Friday, May 05, 2006

Weekend Open Discussion

Observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, Open House reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let's have them.

For readers that have never commented, there is a small link on the bottom of each new message that reads "# Comments". Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn't know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past 6 months. The archives can be found at the bottom of the right hand menu and are categorized by month.

As always, anything goes!

28 Comments:

Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Boycott Open Houses!

* Empty realtor sign-in books, zero sales leads.

* Sellers bewildered they can't get twice what they paid 4 years ago.

* No foot-traffic, realtors bored out of their minds for hours.


Prices are dropping, don't let up!

MLS 2261656 - $300,000 price drop

MLS 2261641 - $40,000 price drop

MLS 2268702 - $50,000 price drop

MLS 2259341 - $75,000 price drop

MLS 2253723 - $50,000 price drop

MLS 2268017 - $60,000 price drop

MLS 2246790 - $55,000 price drop

MLS 2268671 - $30,000 price drop

5/05/2006 05:15:00 PM  
Blogger jhawk92 said...

Tom-

nice plug for your site...glad you've made some money off this bubble as well...you and Robert Toll have something in common...

he's raked in about $600 million over the last 18 months...I posted details under the Q2 orders dropped column on the main page...

hope your able to sell your licensing school before the bottom drops out...looks like Toll and the other senior officers at his company think the party's over!

5/05/2006 08:26:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

I have been hearing so much about this housing boom bubble and how it will burst. I will tell you one thing that I have sure noticed. A lot of people are getting thier real estate licenses....it is a sure sign that real estate is hot. I hope it stays that way.

Real estate will be just fine. I thank you for a positive note on this blog and a perfect counterpoint to never ending refrain of "boycotting open houses". I can see that you've got positive things in your heart by wanting to help rather than hurt others.

There's an attempt here by a few people to portray a few price corrections as a rout as far as real estate values are concerned in NJ. It is not. There are still opportunities to make money in real estate if you buy right. There are still opportunities for realtors.

5/05/2006 08:40:00 PM  
Anonymous MarMar said...

Where do you find the homes once they have been sold using the MLS #?

5/05/2006 08:55:00 PM  
Anonymous njgal said...

Reinvestor101, there is no way that an increasing number of people getting their licenses is a good thing. You can't really believe that, can you? All that means is that the masses of the unemployable have found an easy "career" to jump into now that they're out of the dot.com business, and think they'll be rich - a sure sign that real estate is over. The opportunities for realtors will be there, but only for those who are very seasoned and have seen the cycle go down before. These newbies are dead in the water.

5/05/2006 09:40:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Real estate is in fact so hot that getting burned might become unavoidable.

5/05/2006 09:40:00 PM  
Blogger Mad Canuck said...

Ten years ago, I was a homeowner. Five years ago, I was a landlord. Two years ago, I cashed my chips in and became just a tenant in a rental apartment.

I could see the danger signs in this market from two years ago. Yes, some people made some good money since then, but the market has gotten riskier and riskier as the fundamentals have negatively shifted, and now we are left with a market that's just unsustainable.

In another couple of years, after the bloodbath is done, I'll buy back into the market and move out of this apartment, but for now, it seems a prudent move to sit on the sidelines.

I cringe when I think about how many people in this area will lose their life savings in the next few years. What's sad is, like lambs to the slaughter, they don't know what's coming to them.

5/05/2006 10:19:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"I can see that you've got positive things in your heart by wanting to help rather than hurt others."


When it comes to financials, better to have positive cash flow, than "positive things in your heart." Ask the owner of MLS 2261656, he's losing at least $300,000 since buying 9 months ago.

Speculators: sell now while you still can.

5/06/2006 12:25:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

REInvestor,

That message was spam, that message was likely posted to hundreds of blogs using an automated blog spamming tool.

It was not in any way a sincere message.

grim

5/06/2006 04:48:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

After coming back from two weeks of work and relaxation, I noticed quite a few number of houses are either "contract accepted," or "under contract." These must be the hurry up and get in before the interest rate increase.

5/06/2006 05:28:00 AM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

http://c-n.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060502/BIZ01/605020354/1019



NEWARK -- Economic growth in New Jersey slowed in the first three months of the year -- burdened by an increase in initial unemployment claims, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported Monday.

The regional bank's latest monthly forecast projected moderate economic growth of 2.2 percent through the end of the year.

"Basically, the first quarter in New Jersey was a little slower on most measures, but overall, the economy is in pretty good shape," said a bank economist, vice president Theodore M. Crone.

Initial unemployment claims in March were 40,988, up about 300, he said.

The housing industry continued cooling, with new home permits up 0.5 percent in March, to 2,261, from February, Crone said.

"Housing was a big driver previously, and now it's going to level off," as it is doing nationally, he said. "It is sort of the exhaustion of a rapid expansion."

The state unemployment rate dropped to 4.5 percent in March, from 4.7 percent in February, with nonfarm employment rising to 4,069,000 in March, from 4,065,000.

The New Jersey unemployment rate remained below the national average, which dropped from 4.8 to 4.7 percent in March.

Another indicator of economic activity, average hours worked by manufacturing employees, remained steady at 42.4 per week.

The bank's forecast that the Garden State economy will grow by 2.2 percent from March through December is the lowest rate since 1.5 percent was predicted in December.

The bank's nine-month forecasts, issued each month, have generally been above 2 percent growth since last March. The forecast in February saw 2.3 percent growth over the following nine months, and 2.9 percent in January.

The bank's index of current economic activity rose 0.3 percent from February to March, within the range of recent months. The economy has grown by 1 percent in the last three months and by 3 percent in the last year.

The 3 percent growth trailed the national average of 3.2 percent, Crone said.

from the Courier News website www.c-n.com

5/06/2006 06:42:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BOYCOTT OVERPRICED HOUSES!

Starving realtors + desperate sellers = Much Lower rational Home Prices

Ba Ba Ba Ba Ba Ba BOYCOTT HOUSES!

Booooooyaaaaaaaa

Bob

5/06/2006 07:10:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

great blog, read every day.

I am a homeowner looking to upgrade in 2-3 years with an expanding family. There is a lot of discussion regarding what % declines there will (or won't be). I haven't seen too much on various price levels of the market. Being that I will most likely want to buy a larger (ie more expensive) house I feel that a 20% decline is better that any appreciation. If my house is 500K and the house I buy is 800K then a 20% decline will benefit me. Broad question but is the concensus that the market will decline at all price points, if not what is the most likely scenario. Again I know its a general statement, but just for discussion.

Thanks, JMM

5/06/2006 07:20:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bought in 98 for 285K, sold in 2006 for 660K.
Seeming the profit is a whopping 395K, right?

but you got to spend money to make money, So how much did the home owner profit exactly?

I did a calculation for homeowner's net profit assuming the following:


1) first of all, it is a annual 8.5% appreciation made the 285k in 96 to 660K in 2006; in 1996 the downpayment is 20K, financed amount is 265K, average mortage rate is 6.5% over the years, property tax is 1.5%
2) subtract the realtor's commission from 660K, the seller got 630K;
3)subtract remaining mortagage balance 205K from 630K is the money seller pocketed: 425K;
4)Subtract from 425K the mortage payment over ten years: that is 425k-121k= 304K;
5)subtract property tax paid over the years from 304K: 304k-60K= 244K;
6)Subtract maintainace fees over the years from 244K: 244K-3k=214K;
6)Subtract the otherwise invested downpayment and principle payment/mortage interest/property tax from 244K, 244k-38K=206K.

Still not bad investment, because we had been in the most fast appreciation of RE in the history for the past few years.

5/06/2006 07:36:00 AM  
Blogger jhawk92 said...

Okay, I voted for Robert Toll as one of the poster children of the bubble...who does everyone else think should be nominated?

David Lereah? Alan Greenspan? Roland Arnall (Ameriquest chairman/US ambassador to Netherlands)???

Love to hear some other nominations...who will be the Bernie Ebbers, Henry Blodget, Jeffrey Skilling of the Real Estate bust?

5/06/2006 07:52:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Toll just doing what he always does -- builds and sells houses

Lereah just doing what a special interest spokeman does -- horribly bend the truth

Greenspan -- the big facilitator

The poster child of the bubble:
the common man and "human nature"

5/06/2006 08:43:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Interesting NY Times piece on the combination of factors pinching American's finances. An interview with the VP of realtytrac where he says that the upswing in foreclosures is unprecedented in that it is due to the loan types and not layoffs or recession.

http://tinyurl.com/r3xko

5/06/2006 09:09:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We are in the midst of the greatest Real Estate crash in history. For those who brought recently (i.e 2-3 years) with exoctic subprime mortgages such as ARM's and/or interest-only, I advise you to seek help before your situation goes from bad to worse.

Hold on tight because it is going to be a rough ride.

5/06/2006 09:17:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Article on Toll Bros.

Big Builder of Luxury Homes Says Business Is Off 29%

"Speculative buyers are no longer fueling demand," said Robert I. Toll, the company's chairman and chief executive. "Instead, they're putting the homes they've recently acquired back on the market or are canceling contracts in midconstruction."


http://tinyurl.com/n6evx

5/06/2006 09:21:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I can see that you've got positive things in your heart by wanting to help rather than hurt others
do you think the investors have good things in their hearts? they hurt common people by driving prices up. i hope they all go to the poor house. ha get it poor house!

5/06/2006 11:04:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon 8:36-
They also got free housing for 10 years. That is worth a lot.

5/06/2006 01:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

CNN

Buffett: Real estate slowdown ahead

http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/05/news/newsmakers/buffett_050606/?cnn=yes

5/06/2006 04:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unrealtor said "When it comes to financials, better to have positive cash flow, than "positive things in your heart."


LOL...so true, sock it to the Reinvestor huckster! I sense it's time for him/her to find a new scam.

5/06/2006 06:22:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Wachovia Strikes
A $26 Billion Deal
For Golden West

California S&L Would Give
Acquisitive Giant Big Slice
Of Mortgage-Loan Business
By DENNIS K. BERMAN, CARRICK MOLLENKAMP and VALERIE BAUERLEIN
May 8, 2006

Wachovia Corp. struck a roughly $26 billion stock-and-cash deal to buy Golden West Financial Corp., making a big gamble on the volatile mortgage business as it extends its ambition to become a true national bank.

Wachovia agreed to pay 1.051 shares of its stock, or $62.42, plus $18.65 in cash for each share of Golden West, the nation's second-largest savings and loan, for years steered by co-chief executive officers, husband-and-wife team Herb and Marion Sandler, now in their 70s. At $26 billion, The price represents a roughly 15% premium to Golden West's current market value. The announcement was made late last night, following final negotiations that were complicated by the fact that Wachovia executives were hosting a PGA golf tournament, the Wachovia Championship, in the bank's hometown of Charlotte, N.C.

5/07/2006 10:19:00 PM  
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5/20/2006 04:52:00 AM  

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