Monday, May 01, 2006

Gallup Housing Poll

From the Gallup Poll:

Confidence in Housing Market Dips


The volume of U.S. home sales is near the record high seen in 2005, but Americans are much less confident today than they were a year ago about the advisability of buying real estate. Just 52% of Americans say now is a good time to buy a house, down from 71% last April and 81% in 2003. Residents of the East and West are especially likely to consider it a bad time to purchase a new home.
...
Housing looked like a good deal in the recent past when single-family homes were experiencing back-to-back years of double-digit appreciation and, in many markets, savvy investors could flip a home in a matter of months for a hefty profit. Now that the increases appear to be slowing, and home values are leveling off at fairly high prices, prospective buyers are naturally more concerned about paying top dollar. Rising mortgage interest rates -- though still "favorable" according to the National Association of Realtors -- may also diminish the degree to which Americans feel they can afford a new home.

The recent decline in consumer optimism about the housing market is seen with all major income groups and regions of the country. Across three income levels -- high, medium, and low -- the percentage of Americans saying now is a good time to buy has declined by about a third just in the last year, and by even more since 2003.

Americans' appetites for the housing market appear to be diminishing, and it's not due to their perceptions of overall economic conditions. Ratings of the national economy are about as negative today as a year ago. Roughly a third today call economic conditions "excellent" or "good" and even fewer believe conditions are improving.

23 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

It shows in the "Open House" signs that are piling up on street corners. It is really amazing to see about 4 signs on every corner...and then when you go into the open houses, the sign in sheets are empty. We looked at 5 open houses this weekend. We were the only ones there and the sign in sheets were empty...expect for one house which had some lady with her child looking through the house...as it turns out, she wasn't looking to buy, just wanted to see what her neighbors house looked like!

5/01/2006 06:38:00 AM  
Blogger Richie said...

"Nosy neighbors" make up most of the sign in sheets for open houses. They always love to see how their neighbors live.

5/01/2006 07:37:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Free markets work in both directions

Ba ba ba ba ba ba ba ba BOYCOTT Houses

Ripoff prices


Boooooyaaaaaaa


Bob

5/01/2006 09:28:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A WARNING TO YOU BUBBLEHEADS

LOOK WHAT CAN HAPPEN.

“Indeed, one effect of sluggish price appreciation in this area is that some longtime residents say they don’t have enough equity in their current homes to afford to move into the pricey new condos. For example, Dan Koop and his wife might consider moving to the city, but he doesn’t think he could recoup the $325,000 that he paid in 1985 to build a home in Plano. ‘We would have to take a $25,000 to $30,000 loss on it,’ he said.”

A LOSS AFTER 20 YEARS MORONS.

THINK TWICE BEFORE YOU DIVE IN.

5/01/2006 09:36:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

a friend of mine the other day was telling me he thought gas prices would pop the RE bubble. high gas prices cause everyone to notice other prices that have gone up disproportionately fast. people are forced to recalculate their budgets because gas prices are listed everywhere you go. they can't ignore them, unlike prices for other things.

an extra $25 a week shouldn't make or break you if you're thinking about buying a $500,000 home, but then again, most of these people haven't been thinking at all

5/01/2006 09:39:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Nice to see the masses coming around.

The data support the perception, but even if it didn't, perception becomes reality anyway.

I'd hate to be a flipper or a "motivated seller" today.

5/01/2006 10:40:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

I wonder to what extent these "confidence ratings" aren't just measuring people's beliefs towards access to credit.

5/01/2006 12:00:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...


A LOSS AFTER 20 YEARS MORONS.


And that loss is actually more than 50% larger if you factor in inflation.

5/01/2006 12:02:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

I saw this article on Saturday. Sorry I haven't been as good about forwarding articles. BTW, I used to work for Gallup.

5/01/2006 12:18:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Interesting piece on bubble psychology. If you go to the times page there is a graphic which asks if you have heard of a housing bubble.


http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/30/business/yourmoney/30count.html?ex=1304049600&en=f1ad3f256abc0248&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss

April 30, 2006
The Count
If No One Whispered 'Housing Bubble,' There'd Be No Worry
By HUBERT B. HERRING
A pyramid scheme, with each new round of players making earlier rounds richer, is a foolproof way to make money — until it isn't. What is the breaking point? Probably about the time some spoilsport whispers "pyramid scheme," and there's a mad dash for the exits.

Echoes of housing prices? Not exactly, because you can't flee the housing market without living on the street. Still, an almost pyramid-like frenzy has engulfed some areas in recent years, with buyers paying ever-loftier prices for homes, convinced that within months they will find someone who will pay even more for them.

If there are whispers of a "housing bubble" — ominous words that could make check-writing hands distinctly shaky — most people still haven't heard them. As recently as a year ago, according to a survey by the Gallup Organization, just 23 percent of Americans were even moderately familiar with the term. In the latest survey, that jumped to 40 percent.

And 24 percent now say that a bubble is likely within a year — though, naturally, only 7 percent expect it in their own backyard. HUBERT B. HERRING

5/01/2006 12:28:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

I regraphed that Gallup poll data so that it is less deceptive.

Marinite
Marin Real Estate Bubble

5/01/2006 03:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BA BA BA BA BOOEY

BOYCOTT:

BOB THE IDIOT

STOP THE STUPIDITY

5/01/2006 03:48:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

BTW Marinite,

I love the picture!

5/01/2006 03:52:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ba ba ba ba ba ba BOYCOTT HOUSES!


Lots of uncomfortable "starving" realtors, flippers and desperate homeowners in over their heads.

It's time to say "NO" to Ripoff prices.

Booooooyaaaaaaaa

Bob

5/01/2006 04:20:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here is a stuck speculator (MLS 4660689 south NJ)
Bought on 03/15/2005 for 254,000 from a guy who bought in 2004 for 197,654.
Here are the reductions during last 4 months. Last 5 reductions shows desperation of seller, may be because his ARM has reset. I offered him 230K.

01/11/2006 310,000
02/23/2006 299,900
03/13/2006 294,900
03/27/2006 292,900
03/30/2006 292,000
04/21/2006 291,900
04/28/2006 291,000

5/01/2006 04:26:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

why would someone even bother to reduce an asking price by $900? if you're serious drop the price by $5-$10k at this price level. sheez stop wasting everyone's time.

5/01/2006 04:30:00 PM  
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