Monday, July 31, 2006

Another worry to add to the list

From CBS:

NE Hurricane Could Cripple Economy

This month, the nation's best hurricane experts met for the first time ever with nervous insurance industry reps about a storm lurking beyond the horizon.

"The risk is increasing and it's increasing every year," catastrophe risk analyst Karen Clark told CBS News correspondent Michelle Miller.

That storm a long overdue northeast hurricane which the latest computer models now predict could devastate the region and cripple the U.S. economy.

"It will be the largest financial disaster that this country has ever seen," Clark, the president and CEO of AIR Worldwide, said.

A direct hit on New York's Long Island by a Category 3 or higher hurricane would cost $100 billion.

But the same size storm spinning into central New Jersey would be catastrophic — raking New York and points north with its strongest winds. The result: $200 billion in damages and lost business.

"And much of that disruption will not be covered by insurance," Clark said.
...
A major northeast hurricane is nearly three times more likely this year thanks to favorable weather conditions, including the position of the Bermuda High. Last year it pushed storms southwest. Now it's set to steer hurricanes up the East Coast.

8 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I lived in Florida through the hurricane season 2004. Every time one hit I had I 5k deductible and my insurnace rates kept rising. It was a complete nightmare.
If that happens in the NE (Jersey Shore), I would be worried too. No power, gas, etc. for 2+ weeks. RE tanked in FL right after that - big time. Good bye beach front property...it's worth zero.

7/31/2006 10:30:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Off Topic:

Bergen County SFH ONLY
Sales - Under Contract - Available - Median Price

April 2006 / 2005
Sold 389 / 531
UC 639 / 782
Avail 4,082 / 2,925
Med$ $480k / $475k

May 2006 / 2005
Sold 554 / 608
UC 796 / 799
Avail 4,549 / 2,925
Med$ $525k / $487k

June 2006 / 2005
Sold 659 / 841
UC 659 / 865
Avail 4,714 / 3,074
Med$ $530k / $530k

July 2006 / 2005
Sold 624 / 778
UC 543 / 660
Avail 4,595 / 3,148
Med$ $525k / $525k

Bergen County SFH, Townhouse, Condo Co-op
July 2006 / 2005
Sold 843 / 1,081
UC 739 / 938
Active 6,429 / 4,158
Med$ $490k / $480k

There are more SFH active now than there were total units (SFH,TWNHS,CONDO,CO-OP) this time last year!

PS: NAR Pending Home Sales release tomorrow

7/31/2006 10:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No hurricane is going to strike the NorthEast this year. This is plain nonsense. Just because there is a theoritical probability of 1 in a 100 years does not mean we are due (anymore than someone playing the roulette thinks that he is going to win since he lost the last few times).

CNS

8/01/2006 03:27:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

In addition to Pending Home Sales:

Personal Income
Personal Spending
(Savings Rate)
Construction Spending
ISM Index

grim

8/01/2006 05:17:00 AM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Bergen County SFH, Townhouse, Condo Co-op
July 2006 / 2005 / 2004 / 2003 / 2002
Sold: 843 / 1,081 / 1,282 / 1,130 / 1,069
UC: 739 / 938 / 967 / 1,138 / 893
Active: 6,429 / 4,158 / 4,136 / ? / ?
Med$: $490k / $480k / $455k / $380k / $335k

8/01/2006 07:51:00 AM  
Blogger NJGal said...

"No hurricane is going to strike the NorthEast this year. This is plain nonsense. Just because there is a theoritical probability of 1 in a 100 years does not mean we are due"

Unfortunately, insurance companies are listening to these predictions, and it is already impossible for people in certain areas to get insurance - I believe certain towns on LI no longer qualify.

8/01/2006 07:58:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

if newark and camden went under water, that would be a good thing.

bulldoze it , and its a do over.

however, let them get jobs and pay for it themselves.

look whats going on in New Orleans.

This is insane,,NJ is finished

8/01/2006 08:53:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

CNS - Hurricanes are more common in the Northeast than you either care to admit or are blissfully ignorant about.

In this area the "Storm of 1938" stands out as a very destructive storm as well as Hurricane Gloria. More recently, just look at the flooding damage throughout NJ Tropical Storm Floyd did in 1999, and that was a relatively minor storm by comparison.

Historical weather patterns are cyclical. The Northeast is due.

8/01/2006 05:14:00 PM  

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