Saturday, August 05, 2006

Boom Going Bust

From the New York Times:

The Houses That Wouldn’t Move

The Balduccis put their 1951 colonial on the market in early May. They held seven open houses, drawing 10 or so potential buyers, but they still had not gotten a single offer as of early August — even after they dropped their asking price to $539,000 from $589,000.

“It’s very depressing,” Ms. Balducci said, adding that at least seven houses in her neighborhood had been on the market for at least as long as theirs. “It’s a little scary for us, too, because we very shortly may be in a position where we have to carry two mortgages.”
...
“A year ago, this house would have sold within two weeks maximum, and they would have easily gotten close to $600,000,” she said. “This really shows you what’s going on right now. It’s like the market just collapsed.”
...
In many cases, buyers and sellers have reached a wary stalemate.

“We’re at a point where sellers don’t want to lower their prices and buyers don’t want to raise their bids,” said Roberta Plutzik Baldwin, a broker at Re/Max Village Square in Upper Montclair, N.J. “Houses that are priced properly are selling, but buyers are now saying, ‘Wait a second, the market is stabilizing, so why should I pay $20,000 more when I could pay less?’ ”
...
“Agents aren’t telling people to get less than a house is worth; they’re just getting the asking prices down to where they should be,” he said. “People are finally starting to understand that even if they could have gotten more for their house last year, it’s not last year.”
...
“It seems like the boom kind of ended with everybody’s talk of the bubble bursting,” he said. “I think all the talk actually made it happen.”
...
According to the New Jersey Multiple Listing Service, the inventory of single-family homes in Bergen, Hudson, Passaic and Essex Counties was up 49 percent in June, to 6,768, compared with 4,538 in June 2005. The median sales price was up 3 percent, to $470,000; each of the previous five years had seen double-digit increases, going to $455,000 in 2005 from $275,000 in 2000.

Marc and Pamela Ross of Fair Lawn, N.J., looked at 25 houses in New Jersey last year, but never made an offer because prices were too high, they said. They resumed their house hunt a few weeks ago when they saw prices start to go down. Recently they were looking at a two-story colonial in Englewood that was listed at $424,900.

“You realize now some of these houses now are in our reach,” Mrs. Ross said, as they toured an open house in Englewood one recent Sunday.

I don't believe we are near the "bottom" of the market, a statement like that is not based in reality. Marc, Pamela, and everyone else looking to purchase right now, I suggest you wait. Ignore the media, ignore the real estate industry, use your head and make an informed decision.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

15 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

But I thought 'Everyone wanted to live here' because 'It is so close to NYC' and because there are 'So Many high paying jobs for everyone'.

The 'So close to NYC' is probably the biggest overstatement going. Not everyone wants to be in or around NYC. It is dirty, crowded, everything is expensive & overpriced, and the people as a whole couldn't get any more hostile, agressive or rude.

Also, if there are sooo many high paying jobs for everyone. How does one get one of these high paying over six figure jobs that they are referring to?? All I see are employment agencies with listings not actual employers and it is well known that many of these 'job listings' don't even exist.

8/05/2006 10:28:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 11:31

If you click on the slide show to the left of the article the last picture shows the beeeuutiful living room of what I assume to be the inside of that family's house and their stunning realtor. ;) Also, the last pic shows the house they want to move on up to.

You'd think if you were going to have an article about you in the NYTs you'd have a link to the house for sale, too!

D

8/05/2006 10:45:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Love the pink walls to match the pink shirt.

8/05/2006 11:50:00 AM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Here's a house that has fallen out of contract twice in the last month:

MLS 2268791
17 Marion Ave, Short Hills
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1058504194

Apr 18, 2006 - $1,595,000 (MLS 2268791)

May ??, 2006 - $1,545,000

Jun ??, 2006 - $1,499,000

Jun 14, 2006 - Under Contract

Jul 21, 2006 - Back on Market @ $1,499,000 (same MLS #)

Jul 28, 2006 - Under Contract

Aug 05, 2006 - Back on Market @ $1,499,000 (same MLS #)


Increasingly, Greater Fools are waking up and saying "Not me! I'm not going to be left holding the bag!"

8/05/2006 11:52:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"It seems like the boom kind of ended with everybody’s talk of the bubble bursting," he said. "I think all the talk actually made it happen."

Yeah its all the talk - it has nothing to do with the actual value of the house... Perhaps if we start suggesting that housing should be free, people will just start giving them away - ha!

8/05/2006 12:28:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 11:31-
What an ugly statement. I hope I never have neighbors and boorish and low class as you.

8/05/2006 01:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon 8/05/2006 01:28:06 PM,

damn good post.

SAS

8/05/2006 02:11:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

I deleted anon @ 11:31.

grim

8/05/2006 02:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Jay said...

from NPR's ON POINT:

A Tough Adjustment
It seemed like a good idea at the time. Just a few years back, when housing prices were soaring and interest rates were at historic lows, millions of Americans grabbed adjustable rate mortgages with super bargain basement rates. For many, it was the only way to jump on the American housing train.

Now that train is slowing, big-time. Home sales and prices are slumping in many markets. Interest rates are up and so are foreclosures, as the first big wave of adjustable rate mortgage holders face the music: sharply higher monthly payments or a scramble to refinance and push out the pain as housing prices stall.

It may be you, it may be your kids, it may be your home's value that takes the hit.

Hear about the American housing market, and the adjustable mortgage rate pinch.


Listen to the Program

JAY

8/05/2006 04:05:00 PM  
Anonymous Jay said...

Bad link in above post, try this

Listen to the Program

8/05/2006 04:10:00 PM  
Anonymous jay said...

“There are some buyers who feel they want to wait for the bottom, but you never know when the bottom’s going to come,” she said [Phyllis Bixon, regional vice president for Weichert Realtors in northeastern New Jersey]. “And if I had to guess, I’d say we’re not so far from the bottom right now.”

Phyllis is "guessing" the we are near the bottom, so you should plunge into a home purchase now, because she's a good guesser. At the bottom? What indicator is she using? 0-6% appreciation now after 100% increases in 5 years? You can't reach the bottom unless you travel southward where the bottom is located.

JAY

8/05/2006 05:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interest rates are up and so are foreclosures, as the first big wave of adjustable rate mortgage holders face the music: sharply higher monthly payments or a scramble to refinance and push out the pain as housing prices stall.


I pulled up homes using nj.com and noticed a lot of home listed with RealtyTrac--what's up with that? Are these really home owners in trouble with their mortgage? If so, they are in some of the choice neighborhoods like Montclair and Maplewood.

8/05/2006 06:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

“It seems like the boom kind of ended with everybody’s talk of the bubble bursting,” he said. “I think all the talk actually made it happen.”

gotta love this comment. Because you cried wolf it happened. Boohoo lets not focus on the unrealistic prices today
--BM

8/06/2006 07:06:00 AM  
Blogger Roadtripboy said...

“It seems like the boom kind of ended with everybody’s talk of the bubble bursting,” he said. “I think all the talk actually made it happen.”

"Everybody's talk?" Meaning who? The mainstream media has more or less been collectively ignoring this bubble, acting as if it doesn't exist. Just who or what group is this person referring to?

The people who have been talking about a bubble are economists who have no financial interest in seeing this boom continue (e.g., David Leareh) and of course we've been talking about it a little on this blog :-)

But by and large the only coverage of a bubble the public sees occurs when individuals decide to do their own research.

Only now that the horse has left the proverbial barn is the mainstream media starting to acknowledge the existence of a bubble.

8/07/2006 06:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Boo Hoo for the greedy sellers...

Sorry that you're not making 180% profit, now its just 155%

With the maket cooling as it should, maybe you real estate geniuses should stop watching TV on "how the sell a house" and come down from cloud nine and touch true economic reality.

8/20/2006 07:16:00 PM  

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