Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Northern New Jersey Residential Inventory Update

GSMLS
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)

4/12 - 14,812
4/19 - 15,126 (2.1% Weekly Increase)

NJMLS
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)

4/12 - 7,259
4/19 - 7,429 (2.3% Weekly Increase)

MLSGuide
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)

4/12 - 2,225
4/19 - 2,263 (1.7% Weekly Increase)

138 Comments:

Anonymous Rich In NorthNJ said...

For the curious in Bergen County, here are the number of residential listings NOT including condos & co-ops from NJMLS

03/03 3,132
03/10 3,230
03/17 3,337
03/23 3,432
03/30 3,543
04/05 3,628
04/12 3,706
04/19 3,781

On 4/14 the inventory had dropped to 3,696. But it looks as if the slow down in inventory I saw last week has reversed itself!

Use the word, spread the word: Bubble.
To paraphrase Robert Shiller, perception alone can cause the market to turn.

4/19/2006 11:04:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Houses definately aren't moving as fast as they were last year. Some realtors said that the spring season would pick up business.

4/19/2006 11:05:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

grim how about a graph showing the weekly and/or monthly increases per listing system with quantity on the left axis and % increase on the right axis? would be a telling graph.

4/19/2006 11:19:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

North Jersey always sees sales pick up in the Spring. February is the lowest point of the year as far as closed sales goes. Even I would be concerned if sales didn't increase "in the Spring".

Sales will continue to increase until they hit their usual seasonal peak in June/July/August. Remember, these are closed sales, so the contract peak is seen around May/June. After that point we begin to decline until Febuary the next year (there is typically a slight bump in December as sellers and buyers want to close prior to year end).

The problem is we're quickly approaching the end of Spring, and still running at levels 10% or more under prior years.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

4/19/2006 11:22:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

More Houses for sale. Doesn't count the huge number of FSBO.

Housing Bust!

Booooooyaaaaaa!

Bob

4/19/2006 11:51:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BA BA BA BA BA BA BOYCOTT!!!

HOUSES....

ESCALATING INVENTORIES = MUCH LOWER PRICES.

4/19/2006 12:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BA BA BA BA BA BA BA BOYCOTT HOUSES

Bob

4/19/2006 12:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

booya?

if there is in fact a bubble and we're headed for a bust, I really don't see why this is a reason to celebrate.
will it not be devastating to the economy and if so, won't we ALL get affected? what am I missing?

4/19/2006 12:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why is it bad for home prices to go down 40-50%?
Why?

Many condos in early 1990's went down 50% and houses 25%+.

Not everyone is reliant on their house for survival. many own their houses outright and many have small mortgages. It is those 25% or so that bit off to much that are in trouble.
In the early 1990's the economy held up rather well considering the S&L bust and housing bust. I expect things to be a little worse this time due to the enormous amount of debt taken on by consumers.
Many that have lived within their means and saved will survive and flourish.
Those hotshots that live big but can't afford it are deadmeat.
Goodluck.

4/19/2006 12:57:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

i hope you all own gold

take your pick

gld
iau
or the common

gg gfi

4/19/2006 01:08:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Bubble Pop mentality goes mainstream:



Gallup Poll
April 19, 2006
Seven in 10 Consumers Expect Housing Bubble to Burst
http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=22468


And Jim Cramer was on Jay Leno this week saying the housing bubble has begun to burst, and that he feels sorry for people who got into real estate recently.

4/19/2006 01:13:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

7 in 10 say bubble.

Sentiment has definately shifted. No stopping the downward trend.

Denial turning to panic as sellers grasp reality. Realtors will change their tactics if they do not want to starve...pushing sellers to lower prices.

4/19/2006 01:29:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

7 in 10 say bubble.

Well....Almost....

The second line of the headline reads:
Still, only about 4 in 10 expect housing prices in "their" areas to remain the same or decline.

While prices in other markets are crazy, prices in _______ are clearly justified. It's different here because ______.

For us it's:
- Northern NJ
- we are protected by NYC bubblewrap

4/19/2006 01:40:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"The second line of the headline reads: Still, only about 4 in 10 expect housing prices in "their" areas to remain the same or decline."


Of course, it's called denial.

So the guy in NJ thinks the guy in PA will see a loss. And the guy in PA thinks the guy in NJ will see a loss.

They're both right.

4/19/2006 02:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

NYC Bubble rap burst in early 1990's. Please explain why it's different this time?

Prices are going lower whether you like it or not.

4/19/2006 02:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Remember quite clearly a friend of mine telling me how he bought a Co-op in 1988 and it dropped 50%. it took him over 10 years to be able to break even.

THAT'S RIGHT FOLKS MORE THAN 10 YEARS!
AND THIS HOUSING MARKET IS MUCH MORE BUBBLY THAN THE LAST ONE DUE TO THE EASY LAX CREATIVE LENDING STANDARDS.

4/19/2006 02:28:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I consider Jim Cramer as a contrarian indicator. If he says buy this stock I'd sell it. If he says there is a bursting RE bubble then I think its almost over.

Anyone who lives in NNJ or NYC lives in the center of the universe. People want to live here. There will always be a demand.

Will there be a slowdown? Yes. Will prices drop? Yes but I highly doubt 40%. Are interest rates still low? Yes, 6.3% for a 30yr last I checked. That's very low by historical standards. Will it continue to fuel the RE boom? Sure but not as nutty as before. Chances are that you'll see moderation in the RE market and prices come inline with realistic fundamentals. Unless everyone decides to move to Tulsa OK.

Some people will blow up because they lived too large.

Is there a bubble of bubble watchers and bloggers? Probably! :)

My 2 cents.

4/19/2006 02:28:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

jUST TO CLARIFY IT WAS A NYC CO-OP. AND IT DROPPED 50% IN VALUE HE SOLD IT IN 2000 FOR A SLIGHT PROFIT. 1988-2000 FOR A SMALL PROFIT.

IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN. YOU WANT TO RIDE DOWN REAL ESTATE AND HAVE TO WAIT 10 + YEARS TO BREAKEVEN THEN GO AHEAD PUT THE HEAD IN THE SAND AND BUY BUY BUY. 10 YEARS IS A LONG TIME TO WAIT.

4/19/2006 02:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why do you doubt prices will drop 40%?
They did in NJ and NY back in early 1990's.

Much more debt today than 15 years ago. Many more risky loans offered to fools today than ever before.

Denial can be painful.

4/19/2006 02:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Northern NJ is only minutes from NYC which is the greatest city in the world! Everyone wants to live in Northern NJ. House prices won't go down here.

4/19/2006 02:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think someone is trolling....

4/19/2006 02:45:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

The official blog estimate is a 30-35% decline in prices.

grim

4/19/2006 02:50:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

(http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/DN-Q&A_19bus.ART.State.E dition1.13656391.html)

4/19/2006 02:58:00 PM  
Blogger njresident286 said...

I think the 40% drop talk is misleading because some folks think that a house selling for 500k today will then drop to 300k.
Anothrer way of looking at is that it drops to 400k and stays there X number of years. By not getting more expensive, it is losing money in terms of relative inflation. Then looking back on the house you can say it dropped 40%.

I could be wrong on this, so please correct me if I am. But I thought in the 90's a lot of the % declines were not neccessarily actually money drops, but more in terms of houses not keeping up with inflation

4/19/2006 03:03:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"I consider Jim Cramer as a contrarian indicator. If he says buy this stock I'd sell it. If he says there is a bursting RE bubble then I think its almost over."


Jim Cramer's expertise is irrelevant to the point. Jay Leno introduced a "financial guru" to the public, who then said real estate is tanking.

The bubble pop message has hit the mainstream.

Gallup poll confirms it -- 70% of Americans expect the bubble to pop, do you think they'll be buying real estate anytime soon?

4/19/2006 03:07:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Northern NJ is only minutes from NYC which is the greatest city in the world! Everyone wants to live in Northern NJ. House prices won't go down here."


Was NYC in the same location when the Northern NJ real estate market tanked 15 years ago, and people were financially underwater for years?

4/19/2006 03:09:00 PM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

NYC-area will always be expensive relative to oklahoma, but that doesn't mean prices can't come down.

NYC was more expensive than oklahoma 5 yrs ago when prices here were less than half what they are now.

what has changed so much in the past 5 yrs to cause prices to double? I haven't yet come across a RE bull who can explain this to me.

4/19/2006 03:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

njresidence

PRICES REALLY DROPPED!

WHY IS THIS SO HARD TO BELIEVE?
IN THE LATE 1980'S-EARLY 1990'S HOUSING BUBBLE
PRICES GOT TO HIGH/OUT OF WACK AND THEY DROPPED AND CORRECTED IN PRICE.

NJ CONDOS WENT DOWN 50%

NYC CO-OPS WENT DOWN 50%

I KNOW PEOPLE THIS HAPPENED TO.

IF A CONDO WAS PRICED AT $225 3 YEARS AGO AND THEY WANT $500K NOW, YOU CALL THIS RATIONAL??????

SO IT'S OKAY TO GO UP 100% + BUT IT CAN'T GO DOWN TO CORRECT THE EXCESS?

ANYONE BUYING INTO YOUR CAN'T GO DOWN TALE ARE IN FOR SOME REAL MISERY.

4/19/2006 03:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The bubble pop message has hit the mainstream.

I seem to remember that back in late 90's to early 2000 the Dot.Com craze hit the mainstream. What did the stock market do after it lured mom and pop into investing in the can't lose Dot Com's? It crashed.

Now that the "bubble pop message" has hit the mainstream wouldn't it be ironic if the RE market decides to go up instead of bursting beacuse everyone who was waiting to buy decides to get in because prices have dropped?

Markets typically do the opposite what everyone thinks they will.

4/19/2006 03:24:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Markets typically do the opposite what everyone thinks they will."


Are you still holding onto that cisco stock at $20, waiting for it to hit $100 again?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CSCO&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

4/19/2006 03:33:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

See, that's the sticky thing with real estate declines. They are usually accompanied by a strict tightening of lending standards.

So even though people may want in, the lenders won't let them in, simply because they no longer qualify for a loan.

That is one of the reasons I've always preached about being a tightwad and saving every penny you can right now. 20-down might just become a common requirement again.

So while there might be "buyers" that want in, just how many of those will the system allow in.

So for those of you with minimal savings and poor credit that are hoping this crash will help you get into a home.. All I can say is you better get to work taking care of your debt and credit while trying to save up as much money as you can. If not, you might find yourself unable to purchase a home post crash. Not because you can't afford it, but because you can't get funding.

grim

4/19/2006 03:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

In early 1990's many many people could not refinance their homes becasue of price drops. They didn;t have enough equity to refinance as rates went lower!!!

When the bubble burst in early 1990's Mtg rates trended lower from about 9% to 6% and home prices still went down.

This Housing bubble is much worse than 15 years ago. How bad will it get? who knows, but we will find out soon enough. Be prepared by saving at least 20% down. Liquidity is gong to tighten and this free money ponsi scam is ending.

4/19/2006 03:58:00 PM  
Anonymous DvD said...

Grim, don't you think it would be interesting to take a look at the ratio (current inventory/all existing housing units) in certain areas, maybe even zipcodes? It seems to me that towns where 5% of all houses are "for sale" will suffer from bubble burst much more than those where 0.001% of houses are on the market. Is it possible to obtain such a statistics and identify those areas/towns?

4/19/2006 04:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can somebody help me here? Look at this house in crack town. I still cannot believe people are asking such insane prices for such junk. I have a 4 year college degree in accounting and have saved up a ton of cash and cash equivalents and can't even touch anything with a standard 30 year fixed rate mortgage with 20% down.

I probably should have just opted to work at Mc Donald's not that there's anything wrong with that.

You do however get a crack dealer on the corner. Location, location, location.

I feel like I'm going nuts. Up is down, left is right, buy high sell low.

KEANSBURG, NJ 07734
MLS ID#: 10061953
$240,000
2 Bed, 1 Bath

4/19/2006 04:03:00 PM  
Blogger delford said...

dvd: when the market in north Jersey crashed last time, all areas went down, good bad,and indifferent if you will.

Yes some areas went down more then others, but they all went down substanially. What will happen in the less desireable area, is that some people will be trapped.

They may want to sell to upgrade schools lower taxes, but will not be able to move, as there will be no demand. It is happening right now in some Bergen Co towns. Others who cannot afford to saty whether they are in a good or bad town, will simply be foreclosed on.

The other areas that will get hurt, are the houses built in bad locations, and again good, bad or indifferent towns. Such examples would be houses backing up to Rt 208, and 17, 80 etc.

Two prsonal favorites of mine are two McMansions, one next to a Burger King, and the other next to a gas station, and lets not forget all those busy streets, and busy county roads where backing out of your drive way could be considered an act of suicide. It is all going down, no area is immune. It is that simple.

4/19/2006 04:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

PRICES WILL DROP OVER 90% WITHIN 10
YEARS!! Face it now or face it later, the real killer here is that WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF CHEAP OIL REAL FAST!! If the NNJ home you
are looking at has a furnace - then DON'T BID ON IT. If it's in a place that requires a car to get there or to do anything while living there then FORGET-ABOUT-IT!
This whole area will go down the proverbial gurgler because it's hopelessly dependent on copius amounts of cheap oil which is rapidly running out. Within 10
years the NNJ burbs will be well on its way to being an unihabitable
wasteland where abandoned homes and buildings will be mined for copper and other scrap. And that's the optimistic scenario folks!

4/19/2006 04:27:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Housing is DOOMED!

Might as well walk away Or sell as fast as you can at any price.
Just get out before it is to late!

4/19/2006 04:36:00 PM  
Blogger Skeptic said...

I'm very skeptical about this whole "bubble talk". I bought my house in Chester-Mendham area in 2000. At that time, I enjoyed NORMAL market conditions: it took me eight months to find the right house and six months to negotiate the price. All those months, the house I currently own was sitting on the market. I had to put 25% down in order to take a jumbo (almost 500K) mortgage at 8%. And NOBODY called that market a "bubble" although it was much more slow than now, and the interest rates and the lending standards were much higher. In addition, the new construction in our area is completely prohibited due to the Highland Protection law. The newly built houses that are coming to the market now are the last ones; there won't be any new subdivisions here, and therefore no competition between the new construction and the existing houses. Do all those crazy price increases we saw last year come to an end? Definitely. Do I expect prices to drop below 2004 level? Absolutely not. In worst case scenario, my neighbors and I will see a correction of about 10%. Do you really believe we would spend about the same money on realtors' commission, moving expenses, and lost time trying to sell our houses? Come on, here it's only realtors and builders that are scared now. If you are really looking for the bubble, go south :)

4/19/2006 04:39:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"PRICES WILL DROP OVER 90% WITHIN 10 YEARS!!"


Is this poster a ®ealtor sock puppet or what?

4/19/2006 04:43:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

if you really want a laugh go to the for sale by owner web site and check out the new jersey prices.

these people are in a dream world.

skepic,, your in a world of you own.

4/19/2006 04:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chester-mendham going be toast like every other area. bring your snoot down.

4/19/2006 05:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I expect to see quite a few foreclosures in these so called upper areas.
Watch and learn boy.

4/19/2006 05:08:00 PM  
Blogger Skeptic said...

Yeah, I'm "in the world of my own". I came to NJ in '92 and was renting for 8 years until I was able to buy my "dream house". I'll sell it only if I need to move out of state. And my neighbors are the same: they have been living here for 20-30-50 years. People in these two towns sell for NORMAL reasons (job transfer, etc.), not because the hungry realtors tell them so.

4/19/2006 05:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes that's right many have been living in their houses for 20-3-40 years and many could not afford the house they live. they have been beneficiaries of a long-term bubble. However the bubble is vursting now so those big paper gains are starting to evaporate.

4/19/2006 05:20:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

skepic you sound bitter..

come down off the horse,,

what do you think your the only one
who ever lived in a hot,,, high priced town..

4/19/2006 05:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Somehow it always seems that it can't happen in my town.....

4/19/2006 05:25:00 PM  
Blogger DebtVulture said...

Skeptic,

I know someone who bought a nice house in Basking Ridge - another nice town not far from you - in 1988 right before a crash. He estimates that his house wasn't worth what he paid for it until 2000. Yep, that is 12 years.

4/19/2006 05:27:00 PM  
Blogger Skeptic said...

To anon at 6:20PM:
If the owner has been living in his house for 20-30 years, his mortgage should be paid off by now. How come he can't afford it?

4/19/2006 05:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So first Summit won't be affected, now Mendham, what's next? I say Camden, after all it can only go up!

4/19/2006 05:31:00 PM  
Blogger NJGal said...

"And my neighbors are the same: they have been living here for 20-30-50 years."

Think about that for a second skeptic - many people who have been in a house that long will be retiring, and with my own parents and their friends nearing retirement age, I've never heard one of them say, "Gee, I hope to keep this 3500 sq. ft. home til I'm 90!" There is a large population of baby boomers around here, and while there are also lots of echo boomers, there certainly aren't enough to scoop up the supply of homes that will be sold by the boomers, and certainly not at the prices now.

Also, think of these - many of the echo boomers seem to be trending towards urban living, rejecting the suburban lifestyle (I'm not one of them, but to each his own). When they decide to crowd into cities, what happens to the suburban housing stock?

4/19/2006 05:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

1) Neither Chester nor Mendham are in the Highlands Preservation area. So your basic premise is incorrect.

2) The Highlands act does not ban all development, it just it makes it harder and there are provisions for transfers of rights.

Looking on GSMLS, I see 83 houses for sale in Mendham township. That doesnt' count other MLSes or FSBOs. Given the very small population of the town, thats a pretty large number.

4/19/2006 05:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with Skeptic, no bubble for the nicer towns. You want an explanation for 100% rise in prices over 5 years. Change in perception -
1) people want to live near NY,
2)people's tolerance for commuting longer distances is growing so that Mendham and Chester aren't bad commutes
3) More families operate on two incomes, and those who didn't were/are forced to in order to afford housing
4) isn't it possible that houses were undrevalued 5 years ago
5) the shady credit you all refer to just opened up the market to more people - now the less affluent can buy as well, and if they bought early, then they have a nice cushion of equity - I don't think the newer lending practices will cause the market to crash, I think they fundamentally changed the market by creating demand across a broader demographic

No bubble, no burst, just a slight dip or a leveling off. I've said it before and I'll say it again. You want to live in NNJ, turn out those pockets and get used to the idea of housing taking up 40-50% of your income. If you want to be here, compete with the other 22 million who want the same thing.

4/19/2006 05:38:00 PM  
Blogger Skeptic said...

If you need a new car and can afford it, you just go ahead and buy a new car. You don't worry if it's worth 90% of what you just paid to the dealer a minute after you took it out of the dealership. You just enjoy it. Are the houses different?

4/19/2006 05:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Boomers going to be stuck holding the bag trying to offload their McMansions and high fixed cost. Good luck nobody going to want 'em.

4/19/2006 05:43:00 PM  
Blogger NJGal said...

"Change in perception -
1) people want to live near NY, PEOPLE HAVE ALWAYS WANTED TO LIVE NEAR NYC
2)people's tolerance for commuting longer distances is growing so that Mendham and Chester aren't bad commutes - BUT IF THIS IS TRUE, AND PRICES SHOULD COME DOWN CLOSER TO NYC, THOSE TOWNS WILL COME DOWN TOO
3) More families operate on two incomes, and those who didn't were/are forced to in order to afford housing - THEY DID 5 YEARS AGO AS WELL. AND THIS IS A GOOD THING BECAUSE...? WHERE ARE THE FUNDAMENTALS?
4) isn't it possible that houses were undrevalued 5 years ago - MAYBE BUT NOT THAT UNDERVALUED - THERE ARE NO FUNDAMENTALS INDICATING THAT IS THE CASE
5) the shady credit you all refer to just opened up the market to more people - now the less affluent can buy as well, and if they bought early, then they have a nice cushion of equity" - THESE PEOPLE DIDN'T BUY EARLY BECAUSE THESE CRAZY LOANS WEREN'T AS COMMON UNTIL THE PRICES BECAME SO INSANE. AND IF YOU CAN'T AFFORD A PLACE WITH NORMAL LOANS, YOU CAN'T AFFORD IT.

None of your statements really make much sense to me. There's not much behind them.

4/19/2006 05:43:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...


1) people want to live near NY,


I can see why 911 made New York much more attactive in the last 5 years.


2)people's tolerance for commuting longer distances is growing so that Mendham and Chester aren't bad commutes


Maybe, but traffic is increasing. Commutes are getting much harder anyway.


3) More families operate on two incomes, and those who didn't were/are forced to in order to afford housing


That hasn't changed much in the last 5 years.


4) isn't it possible that houses were undrevalued 5 years ago


After 5 years of growth from 1995-2000 ? Unlikely, especially given that the economy took a downturn after that.


5) the shady credit you all refer to just opened up the market to more people - now the less affluent can buy as well, and if they bought early, then they have a nice cushion of equity -


Historically, loose credit standards are one of the major cause of any bubble. And not paying attention to risk when doing risk return calculations has historically led to collapses.

Finally, what about people who didn't buy "early" ? Who's going to create demand with higher interest rates ?

4/19/2006 05:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You don't worry if it's worth 90%less once off the lot. I can assure you if this was the case New car sales would come ta a complete halt.

That was on of the most idiotic stamements i have ever heard. i know people are being fools buying houses at these obscene insulting prices but to say someone would still buy a car if it drops 90% once off the lot is dumb.

4/19/2006 05:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Psychology will kill this housing market and it is shifting negative.

4/19/2006 05:48:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...


If you need a new car and can afford it, you just go ahead and buy a new car. You don't worry if it's worth 90% of what you just paid to the dealer a minute after you took it out of the dealership. You just enjoy it. Are the houses different?


Well, yes, because people don't spend their time tracking their car prices and taking equity out of their cars. Nor do they speculate with cars (excluding some classic or collectors item cars).

And if you can't afford it or have to resort to a funny loan to get your car, then you shouldn't get it in the first place.

4/19/2006 05:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not much behind them? Of course not, their just thoughts. I just don't think you can point to what happened in the late eighties and early nineties and expect a guarnteed similar scenario. My point is that there are some intangibles that can't be quantified. I could be wrong, I'm no economiologist (joke), but aren't a lot of areas of economics perplexing right now? The stock market jumps after the Fed has a meeting and says the same stuff its been saying for months. The fed raises rates and yet mortgage rates continue to hover. Economics is not an exact science, so when people have the opinion that the housing market in the area will level off over a longer period rather than crash, what's the harm.

Again, you have to pay to play. You wanna be in NJ, turn out those pockets.

4/19/2006 05:52:00 PM  
Blogger Skeptic said...

to anon at 6:46 PM:

I said 90% OF what you paid, not 90% LESS. That means 10% less than original price. One of us has to go back to school :)

4/19/2006 05:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great blog. Any thoughts on whether the choice, best towns along the Midtown Direct corridor, such as Summit, Chatham, Madison, Short Hills, etc., will remain unaffected regardless of whether the bubble bursts

4/19/2006 06:00:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I love your blog and feel the same as most of you regarding the bubble, however i disagree with your takes on gold, silver, oil etc.

Take the metals (commodities) markets.... much of the run up in metals is a direct result of the huge demand for the stuff from the global real estate boom. As this demand cools (ie when the real estate bubble bursts) the metals markets (im thinking copper) may very well tank as well - no demand.

Take oil, ya it hit 71 today and yea there is terrosim scare, and yea we will run out in about 80 years etc, etc etc. However, when oil gets this high, it now becomes very profitable to invest in alternative energy... corn, beans, coal, wind, nuclear, hell even water... thats right, another year or two of price levels like this, you will really see alternatives hit the market for good. Short term, there might be issues, but in the long term -- oil at 70 will actually expediate alternative fuels and reduce our dependecey which is a good thing....

You Gold buyers out there... I suggest you read the piece from Chip Hanlon on thestreet.com (its free

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/activetraderupdate/10280198.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Gold and silver etc, is much much different from stocks. If you have no experience in the commodities and metals game, i very stronggly caution you... fundamentals mean nothing, earning mean nothing... it is truly like taking your turn on the black jack table. The story sounds good, but be very careful.

Finally, everyone talking about China taking over the world and our dollar going down... I say, blah blah blah.... if Americans cant spend money then the world is screwed.... we are the only idiots out there who spend like children. China knows this and so does every other country. We dont spend, they dont sell thier goods. Ya, we will hear the doom and gloom stories, but if you really think about it... As goes the US, goes the world.... SO I am not worried - long term (2-3 years out) about this argument.

My 2 cents....

4/19/2006 06:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What we are seeing in the market is the death of the RE Bull and the birth of the RE Bubble Bull!

Booo Yah!

4/19/2006 06:57:00 PM  
Blogger Skeptic said...

Anonymous (at 6:35 PM)said...
1) Neither Chester nor Mendham are in the Highlands Preservation area. So your basic premise is incorrect.

---> Check the map at http://www.state.nj.us/njhighlands/actmaps/maps/highlands_map.pdf

You'll see that Chester is in the Core Area (one house per 88 acres MINIMUM), and the Mendhams are in the Planning area.

2) The Highlands act does not ban all development, it just it makes it harder and there are provisions for transfers of rights.

---> Yeah, so MUCH harder that it's almost impossible (money spent on lawyers would be much greater than any potential profit from a subdivision).

3) Looking on GSMLS, I see 83 houses for sale in Mendham township. That doesnt' count other MLSes or FSBOs. Given the very small population of the town, thats a pretty large number.

---> I didn't follow the Mendham's RE market closely, but I've been watching the one in Chester township for more than a year. My observation: the median listing price here for a house with at least 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms a year ago was around $1M. Now it's $1.25M. So, is the 25% increase in the ASKING price for a HOUSE normal? I'd say a 5-10% annual increase for a house here is OK, anything above it is a bubble. So, yes, the bubble exists, but only in the minds of the sellers. Burst it as much as you want :)

4/19/2006 07:10:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

booya?

if there is in fact a bubble and we're headed for a bust, I really don't see why this is a reason to celebrate.
will it not be devastating to the economy and if so, won't we ALL get affected? what am I missing?


This is exactly my postion. Why are some of the posters here hoping for a market collapse? Most here seem to be almost giddy in anticipation of a collapse. There was one poster here who even suggested that everyone here do everything they can to make sure that real estate falls.

You can't call yourself an American wish something bad for your country and your fellow citizens.

4/19/2006 07:25:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

"No bubble, no burst, just a slight dip or a leveling off. I've said it before and I'll say it again. You want to live in NNJ, turn out those pockets and get used to the idea of housing taking up 40-50% of your income. If you want to be here, compete with the other 22 million who want the same thing."

Your post and Skeptic's were really refreshing--almost like finding an oasis on a desert of gloom and doom. I think the federal and the media are doing their level best to destroy real estate.

You both seem to believe in America's dynamic economy and its ability to surmount any obstacle. There are people in high places that are against this idea and as far as I'm concerned they're doing this country great harm.

4/19/2006 07:34:00 PM  
Blogger Skeptic said...

To REINVESTOR101:

Don't you see that all those "booyaas" come from the people that have been priced out of the current housing market? Once they can afford a house, they will change the tune :)

4/19/2006 07:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

reinvestor101: Flippers/speculators/homeowners are greedy SOB's. It's their fault for pushing prices sky high. Everyone is greedy and people are gonna get burned! Too much debt! I hope for a 50% corection!

Boooyah! Supply and Demand, thats American Capitialism at work!

4/19/2006 07:39:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

Don't you see that all those "booyaas" come from the people that have been priced out of the current housing market? Once they can afford a house, they will change the tune :)

Skeptic, I agree totally. Some of these people are full of resentment. I can see how perturbed some of them got when you mentioned your real estate situation. I've also been attacked here for not participating in the "amen corner" and having the nerve to express a different opinion.

4/19/2006 07:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Great blog. Any thoughts on whether the choice, best towns along the Midtown Direct corridor, such as Summit, Chatham, Madison, Short Hills, etc., will remain unaffected regardless of whether the bubble bursts"


Every house in NJ and across the nation will lose value, except of course for the towns along the Midtown Direct corridor.

The massive real estate decline 15 years ago can never happen again, and especially to the towns along the Midtown Direct corridor.

4/19/2006 07:45:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

>>You want an explanation for 100% rise in prices over 5 years. Change in perception -

no this time it really really is different! it's called credit bubble my friend. read up on it.

4/19/2006 07:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Real estate only goes up! Now is the time to buy cisco stock, it will go back to $100 just like in 2001, trust me!

4/19/2006 07:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Skeptic & Reinvestor 101, what did you expect posting on a housing bubble opinions contrary to the prevailing consensus?

4/19/2006 07:55:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

The U.S. is going to be fine, because as a country we are smart and we break our a--es.

Yeah we have problems, but we also have a tremendous amount of vision, ambition, and pride.

In the worst times, this country is resilient. Don't bet on real estate, but don't bet against us either.

chicago

4/19/2006 08:04:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Every time I see the interest payment added to my bank account at the end of each month, because I haven't bought a house over-priced by 100%, I say Boooyaaaah!

How can you beat having a housing cost of practically $0? Boooyaaaah!

And when I buy a foreclosure property in 18 months, or swoop down on some flipper sitting $200K underwater and pay cash for the property, I'll say Boooyaaaah!

4/19/2006 08:09:00 PM  
Blogger Skeptic said...

To anon at 8:39 PM:
Thank you, yow you finally said it: My fellow homeowners and I are the same "greedy SOBs" as flippers/speculators.

You should have taken your "Boooyah!" to our former governor - it was his job to create enough affordable housing for people like you. By the way, it's not too late to write to the new one: "Dear Governor, thanks to your predecessor, I work hard and can't afford a decent house in NJ. Boooyah to you!"
I'm sure he'll listen.

4/19/2006 08:09:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Great blog. Any thoughts on whether the choice, best towns along the Midtown Direct corridor, such as Summit, Chatham, Madison, Short Hills, etc., will remain unaffected regardless of whether the bubble bursts"

I wouldn't say unaffected, but, the value in these Midtown Direct towns is likely to hold better than in the lesser towns. Not only do you have the fantastic commute to the City but many other attributes: great schools, town services, nonexistent crime, etc. Rarely do you find all of these attributes in one place in NJ. At the end of the day, places like Summit and Chatham are where most people would want to raise their families (if they could afford it-- but how many of us can) and that won't change. The demand will be there, although sellers wont get what they could have gotten during the bubble years (slightly less).

4/19/2006 08:16:00 PM  
Blogger Skeptic said...

To anon at 8:55:
Skeptic & Reinvestor 101, what did you expect posting on a housing bubble opinions contrary to the prevailing consensus?

I'm a contrarian by nature :)

I am not disputing the existence of the RE bubble in NJ. However, I don't expect a massive sell-off in the area where I live - so many people here have only a fraction of their wealth in their house. I think that the current sellers have unreasonable expectations based on last year's price increases. Once they reduce the asking price to within 5% of last year's level (+/-), the inventory backlog should go away (IMHO). The problem with this approach is that there are builders/investors who entered the "game" last year, at the very peak of it, who will suffer from the correction.

4/19/2006 08:38:00 PM  
Anonymous D Lereah said...

And best yet, in 5 years prices in Summit and Chatham will be 100% higher than now! Buy now before you're priced out forever!

That's right, in 5 years this house will cost $1,000,000:

http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1057279476

It's only natural, it has a good commute with good schools!

Don't wait! Ask your boss for a raise, and buy now!

4/19/2006 08:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To Anon at 9:09 p.m.

Aaaaaamen!!! Booooyah right back at cha..LOL

4/19/2006 08:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Housing Bust!

Ba ba ba ba ba ba BOYCOTT Houses!

Soaring inventories = Bad news for sellers
Watch the FSBO signs up all over the place. Deny deny deny!!!
Hehehhee

Booooyaaaaa

Bob

4/19/2006 08:45:00 PM  
Blogger Skeptic said...

to anon at 9:16 PM:
At the end of the day, places like Summit and Chatham are where most people would want to raise their families (if they could afford it-- but how many of us can) and that won't change. The demand will be there, although sellers wont get what they could have gotten during the bubble years (slightly less).

It looks like you and I independently have come to same conclusion.

4/19/2006 08:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Sales Decline Twelve Straight Months In Bay Area"
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=521


"Say Farewell To The Housing Boom On Long Island"
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=512


"Condo Market Has 'Totally Collapsed' In Naples"
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=511


"Record Inventories Discourage New Projects"
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=510

4/19/2006 08:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...



You'll see that Chester is in the Core Area (one house per 88 acres MINIMUM), and the Mendhams are in the Planning area.


Chester is partially in the preservation area. Not fully, and the mendhams are not at all.

http://www.state.nj.us/dep/highlands/municipalities.htm

Even in the core area some development is allowed, and its definitely not one home per 88 acres, Where did you get that ?


Yeah, so MUCH harder that it's almost impossible (money spent on lawyers would be much greater than any potential profit from a subdivision)


Not correct at all. And even in the preservation area, some development is possible, its mostly a matter of development alongside water. Plus, there will almost certainly be TDRs (transfer of development rights). If you're relying on this act to preserve your property value, I think you're going to be disappointed.


I didn't follow the Mendham's RE market closely, but I've been watching the one in Chester township for more than a year


I could do the same inventory check for Chester. In any case, Mendham has a huge amount of inventory for such a tiny town. That will put pressure on prices.

4/19/2006 08:52:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Realtors will be pounding the table for sellers to chop prices.

Insulting prices + higher interest rates = No buyers

4/19/2006 08:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


You can't call yourself an American wish something bad for your country and your fellow citizens


The RE boom has made housing unaffordable for a large number of people. It has made people take on debt they can barely shoulder. It has led to overinvestment in housing instead of in truly productive assets. It has most definitely not helped my fellow citizens.

Looks like someone is leveraged to the @ss and is dreading the fall to come.

4/19/2006 08:55:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...


wouldn't say unaffected, but, the value in these Midtown Direct towns is likely to hold better than in the lesser towns. Not only do you have the fantastic commute to the City but many other attributes: great schools, town services, nonexistent crime, etc. Rarely do you find all of these attributes in one place in NJ.


There are many, many NJ towns that meet these features -- Bergen county towns like Alpine, Englewood Cliffs, Tenafly, Demarest, Saddle River Essex county towns like Essex Fells, Milburn, North and West Caldwell, Roseland, Morris county towns like Mendham, Florham Park, Montville, Union county towns like Mountainside, Summit, Berkeley Heights, Somerset county towns like Warren, Watchung, basking Ridge, other towns like Mountain Lakes, Princeton etc. etc.

We keep on hearing about good towns, and great towns, but there are a lot of those in NJ. And in many cases, a lot of appreciation is already priced in.

4/19/2006 09:00:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Insulting prices + higher interest rates = No buyers



Insulting prices - exactly!

4/19/2006 09:08:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

"Housing Bust!

Ba ba ba ba ba ba BOYCOTT Houses!

Soaring inventories = Bad news for sellers Watch the FSBO signs up all over the place. Deny deny deny!!!Hehehhee Booooyaaaaa

Bob"


Another one trying to be "cute". I see you hate this country so much that you want to cheerlead in your hope that real estate markets fall. Do you realize that you have much in leaque with this nation's enemies?

You probably don't care, but some of us do. Since you don't like it here, perhaps you might be better off living in Iran, China, Russia or North Korea. A few weeks there, and you'll be singing this country's praises rather than hoping for its downfall. A few weeks living without the freedoms you take for granted here would do a lot of you some good.

4/19/2006 09:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Booyaa Bob, you're an ass. Realtors will not be "pounding the tables" of THEIR clients.

And this booyaa crap is old.


Reinvestor101, you're an ass too.
Do you always wrap yourself in a flag when someone disagrees with you?
Are ya gonna call me a commie now?

4/19/2006 09:31:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

4/19/2006 09:36:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Skeptic said "And my neighbors are the same: they have been living here for 20-30-50 years."

Okay, maybe on your street, but this isn't true overall. NJ has a strong trend of out-migration. Retired people are moving out to escape high property taxes and energy costs. Younger families are leaving due to housing affordability.

So, where are the new buyers going to come from? Even starter homes in NNJ are unnaffordable to most first time buyers. Without buyers for starter homes, how are current owners of starter homes going to trade up? For prices to even remain stable, you need new buyers.

Anyway, my wife and I are going to check out Raleigh/Cary in 2 weeks. She was against it, but had a change of heart when she started going to open houses around here.

4/19/2006 09:37:00 PM  
Blogger Skeptic said...

To anon at 9:52 PM:
Even in the core area some development is allowed, and its definitely not one home per 88 acres, Where did you get that ?

From here: http://www.nj.gov/dep/rules/adoptions/njac7_38_20050509.pdf

On page 63: For a single-family home, the applicant proposes no more than one septic system for each 88 acres of land

And even in the preservation area, some development is possible, its mostly a matter of development alongside water

Chester township sits on the water aquifer that supplies half of the state with fresh water: Raritan river starts here. Hence the Highlands Act.

Same thing goes about anything else that I said regarding the Highland act: I live here, in the conservation area, I have spoken to the EPA guys who oversee the compliance, I know my stuff. I’m not just a homeowner, I’m a landowner as well. (Does this make me a double SOB to the Booyaah guys?)

Just read all 241 pages as well as about the same number of pages from the new rules proposed in December. All that info is available on the Highlands Council site.
Have fun :)

4/19/2006 09:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Anyway, my wife and I are going to check out Raleigh/Cary in 2 weeks."


Please let us know how it goes, you're not the only one considering such a move out of NJ.

Let "reinvestor101" spend a million bucks for a shack that needs massive repairs.

4/19/2006 09:44:00 PM  
Blogger Skeptic said...

The end of the URL was cut off. It should read
njac7_38_20050509.pdf

4/19/2006 09:44:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

What a thread!

4/19/2006 09:46:00 PM  
Blogger Skeptic said...

To grim:
What a host! Thanks for having us here.
Good night!

4/19/2006 09:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey, do you think "skep-tic" will come in tomorrow and have a duel with "skeptic"?

4/19/2006 09:52:00 PM  
Blogger annamelbourne said...

"Yeah, I'm "in the world of my own". I came to NJ in '92 and was renting for 8 years until I was able to buy my "dream house". I'll sell it only if I need to move out of state. And my neighbors are the same: they have been living here for 20-30-50 years."

Not all your neighbors are the same. I work with a woman who bought a house in Mendham four years ago. Two years later, unable to afford the payments, she refinanced with a designer mortgage, which has a balloon payment due seven years out. When I asked her what she would do in seven years, she said, "If I can't pay it, I'll sell the house." Good luck to her.

4/19/2006 09:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

REINVESTOR101
Really, enough of the mom and apple pie flag waving already. No one here is anti-American.

The RE bubble is BAD for America. The sooner we put it behind us, the sooner we can apply our great nation’s resources to investing in real economic growth, instead of flipping houses with granite countertops and stainless steel refrigerators.

And what happens when our younger soldiers serving in Iraq return home and want to start families? What do we say to them? “Sorry, thanks for your service, but you’ve been priced out of the market…should have stayed home and became an RE investor”?

BTW. If you really want to be an American, don't buy RE using a mortgage. Much of the cheap money is coming from China.

4/19/2006 09:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

""If I can't pay it, I'll sell the house."

And when the dust settles form this bursting bubble, she'll be selling that house at a substantial loss.

4/19/2006 09:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Rich In NorthNJ said...

Um... yea, I couldn't get over the amount of inventory in Bergen County either.

4/19/2006 10:06:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

"Anyway, my wife and I are going to check out Raleigh/Cary in 2 weeks."
Please let us know how it goes, you're not the only one considering such a move out of NJ.

Will do.

Funny thing, an RE agent (seemed nice actually) called my wife tonight because she visited an open house last week. My wife said we are really not in the market now and may be considering a move to Raleigh. She said that she has lost a number of clients who searched NNJ and decided to leave the area. She then admitted that she was considering such a move because she was priced out. She left off by saying that if we do decide to stay, there are “tons of houses coming on the market now”.

4/19/2006 10:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

My country tis of thee
sweet land of usury
of thee I sing
Land where my ARM adusts,
Land where my bubble busts,
I should've learned not to trust
Sirens of real-tee

4/19/2006 10:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anonymous 11:29 PM

Classic!!!

bobby

4/19/2006 10:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


For a single-family home, the applicant proposes no more than one septic system for each 88 acres of land


That is only for lots where certain conditions hold (more than half the lot is forested) and its only for septic systems, not for other waste water disposal systems and there are exceptions as well. Its a far cry from your original claim that only 88 acre lots were allowed.


Same thing goes about anything else that I said regarding the Highland act: I live here, in the conservation area, I have spoken to the EPA guys who oversee the compliance, I know my stuff


You haven't really shown that with your inaccurate statements so far.

Every town has some reason why prices are immune from dropping. But every area went down during the last showdown. THis will be no different.

4/19/2006 11:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why are you guys so concerned with where houses aren't built yet, there is exploding inventory of existing homes.

There are 18,907 homes for sale in Northern NJ (see post 1 and 2) and climbing every day as buyers refuse to buy into the real estate ponzi scheme.

4/19/2006 11:12:00 PM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

Reinvest101, I've said it before and I'll say it again: you would be much better received on this blog if your posts were based less on emotion and more on data.

Your tendency to label anyone who supports the idea of a housing bubble as "anti-American" is insulting and inflamatory and I for one will be the first to suggest that if you can't refrain from this type of reactionary rhetoric that you not post on this blog. There are plenty of places where you can find people who agree with you--most of the mainstream media denies the existence of a housing bubble, some recent examples notwithstanding.

The fact that you target posters like "Booyaaaah Bob" supports my assertion that you gravitate toward the emotional. I don't see you quibbling with posts by ChicagoFinance, MetroPlexual, RentingInNJ, Grim and others who support their posts with data and are well thought-through.

I think it's fair to say that many on this blog want to see a housing market correction. But I don't think any of us want to see people go to financial ruin. This is pure business. In my case, the only way I will be able to own a home is if the market corrects to reflect fundamentals. The fact that some of these people may have made bad finanical decisions and may ultimately suffer severe consequences isn't anyone's problem but their's.

4/19/2006 11:27:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Phoenix inventory exploding at 40,000 homes for sale and climbing -- no bubble here!

Buy now, before it's too late! Being a bagholder is a good thing!


7/20/2005 10,748
7/31/2005 11,609

8/1/2005 11,599
8/31/2005 15,099

9/1/2005 15,063
9/30/2005 19,192

10/1/2005 19,333
10/31/2005 23,790

11/1/2005 23,601
11/30/2005 26,797

12/1/2005 26,792
12/31/2005 26,497

1/1/2006 26,462
1/31/2006 32,563

2/1/2006 32,684
2/28/2006 36,174

3/1/2006 36,389
3/6/2006 37,217



Northern NJ catching up at 18,907 homes on the market!

4/19/2006 11:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Looking said...

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/18/
real_estate/agents_bearish_in_blogs
/index.htm

Real estate insiders go bearish in blogs

In mostly anonymous postings, agents are reporting big problems in the markets.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
April 18, 2006: 9:57 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - If the secret worries of real estate professionals are any indication, home prices could be heading for a swoon.

When Brad Inman of Inman News, which tracks the real estate industry and is widely read by industry insiders, recently gave real estate agents the opportunity to blog about market conditions, they almost uniformly described them as bad – and getting worse.

"Normally, brokers and agents tend to sugarcoat the news; they don't want to affect consumer confidence," says Inman. "By letting them post anonymously, we gave them a way to really share their thoughts."

Most responded with tales of high inventories, slow sales and languishing prices.

Here's a sampling of their comments:

"Portland, Oregon is mixed . . . more inventory, sitting longer. . . . Sellers no longer king." Posted by anonymous.

"Minneapolis/St.Paul . . . 15 houses per buyer. If we had buyers. Huge inventory in every price range. More foreclosure properties coming on daily." Posted by anonymous.

"East Central Florida Coastal area inventories up four times year to year and sales down 75%." Posted by Ramon Rivera (Not all bloggers craved anonymity).

"Some Realtors, Mortgage Brokers & some clients have been more testy than in months previous. Something is in the air." Posted by S. Crowe.

"Northern Ca. Let's not beat around the bush here. There is a slow down!! Home prices are not going up. Sales are down." Posted by anonymous.

4/19/2006 11:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

New York Population Loss Is Linked to Cost of Housing

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/20/us/20census.html

4/20/2006 12:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Morris housing market cools off"
http://www.dailyrecord.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060409/COLUMNISTS04/604090328/1103/COLUMNISTS

4/20/2006 12:19:00 AM  
Anonymous Looking said...

Seven in 10 Consumers Expect Housing Bubble to Burst

Still, only about 4 in 10 expect housing prices in their areas to remain the same or decline

by Dennis Jacobe

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ

National Housing Bubble
--
Increasing mortgage rates and a growing inventory of unsold homes likely has many U.S. consumers wondering about whether the sharp increase in housing prices over recent years -- the "housing bubble" -- will burst at some point during the coming year. Seventy-one percent of consumers believe it is very likely (24%) or somewhat likely (47%) that housing prices will collapse in housing markets across the nation as a whole within the next year, according to the April Experian/Gallup Personal Credit Index survey.

Local Housing Bubble

Consumers are far less pessimistic when it comes to their local housing markets. Only 32% of consumers think it is very likely (7%) or somewhat likely (25%) that their local areas will experience a housing bubble in the next year. For that matter, 28% of consumers say such an eventuality is not at all likely.

4/20/2006 12:25:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gallup Poll: Seven in 10 Consumers Expect Housing Bubble to Burst

The public is finally starting to see that houses priced at 10 times income, and doubling in value every 4 years, is nothing but a speculative bubble like the dotcom stocks which vaporized trillions of $$ in wealth.

Sell, sell, sell -- if you can, with inventory approaching 20,000 homes in Northern NJ alone.

Don't hold on all the way down, if you can't afford to be underwater on your mortgage for the next 8-10 years.

Get out now before your ARM resets, and you can't afford the skyrocketing payments, and can't bail out by selling when no buyers exist.

For if you ride it all the way down, and the balooning mortgage payments become too much later on, those waiting in the wings with cash will be on the courthouse steps to buy your house at pennies on the dollar.

http://www.foreclosure.com/state/nj.html

NJ - State Info
Updated: 4/20/06 12:32 AM
Foreclosures: 403
Preforeclosures: 1,533
Bankruptcies: 7,743

4/20/2006 12:46:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

i get the daily listings for the top towns and in the last week i've seen quite a number of properties coming on the market. personally i expected listings to start dying down as the 'spring' peak season should be winding down. silly me. just the past 2 days alone i've seen 7 new listings in westfield and 7 in chatham in the $400-$700k range.

as we've already seen price reductions pretty widespread they have to start building more as inventory continues to increase. seems all downhill from here until we hit a point where demand will sop up supply.

4/20/2006 05:03:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have seen a number of foreclosures over the million dollar range.

Don't buy in that the so called upper areas are immune to a dramatic price decline.

Watch.

4/20/2006 07:06:00 AM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...

When is the spring buying season normally supposed to end ? Isit the end of april or is it may ?

4/20/2006 07:13:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It sure seems like an artic freeze now. What spring selling season.

eeeeehhhhhh

4/20/2006 07:14:00 AM  
Blogger Richie said...

No place is immune to a correction. Think of all the people that "HAD" to live in these so-called prestigious areas for the schools, location, etc. Many of them in went in over their head to live in homes they may not be able to afford.

Many of them were possibly banking on the "2 year pump & dump" where they expected their house to rise in value over 2 years, and cash out without paying taxes.

If that's the case; quick sale or foreclosure.

-Richie

4/20/2006 07:16:00 AM  
Blogger DebtVulture said...

Richie,

What do you think is happening to Chatham? I've seen inventories on realtor.com doubling since the end of last year. Everyone seems to want to cash out.

Thanks

4/20/2006 07:33:00 AM  
Anonymous RW said...

richard,
inventory is also exploding in summit....locals are saying "you seem to get more for your money this year"....translation, price declines.

People who think they are immune are kidding themselves. The Mid Town direct towns will also suffer. For the higher priced homes corrections will be more severe.... decline of 20% on $2 Million is a quick 400K out the window.

4/20/2006 07:48:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am really interested in the arguments that real estate prices in whatever-area-I'm-in won't go down. I moved up here from western North Carolina (which I really love, and would move back in a second, if there were any jobs). My extended family still lives there. My mom agrees with me that New Jersey is in a bubble, but insists North Carolina isn't, because 'people want to retire here, and the housing is cheaper'. It is cheaper, but prices have still doubled in the last few years; I have a friend who bought a house in Asheville in 2000 for 100,000 and just had it reappraised for 250,000 and used the equity to pay off credit cards (ack!). I recently noticed some condos in downtown Asheville that were 1 bedroom/1bath going asking $400,000. I wouldn't pay 400,000 for a one bedroom anywhere, but my mom says people will there, because they are really nice, and everybody wants to move there.

4/20/2006 07:50:00 AM  
Blogger delford said...

It is interesting how the perceptions are changing, now we have posters who admit that perhaps just maybe, just kinda sorta that we are in a bubble, and others who are saying we will just see a leveling off etc.

Thene thye try and rationalize why their town, area, will not decline, or will only level off.

Mid town direct, close to NYC, open you pockests and pay, it is all just too funny. All areas wil drop, including NYC.

4/20/2006 09:10:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

125 comments?

impressive

4/20/2006 09:18:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

one thing to remember...in an inflationary environment you want to make sure you have a house. If anyone thinks in 30 years the dollar will be worth what the bank will loan it for today...they are crazy...the price of gold has gone up from 250 to 640..silver went from 5 to 14...oil is back over 70 per barrell..it is not the housing has gone up...it is that the dollar has gone down...and it will continue to...that is that whole budget deficit / national debt thing...how do you expect we could ever pay our debts back to these countries..of course the only way is to depreciate the currency..that means everything including housing gets more expensive..if you have a 30 yr fixed loan you are in a much better positon than if you rent...there will be no general deflation in an environment where inflation is raging..which in case no one noticed ..we are right in the middle of.

4/20/2006 10:02:00 AM  
Blogger NJGal said...

"if you have a 30 yr fixed loan you are in a much better positon than if you rent.."

Uh, who has those nowadays? That's right, the people who bought BEFORE the boom, when housing was affordable.

Yes, there's inflation going on right now, and the Fed is fighting it, supposedly. If they want to control that and the strength of the dollar, they know they have to raise rates to do it...higher rates=lower house prices. Fact is, it's better to have a house drop 100K and buy it at a 6.5% interest rate for the long run than to buy it at the higher price for a lower rate. If rates go down, you can refinance, and you're in a better position than the sucker who paid 100K more. And if real estate "only goes up", in 30 years you'll have made more money on your place that the person who paid more.

4/20/2006 10:15:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

I appreciate the bulls' presence here (esp skeptic's), but I suggest that if you guys think current house prices are only a problem for those who are "priced out," you haven't thought about it hard enough.

first of all, the entire real estate market depends on entry level buyers. if the entry level becomes unaffordable, then almost nobody can sell their homes because people won't be able to trade up.

but maybe you say that you don't care because you're not interested in selling anyway.

well, high housing costs still hurt you.

for one, your property taxes go way up.

two, maybe the "great schools" in your town start to suffer because teachers can't afford to live anywhere near you. paramedics are priced out too, so it might cause those ambulances you need to get to you a little slower.

three, all of the mom and pop stores in your town start to go out of business because they can't afford the rent. it's ok since you can still get everything you need at the big box store down the road, but a lot of the charm of your town is lost.

four, you start to notice that it's getting harder to find a decent plumber, electrician, mechanic, etc, anywhere near you. come to think of it, all of the "regular" jobs seem to be filled by illegal aliens. well that's because all of the young people who don't work on Wall St. have concluded that they can't afford to live here and have moved away.

five, since real estate is now so valuable, there are endless contractors looking to tear down all of the normal homes in your neighborhood to build McMansions. those young people who are fortunate enough to be able to afford to live in your million dollar neighborhood want a house that looks like it cost a million dollars, not a normal sized cape. so all of a sudden your town starts to become overrun with 4000 sq ft monstrosities sitting on 0.1 acre lots. Again, much of the "charm" of your area starts to evaporate.

I could go on and on, but you get the point. Universally high real estate prices hurt everyone, not just those who are priced out.

4/20/2006 02:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Michelle said...

Anon 8:50

We wanted to move to Asheville from CA but foudn that the housing there was on average 30-35% cheaper than NJ for a comparable home (although the taxes were much better), but salaries were 50% of what we might expect here. I ws offered a job by Biltmore for more than 50% less than I make here for the same thing, and my husband wasn't sure if he would even be able to find a job there (and in NYC it took him exactly one day).

Overall, given the economics of Asheville, we find it to be horribly overpriced for no reason. It has no real industry save tourism which isn't even THAT substantial, and didn't seem to be heading in any kind of growth direction. Many of the houses we looked at in the fall were boomers' second houses they were trying to unload. We almost put in a bid on one for $650K in Fairview that the owners bought 5 years ago for $599K, and they've lowered the price again to $625. It's been on the market more than 7 months now.

And that's my 2 cents on WNC! Pity because it's so lovely there.

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