Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Northern New Jersey Residential Inventory Update

GSMLS
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)

4/26 - 15,648
5/3 - 16,111 (3% Weekly Increase)

NJMLS
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)

4/26 - 7,622
5/3 - 7,792 (2.2% Weekly Increase)

MLSGuide
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)

4/26 - 2,259
5/3 - 2,243 (0.7% Weekly Decrease)

25 Comments:

Blogger grim said...

10Y hit 5.16%

Bernanke speaks at noon

5/03/2006 10:03:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You mean "Price Adjustments"

Hahahaha

So the price adjustment went from insanely overpriced to insanely overpriced.

5/03/2006 10:18:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim said...
10Y hit 5.16%

Bernanke speaks at noon

11:03 AM


I'll say it again. The RE forecasts were all interest rate neutral. As rates rise, watch all the backpedalling with the excuse "oh well my model held rates constant, we never gave guidance should mortgage rates increase beyond 7%" sleazy

chicago

5/03/2006 10:40:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Price redux are definitely coming. This one: 2611144
went on the market at $719 just a few weeks ago, dropped to $699 almost immediately and now at $659. Worth low 500s maybe in a sane market, we'll see if it gets there.

5/03/2006 11:40:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

probably worth $400's.

A TSUNAMI SIREN is wailing.

Run for higher ground.

The great housing crash is in motion. Many many many have signed up for monthly serfdom and they do not even realize it YET.

5/03/2006 12:05:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Not related or funny..

Tsunami warnings issued for the Fiji and New Zealand. Magnitude 8 quake off Tonga..

5/03/2006 12:17:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

CF,

What do you think of deflation? Is it a potential outcome or is the threat all but gone? I see all kinds of goldbugs out there and the dollar losing value at an alarming rate.

5/03/2006 12:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There's a seller near me looking to find a sucker to buy a "tear down lot" (the listing doesn't even have a photo of the house, since it's irrelevant in the seller's eyes). This is on a busy street, and is .4 acres for $1M.

Problem is, there's an actual house for sale several blocks away, move in ready, on a larger .6 acre lot, with a less busy street, for the same price.

It will be fun to watch this greedy seller sit and spin for months.

5/03/2006 01:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hahahahahahaha

GSML stats

Inventory #'s

3/06/06 24,111 Houses for sale

5/03/06 28,110 Houses for sale

And this does not include FSBO.

A little late sellers. Don't panic now.

5/03/2006 01:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let them believe this BS all the way DOWN!
hehehehe

5/03/2006 02:18:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A frined bought a NYC CO-OP in 1988. It was underwater for 10 years. 10 YEARS! Alot of years to think about it.

He sold it in 2000 for a slight profit.

Anyone buying at these nosebleed irrational prices deserves the pounding they will get.

5/03/2006 02:22:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

someone posted this on the HTTA website

http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/156791269.html

5/03/2006 02:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here comes the TSUNAMI

“The percentage of East Bay buyers who opted for adjustable-rate mortgages increased from 3.4 percent in 2000 to 28.2 percent in 2005.”

“An increasing number of Sacramento-area residents are behind in their mortgage payments, putting them on a track to foreclosure. ‘We’re definitely seeing the number of calls increase related to foreclosure,” said Jennifer Harris, of Sacramento’s Home Loan Counseling Center.”

“She said people who stretched themselves too far to buy a house are seeing payments rise $150 to $200 a month and asking, ‘What am I going to do?’”

“Many lack easy options to get themselves out of trouble, said Vicky Henderson, loan consultant in Sacramento. ‘I can’t tell you the number of people who call who want to finance into a fixed-rate loan, and I can’t. They don’t have the value,’ she said.”

Good luck to you fools.

You have been warned by amny on this blog and others.

5/03/2006 02:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chicago Finance;

Today, the # on maint. and taxes is a grand a month + the debt service and pay down of $500k...for a 2 bedroom in Jersey City. This stuff is very very funny to me...I'm also drooling, with greed.
From time to time, I compete with people to own various types of assets, the more the majority of the population (my competition) are toast, better for my family's wealth. I LOVE IT.

5/03/2006 02:47:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Metro & Renting in NJ:

Deflation is off the table.

How 'bout some STAG-flation instead?

chicago

5/03/2006 03:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hiroz...

'My problem is that I am earning around 4% interest on the money saved up for down payment and it earns less than 2.5% after taxes and against that the morgatge rates are rising.'

I am doing the same thing, currently my down payment used to be in mutual funds, ING Direct and Emigrant Direct. But recently I've pulled all the money out from mutual fund and stashed into ING and Emigrant. So I am earning about 4.15% to 4.5% on the interest.

I can understand your logic of gain some and loose about 1.5% of your earned interest to government(TAX) and worrying about the mortgage rate rising. However, I would rather pay higher mortgage rate later than to pay ridiculous amount for a house right now.

I know what you are thinking, but how would you feel knowing that you bought a house with $50k down and within a year value of your property goes down $40 to $50k? That would f***in piss me off.

If I were you, I would stay out of the stock market until Oct or Nov. Read this article from CNN.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/27/markets/markets_feature/index.htm The most interesting part of the article is 'If the money was invested in the Dow in the "best six months" and then switched to fixed income in the "worst six months," it returned $489,933. If it was invested in the Dow during the "worst six" and moved to fixed income in the "best six," it lost $502.'

Good luck.

5/03/2006 03:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/27/markets/markets_feature/index.htm

5/03/2006 03:36:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

You have to stay invested - don't try to market time. Your down payment is a different story. If inflation is 1.5-3%, sounds as if you are OK to me.


I have to be careful about flipping out investing advice,

BUT

do not overweight in emerging markets for the time being

you can fool around with energy and natural resources, but don't overload - as an example, think about the cost of fuel you use in a year - hedge yourself for that amount - but NO MORE

otherwise overweight in international for now

Understand the definition of overweight - holding slightly more than you normally would in a fully diversified portfolio that is appropriate for your situation.

You should not rely on these comments for investment decisions. Please make sure to perform your own research.

I apologize for the compliance mumbo-jumbo.

5/03/2006 03:36:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

data & graphs:

Money = McMagazine
USA Today = McPaper
CNN = McNews

Money & USA are particularly analytically useless.

It's like drinking lemonade made without any lemons.

5/03/2006 03:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hiroiz,

RE: recent US debt

How many of those former presidents had terrorists wipe out enough acreage of the nation's Financial District, to equal the entire city of Cincinatti?

Do people really have such a short memory? Geez, does anyone remember October of 2001?

Just sayin' some perspective is in order.

5/03/2006 04:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


How many of those former presidents had terrorists wipe out enough acreage of the nation's Financial District, to equal the entire city of Cincinatti?


Well, lets see --- the nation's capital was invaded and torched under Madison. The nation was involved in a bloody civil war with casualties orders of magnitude higher under Lincoln. And under FDR, the country had to invade North Frica, West Europe, China and much of Southeast Asia.

Then again, given that we were told that the IRaq war would cost below $100 billion, probably under $50 billion and it looks like we'll end up spending $1 trillion before all is said and done.

5/03/2006 05:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've just unloaded all the Gold Fund (FSAGX) that I've bought back in 2002. I've made out like a bandit and grabbed Latin America Fund (FLATX) I really think Gold had enough and I would not buy them right now.

5/03/2006 07:52:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Well, lets see --- the nation's capital was invaded and torched under Madison."


Still didn't answer the question.

How many of those former presidents had terrorists wipe out enough acreage of the nation's Financial District, to equal the entire city of Cincinatti?

Some have amnesia, others, denial.

Some people also complained about the Trillions spend during the Cold War, and the HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of American lives lost to win that one.

Get past the blind partisanship to realize we're in uncharted waters today. Just take a minute to run through the decision-tree after a US city gets hit with a nuclear device. Things will get ugly real fast on a global scale. At least the Soviets were rational, today, we don't have that luxury.

5/03/2006 08:09:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hiroiz, the US ecomony is very resilient. Did you know that 9-11 cost the US economy almost 3 Trillion dollars?

The US will adjust policy to address economic conditions. As I mentioned earlier, the US had to pull out of an October 2001 economy, which was also only a year after the dot-com crash. And here we are today with the unemployment at historic lows of 4.7%.

Are there problems? Sure. Housing will gradually return to normal as interest rates are raised to slowly cool off the ecomony.

But if you think there's a healthier, or more resilient economy out there, I have a bridge to sell you.

And realize the territory we find ourselves today -- an enemy seeking to use nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons to kill as many people as possible. If New York City is under a mushroom cloud, do you think people will say "That's OK, we saved a trillion dollars last year"?

The stakes are very high today, please have some perspective.

5/03/2006 08:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

As RainMan says: "Price-drops, lots and lots of price-drops".


72 Meadowbrook Rd, Short Hills
MLS 2268702

* On the market for 90+ days at $750K last summer. No Takers, taken off the market at end of summer.

* Back on the market April 19th at $730K. No takers.

* Now down to $699K, will a Greater Fool please step forward.



93 Meadowbrook Rd, Short Hills
MLS 2259341

* Mar 22, 2006 - $799,000. No takers.

* Apr 6, 2006 - $749,900. No takers.

* May 3, 2006 - $725,000, will a Greater Fool please step forward.



18 Meadowbrook Rd, Short Hills
MLS 2253723

* Mar 5, 2005 - $879,000. No takers.

* May 3, 2006 - $829,000, will a Greater Fool please step forward.



2 Clive Hills Rd, Short Hills
MLS 2268017

Listed at $1.1 million at the start of April. No takers.

Dropped to $988K on April 18th. No takers.

Dropped to $949K on May 3rd, will a Greater Fool please step forward.



270 White Oak Ridge Road, Short Hills
MLS 2246790

* Feb 15, 2006 - $899K. No takers.

* Mar 15, 2006 - $889K. No takers.

* Apr 27, 2006 - $845K, will a Greater Fool please step forward.



23 Mount Ararat Rd, Short Hills
MLS 2268671

* Apr 19, 2006 - $649K. No takers.

* May 3, 2006 - $619K, will a Greater Fool please step forward.



Realtors, practice the new terminology for 2006:

* "languishing on the market"

* "prices dropping in $50,000 blocks"

* "months on the market"

5/03/2006 09:09:00 PM  

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