Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Year-Over-Year Declines Hit New Jersey

A few weeks ago, I had mentioned that I thought we would begin to see year-over-year price declines by the third quarter of 2006. This was due to the fact that peak prices (and demand) were seen during the third quarter of 2005. However, according to a report released yesterday by the NAR, parts of New Jersey are already experiencing year-over-year declines. That is right, for the first time in more than 10 years the median price fell.

From the Asbury Park Press:

New data add to changing homes picture

The median sales price of an existing home in the region that includes Monmouth and Ocean counties was $393,600, down 0.1 percent from the same period a year ago.

Real estate sales in New Jersey declined 16.3 percent in the second quarter.

There was a nine-month supply of homes for sale in both Monmouth and Ocean counties in the first six months of 2006. A year ago, there was a 4.5-month supply in Monmouth and a 4.3-month supply in Ocean.

For the first time in a decade, home prices in the region that includes the Shore have declined, although the drop in second-quarter prices was slight, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday.

The median sales price for an existing home in the region that encompasses Monmouth, Ocean, Somerset and Middlesex counties was $393,600 in the second quarter, down 0.1 percent from $394,100 in the second quarter of 2005, according to the association. The median means that half the homes in the area sold for more and half for less.

It's the first time that the association has seen a percentage decrease since prices in the region fell from $148,600 to $148,500 from 1993 to 1994. They have climbed ever since.

"There is a major housing slowdown," said James W. Hughes, dean of Rutgers University's Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy. "It is surprising that prices have behaved as well as they have."

Other areas of New Jersey still showed single-digit percentage increases in the second quarter. For instance, the median home price in an area that includes Bergen and Passaic counties was $473,700, up 4.6 percent from $452,700. The median price in the area of Union, Hunterdon, Morris, and Essex counties was $443,800, up 7.1 percent from $414,400.
...
The regional figure from the association may look worse because in Somerset County, the median price fell 4 percent to $414,223, according to Otteau. In Middlesex County, the median price rose 8 percent to $412,760. The association's reports do not break out figures for individual counties in New Jersey. They also do not include new home sales.

Otteau said it may just be a matter of time until the Shore prices show more of a decline.

"We are beginning to see price declines in the market, which began in the second quarter of this year," said Jeffrey G. Otteau, the firm's president. "They won't show up in the calculations until the third quarter of '06."
...
Albert S. Veltri, president and chief executive officer of Veltri & Associates of Dover Township, said he expects home prices to rise about 3 to 5 percent this year.

"We are seeing a lot of what we call low-ball offers," Veltri said. Whether the offer is accepted depends on the personal needs of the seller, Veltri said. "I think people are starting out low, and the sellers who are not flexible are turning down those offers, obviously."

12 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Albert S. Veltri, president and chief executive officer of Veltri & Associates of Dover Township, said he expects home prices to rise about 3 to 5 percent this year.

"We are seeing a lot of what we call low-ball offers," Veltri said. Whether the offer is accepted depends on the personal needs of the seller, Veltri said. "I think people are starting out low, and the sellers who are not flexible are turning down those offers, obviously."

Where has he been?

8/16/2006 06:36:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Other areas of New Jersey still showed single-digit percentage increases in the second quarter. For instance, the median home price in an area that includes Bergen and Passaic counties was $473,700, up 4.6 percent from $452,700. The median price in the area of Union, Hunterdon, Morris, and Essex counties was $443,800, up 7.1 percent from $414,400.
...

How can you get almost 5% & 7% with inventory going up like it has been?
This seems out of wack, dosn't it?

8/16/2006 06:49:00 AM  
Blogger Richie said...

Median prices are very misleading, the real estate agency loves it that way.

I wish they'd post medians and averages, I'd love to see how that number plays out over time.

8/16/2006 07:33:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So a purchase of 430K in 05 will bring $462.4 in 06.
I think not!

8/16/2006 07:45:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

100% gains for about 5 years does not deserve lower prices.

RIPPING OFF BUYERS.

BID LOWER AND TELL'EM GOOD BYE.

8/16/2006 08:06:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Richie said...
Median prices are very misleading, the real estate agency loves it that way.
I wish they'd post medians and averages, I'd love to see how that number plays out over time.
8/16/2006 08:33:52 AM

What you need is the appraised value of the SAME property from period to period. The home value numbers are always subject to "mix" issues.

8/16/2006 10:01:00 AM  
Blogger StonePearl said...

I think Ill mass mail this out to all the assh@le realtors in Hoboken.
Im in the market to buy at a decent price.
I have been lowballing only about 5-10% below list prices of places in Hoboken.
The real estate agents act like I've killed their puppy.
Two of them even refused to give the offer to their clients at all.
I offered 550k on a property listed at 629k on Washington St. that has received no offers all Summer.
The listing agent refuses to even negotiate or present the offer to his client.
Here I am a ready buyer and they're shooting me down.
Go figure.
What's interesting is that the two FSBO people Ive dealt with are aware the market is tanking.

8/16/2006 05:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

> Two of them even refused to give the offer to their clients at all.

This is ILLEGAL. Realtor, by contract, MUST PRESENT ALL OFFERS IN WRITING TO THE SELLLER.

Threaten to sue them.
Let's see their reaction.

8/16/2006 07:03:00 PM  
Blogger StonePearl said...

Anonymous said...
> Two of them even refused to give the offer to their clients at all.

This is ILLEGAL. Realtor, by contract, MUST PRESENT ALL OFFERS IN WRITING TO THE SELLLER.

Threaten to sue them.
Let's see their reaction.

8/16/2006 08:03:18 PM
>>>>>>


Thank you, I thought it was illegal for him to refuse to.
Im mad now. Go to go after his @ss tomorrow.

8/16/2006 08:05:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

It is illegal if you are willing to sign a check and a contract for $55,000 and have it escrowed. If you just want to make verbal offers, then they can blow you off.

8/16/2006 08:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

change your agent ASAP. they are supposed to be holding your hand...I mean "working" for you.

8/16/2006 09:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That lowball offer may be the best that they get. Some idiots reject, then let it sit. Lower asking price to the lowball offer. Then they get another lowball...Bulls make money Bears make money and greedy pigs get slaughtered!!!

8/16/2006 10:26:00 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home