Home Builders' Confidence Lowest Since 1991
From Marketwatch:
Home builders index falls to 15-year low
From the NAHB:
Builder Confidence Slips Again In July
Home builders index falls to 15-year low
Home builders' confidence plunged to a 15-year low in July, reflecting growing worries about rising interest rates and declining affordability, the National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday.
The NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index fell three more points to 39 in July, the lowest since December 1991. A reading of 50 would mean sentiment is balanced equally among builders who think the market is good and those who think it's poor.
The index peaked at 72 last June and has fallen in 11 months since then. It's the fastest decline in the 21-year history of the index, which has had a fairly good record of predicting the number of new homes started.
From the NAHB:
Builder Confidence Slips Again In July
Increased concerns about interest rates and housing affordability caused builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes to slip three more notches to 39, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for July, reported today.
“The HMI is down from its most recent cyclical high of 72 in June of last year, and reflects growing builder uncertainly on the heels of reduced sales and increased cancellations related to eroding affordability as well as an ongoing withdrawal of investors/speculators from the marketplace,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders.
...
All three component indexes fell in July. The largest decline was in the index gauging sales expectations for the next six months, which fell five points to 46. The index gauging current sales of new single-family homes fell four points to 43 and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell two points to 27.
Builders in the West region, who have been the most optimistic in the HMI for some time, recorded the biggest dip in confidence this time around, with a nine-point decline to 51. Builders in the Northeast posted a five-point decline to 36, and builders in the Midwest posted a four-point decline to 21. The HMI for the large South region edged up two points to 50, although this measure still is down considerably from a cyclical high of 77 in June of last year.
55 Comments:
Kearny,, McMansion?
Nice town, great place to raise
a family.
'Suspicious' Kearny fire
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
By JACK HERMAN
JOURNAL STAFF WRITER
KEARNY - Fire officials are investigating the cause of a suspicious blaze sparked Saturday night at a "McMansion" under construction on Davis Avenue, Kearny Fire Chief Joe Lapsanski said.
The fire started just before 9 p.m. at the construction site, which consisted only of frames, studs and a foundation, Lapsanski said.
"There was no source for the fire to start," the chief said. "There was no electricity, no gas to the building."
The intense blaze had flames shooting 150 feet in the air, Lapsanski said, and the heat shattered windows on nearby buildings and melted aluminum siding on houses 250 feet away.
Kearny firefighters, with the help of Harrison, Jersey City and North Arlington fire departments, were able to get the blaze under control within an hour, Lapsanski said. Only the foundation remained of the building, he said.
Their quick efforts prevented the fire from spreading to the nearby Our Lady of Sorrows Church, Lapsanski said.
One firefighter was injured and treated for an injury after hitting his head while passing a ladder, Lapsanski said.
Jersey City Arson Investigators, state fire marshals and officials from the federal Department of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms were all investigating, Lapsanski said.
MISERY INDEX GROWING
BOOOOOOOOOOYYYYYYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Hey Bob..OTS, but have you been heading to the shore lately (namely, Sandy Hook?)
http://tinyurl.com/jedup
Humor is healing, no?
Pat
grim said...
'Suspicious' Kearny fire
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
By JACK HERMAN
JOURNAL STAFF WRITER
Since 2002 there have been quite a few fires in the Englewood and Englewood Cliffs area. I guess if a bunch of your neighbors are knocking down and putting up new, people figure why not have the insurance pick up the tab. Stiff jail sentences is needed.
PhD I sold a house in the area and plan on renting for 2 more years. Your monthly outlay will be 1/2 what you would pay using a traditional mortgage. Englewood's property revaluations go into effect Jan 07' Ugly is not a strong enough word. Cliffs the asking prices and builder spec homes are ground zero for the "housing bubble"
ps: old timers from the area recall the 88 boom times, Englewood downtown shops bustling etc. by 94 it was a ghost town.
Englewood cliffs,,
wonderful community, low taxes.
great commute.
Anon Phd
Englewood by a great majority Lefty's (Dem's in Socialist's clothing) on both sides of the city.
Englewood Cliffs mostly real Dem's and rightys.
Bob Torricelli lived in Leftywood I mean Englewood until 2002...birds of a feather...
Anonymous said...
"Englewood cliffs,,
wonderful community, low taxes.
great commute."
7/18/2006 03:44:51 PM
All of it means nothing if you pay $1.1m (median sale in 05') for a run down ranch, which is really worth maybe $650,000...only worth the 650# because of the great community, low taxes, commute via car to NYC. They share Englewood's High School; unless your kid is gonna be a rapper or a gang banger...factor in annual per child private High School tuition of $10k to $28k depending upon where.
There are numerous brand new "cheat em and how" pretty looking, cheap materials, builder houses; for sale ranging from $3 and $4 million, listed for over a year now.
on the west side make sure you carry a handgun.
Do you think the average Joe or Betty Realtor@ know that home builders' confidence is the lowest since 1991?
Is this on their radar as personally impacting them?
Pat
Anonymous said...
"on the west side make sure you carry a handgun."
7/18/2006 04:07:00 PM
Quiet down folks,State Senator (thanks to Corzine) Loretta Weinberg would not approve. I had a conversation with her when my office was in Leftywood about my right to carry infringed in NJ etc. she said NO way in NJ, the pos that would try to rob me "is really a victim of society and give em whatever they ask"
5 story's of all wood, no steel anywhere, possibility of becoming Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz, when a hurricane hits...and it will.
Ken Albert the Englewood city engineer approved that one wink wink, in concert with the former Mayor Paul Fader (McSceevey's top hwy guy) Fader's brother is a RE developer, my oh my, how the water in the toilet goes round and round.
phD Why would you buy now?
Englewood has location, location, location but also has taxes,taxes,taxes. It has some of the highest tax rates in Bergen, plus the schools are terrible. So not only are you paying the highest taxes, you have to pay for private school too (if you have kids). The city government is famously corrupt, and the Englewood school system recently granted lifetime health insurance coverage to employees ensuring skyrocketing taxes for years to come. On the plus side, it's cosmopolitan, has some really great old houses and estates, a bunch of great restaurants, large & expanding downtown shopping area, a theater that gets name acts, and a very diverse population. I sold my house there last year, and currently renting.
Eng. Cliffs very low taxes, but you will more than make up for tax savings in house purchase price, plus you have the high school issue as mentioned earlier. Prices are ridiculous here.
Sounds like Phd is considering either buying now, or "investing" $300K in platinum.
There must be a 3rd option out there somewhere. :-)
As for town selection, check the schools:
http://education.state.nj.us/rc/rc05/menu/01.html
As a long-time Democratic party voter and supporter, I say this: The Democratic party leadership in Bergen County has got to go.
Anon 4:26: You're full of shit. Period. No way Loretta Weinberg said that. I've worked with her and even if she believes that--a dubious claim--she's not politically naive enough to say it. Leastwise to some nut who buttonholes her about concealed carry permits.
Forget Englewood or the cliffs,
just head on over to Fort Lee.
Much more diverse.
And try Palisades Park, one
town over from Ft.Lee, you will
save money on renting.
Wonderful fully diverse town.
Anon 5:15 pm said
"Anon 4:26: You're full of shit. Period. No way Loretta Weinberg said that. I've worked with her and even if she believes that--a dubious claim--she's not politically naive enough to say it. Leastwise to some nut who buttonholes her about concealed carry permits."
Call her. Wager anyone?
Loretta's busy.
No calls please.
ps; the truth hurts.
By the way I'm the same "nut" that people like you will be hiding behind if the SH%$ ever hits the fan.
Bob Torricelli lived in Leftywood I mean Englewood until 2002...birds of a feather...
Wasn't his nickname torch?
To help jog Loretta the confirmed Socialist in Dem's clothing...without divulging my identity to people on this board, specifically i am the person who would walk from my office in Englewood up the East Hill to my home afterdark wearing a Gold Rolex, I'll ad she also suggested my rethinking wearing expensive jewelry.
And insisted NJ not be a "shall Issue" State, since the sob that would rob me is "really a victim of Society" and if I ever were to find myself in that situation to give em "whatever they ask"
"School is not a big concern for me. No kids."
If you're buying real estate, schools should be a concern if you plan to sell at some point.
Near universally, good schools = good towns.
Buying a house in a town with bad schools, is on par with buying on a busy street. You may not mind, but someone else will when you sell, and the result is lower resale value.
PhD Englewood - East Hill Large Homes, large property, large taxes, corrupt leftist Dem controlled Gov't (not the School budget, a friend of ours beat em on that in the 00 election, the people now elect school board members)
Englewood Cliffs - small splits and ranches or mcmansions on small lots, low property taxes, Dem Gov't with integrity.
google loretta weinberg socialist.
NJ you can't give enough.
Anon 5:35pm said "Loretta's busy."
I'll bet she is.
Dwight Engle. Great School.
Really wonderful for the kids.
Could not do better.
Diverse.
Danth Report available to the pubic; said in their first report to the powers that be in Englewood that the 99 cent store is bad for Englewood. In their second report they said the McDonalds is bad for Englewood also Sugar Hill Studios per Englewoods 'Master plan'
All three burnt to the ground.
Anonymous said...
"Dwight Engle. Great School.
Really wonderful for the kids.
Could not do better.
Diverse. "
7/18/2006 06:10:04 PM
Yuup you really get to hone your boxing skills.
Let's see they have metal detectors,can you still get your
kid's handgun into class?
pHd you can rent a decent house for $3500 month
32k inventory. Wow.
But this is just a moderate adjustment,reflecting a normal
market.
Bergen County homes prices
always hold their value.
To much negative here.
Does the torch Blog. Someone
get a hold of him, He could
brief us on Englewood.
He's got contacts,
Anon 6:24pm Anonymous said...
"Bergen County homes prices
always hold their value."
Really?
Always, you just have to hold.
and maintain your piece.
Great schools, best paid teachers,
and staff.
Great Police, the best Fire protection, Schools have best
graduation records, and all
students go on to college.
Bergen County one of the richest
in the country.
But you have to make a buck to live here.
Having fun renting?
http://mortgagenewsdaily.com/7142006_Real_Estate_Tax_Deduction.asp
In 2003, 35 million taxpayers used the home mortgage deduction, deducting an average of $9,650 for each filer and 39 million taxpayers took the real estate tax deduction with an average of more than $3,000 per filer. These are the most widely used deductions under the federal tax code.
Uh, why all the talk about Englewood Cliffs and Bergen County in a thread about home builders' confidence dropping? What am I missing?
Reinvestor..I really did miss ya!
Hehehe..only a male would ever think a woman would lie about being 5' tall!
For anyone interested in int'l economic housing analysis:
http://tinyurl.com/ansnj
I didn't read each page, but it looks like there may be a couple of talking points in there.
anon 7:26pm You have not done the math.
1. mortgage interest is an expense. (50 cents from every dollar, might be a write-off, the other 50 cents is gone)
2. property tax is an expense. 100% gone.
3. maintenance is an expense. 100% gone.
Rent is an expense 100% gone.
If you buy a home it is critical, not to overpay.
Those who have money understand this. It hasn't been a good time to be on the buy side in many years.
"I don't think I need to take the school system into account when I rent, do I?"
My mistake. If you're renting and don't have kids, then schools don't matter.
However, you may consider renting in a town with good schools where you'll likely buy later to 'test drive' that town before making a commitment to buy there.
Prices fell in Bergen all the same during the last bust. You are fooling yourself if you think an area is isolated because of some "special" reason. Nothing more than wishful thinking.
grim
In bergen county people will
just pull their property .
Why because their's money.
Not like many other parts of NJ.
We have the highest paid teachers,
police, etc. They can keep it going.
Does anybody else out there think the stuff that goes on in this blog is, well..
like a bunch of crazy *ss relatives getting together?
We have the Queens whiner, obsessed with jeans, who absolutely refuses to reduce his cc debt.
We have paranoid Pat, forever looking over her shoulder, adrift in a sea of male feifdoms.
We have Reinvestor..looking like Mike Meyers in a Sprockets skit, "That has disturbed me to the point of insanity. There. I am insane now."
We have Uncle Bob..no explanation needed.
Of course, we have the "sane" ones..I think.
property taxes ARE deductible, whos the idiot now? my mortgage payment doesn't increase every year, does your rent? YUP YUP. Every penny you pay to rent is GONE and you live in a little 800sq foot box that the last people let their dog piss on. lol
Little Ferry has some wonderful
rentals. Good bargin, you can
even shop for your car right their
on rt.46. Great selection. Instant
financing.
Easy commute.
"Anonymous said...
property taxes ARE deductible, whos the idiot now? my mortgage payment doesn't increase every year, does your rent? YUP YUP. Every penny you pay to rent is GONE and you live in a little 800sq foot box that the last people let their dog piss on. lol "
7/18/2006 10:39:23 PM
Midget; Like I have posted on here before I sold 2 houses and a small commercial building. Sqft 5500 in Englewood East Hill
Florida 4500 sqft, never thought about it until now thats 10,000 sq ft of house in 2 different locales; best part Fl house paid cash...yes I wrote a check, little person, the Nj house I owed less than 20% of the value when I punted. I rent now, little person.
ps: the houses were less than 10% of my real net worth.
Richard said...
"anon 10:39, you aren't gettin it."
Richard he got it, he's a little person. I hope the dopy sob was a buyer anytime in the last 4 - 5 years.
Richard,
Personally, I think your a liar. But hey nothing wrong with that - our President is a liar too. Hopefully you can crack open one of your little windows in your apartment and get some air with this heatwave. I left my central AIR on all day :-) Hey.. do you take your laundry in garbage bags down to the coin-op? I just throw mine in my washer/dryer.
Cheers to the renters!
Oh yeah. The FED spoke today regarding inflation and interest rates and it appears as though the rate hikes are coming to an end. I wonder what this website will try to come up with next to scare people into not buying since interest rates won't be going up. HMM!
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