Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Northern New Jersey Residential Inventory Update

Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)

4/26 - 15,648
5/3 - 16,111 (3% Weekly Increase)

Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)

4/26 - 7,622
5/3 - 7,792 (2.2% Weekly Increase)

Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)

4/26 - 2,259
5/3 - 2,243 (0.7% Weekly Decrease)


Blogger grim said...

10Y hit 5.16%

Bernanke speaks at noon

5/03/2006 10:03:00 AM  
Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

Yup...up every day. Also, interesting to note the amount of price reductions within the last few days.

5/03/2006 10:07:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You mean "Price Adjustments"


So the price adjustment went from insanely overpriced to insanely overpriced.

5/03/2006 10:18:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

yes the reductions seem to be coming at a more feverish pace. maybe people are finally realizing the asking $100k over comparable properties hoping to lure in a sucker days are over. if you have time you should wait and see where things go over the next few months.

grim, a weekly graph of your statistics would be quite telling.

5/03/2006 10:24:00 AM  
Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

quite true anon @ 11:18

5/03/2006 10:36:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim said...
10Y hit 5.16%

Bernanke speaks at noon

11:03 AM

I'll say it again. The RE forecasts were all interest rate neutral. As rates rise, watch all the backpedalling with the excuse "oh well my model held rates constant, we never gave guidance should mortgage rates increase beyond 7%" sleazy


5/03/2006 10:40:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Price redux are definitely coming. This one: 2611144
went on the market at $719 just a few weeks ago, dropped to $699 almost immediately and now at $659. Worth low 500s maybe in a sane market, we'll see if it gets there.

5/03/2006 11:40:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

probably worth $400's.

A TSUNAMI SIREN is wailing.

Run for higher ground.

The great housing crash is in motion. Many many many have signed up for monthly serfdom and they do not even realize it YET.

5/03/2006 12:05:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Not related or funny..

Tsunami warnings issued for the Fiji and New Zealand. Magnitude 8 quake off Tonga..

5/03/2006 12:17:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...


What do you think of deflation? Is it a potential outcome or is the threat all but gone? I see all kinds of goldbugs out there and the dollar losing value at an alarming rate.

5/03/2006 12:19:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

…In the alternative, what do you think of inflation (devaluation of the US$)? It certainly appears that inflation is happening all around us, despite what the official numbers says. As an enthusiast (for lack of a better term) of the Great Depression, Bernanke has already stated his intentions to “dump money from helicopters”, as was done to jump start the economy after the Great Depression (despite some recent backpedaling on the question).

Bubbles create inequities. Inflation, some say, can act as an equalizer. So, that $500k Cape in Lodi might still be $500k, it just won’t mean as much. For those with money, inflation erodes your real wealth position. During the Great Depression, the government went so far as to outlaw the private ownership of gold as to force the wealthy to hold US$’s, which it then devalued. For those in debt, inflation relieves the burden. It acts to level the playing field.

Of course debt holders would be hurt by this, but then again China holds a great deal of US debt anyway. The US has been anxious to raise the value of the Yuan versus the US$. Perhaps another approach would be to devalue the USD$ versus the Yuan.

Again, not necessarily my position on the issue, but certainly a possibility that merits discussion.

5/03/2006 01:16:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

There's a seller near me looking to find a sucker to buy a "tear down lot" (the listing doesn't even have a photo of the house, since it's irrelevant in the seller's eyes). This is on a busy street, and is .4 acres for $1M.

Problem is, there's an actual house for sale several blocks away, move in ready, on a larger .6 acre lot, with a less busy street, for the same price.

It will be fun to watch this greedy seller sit and spin for months.

5/03/2006 01:16:00 PM  
Blogger delford said...

renting A cape in Lodi. will never ever ever, be worth 500K.

5/03/2006 01:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


GSML stats

Inventory #'s

3/06/06 24,111 Houses for sale

5/03/06 28,110 Houses for sale

And this does not include FSBO.

A little late sellers. Don't panic now.

5/03/2006 01:42:00 PM  
Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

I can't count how many times I have heard a variation of "There will always be a demand for houses in North Jersey because of the proximity to NYC, which is why Bergen County prices will not go down." Delford, the cape you are renting should be worth well over 500k according to realtor & seller mentality.

5/03/2006 02:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let them believe this BS all the way DOWN!

5/03/2006 02:18:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A frined bought a NYC CO-OP in 1988. It was underwater for 10 years. 10 YEARS! Alot of years to think about it.

He sold it in 2000 for a slight profit.

Anyone buying at these nosebleed irrational prices deserves the pounding they will get.

5/03/2006 02:22:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

someone posted this on the HTTA website

5/03/2006 02:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here comes the TSUNAMI

“The percentage of East Bay buyers who opted for adjustable-rate mortgages increased from 3.4 percent in 2000 to 28.2 percent in 2005.”

“An increasing number of Sacramento-area residents are behind in their mortgage payments, putting them on a track to foreclosure. ‘We’re definitely seeing the number of calls increase related to foreclosure,” said Jennifer Harris, of Sacramento’s Home Loan Counseling Center.”

“She said people who stretched themselves too far to buy a house are seeing payments rise $150 to $200 a month and asking, ‘What am I going to do?’”

“Many lack easy options to get themselves out of trouble, said Vicky Henderson, loan consultant in Sacramento. ‘I can’t tell you the number of people who call who want to finance into a fixed-rate loan, and I can’t. They don’t have the value,’ she said.”

Good luck to you fools.

You have been warned by amny on this blog and others.

5/03/2006 02:45:00 PM  
Blogger Hiroiz said...

RentinginNJ - You are right about value of dollar depreciating against other currencies. I am waiting on sidelines for the RE market to cool off so that I can enter with more than 25% down of the value of the house I am looking to buy at current market prices so that might well turn out to be 30% down if I buy next year even if I don't save any more.

My problem is that I am earning around 4% interest on the money saved up for down payment and it earns less than 2.5% after taxes and against that the morgatge rates are rising.

Just how badly is the U.S. borrowing money? According to the Treasury Department, America's first 42 Presidents (from George Washington to Bill Clinton) borrowed a combined total of $1.01 trillion from 1789 to 2000, Between 2000 and 2005, President George W. Bush has borrowed $1.05 trillion -- and he's got a few more years left to go.

I need some comments from readers over here who can comment what is the best way to presrve and increase value of money we already have. I am bullish on Gold & silver and International emerging markets where I am putting my fair share of money but am not comfortable putting all eggs in one basket.

Any comments confirming my view or otherwise will be great...

5/03/2006 02:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chicago Finance;

Today, the # on maint. and taxes is a grand a month + the debt service and pay down of $500k...for a 2 bedroom in Jersey City. This stuff is very very funny to me...I'm also drooling, with greed.
From time to time, I compete with people to own various types of assets, the more the majority of the population (my competition) are toast, better for my family's wealth. I LOVE IT.

5/03/2006 02:47:00 PM  
Blogger delford said...

minutesfromnyc: Not onlywill that cape be worth 500K now, but it will be worth 600K next year.

North Jersey has a love hate relationship with NY'ers, but assume they will all come a running to pay big bucks, and insane property taxes.Oh and by the ay I do not live in Lodi, and would absolutely never ever, ever, ever live there, although I did see a realtor once advertising a house in Lodi, with the tag line a chance to live in prestigious Bergen County, just too, too funny.

5/03/2006 02:52:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Metro & Renting in NJ:

Deflation is off the table.

How 'bout some STAG-flation instead?


5/03/2006 03:26:00 PM  
Anonymous iLoveData&Graphs said...


'My problem is that I am earning around 4% interest on the money saved up for down payment and it earns less than 2.5% after taxes and against that the morgatge rates are rising.'

I am doing the same thing, currently my down payment used to be in mutual funds, ING Direct and Emigrant Direct. But recently I've pulled all the money out from mutual fund and stashed into ING and Emigrant. So I am earning about 4.15% to 4.5% on the interest.

I can understand your logic of gain some and loose about 1.5% of your earned interest to government(TAX) and worrying about the mortgage rate rising. However, I would rather pay higher mortgage rate later than to pay ridiculous amount for a house right now.

I know what you are thinking, but how would you feel knowing that you bought a house with $50k down and within a year value of your property goes down $40 to $50k? That would f***in piss me off.

If I were you, I would stay out of the stock market until Oct or Nov. Read this article from CNN. The most interesting part of the article is 'If the money was invested in the Dow in the "best six months" and then switched to fixed income in the "worst six months," it returned $489,933. If it was invested in the Dow during the "worst six" and moved to fixed income in the "best six," it lost $502.'

Good luck.

5/03/2006 03:32:00 PM  
Anonymous iLoveData&Graphs said...

5/03/2006 03:36:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

You have to stay invested - don't try to market time. Your down payment is a different story. If inflation is 1.5-3%, sounds as if you are OK to me.

I have to be careful about flipping out investing advice,


do not overweight in emerging markets for the time being

you can fool around with energy and natural resources, but don't overload - as an example, think about the cost of fuel you use in a year - hedge yourself for that amount - but NO MORE

otherwise overweight in international for now

Understand the definition of overweight - holding slightly more than you normally would in a fully diversified portfolio that is appropriate for your situation.

You should not rely on these comments for investment decisions. Please make sure to perform your own research.

I apologize for the compliance mumbo-jumbo.

5/03/2006 03:36:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

data & graphs:

Money = McMagazine
USA Today = McPaper
CNN = McNews

Money & USA are particularly analytically useless.

It's like drinking lemonade made without any lemons.

5/03/2006 03:42:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...


RE: recent US debt

How many of those former presidents had terrorists wipe out enough acreage of the nation's Financial District, to equal the entire city of Cincinatti?

Do people really have such a short memory? Geez, does anyone remember October of 2001?

Just sayin' some perspective is in order.

5/03/2006 04:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How many of those former presidents had terrorists wipe out enough acreage of the nation's Financial District, to equal the entire city of Cincinatti?

Well, lets see --- the nation's capital was invaded and torched under Madison. The nation was involved in a bloody civil war with casualties orders of magnitude higher under Lincoln. And under FDR, the country had to invade North Frica, West Europe, China and much of Southeast Asia.

Then again, given that we were told that the IRaq war would cost below $100 billion, probably under $50 billion and it looks like we'll end up spending $1 trillion before all is said and done.

5/03/2006 05:22:00 PM  
Blogger Hiroiz said...

Thanks to all for commenting on my post.

I will start with Unrealtor. I am not from this country as I arrived here in 2000 and don't know much of American history but just want to ask whether would you be bullish on the financial health of a country who has borrowed more in last 5 years than it has in previous 210 years no matter what the reason is whether it was Afghanistan (justified) or Iraq (unjustified as per me). Lets not mix politics with economics here.

Data&Graphs - I not invested at all in US markets as I am bearish on Dollar in the long run and all my investments are in Indian stock markets and funds concentrating on Asia and emerging European markets. Now as I want to go short on dollar I am buying Gold and silver.

Chicago - I appreciate your comment about timing the market as I am not at all a timer of market and believe in Invest and wait strategy. I understand your point of not being overweight on emerging markets and that was the reason I asked about various other options to hedge what I have against falling dollar.

5/03/2006 06:33:00 PM  
Anonymous iLoveData&Graphs said...

I've just unloaded all the Gold Fund (FSAGX) that I've bought back in 2002. I've made out like a bandit and grabbed Latin America Fund (FLATX) I really think Gold had enough and I would not buy them right now.

5/03/2006 07:52:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Well, lets see --- the nation's capital was invaded and torched under Madison."

Still didn't answer the question.

How many of those former presidents had terrorists wipe out enough acreage of the nation's Financial District, to equal the entire city of Cincinatti?

Some have amnesia, others, denial.

Some people also complained about the Trillions spend during the Cold War, and the HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of American lives lost to win that one.

Get past the blind partisanship to realize we're in uncharted waters today. Just take a minute to run through the decision-tree after a US city gets hit with a nuclear device. Things will get ugly real fast on a global scale. At least the Soviets were rational, today, we don't have that luxury.

5/03/2006 08:09:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Hiroiz, the US ecomony is very resilient. Did you know that 9-11 cost the US economy almost 3 Trillion dollars?

The US will adjust policy to address economic conditions. As I mentioned earlier, the US had to pull out of an October 2001 economy, which was also only a year after the dot-com crash. And here we are today with the unemployment at historic lows of 4.7%.

Are there problems? Sure. Housing will gradually return to normal as interest rates are raised to slowly cool off the ecomony.

But if you think there's a healthier, or more resilient economy out there, I have a bridge to sell you.

And realize the territory we find ourselves today -- an enemy seeking to use nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons to kill as many people as possible. If New York City is under a mushroom cloud, do you think people will say "That's OK, we saved a trillion dollars last year"?

The stakes are very high today, please have some perspective.

5/03/2006 08:23:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

As RainMan says: "Price-drops, lots and lots of price-drops".

72 Meadowbrook Rd, Short Hills
MLS 2268702

* On the market for 90+ days at $750K last summer. No Takers, taken off the market at end of summer.

* Back on the market April 19th at $730K. No takers.

* Now down to $699K, will a Greater Fool please step forward.

93 Meadowbrook Rd, Short Hills
MLS 2259341

* Mar 22, 2006 - $799,000. No takers.

* Apr 6, 2006 - $749,900. No takers.

* May 3, 2006 - $725,000, will a Greater Fool please step forward.

18 Meadowbrook Rd, Short Hills
MLS 2253723

* Mar 5, 2005 - $879,000. No takers.

* May 3, 2006 - $829,000, will a Greater Fool please step forward.

2 Clive Hills Rd, Short Hills
MLS 2268017

Listed at $1.1 million at the start of April. No takers.

Dropped to $988K on April 18th. No takers.

Dropped to $949K on May 3rd, will a Greater Fool please step forward.

270 White Oak Ridge Road, Short Hills
MLS 2246790

* Feb 15, 2006 - $899K. No takers.

* Mar 15, 2006 - $889K. No takers.

* Apr 27, 2006 - $845K, will a Greater Fool please step forward.

23 Mount Ararat Rd, Short Hills
MLS 2268671

* Apr 19, 2006 - $649K. No takers.

* May 3, 2006 - $619K, will a Greater Fool please step forward.

Realtors, practice the new terminology for 2006:

* "languishing on the market"

* "prices dropping in $50,000 blocks"

* "months on the market"

5/03/2006 09:09:00 PM  
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5/10/2006 10:14:00 PM  

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