Wednesday, July 05, 2006

Northern New Jersey Weekly Inventory Update

GSMLS - http://www.gsmls.com
(Garden State Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)


6/28 - 18,526
7/5 - 18,360 (0.9% Decrease)


NJMLS - http://www.njmls.com
(New Jersey Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)

6/28 - 9,165
7/5 - 9,089 (0.8% Decrease)


MLSGuide - http://www.mlsguide.com
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)


6/28 - 2,621
7/5 - 2,644 (0.9% Increase)

25 Comments:

Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

For the curious in Bergen County, here are the number of residential SFH listings NOT including condos & co-ops from NJMLS

03/03 3,132
03/10 3,230
03/17 3,337
03/23 3,432
03/30 3,543

04/05 3,628
04/12 3,706
04/19 3,781
04/24 3,856

05/08 4,082
05/15 4,174
05/22 4,292
05/29 4,352

06/05 4,382
06/12 4,353
06/19 4,526
06/26 4,588
As of today: 4,550

Rich

7/05/2006 02:09:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BOOOOOO!

First decrease in months, correct?

7/05/2006 02:22:00 PM  
Blogger NJGal said...

I'm not surprised at the decrease at all. After all, anecdotally I have seen more sales recently, just following, because people ARE trying to buy, sell and move before the new school year. But I do expect the remaining inventory to sit and if not increase a lot yet, increase again majorly next spring.

7/05/2006 02:57:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

The "increase" (100 houses statewide?) is likely from parents feeling the squeeze to register kiddies for the 2006/2007 school year.

"July Is A Moment Of Truth"
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=1002

7/05/2006 03:00:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

See the market is just correcting.

NO Bust out. All you gloom and doom
people on this blog.

Wait, correct and an upswing.

Price them right and they will
sell.

But Coin is necessary something
that most on this blog. probably
don't have.

You can't stop the NJ economy, long and strong.

7/05/2006 04:08:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

I'm afraid your timing is a bit "premature" my friend.

During the last down cycle, the steepest nominal price declines took more than 3 years to play out. An additional 5 years of real price declines was seen before the bottom was reached.

But.. It's different this time.

grim

7/05/2006 04:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Of course its different, what
are you people in a dream world.

You think these high net worth
people in North Jersey are going
to give the property away to bottom
fishers, who can't produce proof
of funds.

Forget it. They will just wait
it out. That my friend is why you will see inventory drop.

7/05/2006 05:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Go ahead and make the low ball
offers, the property owner who
has staying power will just laugh
at you low ballers.

Sounds to me like some of you want to be in the Real Estate Business.

7/05/2006 05:25:00 PM  
Blogger wfmukerm said...

ARMs will continue to adjust (upward);

CC interest rates will continue to adjust (upward), etc.,

NJ Sales Tax will adjust (upward; sorry, couldn't help myself)

municipalites will continue to reasess based on the 15% YOY(avg.) increase in home "market" values.(upward)

Am I wrong on any of this?

I think the difference of this bubble from my very untrained eye are the amount of agressive products put out there that allowed the prices and values to get where they are.

so i think it is different know, the pressure will be concentrated over a shorter time.

7/05/2006 05:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You think the banks are going to
let this get out of hand?

Answer: NO

This is not 1990.

We print Money for everything else
so ,

7/05/2006 06:20:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

remember, in RE bubbles there are always little flickers.

This is a very weak flicker.
SAS

7/05/2006 06:22:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

OK, is the answer:

A) a desperate realtor

B) a desperate "investor"

7/05/2006 07:52:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Forget it. They will just wait it out. That my friend is why you will see inventory drop. the property owner who has staying power will just laugh at you low ballers.

To some extent, you are probably right. Those who can afford the mortgage payment, taxes and don’t have a pressing need to leave will just stay put. This is why housing bubbles often end in illiquidity and are “sticky” on the way down (but probably less sticky this time). It wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see a pulling-back of inventory as frustrated sellers take their homes off the market or let listings expire.

HOWEVER prices aren’t set by those who stay put. They are set at the margin by the transactions that do take place. While you may be financially sound and decide to stay put, your neighbor may have bought at the top with a I/O loan with a teaser rate about to expire or maybe your neighbor lost his or her job and are forced to sell. They need to sell and take a lowball offer. Poof, there goes the comps. Your house just lost value on paper.

All this being said, this is the first time this year the GSMLS showed a decline in inventory. One week doesn’t establish a trend.

7/05/2006 08:48:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

You think the banks are going to let this get out of hand?

They already have. It’s too late to put the genie back in the bottle now.

Answer: NO
This is not 1990.
We print Money for everything else so ,


Unlikely. Inflation is already above the Fed’s “comfort zone”. Besides, there is already more than enough excess money sloshing around the economy with nowhere to go. Credit is still cheap.
Excess liquidity is why we have the housing bubble in the first place. Go ahead and print money. The bond traders will just push up interest rates. Besides, there is no guarantee this new liquidity will find its way to housing. It isn’t like we reinflated the dot.com bubble.

7/05/2006 08:59:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

7/05/2006 08:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ahh.....how soon they forget....

I love watching history repeat itself.

SAS

7/05/2006 09:11:00 PM  
Blogger X-Underwriter said...

Anonymous said...
Forget it. They will just wait
it out. That my friend is why you will see inventory drop.

If this takes several years to play out, that's a long time to wait it out. One year maybe, but if you have to sell, you have to sell eventually.

7/05/2006 09:23:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Wait all you want.

Prices are set at the margins. All it takes is a handful of sales to drop the comps dramatically.

Once the comps are down, appraisers will not be able to justify values. Lenders will not lend on properties that don't "hit the number".

grim

7/05/2006 09:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Once the comps are down, appraisers will not be able to justify values. Lenders will not lend on properties that don't "hit the number".
While I am not sure how these cases effect the whole picture but I have seen cash buyers ( alot recently) not needing appraisals ( though they should get one anyway)
Propping up prices.
KL

7/05/2006 10:18:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am going to start taking this not being able to sign in personally )-:
Should I ??
KL

7/05/2006 10:19:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

frustrated sellers who aren't getting their lowest 'acceptable' selling price are also deciding to rent. i've seen this happen on a few properties in westfield. they figure they'll rent and wait the market out for better times. the few properties i have noticed this on have lots of equity built up so the owners aren't hurting. i guess not a bad play since you're playing with equity but you have the potential of getting less for your house in the future and tenants can be hard to find/manage.

7/06/2006 02:44:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

KL,

I don't know what the problem could be, I don't believe anyone else is having a problem signing in.

Check your email if you haven't when you read this.

jb

7/06/2006 06:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i think the numbers came down on the night of June 30. A few properties must have timed out during that period (mid year?).

The number was high at around 10:30PM on June 30 night but had dropped when i checked at 7:30AM the next morning.

7/06/2006 06:45:00 AM  
Blogger delford said...

The numbers probably just went down, due to relisting, for instance in my zip code, On June 30, four listings went off the njmls, (some might assume they sold) Well today on July 6th, three of them are back, with new pictures and reduced prices. so to me this so called reduction in inventory is just noise.

7/06/2006 10:13:00 AM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

For the curious in Bergen County, here are the number of residential SFH listings NOT including condos & co-ops from NJMLS

03/03 3,132
03/10 3,230
03/17 3,337
03/23 3,432
03/30 3,543

04/05 3,628
04/12 3,706
04/19 3,781
04/24 3,856

05/08 4,082
05/15 4,174
05/22 4,292
05/29 4,352

06/05 4,382
06/12 4,353
06/19 4,526
06/26 4,588

07/05 4,550
07/10 4,585
As of today: 4,613

7/12/2006 01:59:00 PM  

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