Bye Bye Condos, Hello Apartments
From Forbes:
Condos Cool Off, Apartments Heat Up
Condos Cool Off, Apartments Heat Up
Bubble believers had some unfortunately vindicating news yesterday when high-end home builder Toll Brothers unleashed bleak fiscal third-quarter results on a glum market: Signed contracts for new homes fell 47%, a humbling follow-on to a second-quarter drop of 33%.
Home ownership has been relatively strong, but we're seeing the downturn now," says Celia Chen, director of housing research at Economy.com. "We've seen strong demand for housing that was only partly supported by underlying factors. Household growth as well as employment and income growth have only been middling," she says, using a technical term, "yet we saw explosive growth in housing sales. In real terms, it's been stronger than at any time in the past 30 years. Now those forces are retreating, and we are seeing the excesses being worked off."
...
The rental market is in the sweet spot, says Michael Cohen, research strategist at Boston-based Property & Portfolio Research, an independent real estate research and advisory firm. "Vacancies are at 5.8% across the 54 major markets that we cover," he says. "That's the lowest they've been since the third quarter of 2001."
...
Cohen believes that trend will start to reverse as sales slow, which will in turn lead to converters returning units they had expected to sell as condos back to the rental market. High land prices, which in many markets have precluded construction of just about any property type other than condos, will also start to ease and facilitate rental development.
Says Cohen: "We think capital and developer attention will be diverting back toward rental, and we are beginning to hear that land costs in tertiary markets are easing." (For those in secondary and primary markets, patience is a virtue.)
75 Comments:
From the Washington Post:
Mills Corp. In Jeopardy Due to Debt, Accounting
Mall developer Mills Corp. yesterday said its auditors believe there is "substantial doubt" that the company can stay in business because of looming deadlines for repayment of $2 billion in debt.
In a Securities and Exchange Commission filing, the Chevy Chase company also disclosed that accounting mistakes will force it to shave $210 million off the $342.8 million in profit that it had reported from 2003 to September 2005.
...
In its filing, Mills yesterday offered new details on the looming debt and liquidity problems, on its massive Xanadu project at the Meadowlands in New Jersey, and on the board's efforts to find a buyer for Mills by the end of this year.
Mills borrowed almost $2 billion in May to give it enough cash to keep building several projects and refinance several existing malls. However, that debt came with a requirement that Mills find a buyer by the end of the year, a prospect that isn't assured, or Mills will go into default. Mills said this uncertainty is what will lead auditors Ernst & Young to issue a "going concern" letter when the company reports its overdue results this September. Such a letter essentially alerts investors that the company might not be able to survive.
From the Huffington Post:
Teeing Off: Who Needs Retirement?
By Henry Rollins (yes, of Black Flag)
Have you noticed how many advertisements you see for loan agencies these days? You know why there's so many? Could it be that more than ever, people are spending more than they're making? More than they'll ever make? That perhaps what they want is completely out of their price range?
I saw an ad on TV recently where an actress who is acting as a person in debt said she was so relieved that because her loan all her credit cards were paid off and that she was out of debt. Huh? She's still in debt--just to a different company. Why many people are compelled to live above and beyond their means is distressing. Perhaps they have been poisoned by too many lives of the rich and famous type shows. Perhaps some Americans are obsessed with the attractive and well publicized wealthy and want a taste of it for themselves before they shuffle off. There's a kind of Thelma and Louise "Aww, fuck it!" mad dash over the cliff fatalism to all this. For some who willfully spend beyond their means there is an air of self-destructive entitled justification that is frightening. What are they thinking, after they become millionaires, all this will be behind them? Those who plan poorly enough to find themselves in debt rarely plan well enough to get out. To be in debt and have to pay on the debt just so you can watch the rich and famous on a plasma screen in high definition is just not worth it. There are people in America who will be in debt all their lives, well beyond their capacity as part of the workforce. What then? Who picks up the tab?
"FOOL" Sale Signs all over the place!
Take a minimum of 25% off peak 2005 prices.
BOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Retail sales came in strong. From Marketwatch:
U.S. July retail sales up 1.4%, biggest gain in 6 months
U.S. retail sales increased at the fastest pace in six months in July, rising 1.4% on higher auto and gasoline sales, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Higher sales were seen across the board, from electronics to clothing. Sales of durable goods were particularly strong. Auto sales surged 3.1% in July, also the biggest gain since January. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 1%. The figures were higher than expected on Wall Street, where economists surveyed by MarketWatch were reckoning on a gain of 0.8% for retail sales and a 0.5% increase in sales excluding autos.
$500k for starter homes.....NOT!
How many of these starter "FOOLS" can plunk down $100k for a 50 year old crapbox?
A lot of HURTING people out there. Even more in the next 12 months.
Now if Easy Ben would do the right thing we could straighten out this mess......but do not count on him. Maybe a few fools have 9 lives.....juggling debt enough to survive.....but eventually most will be taught a lesson.
Bababa BUST!
Bob
At a lunch yesterday , Former
US rep bob franks told the group
to be careful of the Pharma Industry leaving NJ.
Seems that NJ stills continues to
be tax unfriendly.
HAHAHAHAHHA
GO trade in a car Debt junkies!
You'll find out that your underwater in your car loan and lease..HAHAHAHA.
If you want to buy a car these days buy a used one. Gluts and gluts or used cars at rock bottom prices.
No free lunches. Fools are finding this out now and in the next 12 months.
Babababababa
Bob
Retail sales up while the Ipsos confidence poll drops.
Consumer Confidence Hits 3-Month Low
Consumer confidence slid to a three-month low as people fretted about the direction of the economy and their own balance sheets in the months ahead.
The RBC CASH Index, based on results from the international polling firm Ipsos, showed confidence ebbed to 74.8 in early August. That marked a sharp drop from July's showing of 80.1. It was the second month in a row that confidence dropped, and it was the lowest reading since May.
Economists blamed the deterioration in confidence mostly on galloping energy prices and a cooling in the once-hot housing market.
Pharma industry downsizing and exodus would be DEVASTATING TO HOME PRICES IN NJ.
Oh I forgot Housing is the best asset class in the world. NOT NOW!
Babababa
Bob
I love Rollins. He is a genuine straight shooter. No BS there.
Does anyone think this will directly effect condo conversions going on in NNJ now?
Returning to NJ
We are already in the middle of the downsizing. Companies like Schering, Merck, and BMS have already downsized due to lowered revenues. Every major pharmaceutical already has operations in other states and manufacturing out of the country. When french company sanofi bought aventis, many of the jobs were pulled back to France, as their unemployment is much greater than here.
The next big step is consolidation
My cousin just sold their Clintontownship, Hunterdon County house.
Asked 489.9K Sold @ 485K in 17 days.
Their moving to Texas next week.
but its ok. nj is going to build
100k affordable houses over the
next 10 years.
So?
Houses do sell and we all know there are still a few breathing FOOLS around to be had,but the well is getting mighty dry.
It's "They are" not their.
People ARE still spending more than they are making. Retail sales were up 1.4% and 1.3% ex auto.
No auto retail sales up 9.2% over last year..
How do people do it especially with gasoline costs, rising rents & mortgages, etc...
In the NYC region most have nothing to show for their $200,000 a year salary except for a closet full of designer clothes, a BMW on lease, and a receipt of rent payments to their landlords for their $3,000 a month walkup apartment.
So?
All I'm saying is that there is still some hope for those who are selling and price their house to current conditions.
Now go and correct some more English exams.
There is also a 'reverse white flight' & 'reverse immigration' back to the NYC area from the suburbs..
Seems like everyone wants to live in some prefab $500,000 one bedroom condo, go 'car free' and rely on the unreliable MTA & PATH to get around, and pay ridiculous sums in taxes & rents just to be in a trendy part of NYC.
People in general here are dull as dishes, rude, uppity, bland, and homogenious concerned only with what others think
NJ is in big trouble.
look at the facts of life.
The world is coming to an end too, all non-belivers will go to hell
Reading some of the postings hereyou'd think we're already there.
Bubble-X,
Great work on providing that chart.
This represents a classic blow off top pattern. In any market mania, usually 50% of the total move occurs in the last 10% of the time, of the entire move.This is indicated clearly on your graph.
Mania sweeps through the market,buyers will do anything to get in, hurry up we'll never be able to afford, get in at any price, who cares if we get an adjustable, we can always sell and make 100k or refinance, etc... In no way, does common sense prevail. It is a freight train and get out of the way!!
Now for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Usually after blow off tops, the opposite reaction retraces most if not all of the move. In many cases, when the world capitulates, it goes lower than where it began.The freight train on the downside is getting its engines warmed up.
Again, great work. Thanks!!
PATIENCE,PATIENCE,PATIENCE
BC Bob
Bubble sitting: The pros and cons
Waiting for home prices to drop before buying a home is tempting, but making the right call isn't simple.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/11/real_estate/bubble_sitting/index.htm
to anon 10:10:04 AM
I think you are letting your prejudices get the better of you. I am an Manhattan resident, along with my wife and 8 mos. old child (and to anon 09:49:22 AM, I don't have a BMW or a closet full of designer clothes)
NYC is expensive, no doubt. So, while salaries are high, costs are high. My wife and I are solidly middle-class. We drive a Honda Accord, eat in every night, shop at the outlets, and try to get a movie once or twice a month. We rent now. We are trying to save as best we can to purchase something at some point.
We have made a committment to live and raise our chile in Manhattan because it is our home--not because we see living here as fashionable or trendy.
Our apartment is a 5 minute walk from each of our offices. That is the value of lving here--we each can go home at lunch to see our son, and I am home in 5 minutes at night to be with him--no traffic. Living in the 'burbs that would be impossible.
We thought about moving to NJ. But, unless we change our jobs--and that is not going to happen because we each have much invested in our current positions--our commutes whold be a minimum of 1 hour each way--that time not spent with my son is more valuable to me than some extra room or a back yard.
My point is this: don't assume that everyone living in Manhattan is a trust fund baby or wild-spender. None of the people in my circle of acquaintances remotely fits that description. There are middle-class people trying to do the right thing and live here because this our home, and we love it as much as you love your home.
Nice "Bubble Sitting" link.
More realtor propaganda quoted by media idiots:
-----------------------------
Dean Baker, an economist and co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, is a bubble sitter himself, having sold his home a couple of years ago. "It is a very bad time to buy. Prices are heading down," he said.
Baker also predicts that the markets that have run up the most will suffer the worst turndowns. He compares it to the tech bubble when Nasdaq stocks rang up the biggest gains before the pop and fell the farthest from their highs after it.
...
A colleague here at CNNMoney.com is a perfect example of someone who Baker thinks could take advantage of plunging home prices.
The colleague is moving from one New Jersey suburb to another with a more respected school system. He's selling and renting. That way, he hopes, he can wait out the bubble and scoop up a property from a motivated seller at a big discount next year.
"He's playing a bit of roulette," says Jim Gillespie, CEO of Coldwell Banker, who doesn't think even that scenario justifies bubble sitting. "Look at the history of prices in this country. [Postwar prices] have never gone down."
http://tinyurl.com/jv2on
---------------------------------
No rebuttal/context from the media idiots at CNN/Money followed that outrageous Weichert CEO lie...
So, anybody got any ideas who
will be taking over the Xanadu
project in the Meadowlands.
It seems Mill has a few minor
problems.
To anon 11:02:49 AM--you qrote:
"No rebuttal/context from the media idiots at CNN/Money followed that outrageous Weichert CEO lie..."
But, in the very next graph, the reporter did fact check the claim that prices never go down, and even provided a link. He wrote:
"While that may be true on a national level, it's also true that home prices in individual markets have fallen during periods after 1945. (See"When booms go bust".)"
Read more carefully next time.
He is right, if you look at the long term scale, remember that there is the inflation factor too, everything gets more expensive over time.
"But, in the very next graph [sic], the reporter did fact check the claim that prices never go down, and even provided a link."
Actually, he didn't at all.
"He wrote: 'While that may be true on a national level...'
A national level "prices have never gone down" since World War II, but I should "read more carefully next time"?
Thanks for brightening my morning with that bit of irony "Anonymous"!
"remember that there is the inflation factor too"
Yes, part of the missing context to which I reffered.
"While that may be true on a national level, it's also true that home prices in individual markets have fallen during periods after 1945. (See"When booms go bust".)"
Like the 1980-1985 period and the 1990-1995 period. He also forgot to point out the 25 year period before 1945!!!!!!!!
Spin, spin, spin.....like asking a pig if they are happy playing in a pile of shit!!!!!!!!
BC Bob
For all you naysayers on here who feel NJ is going down the tubes because businesses are fleeing the state:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/11/nyregion/11towers.html?ex=1155960000&en=033bdcfd24eaaceb&ei=5070
Sorry. Don't cry.
NJ is operating like a third world
country.
and why in the world would
i want to read anything that the
NYTimes has in print.
Socalist paper.
Grim, give em the facts
Hey Debt Junkies,
Did you extend the terms of the new car loan to 72 months?
did you rollover losses into new car loan?
Bet you didn't get much for that car you traded in.
Debt is in cash is out. NOT! Cash is king.
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
11:57:
When NY businesses move their offices to JC, it IS time to start crying.
Because the next step is out the door. You think saving 8 or 10 bucks a SQFT is the last thing these businesses will do to survive? Next time it will be an even bigger savings they'll need to shore up the bottom line.
NNJ is a part of NYC - Symbiotic relationship. You cannot look at inter NYC/NNJ corporate finance maneuvers as net contributors to the NJ economy. Scary last-ditch efforts, maybe.
Pat
"NJ is operating like a third world
country.
and why in the world would
i want to read anything that the
NYTimes has in print.
Socalist paper.
Grim, give em the facts "
Agree, don't belive anything they tell you in the news papers, they are just lies
Jersey City, another wonderful
NJ town.
Most people think its a horror
movie,
{{Jersey City, another wonderful
NJ town.
Most people think its a horror
movie, }}}
Where condos are selling for $500,000 to suburban frat kids just out of colllege or those who can't afford hoboken.
"Jersey City, another wonderful
NJ town.
Most people think its a horror
movie, "
Lower Manhattan was a horror movie in the 80s too, now I wish I was smart enough to be investing in it back then.
So if you got the moooney,,
move in. spread it around.
Make sure you get a handgun at
the closing.
Anonymous said...
"For all you naysayers on here who feel NJ is going down the tubes because businesses are fleeing the state:"
8/11/2006 11:57:42 AM
This can be compared to selling your house and moving across the street. It is a smart move for Citigroup/securities industry to move its back office or admin to NJ. I guess we are the lesser of two evils.
Don't throw a slam dunk at us, give us an example of a info technology firm or a manufacturing firm relocating from the southeast or midwest into Jersey. Don't spend too much time looking because you will be run over by the freight train leaving. By the way, what happens when Wall Street comes down with a cold??? Forget about the NYT, read what James Hughes, Policy and Planning, Rutgers, says about the current state of the state. He says NJ faces its most uncertain times since the Great Depression. This is much more concrete than your $10 sq ft swim across the river.
BC Bob
jayb,
stay with it man.
it comes in time.
guys brilliant.
Now about JC, why would any
company in their right mind locate
their? Answer : They don't.
Its just a way station as they
move ops elsewhere.
JC, is kidding themselves.
BC Bob and Booya Bob are two different beings.
jayb:
In support of BC Bob, I know exactly what BC Bob is writing. He seems clear.
I don't notice many caps going on in his posts.
Hmm.
Pat
Socalist paper.
What's a Socalist?
Remember, Judith Miller is employed there.
Some of July Hunterdon County Sold Listings:
High Bridge
MLS2294177 3BR,1Bath 309.9K Sold= 300K DOM 4
MLS2276464 3BR, 1Bath 289.9K Sold=284.9K DOM 26
Lebanon Boro
MLS2267975 3BR, @.5 Bath Condo 359.9K Sold=350K DOM 25
MLS2255423 2BR, 2 Bath Condo 329.9K Sold =322.5K DOM 31
MLS2260794 2BR, 1.5 Bath Condo 299.9K Sold=291.5K DOM 58
Town of Clinton
MLS223921 3BR, 1.5 Bath 549K Sold=540K DOM 5
MLS2252835 3BR, 2,5 Bath Townhouse 405K Sold= 305K DOM 72
Bethlehem Twp.
MLS 2272196 3BR, 3 Bath 599.9 Sold=605K DOM 61
MLS 2274800 4BR, 2.5 Bath 569.9K Sold=565.5 DOM 12
Clinton Twp.
MLS 22119109 5BR, 2.5Bath 1.199M Sold= 1.125M DOM 87
MLS 2226964 4BR, 3.5 Bath 1.1 M Sold=1.075M DOM79
read the paper and find out.
i dont
read the paper and find out.
i dont
That's obvious.
Fox News fan, eh?
Sorry, mistake MLS2252835 Actually Sold fpr 395K
HOBOKEN WAS A HORROR. Williamsburg/Brooklyn once nice was a horror and is developing again.. Downtown JC could be nice if they actually pull the cord on the plans for Newark Ave. Please .. You can do anything to any run down place.. PS. Sands Point in LI used to be full of run down mansions with broken windows and vacant waterfront property.. from the 20's.. No one lived there and then in the 60' and 50's people started buying property and buliding..You can take anyplace and turn it around if you have enough media attention or money..
No Fox for me, thats over.
libs got it now.
Jayb,
The only way I can make it any clearer is to utilize the monkeys on the career-builder commercial.
You think you work with a bunch of monkeys??? Well you would not believe some of the jack-asses that read my posts. Just like the monkey, take the sales are going up graph and turn it upside down.
Sums up the RE market.Clear now????
BC Bob
Socalist- (so Kal ist) One who likes to vacation in the Los angeles and San Diego Southland region of the United States. Person who claims allegiance to Hollywood.
Ant. Nocalist
I thought that NY Times piece was a rare piece of good news.
grim
I see people taking potshots at the New York Times. You can really see their point. Over the last few years they have lost some credibility almost across the board. However, when it comes to any real estate related article, it may as well be published by the NAR. They has sunk that low in their value.
Realize, they are a troubled business, and are compromising their standards, concerns about bias aside.
"There's a first time for everything."
This decline isn't the first, as BC Bob illustrated.
CF, the NY Times got caught this week staging photos for HizbAllah:
http://powerlineblog.com/archives/014951.php
There are many examples like this from the NY Times, but this is just the latest.
Unrealtor,
Do you consider this guy's opinion to be proof that this was staged? Has the possibility crossed your mind that your source is propaganda? Was the rubble in the background staged as well?
At least the times printed a correction about their error in captioning, which is an accepted journalistic practice.
ny times is finished in its
current form.
readers are jumping faster than
fast.
can you say internet
www.mediamatters.org
BC Bob & SAS are two very cool posters if you ask me. They always have a way with words that mirrors what I am seeing in the world and that helps me support my gut instincts about this market. Well, if I (we) are wrong about the market, then I guess I will be out a few rental $$, but since I am still saving (35%) of my pretax income, I think renting will still let me come out okay, no?
Thanks again guys for your unique perspectives and helping me stay the course!!
"Don't throw a slam dunk at us, give us an example of a info technology firm or a manufacturing firm relocating from the southeast or midwest into Jersey. Don't spend too much time looking because you will be run over by the freight train leaving."
Look around, you will see tech firms and manufacturing firm out sourcing to other countries too, and they have been doing it for the last 10 years.
Does that mean our country is going down the tube?
Why is that 90% of the ppl on this blog are so negative. I think ppl need to start taking anti-depression drugs is they have been on here for long enough. :)
Anonymous said...
BC Bob & SAS are two very cool posters if you ask me
Anon,
Thanks for your kind words. All I try to do is explain what I see/have seen. I am sure that 95% of the readers/posters understand what I am saying. To those other 5%, what can I say?? Some of my posts are lenghty. However, I try to explain in specifics/not in theory. If I wrote in one sentence paragraphs, my post would take up 5 pages.
I just hope that jb read my post regarding the monkeys. I tried to be a little more clear with that one!!!!!!
BC Bob
I find MediaMatters consistently dishonest in their "analysis."
They're not an objective source at all (it's fine to have an agenda, but you have to be honest and factual to suport that agenda).
unrealtor--can you back up your statement with an example or two of how media matters has been dishonest in its analysis? Otherwise, your conclusory statement is meaningless.
"Do you consider this guy's opinion to be proof that this was staged?"
No, I consider the NY Times photo proof the photo was staged. The guy crawled under some wire, and is holding his hat, look at the photo.
"Has the possibility crossed your mind that your source is propaganda?"
The "source" is the NY Times. The content is HizbAllah propaganda, absolutely.
"Was the rubble in the background staged as well?"
Straw men need not apply.
"At least the times printed a correction about their error in captioning, which is an accepted journalistic practice."
The "correction" was just more dishonesty from the Times -- the problem wasn't the photo caption, but that the photographer was taking photos of a guy playing dead.
Their "correction" should have stated: "We apologize our photojournalist created HizbAllah propaganda by taking and distributing for publication photos of a man obviously playing dead. Our editors also apologize for not catching the problem photo sooner. Our photojournalist has been fired."
That's the only acceptable correction, the caption text is a side issue.
1) Media Matters was created by David Brock.
2) Their mission statement describes it as a "progressive research and information center dedicated to comprehensively monitoring, analyzing and correcting conservative misinformation in the U.S. media."
3) Media Matters employees have previously worked for the presidential campaigns of Al Gore, John Edwards, Wesley Clark, as well as for the National Organization for Women, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Democratic National Committee, the Alliance for Justice, and Greenpeace, and receive significant funding from pro-Democratic foundations.
Not exactly a "fair and balanced" group.
unrealtor:
you didn't respond to the question. All you have done is identified who operates media matters
You said they were dishonest in their analysis. I asked for an example or two. Telling me who runs media matters is not responsive. The fact that the cite has an agenda does ipso facto make their analysis dishonest.
Again, can you cite one or two examples of dishonest analysis from media matters in support of your prior contention.
Does that mean our country is going down the tube?
8/11/2006 02:40:17 PM
Go look at a chart of the Dollar index. Maybe this tells us what the rest of the financial world thinks of us???
The world knows that they can't beat us militarily. They have taken it one step better. They are kicking our economic ass. Tell me what the trade deficit is telling you??? There are too many $'s circulating throughout the world, chasing goods and services. We have gone from a producing nation (our parents) to a consuming nation. The young people around the world are eager to take this to us. Pay attention to what is happening in the world, not your little oasis.
To be clearer, the present state of the dollar and our trade deficit answers your question.
BC Bob
Unrealtor,
I never said it was centrist. But it does correct the distortions and outright lies coming from Fox News, and the wingnuts and their ilk.
BTW crooksandliars is a more entertaining source for the same. Lots of daily show clips.
Jayb,
This will be my last post regarding your thoughts. Your perception, as in the case of many films is unrealistic. The last thing I would be good at would be a "radio show host". You don't need a PHD in finance/economics to undersatnd what is happening in today's RE market. They don't teach you this in school, it is real life. However, since you reads things like a "filmmaker", consider this market to be the Titanic!!!!! Simple enough???
By the way, SAS would be better at it than me!!!!
BC Bob
Jayb,
In get it now. By the way, to clarify things, I am not BOOOOOYAAAAA Bob. I am BC Bob, two different people. I guess you need a PHD to make that distinction.
Something to bring to realtor's class this weekend. Which do you think is easier, selling one tall cold beer to 10 thirsty individuals in the desert or selling 10 frozen ice pops to one eskimo in the frozen tundra of the artic???
That simply sums up a comparison of 2002-2005 and 2006. Quite simple. Please bring that into your office and present us with your feedback.
BC Bob
jayb,
One other thing, before you start labelling people and making accusations make sure you are talking about the right person. This is a great lesson to learn before you embark on your career. Sometimes it is better to shut up and listen. God gave us 2 ears and one mouth, maybe there is some underlying message there.
Every post that I have placed on this site will indicate that I don't speak in one sentence paragraphs and rarely capitalize, unless it is required to make a specific thought.
SAS must be loving this one!!!!!!!
BC Bob
Thread closed!
grim
<< Home