Tuesday, June 13, 2006

State of Housing 2006

For your reading pleasure, from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University:

The State of the Nation's Housing 2006

The housing boom came under increasing pressure in 2005. With interest rates rising,
builders in many states responded to slower sales and larger inventories by scaling back on production. Meanwhile, the surge in energy costs hit household budgets just as higher interest rates started to crimp the spending of homeowners with adjustable mortgages.

Nevertheless, the housing sector continues to benefit from solid job and household growth, recovering rental markets, and strong home price appreciation. As long as these positive forces remain in place, the current slowdown should be moderate.


Keep in mind these are major assumptions on which to base predictions. To me, this looks like a typical CYA position. Should job and household growth slow, rental markets stay flat, and price appreciation falter, the slowdown will be anything but moderate..

Some other assumptions that the JCHS makes when giving these predictions are strong in-migration, no major loss of employment, and little overbuilding.

Lastly, consider the source. The study is sponsored by some major players in the real estate industry. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the National Association of Realtors, the National Association of Homebuilders, etc.

Unfortunately, I'm on my way to the airport, I'll be out of the country for the next few days. I wish I could have posted something a bit more in-depth on this, but it's 5:20 and the car will be here shortly.

Caveat Emptor!
grim

185 Comments:

Blogger grim said...

Please take the time to discuss this piece, I believe it would be a worthwhile exercise.

I'll be checking in from time to time next week, as access permits.

jb

6/13/2006 04:41:00 AM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

How to Profit From a Cooling Real Estate Market by Robert Kiyosaki

6/13/2006 04:46:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't think its bad enough to leave the country! Things are looking better everyday. Maybe by the time you return we'll have hit the 40K listings and the declining market values will finally wise up some of the people selling.

Bill

6/13/2006 04:47:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

haven't read it yet, but I disagree with some of its main points defending the "soft landing" scenario

1 basically they point to how most houses are financed which is [purposely?] specious - especially considering the data they use is national

2 they use the [tired] old growing population / immigration argument, which is also not relevant since there is a disconnect between housing stock and housing location and the socio-economic background of the theoretical buyers

surprising because Retsinas is on the ball - if you see the NAR referring to it, that's all you need to know

6/13/2006 06:47:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

BTW - grim - nice catch on the sponsors - sick!

6/13/2006 06:50:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Bernanke Tells Bankers Risk Management, Capital Are `Critical'
June 13 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told bankers that it's ``critical'' to manage risks well and maintain sufficient capital for the good of the financial system and their institutions.

``Both robust risk management and strong capital positions are critical to ensure that individual banking organizations operate in a safe and sound manner that enhances the stability of the financial system,'' Bernanke said yesterday in Washington to executives at a graduate school run by the American Bankers Association.

The comments are consistent with positions taken by his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, and Fed Governor Susan Bies, who is the board's chief member for regulatory issues. Bernanke also said use of financial instruments and activities such as loan trading and credit derivatives can help banks ``be more active in their management of credit risks and other portfolio risks.''

In terms of capital reserves, ``strong capital helps banks absorb unexpected shocks and reduces the moral hazard associated with the federal safety net,'' Bernanke said in the speech. The Fed and other U.S. bank regulators are trying to implement the international Basel II agreement to adjust capital standards.

Bernanke, 52, didn't comment on the outlook for the U.S. economy or interest rates in his speech or the question-and- answer session that followed.

China Currency

In response to a question, Bernanke said China ``would be well served by moving towards a more flexible, market-determined exchange-rate system.''

The yuan has appreciated by only about 1 percent since the country's central bank revalued the currency last July. At that time, China severed a decade-long peg to the dollar and began managing the yuan against a basket of currencies. The comments were similar to others Bernanke has made since becoming Fed chairman Feb. 1 and echo the positions of the White House and the Group of Seven industrialized countries.

``It's in China's interest along with everyone else's, to create greater balance in the world international economy,'' Bernanke said, citing the U.S. current-account deficit and other ``external imbalances'' around the world.

In response to other questions submitted by audience members, Bernanke repeated the Fed's concerns about so-called industrial loan corporations, or banks that are owned by commercial concerns. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, is trying to obtain a state banking charter in Utah as an ILC and recently filed an application for deposit insurance with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

``There are some issues related to the way the ILC structure is set up,'' Bernanke said.

Mortgages

Bernanke also said that the Fed may issue, ``not too far in the distant future,'' a final version of bank guidance over use of some types of variable-rate home mortgages. In December, the Fed and other government agencies said interest-only and other nontraditional mortgages pose a threat to the financial system and urged the nation's banks to tighten lending standards.

In a separate speech last month, Bernanke said the Basel II rules for the U.S. banking system are still a ``work in progress'' that require input from financial institutions and regulators to make it efficient and practical. He repeated that comment yesterday.

6/13/2006 06:57:00 AM  
Blogger sachin said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

6/13/2006 07:32:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are the sellers who make reductions the only ones getting their homes sold? How long will it take for this to affect appraisals? When will mortgage companies have to use all the reduced-priced comparables? In the last market downturn, did buyers start to have trouble getting a mortgage because their new homes would not appraise at the purchase price?

6/13/2006 07:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Another quote, with a different slant, from the new Harvard study that Grim cited:

"New household projections incorporating higher but more realistic immigrant assumptions suggest household growth will accelerate to 14.6 million over the next ten years from 12.6 million over the last ten. “Strong household growth, combined with record incomes and wealth, will lift housing investments to new highs next decade,” remarks Eric Belsky, executive director of the Joint Center."

Seems to me that this flies in the face of the Grim's contention that we're in for a serious crash.

Yes, I see that the Harvard Center for Housing Studies gets funding from some of the big players in real estate, but I've never seen anyone impugn their integrity and claim that their studies are biased before...so why now?

6/13/2006 08:36:00 AM  
Blogger X-Underwriter said...

Anonymous,
Here's how appraisals work. The appraiser finds three properties that are close and similar to the subject that sold within the last six months. He then uses those sales to estimate the value of the subject proeperty.
Going forward, I don't think lenders will accept any comps over six months old due to what's going on. Right now, there are still plenty of comps that sold in the last six months at a high prices so we can stil lexpect high appraisal values. Six months from now, however, I think it will be increasingly difficult for appraisers to find good comps that support the higher values. Their appraisal values will then have to come in lower

6/13/2006 08:38:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Google Robert Kiyosaki and Amway:

http://google.com/search?q=Robert+Kiyosaki+Amway

6/13/2006 08:53:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Enjoy the trip Grim!

6/13/2006 08:53:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Strong household growth, combined with record incomes and wealth, will lift housing investments to new highs next decade"


Northern NJ inventory at 16 months:


Currently, there are 30,764 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site. For Residential Properties that are Multiple Listed with Garden State, 99% are available to be searched on this site.

http://www.gsmls.com



The NAR wouldn't lie, jump in now "investors"! Real estate is heading for "new highs" even though houses are already at 10X median income.

A tiny cape on 1/8th of an acre costs $700K? No problem, "new highs" are on the way!

6/13/2006 09:01:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I simply think it's important, at least occasionally, to step away from the world of bubble blogs, where you all agree with each other and "booyaa" yourselves into a stupor, and be open to considering other ideas. Don't become so very entrenched and invested in your worldview that you're unable to react and respond to changes in the landscape.

If you're utterly inflexible in your thinking, you could end up as bad off as those folks who believe in the gospel of ever-increasing house prices.

6/13/2006 09:14:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

RE: "flexible thinking"

The irrational exuberance was based on a detachment from both reality and facts.

The numbers don't lie -- these crazy home prices are simply unsustainable, as they're too far out of line with incomes. No amount of "flexible thinking" can change that reality.

6/13/2006 09:20:00 AM  
Blogger William said...

The academicians can study this to death, but in the real world, the sellers that are in trouble (loss of job, interest rate resets/exotics/ARMs, divorce, relo, etc.) will drive this market. They will drive the price down along with the comps.

Those markets that have a higher proportion of these type of sellers will see larger price drops.

6/13/2006 09:22:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Seems to me that this flies in the face of the Grim's contention that we're in for a serious crash.

First, Grim’s focus is on Northern NJ, this study looks at the U.S. as a whole. I think that on a national basis we probably won’t see a “serious crash”, but probably something closer to a “correction”, as some markets are hit harder than others. Northern NJ is one of those markets where prices are seriously misaligned with the fundamentals and a serious crash is a real possibility.

Lets assume for a moment that their sources of funding had no bearing on their conclusions. It’s just another study. It’s not gospel. Their analysis isn’t any more or less valid than any other study. For example, they cite smaller household size resulting from divorce and children moving out as a driver for higher housing demand. Other studies (Princeton) have shown household size stabilizing over the past decade. While divorce might be higher, more young people are retuning home after college to live with parents. More seniors are moving in with their children.

6/13/2006 09:46:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I prefer to stand on the sidelines, watching carefully.... and not become so completely wedded to my position that prices will come down 30, 40, or 50% that I ignore what is actually happening.

I just think you should step away for a moment, and see how utterly rigid your thinking is....you're as bad as the folks who think the sky's the limit on housing prices.

I'm a contrarian at heart, and have never followed the herd. The fact that so many people are now issuing urgent bubble warnings makes me just a little uneasy.

6/13/2006 09:55:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

What could easily be described as one of the nicest houses in Short Hills just went on the market:

MLS 2288625
32 Windermere Terrace, 07078
$1,895,000
5 BR, 4 BA
Tudor built in 1929
1.3 acres
1/4 acre pond on property

http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1061516657


Was surprised to see the price, which is about half what I expected, and considering morons are buying 3BR 1960s ranches on 1/3 acre for $1.3M.

Should be interesting to see how the market reacts to this one.

6/13/2006 09:55:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

an Ad ARTICLE AT
Asbury Park Press
Sunday May 28, 2006
p.G3 !!!

"Kara Homes advises active adults to purchase homes now" !!!

Why buy homes when you knew that New Jersey home prices is way overpriced according to the latest report and Housing prices is now cooling if not CRASHING !!!!

6/13/2006 09:56:00 AM  
Blogger X-Underwriter said...

With regards to the Harvard report
They are a mouthpiece for the Real Estate industrial complex.

Check out their policy advisory board members.

http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/people/pabmemberlist.html

It's a who's who of the real estate industry

6/13/2006 09:57:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I'm a contrarian at heart, and have never followed the herd. The fact that so many people are now issuing urgent bubble warnings makes me just a little uneasy."

Sounds like you've been reading this blog for quite a while, so you know that many people have been issuing bubble warnings for years. Many respected financial journals. Just click on some links to find them, or let me know if you need the links for any of them back to 2002.

It's not a new warning. Why would it make you uneasy NOW?

Maybe you know that flippers lost heart right about March. The flipper herd turned.

What changed? A lot of them took a good look at their heating bills last winter, vs. the rents they were getting. A lot of them saw other flippers' houses sitting on the market for 6 months to a year.

So they started dumping. DUMPING.

Black Thursday. But it just happened a little slower. And a lot of potential bagholders were a little more educated than in 2003-2004, so there weren't so many dummies around to clean up the flipping mess.

Pat

6/13/2006 10:07:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So they started dumping. DUMPING.
Thats awesome, about darn time we saw a friggin correction. I need a home too you know....
-- BM (Not Bob)

6/13/2006 10:22:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Anon 6/13/2006 10:55:02 AM:

While ultimately what you are saying makes complete sense, it needs to be place into context.

The problem with residential real estate is that no matter how massive in scale the overall market is, the underpinnings of the market will always be a cottage industry. Transaction data will always be the compilation of volumes of small individuals making the largest, most intimidating, risky and complex purchase in their lives.

The sales themselves are completely idiosyncratic. The data asymmetry is massive, and further exacerbated by the real estate community which benefits tremendously by obfuscation and obstruction of current "live" information.

With this backdrop, the herd has always driven the market strongly in its strong plodding way. If we were trading stocks, I would appreciate you point more, but being a Real Estate Bear is a process of attrition, and ultimately we will all want to wade in. Our lives are going to dictate more about our eventual decision that a myopic compulsion expressed on an Internet Board.

chicago

6/13/2006 10:26:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

I'm a contrarian at heart, and have never followed the herd. The fact that so many people are now issuing urgent bubble warnings makes me just a little uneasy.

That’s because you are, in fact, tuned into what is happening, even if you are not actively watching the market. The average Joe with his head in the sand might have heard about this “bubble thing”, but is ultimately comforted by the “fact” that real estate never goes down, it just “returns to normal” or “takes a break”.

Don’t forget, most of the “bubble warnings” are from academic, financial or more intellectually oriented sources (Harpers, The Economist ect.). The average Joe who watches the Channel 2 11 o’clock news and reads the Star Ledger never really sees this stuff. They only see or hear the reassuring story that everything is okay and that their area is somehow special and exempt from the bubble.

6/13/2006 10:35:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Just performed a healthy skim of the document. On the face it is intended to be balanced, but it has certain dubious spins on information that make me question its objectivity:

1 homes consume less energy PER SQUARE FOOT in 1995 versus 2005[intended to build some case that energy prices are less of an issue that they would otherwise be]

2 new records for income and wealth in inflation adjusted terms [however they are comparing 1995 to 2005, when we were still stuggling to move out of the early 1990's recession and 2005 included all the value of appreciated real estate]

3 analysis of rental market - conclusions? echo boomers are going to be entering their 20's and early 30's, so rents will be going up [don't rent, BUY!], [buy property for investing]

4 home equity gain are the best protection against foreclosure because homeowners can sell at a profit [what???!!!] - How about NOT borrowing beyond your means is the best protection against foreclosure!

THE CLINCHER!
5 affordability problems are most acute in housing markets with strict land use regulations

6/13/2006 11:03:00 AM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

Fed's Olson says mortgage data raise questions

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -
Federal Reserve Governor Mark Olson said on Tuesday data collected under the U.S. Home Mortgage Disclosure Act raise troubling questions about lending to black and Hispanic borrowers and more research is needed.
ADVERTISEMENT

"Black and Hispanic borrowers are more likely to obtain mortgage loans from institutions that tend to specialize in subprime lending," Olson said in testimony prepared for delivery to the House of Representatives Subcommittee on Financial Institutions.

In remarks that steered clear of the broad economy and monetary policy, Olson said while this may in part reflect such factors as borrower preference or credit scores not included in the HMDA data, there may be "more troubling causes."

"Segmentation may stem from borrowers being steered to lenders that charge higher prices than what is warranted by the credit characteristics of these borrowers," Olson said.

"Borrowers may also have different levels of financial literacy, or their knowledge of the mortgage lending process may be uneven -- for example, they may not understand the importance of shopping and negotiating for the best loan terms," he added, saying more research is needed on these subjects.

"The board will continue to conduct and promote research that explores the racial and ethnic differences in the incidence of higher-priced lending," Olson said.

He said the Fed will conduct hearings in June and July on the home equity lending market.

6/13/2006 11:32:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

doh!

From Ben Jones Blog.....

Here’s the list of who funded this “report”

Andersen Windows
Armstrong Holdings, Inc.
Beazer Homes USA
Black & Decker
Boral Industries
The Bozzuto Group
Bradco Supply Corporation
Builders FirstSource
Building Materials Holding Corporation
Canfor Corporation
Cendant Corporation
Centex Corporation
CertainTeed Corporation
Champion Enterprises
Countrywide Financial Corporation
Crosswinds Communities
Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae Foundation
Federal Home Loan Bank of Boston
Fortune Brands - Home and Hardware
Freddie Mac
GAF Materials Corporation
Georgia-Pacific Corporation
Hanley Wood, LLC
Hearthstone
Home Depot
HomeStore, Inc
Hovnanian Enterprises
Huttig Building Products
James Hardie Industries NV
Jeld-Wen
Johns Manville Corporation
KB Home
Kimball Hill Homes
Kohler Company
Lafarge North America
Lanoga Corporation
Lennar Corporation
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
Marvin Windows and Doors
Masco Corporation
Masonite International Corporation
McGraw-Hill Construction
MI Windows and Doors, Inc.
National Gypsum Company
Oldcastle Building Products, Inc.
Owens Corning
Pacific Coast Building Products
Pella Corporation
Pulte Homes
Reed Business Information
Rinker Materials
The Ryland Group
S&B Industrial Materials S.A.
The Sherwin-Williams Company
Stock Building Supply
The Strober Organization
Temple-Inland
UBS Investment Bank
WeyerhaeuserWhirlpool Corporation

6/13/2006 11:33:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bah hah ha ha ha ha!

Now I get it. Sometimes I'm a little slow on the uptake on these kinds of jokes.

Thanks for the splainin.

Pat

6/13/2006 11:37:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

With a list like that, it's fairly clear to see how this report is based on "flexible thinking" alright.

"New highs" in real estate are on the way!

This whole thing doesn't reflect well on Harvard...

6/13/2006 11:42:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

CF

A who's who in real estate.

6/13/2006 11:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who do you think they had to pay off to get Harvard to rubber stamp that analysis and assumptions?

Maybe build them a new set of Freshman dorms?

New hardwood floors for all the Deans?

Pat

6/13/2006 11:49:00 AM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...


'Overpriced' housing gets more overpriced Despite a slowdown, more housing markets are overvalued than ever, says one economist.


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - The rich have gotten richer, at least when it comes to home prices, according to a study released Monday.

The most overvalued housing markets in the United States recorded much higher price increases during the first quarter of 2006 than the least overvalued markets, according to the latest analysis by National City Corp, a financial holding company, and Global Insight, a financial information provider.
Worst prices
Where the home prices are least affordable

Metro area Percent overvalued Q4 2005 Median home price Q1 2006 Percent overvalued Q1 2006
Naples, FL 93.5% $383,000 102.6%
Salinas, CA 81.4% $608,600 79.1%
Port St. Lucie, FL 72.8% $240,800 77.4%
Merced CA 72.9% $291,300 77.0%
Bend, OR 65.2% $276,100 76.4%

Source: National City Corp
Best buys
The markets where houses are least overpriced

Metro area Percent undervalued Q4 2005 Median price Q1 2006 Percent undervalued Q1 2006
College Station, TX 22.1% $94,200 23.7%
Dallas, TX 18.8% $129,000 18.9%
Ft. Worth, TX 17.6% $105,500 18.5%
Houston , TX 16.6% $110,600 15.8%
Killeen, TX 11.7% $93,000 15.1%

Source: National City Corp

In the 50 most overvalued markets, prices increased 2.5 percent from the fourth quarter to the first, an annualized rate of 10.1 percent. In the 50 least overvalued markets, prices increased just 0.7 percent, an annualized rate of 2.7 percent.

Overall, U.S. home prices rose at an annualized rate of 7.3 percent for the quarter.

The report surveyed the largest 317 U.S. real estate markets. It determined what home prices should be, controlling for differences in population density, relative income levels, interest rates, and historically observed market premiums or discounts.

Markets with valuation premiums above 34 percent were judged to be severely overpriced and at risk for price corrections.

Take Naples, Florida, the most overvalued U.S. market by National City's estimate. By the last quarter of 2005, the median price for a home, at $367,200, was about 94 percent over what National City judged it should be.

But by the end of the first quarter, the median home price in Naples was $383,000, an increase of more than four percent in just three months. Naples real estate now sells for more than double what it should cost.

Compare that to the least overvalued market, College Station, Texas, where prices are more than 23 percent below what National City estimates they should be. Despite that, prices still fell last quarter, from $95,000 to $94,200. Ft. Worth and Killeen, Texas, and Wichita, Kansas, are other very undervalued markets where prices declined.

Port St Lucie, Florida, Merced, California, and Bend, Oregon, joined Naples as overpriced cities where prices rose substantially.

Some places, of course, bucked this national trend. Salinas, Santa Barbara and Sacramento, all in California, are all among the top 50 overvalued cities where prices dropped.

And El Paso, Houston and New Orleans, all among the least overvalued cities, reported substantial price appreciation. El Paso prices sprouted at a rate of nearly 25 percent on an annual basis.

According to Richard DeKaser, National City's chief economist, what usually happens when markets are returning to normal is that extremes of the market - the low and high ends, should move back toward the average; overvalued markets should rise slowly, if at all, and undervalued ones should shoot up.

Just the opposite is happening.

Overall, 39 percent of the 317 markets surveyed were judged to be severely overvalued. That's up from 36 percent of markets in the last quarter of 2005.

DeKaser did find some evidence that prices may be ripe for a correction. A year ago prices in overvalued markets were going up even quicker than they are today, indicating they are pointing to a change of direction. That doesn't mean that a normal, balanced market is right at hand.

"We've got a long way to go before we're out of this market," says DeKaser.

6/13/2006 11:49:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

to RYMINGREALTOR:

Your name came up on the NJShoreBubble Blog, as a realtor with a solid reputation:

http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=11981241&postID=114807609545597530

you may try posting over at http://nnjbubble.blogspot.com/

There is a realtor, rymingrealtor, who posts there regularly who seems legit and not out to take every penny you have.

Even if you are interested in a territory she doesn't cover, she may be able to refer someone...)


I'm starting to look for places in Monmouth and Ocean, and would like to get your contact info. You can reach me at:

ninefoothoagies(at)hotmail(dotcom)

Thanks in advance,

James

6/13/2006 11:55:00 AM  
Blogger X-Underwriter said...

Keep in mind also that this report is based on established data, which is essentially driving through the rear view mirror. The slowdown is really only hitting meaningful levels for a month now.
Go to 100 open houses and ask the realtor how the market's doing. That's the only way you'll find out what's going on today.
We won't see the actual statistics support what we're writing about here for another few months

6/13/2006 11:58:00 AM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Who do you think they had to pay off to get Harvard to rubber stamp that analysis and assumptions?

The fine print:
“The opinions expressed in The State of the Nation’s Housing: 2006 do not necessarily represent the views of Harvard University, the Policy Advisory Board of the Joint Center for Housing Studies, the Ford Foundation, or the other sponsoring agencies.”

6/13/2006 12:04:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

x-underwriter wrote:

"We won't see the actual statistics support what we're writing about here for another few months."


I don't know about that, check out Grim's post from yesterday:

http://nnjbubble.blogspot.com/2006/06/northern-new-jersey-may-residential.html
(triple-click to select long links)


January - Down 15.3% YOY

February - Down 11.6% YOY

March - Down 9.9% YOY

April - Down 23.8% YOY (the "spring bounce"!)

May - Down 15.7% YOY

6/13/2006 12:07:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"“The opinions expressed in The State of the Nation’s Housing: 2006 do not necessarily represent the views of Harvard University, the Policy Advisory Board of the Joint Center for Housing Studies, the Ford Foundation, or the other sponsoring agencies."


That's a joke.

If the opinions expressed in the report don't reflect the opinions of the report authors, or the university from which they operate, whose opinions DO they represent?

6/13/2006 12:09:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

I’m very curious to know what Yale’s Robert Schiller thinks of Harvard’s Nicolas Retsinas and others report.

6/13/2006 12:14:00 PM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

Older but nice article,

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2005/1118.html

6/13/2006 12:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ah..the good old days when I got my MBA and we had to support our documents with facts...

Ah..sitting with Mikey the Mainframe and running multiple regressions all night long until I was sure my analysis was not bogus.

Nobody cares about such things anymore, and it makes me sad.

Sniff, Sniff.

Pat

6/13/2006 12:18:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting article out of FT.com
from some dude in Harvard.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/15c1eb92-fa79-11da-b7ff-0000779e2340.html

Think that link should work. It was also on page 4 of todays FT newspaper (financial times).

I think this guy who wrote this article is in neverland.

Ironically, this article was on p4, but next to it on p5 was a full one page ad from FreddieMac claiming that a home is the best nest egg and trying to seduce people to buy homes. The ad contains like a cartoon of an egg with a roof over it. FreddieMac should replace that with a guy taking a shotgun to his head because he is now upside down in a home that he will in no way shape or form ever pay off and the house is worth less than he bought it for.

Thats an interesting point now isn't it........

Will the suicide rate go up as the rate of home prices go down?

6/13/2006 12:28:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I apologize if you guys already talked about this article. I got consfued with all the different threads....

6/13/2006 12:29:00 PM  
Blogger X-Underwriter said...

UnRealtor
Maybe it's already posted here somewhere, but I think the number we're looking for is a average sales prices to go down. What that is is a decrease in units, not $$$$
That's coming down the pipe for sure, but not yet

6/13/2006 12:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Average listing price is down 10% YOY in that Corzen report,
but I didn't buy the entire report, so I only see Somerset.

http://www.corzen.com/press/20060612b.pdf

Pat

6/13/2006 12:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

>>Who do you think they had to pay off to get Harvard to rubber stamp that analysis and assumptions?>>

I gotta love you guys. Something comes out that you disagree with, and suddenly everyone at Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies is on the take. Conspiracy theories next?

Why not analyze the report, lose the know-it-all attitude, and see the report for what it is--another policy wonk's point of view.

No--instead you worship without question those who agree with you...which is dangerous in the extreme.

You're turning your bubble bandwagon, which made valid points to begin with, into an unthinking runaway train.

This blog is now The Gospel According to Grim and His Disciples-- and no thinking man need apply.

6/13/2006 12:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

excerpt from roberto kiyosaki

Link On Yahoo

How to Profit From a Cooling Real Estate Market
All over the U.S. there are stories of a rise in real estate foreclosures. Many people who took those exotic mortgages -- borrowing 125% of home value or choosing adjustable-rate mortgages -- are struggling to make their payments, and some aren't making it.

Also, a glut of new property supply, especially condominiums, is coming on line. A friend of mine, a very seasoned real estate investor, says in San Diego County, once one of the hottest real estate markets in the country, thousands of new condominiums are getting ready to come to market -- just as the market softens. He estimates that over 12,000 new units are coming on line, and the market, at the best of times, can only absorb about 1,000 condominiums a year. If he's correct, that means 12 years of supply will be ready for market in the next year.

As interest rates rise and the number of eager new buyers begins to diminish, adding supply to an already bad real estate market for sellers may mean a very good market for buyers and for property investors.

Read more on Yahoo link above
-- BM (not bob)

6/13/2006 12:43:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

The first page addresses the IO and ARM loans and describes how they were used to stretch to get into their homes. they go on to say how price reduction risk is minimal because of no layoffs and the economy being sound and a lack of overbuilding.

I would agree with the last statement under past circumstances but they talk about how IOs are years away from resetting. My understanding is that these loans typically reset in 2-3 years. BTW they mention that IO's represent 20% of the dollar value of all loans outstanding. If that is not pure pollyanna crap.

6/13/2006 12:53:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...


MLS 2288625
32 Windermere Terrace, 07078
$1,895,000
5 BR, 4 BA
Tudor built in 1929
1.3 acres
1/4 acre pond on property


Looks nice enough, and for Short hills, thats a good price. Watch out for the right of way Easement though

6/13/2006 12:57:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Kiyosaki is a quack.

6/13/2006 01:01:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"This blog is now The Gospel According to Grim and His Disciples-- and no thinking man need apply."


As if anyone cares what the NAR, et al, promote (except for the sake of amusement).

First rule of analysis: consider the source. Everything else comes afterwards, and if the source stinks, proceeding past Step 1 is a fool's errand.

6/13/2006 01:06:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Watch out for the right of way Easement though"


Yes, didn't see that bit. Though at 5 bedrooms, not much need to expand!

The property is really breathtaking to see. It's listed by Burgdorff, so perhaps they're going for the "let's create a bidding war" strategy on pricing.

Can't wait to see how this one unfolds.

6/13/2006 01:09:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Actually Harvard JCHS has been challenged before by Dean Baker in the past:

http://www.cepr.net/publications/Harvard_Housing_Bubble.htm

Harvard has been pretty consistently rosy, despite the market being out of whack:

http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/publications/markets/son2005/index.html

I find their outlook to be a bit too sunny for comfort. It's naive to think their heavy support from the RE industry has no effect.

Only kind of research I trust is independent, and this isn't quite cutting it for me.

6/13/2006 01:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

>>First rule of analysis: consider the source. >>

Exactly. And what axe do you Bubble Bloggers have to grind?

Why do you want so much to save the rest of us from ourselves?

6/13/2006 01:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"This blog is now The Gospel According to Grim and His Disciples-- and no thinking man need apply."

Bob is a thinking man

6/13/2006 01:19:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Anonymous said...
"This blog is now The Gospel According to Grim and His Disciples-- and no thinking man need apply."

Bob is a thinking man

A thinking man with blog tourettes.


BTW I have been reading the paper. It is full of information but it is obviously skewed to show everything in a positive light even the negatives. Like the IOs, Page 17 talks about them as "innovations" Here is the story since 2003 according to the second to last paragraph, 20% IOs, 37% ARM and payment option (neg Am) 10%. My math shows that fully over 2/3 of loans issued were exotics. How is that sustainable, especially with rate increases.

Harvard should change their motto from "Veritas" (truth) to "very sad"

6/13/2006 01:33:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

This blog is now The Gospel According to Grim and His Disciples-- and no thinking man need apply.
6/13/2006 01:43:47 PM

dude - give us a slight bit of credit

I know you are just trolling us anyway.

Sincerely,
Graduate of
Hunter College High School 1986
Cornell University 1990
University of Chicago 1997

Formerly employed by:
PriceWaterhouseCoopers
AT&T Treasury

Assisted in originating, pricing and syndicating a $9B Corporate Bond Deal.

Managed the largest non-financial Commerical Paper program across Y2K, which at its peak had $10B in market value of securities outstanding.

Currently assist people in making personal decisions appropriate for their situation regarding, among other things, real estate.


Please go sell something.

6/13/2006 01:40:00 PM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

Troll alert? :)

I have my BS from Cal Tech in 86, MS from Stanford in 88 and Ph.D. from U C Berkeley in 1995.

worked for NASA and was a professor and studied under a Nobel laureate.

Featured on the front page of WSJ and was on CNN, CNBC, etc.

a follower? hardly.

Go spray some perfume at Macy's.

6/13/2006 01:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey, I'm not selling anything, honest. I'm just the idiot who bought his house for $190K in 1975. Last year, it was worth $2 million...this year, less, without a doubt.

Some of you folks urged me to sell it now, before I lose even more money.

Not so sure that's good advice, but I'm at least listening, without the know-it-all attitude you folks seem to have.

I just wonder why you're all so obviously anxious to see real estate prices collapse so completely, that's all.

As I said, I'm a contrarian, and a crankly old one at that.

6/13/2006 01:48:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Exactly. And what axe do you Bubble Bloggers have to grind?"


Uh, that median home prices are about 10X median income.


"Why do you want so much to save the rest of us from ourselves?"

Hey, if you want to buy now, go right ahead. Why are you reading this blog, it certainly won't help you sleep at night.

If someone over-extends themselves to get into a massively-overpriced house, the Anti-Fools will be around soon enough to drop 40% down.

6/13/2006 01:49:00 PM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

I have simple explanation of Harvard study.

It was written in December 2005, they misplaced it, found it now, did cut & paste of 2005 to 2006, and published it.

HAHAHAHAHAHA !!!!

6/13/2006 01:52:00 PM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

"Hey, I'm not selling anything, honest. I'm just the idiot who bought his house for $190K in 1975. Last year, it was worth $2 million...this year, less, without a doubt.

Some of you folks urged me to sell it now, before I lose even more money.

Not so sure that's good advice, but I'm at least listening, without the know-it-all attitude you folks seem to have.

I just wonder why you're all so obviously anxious to see real estate prices collapse so completely, that's all.

As I said, I'm a contrarian, and a crankly old one at that."

I am an investor. I don't want RE to collapse. If it does, it affects more than just house price. I prefer soft landing.

If our economy tanks, housing price will be the least of our worries.

I am more concerned about the overall strength of the economy.

I am not sure everyone here has the know-it-all attitude. I myself learn much from reading this blog.

I think of myself as a student in everything. I learn something new every day.

As for myself, I have a house which I bought at Feb. 2000. I sold my investment apartment May 2005 while holding onto a building I own in the middle of Orthodox Jewish neighborhood.

I would like to buy more properties 3-5 years from now.

6/13/2006 01:57:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Anonymous said...
"Hey, I'm not selling anything, honest. I'm just the idiot who bought his house for $190K in 1975. Last year, it was worth $2 million...this year, less, without a doubt. Some of you folks urged me to sell it now, before I lose even more money."

You havent lost money it is jkust worth less.

"Not so sure that's good advice, but I'm at least listening, without the know-it-all attitude you folks seem to have.

I just wonder why you're all so obviously anxious to see real estate prices collapse so completely, that's all."

Dude it just that they have appreciated beyond reason. They only have one direction to go at this point.

"As I said, I'm a contrarian, and a crankly old one at that. "

If you are a contrarian you would be in our camp. WE ARE CONTRARIANS IN CASE YOU HAVE NOT NOTICED.

6/13/2006 01:59:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

1975 Buyer,

You're sitting on a $1.8M house near the peak of a massive real estate bubble.

If you're nearing retirement, and could use an extra million in liquid, it might be a good time to sell.

Or, maybe you can trade for 32 Windermere Terrace (above).

:)

6/13/2006 02:01:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

many times your first loss is the best loss.

this is what the cheap financing
got us.

what a mess this housing thing is going to be.

plus we have a market meltdown,
so,,, many sellers will just want
out.

if you look into their eyes,, we call that fear.

What a Mess.

6/13/2006 02:03:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

It is very contrarian to have a pond, by the way.

6/13/2006 02:04:00 PM  
Blogger X-Underwriter said...

"bought his house for $190K in 1975".
"last year, it was worth $2 million"

At this point, you've made an awesome return on the property and are in no danger of losing any real money if the values go down before you eventually do sell.
Whether or not want to sell the house and move out of NJ should be a personal decision only, based on where you want to live.
Keep in mind, however, that by staying in the property you probably are incurring the risk that your gains might not be as much as you once thought.

6/13/2006 02:06:00 PM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

"bought his house for $190K in 1975".
"last year, it was worth $2 million"

Just out of curiosity, How much are the Property Taxes ??? Has the property assessed recently ?

6/13/2006 02:09:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

Gold drops most in 15 years.

this is not going to be good
for the housing markets.

6/13/2006 02:11:00 PM  
Blogger delford said...

investor david: And becasue housing has gotten out of control the downturn will be that much more severe, that is what I and others have been saying.

Had it been addressed in the summer of 03, and aggressively, we could have perhaps achieved your soft landing.


Ayy time prices get out of whack, they have to correct, the more out of whack, the more the correction. This correction will enable the next geneartion of home buyers to purchase, and so the circle continues. It happened before, and it s happening again, it really is that simple.

Nobody I repeat nobody is closed out of the market forever.

6/13/2006 02:13:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

House is in NY metro area (Greenwich CT) but not Northern NJ, sorry. Still, one of the commuter suburbs so similar in that way.

You'll cry when I tell you the taxes--$9,000/year. Greenwich govt has always been fiscally responsible, pay-as-you-go, hence the low taxes. Probably going to go up some soon, though, as the newcomers in town are demanding bigger and better everything.

Sorry to hear about the state of things in NNJ. Listings here are up 15% over last year according to the MLS figures. But alot of us crusty old timers have deep pockets, drive our old cars into the ground, and don't believe in making rash decisions.

No need to tell me to go sell perfume at Macy's..hard to believe that just disagreeing could draw so much ire from you young folks.

6/13/2006 02:25:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"You'll cry when I tell you the taxes--$9,000/year."


Yes, the pond probably isn't worth the extra $20,000 each year.

6/13/2006 02:30:00 PM  
Blogger pesche22 said...

Greenwich,, if you dont have a
15,000 sq. ft. house..

look down the nose at you.

and as has been pointed out,,
house has to be seen from the road,,not at the end of a long
driveway.

got to flash it.

6/13/2006 02:30:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

CNN uncritically swallows this Harvard report whole, and further, cites a 'National Association of Realtors' lackey:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/13/real_estate/Harvard_study_housing_slow_growth/
(triple-click to select long links)

6/13/2006 02:35:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

anon 6/13/2006 03:25:13 PM:

Just so you understand, due to the views that I have, I have been called: jealous; an idiot; a coward; a jackass; spineless; a loser.

Although I can't confirm it, the bulk of the people volleying the insults appear to be: real estate agents; salespeople for publicly traded homebuilders; individuals who purchased real estate as an investment; people who may be in the market soon to sell.

Being a veteran of internet stock boards during 1998-2000 on RagingBull.com, I hope you will understand the hyper-sensitivity that I have regarding people positing views or allegations that are unsupported.

6/13/2006 02:37:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

"Anonymous said...

No need to tell me to go sell perfume at Macy's..hard to believe that just disagreeing could draw so much ire from you young folks.

6/13/2006 03:25:13 PM"

G'wich,

We are trolled by RE agents who are contrarian to us. All views are welcome as grim says, but please do not accuse us (at least me) of wanting to see anything like economic collapse.

BTW it would help if you signed your entries so some of us could see the chain of thought instead of thinking that it is a hoard of Anonymous. Just a courtesy is all. I say welcome to you "G'wich Gus".

6/13/2006 02:44:00 PM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

If you have a house in Greenwich, CT., I would not sell it. The market is still strong in Greenwich, Ct.

I know Greenwich real well -- actually extremely intimately.

The housing market is still strong in Greenwich area. Is your house in the Old Greenwich area? near the Ocean?

P.S. About the perfume, it's an inside joke towards the real estate agents. I wasn't trying to insult you. If you felt that way, I do apologize.

6/13/2006 02:48:00 PM  
Blogger delford said...

chicagofinance: I have been called a loser, a dirty low life loser renter, also an idiot, moron, stupid, jealous, and a big know it all to name just a few. I hvev left out of course the words that go in front, such as ----- loser and so on.

I have also been called doom and gloom, and have been accused of single handly trying to bring down real estate in my area.


Now the latest one from this blog is some one telling me to adjust my meds.

Through it all however not one has been able to rationally debate any points that housing bears like myself and others have bought up. The old attack what you cannot understand, although that is a scary thought, because most of this is just plain common sense.

One telling thing however, is that some of these people who used to attack me, are now strangely silent, or outright avoid me. Interesting.

6/13/2006 02:52:00 PM  
Blogger X-Underwriter said...

"I just wonder why you're all so obviously anxious to see real estate prices collapse so completely, that's all."

Imaging your home burning down and the insurance didn't pay for anything. Then imagine all your assets and income dissapearing except about $5,000 with an annual income of about $50,000.
Now imagine yourself having to go out and find a new house with just that. Shocking, huh?
Outside of Greenwich, that's how 99% of society lives.
The next generation of homebuyers doesn't exist. People coming out of college now simply can't afford even the crappiest house in the crappiest neighborhood.

6/13/2006 02:55:00 PM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

I told some of the people I know not to buy any more investment properties. They all ganged up on me and told me that my Ph.D. is not worth much compare to their real world experiences (none of them graduated from college - they all worked hard since they finished high schools).

One now has a house on the market for $1.79M which he bought 2 years ago at $1.27M. He initially listed it at $1.85M. He bought a house last year at 1.6M during planning stage. It was initially listed at $1.8M. Same house by the same builder is listed now at $1.6M but the agent told me that it will go for $1.4M.

Another one bought a property for $850K this Jan. and in the process of putting around $500K and plan to flip it for $1.8M.

Another one bought a small house, a small building and some land within last 2 years.

They all think that they will be so rich from these property flipping. And I am the moron.

6/13/2006 02:58:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

exunerwriter said

"The next generation of homebuyers doesn't exist. People coming out of college now simply can't afford even the crappiest house in the crappiest neighborhood."

They are already in the hole from college loans (see yesterday's Usatoday)

6/13/2006 02:59:00 PM  
Anonymous G'wich Gus said...

Hey, thanks for the tip about choosing a name to post with. Your suggestion of G'wich Gus sounds good to me.

No, I'm not in OG, which I understand to be the hot area these days for the kids who want to be on 1/4 acre. I have 2 1/2 acres in the one acre-zone in G'wich. Subdividable, but not by me. Like my privacy, thank you.

House is not much to look at, I'm told, because the ceilings are only 8 feet high. That's high enough for this old man (6'4") but not for the Masters of the Universe Hedge Fund Young Turks buying property in this town now.

My house will be torn down no doubt. Always thought I'd be carried out of this place feet first before that happens but who knows.

So the market in G'wich is still strong, you say? Why are things so different here?

6/13/2006 03:04:00 PM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

Offtopic: A Look at Harvard record. In June 11, 2001 report, they praised AOL. I guess that time they still had not figured out the word "Internet BUBBLE".



AOL: You've Got Credibility!

Yet despite such dramatic change, one of AOL's distinguishing features has been its care in making sure that the market understands its business model. Since 1996, when it began its transformation from computer-networking company to media giant, AOL has consistently signaled changes in its strategic direction to the investment community, even when doing so might have seemed perverse or damaging. The market has registered its strong approval. AOL's stock price has increased 1,468% since October 1996, compared with a 100% increase in the S&P 500, which AOL joined in December 1998.

AOL's communication strategy follows four simple but often neglected rules. First, the company takes care to ensure that its financial reporting reflects its strategy as closely as possible: accounting policies are chosen to be consistent with what managers claim to be the drivers of the company's success. Second, AOL takes the lead in popularizing the nonfinancial metrics that best predict—and flatter—the performance of its businesses. Third, when it makes a change in strategy, AOL appoints top managers with recognized credibility in the new arena. Finally, AOL assiduously cultivates the capital market experts covering the industries in which it competes. In this article, I will explore each of these rules, and I will show how AOL's communication strategy has kept pace with its evolving business strategy, making it easy for investors to interpret—and reward—its results.

6/13/2006 03:04:00 PM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

Gus,

My kid plays hockey and water polo at Greenwich. I know "people" there.

One of my very good friends is a real estate lawyer in Greenwich (for a very very long time).

He told me that Greenwich real estate market is so strong that it keeps going up.

I don't think Greenwich is part of America.

I know that 1 acre of land in the ocean front property in Greenwich is about $20M.

Anybody, who is somebody, wants to have a property in Greenwich. Don't sell unless you are in the "bad" section of Greenwich.

Contrary to what people think, Greenwich is a mixed area. There are super super rich folks there and there are also very very poor people.

Remember the Gun scare at the Greenwich high by the kids from Stamford?

6/13/2006 03:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

G'wich Gus,
Let's keep these conversations to discussing the housing bubble at large, not you own personal interests

6/13/2006 03:11:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

So the market in G'wich is still strong, you say? Why are things so different here?
6/13/2006 04:04:20 PM

You know the answer to that question. As we know, the richest 0.5% of the population [i.e. Greenwich] are benefitting tremendously in this environment.

What you should be tracking is the performance of hedge funds, and hedge fund compensation. If there is a blow-up or mass exodus, your real estate market will be on the cusp of the change.

6/13/2006 03:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey, Chicago:

PWC Phila Consulting '87-'95

Hi.

Pat

6/13/2006 04:05:00 PM  
Anonymous G'wich Gus said...

Sorry if my personal postings are not of interest. I'll try to do better.

But the Greenwich "exception" to the bubble, if there is one, is interesting generally, no?

Is it possible that there will be a "flight to quality" in real estate if things get really bad?

I mean, will choice property like waterfront move contrary to the rest of the real estate market?

6/13/2006 04:26:00 PM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

Gus,

I am interested in your personal story. A big picture is made up with thousands of small pictures and stories.

Don't let some "anonymous" poster stop you from telling your story.

The choice Water Front Property in Greenwich will always move, no matter what.

But some part of the Greenwich will get affected if the economy becomes real bad.

are you in Cos cob?

Not all Greenwich is the same as you know.

When was the last time you visited the Boys and Girls Club at night? There are so many kids there at night, whose parents have to work late at night as helpers for the Old Greenwich folks.

6/13/2006 04:32:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Isn't the "Greenwich is different" argument the same as the "Summit is different" argument?

If real estate can appreciate in Greenwich, it can certainly decline in Greenwich, otherwise that $20M house on the water would have also cost $20M fifty years ago.

6/13/2006 04:45:00 PM  
Anonymous G'wich Gus said...

Greenwich does have a very tony image, to be sure.

But there are three public housing projects in town that outsiders don't seem to know exist.

6/13/2006 04:48:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

unreal:

You are -of course- correct. I guess the point here is that Greenwich is one of the premier towns in the entire country. A good number of the buyers do not even need to finance their homes, and developers have no power.

I won't speak for people who would know better.

I guess certain parts of Short Hills may equate, but really nowhere in NJ is there a place with equivalent cachet.

Summit is a middle class backwater by comparison.

Just my opinion.

6/13/2006 04:57:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

to be clear

residents of Greenwich are not spending in excess of 30% of their annual income on housing

6/13/2006 04:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have an MBA from NYU and two undergraduate degrees. Harvard recruited me for their summer high school program when I qualified for the Indiana state chemistry finals (sent me a polite thanks, but no thanks when they saw my grades).

My father-in-law has been beating me over the head about my opinions on the real estate market for the last two years. Basically, "...real estate never goes down!"

Fortunately, my father has 30+ years in real estate, construction and a PHD in finance. He's not as negative as me, but he does believe there will be a one to two year dip and then a slow rebound. He also thinks a lot of people are in for real pain when the ARMs and IO's readjust and can't believe the lending standards.

JM

6/13/2006 05:50:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

6/13/2006 05:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, discussing Greenwich is really like talking about the Upper East Side. Yes, you can find an affordable apartment on the Upper East Side if your wallet is big and you look hard enough, but when the pitch comes, Greenwich and the Upper East Side will feel it last. Summit will be affordable long before Greenwich opens its doors to most of us.

And, by the way, the crash will come in NNJ; it's just a question of when and how much.

WM

6/13/2006 05:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

gwich gus, anon 1:43 etc.

If you feel the "board" did not give you the answer you were looking for (i.e., "don't sell your place") you should try the real estate blogs that NAR supports...they may give you the advice you are looking for.

It is indeed interesting that you came to NNJ housing bubble blog and wish to tell us about your gwich propertiy that you think is not inflated.

Sounds like you already know that you are not going to sell...Good idea if you ask me...why not? After all one thing you should know is that everyone is free to make their own decisions..buy now, buy later, sell now, sell later..sit on the fence, hold the bag...etc...you get the idea.

Good luck whatever you choose to do..hopefully greenwich will not go down...but nobody here really knows for sure...you are your best ally!!

cheers
DK

6/13/2006 06:03:00 PM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

unrealtor,

I don't think you can compare Summit to Greenwich. I know both areas pretty well. No comparison.

Summit doesn't come even close to Old Greenwich.

My kid had a sleep-over at one of his hockey buddy's house. I believe the house was worth somewhere around $70M and that was one of many houses they own (his dad is the 2nd man in one of the biggest investment banks in this country).

Another kid's grandpa own a small baseball team called NY Mets.

Another kid's live with his uncle. I think his name is Mark Messier.

And another kid's father is a first line center for the NY Rangers ( I think his dad pulled $3M last year).

Most of these guys are either very old money (true blue blood) or CEO or partners in marqui investment firms.

But as Gus said, they do have public housing and it creates a lot of problems in Greenwich.

6/13/2006 06:27:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

DK, you said much of what I wanted to tell G'wich.

There is a time and a place to challenge acceptable socio-economic ideas, assumptions and norms.

Should be.

Unfortunately, during the last three years, none of the appropriate venues, including those public institutions that we have vested with the responsibility of regulating, monitoring and correcting the RE and mtg. industries, has taken the bull by the balls.

I'm no crusader, and have no right to preach to anyone.

But if discussing the topic helps one other person avoid signing a suicide mortgage just to get a $500K roof over their heads, then maybe I used my brain for something besides ear glue.

Pat

6/13/2006 06:36:00 PM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

For a comparison purpose, one of the kids who used to play hockey with my kid lives in Alpine. I believe his father bought the house from Mariah Carey about 10 years ago at $30M. After our team won the state of NJ championship, we had a party at his house. I believe his house is around $60M now.

This house was worth less but much nicer than the house in Old Greenwich, which was worth $70M.

6/13/2006 06:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

investordavid:

boring, boring, boring . . . .

6/13/2006 06:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wasn't in the NYC area during the last dowturn, but I was in California in the early 90s.

And the elite towns in Si Valley -- Atherton, Los Altos Hills -- they took their lumps in the last downturn like everyone else.

6/13/2006 07:15:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

"I wasn't in the NYC area during the last dowturn, but I was in California in the early 90s.

"And the elite towns in Si Valley -- Atherton, Los Altos Hills -- they took their lumps in the last downturn like everyone else."


I was in Atherton Two years ago at my sister-in-laws in-laws house. Anyway Just two years ago the house sold for almost 5 Milion Just a 2100 sq/ft ranch with a pool on .5 acres. Nice place but really pricey stuff.

Maybe I did not see the SI valley influence but the houses all around the place are packed in and ugly especially north of Atherton.

6/13/2006 07:23:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Seems REinvestor is late to the game, again.

6/13/2006 07:25:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Summit doesn't come even close to Old Greenwich."


I wasn't comparing the two towns, per se, but the notion that a given town is "immune."

We had a thread awhile back where people thought Summit property values would never go down, because of top-rated schools, and the Midtown direct train line, etc. Problem is, all that was true 4 years ago, when properties cost 100% less.

Greenwich may "be different" but I wouldn't gamble my life, or savings on it.

6/13/2006 07:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

gsmls - 30,848

I guess more opportunities for our investor friends.

6/13/2006 07:40:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Problem is, all that was true 4 years ago, when properties cost 100% less."

Wow -- they were free 4 years back :-) ?

6/13/2006 08:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

unrealtor @ 6/13/2006 08:25:48 PM

you mean the realtor who thinks he is a investor?

6/13/2006 08:08:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Wow -- they were free 4 years back :-) ?"



Yes, yes, thank you. :)

6/13/2006 08:08:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

unreal:

I agree that you are correct about Greenwich.

I guess the point is that if your Greenwich home drops in value from $70M to $55M, the likely reaction is "wow - kinda sucks", as opposed to "my entire life is ruined forever".

But again, you are right.

6/13/2006 09:30:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

you wouldn't want to live in Greenwich unless you were loaded. if you can't keep up with your neighbors then you'll be shunned and an outcast. this is pretty much true in any of the wealthy towns, particularly those that are heavily populated with Wall Streeters like Westfield.

6/13/2006 09:51:00 PM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

Interesting back and forth here. Although some of the tools that post anonymously make me glad that the new forum does not allow anonymous posting.

Chicagofinance, I look forward to your views, in particular.

6/13/2006 09:53:00 PM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

6/14/2006 07:37:00 AM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

unrealtor,

The price will go down in Greenwich just like any other places as you stated. But it will be one of the last places to be affected -- well after Summit.

In my area, northeast Bergen County, the housing price went down 5%-10% since last Summer.

But in Greenwich, instead of going down, it is still going up and demand is far greater than the supply in Old Greenwich.

You can still buy a house in Greenwich for $600K but I wouldn't want to live in that part of the town.

6/14/2006 07:44:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

I'm not buying the "Greenwich is different" argument.

there are currently 145 houses for sale in Greenwich between $1 and 2 million. These places were worth $500,000-1,000,000 in 2000.

There are a lot of true elites in Greenwich, but it is still a big town. The CEOs and hedge fund managers are not buying these rather ordinary $1,000,000 houses. Junior people who work in Greenwich don't necessarily live in them either. A lot of people reverse commute from the city or live in outlying areas where housing is relatively affordable. Moreover, you've got towns just across the border in Westchester that are nearly as posh with a glut of $1,000,000+ homes for sale. Same goes for Darien and other similar towns in Fairfield County.

Seems to me that there are many more pretty much middle class old timers in Greenwich trying to cash in by selling at the peak than there are first time buyers ready to step into their overpriced ordinary homes (even if they are in Greenwich)

6/14/2006 10:47:00 AM  
Anonymous G'wich Gus said...

Interesting for this middle class old timer, as you put it, to see Greenwich so discussed.

You're right that nobody wants our "rather ordinary" $1MM houses. What they seem to want is the land underneath them.

The town tax assessor gave a talk on this a couple of months ago when the new assessments came out. Gist was that if your house was built before 1985 it's a teardown.

I would hope that rule doesn't apply to the big old stone places in town though, built before the war. They have a class that just can't be duplicated.

Those posh towns in Westchester, by the way, have a tax rate that is four times higher than G'wich.

6/14/2006 11:22:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

the tax rates in Westchester are shockingly high compared to CT, but I'm not sure how much of an effect this has in terms of property values.

On a $1M house, you're already looking at $5200 per month in mortgage payments (assuming 20% down), so I don't know if an extra $500 per month is really gonna make or break you if you are in this market.

The teardown phenomenon is huge where I live in Westchester as I'm sure it is in Greenwich as well. The problem is that there are only so many people who can afford the newly-built multi-million dollar homes, even in these very high income areas.

There are currently 266 houses for sale in Greenwich over $2M. There are 112 over $4M. That is a huge amount of high end inventory, even in a town like Greenwich. I'm sure a lot of them were bought before construction began, but many are spec built and I think the prices on these are going to be cut very fast (and will drive down the rest of the high end prices).

6/14/2006 11:52:00 AM  
Anonymous G'wich Gus said...

No so sure about the huge inventory you speak of. This RE company (no connection to me or mine) has statistics posted going back 5 or so years. Shows a 15% rise in inventory compared with the same month last year:

http://www.liveingreenwich.com/marketdata.htm

6/14/2006 12:17:00 PM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

the inventory numbers on that site do show a major dropoff in what I'd consider "affordable" homes in Greenwich, but the high end inventory has been going up steadily. Of course, any claim of "huge" inventory is subjective, but it seems to me, as evidenced by the dearth of properties at the low end, that many of these higher priced properties would sell if sellers had more realistic asking prices

6/14/2006 04:11:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

greenwich has alot of inventory and sales have slowed down significantly.

6/14/2006 08:17:00 PM  
Anonymous G'wich Bus said...

I'd like to see the data to back that up. Am I being misled by the broker's site I've been looking at?

Inventory of single-family houses is up less than 15% over last year at this time according to that broker's figures. Fudged, do you think?

Inventory of condos is way up, though, I suspect due to a new condo conversion that is going on in town.

6/14/2006 09:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi, i was looking over your blog and didn't
quite find what I was looking for. I'm looking for
different ways to earn money... I did find this though...
a place where you can make some nice extra cash secret shopping. Just go to the site below
and put in your zip to see what's available in your area.
I made over $900 last month having fun!
make extra money

6/15/2006 11:42:00 PM  
Blogger Paul Adams said...

Hello Friend! I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with
the information you have posted here.
I also have a web site & blog about loans center so I know I'm talking
about when I say yours is top-notch! Keep up the
great work, you are providing a great resource on the Internet here!
If you have a moment, please visit my site loans center
Best success!

6/19/2006 10:39:00 PM  
Blogger Joe Berenguer said...

I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you, Friend, how impressed I was with it.
I give you my best wishes for your future endeavors.
If you have a moment, please visit my site:
credit center
It covers credit center related contents.
All the best!

6/20/2006 12:50:00 AM  
Blogger Paul Adams said...

Hey Blogger, you have a great blog here! I'm definitely going to bookmark you!
I have a loans center site. It pretty much covers loans center related subjects.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)
Best regards!

6/20/2006 05:58:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Surfing for information on real estate, and I stumbled across your blog. Interesting work. Good read. Visit my site if you have a chance.

6/20/2006 02:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hint #13 for . Three is A Crowd: Avoid having too many people present during a showing. Potential buyers need to feel at home, not like intruders being hurried through the house.

6/20/2006 03:04:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

. Silence Is Golden: Be courteous but don't force conversation with a potential buyer. He wants to inspect your house, not pay a social visit.
Go here for more ideas.

6/20/2006 10:27:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Has the Housing Bubble popped? says "Yes!" A typical subdivision -- the Boca Country Club -- characterizes the area, and the problem.

6/21/2006 07:33:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Someone knows how to bring a lot of into your home, over a single weekend. Opportunity attracts them. Emotion captures them. Competition excites them. Their wallets open. Top dollar for your home pops out in an open bidding process that concludes on a single Sunday afternoon .

6/21/2006 10:59:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hint #6 for . Clutter will clog a sale: Display the full value of your space by removing all unnecessary articles. Consider storing things you don't need all the time.

6/21/2006 12:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Already starting to get ready for another hurricane season in Florida. Starts in June. Not sure how it will effect my real estate work. Tough business right now. So I enjoy taking a break and seeing what other people are up to. Enjoyed visiting your blog. Visit my site if you have a chance.

6/21/2006 06:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Potential buyers have to say "yes" many times to purchase your home ... but a single "no" over a seemingly minor item can kill the deal. You can do something about this.

6/22/2006 09:08:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The No. 1 sellers' complaint on the is the "showing" process ... the line of people trudging through their home, inspecting their lives, in search of who knows what .

6/22/2006 10:20:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Find the best information online about offshore bank account at BankingServices.ca

6/23/2006 12:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

. Silence Is Golden: Be courteous but don't force conversation with a potential buyer. He wants to inspect your house, not pay a social visit.
Go here for more ideas.

6/23/2006 02:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Enjoyed visiting your site. Got to get back to my own, where we spotlight homes for sale on a website dedicated exclusively to the selling of a home. Not just any old website. But a website highly-ranked in the search engines , with thousands of back links already in place, directing traffic to a seller's exclusive listing.

6/23/2006 11:28:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Potential buyers have to say "yes" many times to purchase your home ... but a single "no" over a seemingly minor item can kill the deal. You can do something about this.

6/24/2006 02:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

With the , you don't have strangers coming through your home, day after day, often week after week, at times which are not always convenient. Your home must look great ... truly great ... for one weekend only .

6/24/2006 05:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

When I go blogging, it often ends up a fruitless journey. I often think I'd do better if I just stuck with my own real estate sites ... and then I come across a blog like yours, and it make the trip worthwhile. Thanks. Visit my site if you have a chance.

6/25/2006 07:24:00 AM  
Anonymous top ten stock picks said...

I was searching blogs,and I found yours.Please,
accept my congratulations for your excellent work!
If you have a moment, please visit my top ten stock picks site.
Have a good day!

6/25/2006 09:25:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

. Pets Underfoot? Keep them out of the way ... preferably out of the house. Many people are acutely uncomfortable around animals. Nothing can stop a sale faster than man's best friend, wagging its friendly tail at a prospect with an allergy.
Go here for more ideas.

6/25/2006 01:18:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hint #4 for . Fix That Faucet! Dripping water suggests faulty plumbing, one of the greatest fears that savvy buyers have.

6/25/2006 10:20:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You can do a lot to For example, curb appeal sells: do some landscaping. Plant some flowers. Remember that the front door greets buyers. Make sure it offers potential a bright, warm welcome.

6/26/2006 09:23:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The average home is currently on the for about 4 months before it goes to contract. Around 15% of initial real estate contracts never make it to a successful closing ... something goes wrong, and the frustrated seller puts the home back on the real estate market .

6/27/2006 02:28:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

. Pets Underfoot? Keep them out of the way ... preferably out of the house. Many people are acutely uncomfortable around animals. Nothing can stop a sale faster than man's best friend, wagging its friendly tail at a prospect with an allergy.
Go here for more ideas.

6/27/2006 03:23:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Blog-hopping is a habit I am trying to break since my own real estate work requires a lot of attention to detail. Then I run into a blog like yours and I�m reminded about how the internet expands our views positively. Thanks for the read. Visit my site if you have a chance.

6/27/2006 10:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you're selling your home, consider . Faded walls and worn woodwork reduce a lot more than house appeal. They cut into your price. Invest in a few cans of paint. Brighten up the interior. .

6/28/2006 06:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

. Silence Is Golden: Be courteous but don't force conversation with a potential buyer. He wants to inspect your house, not pay a social visit.
Go here for more ideas.

6/29/2006 02:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

In the year prior to Hurricane Wilma, which ripped through south Florida in October, 2005, 64 homes had new owners at the . A snapshot of the present may show the Housing Bubble has already popped.

6/29/2006 05:09:00 PM  
Anonymous annual credit report said...

Hi Fellow! I was just searching blogs,and I found yours! I like it!
If you have a moment, please visit my annual credit report site.
Good luck!

6/30/2006 03:16:00 AM  
Anonymous annual payment amortization said...

Hi Friend! You have a great blog over here!
Please accept my compliments and wishes for your happiness and success!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my annual payment amortization site.
Have a great day!

6/30/2006 03:32:00 AM  
Anonymous annual payment amortization said...

Hi Friend! You have a great blog over here!
Please accept my compliments and wishes for your happiness and success!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my annual payment amortization site.
Have a great day!

6/30/2006 03:32:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bonjour tout le monde, je me permet de vous laisser un message sur votre blog pour vous informer qu'en surfant sur le net je suis tomb�e sur un site tr�s int�ressant et professionnel.
A tous les amoureux des usa, d�sireux de cr�er votre soci�t�, il existe un �tat sans charges: le DELAWARE.un paradis fiscal!
Et ce fameux site en question: USACOMPANYCORPORATION.COM, propose l'aide � la cr�ation de votre entreprise de A � Z, jusqu'� la cr�ation d'un compte bancaire aux �tats unis, sans m�me se d�placer.
Apr�s avoir contact� le cabinet, je peux vous affirmer que ce dernier est on ne peut plus s�rieux, et je vous le recommande vivement.
Vous pouvez foncer sans probl�me!
Pour plus d'information, allez visiter le site http://www.usacompanycorporation.com.
bonne visite et bonne chance � vous!

6/30/2006 04:06:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hint #9 for . Bathrooms Sell Homes: Check and repair caulking in bathtubs and showers. Make the room sparkle!

6/30/2006 06:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Even if you sell your home "as is, subject to inspection" � you can do a lot to . A top-notch Realtor� will probably hand you a list of at least a dozen things you can do to help improve your sale. If they don't, well, maybe you need to .

6/30/2006 07:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Enjoyed visiting your blog. Good read. Any of your readers want to put in front of thousands of potential buyers immediately. Uniquely. Literally in a way no other real estate experts can ... .

7/01/2006 05:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Already starting to get ready for another hurricane season in Florida. Starts in June. Not sure how it will effect my real estate work. Tough business right now. So I enjoy taking a break and seeing what other people are up to. Enjoyed visiting your blog. Visit my site if you have a chance.

7/01/2006 06:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Blogging is not always a rewarding journey, but I ran across yours on this trip and it was a good break from my own real estate work. Thanks. Keep up the interesting work and visit my site if you have a chance.

7/01/2006 06:25:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hint #5 for . Loose knobs, sticking and squeaking doors and windows, warped cabinet drawers, and other minor flaws detract from home value. Fix them. Most buyers assume there will be ten hidden problems for every one they see.

7/01/2006 06:27:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The No. 1 sellers' complaint on the is the "showing" process ... the line of people trudging through their home, inspecting their lives, in search of who knows what .

7/03/2006 08:38:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If a "hot" real estate area cools off, who's going to argue that it does not have larger implications? , Florida, may have some valuable lessons for the real estate industry as a whole.

7/03/2006 08:46:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Every time I am about to give up blogging, I run into something which catches my attention � like your blog � which is a pleasant distraction from the difficulties of my own real estate work. Thanks for the read. Visit my site if you have a chance.

7/03/2006 12:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

With the , you don't have strangers coming through your home, day after day, often week after week, at times which are not always convenient. Your home must look great ... truly great ... for one weekend only .

7/04/2006 08:11:00 AM  
Anonymous auto insurance quote sr22 said...

I am here because of search results for blogs with a related topic to mine.
Please,accept my congratulations for your excellent work!
I have a auto insurance quote sr22 site.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)
Best regards!

7/04/2006 08:16:00 AM  
Anonymous apply for coca cola scholarships said...

I was searching blogs,and I found yours.Please,
accept my congratulations for your excellent work!
If you have a moment, please visit my apply for coca cola scholarships site.
Have a good day!

7/04/2006 08:24:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hint #10 for . Arrange Bedrooms Neatly: Remove excess furniture. Use attractive bedspreads and window treatments, with freshly laundered curtains if you use them.

7/04/2006 06:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hint #4 for . Fix That Faucet! Dripping water suggests faulty plumbing, one of the greatest fears that savvy buyers have.

7/04/2006 09:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your blog was fun to visit. Not exactly what I was looking for. But fun. BTW, while the broad brushstrokes of successful marketing remain the same on the cyber battlefield of selling homes today, the rule book has changed. That's what we deal with on our websites. ... .

7/04/2006 09:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don�t really have a useful comment on your site, but it was a nice break from my own real estate work. I just weanted you to know I enjoyed the visit and hope you can visit my site if you have a chance.

7/04/2006 09:14:00 PM  
Blogger Debt Consolidation Refinance said...

Great Blog! I love to see informative sites and active discussion. I have bookmarked this site so I can check in from time to time. If you have a chance check out this site http:\\www.customortgage.net which has alot of valuable info on Investment property refinance Thanks again for the Blog

7/05/2006 01:20:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

When I go blogging, it often ends up a fruitless journey. I often think I'd do better if I just stuck with my own real estate sites ... and then I come across a blog like yours, and it make the trip worthwhile. Thanks. Visit my site if you have a chance.

7/05/2006 07:44:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Already starting to get ready for another hurricane season in Florida. Starts in June. Not sure how it will effect my real estate work. Tough business right now. So I enjoy taking a break and seeing what other people are up to. Enjoyed visiting your blog. Visit my site if you have a chance.

7/05/2006 12:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

. Noise does not sell well. Let the Realtor� and buyer talk, free of disturbances. Background "soft playing" music is okay, but the wrong sounds will turn buyers off. Noisy children and animals are roadblocks to a contract � and traffic, trains, and planes must be dealt with honestly, if they are part of the deal. Go here for more ideas.

7/05/2006 12:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The average home is currently on the for about 4 months before it goes to contract. Around 15% of initial real estate contracts never make it to a successful closing ... something goes wrong, and the frustrated seller puts the home back on the real estate market .

7/06/2006 12:42:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Someone knows how to bring a lot of into your home, over a single weekend. Opportunity attracts them. Emotion captures them. Competition excites them. Their wallets open. Top dollar for your home pops out in an open bidding process that concludes on a single Sunday afternoon .

7/06/2006 03:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The No. 1 sellers' complaint on the is the "showing" process ... the line of people trudging through their home, inspecting their lives, in search of who knows what .

7/06/2006 08:25:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Blackstone, a public company, has a well-deserved reputation as a savvy real estate group. Will their investment blow up in their face?

7/07/2006 12:04:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Enjoyed visiting your site. Got to get back to my own, where we spotlight homes for sale on a website dedicated exclusively to the selling of a home. Not just any old website. But a website highly-ranked in the search engines , with thousands of back links already in place, directing traffic to a seller's exclusive listing.

7/07/2006 10:29:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hint #6 for . Clutter will clog a sale: Display the full value of your space by removing all unnecessary articles. Consider storing things you don't need all the time.

7/07/2006 10:56:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So many blogs, so little time. Got to get back to work on my own real estate sites. Enjoyed the visit. Stop by my site if you have a chance.

7/07/2006 12:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

With the , you don't have strangers coming through your home, day after day, often week after week, at times which are not always convenient. Your home must look great ... truly great ... for one weekend only .

7/07/2006 11:05:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hint #11 for . You Can Sell Pride Of Ownership. Cleanliness counts. Potpourrie works. So does a nice-smelling stew simmering on the stove. Happy buyers often tell us: "I liked the smell of the home." And you'd be surprised how many people walked away from a "perfect" home because "the owners were smokers."

7/08/2006 05:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

In this "cooling off" real estate market, suggest that the average residence is shown about 4 times a week during the first 3 weeks of a real estate listing. After that, an unsold home goes "stale" ... it gets shown less .

7/08/2006 11:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

With the , you don't have strangers coming through your home, day after day, often week after week, at times which are not always convenient. Your home must look great ... truly great ... for one weekend only .

7/09/2006 12:27:00 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home