Northern New Jersey Weekly Inventory Update
GSMLS - http://www.gsmls.com
(Garden State Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)
7/5 - 18,360
7/12 - 18,573 (1.2% Increase)
NJMLS - http://www.njmls.com
(New Jersey Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)
7/5 - 9,089
7/12 - 9,187 (1.1% Increase)
MLSGuide - http://www.mlsguide.com
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)
7/5 - 2,644
7/12 - 2,623 (0.8% Decrease)
(Garden State Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)
7/5 - 18,360
7/12 - 18,573 (1.2% Increase)
NJMLS - http://www.njmls.com
(New Jersey Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)
7/5 - 9,089
7/12 - 9,187 (1.1% Increase)
MLSGuide - http://www.mlsguide.com
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)
7/5 - 2,644
7/12 - 2,623 (0.8% Decrease)
36 Comments:
Currently, there are 31,686 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site. For Residential Properties that are Multiple Listed with Garden State, 99% are available to be searched on this site.
http://www.gsmls.com
Hudson inventory on MLSGuide is up roughly 52-53% this year.
We started the year with about 1700, currently at 2624.
There is a bit more volatility associated with Hudson on MLSGuide, simply due to the fact that we're dealing with a smaller sample set of data. If you looked at county level data from GSMLS, you would see similar behavior.
You really need to aggregate to a multi-county level in order to eliminate the volatility and see a smoother trend develop.
grim
Usually how much of a chance there is for a "under contract" deal become nulled and the house goes back to the market?
Just wondering, because I saw this house that we really liked, empty, but the owner said it is under contract right now..
Any idea why Middlesex seems to have the biggest increase from the last year
Ph.D.
All those years in school and not one economics class? No probability and statistics?
Somesinks fishy in de bay, today, say aye.
"Usually how much of a chance there is for a "under contract" deal become nulled and the house goes back to the market?"
A few months ago, about a 5% chance at best. The 'back on market' trend (buyer getting cold feet) has been increasing, though.
Ph.D.
All those years in school and not one economics class? No probability and statistics?
Somesinks fishy in de bay, today, say aye.
I second the comment! I only have a Master's an even I can figure it out. What school did you attend? I'll be sure not to send my kids there!
BTW--you won't be able to afford much, so continue renting.
O.K. Ph.D...go do the math.
http://www.goodmortgage.com/mortgage_calculators.htm
http://tinyurl.com/npwre
Simple answer?
If you can rent that $450,000 townhouse for $2,500 a month, it's in your advantage to rent.
grim
and the $vix is up today to
$14.58
Fear is in the air.
Bad housing and the stock market.
Look out below.
PhD,
They give PhDs for head in the sand? Just kidding
My advice, but I am just a small fish in a sea of sharks.
Right now, cash is king.
I would hold off buying till this becomes a real buyers market. No matter what spin you hear, its still a sellers market, but that is just starting to change. Be patient, hold and save. Because if you buy a house today, its going to be worth less tomorrow, and you will be upside down, and that nice cash you have saved up will be in some fat bankers pocket, and he doesn't give a rats ass about you either.
Keep saving, stay out of debt, make your FICO score perfect, up your 401K contribution (helps to reduce tax burden come April), increase savings by reducing lifestyle a little.
Come late 07 or 08, reevaluate everything. As time goes on, the buyer (i.e you), gets more and more of the upper hand. Remember that. Believe me, the great real estate run up is over, market timing is everything.
I don't know your investment style, but perhaps think about investing in thirds. 1/3 cash money in a 5% savings account, 1/3 gold or silver (poor mans gold), 1/3 stock (check out uranium, coal, or nickel, and stay away from the Dow 30 becasuse its so propped up by these pencil neck traders. Maybe you can get the stock via your 401?
Off topic a little, but this might help to understand. We are in a time period of 1970s and Vietnam. Think of Iraq as Vietnam (although it ain't, but just for my example). Back then, we were in a time of rising interest rates, rising metals, and rising oil prices, and at war....ala...2006.
Housing was the last thing that made money.
Oil, gold/silver, interest rates all go up at the same time. I believe we are only in phase 1 on this bull market. I am sticking to my guns on this one but sometime within this year, we are looking at $100 oil, $1000/oz gold, 6% interest rate. If we go into another war (Iran or N. Korea) or if there is another big hurriance, my predicted prices will seem cheap.
Back in the 70's an ounce of gold bought the Dow. Yee, those day were alot of fun...
Take from me what you will.
SAS
Many building stocks reaching
52 week lows.
KBH, tol, hov,
very sad indeed.
Do not listen to Cramer
San Diego posts it's first median decline in a decade..
County housing market continues to soften
San Diego County's housing market continued to lose steam in June, with median home prices posting their first year-over-year decline in a decade and sales dropping for the 24th straight month.
...
Last month's median home price dropped to $488,000, a 1 percent decline from a year earlier and a 6 percent decrease from last November's peak of $518,000.
...
Meanwhile, sales increased slightly from May but were down 24 percent from June of 2005.
...
The segment of the housing market showing the biggest correction is new homes, which saw an 8 percent price decline, influenced, in part, by dropping prices for condo conversions.
Cramer is a joke. He is just a wall steet cheerleader.
He just wants to make everything fun so you will buy stocks. Oldest trick in the book. The powers that be want you to make an emotional attachemnt to him, so if he say "buy", all these yahoos go out and buy....its called the "Cramer effect".
The Street ain't Disneyland. I have seen alot of people lose it all.
You want fun and games, goto Vegas. Always hit on a soft 17.
SAS
Don't underestimate the ability to cut deep into margins when backed into a corner. HB margins are still strong.
In many regions, builders still have the ability to undercut existing home sellers, remaining profitable all the way.
Not investment advice, just my own opinion.
grim
We got a very tough stock market
and housing market.
The consumer will suffer.
0 financing is back and Chrysler
offering Employee pricing.
Hurry over to you Chrysler store.
Cash is King at 5% (for now).
CDs - 5%+ but not liquid enough. Over the long term CDs are 'constantly diminishing' in real terms.
For a downpayment to buy over next 1-3 years, I'd go 50% money market fund (Vanguard or TIAA) and 50% ultra-short/short-term bond fund with <2 yr durationfor a bit of extra yield (Fidelity and Vanguard).
For the long term, allocate among large/small cap globally via an index fund or ETF. The probability of fund managers outperforming the Total Stock Market index over 30 year period is virtually nil AFTER expenses, management fees (for wine tasting and call girls), taxes due to portfolio turnover and transactions costs.
I don't work on Wall Street but common sense tells me active management is a losers game designed to make Wall Street rich and the common man poor.
Hey, where did the guy with the PhD in Real Estate commissions go...
Must work in a 4:00 p.m. close office.
You guys (men) are way too nice, btw, to a guy who says he's been reading this blog since he moved here in January.
Pat
"I am not a Ph.D. in RE. In fact, I am a Ph.D. in engineering."
Sorry for the insult. Hope you're not from North Carolina, then I'm really in trouble.
phD
no apology needed or should be given to the mean-spirited posts. I suspect they are just teasing, poking good-natured fun.
What is the urgency to buy into a falling asset? Wait a year, you will get more for your money or pay less for the same thing.
JAY
Is it any wonder why rents have been stagnant in Northern NJ? If you need an answer, look to the stagnant wages over the same period. Wages and rents are tightly coupled.
So what changed, why have rents in the area gone up recently?
Because inflation is finally bleeding through to wages.
Sorry, but the increase in rents recently has more to do with wage inflation than house prices.
Renters don't care what your PITI is, they don't care what your breakeven is. Renters will only pay what they can afford. There are plenty of long-term landlords that can easily undercut recent buyers by huge margins. Landlords, like sellers, can ask whatever they like, but they'll only get what the market can support.
grim
PhD - tar sands?
Why aren't you up in Western Canada?
Hi Phd,
When my husband got his engineering PHD years back, he got high 50k first job. And we brought our first house in 200k with almost no down easily....
My advise to you are:
1. seeing the house you plan to buy, but don't offer yet;
2. check NJ first time home buyer option and loan rate;
3. get good chance and make your offer;
Good luck!
May
OT:
Client story. Husband and wife. Early 60's. Both want to retire soon. Haven't saved enough. Refinanced with a negative amort-ARM. Interest rates going up. She just got laid off.
They are going to sell the house and take the left over money to pay their bills. They are now forced to rent and lose their dream home in order to be more comfortable.
Now I have to convince them to keep working as long as possible.
Not going to happen.
May, is the First Time Home Buyer option a state program?
Phd
Here are some hard numbers for you on the townhouse you are considering:
$450,000.00 Sale Price
$90,00.00 Down Payment From your savings.
$10,000.00 for closing, escrow,mis. from your savings
$360,000.00 Mortgage Amount
7% Fixed interest rate for 30 years
$2,395.00 Mortgage Monthly Payment
$600.00 Monthly RE TAX (Estimate)
$250.00 Condo Fee (Estimate)
$3,245.00 Total Monthly Payment
You need a total combined income of 140k(28% rule)to qulify, which is a no problem for you .
Draw your own conclusion
Cliffy
Townhouse for 450k in Fort Lee ? is this a 2bd townhouse? no way you can find 3bd for that price, not yet .
Cliffy
Cliffy
You forgot to add $458 p/month lost interest on $100k downpayment/closing costs
$100,000 5.5% CD = $5,500 yr
$3703 p/month actual cost
JAY
add insurance and your close to $4,000
It's true. bs is.... ms is more shit, ph.d is piled higher and deeper.
They are bad with money. Me being one. Now they make ph.d's take statistics but really they should have at least one basic economics class. I have to learn through mistakes. If I knew I would have been very wealthy.
GSMLS 31,732 properties
gain of only 60 houses today :( i was hoping for another 100 like the past few days.
CF
Thanks for the example.
btw how much should a couple in their 60's do you think should have saved that will be comfortable in this day and age?
Some conservatives say 15 to as much as 20 times final salary. Or you can do replacement ratio calcs:
http://tinyurl.com/n4rdm
http://tinyurl.com/pfdw4
http://tinyurl.com/mfv8d
Then again, there's always Walmart.
Not Chicago (he left for the weekend.)
Anon 11:15:18
Thanks a lot. These sites are very educational and helpful.
You are as good as Chicago.
Are you Andy?
Have a good day.
I hope the stock market don't go down today.
Hi Mr. Oliver,
I can't recall what was excatly and if it is still there, but here is the link I found:
http://www.njcitizenaction.org/home.html
and http://www.njcitizenaction.org/leadpress2006mar13.html
I remember we got the lowest rate at that time, minimun down pay, and few thousands dollors back after about a years of loan...
As I mentioned earlier, we got nice 4br/2bth house at 200k that time... now a PHD can't aford it any more....definitely big bubble in house market...
Hope this helps and good luck!
May
Ooops, here is the full link:
http://www.njcitizenaction.org/leadpress2006mar13.html
May
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