Lowball! 4/22 - 5/1
Lowball! takes a look at home sales over the past week from a very different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales over the past week and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between asking price and selling price.
The purpose of Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, Lowball! offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.The list does not contain all sales, I hand-pick the most interesting sales from the list. These listings might be the highest dollar drops, biggest percentage reductions, or sales in towns that are thought to still be 'hot'. Please note, even with double digit percentage reductions, these homes are still incredibly overpriced.
On to the list!
MLS# 2218107 - Little Falls, NJ
List Price $396,900
Sales Price $310,000 (21.9% Lowball)
MLS# 2210393 - Andover, NJ
List Price $299,000
Sales Price $250,000 (16.4% Lowball)
MLS# 2109439 - Franklin, NJ
Original List Price $850,000
List Price $775,000
Sales Price $650,000 (16.1% Lowball, 23.5% off Original List)
MLS# 2228760 - Phillipsburg, NJ
Original List Price $150,000
List Price $125,000
Sales Price $105,000 (16% Lowball, 30% off Original List)
MLS# 2215218 - Verona, NJ
List Price $1,500,000
Sales Price $1,288,000 (14.1% Lowball)
MLS# 2099115 - Manville, NJ
List Price $335,000
Sales Price $290,00 (13.4% Lowball)
MLS# 2089382 - Livingston, NJ
Original List Price $479,000
List Price $459,000
Sales Price $400,000 (12.9% Lowball, 16.5% off Original List)
MLS# 2109910 - Montgomery, NJ
Original List Price $1,750,000
List Price $1,599,000
Sales Price $1,405,000 (12.1% Lowball, 19.7% off Original List)
MLS# 2103382 - Fredon, NJ
List Price $337,500
Sales Price $298,000 (11.7% Lowball)
MLS# 2236513 - Montclair, NJ
List Price $215,000
Sales Price $190,000 (11.6% Lowball)
MLS# 2240203 - Vernon, NJ
List Price $202,900
Sales Price $190,000 (11.3% Lowball)
MLS# 2063093 - Franklin Lakes, NJ
Original List Price $2,899,000
List Price $2,699,000
Sales Price $2,400,000 (11.1% Lowball, 17.2% off Original List)
MLS# 2113198 - Chatham, NJ
List Price $1,225,000
Sales Price $1,100,000 (10.2% Lowball!)
MLS# 2222387 - Bloomingdale, NJ
Original List Price $450,000
List Price $399,999
Sales Price $360,000 (10% Lowball, 20% off Original List)
MLS# 2101534 - Independence, NJ
Original List Price #359,900
List Price $349,900
Sales Price $315,000 (10% Lowball, 12.5% off Original List)
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
The purpose of Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, Lowball! offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.The list does not contain all sales, I hand-pick the most interesting sales from the list. These listings might be the highest dollar drops, biggest percentage reductions, or sales in towns that are thought to still be 'hot'. Please note, even with double digit percentage reductions, these homes are still incredibly overpriced.
On to the list!
MLS# 2218107 - Little Falls, NJ
List Price $396,900
Sales Price $310,000 (21.9% Lowball)
MLS# 2210393 - Andover, NJ
List Price $299,000
Sales Price $250,000 (16.4% Lowball)
MLS# 2109439 - Franklin, NJ
Original List Price $850,000
List Price $775,000
Sales Price $650,000 (16.1% Lowball, 23.5% off Original List)
MLS# 2228760 - Phillipsburg, NJ
Original List Price $150,000
List Price $125,000
Sales Price $105,000 (16% Lowball, 30% off Original List)
MLS# 2215218 - Verona, NJ
List Price $1,500,000
Sales Price $1,288,000 (14.1% Lowball)
MLS# 2099115 - Manville, NJ
List Price $335,000
Sales Price $290,00 (13.4% Lowball)
MLS# 2089382 - Livingston, NJ
Original List Price $479,000
List Price $459,000
Sales Price $400,000 (12.9% Lowball, 16.5% off Original List)
MLS# 2109910 - Montgomery, NJ
Original List Price $1,750,000
List Price $1,599,000
Sales Price $1,405,000 (12.1% Lowball, 19.7% off Original List)
MLS# 2103382 - Fredon, NJ
List Price $337,500
Sales Price $298,000 (11.7% Lowball)
MLS# 2236513 - Montclair, NJ
List Price $215,000
Sales Price $190,000 (11.6% Lowball)
MLS# 2240203 - Vernon, NJ
List Price $202,900
Sales Price $190,000 (11.3% Lowball)
MLS# 2063093 - Franklin Lakes, NJ
Original List Price $2,899,000
List Price $2,699,000
Sales Price $2,400,000 (11.1% Lowball, 17.2% off Original List)
MLS# 2113198 - Chatham, NJ
List Price $1,225,000
Sales Price $1,100,000 (10.2% Lowball!)
MLS# 2222387 - Bloomingdale, NJ
Original List Price $450,000
List Price $399,999
Sales Price $360,000 (10% Lowball, 20% off Original List)
MLS# 2101534 - Independence, NJ
Original List Price #359,900
List Price $349,900
Sales Price $315,000 (10% Lowball, 12.5% off Original List)
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
20 Comments:
30% below OLP
HOUSING BUST!!
La la la la la la la LOWBALL!!!!!
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA!!!!!
Bob
Just say "NO" to Ripoff Prices.
Ba ba ba ba ba ba ba BOYCOTT HOUSES!
Boooooyaaaaaaaaaa
Bob
Thanks for the Warren & Sussex intensive lowball!
Sellers slowly facing reality -- forced to re-list absurdly over-priced junker with a $100K price drop. (Still needs to drop another $300K before coming in line with today's insane bubble prices.)
First listing:
106 Short Hills Avenue
MLS 2245162
Asking: $1,279,000
List Date: Feb 10, 2006
Days on Market: 80
Second listing:
106 Short Hills Avenue
MLS 2272564
Asking: $1,179,000
List Date: May 1, 2006
Days on Market: 1
The house is so ugly (given the price, anyway) they have actually removed a picture of the exterior from the listing:
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1059176548
This owner is clueless. There are a dozen far nicer homes for sale in this town, on quieter streets, etc., in the same price range.
And re-listing under a new MLS number is unethical.
Regarding this lowball in Chatham (2113198), I still can't believe someone paid $1.1M for this junker:
http://gsmlspicturesweb6.gsmls.com/MediaDisplay/74/hr3218174-0.jpg
(triple-click long links to select)
I guess if there's a fire, at least a hydrant is nearby.
Could anybody help me to find out what
happens for a house in edison. The
ML# 605789.
Thanks!
Folks,
The bubble "burst" is over. Sure you'll see price reductions here and there and sellers just can't throw crap on the market anymore but do yourself a favor and read "Our Brave New World" by GaveKal Research. You'll see that the RE is just pausing and that intrest rates are going to remain low. What's that 30 yr right now? 6.5%? Sounds pretty low to me. Think Benny is gonna raise them more? How high ya think? Push that 30 yr to 7%? 7.5%? Maybe but unlikely.
As long as US companies continue to source production abroad, asset prices in the US will rise will consumer good prices will fall. Net effect, inflation remains tame and volatility low. Low volatility means stable job growth. Stable jobs mean a better ability to take on more debt and service it. We may not like the idea and the fact that we have a low to negative savings rate but look at the high savings rate that Japan has? Where has it gotten them for the last 20 years? A whole lot of deflation and nothing.
Sure oil house prices are higher but how high have prices spiked for clothes and everyday consumer goods? I seem to remember paying $300 for a CD player back in '98. Now I probably get that for $25.
Buy Real Estate now, while you can. The rich in other countries are buying 'em here. Why? Stable government. Plus NNJ is going to see a boom in population growth (+/- 1 Mil) over the next 20 years. Oh, worried about that outmigration? Why then is NJ Transit busying designing new train tunnels in NYC and why is NYC busy adding capacity to Penn Station and elsewhere?
Just look around this area and see all the new mass transit projects. 2nd Ave subway, Hudson Bergen Light Rail, Monihyan(sp) station, Seacacus Transfer, etc.
Its for commuters folks, not for tourists from North Carolina.
I can't wait to see the comments you have for this post. I wonder if Booya Bob will will say Lelelelelele Lemming! Or Dddddd Denial!
Fire away folks! Have a good night!
It's nice to see flippers are starting to visit the blog.
How are those mortgage payments working out? And the property taxes, they have to be paid too. What are you at now, 100+ days on the market?
Hang onto that PriceLine stock!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PCLN&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
(triple-click to select long links)
Read just as many pieces at the height of the tech bubble that proclaimed the old rules didn't matter anymore. We're in a "new economy".
Turns out the old rules still mattered, who would have thought.
We're a few short months into a cycle that can take years to play out. Saying the "burst" is over already is just a tad premature.
You have a link to that piece or a PDF? I'm not about to pay GaveKal $20 to read it.
grim
Shailesh Gala raises some interesting points. He is right when it comes to real estate. The free market is not in play, at least in this region. The MLS is a cartel and RE agents as we know spout untruths, this does not allow for "perfect information". Also with municipalities fighting development and rezoning it creates artificial scarcity. Just look at the number of age restricted units built in the state last year. It made up around half of the total. That is a market distortion.
On a side note, NJ Transit is trying to get a new tunnel put in but it is coming at the expense of other projects in the state. One of particular interest to me is the Lackawanna Cutoff. If you sit in heavy traffic on I-80 in the morning , count the PA plates. Then imagine them taking a train to work. It would take thousands of PA drivers off of I-80 which cannot be widened.
BTW, I met Senator Arlen Spector up in Scranton yesterday at Steam Town NP he is a big advocate for the project. He is a good guy. If you are a train buff it is worth the trip to go to Steam Town.
I am 100% for any project that will take the PA drivers off of the road!
-Cultural Infidel
I don't understand the claims that house prices are justified due to real inflation. House prices are set by the market, and the market for houses is local. It doesn't matter what the global economy is doing. Local people are the ones who buy houses.
I know there are a few exceptions. Global cities do attract some global buyers, so a weak dollar will increase prices in Manhattan and Hawaii. Also, a weak dollar raises material costs, which could explain maybe a 10% increase in the list price of new construction.
But for the most part, it doesn't matter how rich the Chinese or the Europeans get compared to Americans - a 3 bedroom house in Piscataway is not bought by the Chinese or Europeans.
I am out! My place went to closing today. Wanna know how I feel? Damn good that I made a great decision to sell and rent for a year or two.
I got walloped in the tech bubble. Not gonna let that happen again. I have gone to about 10-15 businesses and asked them how business is and ALL of them said they dont know what the government is talking about when it sees all this economic growth.
The home equity draw has run its course, all that money may show a few good quarters for non-d spending businesses but that lag will catch up within a year.
Aggressive lending? Thats over too. I wonder if Bush cut a deal with the bankers to spur all this bogus growth through winks and nods to stimulate the economy.
There is no way in hell ANY data can support these housing prices. The wages arent there to keep up with the prices. I have to admit that I felt a little ridiculous asking for the price I did but it attracted 3 buyers a few months ago.
Gas prices are gonna damage the economy further. There may be some good news for japanese makers because this year people are going to consider swapping out that SUV for an eco car. Why? Becuase that is what I am going to do.
I have an 80% return on my property for a handful of years of ownership. No debt and I own everything I have outright including my car. I also have enough to buy a few properties from people who will soon find out that they shouldnt have bought a house in the first place.
Grim keep up the good work, I've been reading this blog for a few months when i considered selling.
Also, wanted to add in...
You should put up a "Donate" sign on this site, that way we can donate to you so that you can buy the software you need to perform your analytics.
I agree, I would donate too!
Anon 10:19AM:
"I am out!"
You sound like Kramer on Seinfeld.
"I am master of my domain"
Looks like the mentality still exists that people who commute to NYC from Jersey make about 5 billion a year
Look at the following nearly identitical homes from Realtor.com.
All of them are on Tyler Avenue, Iselin, from the maps it looks like they are all maybe one or two houses apart from each other.
The second and third ads appeared AFTER the first one had reduced to 299K !!
MLS ID#: 612243 - $299,900 (reduced from $329,000) - 3 Bed, 1.5 Bath - Type: Split level - 1 car garage, Year Built: 1956 - 6 total rooms - Central air conditioning
MLS ID#: 614697 - $339,900 (reduced from 359,000 I think) - 3 Bed, 1.5 Bath - Year Built: 1955 - Type: Cape cod - 6 total rooms - 1 car garage - Central air conditioning - 6 total rooms
MLS ID#: 617562 - $379,900 - 4 Bed, 2 Bath - Year Built: 1965 - Type: Detached, Split level - Central air conditioning - No Garage - Spa/hot tub (perhaps garage converted into 4th bedroom, and half bath converted to full bath.)
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