Tuesday, March 21, 2006

At A Glance: Millburn

Millburn, NJ - Essex County

Millburn from City-Data

GSMLS Listings As of 3/21

Total Active Listings: 125
Up To $500,000: 4
$500,001 - $1,000,000: 27
$1,000,001 And Up: 94

Listing Activity Since 3/1
50 Added
5 Back on Market
23 Price Reductions
26 Under Contract
11 Sold
13 Expired
6 Withdrawn
2 Temporarily Withdrawn

February Sales Activity
Up To $500,000: 0
$500,001 - $1,000,000: 8
$1,000,001 And Up: 3
Sales Prices were 6.11% below Original List Prices

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

60 Comments:

Blogger grim said...

Would anyone be interested in seeing more of these "At a glance" style features?

In order to determine the next town for "At a glance" I'm going to take the first town that appears in the comments section.

jb

3/21/2006 08:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Rich In NorthNJ said...

Ridgewood - Bergen County

3/21/2006 08:44:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

East Hanover

3/21/2006 08:45:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hoboken

3/21/2006 08:49:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Rich,

I can do Ridgewood, but getting info from NJMLS is spotty at best.

I can do it based on Ridgewood properties listed on GSMLS, but it's not the full picture.

Just to give you an idea, GSMLS has 66 properties listed while NJMLS is showing 130. I believe there is some overlap between the two.

Let me know.

jb

3/21/2006 08:52:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi: Grim,

Would like to know about Townhouses as well.

Can you please list for Edison.Had been to one in North Edison LP 400,000
gave a lowball of 320,000.

Thanks,

KBR

3/21/2006 09:40:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

This one should be an eye opener for all those following the M3 debate.

(For all of those who think Senator Ron Paul is a 'kook', take a look at one of his newest bills)

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c109:H.R.4892.IH:

Sunshine in Monetary Policy Act

SEC. 2. M3 MONETARY AGGREGATE REQUIRED TO BE PUBLISHED WEEKLY.

(a) In General- Notwithstanding the announcement by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on November 10, 2005, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System shall continue, after March 22, 2006, to compile and to publish on a weekly basis the measure of the M3 monetary aggregate and the components of the M3 that are not included in the measure of the M2 monetary aggregate.


grim

3/21/2006 09:50:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Interesting choice in municipality. A couple years ago there was an article in the Star Ledger on how Millburn has the highest taxes. One house had a tax bill over $50,000/yr.

3/21/2006 09:52:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

No real thought about the choice. I was going through some data and Millburn (Short Hills) was there, so I posted it up.

I'll admit it is rather interesting to see more than 2 years inventory at the million and up mark (based on February sales and current inventory).

grim

3/21/2006 10:03:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Actually Millburn has much lower taxes than, say, its negighbor Maplewood. Cheaper by at least 50%.

3/21/2006 10:05:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Branchburg/Bridgewater - Somerset County

3/21/2006 10:10:00 AM  
Anonymous NJ Sucks said...

http://www.2000wave.com/printarticle.asp?id=mwo031706

Grim and Everybody

You !!!HAVE!!! to read this report. This compares the housing market over the last 20 years with very nice graphs

3/21/2006 10:10:00 AM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

What I meant was the highest tax bill for an individual homeowner. My mistake in phrasing it poorly. But could you imagine a tax bill that is over $50K?

3/21/2006 10:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Re: KBR who said "North Edison LP 400,000 gave a lowball of 320,000."

Perhaps the specific listing deserves a lowball.

However, trying to get 20% off list prices will only encourage people to post unrealistic list prices. It is much better (and fairer) to estimate the value of the house using either AVM's or e-appraisals, comparing sales prices of similar houses, replacement value analysis etc etc and then comparing it to the list price.

CNS

3/21/2006 10:35:00 AM  
Anonymous Rich In NorthNJ said...

Grim,

See what you can do for the others. My friend said he "help me" get "access" to the NJMLS!

But thanks for the offer!

3/21/2006 10:38:00 AM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

WSJ Editorial:

Jersey School Scam
March 21, 2006; Page A14

The last thing people want to hear in a high-tax state notorious for political corruption is that their tax dollars are being mismanaged. But according to a two-year probe of school superintendents by New Jersey's State Commission of Investigation, that's exactly what's going on in Tony Soprano country. No wonder there's a property-tax rebellion brewing there as in many places around the country.

The report -- "Taxpayers Beware: What You Don't Know Can Cost You" -- sampled 71 of New Jersey's more than 600 school districts and found a pattern of "questionable and excessive" practices that included boosting salaries and padding pensions surreptitiously and in ways that have cost unsuspecting taxpayers millions of dollars. A school chief in Ocean County was paid nearly $350,000, or 65% more than he reported to the Department of Education. A Camden official received $223,000, which included $43,000 in undisclosed bonuses, car expenses and an annuity. And a Bergen County superintendent received more than a half-million dollars in extra pay for unused sick time and other benefits.

According to the report, if these perks were disclosed at all they were in the minutiae of contracts rather than in reported salaries. "If a school board wants to pay a superintendent $300,000, fine," wrote the Newark Star-Ledger, a paper that typically favors higher taxes and spending. "But taxpayers shouldn't be told the salary is $200,000 and given no clue that the total package makes the compensation 50 percent higher."

That outrage is welcome, if also belated given that schools in New Jersey are mostly financed with local property taxes, which are among the highest anywhere and nearly double the national average. According to the latest Census data, average New Jersey property levies were $1,908 in 2002, well ahead of second-place New York ($1,760). They've since risen rapidly along with the real-estate boom -- enough so that both candidates in last year's race for governor promised to cut property taxes.

But Jerseyites shouldn't spend their refund checks anytime soon. New Governor Jon Corzine promised to increase property-tax rebates, but he's already backtracking. He's suddenly using phrases like "shared sacrifice," which means higher taxes for as many people as possible. Only two years ago, former Governor James McGreevey raised the top marginal income-tax rate to 8.97% from 6.37%, making it the fifth-highest in the country. New Jersey's revenues have grown by an average of more than 8% annually since 2002, but the politicians keep spending more: $28 billion last year, up from $20 billion in 2000 and $12 billion in 1990.

By the way, those absurd superintendent contracts were negotiated by school board members chosen in elections held in April, when no one votes. "If you think the superintendent contracts are bad," says Gregg Edwards, a former school board member who now runs New Jersey's Center for Policy Research, "wait until you get into the teachers contracts. And it's not just the money. It's the work rules."

The few who do bother to vote for school board members -- typical turnout is 10% -- tend to be union activists and others who have direct connections to the bureaucracy and no incentive to clean up this mess. If New Jersey is looking to reform, a good first step might be to elect school board members in November. The alternative is to keep getting scammed by these public-sector union contracts.

3/21/2006 10:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

chicago:
thanks for posting... i don't have online access to the opinionjournal.com.

3/21/2006 10:48:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't understand how inventory is rising but yet prices seem to still be increasing. Check out the Newark, NJ results from this website.

http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/

3/21/2006 10:49:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Anon,

The bottom of that page reads:

The numbers provided here are asking prices derived from MLS listings. Presumably, asking prices are correlated with sale prices and both are a function of home inventory, mortgage rates and lending conventions, the local economy, and (not insignificantly) market psychology. If you are looking for sale price statistics, check out the...

Rising asking prices are much different from rising sale prices. I've also noticed that median sales prices are becoming more volatile as sales volume is falling and the "mix" of homes being sold changes.

Going back through old sales data, there seemed to be a consistent mix at a town level up to about fall. Currenly, I'm seeing what can only be described as dramatic changes in mix due to reduced sales volumes.

You really need to aggregate up to a county (or even multi-county) level to begin to increase the sample size enough to minimize those mix changes at a town level.

Needless to say, median prices have been giving me a headache lately.

grim

3/21/2006 11:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, what the is up with these prices! Please check out MLS #: 2257297. Are you serious? The broker who priced that should be forced to live there in eternal hell.....

3/21/2006 11:23:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

Sellers can "ask" whatever they like. But if they truely wish to become "sellers", they'll need to start dropping prices because the pool of fools is starting to run dry..

jb

3/21/2006 11:32:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Re: Taxes

I've noticed that taxes in Montclair are far worse than Short Hills.

As for "Millburn" it's really a seperate town than "Short Hills" -- each has its own zip code, and a 4 BR house in Short Hills will have taxes about double a 4 BR house in "Millburn."

Millburn is basically tiny houses on tiny lots, and "Short Hills" has medium to large houses on medium to large lots.

Officially, "Short Hills" is part of Millburn township, but you'll know when you're driving through one or the other right away.

3/21/2006 11:54:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"But could you imagine a tax bill that is over $50K?"

Homes in Short Hills with taxes in that range are lavish, multi-million dollar homes, with large lots.

Here's one with taxes @ $41,000:

http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1053917632

$3.5 Million, 6 BR, 6.5 BA on over an acre.

Someone with that kind of cash is probably a CEO, and not worried too much about the $41K in taxes each year.

For 'normal' people though, that $41K is brutal in the extreme.

3/21/2006 12:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Please check out MLS #: 2257297. Are you serious? The broker who priced that should be forced to live there in eternal hell..."

Wow, a million bucks for a ranch that looks like it's worth $200K.

There are some very nice homes in Short Hills on the market right now for $1M, which is nice about rising inventory and increased buyer options...

But here's the easiset way to get a million dollar home: first, get a million dollars...

:-)

3/21/2006 12:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am not seeing any of those nice options...every $1 million house looks like a $500g house...but I am waiting :)

3/21/2006 12:32:00 PM  
Blogger njresident286 said...

Grim at some point could you do this for New Providence. I have been amazed how much the houses there have appreciated, especially in relation to what is considered nicer towns right next to it.

New Prov used to be a more blue colar town to live in with nice houses and a good school. Now the houses are basically the same price as Chatham, Summit, Berkley Heights.

All this while Springfield, which is just 2 towns over, has not appeciated as much. Springfield and New Prov are almost mirror images of each other.

3/21/2006 12:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I am not seeing any of those nice options...every $1 million house looks like a $500g house..."

This one is quite nice, with a large lot:

http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1054629267

It's been sitting for a long time, too, which is further evidence the market has tanked.

Last year, that house would have sold in 3 days, and someone would have added a 1,000 square foot addition.

3/21/2006 12:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'd love to see Mendham's stats. I think Mendham's one of the towns that won't see much of a dip in prices (I'm not a realtor or homeowner in Mendham), so I'm curious.
JP

3/21/2006 12:54:00 PM  
Anonymous trroll said...

anon: "This one is quite nice, with a large lot:"

Are you serious? Quite a nice one?
It might be nice but not for $1 million. This house should not be worth more then $400-500K. And it sits on less than 0.5 acre. I think we are loosing the perspective on monetary value of things. I do not know the rest of you here but for me $1 million is A LOT of money. And IMHO a NICE house like that one is definitely not worth it.

3/21/2006 01:01:00 PM  
Blogger chicagofinance said...

Anon 10:49AM:

Re sales price increases - I posted this elsewhere

"Typically, in this environment when you are at this stage of a real estate cycle [not seasonal, but rather the contraction phase after a long-run expansion], what you will experience is that median prices rise in the face of slowing demand. The reason? The bottom of the market doesn't sell at all. As a result, of course, what does sell are transactions invloving people who are less price sensitive and buying more expensive property.

simple example
1, 2, 3, 4, 5 - median is 3

1 doesn't sell - prices drop 10%
1.8, 2.7, 3.6, 4.5 - median is 3.15

Median prices rose - but it is a specious argument, because the market is weakening.

3/21/2006 01:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Montclair, Glen Ridge, Bloomfield

3/21/2006 01:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chicago: You make a good point. But aside from the median rising, list prices are rising (i.e., a comparable house that was $900g last year is now $1,050,000). THAT is what does not make sense....if supply is building, and demand is allegedly slowing, why are list prices being pushed up? Maybe a dumb question. Just thinking out loud here. Thanks.

3/21/2006 01:17:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

trroll,

very OT,

Any name recognition Trroll? If not I would not be surprised only a few thousand people work for CO at EWR. My wife is working mornings this bid anyway.

FYI, the NYT has an article today on airline employees and flight benefits.

3/21/2006 01:33:00 PM  
Blogger njresident286 said...

I think list prices are going up because a lot of people are trying to get out as high as possible. Also, when you start at 1,000,000 and drop it to 900,000, the buyer feels like they got a deal, when all along the seller only wanted 900,000 to begin with

3/21/2006 01:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Are you serious? Quite a nice one?
It might be nice but not for $1 million. This house should not be worth more then $400-500K. And it sits on less than 0.5 acre."


Recall that we were comparing a POS ranch for the same price.

This is a nice house, with a large lot. You may not think 1/3 acre is a large lot, but in this area (Millburn/Summit/Chatham) it's about double what most houses have.

Is it worth $1M? Relative to other similarly-prices homes on the market in that town, yes. Is it worth $1M to me, if I had $1M to spend on a home? No.

But for someone looking in this town, for a well-maintained 4BR with top schools, a good-sized lot, and 3 blocks walk to the train station, this house should sell in days.

It's not selling though...


"I think we are loosing the perspective on monetary value of things. I do not know the rest of you here but for me $1 million is A LOT of money. And IMHO a NICE house like that one is definitely not worth it."

A good point. My perspective is probably off, as I've been looking awhile, but to expect that house to drop to $500K, you'll be waiting a looooong time...

3/21/2006 01:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Atlas Van Lines helpfully posts their migration data, and people are leaving NJ:

http://www.atlasworldgroup.com/migration/

3/21/2006 01:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Median prices rose - but it is a specious argument, because the market is weakening."

So a useful metric might be: current price per square foot.

3/21/2006 01:50:00 PM  
Anonymous trroll said...

metroplexual,

I talked to my wife and the name did not ring any bells. She works evening shift this bid. And she only works part-time any way.

P.S. What's OT stands for?

3/21/2006 01:59:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

asking prices are becoming difficult to calculate. what potential buyers are doing today is comparing prices of similar properties to each other and assessing value. the top tier towns (summit, chatham, etc.) will always be a bit more impervious to market downturns because of why they're top tier towns to begin with, but they will be effected.

it's clear what's happening right now. well priced properties in nice towns are moving. everything else in the starter market is more or less languishing due to too high initial asking prices. once they drop once or twice you see some interest and sales.

3/21/2006 02:00:00 PM  
Blogger Metroplexual said...

Trroll,
OT=Off Topic. Did you check out the article?

3/21/2006 02:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No Value for money. Since you do not need any to buy something.

People will start realizing very soon how broke they really are in next few years.

3/21/2006 02:27:00 PM  
Blogger landgrab said...

OH, Wow, if this is a new feature, I love it!

I'm sure you'll be innundated with towns ... but as a buyer, I'd love to see

KEARNY
Rutherford
Clifton

3/21/2006 02:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is the Greatest Fool I've ever seen:

169 Myrtle Avenue, Millburn NJ
Asking: $799,000
Closed: $845,000 on Jan 22, 2006
MLS 2235619

http://pictures.gsmls.com/MediaDisplay/90/hr3541690-0.jpg

Went on the market in mid-January, and sold in a day, before the first open house even occurred.

No side yard, no back yard, no front yard.

This is a street with every house the same size, and all lots the same size (50x125), none have a back yard.

This is pure insanity, houses on this street sell for $550-600K, and in fact according to domania.com this very house sold for $560K in January 2005, 12 months before it sold this time.

The house has some fresh paint, and a new kitchen, some new tile on poorly laid out bathrooms, and some new carpeting. That's it.

Some sucker paid almost $300,000 for a new kitchen, some new paint, and new carpeting?

Check out domania.com, there's not one house on this street that has sold for over $700K, let alone $850K.

With idiots like this, it's no wonder the market has gone crazy these last few years.

This is indeed a FB, who is already upside down on this home, and will be upside down for the next decade at least...

3/21/2006 02:58:00 PM  
Blogger TigerNYC said...

Appreciate the info here. These rising prices still do not make sense. Probably just obnoxious brokers trying to propagate this market. Right?

Thank goodness they will be gone soon.....

3/21/2006 03:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chatham and Madison would be great.

Thanks

3/21/2006 03:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mahwah condos/townhouses. Paramus, Hasbrouk Heights, Ridgefield Park, Riveredge. I would appreciate it.

3/21/2006 03:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

warren, NJ

3/21/2006 04:06:00 PM  
Blogger JMW977 said...

Clifton, Little Falls, Verona

Thanks in advance!

3/21/2006 04:15:00 PM  
Blogger Richard said...

only higher interest rates and/or job loss is going to stop this runaway train. the public is far too stupid to look beyond the monthly payment. everything today is quick and dispensible.

3/21/2006 04:45:00 PM  
Blogger Richie said...

It's going to be atleast a couple of years before people realize what they did. When people live in their house for 5 years, and realize that they can't sell it for what they bought it for, reality slaps you in the face.

I think most people were counting on moving in, then moving up.

3/21/2006 04:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

RE: 169 Myrtle Avenue

That's essentially a 2005 sale, just 2 weeks into 2006.

3/21/2006 05:16:00 PM  
Blogger grim said...

Judging from the activity on this thread I'm going to try to make this a daily feature.

jb

3/21/2006 06:07:00 PM  
Blogger njresident286 said...

Jim you spoil us!

3/21/2006 06:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

$40,000 price drop:
309 Lupine Way, Short Hills
MLS 2251882
$989,000 => $949,000
Days on Market: 20

3/21/2006 07:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

sparta-sussex county (lake mohawk)

3/22/2006 05:44:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jersey City please.

Thanks,
ChrisXS

3/22/2006 08:10:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I second the Lake Mohawk, Sparta area. I was keeping my eye on this listing to see what it closed at....looks like the ultimate lowball! RD


Garden State M.L.S. Residential/Condo/Coop STATUS: S Media: 11
MLS #: 2070524 CO: Sussex TOWN: LAKE MOHAWK SPA (2814)
AD: 21 Rainbow Trail ZIP: 07871- LP: $2,390,000
COMPARABLE / LISTING INFORMATION

SP: $ 1,500,000 UCD: 12/20/2005 CD: 3/20/2006 DOM: 334 ADM: 249 LD: 4/20/2005
OLP: $ 2,490,000 WD: (none) XD: 2/28/2006

3/22/2006 11:38:00 AM  
Blogger grim said...

At just about a million dollars under OLP (Original List Price), you might be right.

3/22/2006 12:10:00 PM  
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