Tuesday, July 04, 2006

Independence Day Open Discussion

Observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing bubble, Open House reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let's have them.

For readers that have never commented, there is a small link on the bottom of each new message that reads "# Comments". Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn't know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone. For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past 6 months. The archives can be found at the bottom of the right hand menu and are categorized by month.

As always, anything goes!

86 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Another good bit off the wire:

"Prospects of the dollar as oil currency"

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20060627/50549408.html

If Iran opens up exchange, we have bigger problems than falling house prices.

IMHO,

SAS

7/04/2006 06:38:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=au_ji2PJ.w1U&refer=us

Fed can't control price of crude.

And I believe the Fed still has to raise rates in Aug to keep the foreign investment money coming into the country.

SAS

7/04/2006 07:08:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thank you to all the volunteers out there, and veterans.

Thank you to every 21 year old man and woman, sweating somewhere -maybe in fear - in Iraq and Afghanistan.

If today is your birthday, you could be here having a cold beer and goofing off with fireworks, but you're not. Thank you.

Pat

7/04/2006 08:13:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's a war we should not be fighting.

Busch, and his rummy friends
making money on oil.

7/04/2006 09:04:00 AM  
Anonymous applications credit card fraud said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

7/04/2006 09:17:00 AM  
Blogger Richie said...

It's all for capitalism.

The US is not as self sufficient as it once was. We need to rely on external sources for manufacturing, oil, etc.

-Richie

7/04/2006 09:34:00 AM  
Blogger X-Underwriter said...

Anonymous said...
It's a war we should not be fighting.

Whether you agree with the war or not, we still need to pay respects today to our friends and brothers out there in the desert sacrificing, doing a mission for this great country

7/04/2006 09:45:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How come I am not seeing price reductions? I am looking for a 3br townhouse in Mahwah. I saw one yesterday asking for $459K mls #2610438. Then I saw another on for $499 mls #2625089.

7/04/2006 09:51:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Aksing means NOOOOTTING!

Just take 25-30% off the top tand make a bid.
If the greedy money grubbing in dneial sellers are "Insulted" tell'em you are insulted that 2-3 bdrm $@!# boxes are being listed for $500,000.
One crackerbox asking $500,000 2 bdrms sitting on market for 6 months.
Offer them $275k. That's all a %$#@! box is worth!

7/04/2006 10:01:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am in favor of bringing the troops home immediately with full educational benefits, etc. That said, pious 4th of July cliches notwithstanding, there is no bigger sucker than a soldier. Ask Bush.

7/04/2006 10:09:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I salute all fellow vets (POW, MIA)and deceased ones as well.

People been making funny money off oil has been going on long before Bush. Keep that in mimd, next time one fills up there gas guzzling SUV and when one snickers at the poor sap actually riding their bike to work, or your stuck in traffic on the NJTP.

I don't care what one stance is on war, this country needs to get off its addiction to oil (and easy credit addiction..ala ..RE bubble).

Then again, I have been hearing that battlecry ever since the embargo and those middle east countrys realized then, that they have us by the short and curlys. Since that point, we have been kissing the camels rear.

If Olmert steps things up, which it is looking that way, history could repeat itself once again.

Whats this have to do with NJ RE bubble? Alot. If petro hits $10/gal, you think those joes can keep RE afloat? You think you can keep afloat at that clip?

Understand the times, educate yourself, follow the money, know whats working, learn how to prosper by whatever is thrown at you.

This is a good link to refresh memories.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_embargo_crisis

I remember fist fights in the gas lines during this period. Odd and even licesnse plate numbers. Some here will know what I am talking about...

Grim, you remember the days when an ounce of gold bought the Dow??

Yee, those days were alot of fun.

Happy 4th all.
Vietnam 1957–1975.
(gone, but no way forgotten)

SAS
(USMC 66-70)

7/04/2006 10:11:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Some NYC Housing News, from the NY Post:

'HOME WORK' SOARS IN CITY
HOUSING CONSTRUCTION RISES FIVEFOLD SINCE '95

The Big Apple's residential building boom is reaching historic proportions, with developers last year planning five times more private housing units citywide than a decade ago.

The city issued building permits for 31,599 new residential units - up 25 percent from 2004, 87 percent from 2001 and 515 percent from the paltry 5,135 units constructed in 1995, a Post analysis of census data found.
...
The New York Building Congress, a trade organization, estimates that another 30,000 new housing units will be built in the city each year from 2006 through 2008. Census data examined for the first three months of this year supports the group's claim.
...
Brooklyn led all boroughs last year in residential development. There were permits filed for 9,028 new housing units in Brooklyn. Manhattan was second with 8,493 units followed by Queens (7,269), The Bronx (4,937) and Staten Island (1,872).

7/04/2006 10:18:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Aksing means NOOOOTTING!

Just take 25-30% off the top tand make a bid.
If the greedy money grubbing in dneial sellers are "Insulted" tell'em you are insulted that 2-3 bdrm $@!# boxes are being listed for $500,000.
One crackerbox asking $500,000 2 bdrms sitting on market for 6 months.
Offer them $275k. That's all a %$#@! box is worth!

7/04/2006 11:01:34 AM

Will the realtor actually take my bid or not? Are they legally supposed to show all bids?

7/04/2006 10:32:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

From Craigslist:

$365000 - **REDUCED over 70k!...I know mkt is soft & am willing...

to work with you...yes, I know the market is soft now and that is why I have reduced price by 70K (should have taken the offer I got in May, but greed can sneak up on you when you least expect it. At the time my realtor said there was no bubble and to hold out for a full price offer). Anyways, now I just need to unload this...not making any money off this deal and need to get out of my arm. I just can't afford the adjusted payments, can't qualify to refi and want to avoid foreclosue. Yes...the same story as everyone out there I am just honest enough to tell it like it is...

Home is updated and clean with 3 bd 2 ba and large lot I put over 35K materials only into updates. (no...not subdividable - I already checked with the city) Will gladly e-mail pics and more info.

Realtors...save your time...not enough equity to use one. By the way ...I guess there really was a bubble after all :)

7/04/2006 10:58:00 AM  
Blogger Sharmin said...

I have made an interesting observation. RE agents (mostly crooks) are advising people NOT to list their homes at present time. They think the market is saturated with listings and there is no point in making the situation worst. This is unlike last 3-5 years when every RE agent wanted to list your house. I think they want to create another artificial shortage to bring this market out of huge inventory increase. These idiots should advise their clients to dropt eh price rater than use shortage perception tool.

7/04/2006 11:04:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Maybe KL or Rox can chime in on that. I asked a handful of agents the same question and was told, flat out, no. If they turned down a listing, the seller would just go elsewhere. No harm done if the property sits because the seller is stubborn..

grim

7/04/2006 11:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

for the sellers of homes today..as Jay and Silent Bob said, "this really licks balls" to be in this situation. Don't let the realtors guide you into "not" listing, unless you want to list lower later when a full blown recession is in effect.
--BM

7/04/2006 11:34:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How many people will actually be able to afford ANY of this new housing going up in NYC??

Can someone making $75,000 a year or less afford to live ANYWHERE in the 5 boros, Long Island, or NJ other than a horrible neighborhood in a tenement from 1910??

Who is able to spend $2,000 a month for a one bedroom in Astoria, or $2,500 to live in Bayside??

Check out Northern Queens, the newest home of the six figure corporate yuppies who are paying Park Slope prices for Jackson Heights & Elmhurst along with the 15% brokers fee.

7/04/2006 11:47:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

X Underwriter said "this great country"

And I add with the exception of the following Socialists regimes reigning terror within America: California, Taxachussets, New York, New Jersy and Wash DC.

7/04/2006 11:48:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jersey

7/04/2006 11:48:00 AM  
Blogger wfmukerm said...

um, this is not veterans day nor is it memorial day. it should be a day for honoring ideals and the original thinkers who articulated, recorded and attempted to establish a society based on those ideals.

Make no mistake those 'fathers' essentially represented landowners and a wealthy class who wanted to manage themselves instead of answering to "Trenton"

why is it that 'patriotic or nationalistc' spiel is never cited as turning a conversation "political"? (not just here but in general; if someone questions a 'patriotic' statement then THEY are the political rabblerouser.

...as the art of dialogue is 300yrs old, I guess we have no use for it anymore.

enjoy the liberty to force your views on people!

7/04/2006 11:50:00 AM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

Another good bit off the wire:

"Prospects of the dollar as oil currency"

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20060627/50549408.html

If Iran opens up exchange, we have bigger problems than falling house prices.


I was involved in a discussion where I pointed this out a couple of weeks ago. I believe Iran, Russia and Venezula are involved in an intrigue to cut out the US Dollar by setting up an alternative currency and trading system.

We can't allow them to do that. They have to be stopped.

7/04/2006 11:56:00 AM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

why is it that 'patriotic or nationalistc' spiel is never cited as turning a conversation "political"? (not just here but in general; if someone questions a 'patriotic' statement then THEY are the political rabblerouser.

They're considered a rabbblerouser because that's often true.

Tell you what, if the unpatriotic complainers don't like the country, they can let the door hit them where the good lord split them.

7/04/2006 12:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Price reductions: I myself own a house and while pondering the wisdom of trying to upgrade to a better one in this Southern California market I came up with WHY prices are not falling faster.

The current market is mostly incestuous! The only people who can afford housing are the ones who already have a house and can use the proceeds from its sale to finance a new one.

So, that factor is one thing keeping prices from falling.

7/04/2006 12:18:00 PM  
Blogger wfmukerm said...

reinvestor - thanks for proving my point

and I meant "the art of dialogue is 3000 yrs old", not 300

7/04/2006 12:18:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How much one can (or should) pay for the house/condo if he is making 120k and having about 100k available for downpayment in 2 years ?

I'm looking for the monthly payment (+taxes+CC) and the total mortgage.

According to the web calculators and I/O ARM scams there is no limit but I was curious what do you think is the practical limit (assuming you still need to put money aside for retirement). I don't care if the bank promises $1M loan since I know it is too much but is 500k too much et cetera.

7/04/2006 12:20:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

I was involved in a discussion where I pointed this out a couple of weeks ago. I believe Iran, Russia and Venezula are involved in an intrigue to cut out the US Dollar by setting up an alternative currency and trading system.

We can't allow them to do that. They have to be stopped.


Stopped how, precisely?

grim

7/04/2006 12:26:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Anon @ 1:20,

First question, would that $100k be your entire savings, or only the portion of it that you are comfortable putting down? Assuming you are left with a relatively comfortable cushion afterwards, here is my suggestion:

Max Purchase Price: $340,000
Down Payment: $100,000
Mortgage: $240,000 (2x annual income)

Assuming a 15y Fixed @ 7.0%, $6,500 Taxes & Misc leaves you with a monthly payment of roughly $2,700.

grim

7/04/2006 12:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

grim: thanks!

In 2 years I hope to have 100k for downpayment and still have "reasonable" emergency fund and small but growing retirement fund.

$2700/mo sounds quite low (my current rent is almost 3k) as I don't think there are any condos or houses available for $340k that I would be comfortable with. I see I need to move to Iowa or win in lottery.

The condo I'm renting now is available for $900k but it is a bit too small.

Depressing..Well, let's hope the housing bust reduces the prices by 40% but does not kill the economy.

Sven

7/04/2006 01:00:00 PM  
Blogger wfmukerm said...

grim:

Why do you suggest 15Y? Would that be the best balance between equity and interest?

pssst - this would be an interesting topic for the forum:

http://www.njrereport.com/forum/

7/04/2006 01:06:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

Stopped how, precisely?

We have various means at our disposal. We did support a coup against Chavez which didn't turn out as expected. We can certainly try this in Iran and if all else fails, we can pursue the Iraq option. Although he was villified for it, Pat Robertson's suggestion as to how to handle Chavez is something that may need to be looked at.

Saddam really started this alternative currency situation when he began settling oil sales in Euros. Fortunatately, we successfully stamped that fire out.

7/04/2006 01:18:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Spending 3k rent on a 120k income? My friend, I think you need to rethink comfortable. Granted, 3k rent on a 900k property is a steal, it's not a bargain for you. Only my opinion so don't get too upset at what I'm saying.

Even after a 30% drop, your current residence would be well out of your price range.

grim

7/04/2006 01:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

graim: Yes, I have been thinking about the pros and cons of my current situation (to be precise, my rent is only 2.8k) but my conclusion was that it is ok. I don't need a car here and the condo is in a great location in a full service building. My previous place was 2200 and it had roaches. Let's just say that my GF was not comfortable with it. Otherwise, we are not spending much.

Sven

7/04/2006 01:27:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Because paying interest is "throwing away money". :)

Mortgage Amt: $240,000

15Y Fixed @ 7%
Total Interest: ~$148,000
Total Repaid: ~$388,000

30Y Fixed @ 7.5%
Total Interest: ~$364,000
Total Repaid: ~$604,000

grim

7/04/2006 01:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey reinvestor101,

How are we going to stop the dollar from sliding? Are we going to stop it by bombing Venezuela and Russia? We hav a big DEFICIT. Our rights are being taken away, and we are producing less things of real value to the world. US fundamentals are deteriorating and playing the perceptions and geopolitics game will not fix that problem.

SAM

7/04/2006 01:40:00 PM  
Blogger patient homebuyer said...

at grim

that is a sobering bunch of numbers over 200k difference

7/04/2006 01:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have given up on buying or renting in this area. I am leaving this area and moving to near Austin TX when my lease is up in March 2007. Have lived in this place 11 years, and at $840 rent is a bargain. Other apartments in Flushing Queens start at $1,100 for studio & $1,500 for one bedroom.

Face it, the quality of life sucks unless you are single and making well in the six figures.

If you aren't making six figures, you struggle to make ends meet, constantly get hit with taxes, fees & fines, and watch how everyone else lives such a wonderful life.

I can't even afford a vacation unless I count taking a subway trip to Coney Island for the day.

Why spend $2,000 a month or more on rent for a tiny one bedroom in the 'other 4 boros' or in some part of Jersey City or another part of NJ where it will cost close to $3,000 a month between rent + utilities + commuting costs.

Corporate life also sucks in the average 50-70 hour position in Manhattan where life consists of working 12 hours a day and spending 1-2 hours commuting each way.

Oh yeah, you get the car service home. Nice that you can't have a life or interact with others.

7/04/2006 01:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

{{Spending 3k rent on a 120k income? My friend, I think you need to rethink comfortable. Granted, 3k rent on a 900k property is a steal, it's not a bargain for you. Only my opinion so don't get too upset at what I'm saying.}}

That is average for NYC. In Manhattan , this gets you a small one bedroom on the UES in the 80's or 90's well east of Third Avenue.

In Hudson county, you can't find anything near the waterfront for less than $4,500 a month rent.

7/04/2006 01:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

and we are producing less things of real value to the world.

Do you mean manufacturing? This is not true. US manufacturing output is increasing all the time and US is the biggest manufacturer in the world. People talk about China but in the real world US is far by the biggest and its share is increasing. Latest Economist has also an article about this.

This is a popular myth, though.

7/04/2006 02:00:00 PM  
Anonymous dreamtheaterr said...

Maybe he US bombed Iraq for reasons that may never be known publicly. Maybe Bush & cronies thought they will have a swift victory, which did not happen. And are paying the price now.

REInvestor101, arrogant thinking like yours is what is causing the US to skid row. All the billions being spent to fight 'terrorism' is futile when 90% of the world is pissed off with the US for whatever reason. Sorry to be blunt, but that's a fact. Take this perspective from an immigrant in the US with no biased love or hate.

And the countries enjoying economic growth are the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), while the US grows more insecure about their political and economic clout. So give it some thought atleast before thinking of attacking any country for whatever reason. 100,000+ innocent Iraqis killed for no reason should be mourned this 4th of July along with the 2000+ US killed in Iraq. While Bin Laden's happily masturbating in his cave somewhere browsing Playgirl magazine of Bush, Cheney and Rummy posing in it.

7/04/2006 02:01:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

Our rights are being taken away, and we are producing less things of real value to the world. US fundamentals are deteriorating and playing the perceptions and geopolitics game will not fix that problem

Stop moaning about your "rights". Your rights are intact. There are no goons hauling you off to jail in the middle of the night.

We have to do what we have to do engage the terrorists. There's nothing wrong with the US except that we need to get tougher against those who seek to undermine and harm us.

7/04/2006 02:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And the countries enjoying economic growth are the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China),

Actually, the BRIC stock market has crashed (e.g. India by 20-40%) in the last 2 months. We had Enron scandal, but the situation is much worse in BRIC countries.
I think Iraqi stock market had seen the biggest gains this year.

100,000+ innocent Iraqis killed for no reason

99% of those killed have been killed by the terrorists who do not want to allow the democracy to emerge in Iraq (BTW: Saddam killed as well..with WMDs). I don't want to see our troops there but we have no alternative. It is a choice between US supported democratic Iraqi government, Al-Qaida supported Sunni dictatorship or Shia led terrorist dictatorship. The only solution is to finish the job, train enough Iraqi troops and secure Bagdhad. Then troops can leave Iraq. Hopefully this happens in the next 2-3 years. Cut and run aka "Murtha redeployment" to Japan is a ridiculous idea. It would be faster to send the troops to Iraq from the US.

7/04/2006 02:17:00 PM  
Blogger REINVESTOR101 said...

REInvestor101, arrogant thinking like yours is what is causing the US to skid row. All the billions being spent to fight 'terrorism' is futile when 90% of the world is pissed off with the US for whatever reason. Sorry to be blunt, but that's a fact. Take this perspective from an immigrant in the US with no biased love or hate.

Arrogant thinking? Where would the world be without the US?

When someone's attacks this country, I could give a damn what everyone else thinks. We have to do whatever we have to do. Moreover, we're the preeminent economic and military power in the world, so why shouldn't we rule?

I make no apologies for America and us doing what we have to do.

7/04/2006 02:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon,

I guess you have not been to Shinzen, China recently. Or have not been to Ohio, Michigan, or any other of the rust belt states. If you have you may change your mind.

Tell that little bit to someone in Ohio, them is fighting words. Trust me.

Shinzen is outright scary.

SAS

7/04/2006 02:22:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

if any sellers are waiting for the spring market for a bigger buying pool they might be in for a sad ending. rates will be at least 75bps higher on the long end by then, and i'm being conservative. real estate is a chain. someone has to buy your place to move up. starter houses are unaffordable for first time buyers. how many folks out there are going to shell out $500k for a 2 bedroom condo next to the ghetto which is the cheapest you'll see within shooting distance of NYC?

affordability is starting to strain everyone's finances. late credit card payments are on the rise in the first quarter. let the hiked rates make their way through the rest of the economy. remember there's a lag, plus you have ARM resets happening big time the next 3 years.

NJ has high housing prices and high taxes on everything and they're only going up with the joke of a system currently installed. the long term prospects for being financially well off in this area erode daily.

7/04/2006 02:22:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

In Hudson county, you can't find anything near the waterfront for less than $4,500 a month rent.

Can you elaborate on this?

grim

7/04/2006 02:25:00 PM  
Blogger wfmukerm said...

Total Interest: ~$364,000
Total Repaid: ~$604,000


you know - in my original post I was going to add: "do you think 15yr are better because with a 30yr you end up paying 2 to 3x the 'selling price'?"

Is there a breakpoint where given a certain interest rate it makes sens to go 30YR?

Don't Shi'ra-compliant (muslim) mtg. brokers lend their clients the fully amortized amount? So an orthodox muslim looking at a $300K house would actually mortgage approx $700K.

7/04/2006 02:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I guess you have not been to Shinzen, China recently.

The truth is that US manufacturing output, productivity and exports are up and we are by far the biggest manufacturer in the world. Yes, there are many closed factories in many places but even more places where factories are expanding and companies are starting new manufacturing processes and business.

Latest Economist:
http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7119428

Our media act as if American manufacturing is going to grind to a halt at around two o'clock this afternoon,” says Cliff Ransom, an independent analyst who scours America for the most assiduous metal-bashers.
But someone forgot to tell American manufacturers the bad news. Most of them have enjoyed roaring success of late. Net profits have risen by nearly 9% a year since the recession in 2001 and productivity has been growing even more rapidly than is usual during economic expansions (see chart). The country's various widget-makers, moreover, show no sign of losing their innovative edge.
Even in the automotive industry, GM and Delphi are arguably the exceptions. America has hundreds of car-parts makers, most of which are profitably supplying the plants of foreign carmakers such as Toyota and Honda, which this week announced that it will build a new plant in Indiana, to open in 2008..Gordon Hunter, Littelfuse's chief executive, is confident that America can maintain its edge in manufacturing.

7/04/2006 02:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

@reinvestor101

We can also 'arrange' a coup in Canada. The puppet government can be ordered to drill near Alaska.

This way we don't have to pay for shipping oil all the way from Venezuela!

To hell with Chavez or whoever.

Does my idea beat Pat Robertson's?

7/04/2006 02:51:00 PM  
Anonymous dreamtheaterr said...

REINVESTOR101 said...
"When someone's attacks this country, I could give a damn what everyone else thinks. We have to do whatever we have to do. Moreover, we're the preeminent economic and military power in the world, so why shouldn't we rule?"

Did Saddam attack you on 9/11?

"Moreover, we're the preeminent economic and military power in the world, so why shouldn't we rule?"

Heard of the Roman empire?

7/04/2006 02:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon,

You are correct, we are still #1 in maufacturing. I agree, but that is slowly changing.

Walk through walmart, home depot, where is your ipod made? he he..if I have an ipod, i would bet you do too...he he..

True, about the media. THe media doesn't know shit from shinola. For example, GM. GM gets alot of doom and gloom attanced to it. You think they are going to fold...right? But you goto China, and what do all them china men want to drive? They wanna drive GM. GM cars are all the rage in China. GM must be making bank in China. So, sometimes the glass is half empty or half full.

I prescribe, put down the economist, its not exactley a literary pearl, and just visit some places. You will learn alot, and might see some validity to what I am saying.

In any case, thanks for rebuttal.

SAS

7/04/2006 03:04:00 PM  
Blogger Gregory K. Lauray said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

7/04/2006 03:13:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

7/04/2006 03:28:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

"For example, GM. GM gets alot of doom and gloom attanced to it. You think they are going to fold...right?"

Flatly incorrect. I'm sorry, but you have it wrong. GM is two steps from sinking into lake Erie. Only the disgorging of its crown jewel, GMAC, and a host of other desperate measures have turned the tide. Ford is 2 steps behind. Chrysler is owned by Dr.Z.

These guys are more Xerox, Kodak and Polaroid, than they are Fannie Mae. There is no cavalry.

chicago

7/04/2006 03:31:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

grim said...
Because paying interest is "throwing away money". :)

Mortgage Amt: $240,000
15Y Fixed @ 7%
Total Interest: ~$148,000
Total Repaid: ~$388,000
30Y Fixed @ 7.5%
Total Interest: ~$364,000
Total Repaid: ~$604,000
grim
7/04/2006 02:29:11 PM

grim-ola:

I appreciate your point, but I don't know whether I am on your side of the fence with this one.

If the person is putting down more than 20%, then a 15Y fixed seems a tad conservative. The 30Y fixed gives an appropriate level of rigor, and there is the option of ramping up principle repayments. I know that there is some nominal interest rate savings, but in this environment with a flat curve and [still] below average rates, I think paying up for flexibility is actually the more "conservative" course of action.

chicago

7/04/2006 03:37:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

July 4, 2006
Hot Dog Eater Wins 6th Straight Contest
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 3:59 p.m. ET

NEW YORK (AP) -- A 160-pound wonder from Japan set a new record by devouring a sickening 53 3/4 frankfurters in 12 minutes to win the annual Independence Day hot dog eating competition on Coney Island.

The feat earned Takeru Kobayashi, 27, his sixth straight title in the event, held at the original Nathan's Famous hot dog stand on Brooklyn's seashore.

He broke his own record of 53 1/2 hot dogs, set at the same competition two years ago.

Thousands of raucous spectators jammed the streets in front of the hot dog stand, a block from the famed Coney Island boardwalk, to watch the competition and Kobayashi -- a top-ranked eater who once ate 17.7 pounds of pan-seared cow brains to win $25,000.

His strongest competition was Joey Chestnut, a 220-pound civil engineering student from San Jose, Calif., who set an American record by eating 50 hot dogs during a qualifying tournament in Las Vegas.

Chestnut jumped out to an early lead in the competition, sometimes jamming franks into his mouth with two hands as the crowd roared.

But Chestnut struggled, red-faced, with veins bulging in his forehead, the Japanese star methodically chomped dog after dog, often dipping them in a soft drink before cramming them into his mouth. Kobayashi passed Chestnut with about three minutes left in the contest.

When the clock expired, Chestnut had swallowed 52 Nathan's franks -- not quite enough.

Among the other competitors were another favorite, 100-pound Sonya ''The Black Widow'' Thomas, of Alexandria, Va., who once ate 65 hard boiled eggs in a little more than 6 1/2 minutes, and a local favorite, Eric ''Badlands'' Booker, a 425-pound subway conductor from Long Island who holds speed-eating records for pies and matzo balls.

7/04/2006 04:25:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Well said Pat, in post #3.

Thanks to all the troops fighting a war they were sent to fight by both parties, because they are fighting for America, and Americans:

http://freedomagenda.com/iraq/wmd_quotes.html

Just some of those who voted YES to authorize the use of United States Armed Forces against Iraq:

Biden, Joseph (D-DE)
Clinton, Hillary (D-NY)
Edwards, John (D-NC)
Kerry, John (D-MA)
Lieberman, Joseph (D-CT)
Murtha, John (D-PA)
Reid, Harry (D-NV)
Schumer, Charles (D-NY)


All the names are here:

http://freedomagenda.com/iraq/wmd_quotes.html


Had a great day at the town fair, and will enjoy the fireworks tonight while thinking of all who have fought and died for this country, even as many opposed them both at home and abroad.

And even though the "mainstream" media has lost interest in Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan, many here at home have not. Those troops are also in our thoughts.

Happy 4th of July folks!

7/04/2006 04:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are correct, we are still #1 in maufacturing. I agree, but that is slowly changing.

Actually, it is not. US lead in the world's manufacturing has been growing, not slowing. Nobody knows what will happen in the future, but in the recent years US manufacturing has become stronger in every way (slightly less jobs though since productivity has increased much more). Yes, we don't do so much simple things anymore but we do more advanced stuff. The myth about declining US manufacturing is widespread but it is not true.

7/04/2006 04:52:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

I always lean towards getting a 30-year fixed, and then paying it off early. Gives more flexibility than a 15-year mortgage, and the cost difference is minor.

7/04/2006 04:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How does the paying off early work in practise?

Say, your monthly payment in $3k. Can you just pay $4k every now and then and hope that the bank takes this into account.

7/04/2006 05:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Sugee said...

"How come I am not seeing price reductions? I am looking for a 3br townhouse in Mahwah. I saw one yesterday asking for $459K mls #2610438. Then I saw another on for $499 mls #2625089."

I think it does not matter what they ask. Maybe you can use an estimated price for the house from 1995, and compound it using that price as principle with a 5% interest, to arrive at 'total' offer figure. Following URL can be used to calculate 'total' compunded figure.

http://www.1728.com/compint.htm

1995 price ? By using domania.com and taxrecords.com for same or similar homes in that neighbourhood.

I am not saying that the offer will be accepted, but perhaps will become a beginning to something:-) Let us buyers at least peg our own place from where we want to start negotiations.

7/04/2006 05:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"How does the paying off early work in practise?"
You bank will calculate the principle you owe every month. I pay off my 15 years in 8 years.

007

7/04/2006 05:48:00 PM  
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7/04/2006 05:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shytown finance,

Good day to you. Maybe I didn't word myself correctly earlier. As you say, GM ia 2 steps from Lke Erie. I agree. In the media, thats all you hear, but there is a flip side to GM that you don't hear. That being China. I have been to China twice in the past year and half. Let me tell you, all those china men want GM cars, you drive on the roads, thats all you see. When I was there, I was surprized, what the hell all these guys driving GM cars?

China is an emerging market, we all know that, imagine 1 billion GM cars being sold? Sounds crazy, then again, look at NJ RE over the past few years.

If I never would have been to China, I would say no way....goto China seeing is believing.

If GM plays cards right, and China continues to grow, its possible. Why china loves GM? who the hell knows.....?

This is the side of GM that we don't hear from the media, thats all. Just my opinion, based on what I have seen in travels.

Am I flat wrong? ehh..perhaps...

Bull markets are born on pessimism right?
But GM could blow it too, shall be interesting.

SAS

PS- you guys get yourself a decent QB, you have one hell of a team..(Bears).

7/04/2006 06:05:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The myth about declining US manufacturing is widespread but it is not true.

Didn't W's team reclassify the assembly of hamburgers as a manufacturing job?

jw

7/04/2006 06:54:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...


In Hudson county, you can't find anything near the waterfront for less than $4,500 a month rent.


This is total and unadulterated nonsense. I used to stay in a 2bedroom relatively new complex in Hudson with views of Manhattan for less than < 2000 a month, and there were even cheaper 2 bed units available for sale for less than that.

Furthermore, along River road, there are many, many rental complexes. These are true waterfront areas, and you can get 2bed/2 bath in fairly new, very well equipped complexes for 2100-2500. In both Hudson County and Edgewater (bergen). Older complexes are much cheaper, and Blvd. East has many 2bed/1bath for 1500-2000K.

Your statement is so totally wrong, that one wonders whether you've ever even been in Hudson County.

7/04/2006 06:58:00 PM  
Blogger WickedQuiver said...

If inflation is at say 3 or 3 1/2% and factoring in taxes I figure i need to make 5% on my savings via a money market. Anything less than 5% and I could be loseing ground to taxes and inflation.

Is my thinking correct?

Thanks in advance!

7/04/2006 07:01:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...


I used to stay in a 2bedroom relatively new complex in Hudson with views of Manhattan for less than < 2000 a month, and there were even cheaper 2 bed units available for sale for less than that.


I meant there were 2 bed units available for rent for less than that.

On mortgages, I currently have a 15 year with a bi-weekly payment. There was enough of a difference between it and the 30 year to make it worth my while, and frankly, like many an institutional investor, I find myself with a cash glut, i.e. far more cash than reasonably priced investments, hence I would rather use it to pay off my mortgage.

If the Fed keeps raising interest rates, then it might make sense to take longer term mortgages and pay them off.

The flip side is that if we go back to a very low short-term interest rate environment, I would still recommend to disciplined buyers that they get an ARM, with a very low interest rate and pay down as much principal as possible (assuming to prepayment penalty).

7/04/2006 07:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

wickedquiv - if you invest in money mkt, you are getting a nominal rate, which equals inflation plus real rate...hence, you will always be keeping up with inflation...and as long as taxes are less than 100%, you will still have a real return...

7/04/2006 07:11:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...


ctually, the BRIC stock market has crashed (e.g. India by 20-40%) in the last 2 months.


There was no 40% fall in India and
You're still way, way ahead if you bought 1 year back.

The Indian and CHinese ecnomies are growing like gangbusters. Of course, they are starting from smaller bases than the US, but the fact is that historically a huge portion of India's GDP used to be tied to agriculture. Thats changing quickly.

And I for one think its great that hundreds of millions of people in India and China are getting a chnce to grow out of poverty.

Incidentally, real estate prices in top Indian and Chinese towns can approach those in the US, and the affordability index is much lower there than here.

7/04/2006 07:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

{{{{This is total and unadulterated nonsense. I used to stay in a 2bedroom relatively new complex in Hudson with views of Manhattan for less than < 2000 a month, and there were even cheaper 2 bed units available for sale for less than that.}}}

Used to does not today. Today non regulated rents are rising by the greatest amount in 25 years. It is crazy what is being asked in terms of rent in parts of Jersey City & the rest of Hudson county. Utilties are another 'few hundred or so' every month.

{{Furthermore, along River road, there are many, many rental complexes. These are true waterfront areas, and you can get 2bed/2 bath in fairly new, very well equipped complexes for 2100-2500. In both Hudson County and Edgewater (bergen). Older complexes are much cheaper, and Blvd. East has many 2bed/1bath for 1500-2000K.}}}

Not for less than $2,000, and Heat, Hot Water, Electricity, & parking is NEVER included.

{{Your statement is so totally wrong, that one wonders whether you've ever even been in Hudson County.}}}

Yes, I have only lived in the NY area for 29 years and have looked at many apartments and listings in Hudson county as well as in Queens & Long Island.

I can tell you one thing, finding an apartment for less than $2,000 in decent shape with a commute of less than 90 minutes to midtown, where you only need to pay one month rent upfront & one month for broker fee is nearly impossible.

7/04/2006 08:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I saw 2 properties today in parsippany, one was bought by a "invester" last June at 335K and now is asking for 500K. It is basically a junk with messy lot. I plan to offer 150K just to wake the guy up. The other one is asking for 399K on a .33 acre property with 3 bd and 1 bath. I plan to offer 170K. The sellers are still day dreaming.

7/04/2006 08:13:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hah. One I'm watching was purchased for $220k on 6/19/2002.

Listed for $450 in 2005.

Now it's at $399. The listing says, "Amazing $40,000 Price Reduction! Owners Want To Sell!

Bob, any thoughts?

Pat

7/04/2006 08:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And I for one think its great that hundreds of millions of people in India and China are getting a chnce to grow out of poverty.

Absolutely true. I know of folks who grew up in Bombay, and they said that the difference between 10 yrs ago and now is absolutely great. One testament to this is the fact that homebuying was something you did in your 40s-50s. Now, kids right out of college are hit up with good jobs in a growing technology sector and find all this extra residual income.
Its feeding the economy in two ways
a) making the new generation richer
b) increasing consumer spending and hence feedng other sectors...

I think in maybe 15 yrs, the Indias and Chinas of the world will have a much larger say in the world economy and associated bodies and decisions

7/04/2006 08:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Same shit, different countries.

In the 70's..Europe. What happened there? Wir sprechen noch nicht Deutsch.

In the 80's..Japan. Yeah, we can say Toyota, that's about it.

What is the squawk now... numbers of people? Is that the entire reason that this time will be different?

Pat

7/04/2006 08:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

bid at least 60% lower than asking price, guys! don't beguiled by the so called "reduction". Let the "investors" lose their pants.

7/04/2006 08:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5525283

7/04/2006 09:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Stan said...

Anon 9:12-
There are thousands of apartments at market rates in Hoboken for less than $2,000 a month that have less than 60 minute commutes to midtown.

There are also plenty of places where you can get a pair of jeans for less than $300.

7/04/2006 09:25:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

{{There are thousands of apartments at market rates in Hoboken for less than $2,000 a month that have less than 60 minute commutes to midtown.}}

Sure, you can rent one of these 'Huge' 600 square foot one bedroom apartments in 'Western Hoboken' AKA Jersey City Heights for only $1,600 a month + Heat + Hot Water + Electric + parking (all of which are NEVER included).

Such a great deal right?? You can think about all the money you are saving by 'not buying now' when you swipe your credit card for $2,000 worth of clothing in Soho each weekend.

You can also find a wonderful 550 square foot one bedroom condo in the same nabe for only $400,000 with 'Only' $250 a month for maintenance and another $5,000 in annual property taxes. Such a great deal. No wonder that when you respond to the listing, since it is priced so low, it is either sold or in contract.

7/04/2006 10:00:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...


Used to does not today. Today non regulated rents are rising by the greatest amount in 25 years

1) I was speaking of the place I stayed in until 2 months back. I know the landlord put it up for $1950, and I think he would settle for less. Its possible that the rents have gone up dramatically in the last 3-4 weeks, but I doubt it.

2) Rents in at least some Hudson County towns have limits on increases. In North Bergen, its around 3%.


Not for less than $2,000, and Heat, Hot Water, Electricity, & parking is NEVER included.


Whom I'm going to believe ? You or my lying eyes ? I KNOW this place with views of NYC was up for rent for $1950 2 months back. I KNOW parking was freee. Furthermore, I KNOW one unit is still up for rent for 1750. Heres the URL (its 2 bedroom)

http://tinyurl.com/qh9ab

Your original claim was that it was impossible to get a good rental in Hudson County waterfront area for less than 4500. I claim you;re talking total nonsense. [ And please don't bring utilities into it, you didn;t mention them earlier in your 4.5Kfigure]

A lot of the complexes along River Road will give you excellent 2 bedrooms for < 2500, new buildings, good facilities. So you're off by at least 2K. Older buildings on River Road or in Blvd. East are even cheaper, you can get < 2K 2 bedrooms. This is NOT hypothetical, I KNOW places that were doing this.


I can tell you one thing, finding an apartment for less than $2,000 in decent shape with a commute of less than 90 minutes to midtown, where you only need to pay one month rent upfront & one month for broker fee is nearly impossible.


I can tell you, you;re talking through your hat. The place I was staying in had 15-35 minute commute to NYC midtown, less than $2000, was build in 98 and reasonably built. Broker fee was 1 month. I don;t recollect if you had to pay more than one month fee's upfront but that was doubtless negotiable.

Furthermore, large rental complexes don't have brokers fees.

please don't feed us this bull. Thoese of us who actually live in Hudson County know better.

7/04/2006 10:09:00 PM  
Blogger Grim Ghost said...


Sure, you can rent one of these 'Huge' 600 square foot one bedroom apartments in 'Western Hoboken' AKA Jersey City Heights for only $1,600 a month + Heat + Hot Water + Electric + parking (all of which are NEVER included).


Well, earlier you were saying 4500K. Now you're down to 1600K ?

In any case, look outside of Hoboken. Look in Bayonne, Weehawken, Guttenberg, North Bergen, even Edgewatger and Fort Lee. Or may you're just rather fuss about how everyting costs 4500 and how everyone is spending money in Soho, rather than actually ... you know .. doing something.

7/04/2006 10:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

@pat
population does make a difference ...

In my opinion, the key to success is access to ‘relatively’ cheap labor. Cheap labor keeps inflation down and at the same time increases savings among middle class.

In India and China middle class will have access to cheap labor in the near long term because of the huge population.

7/04/2006 10:15:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Remember: no one is your friend, and people will kill for less than the amount of commission money on the table.

I know that was posted under another topic, but this topic probaly has more traffic.

Let me explain how much we really make.
A commission is split 4 ways.
First in half by listing office and selling office then ( according to a contract signed btwn agent and broker ) split again btwn broker and agent. I get 1/4 of the commission. In my four years I have never made more than1.25% that would be a 5% commision. I generally make 1% that is the common split around here. I have never charged more than 4.5% on a listing, and I dont sell my own listings.
I do not kill for a commission, and a 10,000 price increase gets me 100.00.
I just recieved a commission check on a home that has been under contract for over a year. A partial list on things I have done on behalf of that listing are:
Please keep in mind this was an empty house with out of town owners because of an estate.
1. hired cleaning service
1.5 hired lawn service
2 Hired lock smith
3 held numerouse open houses,
4 negotioated 3 diffrent contracts. had 2 back out.
5. Helped by doing the paperwork and filing for various permits needed for oil tank removal.
6. Attended variance court date.
7. filed for and let town in on 3 diffrent occastions to meet zoning codes.
8. spoke to and worked with 4 diffrent attorneys.
9 Worked with the state to complete requirements for their inspections.
10 Checked on the home thruout the winter because it was vacant
11 Got a 3 month renter ( needed an apt while home being remodeled) to help sellers cover some of there carrying cost.
The list goes one and on .

Then there was the client who had me almost every sunday morning last summer - looking for a bigger place.I went on averge 4-6 homes a trip and at the end of the summer she decided to make her place ( condo) a little bigger by creating a br from a dr.
This year she decided to move , I got the listing and sold it relativly easy. Although I did do what I usually do= Let people in if she wont be home, file paperwork for co and wait for town to come, take paperwork to attornies, negotiating, inspections, appraisals etc.
for this sale I made 2650. And she said oh wow you really did good.
guess she forgot about last summer where I got nothing except gas reciepts.
I know I am venting (that whole kill for commissions gets me sometimes) But I don't think anyone on this board works for nothing, and if they think that what realtors do they don't have to use one. The clients that have used my services appreciate them.

KL

7/04/2006 11:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

KL= anon= rhymingrealtor

Log in didnt work

7/04/2006 11:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

O.K., so now we'll begin to hear from a bunch of whiners from India.

http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/90-07042006-679226.html

Where is the "Queens of India" - Kalkaji?

7/05/2006 12:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon 1:23

what is there to whine about? Drugs and drug uses are everywhere...even on housing blogs...now scat!!

7/05/2006 03:51:00 PM  

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