Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Northern New Jersey Weekly Inventory Update

GSMLS - http://www.gsmls.com
(Garden State Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)


6/21 - 18,240
6/28 - 18,526 (1.6% Increase)


NJMLS - http://www.njmls.com
(New Jersey Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)


6/21 - 9,034
6/28 - 9,165 (1.5% Increase)


MLSGuide - http://www.mlsguide.com
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)


6/21 - 2,540
6/28 - 2,621 (3.2% Increase)

48 Comments:

Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

For the curious in Bergen County, here are the number of residential SFH listings NOT including condos & co-ops from NJMLS

03/03 3,132
03/10 3,230
03/17 3,337
03/23 3,432
03/30 3,543

04/05 3,628
04/12 3,706
04/19 3,781
04/24 3,856

05/08 4,082
05/15 4,174
05/22 4,292
05/29 4,352

06/05 4,382
06/12 4,353
06/19 4,526
06/26 4,588
As of today: 4,610

Rich

6/28/2006 02:02:00 PM  
Blogger BergenBuyer said...

Thanks Rich, 1.5x increase in inventory in 4 months. Do you know what the norm or what last year's was?

Do you have # of homes sold for Bergen too?

6/28/2006 02:06:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Grim,

when do #s start dropping historically do to the school year scramble, July or August?

6/28/2006 02:15:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Currently, there are 31,610 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site. For Residential Properties that are Multiple Listed with Garden State, 99% are available to be searched on this site.

http://www.gsmls.com/

6/28/2006 02:22:00 PM  
Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

If you're selling your home, consider . Faded walls and worn woodwork reduce a lot more than house appeal. They cut into your price. Invest in a few cans of paint. Brighten up the interior. .


ugh...how about drinking a few cans of paint?

6/28/2006 02:28:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

We've got our first 7% 30 Year Fixed..

From Bankrate:

Weekly Home Mortgage Rates

30 Year

June 28 Prev. Wk
percent+points
Boston 6.91 + 0.15 6.81 + 0.22
Chicago 7.07 + 0.06 6.98 + 0.05
Dallas 6.93 + 0.52 6.84 + 0.48
Detroit 7.00 + 0.03 6.87 + 0.04
Houston 6.98 + 0.43 6.81 + 0.55
Los Angeles 6.96 + 0.53 6.87 + 0.47
New York 6.88 + 0.24 6.80 + 0.23
Philadelphia 6.83 + 0.38 6.70 + 0.40
San Francisco 6.98 + 0.34 6.93 + 0.24
DC Metro 6.73 + 0.74 6.68 + 0.63
National Avg 6.93 + 0.34 6.83 + 0.33

5 Year ARM

June 28 Prev. Wk
percent+points
Average 6.59 +0.30 6.49 +0.32

grim

6/28/2006 02:40:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim said...
We've got our first 7% 30 Year Fixed..


I think Bob Toll asked someone to wake him up at this point.

6/28/2006 02:46:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Do you know what the norm or what last year's was?

Do you have # of homes sold for Bergen too?


I don't know what the norm is what or last years inventory numbers were. It will only show me CURRENT inventory which is why I have been tracking it.

Here is a snapshot of the number of homes sold from 3/3/2006 until today.
Sold: 1,823
Avg. List: $720,747
Avg. Sold: $676,200
Med. Sold: $515,000

6/28/2006 02:58:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

For this year (SFH only):

Sold: 2,571
Avg. List: $756,874
Avg. Sold: $699,891
Median Sold: $519,000

6/28/2006 03:11:00 PM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

6/28/2006 03:39:00 PM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

Grim, what counties do your GSMLS numbers exclude, other than Hunterdon?

I'm trying to reconcile your number with the website.

Thanks, as always.

6/28/2006 03:39:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

I meant to say..

...due to the school year scramble, July or August?

6/28/2006 03:41:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Counties:

Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren.

Residential single family properties (condos and coops included).

No multifamily, commercial, rental, businesses, or land.

grim

6/28/2006 03:46:00 PM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

Thank you, Grim.

6/28/2006 03:53:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Many sellers are finding they must cut their initial asking prices by 10 percent or more to entice buyers, according to brokers. Real-estate agents sound more like car dealers as they use phrases like "cash back," "buyer rebates" and "must sell." They speak of being "skunked" at open houses, meaning, no one showed up, even after the sellers made "price improvements. I've learned to bring a good book with me," says agent Christopher Rotondo, as he sits alone at an open house in Newport, Rhode Island.

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=960


Booooyaa!

6/28/2006 04:05:00 PM  
Blogger BergenBuyer said...

Rich,

Thanks. So about 107 homes are being sold per week in Bergen from 3/3 until today. While we're avg'g an increase in inventory of about 87 homes per week from 3/3 until today. So each week 107 houses are sold and 194 houses are added. Plus 2, minus 1 equals excess inventory.

6/28/2006 04:36:00 PM  
Anonymous maryannenj said...

minutesfromNYC said...
If you're selling your home, consider . Faded walls and worn woodwork reduce a lot more than house appeal. They cut into your price. Invest in a few cans of paint. Brighten up the interior. .

Yup, one of the reasons a house doesn't sell is because it doesn't "show" well. And if your kitchen is falling apart, invest 10-15K in a home depot kitchen.

http://homebuying.about.com/cs/howtobuy/a/distressed.htm

This is a little old, but good info.

http://www.homes.wsj.com/buildimprove/20040706-fletcher.html

6/28/2006 04:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Minutes from NYC said "ugh...how about drinking a few cans of paint?"



Funny sh.., I almost spat out my coffee!

6/28/2006 05:08:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

i'm tracking about 100 properties in the $500-$700k range that are dispersed across mostly the top and some second top tier towns in the bergen, essex, union and morris county areas. i've been tracking them all from feb to as late as march. only 8, count em 8 are under contract. it's clear to see why. they're overpriced even after multiple price reductions totalling on average 10%. it seems the buying community has collectively called a walkout strike. from what i'm hearing from realtors who work these towns, there are very few showings.

i think grim's post today on what you would give for a house while a bit skewed towards 'bubble believers' seems enough of a sampling of the potential buying community on what properties are worth. in general it seems current prices today (meaning last asking price after whatever reductions) are still ~15-20% above what would get many to buy.

6/28/2006 05:55:00 PM  
Blogger Mad Canuck said...

in general it seems current prices today (meaning last asking price after whatever reductions) are still ~15-20% above what would get many to buy.

That is now... once the prices really start dropping, I wonder if people will be as willing to buy. Even if a house were 20% cheaper than it was a year ago, would you buy it if you knew the price was still dropping? Or, would you wait for the market to bottom out first?

If this "waiting for the bottom" mentality does take hold, I am wondering if it will cause the market to over-correct, dropping significantly below fair-market value before beginning its recovery.

6/28/2006 08:09:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is your POS not showing well, are you not getting any offers, have a lame real estate agent? If the answer is yes to any or all of these, then take a torch to you POS. It's an easy and timely way out!

6/28/2006 08:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mad Canuck
I'm with you. As I said earlier I don't want to catch a falling knife. One of the reasons why most of us strongly feel about a market correction is because of all the ARM loans that are about to reset next year. The problem though is that 30% of all new mortgage applications in 2006 were ARMed. This means significant portions will reset again in 2008 and more will reset in 2009! I don't see how you can believe in ARM loans causing a market correction and at the same time completely ignore the fact for at 10-15% reduction in home values. The original problem is not yet solved!

6/28/2006 09:27:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Interesting piece from Bloomberg on hedge fund fraud and regulation:

Hedge Funds Need More Scrutiny, Senate Panel Is Told

Not 'directly' housing related, but this is one issue you are goinig to want to keep tabs on in the next few years.

grim

6/28/2006 09:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Stan said...

It looks like condos are still selling in Hoboken. My block has seen about 8 condos for sale in the last 3 months and all of them are now sold or under contract.

I doubt if an increase in time-on-market from 2 days to 6 weeks is going to make sellers substantially reduce prices.

6/28/2006 09:44:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

For the late night readers, an interesting discussion on GSEs going on over at The Housing Bubble Blog:

‘No Need To Endure’ The GSE ‘Test’

6/28/2006 09:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

@ grim ...

interesting discussion..
They sound more pessimistic than me :)

6/28/2006 10:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks, Grim. Thanks alot.

Another sleepless night thinking about the bailout.

Pat

6/28/2006 10:16:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

the hoboken condos are most likely first time buyers in their 20's who haven't seen a downturn in real estate being too young and probably also funding part of the purchase with baby boomer parents money. i've seen it too many times. knock yourself out. not being educated in the market due to youth does not get you a different outcome.

6/28/2006 10:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ok, we are finally seeing a real movement towards a buyers market. Although this is not even the start of the first phase of this bear market is housing. We are for sure, as you guys point out, that we have reached the tipping point. But I am seriously wondering what the housing market will be like in 10-15 years?? Anyone?

Lets face it, this state is about ready to collapse and proximity to nyc or philie will not save it. Taxes are sky high, no jobs (starbucks, fastfood, walmart does not count), buisness are leaving NJ, jobs are leaving, inventory on housing is sky rocketing, no one can afford to drive in this state (if you have a BMW 300 series, no offense, thats the BMW people drive whom really can't afford a BMW, but want to project the image as if they can). Low wage immigrants from all over are taking over the state. Mom and pop store that once dominated the downtowns are a thing of the past.

Basically, NJ is the titanic. She is a sinking ship. Boomers are going to leave and head for tax friendly states (if they were smart).

Even if houses drop 40-50%, who the hell would want it? Who wants to live here? Nobody. This state literally has nothing to offer.
Sorry, Bon jovi and Bruce Springsteen doesn't count, they don't live in NJ either....lol. They got the hell out too..:)

6/29/2006 05:01:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Anonymous said.

"Sorry, Bon jovi and Bruce Springsteen doesn't count, they don't live in NJ either....lol. They got the hell out too..:)"

Actually they do have homes here. Springsteen is in Rumson and I believe BonJovi is close by at the shore. But still that gives me no consolation.

6/29/2006 05:55:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

NJ like the titanic,
thats a great way to describe
NJ.

And most folks don't even know.

With this flood thats going on,
some areas should stay under water,
like Trenton, what in the world
does that town have to offer,
except shootings, gangs,welfare,
the state workers,
They have sucked the taxpayers
dry, and now they want more.

6/29/2006 06:04:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

yes, bon jovi and Springsteen have houses here.

then again, they have more money than all of us combined on this blog site. They have homes all over the place. You think they spend most of their time here in NJ? I wouldn't if I was them.

6/29/2006 08:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I was offered a state job in Trenton as a tax accountant but turned it down because there were people selling crack right outside the building. Trenton really is a mess and it literally is under water and should probably stay that way.

6/29/2006 08:51:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"if you have a BMW 300 series, no offense, thats the BMW people drive whom really can't afford a BMW, but want to project the image as if they can"

--------

Too many insecure people posting on this blog.

The BMW 3-series has been on Car & Driver's "Top 10" list for over 10 years straight.

It's a driver's car. It's also a "status symbol" for some, but that doesn't stop it from being one of the best handling cars on the road, regardless of price.

Not everyone buys things because what other people think, but instead because of what they think.

6/29/2006 09:01:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Drive a 300s series, then drive a M series...

you will see what I mean.

Don't just read about, drive it.

wink..wink...

6/29/2006 09:23:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

next he will tell you a lexus is not the same as a camery....

6/29/2006 09:32:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Anonymous said...
yes, bon jovi and Springsteen have houses here.
then again, they have more money than all of us combined on this blog site. They have homes all over the place. You think they spend most of their time here in NJ? I wouldn't if I was them.
6/29/2006 09:39:02 AM

Springsteen works out at the gym that is two blocks from my office [Red Bank]. One of my partners sees him there all the time. He says the Boss doesn't have an ounce of fat on him.

6/29/2006 09:43:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

These cars are status symbols, first and foremost.

Discussions of handling or performance are irrelevant. How many of these drivers actually take these cars to the track or autocross?

Ask your average M driver what camber and caster settings they prefer.

grim

6/29/2006 09:53:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

only a moron would post
about driving a BMW on
this blog. someone who
is full of his self.

6/29/2006 10:25:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Don't just read about, drive it."

-----


I do (wink, wink)

6/29/2006 11:01:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"These cars are status symbols, first and foremost."

---

To some, perhaps, but not to everyone. You don't need to drive on a racetrack to appreciate excellent handling and performance.

It's ironic people label others who drive a certain car as 'superficial' as they rush to judgement about a person because of which car they purchased.

6/29/2006 11:10:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Taxes are sky high, no jobs (starbucks, fastfood, walmart does not count), buisness are leaving NJ, jobs are leaving, inventory on housing is sky rocketing, no one can afford to drive in this state (if you have a BMW 300 series, no offense, thats the BMW people drive whom really can't afford a BMW, but want to project the image as if they can). Low wage immigrants from all over are taking over the state. Mom and pop store that once dominated the downtowns are a thing of the past.
Oh, the drama! Yeah, NJ is coming up on some hard times, but relax.

Taxes are high, housing is high, and there's a lot of immigrants. Sounds a lot like the other wealthiest states in the nation. I'm sure Arkansas and South Carolina would trade predicaments with us in a second...

6/29/2006 11:33:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

It's ironic people label others who drive a certain car as 'superficial' as they rush to judgement about a person because of which car they purchased.
6/29/2006 12:10:00 PM

Spending money on something that is:

costly;

certain to lose substantial value in a short period of time;

expensive to maintain, operate and insure;

impractical to operate in many situations [e.g., weather, bad neighborhoods];

generally not considered reliable;

attracts law enforement for summons;

a large public statement whether intended or not;

associated with people that are visceral, or else often have little brain functioning beyond their autonomic nervous system.

sounds somewhat superficial - no?

6/29/2006 12:14:00 PM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

Chicago,

It is a matter of priorities. If someone is buying a car because they want it for the car itself and the handling/performance/features, then it is worth it.

To many people, though, a car is an appliance like a toaster. For them, it gets from A to B.

To assume that people buy a sports car only for status is a fallacy.

6/29/2006 12:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"To assume that people buy a sports car only for status is a fallacy."

------

Indeed. Many think people should avoid things that make them happy, because someone else may disapprove?

Not a chance in hell.

Love my car, and bought it (no loan) for me, not anyone else.

6/29/2006 01:54:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Love my car, and bought it (no loan) for me, not anyone else.
6/29/2006 02:54:18 PM

Next time you have $50K-$75K to waste on something frivolous, I'll give you my bank routing number.

Enjoy driving your sinkhole, hopefully it lowers your blood pressure.

6/29/2006 02:00:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Next time you have $50K-$75K to waste on something frivolous, I'll give you my bank routing number.

Enjoy driving your sinkhole, hopefully it lowers your blood pressure."

--------

My my, so much anger and resentment.

And you're not even familiar with the price of the vehicle you're demonizing (about $10,000 more than a honda accord)

$10,000 doesn't even register on the financial radar of most people, especially when vehicles are generally owned for 5 or more years.

A $10,000 dent in 5 years worth of salary is a complete non-factor, yet it gives daily enjoyment.

Should people also not go on vacations? Is happiness and enjoying life overrated?

6/29/2006 03:02:00 PM  
Blogger Josephine723 said...

I drive a Saab 95. What does that say about me?

Back to serious stuff:

Richard, what do you consider the top tier and second tier towns in Bergen County. I am curious as to what some views are. I am going to be in the market for a house after my marriage in December 06. I am in Cliffside Park right now which is not in the tiers but comfortable at the moment.

Thanks

6/29/2006 06:37:00 PM  

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