Sunday, February 12, 2006

Price Reduced! 1/29 - 2/12

Welcome to another edition of Price Reduced!

For all the newcomers to this blog, Price Reduced! takes a look at a handful of significant price reductions across Northern NJ. The purpose of this exercise is to serve as proof that the Northern New Jersey real estate market has long since been overvalued and has started the long hard decline back to the mean.

These listings are in no way an endorsement by myself, nor do I believe they are a bargain or a value. Even reduced, I still believe these homes are still grossly overpriced.

With that, the listings please!

MLS# 2231371 - Hamburg, NJ
Previous Price $488,900
Current Price $388,900 (Price Reduced 20.5%)

MLS# 2219478 - Newark, NJ
Previous Price $224,900
Current Price $185,000 (Price Reduced 17.7%)

MLS# 2206673 - West Milford, NJ
Previous Price $1,190,000
Current Price $995,000 (Price Reduced 16.4%)

MLS# 2216603 - Kinnelon, NJ
Previous Price $797,000
Current Price $670,000 (Price Reduced 15.9%)

MLS# 2232513 - Bloomfield, NJ
Previous Price $587,500
Current Price $499,000 (Price Reduced 15.1%)

MLS# 2233936 - Montclair, NJ
Previous Price $1,695,000
Current Price $1,450,000 (Price Reduced 14.5%)

MLS# 2240103 - Scotch Plains, NJ
Previous Price $599,900
Current Price $515,000 (Price Reduced 14.2%)

MLS# 2222745 - Newton, NJ
Previous Price $389,900
Current Price $334,900 (Price Reduced 14.1%)

MLS# 2202084 - Montville, NJ
Previous Price $1,525,000 (Increased from OLP of $1,349,000)
Current Price $1,315,000 (Price Reduced 13.8%)

MLS# 2103593 - Mount Olive, NJ
Previous Price $289,900 (Reduced from $320,000)
Current Price $250,000 (Price Reduced 13.8%, 21.8% off OLP)

MLS# 2232784 - Elizabeth, NJ
Previous Price $220,000
Current Price $189,900 (Price Reduced 13.7%)

MLS# 2065407 - Millburn, NJ
Previous Price $2,895,000 (Reduced from $2,995,000)
Current Price $2,499,000 (Price Reduced $13.7%)

MLS# 2206230 - Union, NJ
Previous Price $299,999
Current Price $260,000 (Price Reduced 13.3%)

MLS# 2210539 - West Milford, NJ
Previous Price $1,150,000 (Reduced from $1,200,000)
Current Price $999,900 (Price Reduced 13.1%, 16.7% off OLP)

MLS# 2207980 - Somerville, NJ
Previous Price $789,000
Current Price $692,000 (Price Reduced 12.3%)

MLS# 2205109 - Hanover, NJ
Previous Price $569,900 (Reduced from $585,000)
Current Price $499,900 (Price Reduced 12.3%, 14.5% off OLP)

MLS# 2224108 - Parsippany, NJ
Previous Price $495,000
Current Price $435,000 (Price Reduced 12.1%)

MLS# 2204401 - Old Tappan, NJ
Previous Price $1,350,000
Current Price $1,195,000 (Price Reduced 11.5%)

MLS# 2226156 - Livingston, NJ
Previous Price $959,000 (Reduced from $1,059,000)
Current Price $849,000 (Price Reduced 11.5%, 19.8% off OLP)

Over the two week period covering 1/29 - 2/12, the prices on 1175 homes were reduced. The average reduction was 4% and the total dollar reduction was almost $26 million dollars.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

24 Comments:

Blogger landgrab said...

More good stuff, Grim.

But I wonder ... I'm not seeing price reductions as much in Bergen County.

Do you think because it's so close to NYC, we won't see nearly as many reductions? And will they be significant?

For instance ... will we see a home in Rutherford drop from 500k to 400k this summer?

2/12/2006 12:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim, I am a regular reader, the priced reduced section is cool, however sales vs. the price that people "ask" I say so what? I am not taking a big leap here in saying; that anyone who has bought a home in the North East or on the West coast (Vegas included) between 2001-until today is facing, in real terms; upwards of 30% losses in residential real estate...and the process has already started.

2/12/2006 01:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To put things into perspective which Grim always does, you need to know prices have come from. So go back to about 1998-2000 and look at comparables. prices went up 100% in this period easily.
So I ask did you get a 100% increase in income over this 5 year period? In most cases not.
So why should homeowners get 100% increase in 5 years. Don't give it to'em.
Give a reasonable appreciation rate of 5% a year off base year 1998 then do the math. You want to give the seller now all the 10 year appreciation in the future.

2/12/2006 02:03:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

OT but Hughes is back in the star ledger on housing affordability and property tax in NJ.
They discuss this FB in Kearny with a $4,000 mortgage payment and a $38,000 income.
Can you afford to live here?

Also, there is a cool piece that shows migration patterns into NJ and within NJ from IRS records.

2/12/2006 04:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So homeownership is worth losing sleep and worrying? NOT!
I figure lots of sleepless nights now and i the future for many homeowners in over their head.

You should buy what you can really afford. This woman cannot afford this.

2/12/2006 05:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here is how the scam works.
Been watching a house. first put on market at $550,000 after 2 months reduced to $460,000 but a similar house sold for $400,000 latter part of summer 2005.

Better do your homework. it's all a big scam.

2/12/2006 06:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim
I dont think we are going to get hit as bad as you think, peple who purchased home for 300k, 3 years ago are now valued at 500. with a 20% drop there your still up a 100;Homes still valued at 400k. In are area 20min outside of NYC we're never going to have a huge burst

2/12/2006 08:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

it is going to be the last ones that have no seat when the music stops.

also we have been working with clients and allot of the banks are moving allot of the jobs out of NYC to other areas. the top guys are moving all the support operations out and these are your mid level jobs that drive most of the market.

2/12/2006 08:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

On this one, in Short Hills:

MLS# 2065407 - Millburn, NJ
Previous Price $2,895,000 (Reduced from $2,995,000)
Current Price $2,499,000 (Price Reduced $13.7%)



The taxes for 2005 are $49,764! How insane does someone have to be to piss that much away every year? It's a nice house, but $50K a year in taxes?

Came on the market April 4, 2005.

2/12/2006 08:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

They discuss this FB in Kearny with a $4,000 mortgage payment and a $38,000 income.

That's a FB indeed!

2/12/2006 08:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grim, You have on the sidebar NJPOS house blog, I read it for the first time tonight, and literally couldn't stop laughing from the pictures and commentary by that blogger. thanks

2/13/2006 01:51:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

house valued at current prices $500,000?
What is a house truly worth?
it is worth ONLY what the highest bidder is willing to pay and the lowest asking price a REAL seller will take. When I say real seller it is someone that really has to sell.
Just because a similar house in the neighborhood sold for $500,000 does not mean the next sales price is $500,000 or more. it cluld be $400,000 or less.
It's all up to the buyers and real sellers.

2/13/2006 09:09:00 AM  
Blogger r patrick said...

So fort lee is bubble proof?

2/13/2006 09:30:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Nowhere is bubble proof.

2/13/2006 09:49:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Anyone up for a wager that the abysmal February sales number will be blamed on record snowfall and bad weather?

grim

2/13/2006 10:35:00 AM  
Blogger Richie said...

I think they will blame it on the Olympics.

2/13/2006 10:36:00 AM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

grim,

did you check out the nytimes blog today? they posted your survey of RE articles from th 80's/90's.

predictably, Damon Darlin (or whatever his name is) took it upon himself to predict that this time is different and RE won't crash.

2/13/2006 12:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can someone please explain what does "FB" means???

Thanks

2/13/2006 01:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The term "FB" is covered here:

http://www.housingbubblecasualty.com/

2/13/2006 01:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Skeptic wrote: "predictably, Damon Darlin (or whatever his name is) took it upon himself to predict that this time is different and RE won't crash."

Your comment reflects a tendency on this blog to just read/write/believe what you want and not pay attention to all sides of this complex story.

What good does it do to mis-represent what Damon wrote, when anyone can go to the NY Times blog and read for themselves what he REALLY wrote, which is:
"Saying it will collapse is a lot of fun, but how is making that point any different from real estate agents saying prices will never fall? Neither side has much to stand on. Will prices go down? Sure. Will some people lose their homes? Without a doubt, especially when 43 percent of first-time buyers last year made had no down payment. Will it be a catastrophe? There is no way to tell, but there is little yet evidence that suggests it will be."

2/13/2006 02:25:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

As a journalist, it's his job to take a neutral/unbiased position on the issue, which he does. Damon is less biased than many other real estate cheerleaders masquerading as journalists.

I think his summary was fair.

jb

2/13/2006 02:48:00 PM  
Blogger r patrick said...

Grim,
I have been looking at the Priced Reduced and Fort Lee ( where I live in an itty bitty apartment ) has never shown up.

Is it the Asian effect ( large interfamily and intercommunity undertable/private loans )

I would think at now asking 800k-1 mil for 1/2 a duplex we would be the most bubbly.

2/13/2006 06:32:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Grim,

My problem with Damon's blog is that he thinks we are cheerleading as though it is schadenfreude. I do not think people here on this blog or any of the bubble blog want this to end badly. (maybe some do) I have a problem with him characterizing the populace of the blogs as such.

Furthermore if you look at some of his recent posts and compare it to some of the more recent stuff posted on blogs you will see he is lifting ideas for his pieces. I think he is just purposely playing all of us to get a rise which he will use in a future blog.

2/13/2006 07:41:00 PM  
Blogger skep-tic said...

"What good does it do to mis-represent what Damon wrote, when anyone can go to the NY Times blog and read for themselves what he REALLY wrote, which is:
"Saying it will collapse is a lot of fun, but how is making that point any different from real estate agents saying prices will never fall? Neither side has much to stand on. Will prices go down? Sure. Will some people lose their homes? Without a doubt, especially when 43 percent of first-time buyers last year made had no down payment. Will it be a catastrophe? There is no way to tell, but there is little yet evidence that suggests it will be."

**Anon--I guess we just have diff't interpretations of the slant of this post. I think the evidence that we are in a bubble is obvious. you may not think so. Damon Darlin does not seem to be convinced either. I for one do not think this is objectivity on his part, given that the evidence is so overwhelming. but of course there is room to disagree

2/13/2006 11:02:00 PM  

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