Wednesday, June 21, 2006

Northern New Jersey Weekly Inventory Update

Please note, the inventory numbers provided this week represent a two week change in inventory. I do not have the inventory data for last week..

(Garden State Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)

6/7 - 17,708
6/21 - 18,240 (3% Increase)

(New Jersey Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)

6/7 - 8,725
6/21 - 9,034 (3.5% Increase)

MLSGuide -
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)

6/7 - 2,568
6/21 - 2,540 (1.1% Decrease)


Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

Grim, I'm curious as to why your GSMLS numbers never seem to tie to what I see at the site.

6/21/2006 01:24:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

If you are talking about the main page of the GSMLS site, it's because I track a subset of the total counties represented by that system..


6/21/2006 01:28:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Currently, there are 31,238 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site. For Residential Properties that are Multiple Listed with Garden State, 99% are available to be searched on this site."

There about 2,000 sales per month, so 31,000 divided by 2,000 = 15+ months.

6/21/2006 01:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

unrealtor -
any way to track the prices on those 2000 sales?

6/21/2006 01:38:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

inventory growing and already +70% y-o-y and we're approaching the dog days of summer. it's going to get ugly out there. the only thing that will be uglier is trying to sell next spring. i expect a bloodbath as sellers compete with each other to move their overpriced homes with a likely 7%+ interest rates.

6/21/2006 01:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

the bloodbath seems to be moving forward a few months every few months. seems like the only ones suffering are realtors. more volume, less sales.
if the sellers don't want to give up their money, ultimately buyers lose.
hope for a fire sale but don't count on it. start checking out rentals or other states. more importantly - save! your money will be good for something - NJ or not.

all the best.

6/21/2006 02:20:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

When are the auctions going to start like they did during the last housing bust.

Those sorry son of a bitches..


6/21/2006 02:22:00 PM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

"the bloodbath seems to be moving forward a few months every few months."

It doesn't have to (and probably won't) happen all at once. The long term outlook is not good for sellers. Patience will be rewarded.

6/21/2006 02:35:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"any way to track the prices on those 2000 sales?"

Grim usually posts a general sales summary each month with % change trend.

Here's a post you may have missed:
(triple-click to select long links)

And also here:
(triple-click to select long links)

6/21/2006 02:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 3:20pm "if the sellers don't want to give up their money, ultimately buyers lose."

That thinking is exactly how the sellers will lose.
"their money" is only "their money" if a buyer pays them. The funny thing is most people think like you do, which is great for those of us that are of an informed opportunistic nature, time is our friend.

6/21/2006 02:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Housing equity...paper gains that the naive have been leveraging against via helllocks oops helocs.

6/21/2006 02:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To think people did this to themselves in their primary residence; where they house (shelter) their wife and kids.

6/21/2006 03:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A house "home" is wood, nails, brick. Eats cash when occupied by the owner.

6/21/2006 03:02:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Just FYI. I put Grim’s GSMLS inventory numbers in a spreadsheet from January 1 - today. The weekly inventory increases show almost perfectly linear growth (r2=0.984) over time. If inventory keeps rising at its current rate, the January 1st year to date inventory will double on September 18, 2006 from 11,010 to 22,020.

6/21/2006 03:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

price reduction update...
Looks like this house was reduced again...MLS ID#: 616391
Started at $490,000 then dropped to $465,000 now listed at $435,000. Nice percentage drop.
Slaughter the pigs!
Not interested in this property just watching it as a barometer.

wait and SAVE!

6/21/2006 03:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anybody have inventory graph for 1989-90?


6/21/2006 03:23:00 PM  
Anonymous dream theaterr said...

Can someone point me to websites for properties for sales in Middlesex and Somerset county? I want to track prices for 3bed,2ba <325K houses. Plan to buy if/when they drop to the <$250K in the next 2-3 years, otherwise I'll have to move out of state to a more affordable place!

6/21/2006 03:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That thinking is exactly how the sellers will lose.
"their money" is only "their money" if a buyer pays them.

well if their equity increased by 100%, isn't it still up to them if they wanna give up 20% of that or not? they may decide to hold on to their paper gains until the "right time". even those who put no money down made huge profits if they got in early enough. surely there are those who got in late. but I doubt there's enough of them to cause a fire sale.
anyway, I honestly hope you are correct. I'm just finding hard to be as confident as most of you are that a huge bust is in the bag. it seems more realistic to me that we will stay in a stand-off with prices flattening for a long period rather than a severe decline by next year.
then again, I wasn't around during the early 90s. hope you guys who were can share it with us.

6/21/2006 03:34:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

For the curious in Bergen County, here are the number of residential SFH listings NOT including condos & co-ops from NJMLS

03/03 3,132
03/10 3,230
03/17 3,337
03/23 3,432
03/30 3,543
04/05 3,628
04/12 3,706
04/19 3,781
04/24 3,856
05/08 4,082
05/15 4,174
05/22 4,292
05/29 4,352
06/05 4,382
06/12 4,353
06/19 4,526
As of today: 4,558

6/21/2006 03:40:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Can someone point me to websites for properties for sales in Middlesex and Somerset county?"

Try, which provides national coverage.

6/21/2006 03:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 4:34pm

I believe (subjective of course) that over the next 5 years the majority of home sales are going to come from people who have owned their homes for over 10 years. They will probably receive fair market value which is nowhere near the 01' to 05' fed funny money values.
Their will be some foreclosures/deaths/divorce of funny money types who will get smoked. I see 98 prices in 08

6/21/2006 03:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Adjusted for "published" inflation.

6/21/2006 03:47:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

most people can't just stay in their current residences and wait this thing out. people have to move for all sorts of reasons, primarily they have more kids and run out of room or retire. in the next 12-18 months i expect housing to continue to decline until some bottom is found. my personal opinion is houses will be selling for 5-10% less than right now come a bit into the spring selling season. watch the explosion of inventory finally take it's toll.

for anon who thinks it the months keep pushing out for the real downturn, note the peak was just hit less than a year ago. these things are measured in quarters not months. the tide has finally turned and a confluence of factors will bring housing prices down. sit back and watch, save and you will be rewarded the longer you wait.

6/21/2006 03:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

thanks richard. I certainly will sit back and watch and wait to see what happens next year. hopefully, there's a lot of people who will be willing and able to wait as well. the more of us the better.


6/21/2006 04:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The reality about this housing chicanery.
From Pimco Mark Kiesel

The CEO Bill Gross is on the Forbes 400...and he and Paul McCulley are definetly not empty suits...birds of a feather...

6/21/2006 05:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

6/21/2006 05:52:00 PM  
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