Monday, June 05, 2006

The Otteau Report - May 2006

SPRING MARKET STALLS EARLY

"The New Jersey housing market took a sharp turn for the worse in April as contract-sales activity declined 11% from the prior month and ran 20% below the April 2005 level. At the same time, the inventory of unsold homes on the market increased by nearly 6,000 homes in April and now stands 71% higher than a year ago. That this deterioration comes in the midst of the prime spring selling season when home sales would normally be accelerating provides solid confirmation that the transition to a buyer-controlled market is now complete."

"Different from one year ago when buyers were competing with each other by increasing their offering prices, it is now the sellers who find themselves in a scramble to gain the interest of buyers. In most cases, that will require a reduction in asking price to recapture the lost sense-of-urgency which dissipated once inventory increased and home prices ceased their upward spiral."

"In examining the market from the perspective of price levels, there are significant disparities. The unsold inventory of homes on the market presently accounts for a 7-month supply (up from 3-months one year ago). This supply is however less for lower priced homes as demonstrated in the table at right (6-months below $600k, 10-months between $600k-$1-million, and 14-months above $1-million). The weakness in the market in excess of $1-million is likely to worsen in coming years due to a combination of economic and demographic trends which will further disadvantage the luxury home market in New Jersey."


Source: The Otteau Group, http://www.otteau.com

160 Comments:

Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

Great report. Grim - Thx for bringing this news.

I wonder how NJ newspapers play out this report. I bet some newspapers (RE supported ones), will still find good things to report on.

6/05/2006 06:23:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

DOA!!!!!!

HOUSING BUST!

Price Coooooolapse anyday now ANYDAY!

Anyone buying at these prices deserves to be an underwater bagholder, especially those who have been warned and read this blog.

No whining when you are down 25-30% on your house or 50% on your condo.

Good lcuk if you buy now at these RIPOFF PRICES.

Boycott Chatham Houses!

Boycott Ponzi priced Houses!

NO Bids No MAAS No NOTTT"""ING.

Cheers

Bob

6/05/2006 06:37:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

GLUTS & GLUTS & GLUTS OF INVENTORY PILING UP ON THE CLEARANCE RACKS.

"Welcome to the new home of Garden State MLS’ public search engine. Currently, there are 30,116 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site. For Residential Properties that are Multiple Listed with Garden State"

AND THE REAL ESTTAE MOUTH PIECES SAY THIS IS NORMAL AND THE MARKET IS "COOLING"

HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA~~~~~~~~~

NOT!

THE FLOOR IS ABOUT TO FALL OUT ON REAL ESATTE PRICES. ANYDAY NOW ANYDAY.

BACK OFF AND ENJOY THE 40,000 HOUSE PARTY IN THE NEXT 3-4 MONTHS AS INVNETORY JUST GOES PARABOLIC UP NEXT FEW MONTHS.

WATCH!

NO BIDS NO NOTTTT"ING ZERO

BOOOOOOOOOYCOTT MONTHLY SLAVE PAYMENT HOUSES

BOOOOOOOOYCOTT CHATHAM HOUSES!

Boooooooooyaaaaaaaaa

Bob

6/05/2006 06:42:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"The unsold inventory of homes on the market presently accounts for a 7-month supply.."

7 month supply of inventory.

Wait til sales grind to a total halt. Months supply will skyrocket near and above double digit months.

The the greedy grubbing sellers and Starving realtors will be in papapapapa PANIC mode!

Realtors then will finally be MANIPULATING GREEDY SELLERS t6o plunge down their prices.
Lets see how they feel.

Payback time.

Make sure you are compensated for your time patience and hard work waiting this mania out!

Boycott Chatham Houses!

Boycott Pozi priced houses

No BIds No MAAAS No NOTT"ING

Cheers

Bob

6/05/2006 06:48:00 AM  
Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

On the corner of my block there were about 5 open house signs!!

In other news, we looked at two open houses. One in Lyndhurst, a $365,000 mess which was original and neglected from the year 1920. The other, a poorly insulated cape in North Arlington. The Realtor told us that the owner was very motivated because they are living in another house.

Both houses were far from a bargain. Although, some who anonymously post/troll here would argue that the NYC Metro area is not over priced because everyone here pulls in over 200k a year.

I would not buy either house even if they dropped the price by 100k, and neither should any of you. If people don't bid prices will come down. The owners probably paid under 50k for the house. Be happy that your 50k purchase is not worth $200k...400k??? yeah right!

6/05/2006 06:50:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The NYC FALLACY!
NYC CO-OPS Plunged 50% in ealy 1990's and in many cases noone would even buy them. It took 10 years to breakeven.

I wonder How long it will take to breakeven this time around 15 years? 20 years?

With interest rates going up and incomes stagnant to down and property taxes soaring ='s Bad news ahead for years to come for housing prices.


Boycott Invincible Chatham Houses

Boooooooycott BIDDING Unless it is at leat 30% lower than 2005 peak prices NOT some manipulated price

Watch the starving realtors and Greedy money grubbing sellers battle it out of the next 6 months.

Haha

Boooooooyaaaaaaa

Bob

6/05/2006 06:58:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Read Up Buyers!

‘All Designed To Keep People Buying Homes’

This United Features Syndicate article has the latest twist on interest only loans. “A relatively benign form of interest-only mortgage is gaining popularity as the loan of choice among buyers who have affordability issues. The newer type comes with fixed rates that can never change. Borrowers pay only interest for the first five, seven or even 10 years. When the initial term expires, the payment increases to an amount that allows the borrower to pay off the balance over the loan’s remaining years.”

“‘It’s a very low-risk mortgage,’ says Doug Duncan, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Assn. ‘It’s essentially tax-deductible rent’ for the first few years, Duncan said. And by the end of the interest-only period, household income should have grown enough that ‘if the borrower has been reasonably prudent, he should be well-prepared’ for the big jump coming in his or her house payment.”

“If you stretched to get into the house and were betting on appreciation to keep you afloat, you could run into a serious problem.”

“‘Even with your eyes wide open, you can still get hammered,’ Keith Gumbinger, VP at a mortgage information firm warns. He suspects that most interest-only borrowers anticipate either selling their homes or refinancing them before the interest-only period expires.”

You fall for this CON-JOB YOU DESERVE THE @$$ whipping you will get in a few years.

BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAA

Bob

6/05/2006 07:05:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"On the corner of my block there were about 5 open house signs!! "

Heh. By me there were seven. Not to one-up you or anything.

BTW, did anyone catch that REMAX tv ad where the voice-over states (probably with a straight face) "and now REMAX has even more listings to choose from"?

Yeah, no kidding.

6/05/2006 07:12:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Saw a handful of new billboards pop up. Can't remember if it was Coldwell or C21. Something along the lines of:

"Don't think of it as real estate, think of it as buying a home"

Psychological manipulation at it's finest.

grim

6/05/2006 07:19:00 AM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

their whores grim.

6/05/2006 07:32:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I can't wait to see the May figures. How long do you think it will take before those figures are available?

Cheers,
ChrisXS

6/05/2006 07:38:00 AM  
Anonymous X-UNDERWRITER said...

All I can say is I remember what the heads of the investment firms kept saying in the early 90's during the stock market crash, "it's coming back, don't worry". I believed them that time which turned out to be a huge mistake.
Having been a mortgage underwriter from 2001 to 2005, I saw firsthand the total dereliction of common sense and risk management in the mortgage industry.
Don't believe the sales people this time around either

6/05/2006 07:45:00 AM  
Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

"Houses have historically shown that they go up in value. If you wait, you may be eventually priced out of the market"

6/05/2006 07:51:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hahahaha!

Ask the bagholder who bought at last peak. 10 years to breakeven, but in that 10 year period if you had to sell could have lost 20-30%.

Booooycott Chatham Houses

Booooooooycott Realtors and greedy money grubbing sellers Watch'em feud

hahaha

Bob

6/05/2006 07:54:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

More manipulation.

Beware!

Welcome to the new home of Garden State MLS’ public search engine. Currently, there are 30,099 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site. For Residential Properties that are Multiple Listed with Garden State


was 30116 house of inventory.

Just another conjob of taking listing off and relisting. This is deception!

Boooooooyaaaaaaaa

Bob

6/05/2006 07:56:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

wow, those numbers are aweful! No way to spin them otherwise. This is playing out just as everyone on this board has predicted.

6/05/2006 08:07:00 AM  
Anonymous X-UNDERWRITER said...

minutesfromNYC said...

"Houses have historically shown that they go up in value. If you wait, you may be eventually priced out of the market"

Never before have people been able to get financing with basically no questions asked. Have you ever heard of a NINA loan? (No Income No Asset) That's where you can get up to 95% financing and only state your name, a two year residence history, your social security number, and your date of birth....no "Do you have a job to pay for this mortgage?" or "Where did you get the money for even this measly downpayment? Did you borrow it?"
Lenders have been doing thousands of these loans every year. What it does is increase the pool of applicants to basically anybody that doesn't have bad credit. The rates weren't even that bad.
The housing industry has never seen such a meteoric rise in values, much of which is due to the lenders elliminating qualifying standards alltogether
I remember a quote from the head real estate analyst from Merril Lynch about a year ago. I forget his name but he said, "Never before in american history has there been an asset class that has experienced such a dramatic rise in valuations without a subsequent serious correction"
Think about it....

6/05/2006 08:08:00 AM  
Blogger rymingrealtor said...

Excuse my ignorance but what is

NO MAAS?

Thanks
KL

6/05/2006 08:17:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pesche that's not a nice thing to say about whores.

6/05/2006 08:22:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't offend them.

6/05/2006 08:23:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Easy Sideshow Bob.

BTS

6/05/2006 08:25:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

grim,

Is there a chart available that can compare this to jan to april 2005

6/05/2006 08:36:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Grim,

I caught this article about NJs competitive disadvantages. Apparently the Brookings Institute is lloking at NJ housing prices as a factor undermining NJs economy.

Economic Call to Arms
By NJBIZ Staff, Shankar P. - 5/29/2006


TRENTON - New Jersey’s economy has a lot going for it, but it is broken and needs fixing.

That is the upshot of a no-nonsense report released this month by the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. The think tank paper, “Prosperity at Risk: Toward a Competitive New Jersey,” says the state ranks near the bottom in wage growth, is replacing high-paying jobs with low-wage positions and since 1995 has lost more high-tech jobs than any other state.

The study highlights the links between the state’s declining economic competitiveness and its land-use policies, rising housing costs and growing economic disparities. It benchmarks New Jersey’s policies against the best practices nationwide and recommends corrective measures.

Not since Harvard Professor Michael Porter laid out a strategy for the growth of the New Jersey’s biotech industry three years ago has a study provided so sweeping a look at the state’s competitive position. Major recommendations of the report, which was commissioned by the Trenton-based nonprofit New Jersey Future, include:

• Boost production of moderately priced housing and provide residential choices that offer access to jobs and educational opportunities.

• Focus more on public transit-oriented housing and commercial development.

• Target “crushing” economic disparities in terms of race, class and place of residence.

Brookings fellow Robert Puentes, who cowrote the report with colleague Bruce Katz, says the authors found in New Jersey a state “crowded, not just in population, but also in terms of intellectual capacity and reforms that have been initiated.”

The study was prepared for members of Gov. Jon Corzine’s administration, with research support from Princeton University’s Policy Research Institute, the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University, and the Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service at New York University.

Brookings spokesperson Brendan Gilfillan says the Corzine administration has begun to address some key issues raised by the study. Corzine’s “budget proposal makes disciplined investments in critical areas like affordable housing,” says Gilfillan, “while putting the state on the path to fiscal responsibility.”

The study found that while New Jersey boasted “very high” incomes, it ranked third from the bottom in wage increases from 2001 to 2005, with an 8.9% gain over the period as compared with an average increase of 11.5% for the country.

New Jersey’s heaviest recent job losses have come in high-wage sectors including telecommunications, and professional and technical services (see table). The largest job gains came in low-wage sectors such as food services and ambulatory health care services.

From 2001 to 2005 New Jersey lost 81,798 jobs with average weekly wages of nearly $700; it gained 80,783 jobs with average earnings of just $437 over the same stretch .

Brookings overlays the job numbers with data that show the state is struggling with the issues of housing affordability and development patterns. For example, New Jersey residents shell out more than 35% of their incomes for housing, a greater percentage than any other states beside California and Hawaii.

Meanwhile, say Katz and Puentes, local zoning restrictions and other rules that discourage new homebuilding can raise typical home prices by $40,000 to $80,000. “This prices approximately 430,000 New Jersey households out of the market,” says the study.

“During the entire decade of the 1990s,” they note, “two-thirds of New Jersey’s municipalities built zero multifamily housing units.” The result: “Just 12 [of 566] municipalities have 52% of the affordable housing units in the state—but only 14% of the households.” These municipalities include Newark, Jersey City, Camden and Trenton.

Besides calling for the construction of more affordable housing, the report recommends abolition of regional agreements that allow wealthy cities to pay poorer towns to assume their state-mandated obligations to build affordable places to live.

Puentes and Katz further call for the elimination of governmental “turf battles and misunderstandings” by having the New Jersey Office of Smart Growth coordinate land-use policies of the departments of Community Affairs, Environmental Protection, Transportation and Agriculture.

What’s next? “A report like this does not get understood or implemented overnight,” says Ingrid Reed, director of the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University. “It says you’ve got a lot of problems, and you cannot really address them unless you let people know what the goals are and you have the strategy to meet those goals.”

“We’ll only know if we achieved our objectives a year from now,” says Barbara Lawrence, cofounder of New Jersey Future and executive director of the Henry and Marilyn Taub Foundation in Teaneck, which underwrote the $175,000 Brookings study along with the William Penn Foundation of Philadelphia. “We wanted to get this to the new governor at the beginning of his administration,” says Lawrence. “He has a window of opportunity.”


E-mail to shankarp@njbiz.com

6/05/2006 08:38:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Link to the powerpoint Brookings presented is below.


http://www.brookings.edu/metro/speeches/20060501_Trenton.pdf

6/05/2006 08:40:00 AM  
Blogger Richard said...

wow. the y-o-y numbers are bigger than i thought we'd see at this time. i didn't expect such growth in inventory until late this year, early next year.

now remember folks. july is the cutoff for people to register their kids for the next school year. as we get closer expect the panic to start setting in. for those still considered 'smug' sellers, they'll try to hold on a few months longer hoping the housing genie i mean realtor will deliver a qualified buyer at their nosebleed asking price.

there's is NO reason to buy right now unless you have very pressing circumstances where you can't wait. the time to get a decent deal if you don't want to wait until next peak season is nov-dec.

6/05/2006 08:49:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

what a surprise: not everyone can afford to live in a million dollar home.

could it be that the inventory of "million dollar homes" is high because they are not actually worth $1 million+?

Realtors are sh*tting their pants. I'm getting multiple random mailings per week advertising multi million dollar homes with tag lines like "Won't last!"

Are you kidding me?

(A) this home has been on the market since last summer.

(B) there are 50 houses just like it for sale in my town alone

(C) if houses like this one "won't last," then why are you doing blind mailings to every single renter in a 20 mile radius?

sellers might not get it yet, but realtors are already panicking.

6/05/2006 09:01:00 AM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

Metro: I had written to Robert Puentes about this Blog. He wrote back with following.

Thanks for your interest in this work and for the advice on the blog. Actually, in the course of this project we did come across it and read it fairly regularly. The themes voices there are very consistent with our work and with the tenor of the discussion we heard quite clearly throughout the state.

The presentation you are looking for can be found on our website here:

http://www.brookings.edu/metro/speeches/20060501_trenton.pdf/

Please feel free to link to it. Please take a look and do let me know if you have any questions or comments on this.

Robert Puentes


I personally feel, the time is Ripe for folks like us to take affordability issue to Trenton. If we don't talk about it in Media & to legislators no one will. NJ has become so restrictive in development, that it will hurt the state in future.

6/05/2006 09:19:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anyone has this report broken down for < $600K? I would love to see <$300K statistics.

IKY

6/05/2006 09:33:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

OK Shailesh, start doing it... Enough talking about it now.

KL - I think Bob means no more when he writes no maas. However, if he's trying to use Spanish, the correct spelling is no mas.

6/05/2006 09:35:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shailesh,

As I have said before, I would put more faith in the market than the government (in the long-term) to solve the affordability problem, but more power to you for trying.

What concerns me even more is the property tax problem. I don't see an end in sight for property tax increases, esp with the NJ budget woes. It looks to get even worse as businesses and families continue to leave the state, leaving those still here to shoulder the increasing burden. What if anything is being proposed to change this?

Andy

6/05/2006 09:39:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

That's a devastating report for sellers and realtors.

Good luck to all the oblivious "investors" who didn't get out last year.

And realtors who are not already making moves to change careers, will see hard times in the next few years.

The bubble is officially over.

6/05/2006 09:48:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

I am thinking very seriously of leaving NJ. I see the problems of the state as unfixable. The current state of government (not too much but too many) has created the artificial scarcity of housing by rezoning and as the report shows NJ has the most exclusionary zoning in the country. (illegal btw)

The collected self interested municipalities have taken on a siege mentality. Who can blame them, property taxes are killing towns and busting family budgets.

Home rule along with local taxes paying for schools is what is killing NJ's economy.

6/05/2006 09:51:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Standard Pacific Orders Dn 41%;Mkt Wonders About A Crash
Dow Jones Online (VIA WSJ online)
Full article:
http://tinyurl.com/mgr76

NEW YORK -- Home-building stocks traded down Monday after another builder, Standard Pacific Corp.(SPF), joined the growing number of builders reporting a steep decline in housing demand in the current quarter and announcing plans to ratchet down earnings guidance for 2006.

The Irvine, Calif., home builder issued a statement late Friday indicating that orders plummeted 41% in April and May - one of the biggest dropoffs in demand reported yet by a home builder. The news left Wall Street wondering if the sector is heading for a cliff rather than the soft landing that many had been touting.
.
The news has left some analysts wondering if the sector is heading for a crash - and not a short-term correction.
"Given the recent announcements from numerous builders, we believe we are past the point where a 'soft-landing' scenario is possible, and investors should be prepared for further negative headlines in the near-term," Raymond James analyst Rick Murray said in a note

6/05/2006 09:52:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

I was talking with friends at a party Sat night about how blatantly obvious this bubble was a year or more ago to anyone who cared to look. the fact that so many professionals are shocked by what is happening now is what's really amazing

6/05/2006 09:59:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

grim:

i have read this blog for almost as long as it has been in existence. I think you do a great job on here. Though I do not always agree w/ your outlook, I do appreciate your views.

It is thus I am sad to say I will not be reading this blog anymore due to the joyous and offensive nature of some of your posters (namely Bob). These are serious issues, and your insistance on allowing Bob to post the things he does (and others) offends me.

Criticize me if you like, but I know I am not alone in these views.

6/05/2006 10:00:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

just ignore bob like i do. Its not that hard to skip reading a post.

6/05/2006 10:07:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Why don't you just ask Bob if he could tone down his comments?

For reference:

Ground Rules

Personal attacks, inflammatory comments, and off-topic arguments will not be tolerated. Take these discussions off-line.

Foul language, racist, sexist, or any other defamatory remarks will not be tolerated.

Messages that violate these rules will be deleted.

The housing bubble is an emotionally charged topic, and I understand that our discussions get heated at times. We don't need to add any more fuel to this fire.

Please help me to keep our discussions on topic and professional.

6/05/2006 10:11:00 AM  
Blogger Richie said...

It is thus I am sad to say I will not be reading this blog anymore due to the joyous and offensive nature of some of your posters (namely Bob). These are serious issues, and your insistance on allowing Bob to post the things he does (and others) offends me.

Yes, Bob is getting slightly more annoying then usual.

But I don't stop listening to the radio because they play Pop music all day, I just tune it out.


-Richie

6/05/2006 10:12:00 AM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

I will not be reading this blog anymore due to the joyous and offensive nature of some of your posters (namely Bob). These are serious issues, and your insistance on allowing Bob to post the things he does (and others) offends me.

Don't forget unrealtor. He's as bad as Bob, if not worst. There's entirely too much giddiness here.

Notwithstanding that, I encourage you to stay here and speak out against this celebratory attitude. There must be balance here, but it's up to us posters who disagree to provide that balance by stating our views

6/05/2006 10:13:00 AM  
Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

anon @ 11

Why offend so easily? In the grand scheme of things, there are more important things to be offended on rather than someone who posts their opinions on an internet blog

6/05/2006 10:13:00 AM  
Blogger new 200 Mbps BROADBAND over POWER LINES said...

Northern New Jersey Real Estate Bubble: "The Otteau Report - May 2006
SPRING MARKET STALLS EARLY"

Why buy in the DOWNTREND of HOME PRICES in New Jersey ?

NOBODY WANTS TO PAY AN UPSIDE-DOWN MORTGAGE... right !!!!

6/05/2006 10:13:00 AM  
Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

this celebratory attitude

Yes..I have a celebratory attitude as well. I can see why others do too. I am thrilled to see houses on the market and price reductions everywhere. Maybe..just maybe, my financee and I will be able to buy a house next year. I don't want a house for an investment. I want a house in North Jersey because we have family ties here (unfortunately) and want a backyard for grilling and swimming. Why should I be priced out of that dream?

6/05/2006 10:17:00 AM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

I found Bob to be quite amusing. Do I subscribe to his view? No. But none the less, I don't think he is attacking anyone personally. If you don't like his views, just skip them over. It's part of being a mature person to be able to filter out "garbage".

6/05/2006 10:17:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anonymous @ 11:00,

Don't let the door hitya where the good lord split ya!

Get OVER yourself.

jw

6/05/2006 10:18:00 AM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

Even though Real Estate market is coming down, I don't think Orthodox Jewish neighborhood is being affected. I own a small building in the middle of orthodox neighborhood and the price is not going down at all (demand and supply?)

6/05/2006 10:19:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"It is thus I am sad to say I will not be reading this blog anymore due to the joyous and offensive nature of some of your posters (namely Bob)."


Jeez, how lame.

If you don't like Bob's posts, just skip them.

I wish he would consolidate his double and triple posts into a single post, but as noted by someone else, just skip by if they bother you.

Life is full of things that may annoy us. If you're willing to let one or two people which annoy you, stop you from reading this fine blog, it's not clear how you would become successful enough to actually acquire the money to purchase a home in NJ.

As someone who has participated in online discussions for many years, this blog has very few "annoying" posters, and none of them would stop me from accessing the wealth of info and knowledge presented on this blog and its comments.

Now back to the "joyous" discussion.

6/05/2006 10:28:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Don't forget unrealtor. He's as bad as Bob, if not worst. [sic] There's entirely too much giddiness here."

He, I love ya RE "investor"!

But I love the climbing inventory and dropping prices more!

6/05/2006 10:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unrealtor - totally agree with what you're sayign to this guy.
anon 11:00 am : Don't threaten not to read a blog..its not like we'll miss you. We all love this blog and the information it shares.
BM (not bob)

6/05/2006 10:35:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unrealtor - totally agree with what you're sayign to this guy.
anon 11:00 am : Don't threaten not to read a blog..its not like we'll miss you. We all love this blog and the information it shares.
BM (not bob)

6/05/2006 10:36:00 AM  
Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

But I love the climbing inventory and dropping prices more!

ditto!! I can't wait to have a backyard :(

6/05/2006 10:37:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

The only thing that I celebrate is the community I have found here. Mostly very knowledgable people with very good insights. I even appreciate the RE folks weighing in, afterall, they are on the front lines.

AS for Bob, he has blog tourettes. A disability imo. But entertaining at times.

The bubble is just a national disaster. I don't celebrate it, I just see it happening is all.

6/05/2006 10:39:00 AM  
Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

Thanks to this blog, I realize that I am not the only one who thinks house prices are insane...

6/05/2006 10:46:00 AM  
Blogger new 200 Mbps BROADBAND over POWER LINES said...

What will happen in Ocean County Properties if the Bank will Liquidate his assets to recoup their losses fro Mr. Dwek ?????

re: NEW JERSEY REAL ESTATE mogul- SOLOMON Dwek owes $298.1M to Eleven banks along with 42 businesses, partners, investors and others... his real estate properties list of more than 350 properties owned by Solomon Dwek, his wife Pearl, or companies

Asbury Park Press on 06/1/06

6/05/2006 10:57:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

6/05/2006 11:06:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

There must be balance here

Reinvestor,

I’ll concede that this Blog is relatively one sided, but if you want balance, just open up any newspaper, talk to any RE agent or turn-on any news channel. You will hear the NAR party line about how great rising RE prices were for everyone and how now we are ever-so-gently gliding toward a temporary soft and cushy landing as the hottest markets pause to “catch their breath” before resuming their reach for the stars.

I’m attracted to this blog precisely because it is the balance to an otherwise one sided story on real estate.

6/05/2006 11:06:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am thrilled to see houses on the market and price reductions everywhere. Maybe..just maybe, my financee and I will be able to buy a house next year.

see, now that's something to celebrate!

6/05/2006 11:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Leave the blog if you like. There is a lot of wisdom here. Thanks to all who post...including Bob!

6/05/2006 11:18:00 AM  
Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

You will hear the NAR party line about how great rising RE prices were for everyone and how now we are ever-so-gently gliding toward a temporary soft and cushy landing as the hottest markets pause to “catch their breath” before resuming their reach for the stars.

LOL! How true

6/05/2006 11:23:00 AM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

next they will say pesche22 is raceist.

6/05/2006 11:26:00 AM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

the subs. have about 70% of the workforce illegal.

no wonder the building stocks continue to get hit.

if we enforce the laws,, now what

6/05/2006 11:27:00 AM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

Well, here it is. I have created an online petition, that I want to request all to sign. Once we have enough number of signees, I will print the petition and mail it.

Also, if you can suggest better wording or information for the petition, please do so.

http://www.petitionspot.com/petitions/njhome

I have heard the argument of let market work before. I tell you, they will, but that will not change town policies, regulations etc...

Also, we are in democracy. If large section of population faces an issue, it is important that they make it an issue. If you read the petition, we are just asking legislators to look at this issue and debate it see how it can be solved.

Many folks will be skeptical whether this works or not. I will tell you from my personal experience, if done correctly, grass root action does work. It does take lot of effort & support though. Once again, if we will not raise awareness about our issues, no one else will.

6/05/2006 11:37:00 AM  
Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

Shailesh Gala:

If people had half a brain, they wouldn't buy over priced houses.

The public sets the price. If people refuse to pay it, prices will correct. Don't need a petition for that!

6/05/2006 11:45:00 AM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

minutesfromNYC:
Housing is necessity. If you have growing family, you need house, so families are forced to pay whatever it costs, even if it means sometimes going over board. Renting forever will not solve the issue.

Don't live in fantasy land that house prices in NJ are going to go down so much that most folks will be able to afford again. There are systematic issues that don't get corrected by market.

No town today in NJ wants houses for Family with Kids. No one complains about housing affordability, but there is large uproar about Property tax. All towns want businesses & jobs, but not allow housing for the same employees who work there. Every person who buys a house, suddenly turns environmentalist.

My friend, I have worked with Politicians before and understand very well, how current system keeps demand high & supply low, and in turn keep prices high. Most folks do not realize all this, as it is never reported in News Papers. Grass Root action can change things, if there are dedicated folks who raise the issue and politicians see large number of votes.

6/05/2006 11:58:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

May WARN Notices have been posted..

http://www.state.nj.us/labor/warn/warnindex.html

UPS SUPPLY CHAIN 94
DJ ORTHO 196
AICPA 266
FMC 73
AMERISOURCEBERGEN 128
TITAN TOOLS 50
FDR SERVICES 117
UNITED WIRE HANGER 81

6/05/2006 12:06:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

of course nj loses jobs companies
have had enough. NJ is just not
business friendly.

however, we are illegal friendly.

just go to any corner and watch.
it has infected every town in nj.

what do we have abotu 500K illegals here ?

6/05/2006 12:22:00 PM  
Blogger minutesfromNYC said...

Shailesh Gala:

No one forced these "families" to go into bidding wars with other buyers and no one forced these "families" to take out exotic mortgages so they could live in center hall colonials so that other parents could see their Home Depot Chandelier from the curb and say to themselves "wow, that family has really made it in life! They must be loaded!"

Sorry, people brought this upon themselves and now they want the big govt to bail them out. That can only lead to more corruption that NJ is known for



Housing is necessity. If you have growing family, you need house, so families are forced to pay whatever it costs, even if it means sometimes going over board. Renting forever will not solve the issue.

6/05/2006 12:40:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

no one forced these "families" to take out exotic mortgages so they could live in center hall colonials so that other parents could see their Home Depot Chandelier from the curb and say to themselves "wow, that family has really made it in life! They must be loaded!"


That sums up so many things right there.

Also, it's simply false that there is not enough housing available in NJ. There are many homes for sale across the state in the $300K range, they're just far from NY City.

To an extent, we want everything -- price and location. And those are reasonable things to want.

Having both was not so costly just 4-5 years ago, and that's what frustrates so many.

But even buying a $300K house located two hours from NY City today, will mean being underwater for years.

The market is the market, we can all whine and complain (I've done my share here), but if people are patient, they can have a good location for a realistic price.

It's too late for any legislation to accomplish anything (takes years to create, years to implement), and such legislation: a) usually makes things worse, b) probably shouldn't be created in a free market society.

As we see with this Otteau Report, the market is already fixing itself.

6/05/2006 01:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Keep Garden State M.L.S. MLS #: 2271107

OLP: 985K
recent LP: 925K

this morning; 850K

Smell of desperation?

6/05/2006 01:25:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

no doubt about it. the Consumer is under pressure.

Housing Affordability has dropped.

pity those who have purchased at the top. you got to have staying
power.

6/05/2006 01:32:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

From Forbes:

Inventories since last year have jumped 91% in Boston, 236% in Miami and 149% in Los Angeles. Asking prices have been cut on one-third of listings in Boston, San Diego, Sacramento, Los Angeles and Miami.

Nationwide median prices will probably fall at least 20% before the break is over. It will take a 35% fall to return prices to their long-run link to the Consumer Price Index; markets overshoot on the downside as well as the up.


http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2006/0619/168.html?partner=yahoomag

(via TheHousingBubbleblog.com)

6/05/2006 02:01:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

From Forbes:

Inventories since last year have jumped 91% in Boston, 236% in Miami and 149% in Los Angeles. Asking prices have been cut on one-third of listings in Boston, San Diego, Sacramento, Los Angeles and Miami.

Nationwide median prices will probably fall at least 20% before the break is over. It will take a 35% fall to return prices to their long-run link to the Consumer Price Index; markets overshoot on the downside as well as the up.


http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2006/0619/168.html?partner=yahoomag

(via TheHousingBubbleblog.com)

6/05/2006 02:07:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

(Sorry for the double post, Blogger is giving all kinds of errors.)


More from Forbes:

With dreams of huge appreciation dancing in their heads, speculators indeed drove the housing frenzy in the high end. Now that prices are flagging, they are fleeing. These investors and vacation-home buyers accounted for 40% of house sales last year, up from 36% in 2004.

...

This is the first nationwide housing bubble since the 1920s, and it's driven by three nationwide forces: low interest rates, loose lending practices and the desperate search for a stock substitute after the 2000--02 debacle.

...

In 2005's second half 25% of new fixed-rate mortgages were interest-only (meaning the payback of principal is delayed) versus 5% a year earlier.

...

Even a 20% price decline will be devastating for many homeowners. On average, those with mortgages have 37% equity in their abodes. Of those who borrowed or refinanced in 2005, 29% have zero or negative equity...

6/05/2006 02:09:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Metro:

Blog tourettes, now thats funny, I can't stop laughing!

6/05/2006 02:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

WANT TO SEE THE MOST OVERPRICED HOUSE IN CHATHAM:

http://realestate.aol.realtor.com/Prop/1058711015?gate=aolrealestate

MLS ID#: 2270199

aka 15 Williams Street in Chatham, NJ


My wife and I were passing by on Sunday and saw the open house sign. When I asked the realtor the price when i walked in, she said, "let me get you the sheet". I asked what the price was and she again repeated "I really need to get you the sheet". Evidently she know the price of $1.345 million was so laughable she could not utter the words.

Its an old house which the owner did minor cosmetic painting to get it ready for sale. The kitchen and baths (along with the rest of the house) need updating and its on a small lot less than 1/4 acre.

When I asked the realtor why the price was so high, she said "Builders will pay over a million just for this lot". I responded the lot was tiny and she said, oh no, you can put a big house here. when I reminded her of Chatham's footprint ratio to the size of the lot, this clown stated "well, its easy to get a variance in Chatham." She then said, "if you are interested, you should make an offer soon because we have a lot of interest in this house. Chatham is very hot right now" I said, you only had two other people sign ahead of me and its 3:45 (12-4 open house). Her response was, well we had "like 5 other couples come by but they didnt sign in." I responded tersely "I find that hard to believe especially the way you were on me to sign in when I entered." I then turned to leave and said "Good luck selling this house, you'll need it in this market."

There were so many for sale signs in Chatham, my wife and kids lost count. Everywhere you look signs are up.

The comps to this joke of a house at 15 Williams St are all in the $610K to $900 K range so these people are dreamers or smoking dope. Also they are longtime owners who probably bought in the $200K range and are looking to make the big $. What a disgrace.

Dont be afraid to tell these realtors at open houses that their properties are well overpriced. They need to hear that and maybe they will understand the time has come to squeeze the sellers into reality.

Dave C

6/05/2006 02:37:00 PM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

Nice work Dave C. I think that deserves a booya

6/05/2006 02:47:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

From Bloomberg:

Bernanke Says Inflation Is `Unwelcome' Development

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said recent increases in measures of inflation ``are unwelcome'' and he will ensure the trend isn't sustained.

He also told an American Bankers Association conference that the U.S. economy ``is entering a period of transition'' and the ``anticipated moderation of economic growth seems now to be under way.''

Bernanke's remarks identify inflation as the biggest risk for the economy, even though signs of a slowdown are beginning to appear. Bonds and stocks fell as traders increased bets that the central bank will lift its benchmark rate to 5.25 percent when policy makers meet at the end of this month.

The Fed ``will be vigilant to ensure that the recent pattern of elevated monthly core inflation readings is not sustained,'' Bernanke said at the bankers group's International Monetary Conference in Washington. The Fed ``must continue to resist any tendency for increases in energy and commodity prices to become permanently embedded in core inflation.''

6/05/2006 02:51:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

In other words.... rate hike in June.

6/05/2006 02:58:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

so now with the downturn in the market the inventory will really
begin to expand as the monthly
brokerage statement comes.

Martha, time to get out.

call the realtor.

6/05/2006 03:07:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

but shes busy with open houses.

cant come till next week

6/05/2006 03:08:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Sounds like an indication that another rate hike will be on the way.

The $64,000 question (or $419,834.20 question adjusted for inflation) is whether or not Ben is serious enough about inflation to trigger a recession? Housing is clearnly heading down and the markets have been taking a pounding in the last weeks and today is no exceptoin.
Any thoughts?

6/05/2006 03:13:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hovnanian has no plans to buy back shares.

The luxury home builder prefers to use cash for acquisitions as home builders lower forecast for the year.


See How confident KHOV is about their own future.

http://tinyurl.com/mw85b

6/05/2006 03:19:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

It is what the fed does. It puts the turd in the punchbowl to end the party.

6/05/2006 03:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I initially started reading this blog in preparation for finally buying a house with my fiance. I do firmly believe there has been unsustainable housing inflation if not a "bubble" and a correction is coming.

However, after many many many articles and posts, I am now not even sure that NJ will ever be a good deal! I don't believe in positive government as much as shailesh gala but I do believe in bad government - along with the associated higher taxes. The posts on jobs in the state don't give much hope either. I still want to buy a house but... How far away is the PA border again?

DG

6/05/2006 03:27:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

The PA border is close it is just the traffic that will kill you.

6/05/2006 03:30:00 PM  
Anonymous x-underwriter said...

Nice anecdote Metroplexual,
What pisses me off the most is that this guy Greenspan is treated like a hero.
He didn't lift a finger to prevent the stock market crash, and he certainly didn't do anything to prevent this.
I got your "froth" right here Greenspan

6/05/2006 03:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

RE: http://realestate.aol.realtor.com/Prop/1058711015?gate=aolrealestate

MLS ID#: 2270199

aka 15 Williams Street in Chatham, NJ

2344 Square Feet. Purchased in 2002 for $482,000. $1.345MM list price is a joke and an insult.

bts

6/05/2006 03:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sit tight DG,
Waiting a few months won't hurt you and I think a lot of things will unfold by the end of the summer.
The commute from PA is very bad...hour and a half to go 20 miles on Route 80

6/05/2006 03:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Already inventories since last year have jumped 91% in Boston, 236% in Miami and 149% in Los Angeles. Asking prices have been cut on one-third of listings in Boston, San Diego, Sacramento, Los Angeles and Miami. Nationwide median prices will probably fall at least 20% before the break is over. It will take a 35% fall to return prices to their long-run link to the Consumer Price Index; markets overshoot on the downside as well as the up."

Would someone please explain to me what this excerpt from Shiller means -- maybe with a concrete example. (I'm not getting what's being said with respect to: 20%, 35% and "markets overshoot on the downside")

6/05/2006 03:44:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

like chatham, here's another out of touch with reality would be seller looking to score in cranford. MLS #2283730. not a bad colonial with 4BR, 2BA but at $650k with an unfinished basement and the need for an entirely new kitchen, it's laughable. i've talked to some folks in the area and i also know the comps well and this house isn't worth more than $575k for a very motivated buyer.

still amazes me how out of touch sellers can be. i mean do they think someone is going to come along and give them $100k more than a house is worth? stupid stupid stupid. for such houses that are not at least market priced don't even bother inquiring.

6/05/2006 03:44:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

RentinginNJ said...
The $64,000 question (or $419,834.20 question adjusted for inflation) is whether or not Ben is serious enough about inflation to trigger a recession?
Any thoughts?
4:13 PM

Answer? Of course, his job is to have intelligence coupled with cojones. A recession is generally standard procedure.

Just to remind the Greenspa-haters, the Fed Chairman was attempting to avoid spiraling deflation, and prevent the USA from ending up like Japan. In the process the country became RE crazy, but on the whole, he was masterful. As you will see with Bernanke, you will only really be able to judge him in 2015 for the steps he is taking now.

At the end of the day, you must rely on individuals to make the best decisions for themselves. It sounds caustic and callous, but in the end, it is the only objective way to ensure general prosperity. If not, we will be doomed for a depression [as is NJ].

Otherwise, you end up with politicians who end up saying arrogant things suggesting that US citizens can't be trusted to make sensible decision for themselves.

My response is hearty and expletive laced. Too bad I don't have the opportunity to vote her out of the senate regardless of her clear leadership ability and competence.

chicago

6/05/2006 03:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you think NJ is going down, look at the listings info from Loudon County, VA

www.virginiamls.com/charts/Loudoun.htm

500 properties on the market in March/05. Now there's
over 4,000

6/05/2006 03:49:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

From RentinginNJ:

I’ll concede that this Blog is relatively one sided, but if you want balance, just open up any newspaper, talk to any RE agent or turn-on any news channel. You will hear the NAR party line about how great rising RE prices were for everyone and how now we are ever-so-gently gliding toward a temporary soft and cushy landing as the hottest markets pause to “catch their breath” before resuming their reach for the stars.

I’m attracted to this blog precisely because it is the balance to an otherwise one sided story on real estate.


NAR's assessments are toward the overall US market rather than the market in NNJ. Most of the press has been very negative on real estate here of late.

The main problem I have here is the giddiness and attitude of wanting to see others financially destroyed. This blog reminds me somewhat of feudal times where landowners were hated by the peasants.

There's a class war being played out here on this blog between homeowners and those who don't own. The hatred and resentment runs very very deep here. I never thought I'd see this in America. This has truly been an eyeopener.

6/05/2006 04:33:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

500 to 4000 just a pause in the market.

ask any realtor down their.

6/05/2006 04:34:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

come on love these are market forces at work..

cant take it? or in a dream world.

6/05/2006 04:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Liek everything else, many sellers are late to the party and see the numbers that people received in 2004 and 2005.

The often need a does of reality. If you see a house you really like and cant wait, offer 20-30% below the asking price. You may be surprised when the sellers seem very interested in talking negotiation.

Always ask if the person selling is moving and if they have bought a new house. IF SO, expect them to want to wrap things up quickly and thus be much more flexible.

6/05/2006 04:44:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"I never thought I'd see this in America. This has truly been an eyeopener."


As has the last five years of greedy sellers and speculators asking absurd prices for homes.

Did you feel bad for buyers who bought your "investment" properties with exotic loans, and are financially extended beyond reason to put a roof over their head?

And what's all this talk about "America" -- it's nothing new that a fool and his money are soon parted, and it's definitely not an American creation.

It's just business, a financial transaction, don't take it personally.

6/05/2006 04:45:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

The schadenfreude does get out of hand at times. Potential buyers are frustrated, some more than others. Some simply seek an outlet to express that frustration. I personally believe that very few actually wish any kind of harm on another, financial or otherwise.

No one here is calling for the collapse of the American economy, no one here is anti-American.

grim

6/05/2006 04:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bob, don't go away...
My wife & I like reading your comments. I cannot count how many times we've discussed and laughed at them. Keep up the good work.

6/05/2006 04:57:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

The problem with the Bob comments is every once in a while there will be an excellent reply embedded in one of them. I've skipped over them myself only to realize it long after the fact.

grim

6/05/2006 05:03:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

after bernanke's performance today, he said the economy is slowing, is it not time for the
housing market to slow?

or really make housing more afforable,,,, and of course what about the taxes on these joints?

6/05/2006 05:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

leave bob laone:-)

this report says a mouthful...lets see NAR's soft landing now.

6/05/2006 05:12:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim:

The entire "bubble" critical mass I think is anon. Totally unscientific [actually embarassing for me to say that], it just feels as if some a dam is about to burst.

I think the next 90-120 days is going to be the watershed moment. If things do not stabilize, then they never will until we are done.

I am unhappy writing this post, a little bit of a knot in the stomache.

Stay far away from things. This will be the falling knife. As they say, do not try and catch it.


chicago

6/05/2006 05:29:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

can we start taking bets on when these housing companies will start laying off?

hov, tol, kbh,

something has to give.
and what about the homes they have under construction?

They are already throwing in features to try to keep the prices up so they dont screw the folks who have already moved in.

Forty percent of the homes sold
in all of 2004 and 2005 were for second homes or investments.

Houston we have a problem.

6/05/2006 05:34:00 PM  
Anonymous gary said...

Hey REINVESTOR 101,

I'm a homeowner and I'm leading the charge. No, it's not just the renters who think the market is nuts, it's some homeowners, too. Let the market correct 25% to 30%. I'll humbly accept whatever profit I'll make and be thankful. It's true, most (and I mean most) sellers are greedy pigs.

6/05/2006 05:43:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

CF,

We're rapidly approaching the inflection point for the North Jersey real estate market. While some here have made reference to July being the turnover point, I believe it's a bit earlier. From what I've seen, looking at the 4-wk moving average of sales and contracts, the inflection point comes in mid/late June, only a few weeks away. From that point, contracts will begin to decline. The question is, will they do so at an orderly pace.

I've been watching any reports dealing with business spending very closely. If there is going to be a soft landing, business spending has got to start picking up at a rapid pace. When I say soft landing, I'm speaking about the broad economy, not the housing market..

grim

6/05/2006 05:51:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

As has the last five years of greedy sellers and speculators asking absurd prices for homes.

Did you feel bad for buyers who bought your "investment" properties with exotic loans, and are financially extended beyond reason to put a roof over their head?


This is going to be a continuation of the weekend open discussion string. There are no greedy sellers. There were plenty of greedy buyers. If you put up a house for sell and a bunch of people make offers within hours, what's there left to do but take the highest bid?

Who has forced any buyer to get an exotic loan? Who forced anyone to buy at inflated prices? Who coerced them into bidding?

Most investors didn't. Most just sat back and let the herd do their work.

Like I said before, buyers are strictly reponsible for the market conditions where valuations became inflated. They were the one's bidding against each other like there was no tomorrow, fighting over houses and etc. Hell, I even read a story somewhere where some bidder even promised to feed some woman's squirrels to win a bid in California.

No one forced them to do that. The smart money got in early or exited early. For most folks who bought early, there's nothing to worry about because the buyers bid up things well above their entry point.


The herd is a little exhausted right now, but they'll be rushing in again bidding and fighting. There's a ton of pent up demand in NNJ judging by the comments here. That is perhaps the most enlightening aspect of this blog.

6/05/2006 05:53:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

gary said...

I'm a homeowner and I'm leading the charge. No, it's not just the renters who think the market is nuts, it's some homeowners, too. Let the market correct 25% to 30%. I'll humbly accept whatever profit I'll make and be thankful. It's true, most (and I mean most) sellers are greedy pigs.

I disagree with your characterization of sellers. Most have just become accustomed to buyers bidding and crawling all over them to buy their homes. If you've grown accustomed to hearing about multiple bids, then quite naturally one will want to maximize his selling price. The top of the market was characterized by giddy sellers but rather giddy buyers willing to do whatever to buy a home.

Even I'll admit now that things appear to be changing.

I'd caution you about meekly accepting whatever you're offered however. There will be some folks throwing punches with very bad intentions!

6/05/2006 06:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Escape from NJ said...

All this Bob bashing has got me down. He is the lone voice in the wilderness, seeking to be heard. Our big toe leading the foot of righteousness into the butt of ignorance.

6/05/2006 06:04:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

rymingrealtor said...

Excuse my ignorance but what is

NO MAAS?

Thanks


You're apparently not a boxing fan. The term "no maas" is translated from spanish to mean "no more". The term was popularized in the early eighties in a boxing match between Roberto Duran and Sugar Ray Leonard. Leonard spanked Duran so handily that Duran quit between rounds saying he had enough or "no maas"

6/05/2006 06:10:00 PM  
Anonymous gary said...

The party's over. Houses are sitting for months now. They went up in the first place because the realtors, appraisers and lenders had a lust-fest. They skewed it anyway they could to get the buyer in the house. I'll gladly accept whatever the market will bear and if I have to adjust my price, I will. I did it once, I'll do it again.

6/05/2006 06:22:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Who has forced any buyer to get an exotic loan? Who forced anyone to buy at inflated prices? Who coerced them into bidding?"


Never said or implied any such thing.

You commented on the "giddy" atmosphere here at prices returning to normal, so I asked if you were giddy when prices were detached from reality and headed skyward.

So, were you giddy, or did you rake in massive profits with sadness?

6/05/2006 06:23:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Our big toe leading the foot of righteousness into the butt of ignorance."


Indeed, and with a "boooyaaaa" upon entry.

6/05/2006 06:26:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

REINVESTOR101,

As for the supply. Remember those articles about people leavingthe region. I may be one of them, I have been looking int AZ. Their bubble is bursting and they got lots of land to develop. BTW, a 4bdrm house can be rented for between $900 and $1,200. Yes a house with a yard 2 car garage 1800 to 2000 sq ft.

Also my job pays better out there. It's just shoveling the snow that I will miss.....not!

6/05/2006 06:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

REINVESTOR-3210
this one is for you

"implosion"

6/05/2006 07:04:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Tomorrow is 6-6-06 and then there's this:

"Mortgage demand dips as 30-year rate hits 4-year high of 6.66%"

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2006-05-31-mortgages_x.htm

6/05/2006 07:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Reinvestor:

Over the weekend, you called the writings and opinions expressed by some on this blog "unamerican."

I really want you to explain that.

Do you mean it in a "far-left" kind of way? Like me wanting buy a house at a livable price is in some way unamericanly commie?

Or maybe in a "far-right" kind of way?

I'm thinking that if you are out there somewhere thinking these thoughts, then we are not far from newspaper reports blaming bloggers for the impending stagflation.

It will be my fault, and shailesh's fault, and Bob's fault, and grim's fault, and chicago's fault, and mfnyc's and skeptics, etc.

All our fault that seller's can't sell their houses for outrageous prices and all our fault that the Fed's loose printing press over the last few years has fallen through the floor.

Pat

6/05/2006 07:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

unrealtor

666 - Number of the beast!

6/05/2006 07:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I want to buy a home in NJ. I still am hearing that shore home prices are not going to fall. The Otteau Report looks about the same for my area (Pt. Pleasant Beach). Is this area "immune" to falling prices? I stopped looking in hopes the market would come down. You still can only find crappy old houses for 700k.

6/05/2006 07:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I want to buy a home in NJ. I still am hearing that shore home prices are not going to fall. The Otteau Report looks about the same for my area (Pt. Pleasant Beach). Is this area "immune" to falling prices? I stopped looking in hopes the market would come down. You still can only find crappy old houses for 700k.

As someone who has a house in Point Pleasant Boro, I can tell you that house prices have already begun to plummet amongst those who must sell. The NJ shore real estate market is among the most precarious for buyers, as sellers here rarely "have" to sell. They have alot of second homes and thus disposable income. That being said, at some point people must say uncle and make a decision. Wait until October and you will be in a much better position to buy a shore house.

Diane Turton Jr.

6/05/2006 07:46:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

gary said...
The party's over. Houses are sitting for months now. They went up in the first place because the realtors, appraisers and lenders had a lust-fest. They skewed it anyway they could to get the buyer in the house. I'll gladly accept whatever the market will bear and if I have to adjust my price, I will. I did it once, I'll do it again.

I can't believe you're meekly ready to submit to whatever today's buyer will offer you. After reading this blog, you should know there are some people who are salavating like Pavlov's dogs ready to eat your lunch. You better hope you don't run into Bob or Unrealtor. They'll be yelling "booya" as they try to make you pay them at the closing table.

Be very careful of what you wish for and get some backbone to take these guys to the mat. Otherwise, you may get more than you bargained for.

6/05/2006 07:48:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

From Unrealtor

You commented on the "giddy" atmosphere here at prices returning to normal, so I asked if you were giddy when prices were detached from reality and headed skyward.

So, were you giddy, or did you rake in massive profits with sadness?


I'm dispassionate about investing as emotions often cloud clear thinking. So no, I was not giddy at the prospect or at the reality of profits. Most investors operate in this fashion and aren't giddy. At the peak of the market, you would have never heard investors crying out "booya" or saying "let's starve buyers" or "let's make sure we clean them out" and etc. It was a situation where buyers were crawling all over the place to buy your house.

Buyers created this entire scenario and or entirely to blame for pricing themselves out of the market.

6/05/2006 07:57:00 PM  
Anonymous gary said...

Who said I'm giving the house away? I always knew how to make money. 15% return YOY for the last six years. If you really were an investor, you'd know what I'm talking about. Meekly? lol!

6/05/2006 08:00:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

Anonymous said...
REINVESTOR-3210
this one is for you

"implosion"


Reading this guy reminds me of reading someone like that liberal Paul Krugman. Nothing but doom and gloom.

6/05/2006 08:00:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

THANK YOU! :) ..."Wait until October and you will be in a much better position to buy a shore house. - Diane Turton Jr. 8:46 PM "

6/05/2006 08:04:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

gary said...
Who said I'm giving the house away? I always knew how to make money. 15% return YOY for the last six years. If you really were an investor, you'd know what I'm talking about. Meekly? lol!


Like I said, there are some here that want you to take a severe haircut. They going to have a problem with giving you 15% YOY over six years.

Just hope that Bob and unrealtor don't get ahold of you.

6/05/2006 08:05:00 PM  
Anonymous gary said...

I'll be sure to take your advice.

BOOOOYAAAA

6/05/2006 08:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

reinvestor 9:05

Gary was pulling your leg.

You are a good person ... i feel sorry for your financial future.

6/05/2006 08:19:00 PM  
Anonymous gary said...

anon 9:19

No, I'm serious. If not 15%, then 13%, 12%? What's the difference? I'm still investing every week and living within my means. Whatever the price will bring is what it'll be. I'm not going to "demand" a certain price like most sellers would do. Why do most not understand this?

6/05/2006 08:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great blog! Longtime reader, first time posting. Been watching the ludicrous run up in prices and definitely feel the tide has turned - though it will likely be a long, slow grind to the bottom.

This listing in Summit, NJ, caught my eye recently. Was amazed at the amount of the STARTING discount from "list" price (almost 43%!). Didn't pay it much heed until I actually drove by yesterday. It's at the bottom of Summit Road (where it intersects Route 24). Literally overlooks the highway. There used to be a modest, non-descript house there, then this builder (whom I think is trying to sell the house himself - there's a HUGE sign on the lawn) did a teardown / McMansion thing.

Anybody know anything about this disaster? It will be interesting to see what it goes for...

Here's the actual Star Ledger listing:

Summit
SUMMIT BY OWNER New const. 5 BR, 4.5 ba, $1.75MM custom Col. $999,500 OR BEST REASONABLE OFFER Inspection Sat. 6/24 & Sun 6/25; 1-4pm. Home will be sold Sun. night 6/25 to HIGHEST REASONABLE OFFER 732-706-7653

6/05/2006 08:27:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

Over the weekend, you called the writings and opinions expressed by some on this blog "unamerican."

I really want you to explain that.

Do you mean it in a "far-left" kind of way? Like me wanting buy a house at a livable price is in some way unamericanly commie?

Or maybe in a "far-right" kind of way?

I'm thinking that if you are out there somewhere thinking these thoughts, then we are not far from newspaper reports blaming bloggers for the impending stagflation.

It will be my fault, and shailesh's fault, and Bob's fault, and grim's fault, and chicago's fault, and mfnyc's and skeptics, etc.

All our fault that seller's can't sell their houses for outrageous prices and all our fault that the Fed's loose printing press over the last few years has fallen through the floor.

Pat


Excuse me, but I don't recollect saying that any particular poster was unamerican this past weekend. Certainly, in the distant past, I've felt that certain comments,suggestions and suggested activities were extremely unhelpful and not in consonance with established ideals normally accepted in our great nation.

Here of late, I've refrained from making comments about individual poster's patriotism for a variety of reasons (i.e. derisive comments, parodies and etc)

6/05/2006 08:28:00 PM  
Anonymous dl said...

Sellers and buyers are not mutually exclusive clubs - people are both at different times, so enough already.

6/05/2006 09:28:00 PM  
Blogger annamelbourne said...

Reinvestor said: "Certainly, in the distant past, I've felt that certain comments,suggestions and suggested activities were extremely unhelpful and not in consonance with established ideals normally accepted in our great nation."

If having an opinion other than the majority opinion in our "great nation" is un-American, then I am un-American. I'll risk it. Free speech is an "established ideal" in America.

6/05/2006 09:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

reinvestor said:
Sunday,June 4
6:51 PM
"...Of course, another topic would revolve around whether all this market disruption is what true americans ought be doing. Rather than digress from my central point, I'll save my comments on that for later."

O.K. so what should true Americans be doing?

Why is this discussion not the right thing to be doing, in your mind?

It's O.K. to discuss this. Really.

What is going to happen that is so bad, do you think, if we are putting in writing what we really believe is happening?

Shhhhh, hush..quiet, don't say it outloud? Do you think that BB doesn't know what we are thinking? Do you think that no one else is thinking and saying these things? Like it is all some big conspiracy?

Our economic policy has not been perfect.

We know that. Let's deal with it.

Real corrective policy. If the peons don't use the Internet for all it's worth, knowing that the trading of information will benefit everyone, then we are indeed the wasteful, useless fluff that many in other countries think we are.

Pat

6/05/2006 10:13:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon @ 9:27 Summit house

The house was list last July/August for 2M. It has reduced multiple times to 1.5M. It was taken off the listing around March/April.

I agree that it is a McMansion right on the highway. They actually put in showroom furniture sometime in winter for showing. They also did a lot of landscraping this Spring.

Judging from the previous listing pictures, it is probably worth around 850k - 900k @ today's relative insane price.

6/05/2006 10:48:00 PM  
Blogger new 200 Mbps BROADBAND over POWER LINES said...

DOVER TOWNSHIP, TOMS RIVER , NEW JERSEY 08753

Dover's revaluation deadline extended


TOMS RIVER - Dover Township has been given more time to complete a revaluation of all properties in town, a process that must now be finished by Oct. 1, 2006. "It doesn't have to be done until next year," Mayor Paul C. Brush said Monday..

6/06/2006 01:30:00 AM  
Blogger new 200 Mbps BROADBAND over POWER LINES said...

FYI: High-end condos' low opening bids signal glut

Jun. 4, 2006 12:00 AM


High-end condos' low opening bids signal glut

Jun. 4, 2006 12:00 AM

Here's a sure sign that too many high-end condominiums are going up in metropolitan Phoenix: Units at two pricey new developments are being auctioned off, and the minimum bids are half of what the homes originally cost.

Four condos in the Optima Biltmore Tower on Phoenix's posh corner of 24th Street and Camelback Road are going on the block this month. The high-rise homes cost $949,000 last year. The opening bid for one of the condos now is $475,000.

In Tempe, three condos at the Vale development at 1111 W. University Blvd. will go to the highest bidder this month as well. The units originally cost $429,000 to $699,000. The "suggested opening bid" starts at $240,000.


A growing number of real estate market watchers say there are just too many pricey condos being built or were recently built and not enough buyers.

Almost 8,000 condos and lofts are planned or under construction across the Valley now, more than what went up in the Valley in all of the past 10 years.

Condo developer Reid Butler estimates that less than 20 percent of all the planned high-rise residential projects will be built.

Sheldon Good & Co. is auctioning the Camelback Road and Tempe condos on June 25 at the Arizona Biltmore Resort and Spa.


Tempe snares another


Downtown Phoenix has lost another big company to Tempe.

Accounting firm KPMG LLP has signed a deal to move its offices and 200 employees from the One Arizona Center building to a new office tower at Hayden Ferry Lakeside, next to Tempe Town Lake.

SunCor is developing Hayden Ferry Lakeside. The developer moved its headquarters from central Phoenix to the Tempe project a few years ago. Smith Barney and McCarthy Building Cos. moved offices from Phoenix into the first tower of Hayden Ferry a few years ago as well.

KPMG will anchor the second 12-story office tower in the development. It's leasing 31,000 square feet. The accounting firm will get its logo on the building that's visible to the more than 220,000 commuters traveling Loop 202 freeway in front of the tower every day.


'Barron's,' Take 2


Phoenix's slowing real estate market has caught the attention of Barron's. Again.

An infamous cover article from the national business magazine in December 1988 was titled "Phoenix Descending - Is Boomtown U.S.A. Going Bust?" The story chronicled the slowdown in the Valley's real estate market and the effect on the economy.

Last week, Phoenix was mentioned in a Barron's article on hurting second-home markets across the country.

Once again, flippers are faulted for driving up the Valley's housing costs. Research from the story says home prices in Tucson, Prescott and Phoenix in Arizona are more than 50 percent overvalued based on income levels.

6/06/2006 02:18:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

And the rental market in PHX shows how overvalued the stuff is.

6/06/2006 05:40:00 AM  
Blogger DebtVulture said...

Anon 9:27AM

That Summit house reminds me of this house in Morristown - MLS#2248523, except the one in Morristown isn't as nice. Some builder tore down a homely house and put up new construction. Problem is that it is right on a VERY busy road and is acutally right next to a business. No backyard to speak of also. Builder originally listed it at $889K and I don't see it being worth anything above $600K.

The Summit house you refer to is a very nice looking house on the outside, just horrible location.

6/06/2006 07:21:00 AM  
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6/20/2006 09:18:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You can do a lot to For example, curb appeal sells: do some landscaping. Plant some flowers. Remember that the front door greets buyers. Make sure it offers potential a bright, warm welcome.

6/22/2006 04:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

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6/22/2006 05:44:00 PM  
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6/23/2006 05:21:00 PM  
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. Silence Is Golden: Be courteous but don't force conversation with a potential buyer. He wants to inspect your house, not pay a social visit.
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6/25/2006 08:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Potential buyers have to say "yes" many times to purchase your home ... but a single "no" over a seemingly minor item can kill the deal. You can do something about this.

6/26/2006 02:41:00 PM  
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6/27/2006 10:20:00 AM  
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6/29/2006 02:58:00 PM  
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7/06/2006 12:16:00 AM  
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