Monday, August 28, 2006

Price Reduced! Morris 8/18 - 8/28

Welcome to another edition of Price Reduced!

For all the newcomers to this blog, Price Reduced! takes a look at a handful of significant price reductions across Northern NJ. The purpose of this exercise is to serve as proof that the Northern New Jersey real estate market has long since been overvalued and has started the long hard decline back to the mean. These listings are in no way an endorsement by me, nor do I believe they are a bargain or a value. Even reduced, I still believe these homes are still grossly overpriced.

On to the list!


Morris
MLSTownOriginal ListList PriceReduced
2203111Kinnelon$2,150,000$1,449,00032.60%
2264950Jefferson$435,000$350,00019.50%
2271789Mount Olive$725,000$599,90017.30%
2258594Jefferson$319,900$265,00017.20%
2276485Roxbury$419,000$349,00016.70%
2299709Rockaway$1,199,000$999,99916.60%
2265540Morris $1,250,000$1,050,00016.00%
2268485Denville $639,000$539,00015.60%
2302086Morristown Town$649,000$549,00015.40%
2231744Roxbury$389,900$329,90015.40%
2289264Morris$618,000$525,00015.00%
2258958Rockaway $529,000$450,00014.90%
2268683Chatham $935,000$799,00014.50%
2222380Rockaway $595,000$509,90014.30%
2275247Harding$699,900$599,90014.30%
2293241Rockaway$359,900$309,90013.90%
2285691Mount Olive$649,000$559,00013.90%
2290975Mount Olive $439,900$379,90013.60%
2280895Parsippany-Troy Hills$379,900$329,00013.40%
2276232Rockaway$219,000$189,90013.30%
2272288Morris $389,000$339,00012.90%
2264066Washington$1,090,000$950,00012.80%
2272566Montville $859,000$749,00012.80%
2263866Washington $865,568$755,55712.70%
2257922Pequannock$538,190$469,90012.70%
2278711Rockaway $429,000$374,90012.60%
2266600Kinnelon$1,599,000$1,399,00012.50%
2284929Kinnelon Boro$795,000$699,90012.00%
2285277Kinnelon$765,000$675,00011.80%
2270644Boonton Town$679,000$599,90011.60%
2277719Randolph $1,690,000$1,495,00011.50%
2268559Chatham $949,000$839,90011.50%
2258904Rockaway $484,900$429,90011.30%
2107582Dover Town$409,900$365,00011.00%
2303396Montville $750,000$669,00010.80%
2288314Madison$1,849,000$1,650,00010.80%
2272505Roxbury$829,000$739,90010.70%
2253323Jefferson$425,000$379,90010.60%
2291554Montville$1,228,000$1,099,00010.50%
2269360Parsippany-Troy Hills $229,000$205,00010.50%
2261436Mount Olive $429,900$384,90010.50%
2302454Washington$669,000$599,00010.50%
2271851Parsippany-Troy Hills $574,900$514,90010.40%
2268333Rockaway$479,900$429,90010.40%
2277298Mountain Lakes$999,000$895,00010.40%
2273975Randolph$319,500$286,50010.30%
2294469Rockaway $499,900$449,90010.00%
2301653Roxbury$217,000$195,30010.00%



Caveat Emptor!
Grim

20 Comments:

Blogger Jpatrick said...

I've been watching Morris and Somerset County for about a year now. This is shades of the late 80's, but much longer and more protracted. I think the slide could take years.

8/28/2006 11:25:00 AM  
Anonymous Anth said...

Thanks!

8/28/2006 12:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Looking at the following graph which depicts home values for the last 100 years, betting that the slide will take years is probably a losing bet:

http://tinyurl.com/e4so5

8/28/2006 02:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/e4so5

This is one really scary chart to look at. There is a very long way to fall. Alot of fools bying at these so called "buyers market" prices are going to get killed.

No rush to buy. Let prices just keep grinding lower until sellers just scream "get me out"!

8/28/2006 02:36:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"betting that the slide will take years is probably a losing bet"

I disagree. Look at the chart-- each "boom" has about the same slope as the resulting bust. In other words, however long the runup took was the same length of time for prices to hit bottom. In the chart, the runup starts in 1998. That sucks for those of us looking to get into a home. Prices are going to start dropping soon, but it could be 6-8 years before this thing hits bottom.

8/28/2006 02:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Whats the story for
Bucks county Pa.

Any info.?

I got to get out of
NJ.

Its over .

8/28/2006 02:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ask the fools with readjusting loans or the seller who is panicking cuz they are afraid the home equity is going to just go poooffff right before retirement.

The market should show real signs of distress just after March '07. When the grubbers start to really give up and start chasing the market downward. Just keep lowering the bid as the fools chase prices down to the bottom.

8/28/2006 02:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is so fun watching the Grubbing sellers starting to panic and trying to lower their price more than the other grubber AND not getting a bid at all.

Hehehehehe.

The roles are in reverse now. HOW does it feel Grubbers and starving Realtors?
Get used to it cuz alot more pain is on the way and alot less home equity in your pockets.

8/28/2006 02:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

GO AHEAD GO OUT AND ABUSE A FEW SELLERS AND REALTORS.

SLICE 40% OF OF THEIR BLOATED DREAM PRICE AND TELL'EM THAT'S IT. THIS IS BEFORE THE HOUSE INSPECTION.

IT'S FUN TO WATCH'EM SQUIRM.

HOW DOES IT FEEL GRUBBERS/STARVING REALTORS?

8/28/2006 03:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

FIRE FIRE FIRE!!!!!!!!

BOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA

Bob

8/28/2006 03:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

“The chief investment strategist of Raymond James Financial, Jeffrey Saut, is warning clients that the ongoing collapse of residential real estate has far-reaching implications for both the economy and the stock market. The associate editor of a monthly investment letter, Michael Larson, tells me the market is on the verge of realizing the third phase of the housing bust, which he believes has very negative implications for stock prices.”

“The first two were the stiff declines in homebuilders and suppliers of home products. Next on the list, Larson says, are the financial institutions, notably those banks and sub-prime lenders that provided the financing for super high loans on inflated properties.”

“Larson notes that a lot of people on Wall Street seem to think the likely end of higher interest rates in the current credit-tightening cycle is a significant plus for the economy as a whole since it should ensure a soft landing. Our housing bear disagrees. On what basis, he asks, is it rational to expect a soft landing in a period that has produced the biggest real estate bubble in history?”

“Private investor Neil Weisman..thinks it will take the housing industry at least five to seven years to work off its excess inventories, rather than the one to two years many Wall Streeters are projecting.”

What a lesson to experience. Just keep your eyes and ears wide open. Soak it all up and never forget.

8/28/2006 03:14:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Where were all these people last year?

8/28/2006 03:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim,
Could you please add Middle Sex county Price Reduced!'s also.

8/28/2006 03:44:00 PM  
Blogger Jpatrick said...

I can't quantify this, but I think this coming real estate slide is going to have more of a national character to it. Much like that predicted by Gray Emerson Cardiff in 1982.

One reason I think so is that the money market has been good for buyers for a long time. In a lot of markets, easy lending terms helped to jack up prices.

What made lending terms so lax in some areas? I think local governments--counties and cities-- were anxious to expand their tax bases with rising real estate prices. After all, the aftermath of 9-1-1 did strain a lot of local first-responders for resources.

8/28/2006 04:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So for a first time buyer with a growing family who pretty much has to buy in the next year or two (at the latest), what should you do? Do you buy west to get the size you need, knowing you want to be in a better town closer to NY, or do you try and squeak into a shack in the nicer town and wait out the storm?

8/28/2006 04:51:00 PM  
Blogger emphaticus said...

I've been tracking my house's value on zillow. Despite all of the negative data, this site shows a dramatic upward spike in value during the month of August. I'm in the 07005 zip code, and I can't figure it out.

8/28/2006 11:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Zillow Smillow, Zillow is so inaccurate, i tried my house which i sold for 305 and zillow says its worth between 345 and 450 My mother inlaws house , she could get 500k but zillow marked it worth 350k. Zillow company should take that crap off the internet. Its worthless. On another note my coworker sold her house also , was listed at 439,000 she ended up taking 380k, she was pissed. I told her that she is very lucky because next year you would of gotten alot less.

8/29/2006 06:51:00 AM  
Anonymous Stan said...

The 100 year home value chart is likely exagerating the recent runup in home prices if it is using CPI to adjust for inflation. The CPI calcuation has been changed so it isn't very accurate to compare modern CPI adjusted data with historical CPI adjusted data.

8/29/2006 07:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"So for a first time buyer with a growing family who pretty much has to buy in the next year or two (at the latest), what should you do?"

Can you rent a home for a couple years? If not, I would buy the cheapest house you can stand to minimize losses.

8/29/2006 10:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

MLS Number: 2282262 Clifton, NJ

Started as by owner last October at 750k, next was agent # 1 with a listing price of 739k, ahter 6 months the current agent started at 649k. Just saw listing as 619k. So the prices are dropping drastically.

8/29/2006 11:37:00 AM  

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