Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Northern New Jersey Weekly Inventory Update

GSMLS - http://www.gsmls.com
(Garden State Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)


8/2 - 18,643
8/9 - 18,605 (0.2% Decrease)


NJMLS - http://www.njmls.com
(New Jersey Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)


8/2 - 9,201
8/9 - 9,228 (0.3% Increase)


MLSGuide - http://www.mlsguide.com
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)


8/2 - 2,714
8/9 - 2,660 (2% Decrease)

48 Comments:

Blogger thatbigwindow said...

oh noes!! the inventory is decreasing...

hurry up and buy before this buyers market turns back into a sellers market and prices reach for the stars!!

They aren't building anymore land people!! Interest rates are still at historically low levels too. Buy BUY BUY!!!

8/09/2006 02:36:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

I hope new readers don't misinterpret your sarcasm...

grim

8/09/2006 02:38:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

all kidding aside, i'm still seeing houses in the top towns selling briskly. sure inventory has built up but the stuff sitting is extremely overpriced even for this market and/or it's crap. the halfway decent properties are still selling near peak. this is important for people to understand as there are still buyers out there willing to purchase even at these nosebleed prices. dreams of 30-40% price drops in 12 months are pure fantasy IMO.

8/09/2006 02:41:00 PM  
Blogger thatbigwindow said...

grim said...
I hope new readers don't misinterpret your sarcasm...



Just getting to it before Lehrer starts shouting it... :)

8/09/2006 02:47:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

I'd have to disagree Richard. This house has been on the market a long time, yet is "priced to sell":

http://realtor.com/Prop/1058571920

Nice location, 1/3 acre, built-in pool.

No Greater Fools in sight. Very few deals are happening in the "top towns" I watch, such as this one.

The number of withdrawals and relistings at lower prices is staggering though.

And the houses continue to sit.

8/09/2006 02:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anyone else notice that gsmls.com redesigned their public website? Listings are now sorted by price instead of MLS number, which makes it very difficult to see what new properties have been added without looking through the whole list.

Maybe they're hoping to help stale properties move, and camouflage all the daily new listings?

8/09/2006 02:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just getting to it before Lehrer starts shouting it... :)


You mean Lereah, right? Lehrer's not much of a shouter... :)

8/09/2006 03:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

HAHAHAHA!!!!!!

INVENTORY IS DECREASING!

HAHAHAHA!!!!

GOOD TIME TO BUY AND BE A "FOOL"

FOOL SALE SIGNS ALL OVER..GLUTS OF THEM!

8/09/2006 03:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Builder: Oversupply slump worst in 40 years
Toll Brothers slashes outlook on new homes as orders plunge and revenue misses forecasts.

http://tinyurl.com/ry43q

8/09/2006 03:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

GO AHEAD AND BUY....FOOL!

I KNOW I KNOW REAL ESTATE IS THE GREATEST ASSET CLASS ON THE FACE OF THIS EARTH!

NOT NOW!

8/09/2006 03:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Guess things aren't completely dead.

Friends of mine just sold their house in a small bidding war. Two weeks of no lookers changed into two very qualified buyers both meeting the asking price of $520,000. They bought this Hillsbough house 30 months ago for $330,000. Put in about $50,000 in remolding, deck, patio, finished basement, etc. Well they sold it for $526,200.

The house their now buying will cost $910,000. They bid on it a month ago, contingent upon the sale their Hillsbough home. Closing is scheduled for both in Sept. The asking price of the new purchase was 1,100,000 then marked down to $ 980,000.

8/09/2006 03:17:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Grim,

Is it possible to see inventory statistics for previous years (even if less detailed)? I would be interested to see the normal pattern over the course of the year. I'm guessing lots on inventory comes on in the spring, but does it typically get "burned off" during the prime selling months? What normally happens in the fall? Do most people keep listings active or do many people pull them back and wait for next spring (like last year).

8/09/2006 03:20:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

unrealtor, on the flip side look at these mls's that sat on the market a few weeks but are under contract at very close to asking price (i know this for a fact). people are still spending ridiculous sums.

# 2298194
# 2295916
# 2285720

8/09/2006 03:26:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

unrealtor, i think the market up to $650k is doing better than the $650k-$1 million range. if you don't have equity from a prior residence it'll be tough to come up with the cash to buy these higher priced properties. on the other hand a $600k property with $7k in taxes will cost you $3300 a month with a traditional 30-year fixed and that's doable for a 2 income household.

8/09/2006 03:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A few more months of steady decrease and this will signal that the housing market has stabilized. No bubble. Sorry.

IMHO

8/09/2006 03:29:00 PM  
Blogger RentinginNJ said...

Guess things aren't completely dead.
Friends of mine just sold their house in a small bidding war.


A good number of people just aren’t paying attention to the market. I still know people who refer to the market at “hot”. But then again, I also know someone who still wears Cavaricci’s and thinks they are still in style.

I wish I had a dime for every story I hear about someone buying a house, thinking their house will sell very quickly, but then get stuck paying for 2 houses.

8/09/2006 03:34:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"The house their now buying will cost $910,000."


How much did that owner pay, $526K?

See: taxrecords.com

Moving up to a new house now is a poor financial move. If they had waited, the difference in price between their current house and the "move up" house, would be much smaller.

For example, if prices drop 15%, they would have saved $59,000.

If a 20% drop, $79,000.

A 25% drop, $98,000.

Etc...

8/09/2006 03:36:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Anonymous said...
Guess things aren't completely dead.

Friends of mine just sold their house in a small bidding war. Two weeks of no lookers changed into two very qualified buyers both meeting the asking price of $520,000. They bought this Hillsbough house 30 months ago for $330,000. Put in about $50,000 in remolding, deck, patio, finished basement, etc. Well they sold it for $526,200.

The house their now buying will cost $910,000. They bid on it a month ago, contingent upon the sale their Hillsbough home. Closing is scheduled for both in Sept. The asking price of the new purchase was 1,100,000 then marked down to $ 980,000.
8/09/2006 04:17:00 PM

Well they managed a 20% lowball on a $1M+ asking price - not bad.

Time will judge whether they should have sit tight in old home.

8/09/2006 03:40:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Anonymous said...
A few more months of steady decrease and this will signal that the housing market has stabilized. No bubble. Sorry.
IMHO
8/09/2006 04:29:38 PM

No commissions in August? Sorry.

8/09/2006 03:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unrealtor,
You're probably right, but I'm sure these people wouldn't be convinced and I'm not going to be the one to rain on their parade now.
If things do go bad, atleast they are young enough to wait things out for a recovery.

8/09/2006 03:47:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"on the other hand a $600k property with $7k in taxes will cost you $3300 a month with a traditional 30-year fixed and that's doable for a 2 income household."


Yes, I was going to mention that those houses are at least 'doable' for many people.

I've seen a dramatic shift in the market since last year, though, in zips which cover the $700K - $2M range.

Towards the higher end $1.5M+, some people have so much money they don't care about losing a few hundred K, so a few properties move.

But other high end deals in that range have also dropped back on the market after being "under contract" for weeks. So apparently some with deep pockets DO care about losing a few hundred K.

In general, it's a ghost town, with hundreds of realtors scrambling for the same 5-6 deals.

8/09/2006 03:49:00 PM  
Blogger RichinNorthnj said...

For the curious in Bergen County, here are the number of residential SFH listings NOT including condos & co-ops from NJMLS

03/03 3,132
03/10 3,230
03/17 3,337
03/23 3,432
03/30 3,543

04/05 3,628
04/12 3,706
04/19 3,781
04/24 3,856

05/08 4,082
05/15 4,174
05/22 4,292
05/29 4,352

06/05 4,382
06/12 4,353
06/19 4,526
06/26 4,588

07/05 4,550
07/12 4,613
07/19 4,604
07/26 4,623

08/02 4,562
As of today 08/09: 4,577
Last year: 3,207

Pretty flat if you ask me. I predict up again after August, around mid-September.

8/09/2006 03:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Guess things aren't completely dead."

Yeah, I guess the realtor who called me last week, returning my call from 2003, is so anxious to assist me that he decided to ignore all the buyers lined up in his office. He'll let them wait while he digs up old leads from 2003.

BC Bob

8/09/2006 03:56:00 PM  
Blogger delford said...

richard: I am following so called top towns in Bergen county, and I am not seeing anything msell, and it has been months now.

in cases where houses are selling, one would not know the actual sales price until the deal closes, (unless you can get a realtor to tell you ) so if you are seeing something sell today, you would not know the actual sales price until the close.

As far as the 30 to 40% drops in 12 months, I agree that that might be pushing it, but 20% declines are in my opinion in the bag over the next 6 to 12 months.

The 30 to 40% drops are probably 2 years out, and the old advice of buy real estate only when nobody else wants it will be the case in the next two years.

Meanwhile our beloved state continues its rapid decline.

8/09/2006 03:57:00 PM  
Blogger RichinNorthnj said...

Cavaricci’s are out?

...damn.

What about Capezio's. They're really comfortable!

Don't tell me I need to buy new jeans AND shoes.

8/09/2006 03:57:00 PM  
Blogger BergenBuyer said...

Was the home for $526 already competitively priced for today's market and reduced compared to 2005 prices?

There are a few diff lines of thinking out there, here are a few:
1- Those that think there is no bubble and think next year's prices will be higher.
2- Those that think today's prices are as low as they're going to go.
3- Those that think it could go lower, but feel the need to buy now because they want to move before the summer is over.
4- Those that think this market is going down hard in the next few years and wouldn't consider buying until it hits bottom.

There's many in between and throw in some other variables like maybe a "top town" is less susceptible than other towns. Some here will disagree now, but when the dust settles, I'm sure we'll see that not every town experienced the exact same price decline off of 2005 comparables.

There will always be "top towns" "top streets" etc. and people will be willing to pay a premium for this. Maybe that $526 house is one of those examples. Maybe it's not and they just got lucky with two bidders that were both Group 1-3 thinkers.

If you have your eye on a dream house that you know a lot of other people are interested in, that house probably won't last. With all the group 1-3 thinkers out there, there is too high a probability that it will be sold to one of them for a reasonable price.

8/09/2006 03:59:00 PM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

the glut in the so-called high end is hard to miss. 12-24 months supply in many areas. even realtors admit there's a glut. what they don't seem to understand is that it will take serious price cuts to move these properties. then you have the "high end" competing with the mid tier. suddenly, these "affordable" 600k properties don't look so appetizing.

8/09/2006 04:00:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BC Bob,
I didn't say things were up and selling like last year,
just that there are apparently still some deals being made.
Bill

8/09/2006 04:02:00 PM  
Blogger delford said...

Youa re seeing delistings now as the summer comes to an end, many of these will be back in Spetember, for one last try before the holidays.

8/09/2006 04:05:00 PM  
Blogger delford said...

bergenbuyer; Too bad we are not in a top state,a nd as far as top Bergen Co towns, that number in my opinion has been and will continute to decline over the next couple of years.

8/09/2006 04:08:00 PM  
Blogger BergenBuyer said...

Richard,

I'm following "top towns" in Bergen as well and I'm not seeing any movement either. I keep my eye on $500-$1M. A lot of the same houses I saw in January are still for sale today. Of course houses have sold, but more have been listed.

If you really want to get a deal, you're going to have to wait this out and wait for the people that are desperate to sell. Luckily that number should be high as supply far exceeds demand today and I don't see supply dropping anytime soon once ARM's start resetting. The only reduction in inventory that won't be due to price cuts will be from the folks that were fishing for a price and don't "need" to sell. You'll see those houses pulled off the market in Sept.

Even once an ARM resets it won't immediately become available to buy, you have to figure at least 6 months from the time that the mortgage resets while the homeowner tries to make the payment, then starts to be delinquent and then finally is forced to sell.

8/09/2006 04:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ridgewood NJMLS: 2540475
OLP: $699,000 12/2005
LLP: $550,000 6/2006
Sold: $495,000

8/09/2006 04:17:00 PM  
Blogger BergenBuyer said...

Like delford said, you probably won't see 40% in the next 12 mos. but I see it as a possibility in 2 years.

A lot of the houses I'm watching are already 15-20% off 2005 prices and no one's touched them. Most realtors are begging me to make an offer. When I offer 40% off, they laugh like I'm an a-hole. I tell them fine, don't accept my offer, accept one of the other offers you've received. Oh that's right, I'm the only offer you've received, I guess I'll continue to see this house for sale until your seller gets realistic.

8/09/2006 04:18:00 PM  
Blogger delford said...

Move to River Edge, prices never go down, the schools ar the best, ina ll of Bergen county, the town is bubble proof. Its the best.

8/09/2006 04:35:00 PM  
Blogger NJGal said...

"If you have your eye on a dream house that you know a lot of other people are interested in, that house probably won't last."

Just out of curiosity, for those who've been playing thia real estate game for a while, is this kind of thing typical even in a normal "buyer's" market? I feel like the bidding wars on top houses might be part of an interesting hangover resulting from the psychology of the low inventory of the past few years. But you would all know better than I....

8/09/2006 04:38:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"Most realtors are begging me to make an offer. When I offer 40% off, they laugh like I'm an a-hole. I tell them fine, don't accept my offer, accept one of the other offers you've received. Oh that's right, I'm the only offer you've received, I guess I'll continue to see this house for sale until your seller gets realistic."


Inspiring. Haven't made a "lowball" yet, but may at some point.

8/09/2006 04:47:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

RE: "dream house"

There's always another one to come along.

Every few months I say, "This one is perfect!," and then up pops another, nicer house, in a better location.

8/09/2006 04:49:00 PM  
Blogger Rich52 said...

Friends of mine just sold their house in a small bidding war. Two weeks of no lookers changed into two very qualified buyers both meeting the asking price of $520,000. They bought this Hillsbough house 30 months ago for $330,000. Put in about $50,000 in remolding, deck, patio, finished basement, etc. Well they sold it for $526,200.

The house their now buying will cost $910,000.


Looks like your friend bought in early 04 so they made out good. From the numbers you give it looks like they made around $150k minus carrying costs during the housing boom years.

However, how much off a potential loss can they take on a $900k+ home on during a housing downturn. Much more than $150k I believe. Very risky to be sinking most if not all of your wealth in a depreciating asset today.

8/09/2006 04:50:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

"Dream house"

What an amazingly powerful psychological tool. The very words inspire a kind of pseudo-reality Barbie-Inspired dream sequence. I'm sure many a husband or wife was "inspired" to overpay by the very thought of it.



Use your heart to pick your spouse, use your brain to pick a house.



grim

8/09/2006 05:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

delford said...
Move to River Edge, prices never go down, the schools ar the best, ina ll of Bergen county, the town is bubble proof. Its the best.

8/09/2006 05:35:16 PM

Give me a break.
Bergen County my tink thet are, but it is no different then anyplace else.

8/09/2006 05:05:00 PM  
Blogger delford said...

anon: I was being sarcastic, but many people in River Edge believe that River Edge is truly different they really do,an believe me when the reality sets in that it is not, its gonna get ugly.

8/09/2006 06:05:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There was a big drop in inventory yesterday which made up for most of that 2% decrease. I guess the buyers were scared by the potential of Fed raising interest rates again. I'm not bothered about 1 day drop in inventory. We have to see what happens in the next couple of weeks before the school year start.

8/09/2006 06:12:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Many here are radically underestimating the time it takes for the housing market to react.

The housing market is not measured in days and weeks.. Not even months.

grim

8/09/2006 06:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim,

This is the formula I used to pick my spouse:
(my age/2)+(smooth skin)=SAS's wife

Anyone...feel free to use my formula to pick your next spouse.

For the ladies, here is your formula:

(current salary x 10)= husband

Now, those are the true formulas to a happy marriage.

;)
SAS

8/09/2006 06:27:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

And here is how you select the house you can afford..

Mortgage Amt = Current Salary x 2

grim

8/09/2006 07:00:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

my goodness, whats so special
about riveredge?

heres a few better towns:Closter,
Norwood, Demarest,Harrington Park,

what are they kidding overtheir?

and don't give me that crap about
the DELL, Northern Valley, at OT
and Demarest beats hands down.

Although the teachers at the Dell
earn more and work less.

8/09/2006 07:08:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

CNN: Housing glut worst in 40 years

"Homebuilder Toll Brothers said the current slump in residential construction is unlike any it has seen in 40 years as it became the latest to warn of a glut in new homes for sale and a slowdown in the closely watched real estate market."

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/09/news/companies/toll_brothers/

http://tinyurl.com/p8tfg

8/09/2006 08:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I desperately want it to be but it's really not totally dead yet. In Whippany, three houses sold recently for asking price. They were on the market for ages but I guess the sellers' holding out worked for them. Two of them sold for mid-$400s (should have been low $300s) and one for over a million. This million-dollar home is indeed lovely, but it's on a lot the size of a postage stamp next to a bunch of crappy bungalow houses. Doesn't fit the neighborhood at all.

However, since over 50 kids in town were arrested last week for drugs and two girls just died of heroin overdoses in the past two months, perhaps that will bring the property values down. But our resident real estate agent doesn't think so - she even said in her online blog that even after the arrests, she's getting more real estate calls than she has in a while!

8/09/2006 08:44:00 PM  

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