Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Northern New Jersey Weekly Inventory Update

GSMLS - http://www.gsmls.com
(Garden State Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)

7/12 - 18,573
7/18 - 18,714 (0.8% Increase)


NJMLS - http://www.njmls.com
(New Jersey Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)


7/12 - 9,187
7/18 - 9,229 (0.5% Increase)


MLSGuide - http://www.mlsguide.com
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)


7/12 - 2,623
7/18 - 2,641 (0.7% Increase)

34 Comments:

Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

For the curious in Bergen County, here are the number of residential SFH listings NOT including condos & co-ops from NJMLS

03/03 3,132
03/10 3,230
03/17 3,337
03/23 3,432
03/30 3,543

04/05 3,628
04/12 3,706
04/19 3,781
04/24 3,856

05/08 4,082
05/15 4,174
05/22 4,292
05/29 4,352

06/05 4,382
06/12 4,353
06/19 4,526
06/26 4,588

07/05 4,550
07/12 4,613
As of today: 4,604

7/19/2006 12:59:00 PM  
Blogger Rich52 said...

GSMLS over 32k today.

7/19/2006 01:05:00 PM  
Blogger patient homebuyer said...

i am glad to see the market is still moving along well.

no glut of iventory at all

people are delusional if they thought this could last forever

7/19/2006 01:12:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Broke 32,000:

Currently, there are 32,013properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site. For Residential Properties that are Multiple Listed with Garden State, 99% are available to be searched on this site.

http://www.gsmls.com

7/19/2006 01:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Does any one have last year's (or even last three years) numbers? I'd be curious to see year over year. On a national level, inventory has just about doubled.

Plus, it seems like there are a lot of things not being captured by MLS that would paint an even more interesting picture, like pulled listing shifted to rental.

JM

7/19/2006 01:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Real Estate Articles from Inman News

New foreclosures rise about 12% in first half of '06

Wednesday, July 19, 2006


New foreclosures rose 11.8 percent in the first six months of the year, according to a report by Foreclosure.com, a company that compiles a database of foreclosed homes and investment property information.

7/19/2006 01:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

32K!!!!!!!!

Inventory piling up!

Papapapapa

Panic Grubbers

Bababbaba
Bob

7/19/2006 02:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

but prices are still high

7/19/2006 02:27:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

San Diego flipper in deep trouble:


This post is basically a cry for help, suggestions, words of encouragement.

Beginner investor here. I was so excited to get started after the Robert Allen Seminar in January of this year. As many of you know we purchased our first flip in March, a preforeclosure. A 3/2 in Clairemont. Comps at the time on that street sold for 580-$610K. We felt we had a decently discounted ppty when we bought it at $465K. Most investors and real estate professionals we spoke with thought we got a decent deal. Yup, you may know which one. The one where the inspector missed the tree-rooty drains and the mold and asbestos tile layer beneath the carpet that I discovered later. The one where the seller (who is in jail now for something else) purposely failed to disclose all that &*(_ *.

Long story short we've spent 77K+ in repair and modest upgrades to the entire house, and continuing mortgage/holding costs. It's all borrowed money from equity in our primary residence, and maxed out credit cards. We put it (the ppty) on the market asking $598K FSBO. Not one bite despite all the pretty pictures and craigslist, backpage, etc marketing I attempted. After 4 weeks of FSBO and being laughed at by real estate agents we signed on with an agent. If/when it's sold we'll have paid the buyer/seller agents 4.5 - 5.5% altogether depending on who brings/represents the buyer. Yes the numbers are red and nasty. But the property is problem free and ready to live in and in a very sought after family-oriented neighborhood.

What next? Lease or Rent?

We've accepted the fact that we will not even break even. We do not need any shoulda-coulda lectures. We are looking for present and future tense suggestions or solutions. To those who are tempted to send "LOL" or other types of ridiculing messages please realize they will be ignored, we have a family with 4 kids and we started out in real estate investing to improve our financial lot and this experience in the market we are in has devastated our financial situation further. By the grace of God we are barely holding things together.

Any suggestions on what to do next with the property?

Thanks.

M.

http://websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/sdcia/vpost?id=1257755

7/19/2006 02:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Blog flogs McMansions
Wednesday, July 19, 2006

By SONI SANGHA
STAFF WRITER
THE RECORD

HAWORTH

McMansions aren't new in New Jersey, and they certainly aren't new to Haworth.

But when the first of two such houses started going up in the cul-de-sac next to Harvey Leeds' tidy ranch-style colonial, he fumed.

"I wondered if other people were as disturbed by this as me," Leeds said.

So the music executive decided to take the community's pulse using a blog, an online forum where Internet users can post their thoughts... more

JAY

7/19/2006 03:02:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Remember, the 32k inventory on the GSMLS includes commercial real estate as well.
I think it would be best for those interested in the rise or fall of residential real estate inventory to track Grim's inventory numbers.

Does any one have last year's (or even last three years) numbers?

The NJMLS only shows current active inventory and not historical. This is why I have been tracking the inventory (single family homes only) for Bergen County.

7/19/2006 03:11:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

I lost a large portion of historical data that I was not able to recover. The oldest piece back using my methodology was last September..

9/1/2005 - 11405

grim

7/19/2006 03:18:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

(GSMLS)

7/19/2006 03:18:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

richinnorthnj-

No, I appreciate all of the work you, Grim and others do. It's amazing.

I think I saw on an another thread, article posting that national inventory has gone from, something like, 1.3 million to 2.3 million yr over yr for the same time period. Just guessing, I have to believe NJ is running somewhere around the same increase % from last year.

JM

7/19/2006 03:18:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

So, GSMLS:

Sep 01, 2005 - 11,405

Jul 18, 2005 - 18,714


That 40% jump in inventory over 10 months looks like "market normalization" to me. Certainly not "running for the exits."

Suzanne was right after all.

7/19/2006 03:28:00 PM  
Blogger Shailesh Gala said...

Yahoo Real Estate strikes deal with Zillow

Visitors to Yahoo Real Estate can now use Zillow's software to look up and compare real-estate values, Yahoo announced Wednesday. Along with an approximation of a home's value, the Zillow software provides indicators showing value fluctuations over the past week, as well as graphs that chart changes over the past year.

Not everyone can find their home value through Zillow or its partnership with Yahoo Real Estate, however. While data on more than 65 million homes is available, some states--such as Indiana, Texas and Louisiana--are left out entirely due to nondisclosure laws, and some counties and individual homes are not yet in the database.

In other news:
Photos: Robots get smart
Apple investors look to Mac for earnings
Newsmaker: Moving on with Montecito
News.com Extra: Get paid for your links
Video: Intel launches Montecito Itanium
Seattle-based Zillow was launched in February 2006 by two members of the original team behind travel site Expedia: Richard Barton and Lloyd Frink. It uses a proprietary formula based primarily on public records to generate its "Zestimate" of a home's approximate market value. From that, it can create a "Zindex" median house value for a given geographic area on a particular day.

Zillow also implements satellite maps from GlobeXplorer to chart and visually compare housing features and prices. On Yahoo Real Estate, however, the map data will be provided by Yahoo Maps.

Zillow's Web site says most "Zestimates" are within 10 percent of a home's actual market value.

7/19/2006 03:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here is data from my inventory tracking since September '05. I also began tracking median asking prices in March. As you can see, median asking has dropped approx $15,000 from the May '06 high.

I have separate data on rentals which show median asking (rent) has increased from $1700 to $2000 p/month since April 7.

NJMLS, SFH and Condos.

BERGEN COUNTY
Date / # for Sale / Median Asking
19-Sep-05 3804
28-Nov-05 4107
2-Feb-06 4069
14-Feb-06 4142
15-Feb-06 4175
16-Feb-06 4168
18-Feb-06 4174
19-Feb-06 4181
24-Feb-06 4273
26-Feb-06 4294
2-Mar-06 4373
3-Mar-06 4372
5-Mar-06 4390
8-Mar-06 4498
10-Mar-06 4505
13-Mar-06 4538
15-Mar-06 4610
16-Mar-06 4616 589,000
22-Mar-06 4760
24-Mar-06 4800 589,000
30-Mar-06 4878 589,000
1-Apr-06 4878 589,000
5-Apr-06 4975 589,000
7-Apr-06 5011 589,000
9-Apr-06 5036 589,000
25-Apr-06 5313 589,900
1-May-06 5365 593,500
5-May-06 5519 595,000
8-May-06 5564 590,000
10-May-06 5640 589,900
11-May-06 5654 589,900
13-May-06 5673 589,000
15-May-06 5712 589,900
19-May-06 5832 588,000
23-May-06 5884 589,000
25-May-06 5934 589,000
31-May-06 5974 589,000
1-Jun-06 5964 589,900
7-Jun-06 6060
12-Jun-06 6128 589,000
13-Jun-06 6181 588,000
16-Jun-06 6177 588,400
28-Jun-06 6326 585,000
3-Jul-06 6240 584,300
8-Jul-06 6312 579,900
11-Jul-06 6357 579,960
19-Jul-06 6385 579,000

JAY

7/19/2006 03:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good article:

"Six months to housing hell"
http://moneyweek.com/file/10891/six-months-to-housing-hell.html

7/19/2006 04:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shorter link:

"Six months to housing hell"
http://tinyurl.com/m5zm2

7/19/2006 04:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I was just scouting the NJMLS.
These sellers are really being stubborn with some of those prices that they want.

Most of these sellers are in still in Neverland. They are in for a rude awakening.

Inventory is going up and up, when was the last time there was a significant decrease in inventory? I imagine it had to be some time ago.

I predict, come Labor Day, you will see the velocity of inventory buildup and then we will start to see some real price corrections.


Yee...its going to be alot of fun. Can't wait to see some sap wondering what hit em....
If someone bought last summer, better wipe that smile off your face, because you are about to lose everything.

Remember cash is king. Raise cash, reduce your lifestyle, get out of debt, don't buy into the hype, and be patient. Perhaps, even consider a secondary income to help get out of debt or raise cash.

SAS

7/19/2006 06:26:00 PM  
Anonymous MaryanneNJ said...

Check out this line from a 1 bedroom condo listing in Hoboken listed at $417K. Guess this is the new realtor lingo for price reduction:

"This unit's price has recently been adjusted for the market changes."

7/19/2006 07:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So what? Inventory is up, but no mentionable drop in prices. Will it really go down, or are we at a plateua? Is this just a blip on the screen, or a crack in the cement?

There are many foreigners buying condos in Miami--something will save the day, it always does.

7/19/2006 08:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Look face it .

Their's alot of money here in
NNJ.

Many have staying power so we will
not see the prices drop like many
of you think.

Buy while you can , because it
will reverse as soon as this
inventory clears up.

7/19/2006 08:18:00 PM  
Blogger X-Underwriter said...

Anonymous said...
Many have staying power so we will not see the prices drop like many of you think.

Let me take a guess, you're so new to this blog that you've ever seen one of Grim's price reduction summaries

7/19/2006 08:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yee...that Grim must have alot pateience for all these new comers with the same old lines....

SAS

7/19/2006 09:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is alot of borrowed money and debt in NNJ.

Big Difference.

SAS

7/19/2006 09:06:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"So what? Inventory is up, but no mentionable drop in prices."


I don't know where you're looking, but prices are dropping all over the place. Are they still too high, yes, after 4-5 years of insane appreciation. But prices are already heading in the right direction: down.

7/19/2006 09:13:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Q3 is going to be the most important quarter for New Jersey this year.

7/19/2006 09:17:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

because?

7/19/2006 09:29:00 PM  
Blogger Mr. Oliver said...

Anonymous said...

Shorter link:

"Six months to housing hell"
http://tinyurl.com/m5zm2

7/19/2006 05:16:01 PM


Fantastic article, thank you.

7/19/2006 09:49:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

because?

Based on how the median and average price have been trending, Q3 is likely going to be the first quarter with widespread year-over-year price declines in Northern NJ.

grim

7/20/2006 05:20:00 AM  
Blogger DebtVulture said...

Grim,

Every quarter is going to be the most important quarter from here on out, imho.

7/20/2006 07:03:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unrealtor-

I'm a pretty literal person so please forgive me if your comment about market normalization was sarcasm.

To me, a 40% increase in supply and a slight down tick in demand equals the beginning of a price shift.

Check out this link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand

Just reverse the shift for demand and move the supply curve over...

JM

7/20/2006 08:22:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"please forgive me if your comment about market normalization was sarcasm. "


You are forgiven. :)

I was channeling David Liarah.

7/20/2006 08:55:00 AM  

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