Thursday, September 14, 2006

Five Stages of Grief

From Realty Times:

Realty Reality: "Five Stages" Applies to Realtors Too

The first stage, Denial, is similar to that observed in terminally ill patients. It is the first reaction of agents. They refuse to accept the diagnosis. They reject the data, no matter how carefully it is presented. While in the denial stage they will clutch at straws, often looking for second, third, and even fourth opinions. They will exaggerate the importance of even the slightest bit of good news.
...
After Denial comes Anger. Here there are important differences between real estate agents and terminally ill patients. The latter are inclined to be angry with God or some vague forces such as Fate. The anger of agents, however, tends to be directed toward some tangible being, such as the broker. It is the broker's fault that there are no good leads, no phone calls, etc.

The direction of anger will vary depending on the level of abstraction with which the agent is working. If it is the agent's personal lack of activity, then the broker is the likely target. However, if the agent really does perceive the problem to be larger, e.g. to be a local, regional, or even national phenomenon, then the agent may direct his anger to such entities as nay-sayers in the newspaper, economists, or even "the government."
...
After Anger comes the Bargaining stage. Here, the real estate agent is more like a terminally ill patient in that his bargaining is liable to be directed to some outer force (God, Fates, Forces of the Universe). This takes the form of, "If only something good will happen, I will do such and such." Those of us who have been around long enough to remember the early nineties will recall the Realtor's prayer, "Dear Lord, if you will give me just one more good market, I promise not to %&!* it all away the next time." That is bargaining.

Next, Depression is experienced. This is unlike the well-known inchoate clinical depression for which the sufferer cannot name a cause. The depression that characterizes the fourth stage is understood as a result of some reality. It is the depression experienced when one realizes that the days of big bucks are over, that it won't be possible to make the lease payments on that fancy car, that there won't be anymore $200 golf rounds, etc. It is depression with a focus.
...
Kubler-Ross observed a final fifth stage among terminally ill people, which she called Acceptance. But this should not be thought of as a happy or benign state. Rather, it is a giving up, a ceasing to struggle. It happens to real estate agents as well. Having recognized the reality of a dying market and after being depressed about the personal results thereof, the agent surrenders and stops struggling

50 Comments:

Blogger grim said...

From Marketwatch:

Bies defends tougher bank commercial real estate rules

Federal Reserve Gov. Susan Bies urged banks to guard themselves against taking on too many commercial real estate loans and defended regulators' risk management proposals in light of some banks' concerns on Thursday. "Investment in [commercial real estate] is again growing strongly, and we expect banks to assess the vulnerabilities of their portfolios to loss in expectation of the next downturn," Bies said in prepared remarks to a House Financial Services subcommittee. She acknowledged banks' complaints about proposed rules but said regulators aren't trying to limit commercial real estate lending.

9/14/2006 10:08:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Saw my old realtor the other day; looked very depressed. A clear Stage 5 scenario.

9/14/2006 10:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oops, a clear Stage 4 scenario.

9/14/2006 10:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And you can make money off every step, if you play your cards right.

SAS

9/14/2006 10:22:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Richard, not all people who experience grief are terminally ill.

9/14/2006 11:26:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

On to the sixth stage: Boredom. The Kubler-Ross scale analogy has been a tad overused.

9/14/2006 11:34:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Last Stage BUST!!!!!!!

Notttt"ing NO HOPE Desperation....Next year for this one....

Grubbing sellers and realtors will be begging lowball bids from weel qualified 20%+ down buyers.

Get ready YOU ARE WANTED!

Babbababababa

9/14/2006 11:40:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

I just wish the RE folks could go through the K-R stages as fast as Homer Simpson when he ate Fugu.

9/14/2006 11:52:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

My realtors anger was directed at me! After advising him to present the seller with an offer of $75k off the asking price he told me he wouldn't normally present such a low offer. I told him to present it. I never heard from him again! He removed me from the automatic listings I received daily. We are serious buyers. I thought he realized this. What's the use of having a realtor if he wont present offers. It's the only part of the whole transaction I really need him for!

9/14/2006 11:54:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Dr. H: Now, a little death anxiety is normal. You can expect to go through five stages.

Dr. H:The first is denial.
Homer: No way! Because I'm not dying! [hugs Marge]

Dr. H: The second is anger.
Homer: Why you little! [steps towards Dr. H]

Dr. H: After that comes fear.
Homer: What's after fear? What's after fear? [cringes]

Dr. H: Bargaining.
Homer: Doc, you gotta get me out of this! I'll make it worth your while!

Dr. H: Finally, acceptance.
Homer: Well, we all gotta go sometime.

Dr. H: Mr. Simpson, your progress astounds me.

9/14/2006 11:59:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

For many, homes becoming a liability

oldman Sachs' chief economist, Jan Hatzius, figures national home prices will decline 5 percent in 2007, further pressuring borrowers who are upside down. "If there is little or no equity, it will be hard for homeowners to sell their way out of trouble," he warned.

Merrill Lynch's chief economist David Rosenberg dared look out a bit further. His forecast calls for home prices to decline by a further 3 percent in 2008, remain flat in 2009 and increase by 1 percent in both 2010 and 2011.

Bear in mind, these figures are polite in typical Wall Street fashion. There's a good chance things will get much uglier, since home prices, adjusted for inflation, have risen three times more than they've done in any other housing cycle in U.S. history. In other words, no one knows how much prices will fall, because there's simply no precedent to guide us.

9/14/2006 12:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"""distasteful ,,,there's just no comparison in the grand scheme of things."""

I AGREE, THAT IS A VERY VERY STUPID CHOICE OF WORDS,
GO BACK AND RE-EDIT THE ARTICLE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

9/14/2006 12:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fire that Lousy grubbing realtor.

A dime a dozen for a tour guide.

9/14/2006 12:09:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

From the LA Times:

CEO Makes Call on Pay-Option Loans: It's Risky


Mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. regularly warns customers about the risks of paying less than the interest due on loans offering that option. Now Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo is calling some of them personally.

Mozilo reached out to borrowers as part of a "little experiment" to understand the reasoning behind making only minimum payments on so-called pay-option loans, a practice that boosts the total amount due, the 67-year-old CEO told investors Wednesday in New York.

"What we're finding out is that they're pretty smart," Mozilo said. "It's like voters: Individually they're sort of idiots, but collectively they seem to make the right decisions."

The customers Mozilo spoke with were convinced their home values would continue to rise, more than making up for the added costs, he said. Pay-option loans can accumulate interest, or "negatively amortize," until a cap or a set date is reached and the interest rate automatically rises. Mozilo said he wanted to know why customers were paying only the minimum.

"The answer was, 'I'm doing it because the rate of negative amortization is less than the increased value in my house each month,' " Mozilo said. "The average age of our borrower is about 38 years old. They have never in their adult lives seen values going down. The concept is alien to them."

Pay-option loans accounted for about 18% of the $220 billion in residential loans Countrywide extended in the first half of the year.

9/14/2006 12:20:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

'I'm doing it because the rate of negative amortization is less than the increased value in my house each month,' "

Well well well. what a bunch of dummies!!!

Brainwashed by the RE clan over the years. We all have to learn the hard way one time or another.I betcha many cannot afford to pay any principal down.

9/14/2006 12:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

'I'm doing it because the rate of negative amortization is less than the increased value in my house each month,' "

Well well well. what a bunch of dummies!!!

Brainwashed by the RE clan over the years. We all have to learn the hard way one time or another.I betcha many cannot afford to pay any principal down.

9/14/2006 12:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"What we're finding out is that they're pretty smart," Mozilo said. "It's like voters: Individually they're sort of idiots, but collectively they seem to make the right decisions."

He is talking about individuals that are convinced the rise in real estate values will more than offset their neg amortization. He terms this smart???? Makes you certainly wonder about him. I'll just keep drinking until I pass out. Pretty smart, at least I won't able to get in a car and drive.

BC Bob

9/14/2006 01:14:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

From the AP:

Feds May Sue Former Fannie Mae Execs

The two executives who led Fannie Mae to an $11 billion accounting scandal can expect federal regulators to file lawsuits against them, the head of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said Wednesday.

"We will more than likely be filing litigation against them," OFHEO director James Lockhart said during a speech at the American Enterprise Institute.

When later asked by reporters if legal action was likely against Fannie Mae's former chief financial officer Timothy Howard and the mortgage finance giant's former chairman and chief executive Franklin Raines -- who was White House budget director under President Clinton -- Lockhart did not name names but did say "they are the top two."

9/14/2006 01:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How about these 5 stages;

1)Orderly slowdown
2)Soft Landing
3)Slump
4)Hard Landing
5)Bust

When we reach #5, it then turns into a rout.

BC Bob

9/14/2006 01:18:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"there's no reason for an agent to waste your or his own time"

Skeptic,
I agree. On the contrary, what else is on the agents agenda to occupy their time???? Maybe we all should be wasting their time, they may get a better sense of where the market is. What happens when the seller decides to accept a bid from another agent's client while the first agent was afraid to insult the seller??? By the way, isn't it required that all bids must be presented in the state of NJ???

BC Bob

9/14/2006 01:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Skep-tic,
I hope he never calls back. Actually I'm quite suprised he decided to end things this way. We are serious buyers who plan on a 40% down payment. This would be a second home in an area of mostly second homes. The county has the highest inventory rate in the state. Why would he turn away a commission? Maybe he has better offers? Maybee he cant handle all the pressures of being a realtor? Maybee he was abducted by aliens? Maybeeee.....

9/14/2006 02:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

bottomfeeder - I also plan on making offers after the new year, and they will be at least 75k less than asking - I am thinking more about 100-150k less. I thought realtors had to present all offers. I think I may look up the owners on my own and go about it that way. I plan on making more than one offer at a time and letting the sellers know it is they who will be loosing my bid if they aren't serious.

9/14/2006 02:27:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Harbinger of things to come???

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor and the United Auto Workers union have agreed to offer buyouts to all of the auto maker's 75,000 UAW-represented workers in the U.S., according to a media report Thursday. UAW officials met Tuesday to discuss the possibility of expanded buyout and early-retirement offers, the Wall Street Journal reported on its Web site, citing union officials. Dearborn, Mich.-based Ford is scheduled to announce details of its accelerated North American restructuring effort tomorrow. The original "Way Forward" plan called for 30,000 job cuts and 14 plant closures by 2012.

9/14/2006 02:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

FYI - Every realtor works for the seller. There is no such thing as a "buyer's agent". In NJ, the fiduciary obligation is ALWAYS to the seller. If you tell your "buyer's agent" to put in a serious bid of $75M below ask, they HAVE to pass that on to the seller. And if they ask if, in negotiations, you might inch up $5M on your offer, they are legally required to tell the seller that too.

The ethics of the whole industry disgusts me. Remember that the next time your "buyer's agent" is showing you around for free. They work for the sellers. that is where there legal obligations lie.

9/14/2006 02:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anyone has any comments for this house?
MILLBURN/SHORT, NJ? 07078
MLS ID#: 2303337
How much should I offer?

9/14/2006 02:36:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Detroit needs to start making cars people want to buy. The symptoms in Detroit actually reflect the problems in the US on a larger scale:

1. Cannot make products that compete globally.
2. High labor costs compared to competitors.
3. Future Pension and healthcare unfunded liabilities.

Until US gets China to devalues its Yuan, #1/2/3 above will not improve. But hey, China owns a chunk of US treasuries so why will they ever listen?

9/14/2006 02:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't see 879 for that house in Short Hills.. I see in the 5's but then again.. 1.3 million for a dump in Greenwich, CT... Someone posted that a while back and I just can't make an offer of $300 make sense.. And I do know both areas very well. I have relatives in both towns.

9/14/2006 02:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dream,

A stronger Chinese yuan is desirable to increase the cost of China's exports. Tres Sec. Paulison is pushing China to allow gains in the yuan to help narrow our trade deficit. You are right about who owns us.

BC Bob

9/14/2006 02:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's the $1.3 million dump in Greenwich again, for your viewing pleasure:

http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1051354949

Note that the rusting chain link fence is included.

9/14/2006 03:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Remember that the next time your "buyer's agent" is showing you around for free. They work for the sellers. that is where there legal obligations lie."

9/14/2006 03:34:29 PM

This is misleading. A listing agent/exclusive listing work for the seller. You may be working with a realtor from a completely different office. Believe me, that agent is working for you. They don't receive a comm split unless either you or another buyer's of their's goes to contract. They could really care less about the seller, only that they accept your bid.

KL???? Correct me if I'm wrong.

BC Bob

9/14/2006 03:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To respectfully disagree with other opinions here, the realtors I have most observed (save for the RARE exception) are the most vile, unethical and unsavory individuals I have ever met.

I am not holding such realtors responsible for the high prices of housing over the last years. Those are dictated by the market.

I am talking about the blatant lies and misrepresentations I have witnessed, on the part of these realtors. The problem is that there is no real policing of their activities (and any scumbag, regardless of level of education) can get into the "profession".

I have no axe to grind here, as no realtor has ever harmed me in any way personally. I am just in a profession where i see them at work, all the time. Many years of observations.

My 2 cents, cheers.

9/14/2006 03:20:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I just wanted to defend the RE agents out there as most of the ones I have come across seem to be honest. Maybe not always the smartest or as on top of the market as I'd like, but honest.

"HONEST"??????

DO NOT TRUST THESE thugs with your biggest lifetime purchase.

9/14/2006 03:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Think and rely on yourself.

Just look at the quotes and comments coming out of the NAR the last few years.
Totally sickening!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This blog is the best. Many here do not realize how lucky you are to have the internet to share and exchange ideas by the minute.

9/14/2006 03:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

10 sellers for every 1 'Qualified" buyer.

Do not listen to the propaganda on this thread. The RE leaders are already warning of bad times ahead.

9/14/2006 03:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I feel like RE agents are getting slammed a little too much on this blog"

Yawn....

SAS

9/14/2006 03:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

SAS,

You've been doing a lot of yawns lately. Don't you find the other point of view enlightening???

BC Bob

9/14/2006 03:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 3:27:22,
About 10 days ago I give an offer to a FSBO for 150k off asking price. She said she couldnt possibly consider the offer since she would still owe an additional 160k. She mortgaged the whole thing plus closing costs! I will not give up the lowballing. I am patient. Someone will bite. I have time and money on my side.

9/14/2006 03:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Anonymous looking in Millburn

"Anyone has any comments for this house?
MILLBURN/SHORT, NJ? 07078
MLS ID#: 2303337
How much should I offer?
9/14/2006 03:36:49 PM "

Find out the address of the house either by knowing the area and driving around or calling the realtor directly. Look up previous sales history. If it sold in the mid to late 90's, take that price and gross it up by 4-5% per year to today's price. Then make adjustments for any renovations that may have been done (though from pix it looks like its all original)on the property. If it sold during the bubble years, decrease the last sales price by the HPI back to a late 90's value and then gross back up at the 4-5% inflation rate. And yes, many people will say even 5% is quite generous. This is the MOST you should be willing to pay.

Millburn/Short Hills is a Wall St. community so it will command a slightly higher price than other towns in Essex/Union. It also has the top high school in NJ which if you ask me, is a good reason NOT to move there if you have kids. A little competition is a good thing but the top 20% of students at MHS are all stress-cases.

9/14/2006 04:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

KL, please support what you're saying. In the Real estate Transactions course I took in law school, it was made very clear that the brokers/agents work only for the seller.

ZERO fiduciary responsibility to the buyer. NONE. BC Bob, do not be fooled. No realtor is owes you ANY loyalty unless you are selling a property.

9/14/2006 04:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"No realtor is owes you ANY loyalty unless you are selling a property."

9/14/2006 05:35:34 PM

Anon,

Say I'm working with a realtor from Agency 1, a house I want to buy is listed thru Agency 2. Agency 1 (my realtor) does not give a damn about the seller, only that the seller accepts my bid. They only make a comm if I go to contract. What respobsibility does my broker have to the seller if I walk away/not interested???

BC Bob

9/14/2006 05:09:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"enjoy going 0 for whatever."

9/14/2006 05:23:51 PM

Richard,

How about he just goes 1 for 20??
How are the sellers batting??? B-feeder has time, patience and money, he is dealing from a position of strength. The question is, do the sellers have time,patience and money???

BC Bob

9/14/2006 05:15:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Anyone has any comments for this house?
MILLBURN/SHORT, NJ? 07078
MLS ID#: 2303337"



That seller is DREAMING.

http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1065267269

Who would buy a 2 bedroom house on a busy street for almost $900K?

Think there's only a $100K difrerence between that crap box and this house?

MLS 2318033
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1067747176


And I wouldn't buy either one right now!

Love the second house, but won't even attend the open house this weekend. See you Greedy Grubber sellers in 2007/2008!

9/14/2006 05:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

bottomfeeder
About 10 days ago I give an offer to a FSBO for 150k off asking price. She said she couldnt possibly consider the offer since she would still owe an additional 160k. She mortgaged the whole thing plus closing costs!

This is part of the problem why prices don't fall as fast as one would expect. What Economists call "exit costs". These exit costs are so high now, that people cannot exit the bad purchase they made. They cannot lower the price because they cannot come up with the cash to pay the difference.

Now they will go into overdrive working two jobs, deliverying pizza or what (have you noticed the late model vehicles deliverying pizza in your area?) trying to make the payments. Eventually some will succeed others will fail. When those who were unable to make the payments despite hurclean efforts give up and walk away (with the serious exit costs of foreclosure or bankruptcy, owing money to IRS and moving to lesser neighbourhoods), that is when the market resets to a new equilbrum. This is still many months away...but many simply cannot accept lower prices now because they cannot cover the difference

9/14/2006 05:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BC Bob,

The agent has an obligation to share any information useful to the seller with the seller. Obviously an agent cannot make you by a house. But if you make an offer through your agent, they have a legal obligation to pass that on to the seller. If a seller fails to sell, and finds out that a bona fide buyer was willing with an offer, but the agent kept this from seller, the seller can sue the agent.

9/14/2006 05:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"You've been doing a lot of yawns lately. Don't you find the other point of view enlightening???"

The feel sorry for the poor RE agent story just bores me.

If someone relies on a commission, you can't really trust them. Thats just the way it is. They have other motives (like getting paid), they don't give a shit about you.

If any RE agent wants to challenge me on that, give me your next paycheck.

Thought so.... too easy.

So, like I said earlier...

Yawn.

SAS

9/14/2006 06:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon:
9/14/2006 06:45:55 PM

I made the same point in an earlier post, that my agent is required to present my bid to the seller,that is clear. If they don't, action can be taken. My contention is, what other obligation does my agent have to the seller, if my agent is not acting in a dual capacity?? Nothing.

Skeptic,

I agree, if the house is a fsbo.If the house is listed in MLS and you want to see the house you have to call a licensed RE agent. Go try to work a deal with the seller, the listing office will receive their comm.. If you call the listing office to view a property the listing agency will receive the entire comm, if you buy. Listing agents love when someone comes without a re agent, you now become $ signs to them.

BC Bob

9/14/2006 07:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

SAS, I know many long-time agents who get most of their business from referrals. They may depend on commissions, but it takes integrity and professionalism to keep them busy. I have used the same agent in three transactions (buy and sell) over 20 years. I think you get back what you give out. Maybe thats why your agents don't appear to be committed to your best interests.

9/14/2006 07:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon 9/14/2006 08:31:45 PM,

" I think you get back what you give out. Maybe thats why your agents don't appear to be committed to your best interests"

I somewhat agree with you because I give a rash of shit ;)

But, if get back what I give..How come about 2 times a month I get calls from RE agents wanting to know if I am going to sell my townhouse? Because they want that 6% on that nice transaction.

Anyways, we will have to agree to disagree.

Still waiting for my paycheck??
;)
SAS

9/14/2006 07:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

re: MLS # 2303337 in Short Hills/Millburn:

This house is terrible at any price. Whoever was thinking about buying this house--esp. during a market downturn--is not thinking clearly.

9/14/2006 08:50:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

tinybot,


May of us have said may times that it depends on the situation.. In our case we needed to buy a larger home to accomodate my mother due to an illness and death in the family.. Sometimes buying a home is a necessity.. Also.. We have said that if this is a Lifetime home that its ok to look now ..

9/15/2006 08:33:00 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home