the rates after letting everybody get used to real low ones.

As to your other post regarding who is buying our debt, I'm aware and concerned about who is doing that. We saw that China and Putin went against us when we were wanting to sanction Iran and we need to wean ourselves from China for this very reason. The interests of China and the turnface russians are not in line with ours.

China and the rest of them do need to maintain dollar reserves mainly due to our 1970's agreement with OPEC pricing oil in dollars. I don't look for that to change anytime soon so on the other hand,I don't worry about China and the others in their financing our trade deficit so much.

4/03/2006 10:27:00 PM  
Blogger Rob Ryley said...

"Look, I'm sorry to inform you that the sky is not falling. There is no real estate bubble to be burst as long as the negative talk stops and the fed chair stops raising rates. Both of these will kill a good investment market if you don't stop it."

Sophisticated stock investors know it is a sign of trouble when management blames "short sellers" for a share price decline.

In a similar vein, it's a bad sign for RE bulls when they complain about "the media" creating a bearish mindset in the public.

A "good market"--good for whom? Those who borrow from the future to pay for today's consumption, and hope to pay off in cheaper nominal dollars? Those who profit from inflation, including the govt. the bankers, Wall Street, and the spendthrifts we all know and love to hate, do benefit from the easy money.

The inflation you profit from certainly doesn't help the poor, the unemployed, or those starting out in life.

We have the worst of both worlds. Global competition (which is a long run good thing) is limitting wage increases for U.S. workers.

This wouldn't normally be a problem, but all sorts of structural factors (ie. govt. regulations), make it difficult for unemployed labor to shift to where it is needed most. So people remain unemployed.

Yet, easy money and govt. deficits are increasing the cost of certain essential goods and services--housing, health care, and to some extent, energy.

Things cannot inflate for ever. Debt and deficits do matter, despite what you wrote.

Should our foreign lenders, who have been ever so kind to lend at such low rates, lose faith in the dollar, your dollar gains in real-estate will be worth less (perhaps worthless), because those who have the goods and services you want will either demand boatloads of dollars, or might simply refuse to accept a dollar as payment.

The Fed can't permit that to happen. It's mandate is to keep "price stability" which is essentially a euphamism for confidence in the dollar.

What is amazing is how rotten the U.S. govt. is acting towards our foreign lenders. That nitwit Chuck Schumer "threatens" China with tariffs that will only hurt U.S. consumers (likely on the lower end of the income scale).

It will do nothing to bring back U.S. jobs, nor will it reduce our account deficit with China.

Then they nix the acquisition of U.S. ports by the UAE company, which despite the claims of opponents, posed no risk to national security.

Should the U.S govt. continue to restrict the things foreigners can do with dollars in the U.S., do you think they will continue to buy Treasuries at such low rates?

If all they can do is continue to buy Treasuries, and will receive grief if they try to buy any other U.S. asset, you can bet money that the dollar will fall, and interest rates will rise.

And there will be absolutely NOTHING the Fed, or the Federal Govt., could do to alleviate the misery such a scenario would cause.

4/03/2006 10:40:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

From Rob Ryley "Should our foreign lenders, who have been ever so kind to lend at such low rates, lose faith in the dollar, your dollar gains in real-estate will be worth less (perhaps worthless), because those who have the goods and services you want will either demand boatloads of dollars, or might simply refuse to accept a dollar as payment.

The Fed can't permit that to happen. It's mandate is to keep "price stability" which is essentially a euphamism for confidence in the dollar.

What is amazing is how rotten the U.S. govt. is acting towards our foreign lenders. That nitwit Chuck Schumer "threatens" China with tariffs that will only hurt U.S. consumers (likely on the lower end of the income scale).


This is the liberal position to worry about how China and others feel. We are the guys with the big stick and if anything, we just let them know what we want and let them fiqure out how high to jump. This is what I love about the Bush adminstration; they're bulls when they need to be.

One of the things you forget is that we have all the trappings of a superpower because we have the economic and military power to dictate and dominate any spectrum. I'd rather us to be in this position than any other country. Because of this, we can wield influence where we need to wield it to promote and protect ourselves economically.

The US dollar is the world's reserve currency and it is unchallenged. The major commodity that everyone needs, oil, is priced in dollars so this means that every nation needing oil must maintain some level of dollar reserves anyway. Although I have some concerns about China's financing of our trade deficit, these are somewhat lessened by our position in world economic affairs. These guys ain't going nowhere and I'm not worried about them affecting real estate.

As to people getting displaced, the economy will ultimately find jobs for them. Hell, there's plenty of jobs to be had as long as people are willing to work.

Our economic history has been characterized by a growing money supply (inflation) and that will continue for the forseeable future unless the federal screws something up. So yes, I see absolutely nothing wrong with satisfying today's debt with tomorrow's inflated dollars. That formula has been working pretty good and I see no reason for it to not to continue to work unless this fool in charge of the federal jerks us.

4/03/2006 11:26:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Here's how builders can crush anyone's hopes of buying a 'fixer upper' in a nice town:

6 Knollwood Rd, Short Hills
Closed Nov 2004 @ $910,000

House torn down.

New house built.

Asking price for new house: $2,575,000
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1056803317


Mere mortals need a miracle to buy in that environment.

Though this was built last year, and the party ended in August 2005.

4/04/2006 12:00:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Mr. Ryley,

Excellent comment.

jb

4/04/2006 05:36:00 AM  
Blogger Rob Ryley said...

"This is the liberal position to worry about how China and others feel. We are the guys with the big stick and if anything, we just let them know what we want and let them fiqure out how high to jump. This is what I love about the Bush adminstration; they're bulls when they need to be."

Reinvestor,

Your thinking is black and white. Keep in mind, I'm no "liberal" unless you mean libertarian.

The idea we can tell our creditors what to do, and when to do it, is absurd. The world is a big place, and there are other places to invest.

Should the U.S. attempt to intimidate the rest of the world into lending it money, rest assured that this will only encourage other countries to cooperate against the U.S. interests. The U.S. is no match for the entire globe.

The wealthy Middle East, many of whom are U.S. allies, are going to funnel their dollars somewhere else, thanks to the nitwits who are arguing for protectionism.

Read a little about history. Leading up to the Great Depression, the U.S. was in the same position that China and Japan is now.

England was jawboning the U.S. to keep rates low, devalue the dollar, so the pound would not fall in value. Germany, France, and England owed billions to the U.S. for loans during WW I.

The only way those countries could remain affloat is by continued U.S. loans. Failure to loan would result in massive losses for the U.S. treasury, and U.S. investors.

Guess what, despite continued loans, the Depression happened anyway.

The financial parallels between the 20's and now are striking, and frightening. History doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme.

4/04/2006 07:03:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Chinese official: Beijing should sell U.S. bonds

HONG KONG - China should stop buying U.S. Treasuries and take steps to reduce its holdings in those bonds, a Hong Kong newspaper on Tuesday quoted a high-ranking Chinese official as saying.
...
Analysts estimate that China invests about three-quarters of its foreign currency reserves — which last year rose to $818.9 billion — in U.S. Treasuries.


grim

4/04/2006 07:29:00 AM  
Blogger NJGal said...

"For example, Fordham, Fairfield University, Loyola, University of Scranton, etc are all excellent schools, and they are all Catholic. Most Priests and Nuns at Catholic high schools have connections at these universities."

Christine, those are average schools, but sorry, they're just that - average. EVERYONE goes to college nowadays, and if a parent is the type that wants their kids to have advantages, Catholic colleges, with the exception of Notre Dame and Georgetown, aren't generally where it's at. Of course Catholic high school is going to help you get into those types of schools, but my aim isn't to send my kids to those schools, nor was I myself looking at those schools when I was told that my Catholic high school was a hindrance.

As for Karen's original question, if your choice is to send your kid to a bad public grammar school or a decent Catholic one, the Catholic one would be a better choice. Then I would move before high school to get them into a good public school.

4/04/2006 08:32:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

OH I see reinvestor

So when the Heli-Fed pushed rates to 1% that was okay, but when they raise rates due to insane speculation it's bad?

Good luck to you fellow. Denial will wiipe you out.

4/04/2006 08:35:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Interesting discussion. Also civil, which is an added bonus.

My $0.02. Always consider the MARGINAL effect of any actor in the marketplace. As an example, the USD is the reserve currency, but if oil producers are offput by the alarmist rejection of the ports deal, they can dump 5% of U.S. stocks positions, they can sell some U.S. real estate holdings, and they can sell 10% of their U.S. Treasuries and hold more Euros and Yen for diversification. Any of these actions would be damaging to U.S. market conditions.

China holds our debt, they are not our friends, they are ominous, but we have to respect them. The flip side is that they are undergoing a massive economic and cultural upheaval that will take a generation to digest, but where will we be in 2030?

The U.S. can be the world's policeman, but part of the reason that Germany and Japan have remained so docile in the last 60 years is that the U.S. has been a good partner. If you alienate everyone outside our shores, action becomes that much more expensive when we have to foot the entire bill. Also, you run the risk of China, India, Japan and Germany asserting or re-asserting themselves on the world's stage. Russia is always out there as well.

I don't think that the U.S. is going to be the premier country in the world by the end of this century. If you don't see the warning signs, then you aren't really considering all of the relevant facts.

chicago

4/04/2006 08:56:00 AM  
Blogger Richie said...

So when the Heli-Fed pushed rates to 1% that was okay, but when they raise rates due to insane speculation it's bad?

I remember when rates were ratcheting up in the tech bubble how upset all the investors got.. You can't raise rates now!! no!!

4/04/2006 11:07:00 AM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

Also, it is anti-bush and anti-america for all of you to be talking this way while we're at war.

You're calling for people to do the work of terrorists and the communists.


I've always enjoyed the reasoned, intellect inspired discussions on this blog but now it seems that we're just "terrorists and communists". Perhaps Reinvest101 would like that "ugly" 1954 split-level in Summit posted elsewhere on this blog. That way he could easily revel in the accomplishments of Joseph McCarthy who succeeded in squelching much dissent by labeling dissenters as communists.

Reinvest101, your posts would be much better received here if they were based less on emotion and more on real data that supports your position. You are way out of line to suggest that anyone on this blog supports communism or terrorism based on our opinions regarding the housing bubble (yes, there is a great deal of economic data to support a bubble, and you can find most, if not all of it on this site).

4/04/2006 10:15:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"That way he could easily revel in the accomplishments of Joseph McCarthy who succeeded in squelching much dissent by labeling dissenters as communists."


While I think reinvestor101 is completely off his rocker, it's important to get history straight. McCarthy was correct, and was proven so when the Venona Project was declassified in 1995:

http://www.nsa.gov/venona

McCarthy was not about attacking "dissenters" but about unmasking Soviet agents who were undermining the United States from within:


Nova (PBS Television)
February 5, 2002

"Secrets, Lies, and Atomic Spies"

In 1995, the U.S. National Security Agency broke a half century of silence by releasing translations of Soviet cables decrypted back in the 1940s by the Venona Project. Venona was a top-secret U.S. effort to gather and decrypt messages sent in the 1940s by agents of what is now called the KGB and the GRU, the Soviet military intelligence agency. The cables revealed the identities of numerous Americans who were spies for the Soviet Union.

Ultimately the code breakers found cover names for more than 300 Americans who spied for the Soviets in World War Two.

One who had the cover name "Quantum," provided the Soviets at a very early stage, the actual scientific formula for separating U-235 from U-238, which is a very key step in developing a working atomic bomb.

American counterintelligence was able to identify only about 100 of these Soviet agents.

But even this incomplete list is remarkable: Harry Dexter White, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, cover name "Lawyer;" Larry Duggan, Chief of the Division of American Republics at the State Department, cover name "Prince;" Lauchlin Currie, Senior Administrative Assistant to President Roosevelt, cover name "Page."

There was not a single agency of the American government that the Soviets had not infiltrated, ranging from the OSS--the forerunner of the CIA--to the Justice Department, to the Treasury Department, to the State Department, to all of the wartime defense agencies.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/transcripts/2904_venona.html



That's right, including the White House and "all of the wartime defense agencies."

All through college, and certinaly in the 'mainstream' media and Hollywood, McCarthy has been wrongly demonized, when in fact he was doing the right thing.

I'd wager that few here have ever heard the word "Venona" until now and you'll certainly never see a Hollywood movie about Venona (or a movie about mass murderers Stalin or Mao, for that matter).

Further, the editors of NY Times wrote an OpEd last year defending convicted and executed Soviet agents, as if the Venona documents re-confirming their guilt had never been released.

It's Orwellian how the 'mainstream' media and Hollywood continue to perpetuate the "McCarthyism" demonization, and simply bury the facts revealed in Venona. Why that is, and why hollywood will never make a movie about Stalin, is food for thought.

4/05/2006 01:57:00 PM  
Blogger Rob Ryley said...

Unrealtor,

Thanks for posting that. I was about to put something up about McCarthy, but you beat me to it. I have a book on Venona that I have to get through, but you are 100% correct. McCarthy has gotten a bad rap.

4/05/2006 04:27:00 PM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

Unrealtor, the fact that McCarthy may have been correct about communist spies infiltrating the government, is beside the point. His methods are the issue. This man systematically made accusations against people with little or no evidence and it is well documented that he associated the democratic party with communist sympathizers. Those who criticized him at the time were also accused by him of being associated or sympathizing with communists.

The fact that he may have later been proven right is beside the point in my book. If you accuse enough people of something, sooner or later you'll find some whose behavior deserves the accusation. But so what? Does that mean it's right to this in the first place? To make accusations without evidence? Interestingly few if any convictions resulted from these investigations.

4/05/2006 09:38:00 PM  
Blogger Rob Ryley said...

"This man systematically made accusations against people with little or no evidence and it is well documented that he associated the democratic party with communist sympathizers."

Well, there certainly were a lot more communist sympathisers in the Democratic party as compared to the Republican party. Hell, there were even some Soviet spies in FDR's cabinet.

What is a guy supposed to do when he sees enemies of his country take over the governmenal apparatus? Play nice?

4/06/2006 07:35:00 AM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

Rob Ryley,

"Well, there certainly were a lot more communist sympathisers in the Democratic party as compared to the Republican party. Hell, there were even some Soviet spies in FDR's cabinet."

Since no one was convicted of any wrong-doing in these witchhunts, you can not conclude that anyone was doing anything wrong---that's the American system---individuals are innocent until proven guilty.

"What is a guy supposed to do when he sees enemies of his country take over the governmenal apparatus? Play nice?"

How about play according to the rules of the constitution? That's what makes America, America. The point is that McCarthy didn't actually see or have evidence of enemies infiltrating the government---these were merely wild accusations.

We probably shouldn't keep this discussion up. It's off the topic and I'm to blame for bringing it up in first place! Sorry. :-(

4/07/2006 12:32:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Well, there certainly were a lot more communist sympathisers in the Democratic party as compared to the Republican party. Hell, there were even some Soviet spies in FDR's cabinet. What is a guy supposed to do when he sees enemies of his country take over the governmenal apparatus? Play nice"

This conversation is interesting, particularly in light of the recent relevations about warrantless eavesdropping on e-mail and telephones. To be sure, there may be a few terrorists around, but does that mean that it's correct to eavesdrop on citizens?

The fact of the matter is that McCarthy would be right at home with the current administration in its witchhunting and selective leaks that were apparently authorized by Bush himself.

4/07/2006 01:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Very nice! I found a place where you can
make some nice extra cash secret shopping. Just go to the site below
and put in your zip to see what's available in your area.
I made over $900 last month having fun!
make extra money

4/11/2006 01:34:00 AM  
Blogger OPFM Admin said...

Hello, we have just finished creating this free questions and answers forum for members of The Country Club Biz. Please check it out at Country Club Biz Forum

4/11/2006 01:58:00 AM  
Blogger OPFM Admin said...

Hello, we have just finished creating this free questions and answers forum for members of The Country Club Biz. Please check it out at Free Member's Forum

4/11/2006 12:38:00 PM  
Anonymous real estate marketing said...


california real estate Discover The 4 Step Secret To Becoming A Master Real Estate Professional
As a Real Estate Professional, ask yourself this question. . .what do you like best about your career. . .is it:

The "roller coaster" income cycles?
Wasting your weekend sitting at an open house where no one shows up?
What about manning a table at the mall or a home show for hours on end?

Chances are none of the above are the reason you became a Realtor in the first place.

Well, that's about to change. Learn how countless numbers of realtors are working less and making more.

How do they do it? Are they super duper closers? Surely they aren't any smarter than you?

Their common denominator is that they have a relentless, methodical, tireless home selling tool working for them alone.

Discover how they use that tool in 4 simple steps to generate sale after sale.

No Weekends! No Open Houses! No Floor Time!
Just make sale, after sale, after sale.
It's simple, once you have the tool.

Learn How To Get It Here. california real estate

4/17/2006 12:34:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Took a break from working on my own real estate sites ... and glad I did, because it let me spend some time reading your blog. Enjoyable and interesting. Thanks. Stop by my site if you can.

4/25/2006 04:24:00 PM  
Blogger James Baker said...

I was searching blogs,and I found your site.Please,
accept my congratulations for your excellent work!
If you have a moment, please visit my site:
credit center
It pretty much covers credit center related issues.
Have a good day!

5/11/2006 10:16:00 PM  
Blogger Joe Berenguer said...

I was searching blogs,and I found your site.Please,
accept my congratulations for your excellent work!
If you have a moment, please visit my site:
credit center
It pretty much covers credit center related issues.
Have a good day!

5/12/2006 03:33:00 AM  
Blogger Paul Adams said...

I was searching blogs,and I found your site.Please,
accept my congratulations for your excellent work!
If you have a moment, please visit my site:
credit center
It pretty much covers credit center related issues.
Have a good day!

5/12/2006 08:46:00 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home