Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Home Builders' Confidence Lowest Since 1991

From Marketwatch:

Home builders index falls to 15-year low

Home builders' confidence plunged to a 15-year low in July, reflecting growing worries about rising interest rates and declining affordability, the National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index fell three more points to 39 in July, the lowest since December 1991. A reading of 50 would mean sentiment is balanced equally among builders who think the market is good and those who think it's poor.

The index peaked at 72 last June and has fallen in 11 months since then. It's the fastest decline in the 21-year history of the index, which has had a fairly good record of predicting the number of new homes started.

From the NAHB:

Builder Confidence Slips Again In July

Increased concerns about interest rates and housing affordability caused builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes to slip three more notches to 39, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for July, reported today.

“The HMI is down from its most recent cyclical high of 72 in June of last year, and reflects growing builder uncertainly on the heels of reduced sales and increased cancellations related to eroding affordability as well as an ongoing withdrawal of investors/speculators from the marketplace,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders.
...
All three component indexes fell in July. The largest decline was in the index gauging sales expectations for the next six months, which fell five points to 46. The index gauging current sales of new single-family homes fell four points to 43 and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell two points to 27.

Builders in the West region, who have been the most optimistic in the HMI for some time, recorded the biggest dip in confidence this time around, with a nine-point decline to 51. Builders in the Northeast posted a five-point decline to 36, and builders in the Midwest posted a four-point decline to 21. The HMI for the large South region edged up two points to 50, although this measure still is down considerably from a cyclical high of 77 in June of last year.

78 Comments:

Blogger skep-tic said...

watch as the homebuilders pull the rug out from existing home sales.

existing homesellers too dumb/slow to compete with merciless price cuts the builders need to keep their creditors at bay

7/18/2006 01:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kearny,, McMansion?

Nice town, great place to raise
a family.

7/18/2006 01:20:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

'Suspicious' Kearny fire
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
By JACK HERMAN
JOURNAL STAFF WRITER

KEARNY - Fire officials are investigating the cause of a suspicious blaze sparked Saturday night at a "McMansion" under construction on Davis Avenue, Kearny Fire Chief Joe Lapsanski said.

The fire started just before 9 p.m. at the construction site, which consisted only of frames, studs and a foundation, Lapsanski said.

"There was no source for the fire to start," the chief said. "There was no electricity, no gas to the building."

The intense blaze had flames shooting 150 feet in the air, Lapsanski said, and the heat shattered windows on nearby buildings and melted aluminum siding on houses 250 feet away.

Kearny firefighters, with the help of Harrison, Jersey City and North Arlington fire departments, were able to get the blaze under control within an hour, Lapsanski said. Only the foundation remained of the building, he said.

Their quick efforts prevented the fire from spreading to the nearby Our Lady of Sorrows Church, Lapsanski said.

One firefighter was injured and treated for an injury after hitting his head while passing a ladder, Lapsanski said.

Jersey City Arson Investigators, state fire marshals and officials from the federal Department of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms were all investigating, Lapsanski said.

7/18/2006 01:32:00 PM  
Blogger njresident286 said...

NYTIMES fires 250 workers in Edison and closes down a plant

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13916729/

7/18/2006 01:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

MISERY INDEX GROWING

BOOOOOOOOOOYYYYYYAAAAAAAAA

Bob

7/18/2006 02:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Bob..OTS, but have you been heading to the shore lately (namely, Sandy Hook?)

http://tinyurl.com/jedup

Humor is healing, no?

Pat

7/18/2006 02:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

grim said...
'Suspicious' Kearny fire
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
By JACK HERMAN
JOURNAL STAFF WRITER


Since 2002 there have been quite a few fires in the Englewood and Englewood Cliffs area. I guess if a bunch of your neighbors are knocking down and putting up new, people figure why not have the insurance pick up the tab. Stiff jail sentences is needed.

7/18/2006 02:14:00 PM  
Blogger Flop that house said...

Englewood and Englewood cliffs are area I am considering buying a house from. Can anybody chime in on the makeup of the neighborhood?
Any information is greatly appreicated.

-newcomer to the area

7/18/2006 02:28:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

PhD I sold a house in the area and plan on renting for 2 more years. Your monthly outlay will be 1/2 what you would pay using a traditional mortgage. Englewood's property revaluations go into effect Jan 07' Ugly is not a strong enough word. Cliffs the asking prices and builder spec homes are ground zero for the "housing bubble"

7/18/2006 02:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ps: old timers from the area recall the 88 boom times, Englewood downtown shops bustling etc. by 94 it was a ghost town.

7/18/2006 02:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Englewood cliffs,,

wonderful community, low taxes.

great commute.

7/18/2006 02:44:00 PM  
Blogger Flop that house said...

I saw very big difference in the makeup of the neighborhood east side of the railroad track and those in the west side of it (and the house price too) can anybody comment on it?

7/18/2006 02:50:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon Phd

Englewood by a great majority Lefty's (Dem's in Socialist's clothing) on both sides of the city.

Englewood Cliffs mostly real Dem's and rightys.

7/18/2006 02:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bob Torricelli lived in Leftywood I mean Englewood until 2002...birds of a feather...

7/18/2006 02:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
"Englewood cliffs,,

wonderful community, low taxes.

great commute."

7/18/2006 03:44:51 PM

All of it means nothing if you pay $1.1m (median sale in 05') for a run down ranch, which is really worth maybe $650,000...only worth the 650# because of the great community, low taxes, commute via car to NYC. They share Englewood's High School; unless your kid is gonna be a rapper or a gang banger...factor in annual per child private High School tuition of $10k to $28k depending upon where.

7/18/2006 03:00:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There are numerous brand new "cheat em and how" pretty looking, cheap materials, builder houses; for sale ranging from $3 and $4 million, listed for over a year now.

7/18/2006 03:04:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

on the west side make sure you carry a handgun.

7/18/2006 03:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Do you think the average Joe or Betty Realtor@ know that home builders' confidence is the lowest since 1991?

Is this on their radar as personally impacting them?

Pat

7/18/2006 03:15:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
"on the west side make sure you carry a handgun."

7/18/2006 04:07:00 PM

Quiet down folks,State Senator (thanks to Corzine) Loretta Weinberg would not approve. I had a conversation with her when my office was in Leftywood about my right to carry infringed in NJ etc. she said NO way in NJ, the pos that would try to rob me "is really a victim of society and give em whatever they ask"

7/18/2006 03:26:00 PM  
Blogger Flop that house said...

I have seen listing of some new condo construction that is right next to the golf course in Englewood. I was going to check it out. Does anybody know the location or that condo in particular?

7/18/2006 03:50:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

5 story's of all wood, no steel anywhere, possibility of becoming Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz, when a hurricane hits...and it will.

7/18/2006 03:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ken Albert the Englewood city engineer approved that one wink wink, in concert with the former Mayor Paul Fader (McSceevey's top hwy guy) Fader's brother is a RE developer, my oh my, how the water in the toilet goes round and round.

7/18/2006 03:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

phD Why would you buy now?

7/18/2006 04:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Englewood has location, location, location but also has taxes,taxes,taxes. It has some of the highest tax rates in Bergen, plus the schools are terrible. So not only are you paying the highest taxes, you have to pay for private school too (if you have kids). The city government is famously corrupt, and the Englewood school system recently granted lifetime health insurance coverage to employees ensuring skyrocketing taxes for years to come. On the plus side, it's cosmopolitan, has some really great old houses and estates, a bunch of great restaurants, large & expanding downtown shopping area, a theater that gets name acts, and a very diverse population. I sold my house there last year, and currently renting.

Eng. Cliffs very low taxes, but you will more than make up for tax savings in house purchase price, plus you have the high school issue as mentioned earlier. Prices are ridiculous here.

7/18/2006 04:11:00 PM  
Blogger Flop that house said...

anon 7:32

just checking out different areas and neighborhoods. I am really new to the area and new to real estate. Therefore, I am going to open houses just so I know what is the "peak" prices and guestimate what might be a good time to dive in...after finally convincing my wife not to buy now

7/18/2006 04:12:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Sounds like Phd is considering either buying now, or "investing" $300K in platinum.

There must be a 3rd option out there somewhere. :-)

As for town selection, check the schools:

http://education.state.nj.us/rc/rc05/menu/01.html

7/18/2006 04:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

As a long-time Democratic party voter and supporter, I say this: The Democratic party leadership in Bergen County has got to go.

Anon 4:26: You're full of shit. Period. No way Loretta Weinberg said that. I've worked with her and even if she believes that--a dubious claim--she's not politically naive enough to say it. Leastwise to some nut who buttonholes her about concealed carry permits.

7/18/2006 04:15:00 PM  
Blogger Flop that house said...

anon 7:11

Are you still renting in Englewood? I have been looking to rent in the near future. What are the going rate in Englewood? what might be other comparable areas nearby?

7/18/2006 04:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Forget Englewood or the cliffs,
just head on over to Fort Lee.

Much more diverse.

7/18/2006 04:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And try Palisades Park, one
town over from Ft.Lee, you will
save money on renting.

Wonderful fully diverse town.

7/18/2006 04:28:00 PM  
Blogger Space Ghost said...

Acaedemies @englewood, for which englewood and englewood cliffs students get preference, is a magnet high school that is one of the best in the state.

7/18/2006 04:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 5:15 pm said
"Anon 4:26: You're full of shit. Period. No way Loretta Weinberg said that. I've worked with her and even if she believes that--a dubious claim--she's not politically naive enough to say it. Leastwise to some nut who buttonholes her about concealed carry permits."


Call her. Wager anyone?

7/18/2006 04:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Loretta's busy.

No calls please.

7/18/2006 04:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ps; the truth hurts.
By the way I'm the same "nut" that people like you will be hiding behind if the SH%$ ever hits the fan.

7/18/2006 04:35:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Bob Torricelli lived in Leftywood I mean Englewood until 2002...birds of a feather...

Wasn't his nickname torch?

7/18/2006 04:36:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To help jog Loretta the confirmed Socialist in Dem's clothing...without divulging my identity to people on this board, specifically i am the person who would walk from my office in Englewood up the East Hill to my home afterdark wearing a Gold Rolex, I'll ad she also suggested my rethinking wearing expensive jewelry.
And insisted NJ not be a "shall Issue" State, since the sob that would rob me is "really a victim of Society" and if I ever were to find myself in that situation to give em "whatever they ask"

7/18/2006 04:39:00 PM  
Blogger Flop that house said...

School is not a big concern for me. No kids.

:P

7/18/2006 04:44:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"School is not a big concern for me. No kids."


If you're buying real estate, schools should be a concern if you plan to sell at some point.

Near universally, good schools = good towns.

Buying a house in a town with bad schools, is on par with buying on a busy street. You may not mind, but someone else will when you sell, and the result is lower resale value.

7/18/2006 04:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

PhD Englewood - East Hill Large Homes, large property, large taxes, corrupt leftist Dem controlled Gov't (not the School budget, a friend of ours beat em on that in the 00 election, the people now elect school board members)
Englewood Cliffs - small splits and ranches or mcmansions on small lots, low property taxes, Dem Gov't with integrity.

7/18/2006 04:57:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

it's official. MLS has moved past 32,000. even in the dog days of summer inventory is creeping up.

7/18/2006 05:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

google loretta weinberg socialist.

NJ you can't give enough.

7/18/2006 05:04:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 5:35pm said "Loretta's busy."


I'll bet she is.

7/18/2006 05:07:00 PM  
Blogger Flop that house said...

unrealtor,

I don't think I need to take the school system into account when I rent, do I?

Maybe it will be an advantage for me, I can rent it places where there might be less than perfect school system.
Any suggestions?

7/18/2006 05:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dwight Engle. Great School.

Really wonderful for the kids.

Could not do better.

Diverse.

7/18/2006 05:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Danth Report available to the pubic; said in their first report to the powers that be in Englewood that the 99 cent store is bad for Englewood. In their second report they said the McDonalds is bad for Englewood also Sugar Hill Studios per Englewoods 'Master plan'
All three burnt to the ground.

7/18/2006 05:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
"Dwight Engle. Great School.

Really wonderful for the kids.

Could not do better.

Diverse. "

7/18/2006 06:10:04 PM


Yuup you really get to hone your boxing skills.

7/18/2006 05:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let's see they have metal detectors,can you still get your
kid's handgun into class?

7/18/2006 05:18:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

pHd you can rent a decent house for $3500 month

7/18/2006 05:20:00 PM  
Blogger Space Ghost said...

No, the school system is largely irrelevant when you rent unless you have kids.

I would suggest Fort Lee over Englewood though.

7/18/2006 05:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

32k inventory. Wow.


But this is just a moderate adjustment,reflecting a normal
market.

7/18/2006 05:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bergen County homes prices
always hold their value.

To much negative here.

7/18/2006 05:24:00 PM  
Blogger Flop that house said...

How about river edge?
Any comment on that area is greatly appreciated

7/18/2006 05:24:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

Anonymous said...
reinvestor101:

Missed ya!

Pat


Ha! You only missed assaulting my posts and trying to twist my words in your mad rush to forment ill will towards homeowners and investors. I've not forgotten your distinction as being worst than even Booya Bob. You deceptively claim to be a five foot little lady, but I don't trust you at all.

Watch your step lady. I've got my eye on you.

7/18/2006 05:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Does the torch Blog. Someone
get a hold of him, He could
brief us on Englewood.

He's got contacts,

7/18/2006 05:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 6:24pm Anonymous said...
"Bergen County homes prices
always hold their value."


Really?

7/18/2006 05:40:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Always, you just have to hold.
and maintain your piece.

Great schools, best paid teachers,
and staff.

Great Police, the best Fire protection, Schools have best
graduation records, and all
students go on to college.

Bergen County one of the richest
in the country.

But you have to make a buck to live here.

7/18/2006 05:53:00 PM  
Blogger Space Ghost said...

Bergen County is not even the richest county in NJ. Morris and Somerset County are typically NJ's richest counties (with one or the other being in the lead). ll

7/18/2006 06:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Having fun renting?
http://mortgagenewsdaily.com/7142006_Real_Estate_Tax_Deduction.asp

In 2003, 35 million taxpayers used the home mortgage deduction, deducting an average of $9,650 for each filer and 39 million taxpayers took the real estate tax deduction with an average of more than $3,000 per filer. These are the most widely used deductions under the federal tax code.

7/18/2006 06:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Uh, why all the talk about Englewood Cliffs and Bergen County in a thread about home builders' confidence dropping? What am I missing?

7/18/2006 06:42:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

anon 7:26, you have to look at the net cost per month when comparing renting versus buying. if it costs you $1000 less a month to rent than buy even with the tax deductions, why would you buy? maybe if you're an idiot.

7/18/2006 06:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Pat said...

Reinvestor..I really did miss ya!

Hehehe..only a male would ever think a woman would lie about being 5' tall!

For anyone interested in int'l economic housing analysis:

http://tinyurl.com/ansnj

I didn't read each page, but it looks like there may be a couple of talking points in there.

7/18/2006 06:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon 7:26pm You have not done the math.

1. mortgage interest is an expense. (50 cents from every dollar, might be a write-off, the other 50 cents is gone)
2. property tax is an expense. 100% gone.
3. maintenance is an expense. 100% gone.

Rent is an expense 100% gone.

If you buy a home it is critical, not to overpay.
Those who have money understand this. It hasn't been a good time to be on the buy side in many years.

7/18/2006 07:22:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"I don't think I need to take the school system into account when I rent, do I?"


My mistake. If you're renting and don't have kids, then schools don't matter.

However, you may consider renting in a town with good schools where you'll likely buy later to 'test drive' that town before making a commitment to buy there.

7/18/2006 07:52:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Prices fell in Bergen all the same during the last bust. You are fooling yourself if you think an area is isolated because of some "special" reason. Nothing more than wishful thinking.

grim

7/18/2006 08:19:00 PM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

1. I live in north east Bergen county. The price has been falling, though not as much as it should.

It seems like people have been pulling their houses from market as houses are not moving at all.

2. Englewood vs. Englewood Cliff.

Since I have kids, I wouldn't consider any of these places.

Some part of Englewood is very nice and it's getting much nicer as orthodox Jewish population has been moving in as Teaneck orthodox area is getting real full.

Would I buy a house in Englewood? no.

Would I buy a house in Englewood Cliff? maybe once my kids are in college or they go to boarding schools.

3. What's with Pat and ReInvestor? Love Hate relationship? :)

7/18/2006 08:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

In bergen county people will
just pull their property .

Why because their's money.

Not like many other parts of NJ.

We have the highest paid teachers,
police, etc. They can keep it going.

7/18/2006 08:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Does anybody else out there think the stuff that goes on in this blog is, well..

like a bunch of crazy *ss relatives getting together?

We have the Queens whiner, obsessed with jeans, who absolutely refuses to reduce his cc debt.

We have paranoid Pat, forever looking over her shoulder, adrift in a sea of male feifdoms.

We have Reinvestor..looking like Mike Meyers in a Sprockets skit, "That has disturbed me to the point of insanity. There. I am insane now."

We have Uncle Bob..no explanation needed.

Of course, we have the "sane" ones..I think.

7/18/2006 09:05:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

property taxes ARE deductible, whos the idiot now? my mortgage payment doesn't increase every year, does your rent? YUP YUP. Every penny you pay to rent is GONE and you live in a little 800sq foot box that the last people let their dog piss on. lol

7/18/2006 09:39:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

anon 10:39, you aren't gettin it. increases in property taxes and maintenance fees (if you're in a condo/co-op) more than match the typical annual rent increases (low single digit %). where you make out in being an owner over time is if your property stays equal to or ahead of inflation erosion AND you get deeper into the loan cycle where principal gets paid off in ever larger chunks.

unfortunately for today's potential buyers asking prices are so high and now unstable that if you overpaid even $20k for a property it will take 3+ years to pay off that amount of equity. once again it's when you get deep into a fixed rate loan that buying gets ever more attractive then renting.

so with that said, no reason people shouldn't wait 12-36 months and see how thing shakes out. what have you got to lose when you pay off almost no principal the first couple of years and the equivalent cost of renting versus buying a similar property are so disparate?

7/18/2006 09:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Little Ferry has some wonderful
rentals. Good bargin, you can
even shop for your car right their
on rt.46. Great selection. Instant
financing.

Easy commute.

7/18/2006 09:49:00 PM  
Blogger InvestorDavid said...

Isn't Little Ferry always under the threat of Flooding like tonight?


anon at 10:05, you are categorically correct. Too Funny. :)

7/18/2006 09:54:00 PM  
Blogger Richie said...

Little Ferry.

The only reason I know that town is because they have World Video, and the love to advertise on late night cable channels.

Love it.

7/18/2006 09:58:00 PM  
Blogger Space Ghost said...

Am I the only one who detests Route 46 (at least until it merges with Route 3) ? What an eyesore.

7/18/2006 10:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...
property taxes ARE deductible, whos the idiot now? my mortgage payment doesn't increase every year, does your rent? YUP YUP. Every penny you pay to rent is GONE and you live in a little 800sq foot box that the last people let their dog piss on. lol "
7/18/2006 10:39:23 PM

Midget; Like I have posted on here before I sold 2 houses and a small commercial building. Sqft 5500 in Englewood East Hill
Florida 4500 sqft, never thought about it until now thats 10,000 sq ft of house in 2 different locales; best part Fl house paid cash...yes I wrote a check, little person, the Nj house I owed less than 20% of the value when I punted. I rent now, little person.
ps: the houses were less than 10% of my real net worth.

7/19/2006 01:54:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Richard said...
"anon 10:39, you aren't gettin it."


Richard he got it, he's a little person. I hope the dopy sob was a buyer anytime in the last 4 - 5 years.

7/19/2006 01:58:00 AM  
Blogger delford said...

phd: River Edge is getting slaughtered by taxes,little capes and ranches 8k to 10k year.

The moronic voters just this past Sept, approved a referendum to do massive additions to the elementary schools, under the mistaken belief encouraged by the BOE, that the state will give the town some money to go towards it. Well the state promised, but they are under no obligation to give that money, and the money promised is only about 15% of the total cost.

And we all know of course the delightful state of affairs with our NJ budget, so the money in my opinion will not be coming.

Once built this massive new structure is built, they will have to hire many new teachers, teachers aides, custodian staff, heating electric etc. Only now is this staring to dawn on people. The people advocating caution were accused of being ant-education.

All of this funding will come from the home owners, as the town has almost no rateables away from residences. Any body fro taxes of 12k or more on a 50 year old cape?

If I were you I would consider the Montvale, Park Ridge, or Rivervale, or Wyckoff/ALlendale.

7/19/2006 09:00:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Richard,
Personally, I think your a liar. But hey nothing wrong with that - our President is a liar too. Hopefully you can crack open one of your little windows in your apartment and get some air with this heatwave. I left my central AIR on all day :-) Hey.. do you take your laundry in garbage bags down to the coin-op? I just throw mine in my washer/dryer.

Cheers to the renters!

Oh yeah. The FED spoke today regarding inflation and interest rates and it appears as though the rate hikes are coming to an end. I wonder what this website will try to come up with next to scare people into not buying since interest rates won't be going up. HMM!

7/19/2006 05:28:00 PM  
Blogger delford said...

Hey Anom: People have been assuming that rate hikes have been ending sicne last June, the old we are in teh 8th inning.

But since you are uninformed, and unread, no surprise there.

Oh we ar not scaring anybody, we are trying to educate those who migh not now, and share information with each other. We have to, in order to protect the uninformd from people like you.

7/20/2006 08:29:00 AM  

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