Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Northern New Jersey Weekly Inventory Update

GSMLS - http://www.gsmls.com
(Garden State Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)

8/23 - 18,720
8/30 - 18,743 (0.1% Increase)


NJMLS - http://www.njmls.com

(New Jersey Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)

8/23 - 9,165
8/30 - 9,170 (0.1% Increase)


MLSGuide - http://www.mlsguide.com
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)

8/23 - 2,676
8/30 - 2,661 (0.6% Decrease)

31 Comments:

Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

For the curious in Bergen County, here is the number of active residential SFH listings; this does NOT include Condos/Co-ops & Twnhs.

03/03 3,132
03/10 3,230
03/17 3,337
03/23 3,432
03/30 3,543

04/05 3,628
04/12 3,706
04/19 3,781
04/24 3,856

05/08 4,082
05/15 4,174
05/22 4,292
05/29 4,352

06/05 4,382
06/12 4,353
06/19 4,526
06/26 4,588

07/05 4,550
07/12 4,613
07/19 4,604
07/26 4,623

08/02 4,562
08/09 4,577 3,207
08/16 4,574 3,187
08/23 4,546 3,182
As of today 08/30: 4,505 Last year: 3,210

8/30/2006 12:16:00 PM  
Blogger thatbigwindow said...

only a 1300 difference...seems like inventory is normalized for this time of year, no?

8/30/2006 12:20:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Only if you consider a 40% YOY change normal..

grim

8/30/2006 12:33:00 PM  
Blogger jm said...

Just came across this site, wow... What great information and dialogue.

I'd like your thoughts if possible please....

Found a house in Wayne NJ that I like. OLP was 1.4 in April, dropped to 1.3 one month later, dropped to 1.2 two months later. Can possibly get it just under 1 (avoiding additional 1% tax). About 5,000 sq ft, Taxes 22,500. Thoughts on will there be buyers out there when I go to sell in 7-8 years? Who would they be? Current owners bought in 03 for 1,025 have moved out to FL and will be selling at loss. Owner in 86 bought for 300k. Has it appreciated too much in 20yrs?

I'm concerned about additional drops to come in current market. I lived through the 89-96 dip and what a "grim" time owning back then was.

Any insights or comments appreciated, this is a huge decision for us. Thanks.

8/30/2006 12:59:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

only a 1300 difference...seems like inventory is normalized for this time of year, no?

Remember, the numbers I posted are for Bergen County, Single Family Houses ONLY (as that is what I'm interested in).

Here are the inventory numbers for Bergen County SFH, Condos, Co-ops and Townhouses

Today, 08/30: 6,359
Last year, 08/30: 4,271

I do think that a lot of inventory is being pulled and may be introduced in the Fall. And then there are those that do not actually need to sell.
We'll see soon enough.

(I have to find time to track and compare withdrawals historically.)

Rich

8/30/2006 01:25:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Okay, here are the number of "units" withdrawn for Bergen County SFH, Condos, Co-ops and Townhouses

08/1-30/2006: 542
08/1-30/2005: 288

Make your own assumptions.

(I think we'll see some of them back in the Fall!)

8/30/2006 01:30:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

It's fascinating to watch the current inventory evolve as Greedy Grubber sellers drop prices.

I've been watching the same 30 houses for months, and many that had been at the top of the price range, are now in middle to bottom.

The houses that were my "top three" two months ago, are no longer my top three, because so many houses have dropped in prices.

Indeed, each passing week brings more surprises and good news, and we're only months into the downturn.

We'll see what 2007/2008 brings, but as this historic price chart indicates, prices have nowhere to go but down, and by A LOT:

http://tinyurl.com/e4so5

Now, who's the next seller to ask an Insulting Price?

8/30/2006 01:50:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

My guess is that there are many of us who are interested in a particular community or handful of towns in NNJ and we are therefore following a set number of houses. Let's share what we have seen in between grim's price reduction updates. I will start. MLS 2314042 is now listed at 895k. Last week it was 919. Special note, they took down the original listing so this is now up with a completely different MLS #. How does grim follow those over the long run???

8/30/2006 02:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is the first real estate bust where buyers and sellers have more data access (if not complete data) due to the internet. How do you all think this will affect the outcome of this downturn and the eventual return to normalcy?

-Seneca

8/30/2006 02:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

could someone tell me what a listing showing A* as its status means? A =Active but what does the * indicate? This house has been on the market for a while.

8/30/2006 02:42:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

An A* means the listing is in "Attorney Review."

The status will remain that way either a few days, or right up intil the house closes.

They have a new code "UC" which means "Under Contract," but some listings are never flagged as UC, and remain as "A*" until closing.

8/30/2006 02:47:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

A* means that the seller has accepted an offer but the deal is in attorney review

8/30/2006 02:47:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

"How do you all think this will affect the outcome of this downturn and the eventual return to normalcy?"


A good bet is that it will speed the decline.

This is the first housing bust where the average consumer has access to source data, and 'information exchange' with people across the state, country, and world.

8/30/2006 02:49:00 PM  
Anonymous UnRealtor said...

Got you by 16 seconds rich. :)

8/30/2006 02:50:00 PM  
Blogger RichInNorthNJ said...

Damn!

The one time I had an answer!

8/30/2006 02:52:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

From Marketwatch:

Lacker says Fed 'not out of the woods yet' on inflation

The Fed's battle against inflation isn't over despite slightly better price data in July, said Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker. Lacker was the sole dissenter in the FOMC's Aug. 8 vote to pause after 17 straight rate hikes. Lacker said he would make up his mind closer to the next FOMC meeting on Sept. 20 but added that no data since the meeting has changed his mind that another rate hike is needed. Lacker said he did not think that weaker growth "by itself" would bring inflation down. On one side, there is a view at the Fed that hopes flattening energy prices over the near term would reduce upward pressure on core inflation, he said. "I was in the camp of thinking we needed to raise rates to make sure inflation comes down," Lacker said in a television interview.

8/30/2006 02:52:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

milld being sued.

oh, well

8/30/2006 02:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

thatbigwindow said...
only a 1300 difference...seems like inventory is normalized for this time of year, no?

8/30/2006 01:20:52 PM

David is that you?

LEREAH! Hey!

8/30/2006 03:24:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

31,892 on GSMLS after sitting in the 31,700's for a week or two. might be the last gasp of sellers hoping to unload before the winter dead season sets in. do i hear 32,000 within a week?

8/30/2006 03:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim-

Has anyone ever taken a stab at the FSBO numbers? I don't know how exactly it could be done besides looking at a very specific area and following it religiously.

My guess is there are more FSBO's than in the past and we may be only seeing part of the picture.

JM

8/30/2006 03:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

2086901 in Blairstown
OLP: $1,150,000 reduced to $989,500

Withdrawn and Relisted as 2306080 at $799,900.

That's a reduction of $350K --over a 30% haircut!

--dg

8/30/2006 04:19:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

...and still overpriced. $1.15 million was a dream.

grim

8/30/2006 04:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Somerset : Franklin Township has seen significant drops.

From 350K dropped to 300K an some less than that.

Edison Middlesex : Droping slowly,gradually but surely.

KBR

8/30/2006 04:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah, JM- I tried. Following FSBO data "religiously" isn't the word...it's more like following FSBO data "chaotically."

I checked Helpusell.com and a couple others, based on the company names on the FSBO signs, but it was difficult to pick up changes each week. Some sites keep all inventory on there, even sold.

Now, I just count the signs around town as I drive around, and look up the house pricing.

When the house doesn't sell after a few months, and they switch to mls (new sign), I note it on a file I keep.

Maybe somebody else knows how to pick up the switch.

Pat

8/30/2006 04:58:00 PM  
Blogger Rich52 said...

Somerset : Franklin Township has seen significant drops.

From 350K dropped to 300K an some less than that.


Could that be from the fast rise of property taxes in Somerset county the past few years?

8/30/2006 06:16:00 PM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

not NJ, but I've been watching this house for a while:

http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1066523964

last August, this place was $1.25M.

Dropped it to $1.05M around April this year.

Then dropped it to $995,000 in June. Latest price drop came this month (Aug) to $949,000.

Been on the market 1 yr and $300,000 price drop so far.

Too little, to late. These people will chase the market all the way to the bottom. Place looks like a $600,000 house to me, max. It's a shame for them because they probably could've sold it for close to $1M last year. Just got too greedy and missed the boat

8/30/2006 06:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So0me one wins some one losses in each transaction. Sellers will be losing more often in the future.

Who wants to buy a depreciating asset?

8/30/2006 07:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Skeptic,

We are looking in westchester too; in eastchester/tuckahoe/bronxville/
scarsdale area.

Any thoughts on how much homes are overpriced in this area?

thanks

8/30/2006 07:30:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Anonymous 8/30/2006 08:30:10 PM said...

Hi Skeptic,

We are looking in westchester too; in eastchester/tuckahoe/bronxville/
scarsdale area.

Any thoughts on how much homes are overpriced in this area?

thanks


Hi Anon 8/30/2006 08:30:10 PM:

I was looking to buy Google stock.

Any thoughts on how much Google stock is overpriced?

thanks

Editor's Note: chicago being a wisenheimer - not a solicitation to buy/sell/regurgitate securities etc. :-P

8/30/2006 11:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pat-

Interesting. I can't believe you are alone. What's probably happening is the people focused enough to keep track are looking at a small number of markets and just looking at things anecdotally.

Given that, what's your feel for FSBO. Are people shifting from that to MLS or vice versa? It will be interesting to see what happens when people have to drop their asking prices and still pay fees and commissions to realtors. On the other hand, many sellers trying FSBO have to start getting nervous when their houses sit for a long period with no offers.

Hmmm...would love to hear any other opinions, anecdotes, figures any shape/form on this...

JM

8/31/2006 08:18:00 AM  
Blogger Rich52 said...

JM,

I've seen a number of houses that were FSBO, then listed with agents. Even after listing with price reductions those properties continue to sit.

Here's one, MLS ID:615832

Owner attempted to FSBO for $619k. Listed it with an agent for 609k, currently listed for 569K.

Not sure how long he had FSBO before listing with an agent.

8/31/2006 09:21:00 AM  

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