Personal Savings Rate Falls To -0.9%
From Bloomberg:
U.S. July Personal Spending Rises 0.8%; Core Prices Up 0.1%
U.S. July Personal Spending Rises 0.8%; Core Prices Up 0.1%
Consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.8 percent last month, the most since January, and a measure of inflation posted the smallest gain of the year.
The rise in spending followed a 0.4 percent June increase, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose a smaller-than-expected 0.1 percent last month.
...
The report's price gauge tied to spending patterns and excluding food and energy costs increased 2.4 percent from July 2005, a year-over-year gain last exceeded in April 1995.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is among policy makers who have said they would be more comfortable with a 1 percent to 2 percent increase in the measure over a 12-month period.
...
Because the increase in spending was larger than the gain in incomes, the savings rate fell to minus 0.9 percent, from minus 0.7 percent in June. The rate has been negative for 16 straight months, indicating consumers are dipping into savings to maintain spending.
...
``The long-awaited housing-market correction is upon us and indications are that it is not going to be quite as orderly as many, including the Fed, are predicting,'' said economists Sheryl King and Claudia Lokody in an Aug. 25 report to clients. The slump in housing ``has the potential to pull consumer spending to the brink in early 2007.''
A drop in home prices would prevent consumers from tapping into home equity as a source of extra spending money, King and Lokody said. The slump in construction will also ripple through other areas of the economy, dragging down employment, they said.
44 Comments:
At lunch yesterday, this guy I work with said people are just jealous because they can't afford to live here and it's all sour grapes. He said most people are "Bergen Wannabes". He lives in Ridgewood. I bit my tongue and said nothing. I finished my lunch and went back to my cubicle....quickly.
The full release can be found here:
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: JULY 2006 (PDF)
Doesn't seem like there has been much of a pullback of inflation, from the above release:
Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.3 percent in July, compared
with an increase of 0.4 percent in June.
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.5 percent in July, compared
with an increase of 0.3 percent in June. Purchases of durable goods increased 1.6 percent, compared
with an increase of 1.0 percent. Purchases of motor vehicles and parts accounted for most of the
increases in July and in June. Purchases of nondurable goods increased 0.4 percent in July,
compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in June. Purchases of services increased 0.4 percent,
compared with an increase of 0.1 percent.
PCE price index -- The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent in July, compared with an
increase of 0.1 percent in June. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1
percent, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent.
Spending continues to outpace gains in income. The spending/income spread is now negative for 16 straight months!!!!! The cc's and hel's are on fire. But this time it is different!!!!!!!
BC Bob
Personal Savings Rate has been negative for 16 straight months.
grim
Youngblood thinks residential real estate is a lot stronger than most people suspect. He bases his assessment on a new economic model he created that forecasts housing prices in 379 metropolitan areas (MSAs). I interviewed him back in early May when he first introduced his econometric model and he has recently re-estimated that model. The key points of his most recent report are:
• Housing prices will rise in each of the next four quarters, but by progressively slower rates year over year: 7.1% in 2Q 2006; 5.7% in 3Q 2006; 4.4% in 4Q 2006 and 3.5% in 1Q 2007.
• MSAs with fastest year-over-year gains in 1Q 2006 will continue to rise. Those cities include Phoenix, Az (34% expected rise in 1Q 2007) and Naples, Fla. (51% expected rise in 1Q 2007).
• California market will have continued rising house prices with a median year-over-year rate of 24.1% in 1Q 2007.
• Ten of the largest MSAs will continue to rises in housing prices: 17.5% in New York City; 26.7% in Los Angeles, Ca.; 4.9% in Chicago; 3.9% in Houston; and 4.8% in Atlanta, Ga.
• House prices will fall in increasingly numbers of MSAs: four in 2Q 2006; 10 in 3Q 2006; 28 in 4Q 2006 and 24 in 1Q 2007 where they should fall by a median of 1.3% year over year. Of those 24 MSAs, 17 are located in the rust belt, cotton belt and farm belt.
• Only five of the largest 100 MSAs (St Louis, Mo., Pittsburg, Columbia, SC, Little Rock, Charleston, SC) will see a fall in housing prices year over year in 1Q 2007.
• Only Honolulu, Ha. Which is experiencing a house price bubble, will see a fall in prices in 1Q 2007, whereas the other 73 MSAs with bubbles should rise by a median year-over-year rate of 19.6%.
But retailers has another great month and people seem to be spending huge amounts of money on fall clothing at full price.
The average budget for fall clothing probably will be about $10,000 per household thru the end of the year + another $20,000 for the holidays..
It is amazing how people will sacrifice health care, investing, and be renters forever in some overpriced apartment just to wear the 'right' fashions.
thatbigwindow,
I don't know but I'd venture to guess it wasn't in the last 5 years.
I live in an apt. complex & the other day got my neighbor's boyfriend Discover bill by mistake.
Now they look like they were raking in the $$$. A sport coupe Mercedes & a huge Range Rover, both no more than 2 yrs old.
Discover Bill 10K+, minimum payment due over $1400. Fee for over limit & non-payment/late fee + notice of account priviliges suspension. Interest charged $280+, last charge approved - $79 for gas......
So they really were not making the money. All it was is that they got very, VERY big loans someway or another, trying to live lie they were making $250K+ a year, when they are probably making less than 100K.
Here is your negative personal savings number issue.
From today's Wall Street Journal:
Full House
By KARL E. CASE and ROBERT J. SHILLER
August 30, 2006; Page A10
Looking back at past housing booms, the first sign of the end is when a goodly share of buyers stop making offers and eventually stop looking, seeming to just disappear. In the spring of 1987, during another U.S. housing-market boom that was starting to lose speed, Nora Moran, president of the Greater Boston real estate board, said "someone blew a whistle that only dogs and buyers heard."
Across America today, it is as if the whistle has again been blown.
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/article_print/SB115688653772648766-lMyQjAxMDE2NTM2MDgzODA2Wj.html
As long as the Remittances continue
to Mexico whats the diff.
Remittances are surging. From
the US to Mexico about $13 Billion
as of the latest figures available.
Its second only to their petroleum
export revenues.
Anonymous said...
"So they really were not making the money. All it was is that they got very, VERY big loans someway or another, trying to live lie they were making $250K+ a year, when they are probably making less than 100K."
This is probably more prevalent than we can imagine.
I wonder if anyone that is forced to foreclose knows the potential consequences if they either took out a HEL or refinanced. If this occurred there is a good chance it is a recourse loan. The lending institution can get very aggressive, not to mention IRS implications. Say a homeowner refinaced a property with a 500k mortgage and went into foreclosure, the property is then sold for 400k by the lending institution. The lending institution can come after your hummer, flat sreen, even take your $300 jeans right off your fat ass. If the 100k is not satisified, the banks loss is a foregiveness of debt and may become reportable income to you. How's that for a hickey!!!!!! You refinanced, living high on the hog, subsequently forced to foreclose, for various reasons, and you are left with 100k in reportable income to the IRS!!!!!!!!
Please don't crash your hummer after reading this.
BC Bob
"I live in an apt. complex & the other day got my neighbor's boyfriend Discover bill by mistake."
...and you opened it and read the bill?!?! I find that almost as disturbing as their debt problems.
percentage of people that pay their cc balances at the end of each month: 55%
-montley fool
i love this blog, but lets stay clear of the "everybody is an idiot" theorem.
Curious
The average budget for fall clothing probably will be about $10,000 per household thru the end of the year + another $20,000 for the holidays..
Stop talking crap.....no 'average' person spends $10K for one season on clothes. Moreover, stop whining.....
{{{"I live in an apt. complex & the other day got my neighbor's boyfriend Discover bill by mistake."
...and you opened it and read the bill?!?! I find that almost as disturbing as their debt problems. }}}
Well, if the mailman (or postal person) is dumb enough to leave mail sitting in the lobby in front of the mailboxes when he doesn't see the persons name, or puts it in the wrong box then it is 'fair game'.
I 'accidently' opened a letter that was sitting on top of the mailboxes & saw that a deliquency notice for some korean person in my building showing that he owed over $14,000 to M&T bank which was about to go into collection.
At lunch y{{{esterday, this guy I work with said people are just jealous because they can't afford to live here and it's all sour grapes.}}}
That is what people say about those who can't afford to spend $2,000 for a tiny apartment in Chelsea or Tribeca or anywhere in prime Manhattan like its really worth it to spend over $2,000 a month + 15% brokers fee to live in some overpriced overtrendy shithole..
Rich,
just an "anonymous" person that cut & pasted an opinion from July 27?
and
A fan of this site, i read you guys everyday like a Junkie needing his next fix. Just sold my house made triple of what i paid for in 1999. ..........just waiting to get back in and live in my mcmansion for cheap.
I like to post things that disagree, cause i know the brilliant minds on this site will tear it apart(plus i am a horrible writer i will be known as PASTECUT305).
PS. Looking to buy in Maine, how would i start a blog like this for that area. thanks
Anonymous said...
"I live in an apt. complex & the other day got my neighbor's boyfriend Discover bill by mistake."
...and you opened it and read the bill?!?! I find that almost as disturbing as their debt problems.
8/31/2006 11:31:20 AM
Not to mention illegal. You cannot go broke betting on the stupidity of people.
Anonymous said;
"The average budget for fall clothing probably will be about $10,000 per household thru the end of the year + another $20,000 for the holidays.."
So you say the "average" person will spend 30k on clothing between now and X-Mas??????????
Did this "average" person just discover that their attic was filled from floor to ceiling with 100 oz. gold bars????
Where do people dig up this nonsense????
BC Bob
Well, if the mailman (or postal person) is dumb enough to leave mail sitting in the lobby in front of the mailboxes when he doesn't see the persons name, or puts it in the wrong box then it is 'fair game'.
No, not "fair game."
More like "federal offense."
I 'accidently' opened a letter that was sitting on top of the mailboxes & saw...
You do realize that your IP address is logged on this site, don't you?
inflation at 2.4% -lets see how the RE market likes the FED raising rates by 1/2 a point.
look at the currency market folks, that's the real story.
8/31/2006 01:00:54 PM
Richard,
You are right. I'm sure you know, but look at the US Dollar chart;
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?vol=Y&jav=adv&grid=Y&org=stk&sym=DXU6&data=H&code=BSTK&evnt=adv
With our appetite for consuming foreign goods, what are the possible inflation consequences if the Dollar continues to lose confidence. If it breaks the 80 level, watch out.
BC Bob
bergen county is so over.Its loaded
with phony people. Most of whom
can't afford it, or getting close to it. They could not afford to
buy the home they live in.
And it's all about the car payment.
Where's the old BC BOB with his BOOOOOOOOYAHs? BC BOB, bring it back. Seriously! I loved BC BOB's passion / supreme confidence.
BRING BACK the old BC BOB!!!!!!!!!
Anonymous said...
Where's the old BC BOB with his BOOOOOOOOYAHs,
Sorry that's not me. However, I enjoyed it also. That's BOOOOOOOYAAH Bob, different person. Sorry to disappoint you.
BC Bob
"Show & Tell society" getting a wakeup call.
Alot of those dunces about 30-40% of America are in the dumpers.
I hope to bail them out of some of their goodies as assets start to deflate.
House prices will continue to drop for weeks months and years ahead.
hehehehehe!
BOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA
Bob
GO AHEAD BUY A DEFLATING BLOATED OVERPRICED HOUSE.
YOu can where a Big "B" on your forehead...."BAGHOLDER"
babababa
"where" NOT "WEAR" duhhhhh....
Bababababa
BUST!
I hope to bail them out of some of their goodies as assets start to deflate.
You mean you hope to own a house some day, Bob?
Why, might I ask?
Well, I saved my $$$ and have been for a long time so help me with my lowball offer please. Looking in a subdivision built in early 1960's where all of the homes are essentially on the same size lot and most have added on an extension in the form of an extended family room. I researched the tax assessors site and the original price in the 1960's was around 60k. Looks like most of this block has lived there since then but there have been three sales since 1999. One in 2000 for 210k, one in 2004 for 399k and one in 2005 (July) for 490k. I am thinking the right lowball on the asking price of 569k is 400k. What says the board? (Remember, these folks have put on a nice extension that they must have paid at least 60k for). And for those of you who say I should offer 210, be realistic and at least tell me why anyone should expect a 2000 price for their home 7 years later!
"And for those of you who say I should offer 210, be realistic and at least tell me why anyone should expect a 2000 price for their home 7 years later!"
Study the following chart carefully:
http://tinyurl.com/e4so5
OK, maybe you can explain this chart to me like I am a six year old... housing prices always end up back at the median? or less? I should offer $1 because back in 600 BC the land had no value at all? I gave you some numbers including the original price of the home when it was built in 1961 of $60,000. You wanna give me a number back or just keep posting the graph?
"OK, maybe you can explain this chart to me like I am a six year old... housing prices always end up back at the median? or less? I should offer $1 because back in 600 BC the land had no value at all? I gave you some numbers including the original price of the home when it was built in 1961 of $60,000. You wanna give me a number back or just keep posting the graph?"
Look at the most recent sale pre-2000. Gross it up by the inflation amount for each following year. That should give you a good idea. Or, take 30% off (or whatever you think is "correct") what comparable homes sold for last year.
RE 2:30 -- I plugged in $60K in 1961 and came up with a 2006 value of $406K and change by using the Minn. Fed's inflation calculator.
However, I would argue that there is no such thing as a "reasonable" price. Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay. On a state and nationwide basis right now there are less buyers willing to pay what sellers are asking than there were 12 months ago. Where the particular house you are looking at falls, I have no idea. I will say if you intend to lowball with a number way below recent comps, you may want to spend
some time at the clerk's office checking out the seller's mortgage status. We are not at the stage where I would expect a seller to accept a bid that would put him upside down.
I would think $350 would be safe, the value of that house probably won't go lower in the next few years, good luck convincing them to take your offer. I guarantee they wouldn't take $490 if you offered it.
Exactly. You can't expect a seller to take a 30% hit today.
There is no reason to think that prices will crash in a sudden way. Far more likely that they will grind slowly, but inexorably, downward over the next couple of years.
"I should offer $1 because back in 600 BC the land had no value at all?"
You consider 1999 "600BC"?
"I gave you some numbers including the original price of the home when it was built in 1961 of $60,000. You wanna give me a number back or just keep posting the graph?"
You have to do your own homework on where you think the market will head (i.e., look at the graph, nowhere to go but down).
Buying today simply doesn't make any sense -- sellers have not yet accepted their fate, and will not accept your carefully-calculated "lowball."
Spend your time and effort going to the beach, spending time with friends and family, etc.
A useful exercise would be to have a realtor e-mail you all listings which closed in your target town between 1999 and 2000, possibly including 2001. They can easily do this, and it will be a real eye opener.
Why, might I ask?
WHY you ask?
I buy everything on sale. I will buy every DREAM item I ever wanted in the next 3 years at vulture prices.
heheheheeeeeee
I will buy every DREAM item I ever wanted in the next 3 years at vulture prices.
Sure...call me when you get that waterfront Hamptons property at "vulture prices." Or that Park Avenue duplex...or that Aspen ski condo....
Better take another Ambien and keep dreaming, Bob.
"Better take another Ambien and keep dreaming, Bob"
Hey there big guy you sound like one of those sour puss Starving realtors getting a little cranky. Rememeber quite a few of those cranky harassing types back in 1992-1994 when I vultured some primo assets.
So keep up the chatter little cranky no commish this month realtor.
Tsunami wave 2 is approaching and you ain't seen any PAIN yet.
Going to BLEED'EM DRY WHEN THIS SUCKA HITS ROCK BOTTOM. Next March should really get ugly...really ugly. Notttt'ing selling no commish a depression for these lousy grubbers.
BABABABA
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Starting to smack the old lips waiting for a few luxury assets...cars...motorcycles...toys to vulture from a few dummies begging for a sale.
Keep begging slugs cuz my price keeps dropping. I am going to beed every friggen concession from you til you try to just hand it over.
This is going to be fun like the old days....bleeding the dummies Dry. And they earned the pain themselves.
BABABABABA
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
BLEED'EM DRY.....
NO BIDS NO HOPE NO NOOOTTT'''ING!
JUST 6 MONTHS AGO MANY OF THESE DUMMIES HAD BLOATED EGO FILLED HEADS NOW THE BLOAT IS FIZZZING OUT.
HUMBLED AND KICKED AROUND. THIS IS WHEN THESE DUMMIES HIT ROCK BOTTOM...A NICE ATTITUDE ADJUSTMENT....U KNOW THE WORD HUMBLE AS OPPOSED TO ARROGANT WANT-A-BE RE TYCOON GENIUS...
Good memories from a 12-15 years
BLEED'EM DRY
BABABABABABA!
Friggen GRIND!
Is this what you want Greedy money grubbing "it's Not 2005" sellers.
Home equity Going POOOOOFFFFFFFFF!
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